Direct Trade Research Articles

Statistical Predictions of Trading Strategies in Electronic Markets

We build statistical models to describe how market participants choose the direction, price, and volume of orders. Our dataset, which spans 16 weeks for four shares traded in Euronext Amsterdam, contains all messages sent to the exchange and includes algorithm identification and member identification. We obtain reliable out-of-sample predictions and report the top features that predict direction, price, and volume of orders sent to the exchange. The coefficients from the fitted models are used to cluster trading behavior and we find that algorithms registered as Liquidity Providers exhibit the widest range of trading behavior among dealing capacities. In particular, for the most liquid share in our study, we identify three types of behavior that we call (i) directional trading, (ii) opportunistic trading, and (iii) market making, and we find that around one-third of Liquidity Providers behave as market markers.

Hybrid multi-stage steel footprinting unveils a more interdependent material foundation of the global economy

Steel is foundational to modern society, yet tracking its socio-economic metabolism is challenging due to the complex global trade networks. Traditional indicators, such as domestic material consumption (DMC) and consumption-based material footprints (MF), typically focus on metal ore extraction, overlooking the multiple stages of steel production and consumption. To address this, we integrate multi-national anthropogenic steel cycles and international trade networks of steel-containing products into a global monetary multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model. We construct material efficiency indicators based on footprints of iron ores, crude steel, castings, finished steel, and fabricated steel products, comparing them with conventional economy-wide material flow indicators like domestic material production (DMP) and DMC. Our findings reveal that per capita multi-stage MF indicators exhibit more robust log-linear relationships with per capita GDP with an average R2 value of 0.72 compared to 0.10 and 0.18 for DMP and DMC. Shares of Embodied trade in total global production exceed direct trade by 24 percentage points on average, emphasizing the significance of international embodied metal transfers. Using multi-stage MF indicators also reduces disparities in material efficiency between developed and developing countries. This study unravels the intricacies of global steel supply chains and the true interdependencies of steel-containing products among countries.

MIDDLEMEN IN SEARCH EQUILIBRIUM WITH INTENSIVE AND EXTENSIVE MARGINS

AbstractWe study endogenous intermediation activity, the implied transaction pattern—direct trade, indirect trade, or both—and implications for efficiency. Related papers have agents exchanging indivisible goods or assets, capturing only extensive margins (trade frequency). To capture intensive margins, we incorporate divisibility representing quantity or quality. We characterize equilibrium, show how it depends on bargaining powers and costs, and how intensive margins matter—for example, middlemen with high bargaining power may charge more but offer higher quantity/quality, thus improving welfare. A tax‐subsidy policy is designed to achieve efficiency. A monetary version lets us compare money and middlemen and further discuss policy.

Noël Danycan “Across the World”

During the first years of France’s direct trade to the South Pacific, the enticement of the Pacific trade's riches caused constant alliances and disputes between French merchants. Their eagerness to profit from the abundant riches of Peru and China drove French merchants, financiers, bankers, and even royal authorities into constant conflict. On one side, there were the wealthy and seasoned merchants of Saint-Malo. On the other hand, Parisian bankers and financiers were backed by royal support. Into this mix emerged the figure of Noël Danycan. Danycan, a skilled and ambitious Saint-Malo sailor and businessman, acquired alliances with Parisian investors. These bankers from the capital helped him secure the desired trading monopoly off the coast of Peru. However, Danycan’s ambition went even further. He pushed his Parisian contacts to obtain royal privileges to trade in China, which could allow Danycan to monopolize the Pacific trade into his private system. However, the conflict between other Saint-Malo merchants and Parisian royal authorities ultimately shattered his project. This article analyzes the initial five years of French direct trade in Peru, focusing on the trading companies owned by Noël Danycan and his inability to preserve his monopoly of the South Pacific trade. I argue that his plans to establish a commercial network across the Pacific were met with constant disputes from his French rivals, ultimately hampering his project.

Direct, Embedded, and Embodied Trade of Arsenic: 1990-2019.

International arsenic trade, physical and virtual, has resulted in considerable transfer of arsenic pollution across regions. However, no study has systematically captured, estimated, and compared physical and virtual arsenic trade and its relevant impacts. This study combines material flow analysis and embodied emission factors to estimate embedded (including direct and indirect trade) and embodied arsenic trade during 1990-2019, encompassing 18 arsenic-containing products among 244 countries. Global embedded arsenic trade increased considerably from 47 ± 7.3 to 450 ± 68 kilotonnes (kt) during this time and was dominated by indirect arsenic trade, contributing 94 and 90% to global arsenic trade in 1990 and 2019, respectively. Since the 1990s, global arsenic trade centers and the main flows have shifted from European and American markets to developing countries. The mass of arsenic involved in embodied trade increased from 87.5 ± 26 kt in 1990 to 800 ± 236 kt in 2019. Direct trade and indirect trade aggravate arsenic environmental emissions in major importing countries, like China, while embodied trade aggravates arsenic environmental emissions in major exporting countries, like Peru and Chile. The trade-related arsenic pollution transfer calls for a rational arsenic emission responsibility-sharing mechanism and corresponding policy recommendations for different trading countries.

Effects of Carcass Traits and Backfat Thickness of the Composite Breed Pigs of Jinhua and Duroc Breeds on Their Carcass Prices in Direct Trade

Effects of Carcass Traits and Backfat Thickness of the Composite Breed Pigs of Jinhua and Duroc Breeds on Their Carcass Prices in Direct Trade

Direct Trade Sourcing Strategies for Specialty Coffee

Problem definition: Leading specialty coffee roasters rely on direct trade to source premium coffee beans. We examine a roaster who sells two basic types of roasts: (1) a single-origin roast sourced from a specific locale and (2) a blend roast that uses a mix of beans from sources that vary over the course of a year. The prices of blend roasts are lower than those of single-origin roasts and appeal to a larger market. We study how characteristics of the operating and market environment affect the optimal sourcing strategy for single-origin beans. Methodology/results: We develop a two-stage stochastic program with recourse that reflects these characteristics. A roaster has the option to allocate some of the single-origin beans for sale under a blend label, known as downward substitution. We identify three distinct optimal sourcing strategies—specialized (no downward substitution), diversified (consistent downward substitution), and mixed (between these extremes)—and show that they are robust under different definitions of yield and demand. Managerial implications: We identify four main insights: (1) Two factors determine which strategy is optimal: the mean price of the inferior product (blend label) and the marginal cost of the superior product (single-origin label). (2) When compared with the newsvendor model, we find distinct structural differences across strategies. For example, whereas the effects of increasing uncertainty on optimal quantity align with the newsvendor model under a mixed strategy, the effects are distinctly different under specialized and diversified strategies (e.g., monotonic decreasing behavior for specialized, no change in quantity under diversified). (3) The weighted average price of an agricultural product is decreasing in negative yield–price correlation. We coin this as the “farmer’s curse,” which carries lessons for direct trade sourcing (e.g., advocating against paying the grower at postharvest market prices). (4) We find evidence of a virtuous feedback loop wherein the grower–roaster relationship becomes stronger over time. Our findings also point to a simple signal that policymakers may use to identify coffee growing locales where targeted interventions can improve grower welfare. Funding: B. Kazaz is thankful for summer support provided by the Whitman School of Management, Syracuse University. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2021.0586 .

Russian-Spanish Relations During the Development of North American Territories in the Second Half of the 18th century

The article is about the relations between Russia and Spain in the second half of the 18th century. The article identifies the factors that influenced the nature of the emerging interaction between the powers: it shows the ambivalence of Russian-Spanish relations, on the one hand, due to the growing fears of the Spanish authorities provoked by Russia’s advance towards California, and, on the other, to the development of mutually beneficial trade relations. We draw attention to aspects related to Russia’s discovery of the Aleutian archipelago and Alaska and the activity of Russian merchants. The reaction of the Spanish court to messages of Spanish diplomats in Russia about Russian discoveries in America is shown. The analysis of the texts of diplomatic reports (1761−1792) has shown that the Spanish ambassadors were skeptical about the success of Russian expeditions to the American continent but changed their mind in the second half of 1760s. The article also examines the trade and economic aspect in the relations between the powers, showing the intention of Spain and Russia to establish direct trade. At the same time, we note that the nature of such interaction was influenced by the general political situation, which was determined by the leading powers of that time. The article has been written using historical and philological methods and approaches and aims to show the various aspects and stages of Russian-Spanish relations during the period of colonization of the Northwest of America. The results of the study can be used in practical activities of diplomatic services within the framework of international dialogue.

Indirect channel of trade agreements in deepening global value chains

AbstractPreferential trade agreements (PTAs) between trading partners are known to have positive impact on the expanding and deepening of global value chain integration due to lower trade and investment barriers. Less is known, however, is if other PTAs of PTA partners have any impact on the value‐added trade linkages of the direct PTA partners concerned. Based on compositive indicators measuring the breadth and depth of PTAs from 2007 to 2018 and using Multiregional Input–Output Table database covering 62 countries and 35 sectors and the Content of Deep Trade Agreements database, this paper estimates the multiplicative form of the constant‐elasticity augmented gravity equation model by a Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator. This study shows that indirect impact of the deepening of trade agreements of a country's PTA partner exerts positive, significant impact on value‐added exports of a country. Both backward and forward linkages of a country measured by various decomposition of valued added exports indicate this indirect channel of value chain deepening effect even outweighs the direct impact from the deepening of PTAs between direct trading partners with significant policy implications in formulating PTA strategies.

Peer-to-peer multi-period energy market with flexible scheduling on a scalable and cost-effective blockchain

Peer-to-Peer (P2P) electricity trading is an emerging means for allowing communities to share local energy production and demand response through direct trading. It is projected to play an important role in the future energy market by increasing the incentive to own and operate distributed energy resources (DERs) and participate in demand response (DR). A common approach to implementing P2P trading is with blockchain, however, existing solutions feature limitations. Typically, concerns involve either scalability and high transaction costs or projects implementing a permissioned blockchain that does not provide the trust and decentralization desired. In addition, the majority of market designs are simplified and do not capture the distinct complexity of electricity markets. They do not consider the inter-temporal constraints of appliances and DERs that need to run for multiple periods. Complex market designs that address these issues have not been implemented in blockchain based systems due to the computational limitations of such systems. To improve these two aspects, this paper proposes a market formulation that supports products running multiple periods with flexible scheduling, modeled as a mixed integer linear programming problem that optimizes social welfare. The trading platform is then implemented as a side chain of Polkadot, a network of blockchains designed to be secure, scalable, and economically feasible to foster an ecosystem of application-specific sidechains. This design is demonstrated to improve social welfare and achieve scalability by benchmarking the number of transactions that can be included per second, based upon typical assumptions of the market size. The result is a decentralized and performant system that allows for complex market designs to be implemented in a blockchain environment. This approach simplifies the process for participants, allowing them to bid DER or DR devices, directly and easily, even when this requires constraints across periods.

Bristol Slave Trading in North America, 1684–1686: The Voyages of the Isabella and Hopewell to Pennsylvania and Maryland

Abstract: While slaves arrived in Pennsylvania aboard the ship Isabella in 1684, little detail of this venture has been described. We have discovered two English lawsuits detailing the voyage of the slave ship Hopewell to Maryland in 1685. As this ship was managed by the same group of Bristol Quakers responsible for the Isabella , we re-examined the documents pertaining to the Isabella in more detail. The two voyages together provide a better understanding of how the direct trading of slaves was illicitly practiced in the mid-Atlantic colonies by Bristol Quakers who could target specific markets and use designated agents.

How can sustainable business models distribute value more equitably in global value chains? Introducing “value chain profit sharing” as an emerging alternative to fair trade, direct trade, or solidarity trade

AbstractGlobal supply chains often distribute value inequitably among the Global North and South. This perpetuates poverty and contributes to indecent work in raw material‐producing countries, thus creating challenges to sustainable development. For decades, corporate social responsibility, social entrepreneurship, and sustainable business model innovations have aimed to distribute value more equitably across global value chains, for instance via fair trade, alternative trade, and direct trade. This article examines a novel and hitherto understudied innovation for equitable value distribution in global supply chains: “value chain profit sharing.” We draw on interview and archival data from two cases of social entrepreneurs working in the coffee sector to develop a generalized model. One of the model's key features is that the entrepreneur pays suppliers in multiple installments that reflect market conditions (as opposed to a single lump sum based on prediction). We show how this can increase value creation, appropriation, and equitable distribution. Although our research suggests that this model may be highly contingent on leaders' skills, resources, sense of place, and accountability to suppliers, we find no evidence that its applications are limited to specific countries or sectors. Our research further extends extant theory by showing how “value chain profit sharing” may relieve some of the tensions often associated with sustainable business models, including distributing value to suppliers while maintaining financial solvency; creating value while pursuing a social mission; providing benefits to suppliers without curtailing their market opportunities; responding to market conditions while maintaining commitments to suppliers; and scaling without diluting benefits. It thereby contributes to the literatures on sustainable business model innovations, equitable value distribution in global supply chains, novel application of revenue‐sharing contracts, and innovative methods of profit sharing. It furthermore provides actionable guidance for social entrepreneurs, corporate social responsibility practitioners, and supplier cooperatives aiming to achieve more equitable value distribution and sustainable supply chains.

Optimizing Peer-to-Peer Energy Transactions: Determining the Allowable Maximum Trading Power for Participants

This paper presents a comprehensive study on the impacts of peer-to-peer (P2P) energy markets on distribution systems, specifically focusing on voltage, power loss, and congestion. While P2P energy markets create opportunities for direct trading between prosumers and consumers, ensuring compliance with distribution system constraints remains a challenge. This paper proposes an iterative method and graphical interpretation in order to assess complex interactions, addressing the persistent issue of network constraints. Additionally, this paper proposes a method to determine distribution locational marginal prices (DLMPs) for real-time traditional energy markets. This ensures effective coordination among sellers, buyers, and the distribution system operator. The proposed method aims to prevent negative impacts on distribution system operation via the determination of the allowable maximum trading power (MTP), ensuring empirical validity and practical implementation via operating conditions and forecast errors, thus distinguishing it from prior studies. This paper also establishes a model for P2P energy market interactions, utilizing linear estimations for efficient DLMP updates. The contributions of this paper enhance the understanding and operation of P2P energy markets, and is supported by simulation results validating the proposed method.

The potential for cascading failures in the international trade network.

In our study, we introduce indicators that quantify the influence of each country in complex trade scenarios involving the exchange of raw materials, intermediate goods, and final products across multiple countries. We systematically employ an agent-based model to simulate the propagation of failures from one node to the entire network. This approach allows for the assessment of the impact of each country and the identification of patterns of interaction in the multi-step trade network. Unlike conventional analyses of trade networks, which depict straightforward single-step import/export transactions, our approach captures the intricate realities of processes like raw material procurement, production, and sales in numerous countries from a macroscopic perspective. The findings of our analysis of trade data spanning from 1990 to 2022 reveal several key insights. Firstly, sensitivity to changes in trade volume leading to global failures within interconnected networks has intensified over time. The potential of failure propagation across countries has increased over time, as has the interconnectedness of countries in the global trade landscape. Secondly, despite the increased sensitivity to changes in global trade volume, many countries have become less vulnerable to the influence of others within their multi-step trade networks. This trend aligns with deglobalization, which is evidenced by events such as Brexit and the surge in protectionist measures; these changes indicate a shift in the balance of influence within global trade networks. Thirdly, the results of our analysis of the relationship between load changes and global failures from a regional perspective reveal an intriguing phenomenon: despite limited direct trade connectivity, the interaction between the Latin American and Sub-Saharan African regions is considerable. This suggests the existence of hidden connections between intermediary countries, such that one region's actions can alter the load sensitivity of another, impacting them in unforeseen ways. Furthermore, intra-regional interactions are diminishing in East Asia, while Europe is experiencing a gradual increase in interactions. These trends reflect evolving regional influence, the dynamics of geographic proximity, and the results of economic integration efforts. Additionally, even though the observed period was not long enough to confirm a long-term trend, the previous trend direction was affirmed to persist despite a temporary decrease in trading and reduced sensitivity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our study highlights the complexity of global trade dynamics and the need to consider multi-step trade networks and their potential cascading effects when analyzing trade patterns and vulnerabilities.

Do China's policy measures for RMB internationalization foster currency co-movements?

This paper examines the factors driving the co-movement between the renminbi (RMB) and other currencies, with a particular focus on the impact of China's institutional arrangements on RMB co-movements. Using panel data covering 32 countries from 2005 to 2020, the study finds that, among the institutional arrangements, clearing banks and direct trading strengthen the RMB's influence on bilateral exchange rates, while currency swaps weaken it. These institutional arrangements play a role in amplifying the impact of economic linkages on RMB weights. Currency swaps can enhance the RMB's weight through trade linkages, while clearing banks and direct trading create amplifying effects through financial linkages. Overall, China's institutional arrangements contribute significantly to greater RMB co-movements through both a direct effect and an amplifying effect.

The Made in China 2025 strategy: Perceptions and reservations of China’s state capitalist economic model

The Made in China 2025 (MIC 2025) strategy was introduced in 2015 and aims to reduce Chinese reliance on foreign technologies by adopting the import-substitution policy. The United States (US) considers China’s super-ambitious industrial policy as a serious threat and is concerned about its high-tech industries, especially as Chinese technological firms are receiving generous government subsidies and tax cuts. The US, thus, entered a direct trade war with China to protect its domestic industries from unfair and inequitable competition. The US-China trade war has seriously shifted and interrupted global supply chains, thus creating a situation of uncertainty and instability for businesses that import and export US and Chinese products. The article is policy-based, and we reviewed the existing literature in depth. We addressed the industrialization pursuits of China under the MIC 2025. Furthermore, the article has analyzed the impact of the US-China trade war on global supply chains. Finally, the article has many implications; the article provides the possible policy routes for the governments of developing countries and regulators to address the reservations of developed countries regarding state-sponsored industries.

The Level of Understanding on Islamic Barter Trading among Selected Maranao Businessmen in Marawi City

Before the introduction of money, societies relied on barter and direct trade systems for exchanging goods and services which presented challenges due to the lack of a standardized medium of exchange and difficulties in valuing different goods. Hence, this study focused on the level of understanding on Islamic barter trading among selected Maranao businessmen in Marawi City, covering various aspects such as rulings in Islamic trading, determining the value of an item, and selecting the goods to barter. The researchers aimed to assess respondents' comprehension of Islamic barter trading and identify the challenges they encountered, including location, religion, and communication. The study involved 50 respondents and employed a mixed-method analysis, combining quantitative and qualitative data. While most data came from quantitative methods, qualitative responses from five participants were collected for deeper insights. A specially designed instrument was used to gather information on the obstacles faced in Islamic barter trading, which was then subjected to statistical analysis. The findings showed that the majority of respondents were female, aged 23-29, married, and college graduates. Most of them engaged in ready-to-wear (RTW) businesses and primarily traded clothes. The respondents agreed that it is important to seek guidance from Muslim scholars in order to have a clear understanding of the ethics and principles of barter trading. The respondents also suggested that barter trading should involve equal exchanges and fair treatment of the other party, and some respondents even recommended refraining from barter trading altogether to avoid receiving damaged goods from other traders. The study aimed to contribute to the enhancement of Islamic barter trading and address challenges faced by Maranao businessmen, ultimately facilitating more successful trading within the Islamic barter system.

A Holistic P2P market for active and reactive energy trading in VPPs considering both financial benefits and network constraints

Due to the rise of distributed energy resources (DERs), virtual power plants (VPPs) have gained intensive academic and industrial attention. While current centralized VPPs benefit from their large aggregated capacity in the wholesale market, they lack effective incentivizing participants for asset investment and market participation. Conversely, the peer-to-peer (P2P) market offers better profits for prosumers through direct trading; however, transactions hinge on approval from associated authorities, such as electricity retailers, who read their power meters. Such an approval procedure becomes complex, even impossible, when more retailers are involved. Hosting the P2P market in a VPP environment can conveniently resolve this issue. This paper proposes a novel holistic P2P (H-P2P) market model hosted in a VPP environment to provide the VPP participants with financial incentives and optimize the network and market operations simultaneously. The proposed new market structure and trade principle allow the proposed H-P2P market to trade active and reactive energies for both financial benefits and network constraints. Using the novel transactive voltage/VAR control (TVVC) method proposed in this paper, the reactive energy trading through the P2P market can support effective voltage regulation and incentivize the VPP participants to provide such voltage control ancillary services actively. Finally, a novel multi-stage P2P negotiation process is introduced to divide the VPP regulatory, active and reactive energy convergence stages, which allows faster P2P decision-making with improved computing efficiency than the conventional multi-period alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). The case study validates that the proposed H-P2P market can increase the financial incentives of the prosumers who install PVs and batteries by a large extent and the pure load units by a relatively smaller percentage.

Shifting geopolitical sands: COP 28 and the new BRICS+

PurposeThe new additions to Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) expand into the broader Middle East and North Africa region, adding some of the largest populations and strongest economies of the region to BRICS+. Since the BRICS summit in August 2023, significant media attention has been given to the impacts of these shifting geopolitical sands, from the potential for de-dollarization processes, and the distribution of resource reserves for influencing markets. Conference of the Parties (COP) 28 presents an opportunity for these emerging economies (BRICS+) to assert their role in addressing the global climate crisis and push for more equitable and effective solutions. However, only little has been explored on how the new BRICS+ alignment will influence climate negotiations at COP 28 and the sustainability transition more broadly. This perspective article explores what the changes to BRICS+ mean for COP 28 and the relevance of COP 28 being hosted in a BRICS+ member country.Design/methodology/approachIn crafting this perspective paper on BRICS+, the authors' methodology primarily entails a comprehensive review of existing literature, policy documents and academic analyses related to the BRICS+, as well as the examination of official statements, declarations and policy shifts from BRICS+ member countries to gauge their intentions and priorities within this expanded framework. The authors also monitor developments leading up to COP 28 to provide real-time insights into how BRICS+ dynamics shape climate negotiations.FindingsThe authors' perspective article puts forth a number of insights. First, the BRICS+ member countries are prominent players in global geopolitics. Their involvement in COP 28 could lead to climate negotiations being intertwined with broader geopolitical issues, potentially impacting the pace and direction of climate agreements. Second, COP 28 offers a critical opportunity to bridge the divide between developed and developing nations in the realm of climate action and sustainable development. The BRICS+ countries may, in this COP event, explore options beyond the traditional intergovernmental institutions, which often reflect the influence, hegemony and power dynamics of the Global North. This includes South–South collaboration, bilateral financial support, innovative financing and direct trade. Finally, agendas related to capacity building in this coming event will be a critical component of the global climate change agenda in a way that develops South–South dialogs for climate change adaptation and mitigation.Originality/valueThe authors' research sheds light on the implications of this expansion for climate negotiations, a critical global concern. It delves into uncharted territory by examining how the BRICS+ alignment may influence climate initiatives, which has not been thoroughly explored in existing literature. This comprehensive perspective fills a critical gap in the current discourse, providing policymakers and scholars with a more holistic understanding of the implications of BRICS+ for the global agenda on sustainability. Moreover, the research offers real-time insights by monitoring developments leading up to and during COP 28, allowing for timely analysis and informed recommendations. This aspect of the research provides immediate value to stakeholders engaged in climate negotiations and international relations.

Non‐tariff measures along global value chains: evidence from ASEAN countries

This paper analyzes the effects of Non‐Tariff Measures (NTMs) on exports while considering the degree of participation in the global value chains (GVCs). Standard‐like non‐tariff measures, such as Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT), have influenced trade by increasing trade costs or improving consumers' awareness. Theoretically, NTMs can have either positive or negative effects on trade flows. In this study the characteristics of the production process are considered in order to disentangle the arguments of ‘standards as barriers’ and ‘standards as catalyst’. Due to the expansion of GVCs, NTMs have accumulated along production processes. Cumulative NTMs along the GVCs affect not only the direct trade sector and its partners, but also other relevant sectors and countries indirectly through the production chains. We use panel data on product‐level ASEAN exports for 2007–2019 to estimate the effects of NTMs depending on GVC participation. The estimated results show that the impact of SPS and TBT is heterogeneous according to the degree of GVC participation. While SPS and TBT regulations have been found to promote trade, their positive effects are less significant for industries involved in forward and upstream GVC participation. This reflects the characteristics of these sectors, which require higher levels of technology and skilled labour compared to backward GVC participation and downstream sectors. As a result, ASEAN exporters heavily involved in forward and upstream GVCs face increased production costs to comply with the requirements of the standard‐like NTMs. The increased production costs limit the trade‐promoting effects of the standard‐like NTMs.