Disease-free Equilibrium Research Articles

Dynamical behavior of a hepatitis B epidemic model and its NSFD scheme

AbstractHepatitis is inflammation of the liver, and one of its types, hepatitis B, is a contagious infection. Using mathematical models, the nature of the spread of the Hepatitis B virus can be predicted. In the present paper, a hepatitis B epidemic model with a Beddington–DeAngelis type incidence rate and a constant vaccination rate is considered. Some dynamical properties of this model, such as non-negativity, boundedness character, the basic reproduction number $$\mathcal {R}_0$$ R 0 , stability nature, and the bifurcation phenomenon, are investigated. By the Bendixson theorem, it is demonstrated that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. It is shown that a transcritical bifurcation phenomenon occurs when $$\mathcal {R}_0=1$$ R 0 = 1 . It is concluded that the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when $$\mathcal {R}_0>1$$ R 0 > 1 , by utilizing Dulac’s criteria. Also, a discrete system of difference equations is obtained by constructing a non-standard finite difference (NSFD) scheme for the continuous model. It is shown that the solutions of this discrete system are dynamically consistent for all finite step sizes. The theoretical results obtained are also supported and visualized by numerical simulations. These simulations also demonstrate that the NSFD scheme produces much more efficient results than the Euler or RK4 schemes, as shown in the theoretical results obtained.

Mathematical Modeling of the Transmission Dynamics of Gumboro Disease

Gumboro disease is a viral poultry disease that causes immune suppression on the infected birds leading to poor production, mortality, and exposure to secondary infections, hence a major threat in the poultry industry worldwide. A mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of Gumboro disease is developed in this paper having four compartments of chicken population and one compartment of Gumboro pathogen population. The basic reproduction number Rog is derived, and the dynamical behaviors of both the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and endemic equilibrium are analyzed using the ordinary differential equation theory. From the analysis, we found that the system exhibits an asymptotic stable DFE whenever Rog<1 and an asymptotic stable EE whenever Rog>1. The numerical simulation to verify the theoretical results was carried out using MATLAB ode45 solver, and the results were found to be consistent with the theoretical findings.

A model for the control of transmission dynamics of human monkeypox disease in Sub-Saharan Africa

The Human Monkeypox virus has received significant research interest in recent times. While few researchers have studied the effects of vaccination on human-to-animal or animal-to-human Monkeypox transmission, others just studied the effects of treatment on human Monkeypox. In this article, we made the proposition of a deterministic vaccine model that deals with the dynamics of the effects of vaccination and treatment on human Monkeypox in sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated the effects of vaccination on the various epidemiological classes qualitatively. The findings from the analysis of the model are that the model possesses two equilibria, locally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) when an epidemiological threshold - the effective reproductive number is less than unity, and locally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium when the number is greater than unity. We then corroborated the theoretical findings with numerical simulations, which reveal that when the rate of vaccination is increased resulting in many newly born persons in the populace being vaccinated, the prevalence of the deadly scourge is significantly reduced, while newly born individuals that miss vaccination experience a drastic torment of the deadly disease that often occasion death. Further revelation from the simulations is that when greater efforts

Modelling the co-infection of malaria and zika virus disease

In this work, a new model for the co-infection of malaria and zika virus disease incorporating vaccination, treatment and vector control using sterile-insect technology (SIT) is formulated. The importance of this study is to highlight the possibility of the co-infection of humans with malaria and zika virus disease in any environment where both diseases co-circulate. Also, to suggest a new and comprehensive method for controlling the individual diseases and their co-infection. Through stability analysis, we showed that the disease-free equilibrium, (DFE) point of the co-infection model is locally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction numbers, Rmz is less than one, and unstable otherwise. But, the DFE failed to be globally stable when Rmz < 1 which is an indication of existence of backward bifurcation in the model. This shows that bringing down the reproduction number, Rmz to less than one is not enough to eradicate the co-infection of the two diseases. Furthermore, it is shown that the two diseases have positive impact on the spread of each other, which could be attributed to misdiagnoses of one disease as the other. We also showed that effective treatment of infectious humans, increasing the rate of vaccination and employing sterile-insect technique to control the vectors significantly helped to control the individual diseases as well as the co-infection. From the results obtained in the study, it can be concluded that effective control of malaria and zika virus disease requires measures that will control their spread in both human and mosquito populations.

Dynamics analysis and optimal control of delayed SEIR model in COVID-19 epidemic

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains serious around the world and causes huge deaths and economic losses. Understanding the transmission dynamics of diseases and providing effective control strategies play important roles in the prevention of epidemic diseases. In this paper, to investigate the effect of delays on the transmission of COVID-19, we propose a delayed SEIR model to describe COVID-19 virus transmission, where two delays indicating the incubation and recovery periods are introduced. For this system, we prove its solutions are nonnegative and ultimately bounded with the nonnegative initial conditions. Furthermore, we calculate the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points and analyze the asymptotical stability and the existence of Hopf bifurcations at these equilibrium points. Then, by taking the weighted sum of the opposite number of recovered individuals at the terminal time, the number of exposed and infected individuals during the time horizon, and the system cost of control measures as the cost function, we present a delay optimal control problem, where two controls represent the social contact and the pharmaceutical intervention. Necessary optimality conditions of this optimal control problem are exploited to characterize the optimal control strategies. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to verify the theoretical analysis of the stability and Hopf bifurcations at the equilibrium points and to illustrate the effectiveness of the obtained optimal strategies in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic.

Comparative analysis of a fractional co-infection model using nonstandard finite difference and two-step Lagrange polynomial methods

In this work, Caputo fractional model for co-dynamics of two-strains (Alpha and Delta variants) of SARS-CoV-2 and tuberculosis (TB) is formulated. We investigates the basic mathematical analysis, existence of unique solution, stability analysis, sensitivity analysis and simulations of the proposed model. In the basic mathematical analysis, it is proved that the model’s solutions are non-negative, bounded and locally asymptotically stable at disease free equilibrium (DFE) point. The existence of unique solution is proved by using Banach fixed point theorem (BFPT). Stability analysis is carried out by employing Hyers–Ulam stability criteria. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impact of the model parameters on the general dynamics of the model by implementing partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) technique. Simulations of the proposed model obtained from non-standard finite difference scheme (NSFDs) are compared with the simulations obtained from two-step Lagrange polynomial method (TLPM). It is concluded that NSFDs gives more accurate and realistic results than TLPM. To assess some control measures necessary for reducing the co-spread of both diseases, comparative simulations are carried out for the infected classes. Also, numerical assessments showed that preventive efforts against SARS-CoV-2 variants could results in the reduction of TB prevalence and the co-infection of both diseases.

Global stability analysis and modelling onchocerciasis transmission dynamics with control measures

ABSTRACT Background: Onchocerciasis infection is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for eradication by 2030. The disease is usually transmitted to humans through the bites of black flies. These black flies mostly breed near well-oxygenated fast-running water bodies. The disease is common in mostly remote agricultural villages near rivers and streams. Objective: In this study, a deterministic model describing the infection dynamics of human onchocerciasis disease with control measures is presented. Methods: We derived the model’s reproductive number and used a stability theorem of a Metzler matrix to show that disease-free equilibrium is both locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever the reproductive number is less than one. Parameter contribution was conducted using sensitivity analysis. The model endemic equation is shown to be a cubic polynomial in the presence of infected immigrants and a quadratic form in their absence. Results: When the inflow of infected immigrants is null, the model endemic equation may admit a unique equilibrium if the reproductive number is greater than one, or admits multiple endemic equilibria if the reproductive number is less than unity. We carried out a sensitivity analysis to identify the significant parameters that contribute to onchocerciasis spread. Conclusion: Onchocerciasis disease can be eradicated if the importation of infected immigrants is properly monitored. The integration of the One Health concept in the public health system is key in tackling the emergence and spread of diseases.

Study on SEAI Model of COVID-19 Based on Asymptomatic Infection

In this paper, an SEAI epidemic model with asymptomatic infection is studied under the background of mass transmission of COVID-19. First, we use the next-generation matrix method to obtain the basic reproductive number R0 and calculate the equilibrium point. Secondly, when R0<1, the local asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium is proved by Hurwitz criterion, and the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium is proved by constructing the Lyapunov function. When R0>1, the system has a unique endemic equilibrium point and is locally asymptotically stable, and it is also proved that the system is uniformly persistent. Then, the application of optimal control theory is carried out, and the expression of the optimal control solution is obtained. Finally, in order to verify the correctness of the theory, the stability of the equilibrium point is numerically simulated and the sensitivity of the parameters of R0 is analyzed. We also simulated the comparison of the number of asymptomatic infected people and symptomatic infected people before and after adopting the optimal control strategy. This shows that the infection of asymptomatic people cannot be underestimated in the spread of COVID-19 virus, and an isolation strategy should be adopted to control the spread speed of the disease.

Modeling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with genetically resistant humans

The emergence of a coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-COV 2) has caused an unprecedented global societal and public health crisis. A mathematical model that incorporates an individual’s ability to resist COVID-19 infection is considered to study the dynamics of COVID-19. Detection and testing for COVID-19 in individuals who has ability to resist the infection, proper preventive measures, and timely medical care are essential in managing and controlling COVID-19 outbreak. These allows us to make quantifiable predictions about the effects of testing utilization on the COVID-19 prevalence. First, we analyze the disease-free state of the COVID-19 model, calculate the baseline control reproduction number, and obtain the local stability of disease-free equilibrium. The model is calibrated using data obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and key parameters of the model are estimated. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to investigate the influence of the parameters in curtailing the disease. Numerical simulations are then used to explore the behavior of the model solutions involving the novel variable (genetically resistant humans) and control measures. Our results suggest that strict intervention effort (early detection of genetically resistant individuals, testing and isolation of the infected individuals) is required for quick suppression of the disease.

Stability analysis of a delayed SEIRQ epidemic model with diffusion

In this paper, we investigate the effect of spatial diffusion and delay on the dynamical behavior of the SEIRQ epidemic model. The introduction of the delay in this model makes it more realistic and modelizes the latency period. In addition, the consideration of an SEIRQ model with diffusion aims to better understand the impact of the spatial heterogeneity of the environment and the movement of individuals on the persistence and extinction of disease. First, we determined a threshold value $R_0$ of the delayed SEIRQ model with diffusion. Next, By using the theory of partial functional differential equations, we have shown that the unique disease-free equilibrium is asymptotically stable , what is proven by the numericals scchema. Moreover,we search under their condition the endemic equilibrium is asymptotically stable .

Analysis of mathematical model for asthma caused by the effects of environmental pollution

Asthma is a condition in which your airways narrow and swell and may produce extra mucus. In this study, an improved mathematical model of asthma which includes infected class not detected, infected detected class and recovered (relieved) class was formulated. The model exhibits two equilibrium, namely disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. The analysis of positivity and boundedness of solutions showed that the model is epidemiologically well pose d. Simulation results showed that when pollutants are discharged into the environment at a constant rate, the asthma disease cases also increase in the population due to the fact that the interaction rate of both susceptible and infected undetected with pollutants in creases.Finally, asthma can be control by restricting the smokers from the population and the rate of release of pollutants into the environment.

Stability analysis of fractional epidemic model for two infected classes incorporating hospitalization impact

Abstract This article presents an epidemic disease propagation mathematical model in fractional order. The epidemiological characteristics are presented based on the susceptible, exposed, unknown infected, known infected, hospitalized population and the population in the secure zone. Both the disease endemic equilibrium and the disease-free equilibrium's stability characteristics have been examined using the basic reproduction number. Variation of basic reproduction number based on the different sensitive parameters has been discussed. It has been disputed whether the fractional model provides a uniform, reliable solution. An analysis of the time history of unknown and known infected populations, hospitalized populations and recovered populations at different values of various sensitive parameters has been carried out. To support the key theoretical conclusions, some numerical simulations are completed using MATLAB. The impact of various populations on the propagation of the illness has also been investigated, as well as how specific state variables change over time for various fractional order values.

Wiener and Lévy processes to prevent disease outbreaks: Predictable vs stochastic analysis

The study considers stochastic behavior along with modeling, mathematical analysis, theory development, and numerical simulation of the COVID-19 virus. To evaluate current trends and make future projections regarding the basic reproduction number and infection case, we have taken the modified five-compartment SEIRD mathematical model. Since the basic reproduction number R0 is not sufficient to predict the outbreak, we applied the Itô stochastic differential equations (SDEs) along with the Weiner process and Lévy jump to investigate the nature of the disease outbreak. Since COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 “(SARS-CoV-2)”, that has common symptoms including fever, cough, and difficulty breathing, we have illustrated the boundedness and positivity of solutions and investigated the stability of endemic and disease-free equilibrium points. The findings show that the dynamics of disease epidemics are influenced by contact patterns. For all the models, the threshold quantity, R0 is calculated which is the key reason to prove the global and local stability analysis of disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium points. Using the least squares method for data fitting, we have performed a case study on COVID-19 data in Italy for this article. A sensitivity analysis is part of our investigation to find important factors. This paper investigates a stochastic epidemic model (SDE) using Lévy jumps and Weiner processes. Local and global stability in a stochastic setting are examined in the analysis. To view the analytical study, a multitude of numerical results are achieved. The study is important to comprehend the stochastic behavior of the virus in the contagious model in order to prevent similar disease outbreaks in the future.

A deterministic compartment model for analyzing tuberculosis dynamics considering vaccination and reinfection

Tuberculosis is a pressing global health concern, particularly pervasive in many developing nations. This study investigates the influence of treatment failure on tuberculosis control strategies, incorporating vaccination interventions using a deterministic compartmental epidemiological model. Mathematical analysis unveils disease-free and endemic equilibrium points, with the control reproduction number determined using next-generation methods. Identifying endemic equilibrium points and determining the control reproduction number provide essential metrics for assessing the effectiveness of control strategies and guiding policy decisions. The model exhibits a backward bifurcation phenomenon, leading to multiple endemic equilibria despite a reproduction number below one due to reinfection. Sensitivity analysis using Latin Hypercube Sampling/Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient elucidates parameter impacts on the control reproduction number. Vaccination efficacy is crucial for quality and validity, with superior quality and longer validity yielding more significant effects. While reinfection may not directly affect the reproduction number, its influence is pivotal in determining tuberculosis persistence or extinction. This study underscores the intricate interplay of factors in tuberculosis control strategies, providing insights vital for effective interventions and policy formulation.

Modeling and analysis of a fractional order spatio-temporal SEIR model: Stability and prediction

This study introduces a novel fractional-order spatio-temporal SEIR model for epidemic modeling, providing an advanced approach to understanding disease dynamics. Our model, categorizing the population into Susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Infected (I), and Recovered (R), incorporates fractional calculus to accurately reflect the complex, non-linear nature of infectious diseases. Key findings include the confirmation of the existence and uniqueness of the model’s solutions, ensuring reliability for epidemiological predictions. Through rigorous stability analysis at both disease-free and endemic equilibrium points, we identified critical parameters influencing epidemic outcomes. Numerical simulations reveal that the fractional order significantly impacts disease progression, offering valuable insights for intervention strategies.

Dynamical analysis of HIV-TB co-infection transmission model in the presence of treatment for TB

The immense disease burden of tuberculosis (TB) infection is well-documented, particularly among those co-infected with HIV and TB. To better understand the transmission dynamics of HIV-TB co-infection in the absence of readily available HIV treatment, we develop a deterministic compartmental co-infection model. Our model helps to identify the effects of TB infection on the co-infection dynamics of the two diseases, especially when treatment for TB is readily available. We find that susceptibility to TB reinfection after a previous infection leads to backward bifurcation in the TB-only model when the associated reproduction number (R_0) is less than unity. However, when we make the susceptibility to TB re-infection insignificant in the model, the disease-free equilibrium of the TB-only model is locally asymptotically stable when the associated R_0 is less than unity. We conduct sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to identify the key parameters driving TB infection dynamics, using the R_0 as the response function. We discover that the transmission rate for TB, the modification parameters accounting for the infectiousness of infected individuals with TB-only, and the treatment rates for singly infected individuals with latently infected TB are the top drivers of TB infection in the given population. Our numerical simulations suggest that concentrating treatment on TB-infected individuals in the diagnosed latently infected stage (singly or dually infected with HIV) could effectively reduce the co-infection disease burden and HIV incidence in the population under study.

A novel study of the impact of vaccination on pneumonia via fractional approach

Substantial advancements have been made in applying fractional calculus to understanding the epidemiology of viral diseases. However, it remains troubling that over 2,000,000 children, particularly those under the age of 5 and elderly individuals over 65, succumb to pneumonia annually in developing nations. This paper uses a deterministic SVEIR (susceptible, vaccinated, exposed, infected, and recovered) model to investigate pneumonia disease dynamics from a mathematical perspective. The governing model has been generalized from Caputo fractional derivatives, and the generalized Euler’s method has been used to calculate the approximate solution of the governing model. The dynamical systems theory examines the model’s stability analysis, basic reproduction number, and equilibrium points. The linearization method for spatial equilibrium and the Lyapunov functional method demonstrate that the model is locally asymptotic stable for disease-free equilibrium. Graphical results are showcased through MATLAB21 to illustrate the resolution of the problem. The research findings suggest that the disease will eventually disappear from the population if vaccination coverage rises over the necessary vaccination threshold. According to sensitivity analysis, the most sensitive factors are the transmission rate and the pace at which exposed individuals become contagious. According to the study, we must strengthen treatment effectiveness to prevent disease spreading.

Stability and codimension 2 bifurcations in an [formula omitted] model with incubation delay

The aim of this paper is to investigate the complex nonlinear dynamics, such as the existence and effect of various types of bifurcations, in an infectious disease model system. An SIR delay model that accounts for saturated incidence, saturated treatment, and self-protection in the susceptible population is considered. The model system has a disease free equilibrium, and its local stability is determined by the basic reproduction number for any delay value. The existence of multiple endemic equilibria is obtained, and these equilibria may switch stability due to variation of bifurcation parameters. When incubation delay is zero, Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation occurs, which implies the existence of Hopf bifurcation, saddle–node, and homoclinic bifurcations. Thus, the disease will persist within or on the homoclinic loop and otherwise dies out. We also find the existence of backward bifurcation and forward (transcritical) bifurcation. The delay-induced stability switches are observed due to Hopf bifurcations, leading to endemic bubbles. Incubation delay affects the stability of equilibria when the model system has multiple endemic equilibria, so multi-stability is observed. Due to incubation delay, the two frequency Hopf–Hopf bifurcation and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation are found. Thus, both codimension 1 and codimension 2 bifurcations in the effect of incubation delay are exhibited in this study. Numerically, we notice that with increasing incubation delay, the endemic equilibrium either changes stability (from stable to unstable or unstable to stable) or remains unstable with different frequencies of oscillations.

On Theoretical and Numerical Results of Serum Hepatitis Disease Using Piecewise Fractal–Fractional Perspectives

In the present research, we consider a biological model of serum hepatitis disease. We carry out a detailed analysis of the mentioned model along with a class with asymptomatic carriers to explore its theoretical and numerical aspects. We initiate the study by using the piecewise fractal–fractional derivative (FFD) by which the crossover effects within the model are examined. We split the time interval into subintervals. In one subinterval, FFD with a power law kernel is taken, while in the second one, FFD with an exponential decay kernel of the proposed model is considered. This model is then studied for its disease-free equilibrium point, existence, and Hyers–Ulam (H-U) stability results. For numerical results of the model and a visual presentation, we apply the Lagrange interpolation method and an extended Adams–Bashforth–Moulton (ABM) method, respectively.

An infectious disease epidemic model with migration and stochastic transmission in deterministic and stochastic environments

Understanding population migration is essential for controlling highly infectious diseases. This paper studies the global dynamics of an infectious disease epidemic model incorporating population migration and a stochastic transmission rate. Our findings demonstrate that in deterministic and stochastic environments, the models exhibit global Lyapunov stability near the disease-free equilibrium point, determined by a threshold parameter. Furthermore, we analyze the effect of migration on infectious diseases. We discover that the number of infections and the peak value of the infection curve increase with a higher level of population migration. These results are supported by numerical illustrations that hold epidemiological relevance. Additionally, the disease-free equilibrium of the associated time delay model is linearly asymptotically stable, and the endemic equilibrium exhibits more bifurcation for larger time delay values.