Direction Of Trade Statistics Research Articles

Determinants of illicit capital movement in China‐Africa trade: Evidence of trade misinvoicing

AbstractIllicit financial flows have been an issue of great concern over the past decades due to the challenge they present for economic development in Africa. Illicit financial flows undermine the productivity and growth of African economies as countries lose foreign exchange and tax revenues. Countries lose financial resources needed for development programs, hence undermining social service delivery and retarding poverty reduction. To effectively combat illicit financial flows, it is imperative to examine their determinants. This study seeks to examine the determinants of illicit capital movement in the China‐Africa trade through the mechanisms of trade misinvoicing over the period 1990–2019. The IMF's Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) database is used to estimate trade misinvoicing. Estimates using mirror trade data indicate that both exports of Africa to China and imports from China to Africa are mainly underinvoiced. The net effect shows that trade misinvoicing in the China‐Africa trade results in net illicit capital outflow for about 44% of countries in Africa. The results from panel data regressions indicate that tax evasion is one of the major factors behind misinvoicing in China‐Africa trade. In addition, corruption control is found to reduce export underinvoicing, while political stability reduces both export overinvoicing and import overinvoicing. Export misinvoicing increases with the presence of natural resources in the exporting country. Other factors associated with trade misinvoicing in China‐Africa trade include openness to trade, current account deficit, and real exchange rate. The study suggests ways to reduce trade misinvoicing in China‐Africa trade.

РОССИЙСКИЙ ЭКСПОРТ И ИМПОРТ: ДВУСТОРОННЯЯ АСИММЕТРИЯ В СТАТИСТИКЕ ТОРГОВЫХ ПАРТНЕРОВ

The study was conducted to assess the discrepancies in the statistical accounting of Russian exports and imports of 50 partner countries in terms of trade relations for the period from 2012 to 2019. The work is based on the statistical data of Federal Customs Service of Russia, the database of the International Monetary Fund “Direction of Trade Statistics”, the data of Eurostat “Intra-and Extra-EU Trade” and the CIS Statistical Committee. Statistical methods of analysis were used: calculation of indicators of variation, dynamics, structure, correlation analysis, nonparametric tests for assessing differences between groups. The novelty of the study lies in the use of the indicator of relative export asymmetry to assess discrepancies in the reflection of export and import operations, which is calculated on the basis of the average value between Russian exports and imports of the partner country. This indicator does not give preference to either Russian or partner country accounting. The hypothesis put forward about the dependence of the magnitude of relative asymmetry on the volume of transactions with goods was not confirmed. Discrepancies in the statistical reporting of countries participating in foreign economic activity determine the factors associated with the peculiarities of accounting for foreign trade transactions. Differences in relative asymmetry depend on the country's membership in a particular group. It was most pronounced in the reflection of export operations in non-CIS countries, least of all - in the CIS countries. The level of relative export asymmetry in the period from 2012 to 2019 changed statistically significantly for all groups of countries: in the EU countries and other far-abroad countries it decreased, in the CIS countries it increased.

Ecologically unequal exchange and disparate death rates attributable to air pollution: A comparative study of 169 countries from 1991 to 2017

Ambient air pollution is among the most pressing environmental problems in our contemporary world that poses significant risks to global ecological and public health. This study analyzes cross-national heterogeneities in trajectories of death rates attributable to ambient air pollution. Compiling panel data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, the Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS), and the World Development Indicators, we create a dataset that tracks 169 countries from 1991 to 2017. Using growth curve models (GCMs), we estimate country-specific trajectories of death rates attributable to air pollution, and condition them on time-invariant and time-varying independent variables. The results suggest that while the global death rate attributable to air pollution has been continuously decreasing, there are heterogeneities in countries’ death rate trajectories based on their geographic location and position in the world economy. High-income countries of the global North have perpetually witnessed lower death rates attributable to air pollution compared to middle- and low-income countries of the global South. Moreover, our results indicate that increased export to high-income countries, as a proxy for ecologically unequal exchange, leads to higher death rates from air pollution in middle- and low-income countries.

Time-series dynamics of Baltic trade flows: Structural breaks, regime shifts, and exchange-rate volatility

Aim/purpose – In the decades since their reintegration with the West, the small open economies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have seen their trade flows grow substan- tially. While the mix of trade partners has evolved over time, the region has been affect- ed by various political and economic shocks. This study examines the bilateral trade balances between the Baltic countries and nine partners to investigate whether there have been structural breaks due to political or economic events. Because these events may have been “priced into” exchange rates or increased these rates’ volatility, connections between these variables and trade balances are also considered. Design/methodology/approach – Monthly data beginning in 1994 are taken from the International Monetary Fund’s Direction of Trade Statistics [DOTS]. Trade partners include the Nordic countries of Finland, Sweden, and Norway, as well as Poland, Russia, and the United States and country groupings such as the CIS, Advanced Economies, and the World. Ratios of the export and import values are used to create bilateral trade bal- ances. The Bai–Perron (1998) structural break test is then used to identify “break points” that can classify time periods into regimes. Baltic nominal and real effective exchange rates, both in log changes and as a GARCH-based volatility measure, show whether regimes correspond to competitiveness or risk. Correlations are calculated to show links between bilateral trade balances and real exchange rates. Findings – Each trade balance has at least one structural break; many have more. In fewer than half of the cases do these correspond to specific events such as EU accession or the Global Financial Crisis. Trade with Russia has decreased, particularly for Estonia and Latvia. But many partners with historical ties, such as Estonia-Finland, Latvia- -Sweden, and Lithuania-Poland have more breaks than do other partners (such as Estonia- -Poland). Structural breaks in real exchange-rate returns and volatility do not match those of trade balances, and correlations between returns and trade balances are low. Research implications/limitations – These findings open the door to future research on the macroeconomic and cultural/historical factors behind these trade linkages and any changes in regimes. However, no structural determinants have yet been estimated. Originality/value/contribution – This study isolates changes in trade regimes, which can be further explained by specific events or particular dates. It also shows that variance has changed as well as the mean, but this differs by country and by the partner. Keywords: Trade flows, Baltics, time series, structural breaks. JEL Classification: F14, F4, C1.

Determinants of Foreign Trade in Nepal

This study examines the determinants of foreign trade in Nepal. Exports and imports of Nepal are the dependent variables. The selected independent variables are GDP of Nepal, GDP of trading partners, real effective exchange rate, distance, regional economic integration, per capita GDP of Nepal, per capital GDP of trading partners, economic freedom of Nepal and economic freedom of trading partners. The study is based on secondary data of 21 trading partners of Nepal with 210 observations for the period of 2010 to 2019. The data are collected from the Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) dataset of International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Development Indicator database of World Bank, CEPII gravity data set and the Heritage Foundation. The regression models are estimated to test the impact of various variables on the exports and imports of Nepal. The study showed that GDP of Nepal has a positive impact on exports of Nepal. It indicates that increase in GDP of Nepal leads to increase in exports of Nepal. Similarly, GDP of trading partners has a positive impact on exports. It indicates that increase in GDP of trading partners leads to increase in exports of Nepal. Likewise, distance has a negative impact on exports. It indicates that greater the distance with the trading countries, lower would be the exports of Nepal to those trading partners. Moreover, real effective exchange rate has a positive impact on exports. It indicates that increase in real effective exchange rate leads to increase in exports. In addition, SAFTA membership has a positive impact on exports. It indicates that SAFTA membership leads to increase in exports of Nepal. Furthermore, the study revealed that economic freedom index of trading partners has a positive impact on exports. It indicatesthat increase in economic freedom in dex of trading partners leads to increase in exports of Nepal. In addition, the study shows that GDP of Nepal has a positive impact on imports of Nepal. It indicates that increase in GDP of Nepal leads to increase in imports of Nepal.Similarly, GDP of trading partners has a positive impact on imports. It indicates that increase in GDP of trading partners leads to increase in imports of Nepal. Likewise, distance has a negative impact on imports. It indicates that greater the distance with the trading countries, lower would be the imports of Nepal from those trading partners. Similarly, real effectiveexchange rate has a positive impact on imports. It indicates that increase in real effective exchange rate leads to increase in imports. The study also reveals that GDP per capita differential has a positive impact on imports. It indicates that higher the GDP per capita differential, higher would be the imports of Nepal.

The Determinants of Bilateral Trade within the CEMAC Bloc: Evidence Using the Augmented Gravity Model and the PPML Estimation Technique

Due to the relatively low levels of bilateral trade flows observed within the CEMAC bloc as well as the poor rates of economic growth observed in CEMAC member States, the study aimed to examine the determinants of bilateral trade flows within the CEMAC bloc using the Augmented Gravity model as the main theoretical framework. While secondary data for bilateral trade was obtained from IMF’s Direction of Trade Statistics, secondary data for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population size and investment in fixed capital were obtained from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators and data for distance and CEMAC dummy were obtained from the Institute for Research on the International Economy (CEPII). Using the Pseudo-Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) technique, the results of the study conclude that while GDP of exporting country, GDP of importing country, the existence of a border between exporting country and importing country, population of exporting country, population of importing country, physical capital of exporting country and physical capital of importing country all have positive and significant impact on bilateral trade flows within the CEMAC bloc, distance between exporting country and importing country and the creation of CEMAC as a trade bloc all have negative and significant impact on bilateral trade flows within the CEMAC bloc. Finally, the study recommends that policy makers of the CEMAC trade bloc design and implement policies and measures that are geared towards boosting the GDP of member States, investing in national and regional infrastructural projects, eradicating barriers at their respective borders, investing in the acquisition and transfer of technical and technological skills, harmonizing regional financial, economic, legal and trade policies and improving the business (investment) climate. Keywords: Bilateral Trade, Economic Growth, Augmented Gravity Model, CEMAC, PPML. DOI: 10.7176/JESD/11-16-09 Publication date: August 31 st 2020

MAPPING THE INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE IN SOUTH ASIAN COUNTRIES THROUGH GRUBEL-LLOYD APPROACH: A SPECIAL FOCUS ON THE VEGETABLE TRADE

Global nations are striving for sustainable growth and enhancing the welfare of the society. In the course of development, it is observed that the international trade plays a protuberant role in achieving the above mentioned goals. The intra-industry trade is the stylized fact of the modern trade, which constitutes a considerable portion in the total volume of trade. Against this theoretical background, the present study investigates the level of intra-industry trade with respect to vegetable trade in South Asian countries such as Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. In order to execute the task, secondary data on total volume of export and import of vegetables have been collected from the Direction of Trade Statistics, published by International Monetary Fund and Commodity Trade Data, published by WITS. The study covers the period from 1988 to 2018, which is the recent data available in the above mentioned sources. The analysis of the study involves two folds: at first the specialization of trade has been computed using Helpman and Krugman's (1985) general equilibrium model and the intra-industry trade has been estimated using Grubel-Lloyd Index (1975). The result of the study revealed that both Maldives and Sri Lanka are the net importers of the vegetables as the trade specialization index is negative. At the same time, the average intra-industry trade has been decreasing over the study period in South Asian countries.

New Estimates for Direction of Trade Statistics

In March 2017, the IMF published an upgrade of its Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) dataset. This paper documents the new methodology that has been developed to estimate missing observations of bilateral trade statistics on a monthly basis. The new estimation procedure is founded on a benchmarking method that produces monthly estimates based on official trade statistics by partner country reported at different times and frequencies. In this paper we describe the new estimation methodology. Additional data sources have also been incorporated. We also assess the impact of the new estimates on trade measurement in DOTS at global, regional, and country-specific levels. Finally, we suggest some developments of DOTS to strenghten its relevance for IMF bilateral and multilateral surveillance.

Bienvenida—Maybe: Cuba's Gradual Opening to World Markets

Bienvenida—Maybe:Cuba's Gradual Opening to World Markets Richard E. Feinberg (bio) since the collapse of its former patron, the soviet union, cuba has successfully diversified its international economic relations. Initially, Cuba reached out to Europe and Canada. As a consequence, today Spanish and Canadian firms manage many of the expanding hotel chains in Cuba—making tourism the economy's most dynamic sector. Over the past two decades, Cuba has also forged valuable economic partnerships with major emerging market economies—notably China, Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela. But the success of Cuba's international economic diplomacy has not been matched by an expansion of its internal economy; this contradiction has frustrated its economic partners and slowed the growth of commercial exchange. Similarly, while Cuban diplomats have touted a new openness to foreign investment—even to the point of emphasizing the critical contributions that foreign capital, technology, and markets could make to the Cuban economy—the on-island approval process has proven painfully slow. In a 2016 end-of-year address to the National Assembly, the powerful minister of the economy and planning, Ricardo Cabrisas, made this poignant admission: "We have not achieved the goal, that foreign investment play a fundamental role in the development of the nation, as was proposed in the reform agenda approved during the Sixth Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba [2011]. The current situation requires that all of us act with greater dynamism" (Reinaldo and Concepción 2016). [End Page 305] Cuba's diversification of its international commerce is an evolving process, and bilateral trade imbalances have frustrated expansion. A variety of factors lie behind the near-paralysis in relations with most potential foreign investors and the contradiction between hopeful official statements of intent and lethargic bureaucratic execution. Similarly, there are a variety of obstacles to and opportunities for expanded trade and investment flows, all of which must be confronted if Cuba is to move forward. CUBA DIVERSIFIES ITS INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS1 Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Cuba has opened its economy to the world. The island enjoys normal commercial relations with all but a handful of nations (most notably of course the United States). But its relations with the capitalist democracies of Western Europe have been volatile, plagued by ideological disputes over political and civil rights, contrasting foreign policies, and divergent views on the sanctity of commercial contracts. In contrast, the Cuban government is more comfortable with the economic systems and geopolitical postures of its key emerging market (EM) partners (Mexico being a partial exception, as will be discussed). While EM economies differ substantially among themselves, they have in common strong state sectors that command ownership of productive units (state-owned enterprises) and routinely intervene in private markets. Particularly in the case of Cuba's top two EM economic partners, China and Venezuela, official entities play a leading role in orchestrating international economic relations. In the case of Brazil, the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) seals the major Cuban transactions with its political weight and concessional credit terms. Cuba's EM strategy does not exclude ongoing economic relations with Europe and Canada, who remain important commercial partners. But the current EM tilt signaled an important shift in Cuba's international economic outlook. [End Page 306] Today, approximately 50 percent of Cuban trade (merchandise imports and exports) is with major emerging markets: Venezuela, China, Brazil, Mexico, and Russia. As figure 1 shows very clearly, the EM strategy initially bore fruit: two-way merchandise trade soared from under $2 billion in 2003 to over $8 billion in 2008. However, rather than being the early stage of a vibrant expansion in Cuban commerce, 2008 turned out to be the peak of achievement, after which Cuba's EM trade fell backward. It could not generate the exports required for balanced trading relationships, and its EM partners—tired of extending credits that Cuba proved unable to repay—were not able to develop sufficient on-island investments to generate the value-added exports to anchor sustainable commerce. Click for larger view View full resolution Figure 1. Cuba Merchandise Trade with Emerging Markets, 2000–14, in US$ billions Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), "Direction of Trade Statistics" (www.imf...

INTRA-REGIONAL TRADE IN AFRICA AND THE IMPACT OF CHINESE INTERVENTION: A GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH

1. INTRODUCTIONChina has grown at phenomenal rates in the last few decades. However, in order to sustain these high growth rates, China needs to ensure a steady supply of natural resources like oils, minerals etc. The country's energy demands have more than doubled in the past few decades, leading to increasing pressures for meeting demands for natural resources (Vines et al., 2009; Taylor, 2009). These factors led China to look overseas for sources of mineral resources and could explain the increasing involvement of China in Africa since the late 1990s (Berthelemy, 2011; The Economist, 2008; Mohan, 2008; Marysse and Geenen, 2009; Kaplinsky, McCormick and Morris, 2006; Meier zu Selhausen, 2010). The NYU Wagner School Study concluded that 'China's foreign aid is driven primarily by the need for natural resources' (Lum et al., 2009, p. 5). Similarly, Foster et al. (2008) conclude that 'most Chinese government-funded projects in Sub-Saharan Africa are ultimately aimed at securing a flow of Sub-Saharan Africa's natural resources for export to China.'China-Africa trade has increased sharply since 2000. China's bilateral trade with Africa grew from USD 11 billion in 2000 to about USD 170 billion in 2011 (Direction of Trade Statistics, IMF, 2012). China has gradually progressed from one of the smallest among the top 10 trading partners of Africa to become its leading bilateral trade partner.1 To promote trade with the continent, China removed tariffs on 196 types of imports from 28 least developed Africa countries in 2005. By 2007, this had expanded to 454 items (Besada, Wang, and Whalley, 2008). Most African exports now receive duty-free access to China's market. These preferential tariff treatments have helped expand African exports to China.But most of the products for which China grants tariff exemption are principally raw materials. Thus, most of the increased trade flows represent a rising export of natural resources to China. About two-thirds of all African exports to China are oil and oil-related products.2 Africa showed a USD 20 billion trade surplus with China in 2011. But more than three-quarters of the continent's exports were oil, gas, metals and minerals from only five countries - Sudan, Angola, Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa. Excluding oil exports, Africa had a trade deficit with China amounting to USD 28 billion in 2011.3 Thus, the growth of African exports to China is driven by a very few countries. Apart from these few very resource-rich countries, the majority of African countries have 'mounting trade deficits' with China (Corkin, and Burke, 2006). This highlights the asymmetry of the relationship between China and African countries.Chinese investment in Africa has also increased dramatically. From USD 20 million per year in the early 1990s, Chinese FDI in Africa jumped close to USD 100 million in 2000 and reached more than USD 1 billion in 2006 (Zafar, 2007). Most of these investments are focused on long-term access to raw materials. Five resource-rich African countries - South Africa, Nigeria, Zambia, Algeria, and Sudan accounted for 87 percent of Chinese FDI inflows on average during the four year period of 2005 to 2008 (Meier zu Selhausen, 2010). Eisenman (2012) argues that almost all of Chinese investment into rail projects in Africa is aimed at connecting African raw material suppliers with Chinese buyers and Chinese goods manufacturers with African customers.Since the late 1990s China's aid to Africa has also increased significantly. There's no consensus in the literature so far regarding the determinants of Chinese aid to Africa. While Naim (2007) argues that political and commercial interests are the principle determinants of Chinese aid to Africa, Dreher and Fuchs (2011) argue that China is no different from other donors and Chinese aid allocations are not dominated by natural resource considerations. However, a large number of studies do suggest that Chinese aid is increasingly directed towards resource-rich Sub-Saharan African economies (Kaplinsky, and Morris, 2009; Brookes, and Shin, 2006). …

Indices of Trade Partner Concentration for 183 Countries

Trade partner concentration can be used to operationalize important concepts like dependency and globalization, but it can be very time-consuming to calculate concentration indices. In research for which export, import, or total trade partner concentration would be useful as one among many variables but is not the primary variable of interest, potential users of concentration indices are likely to be deterred by the high level of commitment required to process the raw data. In addition, the expense of acquiring the raw data can be a deterrent to some scholars. To address these problems and broaden access to data we report seven indices of export, import, and trade partner concentration for all 183 countries for which data are readily available for the years 1980-2008. The raw data underlying the indices are drawn from the International Monetary Fund's Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) database. Details of data preparation and index construction are provided and basic characteristics of the resulting concentration indices described. The indices presented here are likely to find use in regression-based and time-trend studies of the structure and political economy of the contemporary world-system.

Assessing Systemic Trade Interconnectedness: An Empirical Approach

The paper focuses on systemically important jurisdictions in the global trade network, complementing recent IMF work on systemically important financial sectors. Using the IMF's Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) database and network analysis, the paper develops a framework for ranking jurisdictions based on trade size and trade interconnectedness indicators using data for 2000 and 2010. The results show a near perfect overlap between the top 25 systemically important trade and financial jurisdictions, suggesting that these ought to be the focus of risk-based surveillance on cross-border spillovers and contagion. In addition, a number of extensions to the approach are developed that can provide a better understanding of trade dynamics at the bilateral, regional, and global levels.

Assessing Systemic Trade Interconnectedness - an Empirical Approach

The paper focuses on systemically important jurisdictions in the global trade network, complementing recent IMF work on systemically important financial sectors. Using the IMF’s Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) database and network analysis, the paper develops a framework for ranking jurisdictions based on trade size and trade interconnectedness indicators using data for 2000 and 2010. The results show a near perfect overlap between the top 25 systemically important trade and financial jurisdictions, suggesting that these ought to be the focus of risk-based surveillance on cross-border spillovers and contagion. In addition, a number of extensions to the approach are developed that can provide a better understanding of trade dynamics at the bilateral, regional, and global levels.

Iran and the Great Sanctions Debate

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. See “Chicken Soup Diplomacy,” National Journal, January 4, 1997, pp. 13–17 and David L. Boren and Edward J. Perkins, Preparing America's Foreign Policy for the 21 st Century (Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press, 1999), p. 219. 2. See Meghan L. O'Sullivan, Shrewd Sanctions: Statecraft and State Sponsors of Terrorism (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 2003). 3. For more on the normalization of U.S.–Vietnam relations, see Raymond F. Burghardt, “Old Enemies Become Friends: U.S. and Vietnam,” Brookings Northeast Asia Commentary, no. 3, November 2006, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2006/11southeastasia_burghardt.aspx. 4. International Monetary Fund, “Direction of Trade Statistics,” Web site, 2009, http://www2.imfstatistics.org/DOT/. 5. See George Lopez and David Cortright, “Containing Iraq: Sanctions Worked,” Foreign Affairs 83, no. 4 (July/August 2004):1–14. 6. Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act of 1986, Public Law 99–440, 99th Cong., 2nd sess. (October 2, 1986), http://actrav.itcilo.org/actrav-english/telearn/global/ilo/guide/antia.htm. 7. See O'Sullivan, Shrewd Sanctions, p. 392 and Tim Niblock, Pariah States and Sanctions in the Middle East: Iraq, Libya, Sudan (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2001), p. 208. 8. In 1998, after the election of President Mohammad Khatami, the Clinton administration sought to extend an opening for dialogue with Tehran through a speech by Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. See Madeleine Albright, “Remarks at 1998 Asia Society Dinner,” Waldorf-Astoria Hotel, New York, June 17, 1998, http://www.aghayan.com/alb061798.htm. 9. See J. Dumbrell, “The Bush Administration, US public diplomacy and Iran” (working paper, School of Government and International Affairs, Durham University, Durham, 2007). http://dro.dur.ac.uk/4123/1/51832.pdf. 10. UN Security Council Resolution 1929, SS/9948, June 9, 2010, http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2010/sc9948.doc.htm. 11. See U.S. Treasury, Office of Foreign Assets Control, “Iran Sanctions Summary,” Web site, http://www.treas.gov/offices/enforcement/ofac/programs/iran/iran.shtml;Prime Minister Stephen Harper of Canada press release, Ottawa, Canada, July 26, 2010, http://pm.gc.ca/eng/media.asp?id=3553; Prime Minister Stephen Smith of Australia, “Australia Imposes New Broad-Ranging Sanctions Against Iran,” media release, July 29, 2010, http://www.foreignminister.gov.au/releases/2010/fa-s100729.html; and, Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act of 2010, Public Law 111-195, 111th Cong., 1st sess. (July 1, 2010). 12. See Office of the Press Secretary, The White House, “Statement from the President on Iran,” June 20, 2009, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Statement-from-the-President-on-Iran/. 13. See Carola Hoyos and Javier Blas, “Total Joins Petrol Embargo of Iran as Sanctions Loom,” Financial Times, June 28, 2010. 14. See “Pakistan's PM Announces Energy Policy to Tackle Crisis,” April 22, 2010, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8637454.stm. 15. Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao of India expressed concern that the U.S. unilateral sanctions might “have a direct and adverse impact on Indian companies and more importantly on our energy security.” See Amol Sharma, “US Sanctions Could India-Iran Projects,” Wall Street Journal, July 19, 2010. 16. According to analysts, Iran has decreased its dependence on imports for refined products from 40 percent to 30 percent in the last four years. See Thomas Erdbrink and Colum Lynch, “Iran is Ready for Planned US Sanctions Targeting Fuel Imports, Analysts Say,” Washington Post, June 24, 2010, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/23/AR2010062303770.html. 17. See “Under Congressional Pressure, Albright Extends Ban on U.S. Travel to Libya,” Middle East Economic Survey XLIII, no. 49, December 3, 2000. Additional informationNotes on contributorsMeghan L. O'SullivanMeghan L. O'Sullivan is the Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs at Harvard University's Kennedy School and a senior adjunct fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. She was Deputy National Security Advisor for Iraq and Afghanistan and Special Assistant to President George W. Bush from 2004–2007. She is also the author of Shrewd Sanctions (Brookings, 2003) and an editorial board member of TWQ.

World-Economy Centrality and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: A New Look at the Position in the Capitalist World-System and Environmental Pollution

With the ever-growing concern of climate change, much attention has been paid to the factors driving carbon dioxide emissions. Previous research in the World-Systems perspective has identified a relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and position in the world-economy. This study intends to build on the previous research by developing a new, more parsimonious indicator of World-System position based on Immanuel Wallerstein’s theoretical concepts of incorporation and core-periphery processes. The new World-System indicator is derived from the centrality measure in network analysis based on import data from the International Monetary Fund’s Direction of Trade Statistics. Based on the theoretical concepts of core-periphery processes, carbon dioxide emissions are predicted to rise based on the predominance of energy-intensive, high-technology, core processes within the nation. The results tend to demonstrate a strong relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and position in the world-economy, and the new World-System position indicator is more strongly related with carbon dioxide emissions than Gross Domestic Product per capita.

The Economic Utility of Foreign Language Study

This study applies economic utility theory to the question of why students choose to learn a specific foreign language (FL). Economic utility, a basic theory of economics, explains the preference of a consumer for a given product. To measure utility, we surveyed 84 graduate business students about their reasons for studying 1 of the 8 languages offered at Thunderbird, The American Graduate School of International Management. We compared their responses with economic indicators such as the gross domestic product (GDP), population, GDP per capita, corporate job opportunities, direction of trade statistics, and most active big emerging markets. According to the indicator, different languages assume economic importance. The study, although limited in scope by sample size, yields insight into the real and perceived costs and benefits of learning a FL.

The Economic Utility of Foreign Language Study

This study applies economic utility theory to the question of why students choose to learn a specific foreign language (FL). Economic utility, a basic theory of economics, explains the preference of a consumer for a given product. To measure utility, we surveyed 84 graduate business students about their reasons for studying 1 of the 8 languages offered at Thunderbird, The American Graduate School of International Management. We compared their responses with economic indicators such as the gross domestic product (GDP), population, GDP per capita, corporate job opportunities, direction of trade statistics, and most active big emerging markets. According to the indicator, different languages assume economic importance. The study, although limited in scope by sample size, yields insight into the real and perceived costs and benefits of learning a FL.

Improving the Estimation Methodology of Monthly Data in Direction of Trade Statistics

The quality of the estimated data in DOTS depends on the availability and accuracy of direction of trade reports and the estimation methodology. Because of the low coverage of monthly reporting, the estimating procedure plays a role of increased importance. This study, however, reveals two deficiencies in current DOTS estimation methodology: The information on total trade in IFS is not efficiently used, and the assumed uniform 10 percent CIF/FOB factor is inappropriate. Accuracy would be improved if IFS total trade were allocated, when available, according to the shares of total trade derived from partner data; and the uniform 10 percent CIF/FOB factors were replaced by adjustment factors derived from historical data.

Improving the Estimation Methodology of Monthly Data in Direction of Trade Statistics

The quality of the estimated data in DOTS depends on the availability and accuracy of direction of trade reports and the estimation methodology. Because of the low coverage of monthly reporting, the estimating procedure plays a role of increased importance. This study, however, reveals two deficiencies in current DOTS estimation methodology: The information on total trade in IFS is not efficiently used, and the assumed uniform 10 percent CIF/FOB factor is inappropriate. Accuracy would be improved if IFS total trade were allocated, when available, according to the shares of total trade derived from partner data; and the uniform 10 percent CIF/FOB factors were replaced by adjustment factors derived from historical data.

PROSPECTS OF TRADE EXPANSION IN THE SAARC REGION

The Developing EconomiesVolume 30, Issue 1 p. 3-23 Free Access PROSPECTS OF TRADE EXPANSION IN THE SAARC REGION Mangat Ram AGGARWAL, Mangat Ram AGGARWALSearch for more papers by this authorPosh Raj PANDEY, Posh Raj PANDEYSearch for more papers by this author Mangat Ram AGGARWAL, Mangat Ram AGGARWALSearch for more papers by this authorPosh Raj PANDEY, Posh Raj PANDEYSearch for more papers by this author First published: March 1992 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1746-1049.1992.tb00001.xCitations: 2 We are grateful to Professor V. R. Panchmukhi, Director, Research and Information System for the Non-Aligned and Other Development Countries, New Delhi; Professor P. R. Bramhananda, National Fellow, ICSSR, New Delhi; and anonymous referees for their scholarly comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Our thanks are also due to Professor Vikas Mishra and the senior most Professor T. N. Kapoor for their very useful and incisive comments. AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat References 1 Allen, R. L. Integration in Less Developed Areas, Kyklos, Vol. 14, Fasc. 3 (1961). 2 Anderson, K. Prospects of Trade Growth among Pacific Basin Countries, Developing Economies, Vol. 21, No. 4 (December 1983). 3 Balassa, B. The Theory of Economic Integration ( London : George Allen and Unwin, 1962). 4 Balassa, B. 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