Dimensional Data Assimilation Research Articles

Improving Forecast of Severe Oceanic Mesoscale Convective Systems Using FY-4A Lightning Data Assimilation with WRF-FDDA

The Fengyun-4A (FY-4A) geostationary satellite carries the Lightning Mapping Imager that measures total lightning rate of convective systems from space at high spatial and temporal resolutions. In this study, the performance of FY-4A lightning data assimilation (LDA) on the forecast of non-typhoon oceanic mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is investigated by using an LDA method implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting-Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (WRF-FDDA). With the LDA scheme, three-dimensional graupel mixing ratio fields retrieved from the FY-4A lightning data and the corresponding latent heating rates are assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting model via nudging terms. Two oceanic MCS cases over the South China Sea were selected to perform the study. The subjective evaluation results demonstrate that most of the oceanic convective cells missed by the control experiments are recovered in the analysis period by assimilating FY-4A lightning data, due to the promoted updrafts by latent-heat nudging, the more accurate and faster simulations of the cold pools, and the associated gust-fronts at the observed lightning locations. The cold pools and gust-fronts generated during the analysis period helped to maintain the development of the MCSs, and reduced the morphology and displacement errors of the simulations in the short-term forecast periods. The quantitative evaluation indicates that the most effective periods of the LDA for simulation enhancement were at the analysis time and the nowcasting (0–2 h forecast) periods.

Impacts of LULC, FDDA, Topo-wind and UCM schemes on WRF-CMAQ over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

In this study, the impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) change, four–dimensional data assimilation (FDDA), Topo-wind and urban canopy module (UCM) schemes on meteorology and air quality were investigated with the latest LULC data in Weather Research and Forecasting Model-Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) by scenarios analysis. Results showed that LULC change had significant effects on meteorological conditions and air quality at urban stations, which was attributed to the increasing surface roughness and impervious surface caused by the significant growth of urban land use. Considering the fraction of impervious surfaces and thermal and radiative processes related to urban geometry, UCM improved simulation of 2-m temperature (T2) and relative humidity (RH) in comparison to LULC change at urban stations. Topo-wind scheme slowed down surface wind speed domain-widely especially at valley stations in the nighttime. Based on the Final Operational Global Analysis data, the effects of FDDA varied with stations and layers. FDDA scheme had significant impacts on surface wind speed and aloft wind speed in the vertical range of 60–3500 m obviously. Meanwhile, the simulation results of O3 in FDDA scheme was better than other schemes. Moreover, the combination of LULC change, FDDA, Topo-wind and UCM schemes showed the best simulation performance of surface wind speed, pressure, SO2 and PM2.5 among scenarios, and the distributions of days under different pollution levels of O3 and PM2.5 were much closer to observed data than other scenarios, especially for stations with severe air pollution.

Assimilation of radar radial velocity data with the WRF hybrid 4DEnVar system for the prediction of hurricane Ike (2008)

Four dimensional ensemble-variation data assimilation (4DEnVar) is the method that considers the flow dependent background error covariance (BEC) and asynchronous observations throughout the assimilation window, which avoids the maintenance of the adjoint model. The impacts of assimilation of radial velocity (Vr) data using hybrid-4DEnVar for the analyses and forecasts of hurricane Ike are investigated using Weather Research and Forecasting and Data Assimilation model (WRFDA). 4DEnVar is coupled with Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) by updating the ensemble mean by the hybrid scheme and the ensemble perturbations are updated by the ETKF. Single observation tests for typical Jet cast and tropical cyclone (TC) case are conducted before the real hurricane Ike (2008) case. It is found that the analysis increment moves downstream by the end of the assimilation window. The linear propagation represented by the 4DEnVar method is close to the full nonlinear model integration. For the real IKE case, it is found that positive and spiral temperature increments, best track and intensity forecast are found in 4DEnVar experiment, indicating a more realistic thermal structure of hurricane Ike. 3DEnVar and 3DVar-FGAT are limited due to the lack of the BEC description spatially and temporally. 3DVar experiment produces much smoother and weaker increments with cold temperature increments at the hurricane vortex center at lower levels.

Four dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) impacts on WRF performance in simulating inversion layer structure and distributions of CMAQ-simulated winter ozone concentrations in Uintah Basin

Four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) was applied in WRF-CMAQ model sensitivity tests to study the impact of observational and analysis nudging on model performance in simulating inversion layers and O3 concentration distributions within the Uintah Basin, Utah, U.S.A. in winter 2013. Observational nudging substantially improved WRF model performance in simulating surface wind fields, correcting a 10 °C warm surface temperature bias, correcting overestimation of the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and correcting underestimation of inversion strengths produced by regular WRF model physics without nudging. However, the combined effects of poor performance of WRF meteorological model physical parameterization schemes in simulating low clouds, and warm and moist biases in the temperature and moisture initialization and subsequent simulation fields, likely amplified the overestimation of warm clouds during inversion days when observational nudging was applied, impacting the resulting O3 photochemical formation in the chemistry model. To reduce the impact of a moist bias in the simulations on warm cloud formation, nudging with the analysis water mixing ratio above the planetary boundary layer (PBL) was applied. However, due to poor analysis vertical temperature profiles, applying analysis nudging also increased the errors in the modeled inversion layer vertical structure compared to observational nudging. Combining both observational and analysis nudging methods resulted in unrealistically extreme stratified stability that trapped pollutants at the lowest elevations at the center of the Uintah Basin and yielded the worst WRF performance in simulating inversion layer structure among the four sensitivity tests. The results of this study illustrate the importance of carefully considering the representativeness and quality of the observational and model analysis data sets when applying nudging techniques within stable PBLs, and the need to evaluate model results on a basin-wide scale.

Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003–2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

Stochastic spectral projection of electrochemical thermal model for lithium-ion cell state estimation

Abstract A novel approach for integrating a pseudo-two dimensional electrochemical thermal (P2D-ECT) model and data assimilation algorithm is presented for lithium-ion cell state estimation. This approach refrains from making any simplifications in the P2D-ECT model while making it amenable for online state estimation. Though deterministic, uncertainty in the initial states induces stochasticity in the P2D-ECT model. This stochasticity is resolved by spectrally projecting the stochastic P2D-ECT model on a set of orthogonal multivariate Hermite polynomials. Volume averaging in the stochastic dimensions is proposed for efficient numerical solution of the resultant model. A state estimation framework is developed using a transformation of the orthogonal basis to assimilate the measurables with this system of equations. Effectiveness of the proposed method is first demonstrated by assimilating the cell voltage and temperature data generated using a synthetic test bed. This validated method is used with the experimentally observed cell voltage and temperature data for state estimation at different operating conditions and drive cycle protocols. The results show increased prediction accuracy when the data is assimilated every 30s. High accuracy of the estimated states is exploited to infer temperature dependent behavior of the lithium-ion cell.

Toward reduced transport errors in a high resolution urban CO2 inversion system

We present a high-resolution atmospheric inversion system combining a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM) and the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), and test the impact of assimilating meteorological observation on transport accuracy. A Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA) technique continuously assimilates meteorological observations from various observing systems into the transport modeling system, and is coupled to the high resolution CO2 emission product Hestia to simulate the atmospheric mole fractions of CO2. For the Indianapolis Flux Experiment (INFLUX) project, we evaluated the impact of assimilating different meteorological observation systems on the linearized adjoint solutions and the CO2 inverse fluxes estimated using observed CO2 mole fractions from 11 out of 12 communications towers over Indianapolis for the Sep.-Nov. 2013 period. While assimilating WMO surface measurements improved the simulated wind speed and direction, their impact on the planetary boundary layer (PBL) was limited. Simulated PBL wind statistics improved significantly when assimilating upper-air observations from the commercial airline program Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) and continuous ground-based Doppler lidar wind observations. Wind direction mean absolute error (MAE) decreased from 26 to 14 degrees and the wind speed MAE decreased from 2.0 to 1.2 m s–1, while the bias remains small in all configurations (< 6 degrees and 0.2 m s–1). Wind speed MAE and ME are larger in daytime than in nighttime. PBL depth MAE is reduced by ~10%, with little bias reduction. The inverse results indicate that the spatial distribution of CO2 inverse fluxes were affected by the model performance while the overall flux estimates changed little across WRF simulations when aggregated over the entire domain. Our results show that PBL wind observations are a potent tool for increasing the precision of urban meteorological reanalyses, but that the impact on inverse flux estimates is dependent on the specific urban environment.

A Method to Assess the Wind and Solar Resource and to Quantify Interannual Variability over the United States under Current and Projected Future Climate

AbstractThe National Center for Atmospheric Research and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) collaborated to develop a method to assess the interannual variability of wind and solar power over the contiguous United States under current and projected future climate conditions, for use with NREL’s Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. The team leveraged a reanalysis-derived database to estimate the wind and solar power resources and their interannual variability under current climate conditions (1985–2005). Then, a projected future climate database for the time range of 2040–69 was derived on the basis of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by free-running atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. To compare current and future climate variability, the team developed a baseline by decomposing the current climate reanalysis database into self-organizing maps (SOMs) to determine the predominant modes of variability. The current climate patterns found were compared with those of an NARCCAP-based future climate scenario, and the CRCM–CCSM combination was chosen to describe the future climate scenario. The future climate scenarios’ data were projected onto the Climate Four Dimensional Data Assimilation reanalysis SOMs. The projected future climate database was then created by resampling the reanalysis on the basis of the frequency of occurrence of the future SOM patterns, adjusting for the differences in magnitude of the wind speed or solar irradiance between the current and future climate conditions. Comparison of the changes in the frequency of occurrence of the SOM modes between current and future climate conditions indicates that the annual mean wind speed and solar irradiance could be expected to change by up to 10% (increasing or decreasing regionally).

Investigating the impact on modeled ozone concentrations using meteorological fields from WRF with an updated four–dimensional data assimilation approach

The four–dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) technique in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model has recently undergone an important update from the original version. Previous evaluation results have demonstrated that the updated FDDA approach in WRF provides more accurate wind fields aloft than the original approach, particularly during the nocturnal period when low level jets are a common feature in the Eastern United States. Due to the importance of WRF/FDDA meteorological fields in retrospective air quality applications, a modeling study with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was undertaken to ascertain if the improved wind flow fields translate into better performance for ozone. To undertake this objective, separate CMAQ model simulations were performed with meteorological inputs generated by WRF using the original and the updated FDDA approaches for a three month summer period. The evaluation effort focused on observed and modeled surface ozone from a mid–morning hour (10 local daylight time (LDT)). Comparisons of modeled results against concentrations aloft from an instrumented tall tower and from available morning vertical profile measurements were also examined. Surface concentrations near 10 LDT are desirable for evaluating the transport process since they are often representative of ozone that has been transported aloft overnight and has undergone downward entrainment in response to convective mixing the following morning. Statistical results from surface observed and modeled concentration pairs indicated modeled ozone from the CMAQ simulation using the updated FDDA meteorology displayed smaller biases and lower absolute errors at 88% and 80% of monitoring sites, respectively, in the Eastern United States. The CMAQ results with the updated FDDA generally exhibited smaller biases and lower absolute errors at monitoring sites across the northern states than in the southeastern states. The results provide evidence that the more accurate wind flows generated with the updated WRF/FDDA approach improved CMAQ model performance based on the statistical results from 10 LDT ozone concentrations.

Calibration and evaluation of a flood forecasting system: Utility of numerical weather prediction model, data assimilation and satellite-based rainfall

Summary A fully-distributed, multi-physics, multi-scale hydrologic and hydraulic modeling system, WRF-Hydro, is used to assess the potential for skillful flood forecasting based on precipitation inputs derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the EUMETSAT Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimates (MPEs). Similar to past studies it was found that WRF model precipitation forecast errors related to model initial conditions are reduced when the three dimensional atmospheric data assimilation (3DVAR) scheme in the WRF model simulations is used. A comparative evaluation of the impact of MPE versus WRF precipitation estimates, both with and without data assimilation, in driving WRF-Hydro simulated streamflow is then made. The ten rainfall–runoff events that occurred in the Black Sea Region were used for testing and evaluation. With the availability of streamflow data across rainfall–runoff events, the calibration is only performed on the Bartin sub-basin using two events and the calibrated parameters are then transferred to other neighboring three ungauged sub-basins in the study area. The rest of the events from all sub-basins are then used to evaluate the performance of the WRF-Hydro system with the calibrated parameters. Following model calibration, the WRF-Hydro system was capable of skillfully reproducing observed flood hydrographs in terms of the volume of the runoff produced and the overall shape of the hydrograph. Streamflow simulation skill was significantly improved for those WRF model simulations where storm precipitation was accurately depicted with respect to timing, location and amount. Accurate streamflow simulations were more evident in WRF model simulations where the 3DVAR scheme was used compared to when it was not used. Because of substantial dry bias feature of MPE, as compared with surface rain gauges, streamflow derived using this precipitation product is in general very poor. Overall, root mean squared errors for runoff were reduced by 22.2% when hydrological model calibration is performed with WRF precipitation. Errors were reduced by 36.9% (above uncalibrated model performance) when both WRF model data assimilation and hydrological model calibration was utilized. Our results also indicated that when assimilated precipitation and model calibration is performed jointly, the calibrated parameters at the gauged sites could be transferred to ungauged neighboring basins where WRF-Hydro reduced mean root mean squared error from 8.31 m3/s to 6.51 m3/s.

Contribution of the North Atlantic subtropical high to regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating southeastern United States summer precipitation

This study assesses the skill of advanced regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating southeastern United States (SE US) summer precipitation and explores the physical mechanisms responsible for the simulation skill at a process level. Analysis of the RCM output for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program indicates that the RCM simulations of summer precipitation show the largest biases and a remarkable spread over the SE US compared to other regions in the contiguous US. The causes of such a spread are investigated by performing simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a next-generation RCM developed by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results show that the simulated biases in SE US summer precipitation are due mainly to the misrepresentation of the modeled North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) western ridge. In the WRF simulations, the NASH western ridge shifts 7° northwestward when compared to that in the reanalysis ensemble, leading to a dry bias in the simulated summer precipitation according to the relationship between the NASH western ridge and summer precipitation over the southeast. Experiments utilizing the four dimensional data assimilation technique further suggest that the improved representation of the circulation patterns (i.e., wind fields) associated with the NASH western ridge substantially reduces the bias in the simulated SE US summer precipitation. Our analysis of circulation dynamics indicates that the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations is significantly influenced by the simulated planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes over the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, a decrease (increase) in the simulated PBL height tends to stabilize (destabilize) the lower troposphere over the Gulf of Mexico, and thus inhibits (favors) the onset and/or development of convection. Such changes in tropical convection induce a tropical–extratropical teleconnection pattern, which modulates the circulation along the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations and contributes to the modeled precipitation biases over the SE US. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that the NASH western ridge is an important factor responsible for the RCM skill in simulating SE US summer precipitation. Furthermore, the improvements in the PBL parameterizations for the Gulf of Mexico might help advance RCM skill in representing the NASH western ridge circulation and summer precipitation over the SE US.

Observation thinning in data assimilation computations

We propose to use an observation-thinning method for the efficient numerical solution of large-scale incremental four- dimensional (4D-Var) data assimilation problems. This decomposition is based on exploiting an adaptive hierarchy of the observations. Starting with a low-cardinality set and the solution of its corresponding optimization problem, observations are successively added based on a posteriori error estimates. The particular structure of the sequence of associated linear systems allows the use of a variant of the conjugate gradient algorithm which effectively exploits the fact that the number of observations is smaller than the size of the vector state in the 4D-Var model. The new algorithm is tested on a one-dimensional-wave equation and on the Lorenz96 system, the latter one being of special interest because of its similarity with numerical weather prediction systems.

Airborne wind energy: Optimal locations and variability

This paper explores the global wind power potential of Airborne Wind Energy (AWE), a relatively new branch of renewable energy that utilizes airborne tethered devices to generate electricity from the wind. Unlike wind turbines mounted on towers, AWE systems can be automatically raised and lowered to the height of maximum wind speeds, thereby providing a more temporally consistent power production. Most locations on Earth have significant power production potential above the height of conventional turbines. The ideal candidates for AWE farms, however, are where temporally consistent and high wind speeds are found at the lowest possible altitudes, to minimize the drag induced by the tether. A criterion is introduced to identify and characterize regions with wind speeds in excess of 10 m s−1 occurring at least 15% of the time in each month for heights below 3000 m AGL. These features exhibit a jet-like profile with remarkable temporal constancy in many locations and are termed here “wind speed maxima” to distinguish them from diurnally varying low-level jets. Their properties are investigated using global, 40 km-resolution, hourly reanalyses from the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Climate Four Dimensional Data Assimilation, performed over the 1985–2005 period. These wind speed maxima are more ubiquitous than previously thought and can have extraordinarily high wind power densities (up to 15,000 W m−2). Three notable examples are the U.S. Great Plains, the oceanic regions near the descending branches of the Hadley cells, and the Somali jet offshore of the horn of Africa. If an intermediate number of AWE systems per unit of land area could be deployed at all locations exhibiting wind speed maxima, without accounting for possible climatic feedbacks or landuse conflicts, then several terawatts of electric power (1 TW = 1012 W) could be generated, more than enough to provide electricity to all of humanity.

Accuracy and stability of the continuous-time 3DVAR filter for the Navier–Stokes equation

The 3DVAR filter is prototypical of methods used to combine observed data with a dynamical system, online, in order to improve estimation of the state of the system. Such methods are used for high dimensional data assimilation problems, such as those arising in weather forecasting. To gain understanding of filters in applications such as these, it is hence of interest to study their behaviour when applied to infinite dimensional dynamical systems. This motivates the study of the problem of accuracy and stability of 3DVAR filters for the Navier–Stokes equation. We work in the limit of high frequency observations and derive continuous time filters. This leads to a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) for state estimation, in the form of a damped-driven Navier–Stokes equation, with mean-reversion to the signal, and spatially-correlated time-white noise. Both forward and pullback accuracy and stability results are proved for this SPDE, showing in particular that when enough low Fourier modes are observed, and when the model uncertainty is larger than the data uncertainty in these modes (variance inflation), then the filter can lock on to a small neighbourhood of the true signal, recovering from order one initial error, if the error in the observed modes is small. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the theory.

Regional adjustment of emission strengths via four dimensional data assimilation

The Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation was performed to evaluate source emission strengths over the United States. The USEPA Models-3 system (CMAQ/MM5/SMOKE) and ridge regression are used as the forward and inverse models, respectively. The continental US is divided into six regions, and data assimilation is performed for each region in July 2001 and January 2002. In addition, two separate scaling factors are calculated for weekdays and weekends. Results show that base emissions for CO and SO2 sources are relatively accurate. Base emissions for PEC source are overestimated 100%, but those for POA source are underestimated up to 70% when compared with the adjusted emissions. Emissions for NH3, NOx, and PMFINE sources are relatively accurate in July 2001, but those in January 2002 are around 100% higher than the adjusted emissions. Base VOC emissions in July 2001 are similar to the adjusted emissions but those in January 2002 are underestimated up to 70% when compared with the adjusted emissions. Though the emission adjustment itself improves the overall air quality model performance, a better improvement is expected with the modification of speciation profiles and temporal allocations in the Models-3 system, as well.

Role of Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation on Track and Intensity of Severe Cyclonic Storms

To examine the role of four dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) on prediction of two Severe Cyclonic Storm (Aila (May 23–26, 2009) andJal (Nov 4–8, 2010)), four numerical experiments are performed using WRF-ARW model with three nested domains having two-way interaction and physical parameterization schemes as CPS-BMJ, MP-WSM6, and PBL-YSU. In each experiment, the model integration is started prior to the formation of depression and continued till the observed landfall. For the experiment without FDDA, NCEP-FNL data alone is used as initial and boundary conditions and for the experiments with FDDA, additional observations are used. In all the experiments, FDDA is considered only in the outer domain upto 24 hrs of integration and then the inner domain is introduced. The results are examined in terms of surface circulation, vorticity, CSLP, MSW, and surface track error. FDDA-produced surface circulation and vorticity showed well-organized structure. For the case of Aila, the surface track (maximum track error: 281 km) and landfall position (88°E/21.73°N) in FDDA experiment are predicted better than experiment without FDDA (track error: 445 km and landfall position 87.13°E/20.37°N) whereas the landfall time experiment without FDDA is closer to observations (between 09 and 12 UTC of May 25) than that of experiment with FDDA(06 UTC of May 25). When CSLP and MSW are examined, the overall intensity is well predicted with FDDA experiment except near to the landfall time. For Jal cyclone, FDDA played significant role to improve the landfall position (80.16°E/13.67°N) with a time lead of ~10 hrs but other parameters remain more or less unchanged.

Implementation of a Silver Iodide Cloud-Seeding Parameterization in WRF. Part II: 3D Simulations of Actual Seeding Events and Sensitivity Tests

AbstractFour cloud-seeding cases over southern Idaho during the 2010/11 winter season have been simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using the coupled silver iodide (AgI) cloud-seeding scheme that was described in Part I. The seeding effects of both ground-based and airborne seeding as well as the impacts of model physics, seeding rates, location, timing, and cloud properties on seeding effects have been investigated. The results were compared with those from Part I and showed the following: 1) For the four cases tested in this study, control simulations driven by the Real-Time Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (RTFDDA) WRF forecast data generated more realistic atmospheric conditions and precipitation patterns than those driven by the North America Regional Reanalysis data. Sensitivity experiments therefore used the RTFDDA data. 2) Glaciogenic cloud seeding increased orographic precipitation by less than 1% over the simulation domain, including the Snake River basin, and by up to 5% over the target areas. The local values of the relative precipitation enhancement by seeding were ~20%. Most of the enhancement came from vapor depletion. 3) The seeding effect was inversely related to the natural precipitation efficiency but was positively related to seeding rates. 4) Airborne seeding is generally more efficient than ground-based seeding in terms of targeting, but its efficiency depends on local meteorological conditions. 5) The normalized seeding effects ranged from 0.4 to 1.6 under various conditions for a certain seeding event.

アンサンブルカルマンフィルタを用いた水同位体比データ同化に向けた理想化実験

This study presents idealized tests of a newly-developed data assimilation system for assimilating high-frequency vapor isotope observations from satellites, using an ensemble Kalman filter with the isotope-incorporated general circulation model. An LETKF-based four dimensional data assimilation system was newly developed for the first time to obtain dynamically and physically consistent analysis of both water isotope and meteorological variables. Moreover, we also aim at assessing the isotope observation impact on the dynamical fields (wind, temperature, humidity, pressure). Several numerical experiments have been performed with various synthetic observations using a model simulation as the "nature run". The control experiment assimilates conventional rawinsonde-like observations, and the test experiments with additional isotope observations showed general improvement in both isotopic fields and dynamical fields. The positive impact on the dynamical fields was surprisingly larger when the number of conventional observations was decreased. These results are promising, so that the satellite isotopic data could be very useful to analyze the atmospheric states, particularly for the past (before 19th century) when isotopic measurement data were a major source of observations.

Improving the horizontal transport in the lower troposphere with four dimensional data assimilation

The physical processes involved in air quality modeling are governed by dynamically-generated meteorological model fields. This research focuses on reducing the uncertainty in the horizontal transport in the lower troposphere by improving the four dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) strategy in retrospective meteorological modeling. In particular, characterization of winds in the nocturnal low-level jet and overlying residual layer is crucial to accurately model regional-scale ozone transport in the key airsheds of the US. Since model errors in wind speed and direction lead to spatial displacements of pollution plumes, observations not routinely used in previous retrospective modeling are introduced through FDDA in an effort to help reduce this transport uncertainty. Prior to the main modeling sensitivity, an observational uncertainty analysis was pursued to identify uncertainties in the wind speed and direction in the lower 1-km of the troposphere that are inherent in the observational data sets used in FDDA. Comparisons of observations among various platforms (radar wind profilers, radiosonde soundings and weather radar profiles) taken in close proximity revealed that an uncertainty of approximately 1.8 m s �1 for wind speed and about 20� for wind direction was intrinsic to the measurements. In the modeling sensitivities, some minimal improvement of modeled winds within the convective planetary boundary layer (PBL) was found when surface analysis nudging of wind was eliminated. Improvements in the nocturnal jet and residual layer winds at night are demonstrated as a reaction to the use of new observations in the data assimilation in layers above the stable PBL. There is also evidence that the assimilated observations above the convective PBL during the day led to improvements of winds within the PBL, which may relieve the need of nudging within the PBL, including surface analysis nudging. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Impact of four dimensional assimilation of satellite data on long-range simulations over the Indian region during monsoon 2006

A number of experiments were conducted to study the impact of updating model basic fields by satellite data (Quick Scatterometer (QSCAT) surface winds and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature and humidity profiles) on long-range simulation during the Indian summer monsoon 2006. The Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model version5 (MM5) and its four dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) technique was used for the numerical simulations. The spatial distribution and temporal variation in model simulated basic meteorological parameters and rainfall were verified against the observed fields from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) analysis and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), respectively. The overall analysis of the results from QSCAT surface wind assimilation as compared to control simulation (CNT; without the satellite data assimilation) suggest that a better representation of a single level wind field during model integration fail to make significant improvement in the model simulation both in the basic meteorological parameters and rainfall. The assimilation of temperature and humidity profiles from the AIRS during model integration significantly improved the rainfall prediction during monsoon period. It is found that the improvement in rainfall prediction is attributed to improved thermodynamics structure due to AIRS profile assimilation and the degree of improvement is more in temperature prediction as compared to humidity prediction. It is also found that the prediction over the regions, such as south west part of India and foothills of Himalaya, where a complex orography exists, is not significantly benefited from satellite data assimilation which highlights the need of improvement in the model in addition to a better representation of atmospheric state.