Relative Price Dispersion Research Articles

Network structure of the economy and the propagation of monetary shocks: The case of Russia

We calibrate a network model and monetary shocks based on empirical data from input-output tables for the Russian economy. We examine various aspects of the propagation of monetary shocks, such as the dispersion of relative prices and the local peak values of the aggregated price index achieved during the convergence to the new equilibrium. We show that these developments depend significantly on the way new money is injected into the economy.

Inflation, Price Dispersion, and Welfare: The Role of Consumer Search

In standard macroeconomic models, the costs of inflation are tightly linked to the price dispersion of identical goods. Therefore, understanding how price dispersion empirically relates to inflation is crucial for welfare analysis. In this paper, I study the relationship between steady-state inflation and price dispersion for a cross section of U.S. retail products using scanner data. By comparing prices of items with the same barcode, my measure of relative price dispersion controls for product heterogeneity, overcoming an important challenge in the literature. I document a new fact: price dispersion of identical goods increases steeply around zero inflation and becomes flatter as inflation increases, displaying an Upsilon-shaped pattern. Current sticky-price models are inconsistent with this finding. I develop a menu-cost model with idiosyncratic productivity shocks and sequential consumer search that reproduces the new fact and exhibits realistic price-setting behavior. In the model, inflation-induced price dispersion increases shoppers' incentives to search for low prices and thus competition among retailers. The positive welfare-maximizing inflation rate optimally trades off the efficiency gains from lower markups and the resources spent on search.

Inflation, oil price volatility and monetary policy

In a fully micro-founded New Keynesian framework, we characterize an analytical relationship between average inflation and oil price volatility by solving the rational expectations equilibrium of the model up to second order of accuracy. The model shows that higher oil price volatility induces higher levels of average inflation. We also show that when oil has low substitutability in the production function, the higher the weight the central bank assigns to inflation in the policy rule, the lower the level of average inflation is. The analytical solution further indicates that, for a given level of oil price volatility, average inflation is higher when marginal costs are convex in oil prices, the Phillips Curve is convex, and the degree of relative price dispersion is higher. The evolution of inflation during the 70s and 80s is consistent with the prediction of the model.

Economic Benefits of Product Recommendations to Consumers: Estimates from a Field Experiment

Do personalized offerings enabled by big data only bring economic benefits to firms but not to consumers? In this paper, we seek to address this question by examining a particular category of personalized offerings provided by algorithmic product recommendation systems. While the economic value of algorithmic product recommendations to firms is mostly understood, their benefits to consumers are not well quantified in the literature. We conduct a randomized field experiment on an apparel retailer’s website in the US to estimate the benefits of recommendations to consumers. We find that recommendations helped consumers discover lower-priced products on the website, which results in a higher probability of product purchase (lower likelihood of failed search efforts) and a lower price of purchased products. Specifically, an additional recommended product page view due to recommendations leads to a 15 percent increase in purchase probability and a $1.59 decrease in the purchase price. The product recommendations are particularly beneficial to consumers for product categories with a higher relative price dispersion and a higher proportion of niche products. Due to these benefits, consumers substitute 0.14 keyword search page views and 0.63 product category page views for each recommended product page view under recommendations. The recommendations generated a surplus of $56,631 (3.8 percent of the total sales), two-thirds of which the retailer captured as additional revenue, and the remaining one-third the consumers as price savings.

Effect of inflation uncertainty on price dispersion in Iran

This paper studies the inflation relationship analysis and inflation uncertainty with relative price’ dispersion in Iran by using the ordinary minimum squares method, during monthly data 1991:4-2012:12. In this paper, we used the GARCH technique in order to modeling and measuring the inflation uncertainty variable. The results show that inflation uncertainty increasing leads to increased relative price dispersion. Also unexpected inflation regardless of being positive or negative increases the relative price dispersion considerably, but the unexpected inflation decomposition to two positive and negative components and lack of considering them in the equation showed that each component is in a high significant level and cannot be considered for symmetric effect of positive or negative unexpected inflation. Corporations change their price against the positive unexpected inflation alternatively in responding to the inflation shocks and consequently the price will be fluctuated for reaching the balance strictly, therefore positive unexpected inflation cases have been increasing in relative price dispersion. In the other hand, corporations have no tendency for changing the goods’ price against the negative unexpected inflation. Also according to the results, inflation variable coefficient is significant from the statistical viewpoint and this means that this variable increases the relative dispersion considerably.

Comment on “Why Has Japan Failed to Escape from Deflation?”

Understanding the price dynamics is always at the heart of studies on monetary policy. If prices are flexible, there is no need for monetary policy as a stabilization tool. If not, central banks should offer some nominal anchor so that welfare costs stemming from relative price dispersion should be reduced. Watanabe and Watanabe (2018) conduct careful analyses using micro data. Two main conclusions are: a simple menu cost model can explain the price developments in Japan well in that “there is a negative correlation between trend inflation and the share of items whose rate of price change is near zero,”1 and the “inflation norm” is too low in Japan. Watanabe and Watanabe provide comprehensive empirical facts to support these two conclusions. It also merits attention that the observed empirical regularities are replicated with simulations using a simple menu cost model. Structural interpretations of the empirical findings are offered albeit indirectly via model simulation. Not only do Watanabe and Watanabe offer convincing facts in understanding the Japanese economy from the view point of positive analysis, but also the findings in their paper have an immediate policy implication: It is not easy for Japan to attain an inflation target of 2%. Papers with important facts and significant policy implications are always good and highly appreciated. Watanabe and Watanabe's paper is one of these good papers. Thus, I do not have any particular comments to oppose their main conclusions. Let me comment on what we do not know from the data, and the policy implication. We do not know the markups in individual goods. In their menu cost model, nominal rigidities are favored as the way to explain price developments in Japan. This conclusion is mainly supported by the analyses in Sections 2.2 and 2.3 about the flattening of the reduced-form Phillips curve. However, we still cannot conclude that this less clearer relationship between inflation and unemployment rates is as a result of higher nominal rigidities possibly due to menu costs, since we cannot observe marginal costs. The relationship between inflation and unemployment rates can be just a reduced-form one. In the language of the New Keynesian model, unemployment or the output gap must be structurally related to markups. Otherwise, a causal argument is not possible. I am not fully sure whether such a relationship is stemming from menu costs or higher real rigidities around zero inflation rates. Real rigidities arise when marginal costs are sticky or marginal revenues are flexible. The former can be caused by habit formation in consumption, endogenous capacity utilization or investment growth adjustment costs as included in the canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model a la Christiano et al. (2005), while the latter can emerge with a kinked demand curve as examined in the first-generation New Keynesian Model a la Kimball (1995). In order to identify the causes of the less clearer relationship between inflation and unemployment rates, it would be ideal if we can use the marginal cost data as examined in Eichenbaum et al. (2011). The inability to observe markups means that a careful interpretation of the analyses in Watanabe and Watanabe's section 4 is required. If the relationship between unemployment and markup is not stable nor structural, increasing real rigidities around zero inflation rates can explain the fact that “price stickiness as measured by the share of unchanged items increases as the inflation rate declines from a positive value to zero.” More stickiness around lower inflation rates should imply higher welfare costs stemming from relative price dispersions. On the other hand, menu costs are small near zero inflation rates. Besides the problems due to the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, should the central bank really care about inflation developments near zero inflation rates? This point is related to the conclusion made by Nakamura et al. (2016) that “the main costs of inflation in the New Keynesian model are completely elusive in the data. This implies that the strong conclusions about optimality of low inflation rates reached by researchers using models of this kind need to be reassessed.”

Inflation and the Dispersion of Relative Prices: A Case for 4 % Solution

Unlike earlier literature that documented positive association between inflation and the dispersion of relative prices over time, the empirical evidence from this study suggests that the relative price dispersion increases in response to the deviation of inflation from certain threshold/target level in either direction rather than inflation per se. The striking feature of the empirical evidence from United States and Japan is that the inflation rate at which the dispersion of relative prices is minimised turn out to be 4%; hence, supporting the proposal of 4% inflation target for both the countries.

Regional Relative Price Disparities and Their Driving Forces

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)I.INTRODUCTIONThis paper studies relative price level convergence by utilizing panels of major cities in Korea. While substantial research continues to evaluate price level disparities in international context, there have been relatively lack of successful empirical studies investigating the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) within a single currency area. To gain further insight for the sources of considerable and persistent price level dispersion, we employ formal statistical techniques to test whether intranational price level differentials tend to shrink over time with a special emphasis on their heterogeneous transitional behavior. Our empirical analysis explores potential explanations for why there is substantial deviation from PPP or markedly slow convergence by considering disaggregated CPI data classified according to consumption expenditure in addition to extant factors that are attributable to the PPP deviations, such as transportation costs, income, and input prices.The importance of understanding both time-series and cross-sectional properties of price dispersion measures has been underscored by researchers as well as policymakers. Since PPP has been a key building block of most open-economy macroeconomic models as the link between exchange rate and relative price levels, empirical validity of PPP is a long-standing issue. Ever since Rogoff (1996) articulated the PPP puzzle, a large number of papers have studied price level convergence with international data and potential sources of PPP deviation or slow price level convergence.1 This has also brought about interest in testing convergence in relative city price within a country to better understand difference in prices across locations, Beck, Hubrich, and Marcellino (2009), Cecchetti, Mark, and Sonora (2002), Parsley and Wei (1996), and Sonora (2008), to name a few. Unlike international data, it may be reasonable to conjecture that major cities of a country share relatively similar characteristics, and thus relative price dispersion is unlikely to be substantial. However, the conclusion regarding long-run patterns of price disparities across cities is somewhat mixed, whereas PPP clearly is violated in the short run in those studies. Interestingly, some studies argue that price level convergence rates within a country are somewhat longer than those estimated with international data (Cecchetti, Mark, and Sonora, 2002).Despite the fact that the deviation from PPP is well documented in international data and even within a country, there has not been an extensive study rigorously investigating the possibility of PPP among major cities in Korea.2 This motivates us to examine the long-run behavior of relative price level dispersion with a special emphasis on heterogeneous transition dynamics of individual prices. In addition, with disaggregated CPI data, the paper scrutinizes dynamic patterns of price disparities for consumption expenditure categories classified according to purpose.3 Our research has primarily three goals. First, we investigate whether there exist persistent regional price level disparities, and, if so, assess the extent of deviations from PPP. In addition, their dynamic patterns are also examined. Second, and more importantly, this paper aims to provide a better understanding of main factors that drive substantial price level disparities across cities. Third, as overall price divergence does not necessarily exclude the possibility of club convergence, we explore whether there is a subgroup of cities that share similar aspects in terms of socioeconomic variables and exhibit price level convergence among the member cities.To draw attention to the importance of regional price level dispersion, we first document some salient features of intercity price differentials.4 Some basic descriptive statistics of price differential variability and mean absolute log price differential indicate that there is little evidence of price level convergence. …

Regional Relative Price Disparities and Their Driving Forces

This paper studies the long-run behavior of relative price dispersion among cities in Korea with a special emphasis on heterogeneous transitional patterns of price level dynamics. Formal statistical tests indicate considerable evidence for rejecting the null of relative price level convergence among the majority of cities over the sample period of 1985-2015. The analysis of gravity model suggests that the effect of transportation costs on intercity price level differentials is limited, while other socioeconomic factors, such as income, input factor prices, demographic structure, and housing price growth, play key roles in accounting for persistent regional price level disparities. Individual price levels are found to be better explained by a multiple-component model, and the deviations from PPP may be attributed to distinct stochastic common trends that are characterized by income and demographic structure.

Relative Price Dispersion and Inflation: Evidence for the UK and the US

Abstract One potential real effect of inflation is its influence on the dispersion of relative prices in the economy which affects economic efficiency and aggregate output. Using a novel data set for the US and UK and a VARMA asymmetric bivariate GARCH-M model of inflation and relative price dispersion, we test for the effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty on relative price dispersion. We obtain two main results: First, inflation affects relative price dispersion positively in the US supporting the menu costs model and negatively in the UK supporting the monetary search model. Second, there is no evidence for the role of inflation uncertainty in explaining relative price dispersion, either for the US or the UK. Relative Preisunterschiede und Inflation: Evidenz fur Grosbritannien und die Vereinigten Staaten Zusammenfassung Ein potentieller realwirtschaftlicher Effekt von Inflation ist ihr Einfluss auf die Verteilung der relativen Preise in einer Volkswirtschaft. Dies beeinflusst wiederum die okono...

Relative Price Dispersion: Evidence and Theory

Relative price dispersion refers to persistent differences in the price that different retailers set for one particular good relative to the price they set for other goods. Relative price dispersion accounts for 30 percent of the overall variance of prices at which the same good is sold during the same week and in the same market. Relative price dispersion can be rationalized as the consequence of a pricing strategy used by sellers to discriminate between high-valuation buyers who need to make all of their purchases in one store, and low-valuation buyers who are able to purchase different items in different stores. (JEL D83, L11, L21, L81)

Relative Price Dispersion: Evidence and Theory

Relative Price Dispersion: Evidence and Theory

Optimal discretionary monetary policy in a micro-founded model with a zero lower bound on nominal interest rate

This paper investigates optimal discretionary monetary policy under the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate (ZLB) in the case of a distorted steady state due to monopoly and taxation. Solving a fully nonlinear micro-founded (FNL) model using a global method, I find that the central bank in a more distorted economy would cut the interest rate less aggressively under a particularly adverse demand shock. This occurs because inflation and nominal interest rates are higher on average, making the ZLB less likely to bind and causing the economy to escape from the ZLB sooner. However, the social planner would choose the optimal inflation rate of approximately zero. The result emerges because the unconditional benefit of avoiding the ZLB is not big enough to offset the cost of higher relative price dispersion when inflation is significantly positive. In addition, I show that the conventional linear-quadratic (LQ) method is inaccurate in the case of a sufficiently distorted steady state.

Asymmetric Dispersion of Relative Prices and Inflation

Asymmetric Dispersion of Relative Prices and Inflation

Bifurcation in Perturbation Analysis:Calvo Pricing Examples

In recent macro models with staggered price and wage settings, the presence of variables such as relative price and wage dispersion is prevalent, which leads to the source of bifurcations. In this paper, we illustrate how to detect the existence of a bifurcation in stylized macroeconomic models with Calvo (J Monet Econ 12(3):383---398, 1983) pricing. Following the general approach of Judd (Numerical methods in economics, 1998), we employ l'Hospital's rule to characterize the first-order dynamics of relative price distortion in terms of its higher-order derivatives. We also show that, as in the usual practice in the literature, the bifurcation can be eliminated through renormalization of model variables. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the second-order approximate solutions under this renormalization and under bifurcations can differ significantly.

Inflation, Relative Prices and Nominal Rigidities

This paper examines the distribution of Belgian consumer prices and its interaction with aggregate inflation over the period June 1976-September 2000. Given the fat-tailed nature of this distribution, both classical and robust measures of location, scale and skewness are presented. We found a positive short-run impact of the skewness of relative prices on aggregate inflation, irrespective of the average inflation rate. The dispersion of relative prices has also a positive impact on aggregate inflation in the short run and this impact is significantly lower in the sub-sample starting in 1988 than in the pre-1988 sub-sample, suggesting that the prevailing monetary policy regime has a substantial effect on this coefficient. The chronic right skewness of the distribution, revealed by the robust measures, is positively cointegrated with aggregate inflation, suggesting that it is largely dependent on the inflationary process itself and would disappear at zero inflation. These results have three important implications for monetary policy. First, as to the transmission of monetary policy, our results are in line with the predictions of menu cost models and therefore suggest that this type of friction can be an important factor behind the short run non-neutrality of monetary policy. Second, as to the design of robust estimators of core inflation, economic arguments based on menu cost models tend to highlight the importance of the absence of bias. We have proposed an unbiased estimator by taking the time-varying degree of chronic right skewness explicitly into account. Third, as to the optimal rate of inflation, the chronic right skewness found in the data provides no argument against price stability, as it appears as an endogenous response of optimising price setters and would disappear when targeting a zero inflation rate. This conclusion contrasts sharply with the implications of the exogenously assumed downward rigidity of Tobin (1972), which would justify targeting a sufficiently positive inflation rate in order to facilitate the adjustment of relative prices. Our empirical findings contradict the latter type of downward rigidity which implies a negative correlation between skewness and inflation. Therefore, the cross-sectional properties of Belgian inflation data do not provide strong arguments against a price stability-oriented monetary policy, such as the one pursued by the Eurosystem.

Welfare-Based Optimal Monetary Policy with Unemployment and Sticky Prices: A Linear-Quadratic Framework

In this paper, we derive a linear-quadratic model for monetary policy analysis that is consistent with sticky prices and search and matching frictions in the labor market. We show that the second-order approximation to the welfare of the representative agent depends on inflation and "gaps" that involve current and lagged unemployment. Our approximation makes explicit how the costs of fluctuations are generated by the presence of search frictions. These costs are distinct from the costs associated with relative price dispersion and fluctuations in consumption that appear in standard new Keynesian models. We use the model to analyze optimal monetary policy under commitment and discretion and to show that the structural characteristics of the labor market have important implications for optimal policy.

Welfare-Based Optimal Monetary Policy with Unemployment and Sticky Prices: A Linear-Quadratic Framework

We derive a linear-quadratic model that is consistent with sticky prices and search and matching frictions in the labor market. We show that the second-order approximation to the welfare of the representative agent depends on inflation and “gaps” that involve current and lagged unemployment. Our approximation makes explicit how welfare costs are generated by the presence of search frictions. These costs are distinct from the costs associated with relative price dispersion and fluctuations in consumption that appear in standard new Keynesian models. We show the labor market structure has important implications for optimal monetary policy. (JEL E24, E31, E52)

Inflation and the Divergence of Relative Prices: Evidence from a Cointegration Analysis

The relation between inflation and RPV plays a prominent role in explaining the costs of inflation. This study investigates whether the CPI subcategories drift apart more over a period of high inflation rates than during one of low inflation. The wider dispersion of the subcategories is reflected in an increasing number of common stochastic trends in the system of sub price indices. The results for US data as well as for cross-country comparisons indicate that the influence of inflation on the dispersion of relative prices cannot be revealed by counting cointegrating relations. Thus, the number of stochastic trends or cointegrating relations is not a reliable indicator for the distorting effect of inflation on the dispersion of relative prices.

Inflation and the Distribution of Relative Prices: The Role of Productivity and Money Supply Shocks

This paper examines the role of aggregate productivity and money supply shocks in determining the relationship between inflation and the distribution of relative commodity prices. I estimate a restricted VAR that includes aggregate variables and individual commodity prices and compute the cross-sectional distribution of the dynamic responses of commodity prices to these aggregate shocks. The findings indicate that both shocks lead to positive correlation between inflation and the dispersion of relative prices and that the response of prices across commodities is not uniform, even in the long run.