Model Of Directed Technical Change Research Articles

Global directed technical change model with fiscal and monetary policies, and public debt

We develop an endogenous growth model with North–South interactions, monetary policy, and a multi-dimensional role for fiscal policy. To boost economic performance, the government of the less developed country subsidizes R&D and intermediate goods production. Besides, to account for the effects of excessive public debt, we introduce a negative externality on productivity and a risk premium effect. Our findings reveal that the steady-state growth rate of both economies depends positively on the subsidies in the South and negatively on the public debt’s externality on productivity and the risk premium affecting the indebted economy. Additionally, public debt externalities increase the equilibrium wage inequality, making it more significant in the South. To minimize these effects, both countries can agree to mutualize their debts to overcome the risk premium. Then, the economy’s steady-state growth rate would increase in both countries. Finally, several policy implications were retrieved.

The non-rivalry of data, directed technical change and the environment: A theoretical study incorporating data as a production factor

With the evolution of digital technology, data is considered a new input factor. To investigate the impact of the degree of application and non-rivalry of data on technical change and the environment, we introduce data as a production factor into the production function and develop a two-sector directed technical change model. More importantly, we introduce non-rivalry in data use, enabling its use across sectors. The relevant results are threefold. (1) Data alone cannot avoid environmental disaster; what is worse, the application of data will accelerate environmental degradation. (2) Only in combination with environmental regulations can data play a positive role. In such case, the application of data will accelerate the rise of environmental quality. (3) Conversely, the non-rivalry has a positive effect without environmental regulations while a negative effect with environmental regulations.

Impact of inter-country corruption differences on wages and economic growth

Theoretically and numerically, this paper attempts to examine the macroeconomic effects of corruption by using the two-country directed technical change model. At a single-country level, an increase in corruption levels in one country leads to an intra-country decrease in the demand for labor and wages and a permanent slowdown of technological-knowledge progress and economic growth. At the inter-country level, a country-specific increase in corruption enlarges inter-country wage and technological-knowledge gaps. Overall, higher corruption levels in one country are detrimental to global economic growth. Through calibration, it is shown that when the differences between the corruption of non-corrupt and corrupt countries increase: (1) economic growth is mainly stimulated in the corrupt countries India, Mexico, and Brazil; (2) the lowest wage inequality compared to non-corrupt countries is observed in the corrupt countries Greece, Portugal, and Spain.

Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation

Abstract I develop a directed technical change model of economic growth and energy efficiency in order to study the impact of climate change mitigation policies on energy use. I show that the standard Cobb–Douglas production function used in the environmental macroeconomics literature overstates the reduction in cumulative energy use that can be achieved with a given path of energy taxes. I also show that, in the model, the government combines energy taxes with research and development (R&D) policy that favors output-increasing technology—rather than energy efficiency technology—to maximize welfare subject to a constraint on cumulative energy use. In addition, I study energy use dynamics following sudden improvements in energy efficiency. Exogenous shocks that increase energy efficiency also decrease the incentive for subsequent energy efficiency R&D and increase long-run energy use relative to a world without the original shock. Subsidies for energy efficiency R&D, however, permanently alter R&D incentives and decrease long-run energy use.

The effects of automation and lobbying in wage inequality: a directed technical change model with routine and non-routine tasks

The effects of automation and lobbying in wage inequality: a directed technical change model with routine and non-routine tasks

Effects of monetary policy on the skill premium and the growth rate in a directed technical change model with heterogeneous cash‐in‐advance constraints

AbstractThis article analyses the balanced‐growth‐path effects of monetary policy (inflation) on the skill premium and the growth rate in the context of a directed technical change model with cash‐in‐advance (CIA) constraints specific to the unskilled and skilled sectors. Calibrating the model using data from 36 countries, the presence of more stringent CIA constraints in the unskilled sector, as supported by the literature, causes inflation to have a positive effect on the skill premium. Moreover, it also increases the negative impact of inflation on the growth rate in relation to the baseline scenario of homogeneous CIA constraints. A lower labour share and higher inflation in general magnify these effects on both variables while a relative lower importance of the unskilled sector does the opposite with respect to the skill premium. Therefore this article innovates in three important ways: (i) we add an additional channel through which inflation affects inequality; (ii) we highlight the importance of avoiding ignoring differences of liquidity constraints across the economy in the context of endogenous growth models to not underestimate the negative long‐run impacts of inflation; (iii) the results suggest that developing countries that have difficulty in achieving price stability in the long‐run can mitigate the negative effects of inflation by reducing constraints faced by the unskilled sector and promoting the development of the skilled sector.

Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation

In the United States, rising energy efficiency, rather than the use of less carbon-intensive energy sources, has driven the decline in the carbon intensity of output. Thus, understanding how environmental policy will affect energy efficiency should be a primary concern for climate change mitigation. In this paper, I evaluate the effect of environmental taxes on energy use in the United States. To do so, I construct a putty-clay model of directed technical change that matches several key features of the data on U.S. energy use. The model builds upon the standard Cobb-Douglas approach used in climate change economics in two ways. First, it allows the elasticity of substitution between energy and non-energy inputs to differ in the short and long run. Second, it allows for endogenous and directed technical change. In the absence of climate policy, the new putty-clay model of directed technical change and the standard Cobb-Douglas approach have identical predictions for long-run energy use. The reactions to climate policies, however, differ substantially. In particular, the new putty-clay model of directed technical change suggests that a 6.9-fold energy tax in 2055 is necessary to achieve policy goals consistent with the 2016 Paris Agreement and that such a tax would lead to 6.8% lower consumption when compared to a world without taxes. By contrast, the standard Cobb-Douglas approach suggests that a 4.7-fold tax rate in 2055 is sufficient, which leads to a 2% decrease in consumption. Thus, compared to the standard approach, the new model predicts that greater taxation and more forgone consumption are necessary to achieve environmental policy goals.

How powerful are fiscal and monetary policies in a directed technical change model with humans and robots?

AbstractWe develop a dynamic general equilibrium model where robots can be substituted for unskilled labour and public authorities can use fiscal and monetary policies to influence the macroeconomic aggregates. We show that an increase in the use of robots increases the competitiveness of the unskilled sector and decreases the technological knowledge gap. However, under substitutability, unskilled workers are replaced by robots, and due to the magnitude of this effect the wage inequality increases. To mitigate this impact, public authorities can resort to fiscal and monetary policies. For instance, taxation on robots will induce the substitution of robots by unskilled labour, thus benefiting the unskilled labour—relative employment and wages.

Energy mix, financial development, and carbon emissions in China: a directed technical change perspective.

Based on a two-sector (clean energy and dirty energy) model of directed technical change, we examine the relationship between carbon emissions, clean energy consumption, and financial development in China using the ARDL method. The results show that clean energy consumption reduces carbon emissions effectively but the effect of financial development is opposite, suggesting that financial development increases carbon emissions, contradicting the findings of many existing studies. Then, we decompose financial development on carbon emissions into two different effects: substitution and income effects. The substitution effect reflects more dirty energy consumption as a result of directed technological change promoted by financial development, leading to more carbon emissions. The income effect results in a decline in carbon emissions because financial development enables firms to use more clean energy. The empirical results indicate that the net effect of financial development has caused more carbon emissions and a 1% increase in financial development results in a 0.45-0.79% increase in carbon emissions. The policy implication is also discussed.

The Oscar goes to … robots or humans? Competition in a directed technical change model with monetary policy

ABSTRACT In this paper, the Directed Technical Change model was extended to consider robotics and the monetary authority. Production, in two sectors, uses human labor and robotic labor, in addition to the intermediate goods where technological knowledge is incorporated. It resulted that the growth-inflation relationship is negative (positive) when there is substitutability (complementarity) between sectors. In addition, a relaxation of the CIA's restrictions on one sector promotes an improvement in technological knowledge of that sector and in the remuneration of the labor it uses. Both the direction of technological knowledge and the relative return on human labor depend positively on the relative importance of the human sector in the economy, the relative productivity of the human sector in R&D, and the increasing financial constraints for R&D producers in the robotic sector relative to the human sector. Finally, a numerical analysis gave an idea of the relative remuneration of human labor in the eurozone and allows the evaluation of theoretical results.

Directed Technical Change and the British Industrial Revolution

We build a directed technical change model where one intermediate goods sector uses a fixed quantity of biomass energy (“wood”) and another uses coal at a fixed price, matching stylized facts for the British Industrial Revolution. Unlike previous research, we do not assume the level or growth rate of productivity is inherently higher in the coal-using sector. Analytically, greater initial wood scarcity, initial relative knowledge of coal-using technologies, and/or population growth will boost an industrial revolution, while the converse may prevent one forever. An industrial revolution, with eventual dominance by the coal-using sector, is the model’s main dynamic outcome, but not inevitable if inter-good substitutability is high enough. Empirical calibration for 1560–1900 produces historically plausible results for changes in energy-related variables during British industrialization, and through counterfactual simulations confirms that it was the growing relative scarcity of wood caused by population growth that resulted in innovation to develop coal-using machines.

The role of intellectual property rights in a directed technical change model

AbstractWe propose a two country, Innovator and Follower, directed technical change model between tradable and nontradable sectors. The Innovator performs innovative R&D and the Follower adopts the available technological knowledge. Substitutability between sectors, scale effects, international IPRs protection and R&D productivity determine the economic growth and the technological‐knowledge bias, which, in turn, affects relative prices and wages. Wages are higher in the Innovator, namely in the nontradable sector under strong substitutability. Technological‐knowledge and intra‐country wage inequality are biassed towards the tradable sector, the effect being reinforced by positive IPRs protection and substitutability. Real exchange rates accommodate the Balassa‐Samuelson proposal and increase with positive IPRs protection and substitutability. The effect of IPRs on the steady‐state growth rate is ambiguous, depending on the substitutability. Theoretical results are also influenced by labor movements and are confirmed by a calibrated exercise for 11 developed/Innovator countries and 11 developing/Follower countries, and by the empirical evidence.

The Impact of Credit Constraints on Tradable and Non-Tradable R&D Investments in Portugal

We develop a directed technical change model with two sectors, tradable and non-tradable, and dynamic firms’ decisions to invest in R&D in the presence of financial constraints. The model establishes a linkage between R&D decisions, product and process innovations, future productivity, profits, and credit constraints. The model is estimated using Portuguese firms’ data of the tradable and non-tradable sectors. We find that the previous R&D investments raises the innovating probabilities, the innovating probabilities are higher in the tradable sector, and the startup costs of innovation tend to be higher than the maintenance costs. The results also show complementary between the R&D benefits and the firm’s financial strength, diminishing marginal returns to capital on innovation benefits, and high heterogeneity of the innovation costs across industries. Finally, when the firms’ financial strength and the trade-off between tradable and non-tradable goods are considered, the R&D benefits in the non-tradable sector do not compensate its cost given the higher productivity and innovation probabilities of the tradable sector. As a result, the R&D investments in the tradable sector illustrates a misallocation of financial resources.

Directed technical change and environmental quality

We propose a directed technical change model with two sectors, clean and dirty, to analyze the impact of the degree of substitutability between sectors and the degree of scale effects on the environmental quality. The technological knowledge is biased towards the clean sector; i.e., the environmental quality is improved whenever the elasticity of substitution between inputs in both sectors increases and, along with that, the economy: (i) is rich in renewable capital, (ii) has higher relative supply of clean labor under scale effects, and (iii) enjoys higher relative R&D productivity in the clean sector. The improvement in the environmental quality benefits the welfare. Moreover, the growth rate is higher in the presence of scale effects.

Engel's Law in the Global Economy: Demand‐Induced Patterns of Structural Change, Innovation, and Trade

Endogenous demand composition across sectors due to income elasticity differences, or Engel's Law for brevity, affects (i) sectoral compositions in employment and in value‐added, (ii) variations in innovation rates and in productivity change across sectors, (iii) intersectoral patterns of trade across countries, and (iv) product cycles from rich to poor countries. Using a two‐country model of directed technical change with a continuum of sectors under nonhomothetic preferences, which is rich enough to capture all these effects as well as their interactions, this paper offers a unifying perspective on how economic growth and globalization affect the patterns of structural change, innovation, and trade across countries and across sectors in the presence of Engel's Law. Among the main messages is that globalization amplifies, instead of reducing, the power of endogenous domestic demand composition differences as a driver of structural change.

Directed Technical Change and the British Industrial Revolution

We build a directed technical change model of the British Industrial Revolution where one intermediate goods sector uses a fixed renewable energy (“wood”) quantity, and another uses coal at a fixed price. With a high enough elasticity of substitution between the two goods in producing final output, an industrial revolution, where over time the coal-using sector grows relative to the wood-using sector and its growth accelerates, is not inevitable. However, greater initial scarcity of wood and/or higher population growth puts the economy on a path to an industrial revolution. The converse slows industrialization, or even prevents it forever.

Industry Concentration and Wage Inequality: a Directed Technical Change Approach

Despite several theoretical approaches linking rising market power to more income inequality, a theoretical-based empirical quantification of this relationship has not been made. We devised a directed technical change model and characterize this relationship. To test our model, we calculate concentration indexes and relate them with skill-premium using industry data per country for 40 countries from 1995 to 2011. In general, we show a negative and robust relationship between the market power index and wage inequality. Additional evidence shows that results tend to be different for countries with different income levels and for different initial values of skill-premium and market power.

CARBON LOCK‐IN: THE ROLE OF EXPECTATIONS

AbstractWe argue that expectations about future energy use affect the transition from fossil to renewables because of an interaction between innovation and resource scarcity. This article presents a model of directed technical change to study this interaction. We find that fossil‐saving technical change erodes the incentives to implement renewables. Conversely, the anticipation of a transition to renewables diminishes the incentives to invest in fossil technology. As a result, two equilibria may arise, one with a transition to renewables and with low fossil efficiency and one without renewables and with high fossil efficiency. Expectations determine which equilibrium arises.

The role of IPRs on prices, wages and growth in a two country directed technical change model

Abstract We develop a two country, Innovator and Follower, directed technical change model between tradable and nontradable sectors. The Innovator performs innovative R&D. The Follower imitates, in a pre-trade context, and adopts, in a trade scenario, the available technological knowledge. We start by considering the pre-trade context and then we analyze the trade scenario. In both regimes – imitation and adoption – and in BGP, international IPRs protection, R&D productivity, scale-effects intensity and substitutability between sectors determine the stable and unique worldwide economic growth rate and the technological-knowledge bias, which, in turn, affects relative prices and wages. Depending on IPRs protection, imitation and adoption can either amplify or slow down the technological-knowledge bias and thus the real exchange rate, the wage inequality and the worldwide growth rate. For example, under technological-knowledge adoption with positive international IPRs protection and substitutability, wages tend to be higher in the Innovator, technological knowledge and intra-country wage inequality are biased towards the tradable sector, and the real exchange rate accommodates the Balassa-Samuelson proposal.

Directed technical change with capital-embodied technologies: Implications for climate policy

We develop a theoretical model of directed technical change in which clean (zero-emissions) and dirty (emissions-intensive) technologies are embodied in long-lived capital stocks. Switching from dirty to clean innovation leads to ongoing reductions in the relative costs of producing clean investment goods, making them ever cheaper to purchase and so encouraging clean investment. At the same time, falling replacement costs imply falling asset values. Consequently, continuing innovation in capital-embodied clean technologies also generates obsolescence costs, which are borne by users of clean capital. The negative effect of obsolescence costs on demand for clean investment and consequently on the speed of transition to clean growth has been neglected in the literature on directed technical change.We show theoretically and using numerical simulations that optimal policies differ in our model of embodied technological change, relative to an otherwise comparable model of disembodied technological change. With embodied technologies: (i) optimal emissions taxes start higher and rise faster; (ii) much higher clean research and development subsidies are required to effect the switch to clean innovation; and (iii) climate damages under optimal policies are greater. We suggest that more attention should be paid to the role of obsolescence costs in modelling transitional effects of climate policies.