Direct Impact Of Climate Change Research Articles

Contribution of climatic variables and their interactions to reference evapotranspiration changes considering freeze-thaw cycles in the Tibetan Plateau during 1960–2022

While the direct impact of climate change on reference evapotranspiration (ET0) has been extensively studied, there is limited research on the indirect impact resulting from the interaction between climatic variables. This gap hinders a comprehensive understanding of climate change effects on ET0. Additionally, there is scarce exploration into the quantitative effect of freeze-thaw cycles on ET0 variation. In this study, we employed path analysis and dependent variable variance decomposition methods to discern the direct and interactive effects of climatic variables on ET0 in the Tibetan Plateau from 1960 to 2022. Annual ET0 exhibited variation across basins, with the coefficient of variability during the thawed period smaller than that during the non-thawed period. On an annual scale, the largest contribution to ET0 variation came from water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) at 47.7%. This contribution was amplified by its coupled interaction with temperature (T) at 47.1%, although the contribution was partially offset by the interactive effects of VPD with downward shortwave radiation and wind speed at −2.4% and − 27.6%, respectively. During different freezing-thawing periods, VPD primarily controlled ET0 variation, with its interaction with other climatic variables enhancing its impact. Furthermore, soil moisture, influenced by freeze-thaw cycles, exhibited a strong correlation with T and VPD, indicating the significant effect of freeze-thaw cycles on ET0 variation. The weak correlation between ET0 and NDVI suggested that vegetation growth had a limited regulatory effect on ET0. These findings provide valuable insights into the impact of interactions between climatic variables on hydrological processes, enhancing our understanding of the interactive roles of hydrometeorological variables.

Lower fishing effort would benefit fish stocks and fisheries profitability in the Gulf of Lion in the Mediterranean Sea

The increasing pressure on marine resources due to the high demand for fish and fishery products from an increasing population can lead to the overexploitation of fish stocks worldwide. In addition, climate change has already impacted fish populations pushing them towards states never seen before with a risk of irreversible changes. Evaluating the socioeconomic consequences of climate and anthropogenic impacts is challenging due to the large variety of interactions between social, ecological, and economic systems that make future effects difficult to predict. In this study, we develop climate-socioeconomic scenarios for the Gulf of Lion’s most important commercial fisheries using the MEFISTO bioeconomic model. Here, the biomass, catches and profit changes for the main commercial species (anchovy, sardine, hake and red mullet) and three fleets (demersal trawlers, gillnets, purse seiners) are modeled. We project the potential future storylines of fisheries under four different climate-driven and socio-political scenarios considering changes along three components: (i) climate change affecting fish stocks’ productivity through physiological processes, (ii) economic changes impacting fish price and fishing costs and (iii) technological management (fishing effort). Under alternative assumptions of productivity, market and management changes, our results indicate that fishing mortality reductions would mitigate the impacts of climate change and economic volatility over the GoL fisheries. An improvement in the overfished fisheries' management seems to be the main driver of change by 2050, over the direct impact of climate change. The market volatility (fluctuations in fish and fuel prices) will also be key for the future viability of Mediterranean fisheries.

Bibliometric analysis of global climate change and agricultural production: Trends, gaps and future directions

AbstractClimate change poses a significant threat to global food security, and a comprehensive understanding of its impact on agricultural production is needed. We analysed the Scopus data set between 1993 and 2023. China occupies the leading position in terms of climate change production, and the United States occupies the comprehensive strength position with the largest citation strength output. Notably, a substantial 29% annual publication increase between 2000 and 2015 was noted. Despite prevailing research on specific facets, a pronounced gap exists in global‐scale studies focusing on the direct impact of climate change on agricultural production and yield, with a predominant concentration in regional analyses. Collaboration in this area continues to occur within developed nations, but the rate of growth at the international level is relatively low. In addition, the frequency of co‐occurrence analysis of keywords revealed that climate change and sustainability are the focal keywords, but yield, food security, irrigation and rice production have yet to be identified. The results of this research will help in designing a policy for water resource management for irrigation planning and an adaptative food security management strategy and provide a feature research guide.

Sedimentary Ancient DNA Reveals Local Vegetation Changes Driven by Glacial Activity and Climate

Disentangling the effects of glaciers and climate on vegetation is complicated by the confounding role that climate plays in both systems. We reconstructed changes in vegetation occurring over the Holocene at Jøkelvatnet, a lake located directly downstream from the Langfjordjøkel glacier in northern Norway. We used a sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding dataset of 38 samples from a lake sediment core spanning 10,400 years using primers targeting the P6 loop of the trnL (UAA) intron. A total of 193 plant taxa were identified revealing a pattern of continually increasing richness over the time period. Vegetation surveys conducted around Jøkelvatnet show a high concordance with the taxa identified through sedaDNA metabarcoding. We identified four distinct vegetation assemblage zones with transitions at ca. 9.7, 8.4 and 4.3 ka with the first and last mirroring climatic shifts recorded by the Langfjordjøkel glacier. Soil disturbance trait values of the vegetation increased with glacial activity, suggesting that the glacier had a direct impact on plants growing in the catchment. Temperature optimum and moisture trait values correlated with both glacial activity and reconstructed climatic variables showing direct and indirect effects of climate change on the vegetation. In contrast to other catchments without an active glacier, the vegetation at Jøkelvatnet has displayed an increased sensitivity to climate change throughout the Middle and Late Holocene. Beyond the direct impact of climate change on arctic and alpine vegetation, our results suggest the ongoing disappearance of glaciers will have an additional effect on plant communities.

Contemporary climate change problems in Central Asia

According to the moderate climate change scenario, the direct impact of climate change on irrigated crops, including cotton, wheat, apples, tomatoes, and potatoes, is pro-jected to decrease the yields by 1–13% by 2050. However, the demand for food is expected to increase overall due to the population growth and poverty reduction goals. The rate of climate change in the countries varies. The highest decadal rates of climate change were recorded in Uzbekistan at 0.29°C (1950-2005) and in Kazakhstan at 0.26°C (1936-2005). The climate change rate in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were 0.08°C and 0.10°C, respectively. In these upstream countries, the area of forests and mountain ranges is relatively large, and the possible negative impact of climatic factors is relatively small. Thus, the contemporary problems in Central Asia in the context of climate change are related to a growing scarcity of water resources; uneven distribution of water resources across the countries in relation to the needs; relatively low water use efficiency (especially in agriculture); relatively high population growth rates and intensification of economic processes. If additional resource-saving measures are not taken, the negative consequences of climate change in the region may include an increased risk of water shortages, droughts, and other dangerous hydrome-teorological events that lead to instability of agricultural production and threaten food secu-rity; and particularly the shrinkage of glaciers and therewith one of the key sources of freshwater. Overall, a strategy of action plans on climate change nationally and region-wide is urgently needed, including both adaptation and mitigation measures.

From Patient Reported Outcome Measure (PROM) to Environment Related Outcome Measure (EROM): Towards "Green Breast Surgery".

Climate change is a global issue that has had significant impacts on public health and healthcare policy worldwide. The direct impact of climate change on healthcare has been associated with extreme weather events, resulting in a higher demand for disaster management resources and reduced healthcare access. Moreover, the increase of zoonotic spillover effects has increased the risk of transmission of different diseases, including COVID-19. The healthcare industry alone is responsible for 4.4% of greenhouse gas global emissions. The surgical theatre is a resource-intense healthcare activity and a major carbon emitter, thus surgical processes require rethinking. This article proposes the introduction of environmental-related outcome measures in clinical trials, which will associate highest clinical standards to a reduced impact of care on climate change. Breast cancer care may represent a model disease for the implementation of evidence-based protocols, such as Green Breast Surgery, aiming to optimize the carbon footprint of care without affecting oncological and non-oncological outcomes. Physicians and healthcare workers worldwide should be aware of the importance of addressing environmental issues in healthcare policy, implementing programs to reduce their carbon footprint, and contributing to a more sustainable future.

Direct and indirect impacts of climate change on wheat yield in the Indo-Gangetic plain in India

The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) is one of the main wheat-production regions in India and the world. With climate change, wheat yields in this region will be affected through changes in temperature and precipitation and decreased water availability for irrigation, raising major concerns for national and international food security. Here we use a regional climate model and a crop model to better understand the direct (via changes in temperature and precipitation) and indirect (via a decrease in irrigation availability) impacts of climate change on wheat yields at four sites spread across different states of the IGP: Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The results show an increase in mean temperature and precipitation as well as maximum temperature during the growing season or Rabi season (November–April). The direct impact of climate change, via changes in temperature and precipitation, leads to wheat yield losses between −1% and −8% depending on the site examined. Then, the indirect impact of climate change is examined, considering the impact of climate change on water availability leading to a decrease in irrigation. In this case, the yield losses become significant and much higher, reaching −4% to −36% depending on the site examined and the irrigation regime chosen (6, 5, 3 or 1 irrigations). This work shows that the indirect impacts of climate change may be more detrimental than the direct climatic effects for the future wheat yields in the IGP. It also emphasizes the complexity of climatic risk and the necessity of integrating indirect impacts of climate change to fully assess how it affects agriculture and choose the adequate adaptation response. • The climate model projects a significant increase in temperature over the IGP. • The direct impact of climate change leads to wheat yields losses between −1 and −8%. • The added limitation in irrigation leads to higher yields losses, from −4% to −36%.

Forecasting Rainfed Agricultural Production in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands Using Learning Machine Methods: A Case Study

With the rising demand for food products and the direct impact of climate change on food production in many parts of the world, recent years have seen growing interest in the subject of food security and the role of rainfed farming in this area. Machine learning methods can be used to predict crop yield based on a combination of remote sensing data and data collected by ground weather stations. This paper argues that forecasting drylands farming yield can be reliable for management purpose under uncertain conditions using machine learning methods and remote sensing data and determines which indicators are most important in predicting the yield of chickpea. In this study, the yield of rainfed chickpea farms in 11 top chickpea producing counties in Kermanshah province, Iran, was predicted using three machine learning methods, namely support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), and K-nearest neighbors (KNN). To improve prediction accuracy, for each county, remote sensing data were overlaid by the satellite images of rainfed farms with a suitable slope and altitude for rainfed farming. An integrated database was created by combining weather data, remote sensing data, and chickpea yield statistics. The methods were evaluated using the leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) technique and compared in terms of multiple measures. Given the sensitivity of rainfed chickpea yield to the time of data, the predictions were made in two scenarios: (1) using the averages of the data of all growing months, and (2) using the data of a combination of months. The results showed that RF provides more accurate yield predictions than other methods. The predictions of this method were 7–8% different from the statistics reported by the Statistical Center and the Ministry of Agriculture of Iran. It was found that for pre-harvest prediction of rainfed chickpea yield, using the data of the March–April period (the averages of two months) offers the best result in terms of the correlation coefficient for the relationship between the yield and the predictor indices.

Influence of climate change and breeding mode on the reproductive parameters of cattle herds in the agro-pastoral cotton production zone of the commune of Banikoara in North Benin

Heat stress, increased morbidity and mortality most often characterize the direct impact of climate change on livestock farming and modify the conditions of animal production. The present study aims to analyze the influence of climate change (CC) and breeding modes on the reproductive parameters of cattle herds in the cotton zone of North Benin over the last 32 years as well as the local perception of CC by farmers. It was based on a sample of 694 breeders in all ten districts of the commune of Banikoara in North Benin. The generalized linear model based on the Beta distribution was used to test the effect of climate change and breeding modes on the reproductive parameters of the cattle herds (apparent fertility rate, numerical productivity at, fertility rate, farrowing rate and abortion rate). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to describe the criteria that determine the local perception of climate change by livestock farmers. The study revealed a significant decrease in fertility, calving and abortion rates among cattle herds in the commune of Banikoara, regardless of the farming mode (Bariba, Peulh) on the one hand and on the other, according to climate variations observed from 1988 to 2020. The apparent fertility rates according to the breeding modes and the time gap are not significant at the 5% threshold, but only the numerical productivity at weaning varied very significantly between 1988 and 2020 (p

When climate change adaptation becomes a “looming threat” to society: Exploring views and responses to California wildfires and public safety power shutoffs

Communities worldwide will increasingly be called upon to bear the burden of the direct impact of climate change, and also the externalities associated with avoiding the worst. This begs the question: How do we protect the well-being of populations living with climate impacts without causing unintentional harm via poorly planned or managed adaptation actions? This Perspective presenting an exploratory pilot study surveyed populations affected by the historic and unprecedented widespread public safety power shutoffs (PSPS) to mitigate the risk of wildfires by Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) and Southern California Edison (SCE) in October and November 2019 that left millions without power. The results suggest that PSPS likely represents a ‘looming threat’ that is associated with reported poorer recent physical and mental health, exacerbated by self-reported trauma lingering from previous experience with wildfires, especially among the most vulnerable. This threat is apparently most acute in northern California, where people experienced greater widespread shutoffs, more recent experience with devastating wildfires, and expressed anger toward how their utility contributed and responded to recent wildfires. Despite this, people are largely supportive of PSPS as an important way to reduce the bigger risk of wildfires, even as they report suffering from this adaptation measure. These results suggest that people understand and are sympathetic regarding the need for PSPS; yet without holistic consideration of the consequences of climate adaptation, unintended health impacts may arise.

Changes in ice‐wedge activity over 25 years of climate change near Salluit, Nunavik (northern Québec, Canada)

AbstractTo assess the direct impact of climate change on ice‐wedge (IW) degradation, 16 sites in the Narsajuaq river valley (Nunavik, Canada) that were extensively studied between 1989 and 1991 were revisited in 2016, 2017 and 2018. In total, 109 pits were dug to record soil characteristics and IW shapes and depths. Changes in surface conditions were also noted using side‐by‐side comparisons of recent (2017) and older (1989–1991) land and aerial photographs. During the past 25 years, the active layer reached depths that were 1.2–3.4 times deeper than in 1991, which led to the widespread degradation of IWs in the valley. Whereas 94% of the IWs unearthed in 1991 showed multiple recent growth structures, only 13% of the 55 IWs unearthed in 2017 still had some upgrowth stages left. IW tops are now consistently deeper than the main stages of the IWs measured in 1991. In August 2017, however, about half of the IWs had ice veins connecting them to the base of the active layer, an indication that the recent cooling spell (2010 to present) in the region was enough to reactivate frost cracking and IW growth. This paper highlights how sensitive the Arctic soil system can be to short‐term climate variations.

Assessment of Potential Suitable Surface Irrigation Area in Borkena River Catchment, Awash Basin, Ethiopia

Although Ethiopia has abundant land for irrigation, only a fraction of its potential land is being utilized and the economy of the country subjected to a direct impact of climate change. So, assessment of land suitability for irrigation purpose is important to utilize the land resources efficiently and for the sustainable production of crops and food security of the ever increasing people in the country especially the study area. This study was initiated to assess the land resources which is potentially suitable for surface irrigation in Borkena watershed by using Geographic Information System (GIS). To identify the land which is suitable for irrigation purpose, the following factors such as soil type, slope, land use/cover and distance from water supply (sources) were taken into account and classified based on the FAO guideline for land evaluation in to S1, S2, S3 and N suitability classes independently. The final existing and potentially irrigable land was identified by weighting overlay these factors of suitability. The suitability analysis of the parameters indicates that 90.65% of slope, 72.03% of soil depth, 94.73% distance from a water source of the study area, 100% soil drainages and 100% of soil texture were identified in the range of highly suitable (S1) to marginal suitable (S3) for surface irrigation. But, when all the above physical suitable area determination factors were weighted together using weighted overlay in Arc GIS software by restricted other land use/cover for irrigation development without agricultural land indicates only 16.13% highly suitable (S1), 47.12% moderately suitable (S2), 31.58 marginally suitable (S3) and 5.17% non-suitable (N) area for surface irrigation development.

Impact of Climate Change on Energy Production, Distribution, and Consumption in Russia

An assessment of the overall impact of the observed and expected climatic changes on energy production, distribution, and consumption in Russia is presented. Climate model results of various complexity and evaluation data on the vulnerability of various energy production sectors to climate change are presented. It is shown that, due to the increase of air temperature, the efficiency of electricity production at thermal and nuclear power plants declines. According to the climate model results, the production of electricity at TPPs and NPPs by 2050 could be reduced by 6 billion kW h due to the temperature increase. At the same time, as a result of simulation, the expected increase in the rainfall amount and river runoff in Russia by 2050 could lead to an increase in the output of HPP by 4–6% as compared with the current level, i.e., by 8 billion kW h. For energy transmission and distribution, the climate warming will mean an increase in transmission losses, which, according to estimates, may amount to approximately 1 billion kW h by 2050. The increase of air temperature in summer will require higher energy consumption for air conditioning, which will increase by approximately 6 billion kW h by 2050. However, in total, the optimal energy consumption in Russia, corresponding to the postindustrial level, will decrease by 2050 by approximately 150 billion kW h as a result of climate- induced changes. The maximum global warming impact is focused on the heat demand sector. As a result of a decrease in the heating degree-days by 2050, the need for space heating is expected to fall by 10–15%, which will cause a fuel conservation sufficient for generating approximately 140 billion kW h of electricity. Hence, a conclusion about the positive direct impact of climate change on the Russia’s energy sector follows, which is constituted in the additional available energy resource of approximately 300 billion kW h per year.

Climate change and Chinese farmers: Perceptions and determinants of adaptive strategies

Farmers’ perceptions, beliefs, adaptive strategies, and barriers regarding climate change are critical to promoting sustainable ecosystems and societal stability. This paper is based on an extensive survey of 1 500 farmers and their households in Henan Province in China during 2013–2014. Henan is the largest agricultural province in China with over 51 million farmers. The survey results showed that approximately 57% of the respondents perceived the direct impact of climate change during the past 10 years, with 70.3% believing that climate change posed a risk to their livelihood. Not surprisingly, most farmers reported that they have adopted new measures to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. The main barriers hindering farmers’ adopting adaptation measures were lack of funds and timely information. A multinomial logit model revealed that land ownership, knowledge of crop variety and the causes of climate change, as well as the belief of climate change, were all positively related to the likelihood of employing adaptive strategies. Moreover, the percentage of households engaging in agriculture activity, and years of engaging in farming were both negatively correlated with famer's likelihood of adopting adaptation strategies. More importantly, farmers with high incomes were less likely to adopt adaptive strategies and more willing to engage in other business activities. In conclusion, it is important to communicate climate change related information and government policies in rural areas, promote farmer associations and other educational outreach efforts to assist Chinese farmers to deal with climate change.

Quantifying the streamflow response to frozen ground degradation in the source region of the Yellow River within the Budyko framework

The source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) is greatly important for water resources throughout the entire Yellow River Basin. Streamflow in the SRYR has experienced great changes over the past few decades, which is closely related to the frozen ground degradation; however, the extent of this influence is still unclear. In this study, the air freezing index (DDFa) is selected as an indicator for the degree of frozen ground degradation. A water-energy balance equation within the Budyko framework is employed to quantify the streamflow response to the direct impact of climate change, which manifests as changes in the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, as well as the impact of frozen ground degradation, which can be regarded as part of the indirect impact of climate change. The results show that the direct impact of climate change and the impact of frozen ground degradation can explain 55% and 33%, respectively, of the streamflow decrease for the entire SRYR from Period 1 (1965–1989) to Period 2 (1990–2003). In the permafrost-dominated region upstream of the Jimai hydrological station, the impact of frozen ground degradation can explain 71% of the streamflow decrease. From Period 2 (1990–2003) to Period 3 (2004–2015), the observed streamflow did not increase as much as the precipitation; this could be attributed to the combined effects of increasing potential evapotranspiration and more importantly, frozen ground degradation. Frozen ground degradation could influence streamflow by increasing the groundwater storage when the active layer thickness increases in permafrost-dominated regions. These findings will help develop a better understanding of the impact of frozen ground degradation on water resources in the Tibetan Plateau.

Climate- and successional-related changes in functional composition of European forests are strongly driven by tree mortality.

Intense droughts combined with increased temperatures are one of the major threats to forest persistence in the 21st century. Despite the direct impact of climate change on forest growth and shifts in species abundance, the effect of altered demography on changes in the composition of functional traits is not well known. We sought to (1) quantify the recent changes in functional composition of European forests; (2) identify the relative importance of climate change, mean climate and forest development for changes in functional composition; and (3) analyse the roles of tree mortality and growth underlying any functional changes in different forest types. We quantified changes in functional composition from the 1980s to the 2000s across Europe by two dimensions of functional trait variation: the first dimension was mainly related to changes in leaf mass per area and wood density (partially related to the trait differences between angiosperms and gymnosperms), and the second dimension was related to changes in maximum tree height. Our results indicate that climate change and mean climatic effects strongly interacted with forest development and it was not possible to completely disentangle their effects. Where recent climate change was not too extreme, the patterns of functional change generally followed the expected patterns under secondary succession (e.g. towards late-successional short-statured hardwoods in Mediterranean forests and taller gymnosperms in boreal forests) and latitudinal gradients (e.g. larger proportion of gymnosperm-like strategies at low water availability in forests formerly dominated by broad-leaved deciduous species). Recent climate change generally favoured the dominance of angiosperm-like related traits under increased temperature and intense droughts. Our results show functional composition changes over relatively short time scales in European forests. These changes are largely determined by tree mortality, which should be further investigated and modelled to adequately predict the impacts of climate change on forest function.

Reflections—Temperature Stress and the Direct Impact of Climate Change: A Review of an Emerging Literature

Abstract This article reviews the recent literature on the economics of exposure to temperature extremes. There is growing evidence from both micro and macro studies that in the short run, exposure...

Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects

We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale.

Multi-phase assessment and adaptation of power systems resilience to natural hazards

Extreme weather hazards, as high-impact low-probability events, have catastrophic consequences on critical infrastructures. As a direct impact of climate change, the frequency and severity of some of these events is expected to increase in the future, which highlights the necessity of evaluating their impact and investigating how can systems withstand a major disruption with limited degradation and recover rapidly. This paper first presents a multi-phase resilience assessment framework that can be used to analyze any natural threat that may have a severe single, multiple and/or continuous impact on critical infrastructures, such as electric power systems. Namely, these phases are (i) threat characterization, (ii) vulnerability assessment of the system's components, (iii) system's reaction and (iv) system's restoration. Second, multi-phase adaptation cases, i.e. making the system more robust, redundant and responsive are explained to discuss different strategies to enhance the resilience of the electricity network. To illustrate the above, this time-dependent framework is applied to assess the impact of potential future windstorms and floods on a reduced version of the Great Britain's power network. Finally, the adaptation cases are evaluated to conclude in what situations a stronger, bigger or smarter grid is preferred against the uncertain future.

The water footprint of staple crop trade under climate and policy scenarios

Trade in staple crop commodities has become increasingly important in the global food system, with ramifications for both food security and water resources sustainability. It is thus essential to understand how the water footprint (WF) of staple crop trade may change in the future. To this end, we project international staple crop trade and its WF under climate and policy scenarios for the year 2030. We use the H08 global hydrologic model to determine the impact of climatic changes to staple crop yields and evapotranspiration. Using the yield changes projected with the H08 model, we estimate the bilateral trade of staple crops using the Global Trade Analysis Project model. We combine these projections to obtain the total and blue WF of agricultural trade and global water savings (GWS) across scenarios. This approach enables us to determine the direct impact of climate change and trade liberalization—together and in isolation—on the WF of staple crop trade. Importantly, we show that trade liberalization leads to greater WF, making it a potentially important adaptation measure to a changing climate, although future work is needed to distinguish high resolution crop water use, water stress, and commodity transfers.