Context. Stars and planets form in regions of enhanced stellar density, subjecting protoplanetary discs to gravitational perturbations from neighbouring stars. Observations in the Taurus star-forming region have uncovered evidence of at least three recent, star-disc encounters that have truncated discs (HV/DO Tau, RW Aurigae, and UX Tau), raising questions about the frequency of such events. Aims. We aim to assess the probability of observing truncating star-disc encounters in Taurus. Methods. We generated a physically motivated dynamical model including binaries and a spatial-kinematic substructure to follow the historical dynamical evolution of the Taurus star-forming region. We used this model to track star-disc encounters and the resulting outer disc truncation over the lifetime of Taurus. Results. A quarter of discs are truncated below 30 au by dynamical encounters, but this truncation mostly occurs in binaries over the course of a few orbital periods, on a timescale ≲0.1 Myr. Nonetheless, some truncating encounters still occur up to the present age of Taurus. Strongly truncating encounters (ejecting ≳10 percent of the disc mass) occur at a rate ∼10 Myr−1, sufficient to explain the encounter between HV and DO Tau ∼0.1 Myr ago. If encounters that eject only ∼1 percent of the disc mass are responsible for RW Aurigae and UX Tau, then they are also expected with encounter rate Γenc ∼ 100–200 Myr−1. However, the observed sample of recent encounters is probably incomplete, since these examples occurred in systems that are not consistent with a random drawing from the mass function. One more observed example would statistically imply additional physics, such as replenishment of the outer disc material. Conclusions. The marginal consistency of the frequency of observed recent star-disc encounters with theoretical expectations underlines the value of future large surveys searching for external structures associated with recent encounters. The outcome of such a survey offers a highly constraining, novel probe of protoplanetary disc physics.