Diffusion Of Electric Vehicles Research Articles

Assessing the diffusion of photovoltaic technology and electric vehicles using system dynamics modeling

Amidst the sweeping changes in the global electricity and automotive sectors, we observe a rapid surge in the proliferation of distributed generation (DG) and electric vehicles (EVs), primarily driven by the widespread deployment of photovoltaic systems. The widespread embrace of EVs necessitates a dual approach of financial incentives and infrastructure development to enhance the appeal of these vehicles. The findings presented in this paper hold significant importance for policymakers, underscoring the urgency of transitioning toward sustainable decentralized power systems and promoting EV adoption. While this transition offers promising opportunities, it also presents formidable challenges. Successful integration of DG and EVs demands careful attention to policy and regulatory frameworks. Some experts advocate for simultaneous adjustments in design, addressing mobility limitations and offering incentives for DG and EVs. Given the multitude of uncertainties, the authors suggest employing a system dynamics model to analyze the impact of photovoltaic technology and EV diffusion. The paper concludes that, within the Colombian context, the potential exists, under specific conditions, to increase the adoption of solar panels and EVs in households. This, in turn, contributes to a reduction in CO2 emissions and a transformative shift in the composition of the automotive fleet toward EVs.

Estimating the market share of electric motorcycles: A system dynamics approach with the policy mix and sustainable life cycle costs

Introducing electric vehicles is critical to maintaining air quality and reducing carbon emissions. The Indonesian government has issued several regulations to stimulate the diffusion of electric vehicles. This research attempts to forecast the electric vehicle market share, especially electric motorcycles, by involving the policy mix and sustainable life cycle costs. We propose a system dynamics approach that takes into account a policy mix including 0% down payment without credit interest subsidies, tax abolition, expansion of charging station network, and sustainable life cycle costs, i.e., total cost of ownership, social, and environment. The system dynamics model has four modules: the electric motorcycle cost, the conventional motorcycle cost, the economy module, and the consumer market. The simulation results show that the electric motorcycle market share will increase positively in 2021–2030, reaching 5.7% in 2030. Based on the scenario simulation results, providing more charging stations and vehicle tax abolition can significantly boost the market share of electric motorcycles in Indonesia. The study provides valuable insights for policymakers in formulating more appropriate policy instruments to promote electric vehicle diffusion in Indonesia.

Should India Adopt the Developed Countries Model of Electric Vehicles Diffusion?

Should India Adopt the Developed Countries Model of Electric Vehicles Diffusion?

Assessing the Nationwide Benefits of Vehicle–Grid Integration during Distribution Network Planning and Power System Dispatching

The diffusion of electric vehicles is fundamental for transport sector decarbonization. However, a major concern about electric vehicles is their compatibility with power grids. Adopting a whole-power-system approach, this work presents a comprehensive analysis of the impacts and benefits of electric vehicles’ diffusion on a national power system, i.e., Italy. Demand and flexibility profiles are estimated with a detailed review of the literature on the topic, allowing us to put forward reliable charging profiles and the resulting flexibility, compatible with the Italian regulatory framework. Distribution network planning and power system dispatching are handled with dedicated models, while the uncertainty associated with EV charging behavior is managed with a Monte Carlo approach. The novelty of this study is considering a nationwide context, considering both transmission and distribution systems, and proposing a set of policies suitable for enabling flexibility provision. The results show that the power and energy demand created by the spread of EVs will have localized impacts on power and voltage limits of the distribution network, while the consequences for transmission grids and dispatching will be negligible. In 2030 scenarios, smart charging reduces grid elements’ violations (−23%, −100%), dispatching costs (−43%), and RES curtailment (−50%).

Comparing Mini and full-size electric vehicles in China: Evidence from user heterogeneity and satisfaction asymmetry

Improving user satisfaction with electric vehicles (EVs) is crucial for their widespread diffusion and the development of sustainable transportation. Although numerous studies have investigated the impact of EV service factors on satisfaction, the nonlinear and asymmetric effects have been largely neglected. This study aims to fill this gap by comparing the factor differences in user perceptions, satisfaction asymmetries, and improvement priorities among heterogeneous adopters within two EV segments: Mini EVs and full-size EVs. Two common methods, the regression with dummy variables (RDV) and the Importance Grid (IG), are utilized to examine satisfaction asymmetry and determine which one is more appropriate for describing the relationship between service factors and overall satisfaction. Empirical evidence from EV segments in China indicates that the RDV method is more suitable than the IG method for characterizing factor attribute and asymmetry. Female, multi-vehicle, and daily users report higher levels of satisfaction and importance for service factors compared to male, single-vehicle, and weekly users. Based on the RDV method, the results emphasize the importance of improving charging satisfaction to enhance the overall satisfaction of Mini EV adopters, particularly for those who have multiple vehicles and frequent travel demands. For males and daily users of full-size EVs, it is critical to enhance vehicle performance and technology. This study not only expands the limited application of satisfaction asymmetry to the transportation field but also provides policy implications for Mini EV diffusion.

An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for the Diffusion Analysis of Electric Vehicles With Two-Stage Purchase Choice Modeling

Abstract Diffusion research of innovative technologies is crucial for new product positioning and strategic planning in product design. As a versatile system simulation method, agent-based modeling (ABM) has been used in many previous studies on the diffusion analysis of electric vehicles (EVs). In these simulations, modeling consumers' purchase decisions is a significant step. Previous studies often adopt simple rule-based decision criteria in this step, while an accurate purchase decision model can contribute to a more reasonable diffusion analysis of EVs. To fill this gap, this brief presents an agent-based modeling approach for the diffusion analysis of electric vehicles with two-stage choice modeling. The core idea is to separate consumers' decision-making process for purchasing cars into two stages. Consumers first form a small choice set from the whole auto market. Then, they make the final choice from the choice set built in the first stage. In addition, the word-of-mouth (WOM) effect and consumers' social networks are also considered in the ABM, which can further improve the accuracy of the diffusion analysis. A case study using data collected from Shanghai, China, is presented to demonstrate the proposed approach. Our approach outperforms other ablation models as well as traditional statistical models in the prediction accuracy of EV's market share. The influence of factors such as government policy and technological improvement on the diffusion of EVs is also discussed. These insights can assist automakers in improving their product design and enhancing their market competitiveness.

Diffusion of electric vehicles in Beijing considering indirect network effects

Various policies on electric vehicles (EVs) have been implemented in Beijing to promote EV diffusion, but previous research has rarely considered the indirect network effects between EVs and EV charging infrastructures (EVCIs), and has not explored the impact of EVCI-related incentives on EV diffusion. This study aims to enrich the literature by incorporating EVCI development and indirect network effects in EV diffusion. A system dynamic model is proposed to systematically analyse the interactions among consumer, EV manufacturer and EVCI operator and simulate EV diffusion and ECVI investment in Beijing. Multiple scenarios are adopted to investigate the joint effects of the policy mix on EV diffusion. The results indicate that the oil-to-electricity subsidy promoted EVs and EVCIs to a greater extent than the license plate control policy. The EVCI maintenance policy outperformed EVCI construction and production subsidies on EV diffusion. Synergistic effects exist when the oil-to-electricity subsidy is mixed with EVCI-related incentives. This study provides implications for policymakers to promote EV diffusion with innovative and efficient policy instruments.

A theoretical stakeholder model of automotive industry and policy implications for sustainable transport after Dieselgate

As an issue of ethical decision making, Dieselgate reveals that secondary stakeholders might be highly influential in electric vehicle (EV) diffusion. Thus, in this research, first a theoretical stakeholder model of automotive industry is developed, and previous EV diffusion studies are reviewed from the perspectives of different stakeholders. Then, to understand how some automobile manufacturers such as Volkswagen Group companies might have engaged in an unethical practice, a retrospective analysis of the EV diffusion into German passenger car market is conducted as an aftermath by using a simulation-optimization based integrated decision model. The results obtained from the analysis indicate that poor design of EV policies, and the failure or inability of secondary stakeholders in incorporating into the EV diffusion process and fulfilling their auditing mission created an appropriate environment for automobile manufacturers to engage in fraud. The present research contributes to the literature by highlighting the importance of contextual factors in ethical decision making regarding EV diffusion, and the necessity of secondary stakeholders for building a sustainable transport system from a transdisciplinary standpoint which is not an aspect of previous related studies.

Optimal capacity planning for the electrification of personal transport: The interplay between flexible charging and energy system infrastructure

This study analyses optimal capacity planning of the energy system in the context of large-scale diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs), and explores the potential benefits of flexible EV charging. Here, the open-source model GRIMSEL, which is characterized by high granular representation of energy consumers and low carbon technologies such as PV and batteries including various types of urban settings and buildings, is extended to model different types of driving behaviour and charging strategies. Importantly, flexible EV charging is tested with four temporal frameworks, namely immediate charging versus smart charging linked to a 24h, 60h, and 120h temporal window. Findings show that EV penetration strongly influences the level of optimal installed capacities for the energy system, with battery storage being more sensitive than PV. Second, EV charging flexibility enables greater PV, and significantly less battery storage deployment. Finally, the interplay between EV charging flexibility and grid reinforcement varies greatly depending on the type of urban setting and over time. Thus, the results in this study show notable implications for capacity planning that should be carefully considered by utilities and policymakers aiming to promote personal transport electrification.

Spatial Accessibility of Public Electric Vehicle Charging Services in China

Decarbonizing the transport sector using electric vehicles (EVs) is a vital pathway for China to achieve the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. Despite the unprecedented growth of EV diffusion in China, little information is available for the spatial accessibility of public electric vehicle charging services (EVCSs). This study developed an applicable accessibility measurement framework to examine the city-level accessibility of EVCSs in China using the Gaussian two-step floating catchment area (G2SFCA) method. G2SFCA takes the EV charging stations with charging piles as supply and the EV ownership data as demand. The results indicate that (1) the eastern region of China has the highest density of EV charging stations (69.1%), followed by the central region, while the western region has the lowest density; (2) the spatial accessibility of EVCSs has a different pattern, where the central region has the highest accessibility, followed by the eastern and western regions; (3) the spatial mismatch between EVCSs and EV diffusion in the eastern region is larger than that of the other two regions, which may be attributed to the suboptimal layout of EV charging stations and the inconsistent pace between EV penetration and EV charging station construction; and (4) there is a significant spatial inequity in the accessibility of EVCSs across both all three regions and the entirety of China, with the western region exhibiting the highest inequity, followed by the central and eastern regions. Based on these findings, policy implications are drawn for different regions in China, which may aid policymakers in crafting strategic policies and subsidy programs to foster the advancement of EVCSs.

How policies and actor strategies affect electric vehicle diffusion and wider sustainability transitions.

Implementing electromobility is a central component in the de-carbonization of personal mobility. In recent years, the absolute number of electric vehicles (EVs) and their market share has increased sharply in many countries. This paper focuses on Norway, a pioneer market for EVs that other countries can learn from. The analysis highlights how a combination of local and national policies over a 30-y period, which targeted both industry development and vehicle demand, were important drivers of this development. It also highlights the importance of advocacy groups and strong networks in promoting EVs, as well as changes in user preferences. The paper demonstrates how the EV diffusion has been driven by alignments of multiple processes across different levels, involving interactions between multiple actors and social groups with different interests and views about desirable futures as described by the multi-level perspective (MLP). Building on the MLP, the study of EV diffusion in Norway illustrates how niches are often sustained through demonstrations, experimentation, strategic alliances, and actors securing favorable political and economic conditions. Further, it shows how local or national niches may depend on international regime actors, such as the car manufacturing industry and policies developed abroad. The paper also explores how the introduction of EVs has opened for wider effects, including innovation within production-consumption systems beyond mobility. Based on this analysis, we argue for a nuanced perspective on the relationship between incremental, regime-internal innovation, and wider transformative changes, where the merits of societal learning and experience with battery electricity for transportation are highlighted.

Green premium modeling based on total cost ownership analysis: From the Chinese Electric Vehicle sales forecasting perspective

In the field of energy economics, the concept of “green premium” refers to the cost difference between zero-emission or emission-reducing technologies and emission-emitting technologies. This cost difference plays a crucial role in the adoption and commercialization of renewable energy technologies, which is essential for addressing climate change. However, the green premium, as an abstract concept, is often used qualitatively, and research on quantifying the green premium is very limited. This has significant adverse effects on both the formulation of business strategies for companies and the planning of government policies. The Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) method is a widely used cost analysis approach in businesses and organizations. It can quantitatively assess and understand the overall costs associated with specific products, assets, or services, thereby assisting decision-makers in making informed choices and managing resources. Therefore, this study introduces, for the first time, a TCO-based green premium modeling model to address the challenge of quantifying the green premium. Considering that China’s Electric Vehicles (EVs) industry has successfully overcome the green premium barrier and entered the commercialization phase, it is an appropriate domain for studying the green premium. To further demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of the modeling, this paper enhances the classic Bass model for sales forecasting of electric vehicles. It innovatively incorporates the influence of the green premium in the generalized Bass model. Additionally, the study uses primary data from industry research to construct a multi-factor green premium model for EVs based on TCO analysis. It also develops a generalized Bass diffusion model that considers the green premium and selects time-series data on EV diffusion in the Chinese market from 2010 to 2021. A genetic algorithm is employed to fit the model parameters, and different scenarios are considered to forecast EV market penetration over the next decade. Experimental results validate that incorporating the green premium in the generalized Bass model leads to better forecasting performance compared to methods that do not consider the premium which proved these related green premium modeling approaches exhibit good accuracy and scalability.

Enhancing electric vehicle market diffusion modeling: A German case study on environmental policy integration

In order to reduce national and global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, many countries worldwide have committed themselves to a more sustainable development of their transport sector. Promoting the use of electrical vehicles (EVs) rather than combustion engine cars is one political strategy to achieve a reduction in GHG emissions. To implement targeted and effective promotion measures governments can refer to market diffusion models for EVs. However, in our study we identify that in existing models the consideration of environmental measures is underrepresented. Hence, this paper addresses this gap in current market diffusion models for EVs by particular focusing on environmental effects as additional influencing factors of the market diffusion. Results are drawn for the German car market with a market diffusion simulation until 2050 applying the market diffusion model ALADIN considering the introduction of distinct CO2 tax trajectories. The results are analyzed based on scenarios, where (i) no CO2 tax, (ii) the current governmental plan for a CO2 tax, and (iii) a considerable high CO2 tax is applied. Additional insights when incrementally increasing the CO2 tax are provided. The scenario analysis shows that the market diffusion is highly dependent on the evolution of external factors. A CO2 tax considerably higher than the current governmental plan by 2030 (such as 150€/t, based on its monetary value by 2020) is required to have a meaningful impact on the market diffusion of EVs. Moreover, applying a considerable high CO2 tax leads to a slower growth of BEV and PHEV from 2040 onwards that is compensated by a growth in FCEV vehicles.

Welfare analysis of the subsidies in the Chinese electric vehicle industry*

We employ a structural model and counterfactual analysis to identify the impact of subsidies on the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) sales and examine their welfare effects. Our findings suggest that subsidies are effective in promoting the diffusion of domestic EVs, but may adversely affect technological advancement. When the subsidies on domestic EVs are reduced, the welfare on domestic EV consumers and producers decreases. However, the reduction in government spending on EV subsidies outweighs this private welfare loss. Thus, the overall welfare increases. Subsidies cannot be justified from the perspective of reducing externalities because they increase rather than decrease pollution.

Impact of the dual-credit policy on electric vehicle diffusion considering information transmission

Impact of the dual-credit policy on electric vehicle diffusion considering information transmission

Exploring incentives to promote electric vehicles diffusion under subsidy abolition: An evolutionary analysis on multiplex consumer social networks

Exploring incentives to promote electric vehicles diffusion under subsidy abolition: An evolutionary analysis on multiplex consumer social networks

Are electric vehicles economically viable in sub-Saharan Africa? The total cost of ownership of internal combustion engine and electric vehicles in Tanzania

The prevalence of internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) fleets globally has resulted in various environmental issues, such as the emissions of greenhouse gases, reliance on imported petroleum products, significant degradation of air quality, and adverse health impacts on people. To address these challenges, the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is viewed as a sustainable solution. This study analyzed the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of EVs in sub-Saharan Africa to determine if they are viable options for consumers from Tanzania. Contrary to previous studies on the competitive position of EVs that focused on Europe, Asia, and other regions with high EV diffusion, and are more advanced in terms of EV manufacturing capacity and promoting policies, this study focused on Tanzania, a country with low EV diffusion and no EV manufacturing capacity. We compared the economics of electric cars and electric two-wheelers (e2Ws) and their ICE counterparts. The findings show that the TCO per km of electric cars is higher than that of their ICE car counterparts, while the TCO of e2W was less than that of their petroleum counterparts. Importing taxes charged to all vehicles imported into the country significantly hike the upfront cost of EVs. For electric cars, particularly battery electric vehicles, to reach TCO parity with ICE car counterparts, the current import taxes have to be reduced by 40% or more, which is equivalent to removing all import duty or value-added taxes. In this regard, electric cars are still not economically viable for Tanzanian automotive consumers, unless economic incentives are introduced. With EVs being in the early stage in the country, it is recommended to start by promoting e2Ws, which are economically viable for many consumers in the Tanzanian context.

Consumers’ Adoption of Electric Vehicles for Sustainability: Exploring the Role of Personality Traits

This study investigates the influence of the Big Five personality traits which include extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, and openness in molding the adoption intention of consumers regarding electric vehicles (EVs) in India. This study also looks at Behavioral Economics as an explanatory theory on the diffusion of electric vehicles in India. The study comprised two stages. In the first stage, 150 users and non-users of electric vehicles were surveyed. Results pointed to a significant effect of all Big Five personality traits on adoption intention, with the exception of the trait of neuroticism. There was no significant difference in the adoption intention based on the differences in personality traits between men and women. In the second stage, the study used an expert-opinion based survey that was conceptualized based on the Diffusion of Innovation theory combined with the idea of memetics in new product diffusion. The results from the first stage of the research were bolstered by the fact that the second stage indicated that product attributes influencing diffusion would have a negative influence on adoption intentions of persons with high neuroticism. The study provides useful insights into consumer behavior based on personality for marketers of electric vehicles and policymakers interested in bringing about sustainable consumption practices.

Slow adoption of EVs under a weak policy regime: Future scenarios of EVs development and diffusion in Iran

Transportation sector is responsible for a considerable share of total energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Widespread electric vehicles (EVs) adoption is instrumental in achieving sustainability. This paper aims to elaborate the future scenarios of EVs development and diffusion in Iran by 2040. By adjusting the conventional intuitive logics school, to more efficiently engage public and private stakeholders and to enhace policy informing of the secenario planning results, we identified nine driving forces that shape the future of EVs. Our findings indicate that government policies and the maturity of EV technology development are the two axis of the scenario matrix and the most critical uncertainties. We outline four possible future scenarios for EVs development and diffusion. “EVs persistently struggle under the rule of non-EVs” is the probable scenario, while “EVs rule the streets” is the preferable scenario. This paper also discusses the neglected influence of oil-rich developing countries' context and efficiency of policies on the probable and preferable future scenarios of EVs in Iran. Our proposed scenarios shed light on the uncertainties of EVs development and diffusion, which policy-makers and firms in Iran and other developing countries need to consider in their future policies and strategies. Implications of this research can be helpful if transitioning from a fossil-based transportation system to a sustainable one is on the agenda of oil-rich countries beyond the prevalent political rhetorics toward EVs.

Effects of mixed policies on the cooperative and noncooperative strategies of auto manufacturers and charging infrastructure operators considering consumer preferences

ABSTRACT The dual-credit policy for auto manufacturers and the subsidy policy for charging infrastructure operators have become important policies to guide and promote the development of the automotive industry. However, few studies consider the impact of mixed policies on the market strategies of auto manufacturers and charging infrastructure operators considering consumer green preferences. To fill the gap, this article establishes optimization models to analyze and compare the effects of mixed policies on the decision-making of auto manufacturers and charging infrastructure operators under the cooperative and noncooperative modes considering consumer preference. The results reveal four main insights: (1) Two types of policies all have direct positive effects on the market diffusion of electric vehicles. Under the noncooperative mode, the dual-credit policy has no spillover effect. Under cooperative mode, two types of policies all have spillover effects. The dual-credit policy and charging infrastructure subsidy policy have positive superposition effects on the optimal number of charging piles, and the optimal demands for electric vehicles. (2) When the credit price is less than a certain threshold, there is a substitutive effect between the charging infrastructure subsidy policy and the dual-credit policy on promoting the market diffusion of electric vehicles. (3) There is a substitutive effect between high-level consumers’ green preference and policies on promoting the market diffusion of electric vehicles. (4) Under the cooperative mode, the direct and spillover effects of policies are more than that are under the noncooperative mode. These insights demonstrate the effectiveness and limitations of policies and the importance of providing complementary policies for consumers. The government should encourage market cooperation between auto manufacturers and charging infrastructure operators, maintain a stable price level for credits, and introduce incentive policies for green consumption.