Disease Progression In Models Research Articles

Evaluating the Impact of Retinal Vessel Segmentation Metrics on Retest Reliability in a Clinical Setting: A Comparative Analysis Using AutoMorph.

Current research on artificial intelligence-based fundus photography biomarkers has demonstrated inconsistent results. Consequently, we aimed to evaluate and predict the test-retest reliability of retinal parameters extracted from fundus photography. Two groups of patients were recruited for the study: an intervisit group (n = 28) to assess retest reliability over a period of 1 to 14days and an intravisit group (n = 44) to evaluate retest reliability within a single session. Using AutoMorph, we generated test and retest vessel segmentation maps; measured segmentation map agreement via accuracy, sensitivity, F1 score and Jaccard index; and calculated 76 metrics from each fundus image. The retest reliability of each metric was analyzed in terms of the Spearman correlation coefficient, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), and relative percentage change. A linear model with the input variables contrast-to-noise-ratio and fractal dimension, chosen by a P-value-based backward selection process, was developed to predict the median percentage difference on retest per image based on image-quality metrics. This model was trained on the intravisit dataset and validated using the intervisit dataset. In the intervisit group, retest reliability varied between Spearman correlation coefficients of 0.34 and 0.99, ICC values of 0.31 to 0.99, and mean absolute percentage differences of 0.96% to 223.67%. Similarly, in the intravisit group, the retest reliability ranged from Spearman correlation coefficients of 0.55 and 0.96, ICC values of 0.40 to 0.97, and mean percentage differences of 0.49% to 371.23%. Segmentation map accuracy between test and retest never dropped below 97%; the mean F1 scores were 0.85 for the intravisit dataset and 0.82 for the intervisit dataset. The best retest was achieved with disc-width regarding the Spearman correlation coefficient in both datasets. In terms of the Spearman correlation coefficient, the worst retests of the intervisit and intravisit groups were tortuosity density and artery tortuosity density, respectively. The intravisit group exhibited better retest reliability than the intervisit group (P < 0.001). Our linear model, with the two independent variables contrast-to-noise ratio and fractal dimension predicted the median retest reliability per image on its validation dataset, the intervisit group, with an R2 of 0.53 (P < 0.001). Our findings highlight a considerable volatility in the reliability of some retinal biomarkers. Improving retest could allow disease progression modeling in smaller datasets or an individualized treatment approach. Image quality is moderately predictive of retest reliability, and further work is warranted to understand the reasons behind our observations better and thus ensure consistent retest results.

Omics Studies in CKD: Diagnostic Opportunities and Therapeutic Potential.

Omics technologies have significantly advanced the prediction and therapeutic approaches for chronic kidney disease (CKD) by providing comprehensive molecular insights. This is a review of the current state and future prospects of integrating biomarkers into the clinical practice for CKD, aiming to improve patient outcomes by targeted therapeutic interventions. In fact, the integration of genomic, transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic data has enhanced our understanding of CKD pathogenesis and identified novel biomarkers for an early diagnosis and targeted treatment. Advanced computational methods and artificial intelligence (AI) have further refined multi-omics data analysis, leading to more accurate prediction models for disease progression and therapeutic responses. These developments highlight the potential to improve CKD patient care with a precise and individualized treatment plan .

Spike and Slab Regression for Nonstationary Gaussian Linear Mixed Effects Modeling of Rapid Disease Progression

ABSTRACTSelect measures of social and environmental determinants of health (referred to as “geomarkers”), predict rapid lung function decline in cystic fibrosis (CF), defined as a prolonged decline relative to patient and/or center‐level norms. The extent to which hyper‐localization, defined as increasing the spatiotemporal precision of geomarkers, aids in prediction of rapid lung decline remains unclear. Linear mixed effects (LME) models with specialized covariance functions have been used for predicting rapid lung function decline, but there are few options to properly incorporate spatial correlation into the covariance functions while inducing simultaneous variable selection. Our innovative Bayesian model uses a spike and slab prior for simultaneous variable selection and offers additional advantages when coupled with nonstationary Gaussian LME modeling. This model also incorporates spatial correlation through an additional random effect term that accounts for spatial correlation based on ZIP code distances. We validated the model with simulations and applied it to real CF data from a Midwestern CF Center. We demonstrate how a combination of demographic, clinical, and geomarker variables can be selected as optimal predictors using Bayesian false discovery rate controlling rule. Our results indicate that incorporating spatiotemporal effects and geomarkers into this novel Bayesian stochastic LME model enhances the dynamic prediction of rapid CF disease progression.

T1-weighted MRI texture analysis in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients stratified by the D50 progression model.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, a progressive neurodegenerative disease, presents challenges in predicting individual disease trajectories due to its heterogeneous nature. This study explores the application of texture analysis on T1-weighted MRI in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, stratified by the D50 disease progression model. The D50 model, which offers a more nuanced representation of disease progression than traditional linear metrics, calculates the sigmoidal curve of functional decline and provides independent quantifications of disease aggressiveness and accumulation. In this research, a representative cohort of 116 patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis was studied using the D50 model and texture analysis on MRI images. Texture analysis, a technique used for quantifying voxel intensity patterns in MRI images, was employed to discern alterations in brain tissue associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. This study examined alterations of the texture feature autocorrelation across sub-groups of patients based on disease accumulation, aggressiveness and the first site of onset, as well as in direct regressions with accumulation/aggressiveness. The findings revealed distinct patterns of the texture-derived autocorrelation in grey and white matter, increase in bilateral corticospinal tract, right hippocampus and left temporal pole as well as widespread decrease within motor and extra-motor brain regions, of patients stratified based on their disease accumulation. Autocorrelation alterations in grey and white matter, in clusters within the left cingulate gyrus white matter, brainstem, left cerebellar tonsil grey matter and right inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus, were also negatively associated with disease accumulation in regression analysis. Otherwise, disease aggressiveness correlated with only two small clusters, within the right superior temporal gyrus and right posterior division of the cingulate gyrus white matter. The findings suggest that texture analysis could serve as a potential biomarker for disease stage in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, with potential for quick assessment based on using T1-weighted images.

Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic analysis of geographic atrophy lesion area in patients receiving pegcetacoplan treatment or sham.

Pegcetacoplan is a complement C3/C3b inhibitor indicated for the treatment of geographic atrophy (GA). A population pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) analysis of pegcetacoplan used GA lesion area measurements from three clinical studies to determine the effect of pegcetacoplan exposure on GA progression. A base disease progression model was developed using data from sham-treated eyes and untreated fellow eyes, followed by treatment effect assessment in dose-response and PK/PD models. In total, 1501 patients from FILLY (NCT02503332), OAKS (NCT03525613), and DERBY (NCT03525600) received intravitreal pegcetacoplan 15 mg monthly or every other month (EOM) or sham treatment monthly or EOM and were included in the population analysis of lesion area. Disease progression over time was adequately described as linear-with-time over the 24-month maximal study duration. Disease-specific covariates associated with slower lesion growth were unilateral, unifocal, and subfoveal GA lesions and >20 intermediate or large drusen groups (≥63 μm) at baseline. The dose-response model estimated 0.80-fold (95% CI: 0.75, 0.84) and 0.83-fold (95% CI: 0.78, 0.87) reductions in GA lesion growth rate with pegcetacoplan monthly and EOM, respectively, versus sham. A relationship between vitreous humor concentration and GA lesion growth rate was quantified as 2.6% per unit of log-transformed vitreous pegcetacoplan concentration in the PK/PD model. PK/PD predictions of treatment effect based on exposure (pegcetacoplan monthly: 0.80 [90% CI: 0.77, 0.84]; pegcetacoplan EOM: 0.83 [90% CI: 0.80, 0.86]) were consistent with predictions based on dose response. These results support the benefit of pegcetacoplan administered monthly or EOM in slowing GA lesion growth.

Characterization of patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy across previously developed health states.

Project HERCULES has developed a natural history model (NHM) of disease progression in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) that comprises eight ordered health states (two ambulatory states, one transfer state indicating increased caregiver burden in which patients cannot walk/run 10m or rise from floor but can still support their own weight, and five non-ambulatory states). The current study used data from nine sources (clinical trial placebo arms, one real-world dataset, and three natural history datasets) to further characterize patients with DMD according to these health states. The study included 1,173 patients across 5,306‬ visits. Patients were on average older and exhibited worse ambulatory, pulmonary, upper limb, and cardiac functions with each successive health state. Mean±SE ages increased monotonically across health states, starting with 8.47±0.07 for early ambulatory, 10.86±0.13 for late ambulatory, 11.65±0.35 for transfer state, and ranging from 13.17±0.32 to 16.84±0.37 for the non-ambulatory states. North Star Ambulatory Assessment (NSAA) total score, which measures motor function and ranges from 34 (best) to 0 (worst), was 23.7 (interquartile range [IQR]: 20-30) for early ambulatory patients, 12.7 (IQR: 9-16) for late ambulatory patients, and 3.9 (IQR: 2-5) for transfer patients. Pulmonary function as measured by mean±SE of forced vital capacity percent predicted (FVC%p) was 94.5±0.8 for early ambulatory, 89.1±1.4 for late ambulatory, and 80.2±2.8 for transfer states, and decreased from 77.2±1.7 to 20.6±1.6 across the five non-ambulatory health states. In summary, these findings further characterize health states and their interpretation in economic modeling and decision-making in DMD management.

Delineating three distinct spatiotemporal patterns of brain atrophy in Parkinson's disease.

The clinical manifestation of Parkinson's disease exhibits significant heterogeneity in the prevalence of non-motor symptoms and the rate of progression of motor symptoms, suggesting that Parkinson's disease can be classified into distinct subtypes. In this study, we aimed to explore this heterogeneity by identifying a set of subtypes with distinct patterns of spatiotemporal trajectories of neurodegeneration. We applied Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn), an unsupervised machine learning algorithm that combined disease progression modelling with clustering methods, to cortical and subcortical neurodegeneration visible on 3 T structural MRI of a large cross-sectional sample of 504 patients and 279 healthy controls. Serial longitudinal data were available for a subset of 178 patients at the 2-year follow-up and for 140 patients at the 4-year follow-up. In a subset of 210 patients, concomitant Alzheimer's disease pathology was assessed by evaluating amyloid-β concentrations in the CSF or via the amyloid-specific radiotracer 18F-flutemetamol with PET. The SuStaIn analysis revealed three distinct subtypes, each characterized by unique patterns of spatiotemporal evolution of brain atrophy: neocortical, limbic and brainstem. In the neocortical subtype, a reduction in brain volume occurred in the frontal and parietal cortices in the earliest disease stage and progressed across the entire neocortex during the early stage, although with relative sparing of the striatum, pallidum, accumbens area and brainstem. The limbic subtype represented comparative regional vulnerability, which was characterized by early volume loss in the amygdala, accumbens area, striatum and temporal cortex, subsequently spreading to the parietal and frontal cortices across disease stage. The brainstem subtype showed gradual rostral progression from the brainstem extending to the amygdala and hippocampus, followed by the temporal and other cortices. Longitudinal MRI data confirmed that 77.8% of participants at the 2-year follow-up and 84.0% at the 4-year follow-up were assigned to subtypes consistent with estimates from the cross-sectional data. This three-subtype model aligned with empirically proposed subtypes based on age at onset, because the neocortical subtype demonstrated characteristics similar to those found in the old-onset phenotype, including older onset and cognitive decline symptoms (P < 0.05). Moreover, the subtypes correspond to the three categories of the neuropathological consensus criteria for symptomatic patients with Lewy pathology, proposing neocortex-, limbic- and brainstem-predominant patterns as different subgroups of α-synuclein distributions. Among the subtypes, the prevalence of biomarker evidence of amyloid-β pathology was comparable. Upon validation, the subtype model might be applied to individual cases, potentially serving as a biomarker to track disease progression and predict temporal evolution.

Clustering-aided prediction of outcomes in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

BackgroundBlood biomarkers predictive of the progression of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) would be of value for research and clinical practice. We used data from the IPF-PRO Registry to investigate whether the addition of “omics” data to risk prediction models based on demographic and clinical characteristics improved prediction of the progression of IPF.MethodsThe IPF-PRO Registry enrolled patients with IPF at 46 sites across the US. Patients were followed prospectively. Median follow-up was 27.2 months. Prediction models for disease progression included omics data (proteins and microRNAs [miRNAs]), demographic factors and clinical factors, all assessed at enrollment. Data on proteins and miRNAs were included in the models either as raw values or based on clusters in various combinations. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) Cox regression was applied for time-to-event composite outcomes and logistic regression with L1 penalty was applied for binary outcomes assessed at 1 year. Model performance was assessed using Harrell’s C-index (for time-to-event outcomes) or area under the curve (for binary outcomes).ResultsData were analyzed from 231 patients. The models based on demographic and clinical factors, with or without omics data, were the top-performing models for prediction of all the time-to-event outcomes. Relative changes in average C-index after incorporating omics data into models based on demographic and clinical factors ranged from 1.7 to 3.2%. Of the blood biomarkers, surfactant protein-D, serine protease inhibitor A7 and matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) were among the top predictors of the outcomes. For the binary outcomes, models based on demographics alone and models based on demographics plus omics data had similar performances. Of the blood biomarkers, CC motif chemokine 11, vascular cell adhesion protein-1, adiponectin, carcinoembryonic antigen and MMP-9 were the most important predictors of the binary outcomes.ConclusionsWe identified circulating protein and miRNA biomarkers associated with the progression of IPF. However, the integration of omics data into prediction models that included demographic and clinical factors did not materially improve the performance of the models.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov; No: NCT01915511; registered August 5, 2013; URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov.

Temporal ordering of cognitive impairment in Parkinson's disease patients based on disease progression models

IntroductionIdentifying Parkinson's disease (PD) patients at risk of cognitive decline is crucial for enhancing clinical interventions. While several models predicting cognitive decline in PD exist, a new machine learning framework called disease progression models (DPMs) offers a data-driven approach to understand disease evolution. MethodsWe enrolled 423 PD patients and 196 healthy controls from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI). Our study encompassed a range of biomarkers, including motor, neurocognitive, and neuroimaging evaluations at baseline and annually. A methodology was employed to select optimal combinations of biomarkers for constructing DPMs with superior predictive capabilities for both diagnosing and estimating conversion times toward cognitive decline. ResultsAt baseline, the approach showed excellent performance in identifying individuals at high risk of cognitive decline within the first five years. Furthermore, the proposed timeline from cognitive impairment to dementia was also used to explore clinical events such as the onset of cognitive impairment, the development of dementia or amyloid pathology. The presence of amyloid pathology did not alter the progression of cognitive impairment among PD patients. ConclusionsNeuropsychological measures and certain biomarkers, including cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) amyloid beta 42 (Aβ42) and dopamine transporter deficits, can be used to predict cognitive decline and estimate a timeline from cognitive impairment to dementia, with amyloid pathology preceding the onset of dementia in many cases. Our DPMs suggested that the profiles of CSF Aβ42 and phosphorylated tau in PD patients may differ from those in aging patients and those with Alzheimer's disease.

Development and validation of a chronic kidney disease progression model using patient-level simulations

Chronic disease progression models are available for several highly prevalent conditions. For chronic kidney disease (CKD), the scope of existing progression models is limited to the risk of kidney failure and major cardiovascular (CV) events. The aim of this project was to develop a comprehensive CKD progression model (CKD-PM) that simulates the risk of CKD progression and a broad range of complications in patients with CKD. A series of literature reviews informed the selection of risk factors and identified existing risk equations/algorithms for kidney replacement therapy (KRT), CV events, other CKD-related complications, and mortality. Risk equations and transition probabilities were primarily sourced from publications produced by large US and international CKD registries. A patient-level, state-transition model was developed with health states defined by the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes categories. Model validation was performed by comparing predicted outcomes with observed outcomes in the source cohorts used in model development (internal validation) and other cohorts (external validation). The CKD-PM demonstrated satisfactory modeling properties. Accurate prediction of all-cause and CV mortality was achieved without calibration, while prediction of CV events through CKD-specific equations required implementation of a calibration factor to balance time-dependent versus baseline risk. Predicted annual changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-creatinine ratio were acceptable in comparison to external values. A flexible eGFR threshold for KRT equations enabled accurate prediction of these events. This CKD-PM demonstrated reliable modeling properties. Both internal and external validation revealed robust outcomes.

Big data and AI for gender equality in health: bias is a big challenge.

Artificial intelligence and machine learning are rapidly evolving fields that have the potential to transform women's health by improving diagnostic accuracy, personalizing treatment plans, and building predictive models of disease progression leading to preventive care. Three categories of women's health issues are discussed where machine learning can facilitate accessible, affordable, personalized, and evidence-based healthcare. In this perspective, firstly the promise of big data and machine learning applications in the context of women's health is elaborated. Despite these promises, machine learning applications are not widely adapted in clinical care due to many issues including ethical concerns, patient privacy, informed consent, algorithmic biases, data quality and availability, and education and training of health care professionals. In the medical field, discrimination against women has a long history. Machine learning implicitly carries biases in the data. Thus, despite the fact that machine learning has the potential to improve some aspects of women's health, it can also reinforce sex and gender biases. Advanced machine learning tools blindly integrated without properly understanding and correcting for socio-cultural sex and gender biased practices and policies is therefore unlikely to result in sex and gender equality in health.

The Potential of Disease Progression Modeling to Advance Clinical Development and Decision Making.

While some model-informed drug development frameworks are well recognized as enabling clinical trials, the value of disease progression modeling (DPM) in impacting medical product development has yet to be fully realized. The Clinical Trials Transformation Initiative assembled a diverse project team from across the patient, academic, regulatory, and industry sectors of practice to advance the use of DPM for decision making in clinical trials and medical product development. This team conducted a scoping review to explore current applications of DPM and convened a multi-stakeholder expert meeting to discuss its value in medical product development. In this article, we present the scoping review and expert meeting output and propose key questions that medical product developers and regulators may use to inform clinical development strategy, appreciate the therapeutic context and endpoint selection, and optimize trial design with disease progression models. By expanding awareness of the unique value of DPM, this article does not aim to be technical in nature but rather aims to highlight the potential of DPM to improve the quality and efficiency of medical product development.

Reconciling founder variant multiplicity of HIV-1 infection with the rate of CD4+ decline.

HIV-1 transmission precipitates a stringent genetic bottleneck, with 75% of new infections initiated by a single genetic variant. Where multiple variants initiate infection, recipient set point viral load (SpVL) and the rate of CD4+ T cell decline may be elevated, but these findings remain inconsistent. Here, we summarised the evidence for this phenomenon, then tested whether previous studies possessed sufficient statistical power to reliably identify a true effect of multiple variant infection leading to higher SpVL. Next, we combined models of HIV-1 transmission, heritability and disease progression to understand whether available data suggest a faster CD4+ T cell decline would be expected to associated with multiple variant infection, without an explicit dependency between the two. First, we found that most studies had insufficient power to identify a true significant difference, prompting an explanation for previous inconsistencies. Next, our model framework revealed we would not expect to observe a positive association between multiple variant infections and faster CD4+ T cell decline, in the absence of an explicit dependency. Consequently, while empirical evidence may be consistent with a positive association between multiple variant infection and faster CD4+ T cell decline, further investigation is required to establish a causal basis.

Asia-inclusive drug development leveraging principles of ICH E5 and E17 guidelines: Case studies illustrating quantitative clinical pharmacology as a foundational enabler.

With the International Conference on Harmonization of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH) E17 guidelines in effect from 2018, the design of Asia-inclusive multiregional clinical trials (MRCTs) has been streamlined, thereby enabling efficient simultaneous global development. Furthermore, with the recent regulatory reforms in China and its drug administration joining the ICH as a full regulatory member, early participation of China in the global clinical development of novel investigational drugs is now feasible. This would also allow for inclusion of the region in the geographic footprint of pivotal MRCTs leveraging principles of the ICH E5 and E17. Herein, we describe recent case examples of model-informed Asia-inclusive global clinical development in the EMD Serono portfolio, as applied to the ataxia telangiectasia and Rad3-related inhibitors, tuvusertib and berzosertib (oncology), the toll-like receptor 7/8 antagonist, enpatoran (autoimmune diseases), the mesenchymal-epithelial transition factor inhibitor tepotinib (oncology), and the antimetabolite cladribine (neuroimmunological disease). Through these case studies, we illustrate pragmatic approaches to ethnic sensitivity assessments and the application of a model-informed drug development toolkit including population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modeling and pharmacometric disease progression modeling and simulation to enable early conduct of Asia-inclusive MRCTs. These examples demonstrate the value of a Totality of Evidence approach where every patient's data matter for de-risking ethnic sensitivity to inter-population variations in drug- and disease-related intrinsic and extrinsic factors, enabling inclusive global development strategies and timely evidence generation for characterizing benefit/risk of the proposed dosage in Asian populations.

Validation of the Klinrisk Kidney Disease Progression Model in Individuals with IgA Nephropathy

Validation of the Klinrisk Kidney Disease Progression Model in Individuals with IgA Nephropathy

The use of artificial intelligence, numerical algorithms and expert approach in selected nephrology problems

Background: The integration of AI, numerical algorithms, and expert approaches in nephrology shows promise for enhancing patient care. Traditionally, nephrology relied on clinician expertise, but the growing volume of data requires innovative methods. AI, fueled by vast datasets, can uncover patterns and improve diagnostic accuracy and treatment optimization. Numerical algorithms enable computational modeling of renal physiology and disease progression, aiding in treatment prediction and optimization. Expert systems codify nephrologists' knowledge into decision support tools, aiding in diagnosis and treatment selection. Embracing these technologies can revolutionize nephrological practice, improving patient outcomes.Aim of the study: The aim of the research is to review scientific works on the use of artificial intelligence (AI), numerical algorithms, and expert algorithms in diagnosis, decision support and prediction of selected disease states and issues related to nephrology.Material and methods: The study rigorously retrieved relevant publications from esteemed academic databases, Scopus and PubMed, and screened them based on predefined criteria. Through keyword-based searches, it analyzed the intersection of nephrology and artificial intelligence, offering insights into emerging trends and advancements. This approach facilitated a comprehensive exploration of the integration of artificial intelligence in nephrology research, paving the way for future developments in the field.Results: Artificial intelligence in nephrology and medicine uses various technologies such as machine learning, deep learning and natural language processing to improve diagnosis, treatment and patient care. Analyzes clinical, laboratory, imaging and genetic data to accelerate the identification of kidney diseases. By integrating health information systems and research data, artificial intelligence enables pattern recognition, outcome prediction and treatment optimization, ultimately having the potential to permanently improve patient care.Conclusions: Numerical algorithms, artificial intelligence, and expert algorithms show promise in nephrology, improving patient care and research.

Estimated Disease Progression Trajectory of White Matter Disruption in Unilateral Temporal Lobe Epilepsy: A Data-Driven Machine Learning Approach.

Although the involvement of progressive brain alterations in epilepsy was recently suggested, individual patients' trajectories of white matter (WM) disruption are not known. We investigated the disease progression patterns of WM damage and its associations with clinical metrics. We examined the cross-sectional diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) data of 155 patients with unilateral temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) and 270 age/gender-matched healthy controls, and we then calculated the average fractional anisotropy (FA) values within 20 WM tracts of the whole brain. We used the Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) program to detect the progression trajectory of FA changes and investigated its association with clinical parameters including onset age, disease duration, drug-responsiveness, and the number of anti-seizure medications (ASMs). The SuStaIn algorithm identified a single subtype model in which the initial damage occurs in the ipsilateral uncinate fasciculus (UF), followed by damage in the forceps, superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF), and anterior thalamic radiation (ATR). This pattern was replicated when analyzing TLE with hippocampal sclerosis (n = 50) and TLE with no lesions (n = 105) separately. Further-progressed stages were associated with longer disease duration (p < 0.001) and a greater number of ASMs (p = 0.001). the disease progression model based on WM tracts may be useful as a novel individual-level biomarker.

Modeling of Parkinson's Disease Progression and Implications for Detection of Disease Modification in Treatment Trials.

Objectively measuring Parkinson's disease (PD) signs and symptoms over time is critical for the successful development of treatments aimed at halting the disease progression of people with PD. To create a clinical trial simulation tool that characterizes the natural history of PD progression and enables a data-driven design of randomized controlled studies testing potential disease-modifying treatments (DMT) in early-stage PD. Data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) were analyzed with nonlinear mixed-effect modeling techniques to characterize the progression of MDS-UPDRS part I (non-motor aspects of experiences of daily living), part II (motor aspects of experiences of daily living), and part III (motor signs). A clinical trial simulation tool was built from these disease models and used to predict probability of success as a function of trial design. MDS-UPDRS part III progresses approximately 3 times faster than MDS-UPDRS part II and I, with an increase of 3 versus 1 points/year. Higher amounts of symptomatic therapy is associated with slower progression of MDS-UPDRS part II and III. The modeling framework predicts that a DMT effect on MDS-UPDRS part III could precede effect on part II by approximately 2 to 3 years. Our clinical trial simulation tool predicted that in a two-year randomized controlled trial, MDS-UPDRS part III could be used to evaluate a potential novel DMT, while part II would require longer trials of a minimum duration of 3 to 5 years underscoring the need for innovative trial design approaches including novel patient-centric measures.

Study on the prediction model of liver cancer based on chronic liver disease and the related molecular mechanism

Introduction and objectiveDue to the high heterogeneity of HCC, which leads to poor prognostic outcomes for patients, there is a need to develop a novel predictive model for accurate classification of HCC in order to improve patient survival rates. Materials and methodsThe data of the HCV, cirrhosis, and HCC were obtained from TCGA and GEO databases. Multivariable Cox regression analysis and survival analysis was conducted to assess the prognostic relevance of these differentially expressed genes. Single-cell sequencing was used to explore the intercellular interaction patterns and identify relevant signaling pathways. Drug sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine personalized treatment strategies for patients. ResultsIn this study, we conducted integrated analysis of hepatitis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma datasets and identified 10 liver disease progression genes associated with prognosis. These genes exhibited significant downregulation in expression as the disease advanced, suggesting their crucial involvement in HCC development. By performing multivariable Cox analysis, we established a prognostic model for liver disease progression to predict the prognosis of HCC patients. The model was validated using ROC analysis, demonstrating good accuracy and stability in prognostic evaluation. Single-cell sequencing analysis revealed that these genes primarily exert their effects through the MIF signaling pathway during HCC progression. Furthermore, we observed that patients in the low-risk group exhibited higher sensitivity to TACE treatment, while patients in the high-risk group showed better response to sorafenib treatment. ConclusionsIn summary, we have elucidated the key genes involved in the progression of liver diseases and established a precise prognostic model for assessing the prognosis of HCC patients. Our study provides novel insights and strategies for the treatment of HCC.

Minimum spanning tree analysis of unimpaired individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease.

Identifying early and non-invasive biomarkers to detect individuals in the earliest stages of the Alzheimer's disease continuum is crucial. As a result, electrophysiology and plasma biomarkers are emerging as great candidates in this pursuit due to their low invasiveness. This is the first magnetoencephalography study to assess the relationship between minimum spanning tree parameters, an alternative to overcome the comparability and thresholding problem issues characteristic of conventional brain network analyses, and plasma phosphorylated tau231 levels in unimpaired individuals, with different risk levels of Alzheimer's disease. Seventy-six individuals with available magnetoencephalography recordings and phosphorylated tau231 plasma determination were included. The minimum spanning tree for the theta, alpha and beta bands for each subject was obtained, and the leaf fraction, tree hierarchy and diameter were calculated. To study the relationship between these topological parameters and phosphorylated tau231, we performed correlation analyses, for the whole sample and considering the two risk sub-groups separately. Increasing concentrations of phosphorylated tau231 were associated with greater leaf fraction and tree hierarchy values, along with lower diameter values, for the alpha and theta frequency bands. These results emerged for the whole sample and the higher risk group, but not for the lower risk group. Our results indicate that the network topology of cognitively unimpaired individuals with elevated plasma phosphorylated tau231 levels, a marker of Alzheimer's disease pathology and amyloid-β accumulation, is already altered, shifting towards a more integrated network increasing its vulnerability and hub-dependency, mostly in the alpha band. This is indicated by increases in leaf fraction and tree hierarchy, along with reductions in diameter. These results match the initial trajectory proposed by theoretical models of disease progression and network disruption and suggest that changes in brain function and organization begin early on.