Discriminatory Capacity Research Articles

Radiomics-based predictive model for preoperative risk classification of gastrointestinal stromal tumors using multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging: aretrospective study.

The aim of this study was to develop and assess aradiomics model utilizing multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the prediction of preoperative risk assessment in gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs). An analysis was performed retrospectively on agroup of 121 patients who received ahistological diagnosis of GIST. They were then divided into two sets, with85 in the training set and 36 in the validation set through random partitioning. Radiomics features from five MRI sequences, totaling 600 per patient, were extracted and subjected to feature selection utilizing arandom forest algorithm. The discriminatory efficacy of the models was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and precision-recall (P-R) curve analyses. Model calibration was assessed via calibration curves. Subgroup analysis was performed on GISTs with apathological maximum diameter equal to or less than 5 cm. Furtherly, Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves and log-rank tests were used to compare the differences in survival status among different groups. Cox regression analysis was employed to identify independent prognostic factors and to construct aprognostic prediction model. The clinical model (ModelC) displayed limited predictive efficacy in the context of GIST. Conversely, aradiomics model (ModelR) incorporating five parameters exhibited robust discriminative capabilities across both the training and validation sets, yielding area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of 0.893 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.807-0.949) and 0.855 (95% CI: 0.732-0.978), respectively. The F1max scores derived from the P‑R curves were 0.741 and 0.842 for the training and validation sets, respectively. Noteworthy was the exclusion of the two-dimensional tumor diameter and tumor location when constructing ahybrid model (ModelCR) that amalgamated radiomics and clinical features. ModelR demonstrated asubstantially enhanced discriminative capacity in the training set compared with ModelC (p < 0.005). The net reclassification improvement (NRI) corroborated the superior performance of ModelR over ModelC, thereby enhancing diagnostic accuracy and clinical applicability. Patients in the high-risk group had significantly worse recurrence-free survival (RFS, p < 0.001) and overall survival (OS, p = 0.004), and the radiomics signature is an independent risk factor for RFS. The extended model incorporating the radiomics signature outperformed the baseline model in terms of risk assessment accuracy (p < 0.001). Our investigation underscores the value of integrating radiomics analysis in conjunction with machine learning algorithms for prognostic risk stratification in GIST, presenting promising implications for informing clinical decision-making processes as well as optimizing management strategies.

The role of corneal epithelial thickness map in detecting early keratoconus.

To detect subtle changes in early keratoconus by evaluating corneal epithelial thickness differences among patients with binocular very asymmetric ectasia (VAE) and normal subjects. Corneal epithelial thickness was measured using the Fourier-domain AS-OCT system RTVue® 100 (Optovue, Fremont, CA, USA). 152 eyes from 76 patients were divided into three groups: Very asymmetry ectasia-ectasia (VAE-E, n = 38), Very asymmetry ectasia-normal topography (VAE-NT, n = 38), and Normal control (NC, n = 76). Discrimination capacity was assessed using areas under the curve (AUC) of receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. In the keratoconus group, the epithelial Min (minimum), central, midperipheral I (inferior), midperipheral IT (inferior-temporal), peripheral IT, and midperipheral T (temporal) were thinner (all P < 0.05). The topography normal group had thinner midperipheral IN (inferior-nasal), peripheral IN, midperipheral T, and peripheral T, and larger Max-Min and Std. Dev (P < 0.05). For diagnosing typical keratoconus, Std. Dev (AUC = 0.982, sensitivity 97.4%, specificity 92.1%) had the highest diagnostic efficiency. Combining four variables (Minimum, Max-Min, Midperipheral IT, and Midperipheral I) performed well in distinguishing topography normal eyes (AUC = 0.896, sensitivity 76.3%, specificity 89.5%). Multivariable analysis using epithelial parameters combined with Pentacam random forest index (PRFI) yielded the best results (AUC = 0.951, sensitivity 90.6%, specificity 89.5%). The corneal epithelial parameters play an important auxiliary role in the diagnosis of keratoconus and the screening of subclinical keratoconus. Combination of epithelial parameters and tomographic parameters can improve the sensitivity of early stage keratoconus detection.

Assessing the predictive potential of ADAM8 for disease control in chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps

BackgroundA disintegrin and metalloproteinase 8 (ADAM8) has been implicated in eosinophilic inflammation; however, its role in chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) remains to be elucidated. This study aimed to investigate the predictive significance of ADAM8 levels in nasal secretions for the endotypes and disease control status of CRSwNP.MethodsA cohort comprising 120 CRSwNP patients and 45 healthy controls (HCs) was assembled, delineating 53 non-eosinophilic CRSwNP (neCRSwNP) and 67 eosinophilic CRSwNP (eCRSwNP) patients. Immunohistochemistry and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) were utilized to measure ADAM8 levels in nasal mucosal tissues and secretions from all participants. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Pearson correlation analysis were employed to assess the predictive capability of ADAM8 levels in predictiving CRSwNP endotypes and disease control status.ResultsADAM8 levels in nasal secretions were elevated in CRSwNP patients compared to HCs, with a more pronounced increase observed in eCRSwNP patients. Elevated ADAM8 concentrations in nasal secretions were positively correlated with peripheral blood eosinophil counts and percentages, tissue eosinophil counts, serum total IgE, Lund–Mackay scores, and Lund-Kennedy scores. Ultimately, 103 CRSwNP patients completed the follow-up protocol, with 72 classified as the controlled group and 31 as the uncontrolled group. Uncontrolled CRSwNP patients exhibited significantly higher ADAM8 levels in nasal secretions compared to the controlled group. The ROC curves indicated that ADAM8 in nasal secretions exhibits robust discriminatory capacity for eCRSwNP and postoperative disease control status.ConclusionADAM8 in nasal secretions emerges as a potential novel biomarker for the prognostication of CRSwNP endotypes and the postoperative disease control status.

Influence of an Alternative Diagnosis on the Diagnosis of Pulmonary Thromboembolism

Background: The diagnosis of pulmonary embolism (PE) is based on the application of a priori probability scales such as the Wells scale or PERC. However, the clinical heterogeneity of this pathology results in the absence of a target population to apply these algorithms. The Wells score does consider the possibility of an alternative diagnosis, awarding an additional point if no other diagnosis is likely, yet the presence of objective alternative diagnoses can still complicate clinical assessment and lead to unnecessary testing or missed diagnoses. Objective: The aim of this study is to evaluate the discrimination capacity of clinical objective factors with a high negative predictive value for PE, compared to PERC in terms of reducing unnecessary testing across different risk strata of the Wells scale. Materials and Methods: This was a single-center retrospective cohort study, including patients who underwent chest CT angiography to rule out PE at a university hospital between 2008 and 2017, considering the presence of PE as the study outcome. The study collected demographic data, comorbidities, and clinical presentation data. The presence of objective criteria for pneumonia, heart failure, exacerbation of COPD, or the use of anticoagulation in non-oncological patients were considered a priori criteria with a high negative predictive value. Results: The analyses were performed on a cohort of 399 patients with an average age of 65 years and 53% females. A total of 139 patients were diagnosed with PE by CT angiography. The presence of factors with a high NPV showed a sensitivity of 100% in low-risk patients according to Wells, with sensitivity dropping below 50% in other populations. The association of these factors in the PERC plus criteria would allow a reduction of up to 34% in CT angiographies in patients with low risk according to the Wells scale. Conclusions: The combination of risk stratification of the Wells scale and PERC plus criteria allows an absolute reduction of 34.3% in the performance of CT angiographies in patients classified as low risk with a sensitivity and a negative predictive value of 100%. The preexistence of an alternative diagnosis does not allow ruling out PE in patients with intermediate or high risk according to the Wells scale.

QRISK3 and SCORE2 are equally reliable predictors of carotid plaques in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.

Cardiovascular (CV) disease is the leading cause of death among patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). This study aimed to compare the performance of QRESEARCH-risk estimator version 3 (QRISK3) and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation-2 (SCORE2) scores to identify SLE patients at high risk of CV events, as indicated by the presence of carotid plaques. Subclinical atherosclerosis was evaluated using carotid ultrasound in 365 SLE patients. QRISK3 and SCORE2 were calculated. The relationship between these scores and the presence of carotid plaques was analyzed by treating the scores as continuous and categorical variables, and separately and in combination. Logistic regression and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analyses were used to assess their predictive accuracy. The discriminatory capacity of QRISK3, with an AUC of 0.770 (95%CI : 0.720, 0.821), and SCORE2, with an AUC of 0.800 (95%CI : 0.753, 0.843), for carotid plaque was similar, with no statistically significant difference (p= 0.070). However, when examining the association of both calculators considered continuously and together with their interaction, the discriminatory capacity of this combination was significantly greater than that of QRISK3 alone (p= 0.034) but did not differ from SCORE2 (p= 0.71). QRISK3 and SCORE2 are equally reliable predictors of carotid plaques in SLE patients. The combination of both calculators offers significantly better discrimination than QRISK3 alone but shows no significant difference when compared with SCORE2 alone. Therefore, SCORE2 alone, without the need for additional tools, can be used to identify patients with SLE who are at high risk of CV events.

Impact‐Based Skill Evaluation of Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts

AbstractWe introduce an impact‐based framework to evaluate seasonal forecast model skill in capturing extreme weather and climate events over regions prone to natural disasters such as floods and wildfires. Forecasting hydroclimatic extremes holds significant importance in an era of increasing hazards such as wildfires, floods, and droughts. We evaluate the performance of five Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecast models (CMCC, DWD, ECCC, UK‐Met, and Météo‐France) in predicting extreme precipitation events from 1993 to 2016 using 14 indices reflecting timing and intensity (using absolute and locally defined thresholds) of precipitation at a seasonal timescale. Performance metrics, including Percent Bias, Kendall Tau Rank Correlation Score, and models' discrimination capacity, are used for skill evaluation. Our findings indicate that the performance of models varies markedly across regions and seasons. While models generally show good skill in the tropical regions, their skill in extra‐tropical regions is markedly lower. Elevated precipitation thresholds (i.e., higher intensity indices) correlate with heightened model biases, indicating deficiencies in modeling severe precipitation events. Our analysis using an impact‐based framework highlights the superior predictive capabilities of the UK‐Met and Météo‐France models in capturing the underlying processes that drive precipitation events, or lack thereof, across many regions and seasons. Other models exhibit strong performance in specific regions and/or seasons, but not globally. These results advance our understanding of an impact‐based framework in capturing a broad spectrum of extreme weather and climatic events, and inform strategic amalgamation of diverse models across different regions and seasons, thereby offering valuable insights for disaster management and risk analysis.

Prediction models for outcomes in people with low back pain receiving conservative treatment: a systematic review

To identify, critically appraise and evaluate the performance measures of the available prediction models for outcomes in people with low back pain (LBP) receiving conservative treatment. In this systematic review, literature searches were conducted in Embase, Medline, CINAHL from their inception until February/2024. Studies containing follow-up assessment (e.g., prospective cohort studies, registry-based studies) investigating prediction models of outcomes (e.g., pain intensity and disability) for people with LBP receiving conservative treatment were included. Two independent reviewers performed the study selection, the data extraction using the Checklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS), and risk of bias assessment using the Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment (PROBAST). Findings of individual studies were reported narratively taking into account the discrimination and calibration measures of the prediction models. Seventy-five studies developing or investigating the validity of 216 models were included in this review. Most prediction models investigated people receiving physiotherapy treatment and most models included socio-demographic variables, clinical features, and self-reported measures as predictors. The discriminatory capacity of the internal validity of the 27 prediction models for pain intensity varied greatly showing a c-statistic ranging from 0.48 to 0.94. Similarly, the discriminatory capacity for 31 models for disability had the same pattern showing a c-statistic ranging from 0.48 to 0.86. The calibration measures of the internal validity of the prediction models predicting pain intensity and disability showed to be adequate. Only one of three studies testing the external validity of models to predict pain intensity and disability and reported both discrimination and calibration measures, which showed to be inadequate. The prediction models predicting the secondary outcomes (e.g., self-reported recovery, quality of life, return to work) showed varied performance measures for internal validity, and only two studies tested the external validity of models although they did not provide performance the performance measures. Several prediction models have been developed for people with LBP receiving conservative treatment, however most show inadequate discriminatory validity. A few studies externally validated the prediction models and future studies should focus on testing this before implementing in clinical practice.

Point cloud segmentation neural network with same-type point cloud assistance

This paper proposes neural network architectures for point cloud segmentation, which leverage prior knowledge derived from same-type point clouds. The approach involves concurrent processing of two point clouds: a target point cloud necessitating segmentation and a labeled same-type point cloud. The labeled point cloud provides preliminary labeling information, assisting in segmenting the target point cloud. A feature combination module is proposed to identify and combine corresponding features across the point clouds. The module augments the feature representation of the target cloud and improves its capacity for object discrimination. Experiments on the ShapeNetPart and S3DIS datasets demonstrate that when integrated into classical network architectures, the proposed approach can achieve improved segmentation performance over the corresponding networks, significantly in some of them.

Improving plant-based protein drinks: the potential of flavors for cross-modal enhancement of fat perception

Fat perception is a complex phenomenon that influences the sensory experience of beverages. In this study, we explored the role of olfaction and flavor to modulate the fat perception and physical-chemical characteristics of protein-based emulsions with different fat contents. The emulsions consisted of pea protein isolate, canola oil and tap water. Two milky-creamy flavors were used, each with different composition and volatile profile. Our results showed that all fat contents (0, 1.5 and 3.5%) could be differentiated by the panelists. The fat-related creamy, milky, fatty, thickness and mouthcoating attributes had higher scores at higher fat contents, which positively correlated with the lubrication factor. Interestingly, adding flavor or blocking olfaction did not change the discrimination capacity, but the addition of flavor did cause a cross-modal effect on the fat perception. With olfaction, both flavors increased the fat descriptive aroma and mouthfeel attributes. Without olfaction, the taste and mouthfeel attributes were uninfluenced. Moreover, the flavors did not influence the physical-chemical characteristics at these low concentrations. Congruency of the flavor with fat increases the fat perception of the emulsions. Overall, this study suggests that fat congruent flavor can be utilized to modulate the fat perception in protein-lipid drinks, such as plant-based milks.

Performance of a Global Functional Assay Based on Interferon-γ Release to Predict Infectious Complications and Cancer After Kidney Transplantation.

The QuantiFERON-Monitor assay (QTF-Monitor) is intended to assess innate and adaptive immune responses by quantifying interferon (IFN)-γ release upon whole blood stimulation with a TLR7/8 agonist and an anti-CD3 antibody. We performed the QTF-Monitor in 126 kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) at different points during the first 6 post-transplant months. The primary outcome was overall infection, whereas secondary outcomes included bacterial infection, opportunistic infection and de novo cancer. The association between IFN-γ production and outcomes was analyzed as "low" immune responses (<15IU/mL) and as a continuous variable to explore alternative thresholds. There were no significant differences in the occurrence of overall infection according to the QTF-Monitor at any monitoring point. Regarding secondary outcomes, KTRs with a low response at week 2 experienced a higher incidence of bacterial infection (50.8% versus 24.4%; P-value = 0.006). Low response at month 1 was also associated with opportunistic infection (31.6% versus 14.3%; P-value = 0.033). The discriminative capacity of IFN-γ levels was poor (areas under the ROC curve: 0.677 and 0.659, respectively). No differences were observed for the remaining points or post-transplant cancer. In conclusion, the QTF-Monitor may have a role to predict bacterial and opportunistic infection in KTRs when performed early after transplantation.

Construction of nomogram for wound recurrence in elderly patients with venous leg ulcers.

Venous Leg Ulcers (VLUs) are one of the most serious and intractable complications of chronic venous insufficiency. This study aims to develop a nomogram based on a theoretical model to predict the probability of wound recurrence in older patients with VLUs. The elderly patients with VLUs attending the five hospitals between September 2021 and October 2022 were enrolled in this research, and randomized to the training and validation cohorts based on the corresponding ratio (7:3). Recurrent events were recorded during a six-month follow-up after the baseline data collection. The univariate analysis, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression method were used to screen variables, and multiple logistic regression was used to establish a risk prediction model, which was presented by nomogram. Receiver operating curves (ROC), Hosmer-Lemeshow test, as well as calibration curves, were adopted to assess the effectiveness of the nomogram. The prognostic value of the nomogram was also examined. A total of 608 elderly patients with VLUs were included in the study. They were randomly divided into the training cohort (N = 421) and the validation cohort (N = 187). In the training cohort, Lasso regression and multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that previous recurrence number, last ulcer duration, lower extremity DVT history, and frailty were independent risk factors for wound recurrence in elderly patients with VLUs, while daily exercise time and self-efficacy were protective factors. A nomogram was established with a good discrimination capacity and predictive efficiency with and the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.869 (95%CI: 0.831-0.908) in the training set and 0.890 (95%CI: 0.841-0.938) in the validation set. The p values of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test for both sets were 0.887 and 0.772, respectively, both greater than 0.05. The calibration degree charts showed that the data point connection was similar to the diagonal, indicating that the model's prediction probability of wound recurrence in elderly VLUs patients is close to the actual probability. This study constructed a new nomogram to predict the risk of wound recurrence in elderly patients with VLUs. The nomogram has excellent accuracy and reliability, which can help healthcare workers and patients actively monitor and follow up with patients to prevent the recurrence of ulcers and make clinical decisions.

Utility of the triglycerides/HDL cholesterol ratio in older adult patients in Colombia

Abstract Introduction Alterations in lipid metabolism are responsible for atherogenesis and an increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. The triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL-C) is used to assess the risk of cardiovascular diseases; however, it has not been evaluated in older adults. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the TG/HDL-C ratio in elderly patients and analyze its correlation and discriminatory capacity with cardiovascular risk factors according to data from the SABE Colombia survey. Purpose Describe the sociodemographic characteristics, cardiovascular history, lifestyle, and cardiovascular risk score in the older adult population included in the SABE Colombia Study.Describes the distribution of triglyceride levels, cholesterol, and the TAG-HDL ratio in the older adult population included in the SABE Colombia Study. Evaluate the relationship between the TAG/HDL Cholesterol Index and cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension, prediabetes, type 2 diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease Determine if there is a correlation and the degree of correlation between the TAG/HDL Cholesterol ratio and variables related to higher cardiovascular risk and stablish cutoff points of the triglyceride to HDL cholesterol ratio as indicators of the onset of risk factors Materials and Methods Cross-sectional study in adults aged 60 years and older included in the national SABE Colombia survey (National Survey of Health, Well-being, and Ageing conducted in Colombia in 2015), which included 244 municipalities from all departments of the country. A correlation test was performed to assess the presence and degree of correlation between the TAG/HDL index and cardiovascular risk factors, and ROC curve analysis was conducted to evaluate the performance of the TAG/HDL index in identifying risk factors. Results A total of 23,694 patients with the necessary information for the study were included. The median age was 69 years, 57.3% were women, and 34.3% were of white race. 23.5% had hypertension, and 16.4% had diabetes mellitus. 13.4% had a history of cardiovascular disease, and 2.5% had cerebrovascular disease. While the specific correlation between the index and different cardiovascular risk factors is generally low to moderate, good discriminatory capacity was found for diabetes and metabolic syndrome with the following values: diabetes, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.871 and a cut-off point of 9.17; and for metabolic syndrome, the AUC was 0.840, with a cut-off point of 8.81. Conclusions Our findings show that the TG/HDL ratio has intermediate correlation for different cardiovascular risk factors; however, it has excellent predictive ability for the presence of diabetes and metabolic syndrome. These findings are very useful in the clinical evaluation, screening, and detection of cardiovascular risk factors in the population aged 60 years and older in Colombia.Scatter plots of TAG/HDL ratio comparedROC curves for diabetes and metabolic s

Validation of the MIDA mortality risk score in a surgical cohort of patients with primary mitral regurgitation

Abstract Background and aim The MIDA scale is a prognostic tool for stratification of short- and long-term mortality risk in patients with primary mitral regurgitation (PMR). The aim of this study is to validate the MIDA (1) score in our population of PMR treated with surgery. Methods Retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort of patients with PMR who underwent mitral valve surgery in a tertiary care center from 2014 to 2022. The necessary parameters for calculating the MIDA Score (age, symptoms, atrial fibrillation, left atrial diameter, right ventricular systolic pressure (RVSP), left ventricular end-systolic diameter (LVESD), and LV ejection fraction (LVEF)) were collected, and the MIDA score for each patient was calculated. Thereafter, patients were classified into seven different risk groups. One year and long-term mortality during follow-up were recorded. A logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the association of each parameter with outcomes. Finally, curves for the cumulative incidence of all-cause mortality according to the MIDA score were generated with the Kaplan–Meier method. Results A total of 349 patients were included. Mean age was 68.5 [12.4] years, 55.8% were male, and the median LVEF was 60% (55-65). Mean follow up was 3.28 (2) years. One year mortality occurred in 29 (8.3%) patients, and long-term mortality in 59 (16.9%). According to the MIDA score, the distribution of patients in each subgroup was as follows: score 0 (n=28), score 1-2 (n=35), score 3-4 (n=60), score 5-6 (n=99), score 7-8 (n=81), score 9-10 (n=35), score &amp;gt; 11 (n=11). Most of our cohort was classified as intermediate-risk patients, with a median score of 6 (3-8). In the univariable logistic regression analysis, age, symptoms before surgery and RVSP were the only MIDA parameters significantly associated with mortality (Table-Figure 1). In our population, the discriminatory capacity of the MIDA score, was moderate, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.676 CI (0.624-0.725) for one year mortality, and 0.702 (0.651-0.749) for long term mortality. The best cut-off point for predicting one-year and long-term mortality was a MIDA score of 7. Kaplan-Meier curves for mortality during follow-up are shown in Figure 2. Conclusions The MIDA score showed a fair discriminatory capacity in our surgical cohort of patients with PMR. Variables included in the score that had a significant association with mortality were age, presence of symptoms and elevated RVSP. LV parameters included in the MIDA, which are the current class I indication for surgery, did not show a significant association with outcomes. Different echocardiographic variables to evaluate cardiac damage in PMR are needed to achieve better stratification.Table-Figure 1Figure 2

Lower early mortality after acute pulmonary embolism in patients with WHO-defined obesity: results from a post-hoc cohort analysis with external validation

Abstract Background The relationship between obesity, defined as a Body Mass Index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m2, and mortality in venous thrombo-embolism remains controversial. Objectives To compare early outcomes after pulmonary embolism (PE) between obese patients, and non-obese, non-underweight patients. Methods We performed a post-hoc analysis based on prospectively recorded individual patient data from the multicenter BFC-FRANCE registry. We compared rates of outcomes using multivariable logistic regression or a Cox model for 30-day and 6-month outcomes respectively. We assessed the incremental value of adding BMI information on top of the 30-day European Society of Cardiology (ESC) prognostic algorithm. Results A total of 2,390 patients with a BMI ≥ 18.5 kg/m2 (mean age, 66.9±16.8 years; 1,188 men [49.7%]) were included, 686 patients [28.7%] in the obese group, and 1,704 patients [71.3%] in the non-obese group. Mortality rates were significantly lower in obese patients versus non-obese patients at 30 days (OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.35-0.98), and 6 months. Cox-model-derived adjusted curves for all-cause death at 6 months, with hazard ratios (HRs) between obese and non-obese patients, after acute PE, are shown in the Figure. Rates of secondary non-fatal outcomes (including recurrent VTE) did not differ between groups. The addition of the obesity information on top of the ESC prognostic model improved global model fit, and discriminatory and calibration capacities, yielding significant reclassification based on the observed mortality rates with the ESC model as reference. Findings were confirmed in an external validation using 35,796 PE patients from the RIETE registry. Conclusion We present evidence indicating lower early and mid-term mortality after PE in patients classified as obese based on BMI, compared with non-obese, non-underweight patients. BMI should likely be incorporated into algorithms or scoring systems for predicting early mortality following PE.

Troponin/creatine kinase ratio for discrimination of type 1 and type 2 myocardial infarction

Abstract Background High-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) is the laboratory gold-standard to diagnose myocardial infarction (MI). Yet, discrimination between different entities of myocardial injury, i.e. acute and chronic myocardial injury, and Type 1 (T1MI) versus Type 2 MI (T2MI), is still most challenging. Since, management of these entities is substantially different, there is an unmet clinical need for better discrimination. In clinical practice creatine-kinase (CK) is often used to decide whether patients with elevated hs-cTn concentrations are referred to primary invasive coronary angiography. However, it is unclear if the combined evaluation of CK and hs-cTn improves the discrimination between different types of myocardial injury, and MI. Objective Our aim was to evaluate, if the combination hs-cTnI with CK improves discrimination of acute versus chronic myocardial injury, and T1MI versus T2MI. Methods We included patients presenting with suspected MI to the emergency department of a tertiary center. CK and hs-cTnI (Architect STAT) were determined at presentation, and after 1h and 3h. Final diagnoses were adjudicated according to the 4th Universal Definition of MI. STEMI patients were excluded from analyses. We calculated ratios of hs-cTnI and CK for each patient at each timepoint. Receiver-operator-curves with corresponding area under the curve (AUC) were used to assess the discriminative performance and compared with hs-cTnI alone. Logistic regression analysis was applied to calculate odds ratios (OR; 95% confidence intervals) for all ratios as well as hs-cTnI to distinguish T1MI vs T2MI, and chronic injury vs. any acute injury (acute myocardial injury, T1MI, T2MI). ORs are displayed using restricted cubic splines and values were entered log-transformed in the model. Results Of 3346 patients (median age 63 years, 36.4% women), 427 (12.8%) had MI, 103 (3.1%) had acute and 864 (25.8%) chronic injury. Log-transformed ratio of hs-cTnI/CK at presentation resulted in an AUC of 0.75 with an OR per SD for T1MI of 2.74 [2.14, 3.58], which was similar to hs-cTnI alone (AUC 0.76, p=0.75, OR per SD 3.07 [2.35, 4.09]). No significant differences were observed for measurements at 1h and 3h (Figure 1 A-C). Additionally, there was no improvement of discriminative performance regarding the discrimination of chronic and any acute myocardial injury by using hs-cTnI/CK ratios at any timepoint (AUCratio0h 0.77, AUChsTnI0h 0.8, p=0.17; ORratio0h per SD 3.44 [2.96, 4.02], ORhs-cTnI0h per SD 4.35 [3.66, 5.20]) (Fig. 1D-F). Restricted cubic splines show the overlapping correlation of increased propability for T1MI and any acute injury with higher hs-cTnI/CK ratios as well as hs-cTnI alone. (Figure 2). Conclusion The addition of CK to hs-cTnI does not improve discriminative capacity between patients with T1MI and T2MI, as well as between chronic and any acute myocardial injury compared to hs-cTnI alone.Figure 1:ROC curvesFigure 2:Natural cubic splines

Albumin creatinine index added to the grace score increases its discriminative capacity for mortality at 12 years of follow-up in patients with acute coronary syndrome

Abstract introduction There is currently no information on the prognostic value of the GRACE score with the additional addition of the albumin-creatinine index (ABI) for the prediction of very long-term mortality in unselected populations of acute coronary syndromes (ACS). Objectives To evaluate the additive value of the albumin-creatinine index in spontaneous urine sample to the GRACE score for the prediction of 12-year mortality from all causes in an unselected cohort of patients with acute coronary syndrome. Material and methods A prospective cohort study was carried out, which included patients admitted to a Community Hospital with a diagnosis of ACS. These patients had their IAC measured in a single spontaneous urine sample based on the principle of immunoturbidimetry in the first 24 hours of admission. The end point of the analysis was all-cause mortality at follow-up. The GRACE 2.0 score was calculated for all patients in the study. The scores were compared according to the following metrics: their power to discriminate between events and non-events (ROC Areas), calibration or goodness of fit, evaluating the agreement between the proportion of events and non-events expected by both scores observed by Hosmer Lemeshow Test. The comparison between the areas under the ROC Curves was carried out using De Long's test with the MEDCALC program version 19.1.7. The net reclassification index and its 95% CI (GRACE score + IAC/GRACE score) were evaluated. Results 600 patients with ACS were analyzed, with an average age of 64 years. The GRACE score risk subgroups were divided by the established cut-off values: low risk (0 to 108), intermediate (109 to 139) and high risk (greater than 139). The area under the curve of the Grace score for mortality during follow-up was 0.79 (95% CI 0.69-0.89), while the area under the ROC curve of the GRACE + IAC score was 0.81 (95% CI 0.74-0.87). ). Comparing the two areas by the De Long test, the difference was statistically significant (P &amp;lt; 0.0001; 95% CI 0.07- 0.015). On the other hand, contingency tables were developed and the Hosmer Lemeshow Test (goodness of fit) was performed on the GRACE score and the GRACE + IAC score, observing agreement between expected events and non-events, throughout all subgroups of risk. In addition, reclassifications were made into deceased and survivors by applying the GRACE + IAC score on the GRACE score. The net reclassification rate was 28% (95% CI 21-35). The chi square of its Mc Nemar Test was 3.69 p &amp;lt; 0.0002. The absolute comprehensive discriminatory improvement was 0.01 (95% CI 0.009-0.02) and the corresponding relative value was 8.2% (95% CI 7.9-8.5). Conclusions In this unselected ACS cohort, the albumin-creatinine index added to the GRACE score significantly increases its ability to discriminate mortality from all causes in a 12-year follow-up.Comparison between ROC curvesHosmer Lemeshow test

Electrocardiographic criteria for the diagnosis of left ventricular hypertrophy in patients with severe aortic stenosis

Abstract Introduction There is a lack of data regarding the performance of current electrocardiographic (EKG) criteria for left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) in patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS). Purpose To test the performance of the current EKG scores to diagnosis LVH in AS patients, and also to compare the performance of a new proposed score. Methods The present study evaluated 80 patients with severe AS that underwent cardiac magnetic resonance to diagnose LVH, defined as left ventricular indexed mass of 95 g/m² for female and 115 g/m² for male patients. The EKG criteria used for left ventricular hypertrophy were Sokolow-Lyon criteria, Romhilt-Estes point score system, Cornell voltage criteria and Peguero-Lo Presti criteria. Results Among the 80 patients included in analysis, 58.7% were male and the mean age was 64±8 years. There was a high prevalence of comorbidities, highlighting diabetes (32.5%), hypertension (67.5%), atrial fibrillation (5.0%) and coronary artery disease (11.3%). Regarding echocardiogram, the median left ventricle ejection fraction was 64 (56-68)% and the median indexed aortic valve area was 0.43 (0.35-0.49) cm²/m². Cardiac magnetic resonance analysis demonstrated a mean left ventricle mass of 168±55g, and the LVH incidence was 26.3%. Regarding EKG, Strain pattern was found in 49.1% of the patients, Cornell voltage criteria was positive in 51.3%, Sokolow-Lyon criteria in 51.3%, Romhilt-Estes point score system in 42.5% and Peguero-Lo Presti criteria in 61.3%. Discriminative capacity of electrocardiographic criteria for LVH is shown in Figure 1. Peguero-Lo Presti score had the best diagnostic accuracy in the overall population and in male sex (AUC 0.776), while Cornell voltage criteria had the best diagnostic accuracy in female patients (AUC 0.776). Based on linear regression model, the proposed score was created to predict LVH at cardiac magnetic resonance: 48 + (1.3 x Deepest S wave) + (0.5 x S wave in V1 or V2 plus R wave in V5). The proposed score cutoff value of 90.5 mm had a sensitivity of 0.765 and specificity of 0.707 (for male sex: 0.769 and 0.655, respectively; for female sex: 0.750 and 0.759, respectively). Compared to the scores described in the literature, the proposed score had the best area AUC for the overall population (Figure 1), for female and male patients (AUC 0.796, 0.819 and 0.780, respectively). Conclusion In patients with severe AS, the proposed score had the best diagnostic accuracy compared to the scores described in the literature for LVH identification, followed by Peguero-Lo Presti score, even when analyzed based on gender. Besides, the proposed score had also acceptable sensitivity and specificity for LVH detection.AUC of electrocardiographic scores.

Physical activity and sedentary behavior as screening tools for dynapenic abdominal obesity and dynapenic obesity in older adults: A cross-sectional investigation

ObjectiveTo investigate the discriminatory capacity of habitual physical activity (HPA) and sedentary behavior (SB) when screening for dynapenic abdominal obesity (DAO) and dynapenic obesity (DO) in older adults. MethodsA cross-sectional population epidemiological investigation was conducted with 207 older adults. Obesity was diagnosed by high waist circumference and body mass index. Dynapenia was identified through low handgrip-strength. ResultsIn men, the best HPA cutoff points to discriminate DAO and DO were, respectively, 80 minutes/week (sensitivity: 100%; specificity: 71.95%) and 145 minutes/week (sensitivity: 100%; specificity: 54.88%). The best SB value for DAO was 351.43 minutes/day (sensitivity: 100%; specificity: 65.85%) and 400 minutes/day (sensitivity: 100%; specificity: 79.27%) for DO. In women, 150 minutes/week was the best HPA value for both DAO (sensitivity: 75%; specificity: 57.84%) and DO (sensitivity: 90.91%; specificity: 56.76%). The best SB cutoff points for DAO and DO were 381.43 minutes/day (sensitivity: 60%; specificity: 82.35%) and 337.14 minutes/day (sensitivity: 72.73%; specificity: 65.80%), respectively. ConclusionBoth HPA and SB demonstrated discriminatory capacity for screening DAO and DO in the study population.

Arthroscopy has a higher discriminative capacity than MRI in detecting mild cartilage lesions.

To determine whether current magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) could detect superficial cartilage lesions that are observed during diagnostic arthroscopy in patients with knee pain who have not been diagnosed with joint disease. Adult patients with knee pain of unclear origin lasting more than three months, scheduled for a therapeutic/diagnostic arthroscopy were recruited. Demographic and clinical data, pain assessment, MRI imaging, and observations of cartilage damage in the medial femoral condyle during arthroscopic procedure were documented. Patients were categorized based on the presence of cartilage damage assessed via MRI and/or direct visualization. Concordance between these assessments and its variation with age and patient-reported pain were examined. Out of the 95 patients recruited, 48 exhibited lesions in the medial femoral condyle (MFC) during arthroscopic examination, while only 24 of them showed lesions on the MRI scans. The thickness of the cartilage in the MFC was significantly lower in patients with cartilage damage detected by MRI compared with those without. Among patients with cartilage lesions identified during arthroscopy, those also showing lesions on the MRI had lower cartilage thickness and higher Outerbridge score than those without lesions on the MRI. Patients with detectable cartilage damage on the MRI were significantly older and reported higher levels of pain than those with damage detected only by arthroscopic examination. Despite significant technological advancements in MRI, arthroscopy still proves superior in identifying mild structural cartilage lesions that are not identifiable by this technique.

Serum sodium concentration predicting mortality in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage

BackgroundTo date, inconsistent evidence exists on the role of hypernatremia in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) who underwent surgical clipping. We aimed to investigate the association between serum sodium and mortality in these patients. MethodsA cohort study was performed to include adult patients with aSAH who underwent surgical clipping in a university hospital. The primary outcome was follow-up mortality. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used for matching patients’ baseline characteristics. Net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were calculated to assess and compare the reclassification and discrimination capacity of different models. Trends in serum sodium over time were detected by the ordinary least squares model. ResultsOf 618 aSAH patients with surgical clipping during the study period, normal serum sodium was observed in 467 patients (75.6 %), and admission hypernatremia was noted in 151 patients (24.4 %). After adjustment with multivariate regression analysis, patients with hypernatremia had significantly higher odds for follow-up mortality (aOR: 2.86, 95 % CI: 1.54 to 5.30; P = 0.001). PSM analysis observed similar results (aOR: 2.38, 95 % CI: 1.29 to 4.55; P = 0.009). The incorporation of serum sodium during hospitalization markedly enhanced the IDI (P < 0.001) and NRI (P < 0.001) for the prediction of mortality. ConclusionsIn conclusion, the findings from this cohort study of aSAH patients with surgical clipping indicated that serum sodium can be an independent predictive factor of all-cause mortality, and inferior sequelae in aSAH patients. These findings endorsed the importance of managing hypernatremia and monitoring serum sodium in patients with aSAH.