Different Levels Of Probability Research Articles

Influence of cutterhead opening ratio on soil arching effect and face stability during tunnelling through non-uniform soils

Tunnelling has increasingly become an essential tool in the exploration of underground space. A typical construction problem is the face instability during tunnelling, posing a great threat to associated infrastructures. Tunnel face instability often occurs with the soil arching collapse. This study investigates the combined effect of cutterhead opening ratio and soil non-uniformity on soil arching effect and face stability, via conducting random finite-element analysis coupled with Monte–Carlo simulations. The results underscore that the face stability is strongly associated with the evolution of stress arch. The obtained stability factors in the uniform soils can serve as a reference for the design of support pressure in practical tunnelling engineering. In addition, non-uniform soils exhibit a lower stability factor than uniform soils, which implies that the latter likely yields an underestimated probability of face failure. The tunnel face is found to have a probability of failure more than 50% if the spatial non-uniformity of soil is ignored. In the end, a practical framework is established to determine factor of safety (FOS) corresponding to different levels of probability of face failure considering various opening ratios in non-uniform soils. The required FOS is 1.70 to limit the probability of face instability no more than 0.1%. Our findings can facilitate the prediction of probability of instability in the conventionally deterministic design of face pressure.

A Minimum Bayes Factor Based Threshold for Activation Likelihood Estimation

Activation likelihood estimation (ALE) is among the most used algorithms to perform neuroimaging meta-analysis. Since its first implementation, several thresholding procedures had been proposed, all referred to the frequentist framework, returning a rejection criterion for the null hypothesis according to the critical p-value selected. However, this is not informative in terms of probabilities of the validity of the hypotheses. Here, we describe an innovative thresholding procedure based on the concept of minimum Bayes factor (mBF). The use of the Bayesian framework allows to consider different levels of probability, each of these being equally significant. In order to simplify the translation between the common ALE practice and the proposed approach, we analised six task-fMRI/VBM datasets and determined the mBF values equivalent to the currently recommended frequentist thresholds based on Family Wise Error (FWE). Sensitivity and robustness toward spurious findings were also analyzed. Results showed that the cutoff log10(mBF) = 5 is equivalent to the FWE threshold, often referred as voxel-level threshold, while the cutoff log10(mBF) = 2 is equivalent to the cluster-level FWE (c-FWE) threshold. However, only in the latter case voxels spatially far from the blobs of effect in the c-FWE ALE map survived. Therefore, when using the Bayesian thresholding the cutoff log10(mBF) = 5 should be preferred. However, being in the Bayesian framework, lower values are all equally significant, while suggesting weaker level of force for that hypothesis. Hence, results obtained through less conservative thresholds can be legitimately discussed without losing statistical rigor. The proposed technique adds therefore a powerful tool to the human-brain-mapping field.

Probabilidade de Chuvas para o Município de Rio Branco na Amazônia Ocidental Brasileira

Abstract The need to predict the occurrence of rainfall events is essential for planning urban and rural activities. Thus, the objective of this work was to estimate the probable values of rainfall at different levels of probability for the city of Rio Branco, Acre, from the total monthly rainfall records, computed from the historical series from 1970 to 2021. The method of maximum-likelihood was used for estimate the parameters of the Gamma distribution. In the evaluation of the historical rainfall series, it was observed that from june to august is considered the period with less rainfall, while from november to march it is considered the rainy period in the study region. The estimated values of rainfall at different levels of probability for the city of Rio Branco, Acre, allowed verifying that during the period from 1970 to 2021, the estimates comprised in the range of 50% of probability were similar to the monthly average values of the rainfall recorded in the municipality. Therefore, the rainfall values estimated in the present study are tools to support decision-making, especially with regard to planning and undertaking urban and rural activities in the city of Rio Branco.

Profitability Analysis and Input Use Efficiency of Maize Cultivation in Selected Areas of Bangladesh

Maize farmers in Bangladesh are unaware of the benefits of maize cultivation due to a lack of information and concept generation. The objectives of this study were to estimate the cost and return of maize cultivation; assess the input use efficiency of maize cultivation for marginal, small, and medium maize production to address the problems; and suggest policy recommendations. The study was conducted in six villages in the Chuadanga district in Bangladesh. Data were collected by using an interview schedule from the purposively selected 80 respondents during 1–30 June 2018. After analyzing the data, the total cost of production was Tk. 124,495, Tk. 134,335, and Tk. 140,579 for marginal, small, and medium maize production, respectively. Per hectare gross return was Tk. 213,997, Tk. 204,972, and Tk. 197,163, and per hectare gross margin was Tk. 120,478, Tk. 104,748, and Tk. 92,516. Net return was calculated by deducting the gross cost from the gross return, and these were Tk. 89,502, Tk. 70,637, and Tk. 56,584. The benefit–cost ratio was 1.72, 1.53, and 1.40 for marginal, small, and medium maize production, respectively. From Cobb–Douglas production function analysis, it was observed that the coefficients of land preparation cost, irrigation cost, urea, and MoP cost were significant at different levels of probability for marginal, small, and medium maize production, and the coefficients of human labor cost, seed and pesticide used was not significant while the coefficients of TSP was negative and significant. This study also identified some of the problems associated with maize production. The findings revealed that the high price of inputs was the most acute problem, followed by a lack of technical knowledge and shortage of human labor at the critical stage, and declining soil fertility was the last obstacle that stood in the way of maize production in the study area.

Quality Effects of Investment Projects and Their Effect on Current House Prices: Application of Hedonic Pricing Approach

By virtue of their nature, all sorts of investment projects pose environmental disamenities like disfiguration of the natural scene, congestion, noise and pollution of different types. The study is framed to examine environmental impacts of investment projects (Hansom Glass Factory) and their effects on houses transaction values in Adama town (Picock area). Estimation of such negative impacts on current house values, which is reflected as a proxy estimation of distance from the project, was measured using a Hedonic Pricing Approach. Data on current values of residential houses in Adama town (Picock) were taken considering residences residing up to 2300 meters away from the factory for the year 2015. Data were generated for 170 houses at random that reside to the West and South-West directions of Hansom Glass Factory. A Hedonic Price Function was employed for analyzing the data using STATA(11). The study came up with that many of the hypothesized variables significantly affected house transaction prices at different levels of probability (P<0.001 and P<0.05). The result revealed that residential houses that reside bordering the factory were valued less significantly than their equivalents built away from the factory. Positioning investment projects (industrial parks) explicitly at periphery of towns can avoid coincidence of investment externalities with societal, environmental and economic welfare. To minimize externalities investment projects, emerging cities and towns should develop inclusive master plans forecasts that explicitly identifies future land use for future development agendas. In addition, there should be multidimensional environmental and social impact assessment carried out be external experts before implementation of such projects. Keywords: Hedonic pricing, Industrial parks, House values, Externality DOI: 10.7176/JESD/12-9-03 Publication date: May 31 st 2021

Body physique and nutritional status of Naga wrestlers: A case study of the Chakhesang tribe of Nagaland, India

The present study was conducted among the Chakhesang wrestlers and the controlled group of Phek district, Nagaland. This study aims to describe the variation in body physique and nutritional status of the traditional Naga-style wrestlers and the controlled group. Altogether, 52 each prominent wrestlers and non-wrestlers aged between 18 and 34 years were included in the present study. Heath-Carter method of somatotyping was employed to determine body physique. Nutritional status was determined using BMI classification for the Asian population given by WHO. Significant variations at different levels of probability were observed in all the anthropometric measurements included in the present study between the wrestlers and the controlled group. Significant variations were also found in BMI (p

Exploring the Niche of Rickettsia montanensis (Rickettsiales: Rickettsiaceae) Infection of the American Dog Tick (Acari: Ixodidae), Using Multiple Species Distribution Model Approaches.

The American dog tick, Dermacentor variabilis (Say) (Acari: Ixodidae), is a vector for several human disease-causing pathogens such as tularemia, Rocky Mountain spotted fever, and the understudied spotted fever group rickettsiae (SFGR) infection caused by Rickettsia montanensis. It is important for public health planning and intervention to understand the distribution of this tick and pathogen encounter risk. Risk is often described in terms of vector distribution, but greatest risk may be concentrated where more vectors are positive for a given pathogen. When assessing species distributions, the choice of modeling framework and spatial layers used to make predictions are important. We first updated the modeled distribution of D. variabilis and R. montanensis using maximum entropy (MaxEnt), refining bioclimatic data inputs, and including soil variables. We then compared geospatial predictions from five species distribution modeling frameworks. In contrast to previous work, we additionally assessed whether the R. montanensis positive D. variabilis distribution is nested within a larger overall D. variabilis distribution, representing a fitness cost hypothesis. We found that 1) adding soil layers improved the accuracy of the MaxEnt model; 2) the predicted ‘infected niche’ was smaller than the overall predicted niche across all models; and 3) each model predicted different sizes of suitable niche, at different levels of probability. Importantly, the models were not directly comparable in output style, which could create confusion in interpretation when developing planning tools. The random forest (RF) model had the best measured validity and fit, suggesting it may be most appropriate to these data.

How Old Is the Hebrew Bible? A Linguistic, Textual, and Historical Study

How Old Is the Hebrew Bible? A Linguistic, Textual, and Historical Study

Now for sure or later with a risk? Modeling risky intertemporal choice as accumulated preference.

Research on risky and intertemporal decision-making often focuses on descriptive models of choice. This class of models sometimes lack a psychological process account of how different cognitive processes give rise to choice behavior. Here, we attempt to decompose these processes using sequential accumulator modeling (i.e., the linear ballistic accumulator model). Participants were presented with pairs of gambles that either involve different levels of probability or delay (Experiment 1) or a combination of these dimensions (both probability and delay; Experiment 2). Response times were recorded as a measure of preferential strength. We then combined choice data and response times, and utilized variants of the linear ballistic accumulator to explore different assumptions about how preferences are formed. Specifically, we show that a model that allows for the subjective evaluation of a fixed now/certain option to change as a function of the delayed/risky option with which it is paired provides the best account of the combined choice and response time (RT) data. The work highlights the advantages of using cognitive process models in risky and intertemporal choice, and points toward a common framework for understanding how people evaluate time and probability.

PROBABLE RAINFALL OF DIVINÓPOLIS CITY, MINAS GERAIS STATE, BRAZIL

The aim of this paper was to analyze the behavior of non-parametric statistical distributions on the prediction of probable monthly and total annual rainfall as well as to determine the monthly and annual probable rainfall with different levels of probability for Divinópolis, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. The analysis consisted in adjusting the theoretical probability distribution to a data series of 66 years of monthly and annual rainfall. The data were obtained from the Hidroweb service, controlled by the National Water Agency (ANA, in Portuguese). The frequency distributions of Gumbel for Maximus, Fréchet and Gamma were adjusted to the observed series, where the adherence of these models to the data were tested by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Chi-Squared test, both with 5% of probability. The model that best represented, in most cases, the frequency distributions of the series of total monthly precipitation was Gumbel for Maximus, while the Fréchet model had the worst result, not fitting to the data of the historical series for both tests performed in the study. The probable monthly maximum precipitation for Divinópolis is 527 mm, associated with a probability of 5% and for January, while the lowest one is 0.0042 mm, with probability of 95% in July.

ГІДРОГЕОЛОГІЧНА ДІЯ ДРЕНАЖУ ТА ДРЕНАЖНИХ СИСТЕМ ЗОНИ ПОЛІССЯ У ЗМІННИХ КЛІМАТИЧНИХ УМОВАХ

We have analyzed various methods and models for determining and calculating drainage module. The drainage module is an important indicator of the hydrogeological effect of drainage and soil drainage. For the calculation of the drainage calculation module, an empirical, analytical, water-balance method is used, or it is accepted on the recommendations without sufficient economic and environmental justification. This does not meet the modern requirements for the creation and operation of such objects. Traditionally, the designs and parameters of agricultural drainage are determined by the drainage module. It provides the necessary conditions for the removal of excess moisture of the active soil layer in the spring (as the main calculation) and corresponds to a certain level of the calculated security of the formation of the runoff hydrograph. According to the generalized results of the research, in the calculation of drainage parameters, the values of drainage modules were taken within: for mineral soils – 0.4… 0.6 l/sꞏha, for peat soils 0.2… 0.6 l/sꞏha. These recommended values are not correct because then the defined drainage parameters take into account only the technological conditions of its operation. But this does not take into account the conditions of formation of economic and environmental effect within the system, and they are not economically and environmentally optimal for the calculation of the drainage system and its elements. We have performed research and evaluation of the hydrogeological effect of the drainage and drainage systems. The results of these researches showed the variability of values of drainage modules in time and space. We have also identified many influencing factors and confirmed their difference with the calculated value. A new evaluation of the effectiveness of drainage systems and the calculation of drainage modules are proposed. This evaluation includes the yield criterion for variable natural (climatic) and agricultural conditions. New optimal values of drainage modules are proposed. These values are also presented for critical conditions (maximum daily rainfall of different levels of probability).

Statistical approach to mediastinal staging in NSCLC with M.E.S.S.i.a. software.

The exclusion of pathological involvement of mediastinal lymph nodes in patients affected by NSCLC plays a central role in assessing their prognosis and operability. Ceron et al. developed a software - called M.E.S.S.i.a (Mediastinal Evaluation with Statistical Support; instan approach) - that allows the calculation of the residual probability of lymph node involvement after a certain number of tests has been done, by integrating every test result with the pre-test prevalence. M.E.S.S.i.a. bridges a gap of current American College of Chest Physicians (ACCP) guidelines, providing probability values of mediastinal metastasis for a correct clinical decision. We conducted a preliminary retrospective study in a series of 108 patients affected by non small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Pathological staging was compared to the probability of nodal involvement calculated by M.E.S.S.i.a. software. Forty-two out of 108 subjects (39%) had a calculated post-test probability <8%; none of these had proven N2/N3 metastasis at surgical staging (negative predictive value, NPV: 100%). In 12/41 cases M.E.S.S.i.a. was able to avoid invasive procedures. The remaining 66 (61%) patients did not reach the surgical threshold; among these, 11 displayed N2 positivity at pathological staging. Receiving operator curve (ROC) analysis produced an area under curve (AUC) value of 0.773 (p<0.001). These preliminary data show high accuracy of M.E.S.S.i.a. software in excluding N2/N3 lymph node involvement in NSCLC. We have therefore promoted a prospective multicenter study in order to to get a validation of the calculator at different levels of probability of lymph node involvement. The recruitable subjects are potentially operable NSCLC patients; the gold standard for detection of mediastinal disease is the surgical lymph node dissection.

Conference lecture: Electrophysiological diagnosis of inflammatory demyelinating neuropathies

Electrophysiology plays a crucial role in the characterization and diagnosis of peripheral neuropathies. It provides insight in the type and mechanism of peripheral neuropathy by giving information on the spatial pattern, the fibre type involved, pathology (axonal, demyelinating), and the severity and time course. Inflammatory demyelinating neuropathies constitute a significant proportion of the acquired peripheral neuropathies. They include Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS), chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy (CIDP), multifocal motor neuropathy (MMN), multifocal demyelinating neuropathy with persistent conduction block (Lewis-Sumner syndrome), and paraproteinemic neuropathies. A proper diagnosis as early as possible is very important because timely immune treatment can largely reduce morbidity and disability. The diagnosis is based on a constellation of clinical and laboratory features, including electrophysiological studies, spinal fluid examination, and in selected cases serological studies and peripheral nerve biopsy. Electrophysiological studies are key in the early detection and characterization of inflammatory demyelinating neuropathies and in differentiating these from primary axonal neuropathies. In CIDP, electrophysiological criteria for demyelination are designed to exclude abnormalities that can be explained by axonal degeneration (Eur J Neurol 2010). Therefore, lesser degrees of demyelination cannot be defined with certainty. Optimised electrophysiological criteria are capable, however, to support the diagnosis with different levels of probability (possible, probable, definite) in the very large majority of cases. In GBS, much effort has gone into developing criteria which can distinguish axonal and demyelinating subtypes. The discovery of reversible conduction failure (RCF) has led to the concept of nodopathy/paranodopathy, where conduction slowing and conduction block are due to the immune attack mainly at the nodal axolemma level. There is no actual demyelinisation as defined pathologically and if the immune attack continues, conduction failure may not reverse and axonal degeneration will ensue. Recent electrophysiological studies support this pathophysiological mechanism and show that the dichotomous distinction between axonal and demyelinating in GBS is not tenable (Muscle nerve, 2018).

Psychopathy-related traits and decision-making under risk and ambiguity: An exploratory study

Studies on the association between psychopathy and decision-making in laboratory tasks have revealed mixed results. These might be due to an insufficient consideration of the different aspects related to both psychopathy and decision-making. Here we measured different facets of psychopathy in a non-clinical sample using the triarchic psychopathy measure. Decision-making was assessed using a task that measured risk taking in both gain and loss domains under different levels of probability and ambiguity. Boldness was positively associated with risk taking in a gain context; Disinhibition was positively associated with risk taking in a loss context, especially under a high loss probability level. These results provide a differentiated picture of the relation between psychopathy-related traits and decision-making, which might be useful for the interpretation of results of previous studies and the design of future studies.

Economics of Quail Production in Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria

This study assesses the economics of quail production in Ilorin, Kwara state. Structured questionnaires were used to elicit information from 56 farmers that were selected with the use of a snow-ball sampling technique. Major tools of analysis for the study included descriptive statistic, gross margin analysis, Stochastic Production Frontier Model and 4 points Likert-type. The results of the findings revealed that both male and female are actively involved in the production i.e. 54.7% and 45.3% respectively with about 83% of the respondents in their active age range of 31-50 years and 66% have tertiary education. Also, results from the gross margin analysis show that an average farmer incurred a sum of ₦212,850 on variable costs with feed carrying the highest percentage (73%) and had an average net profit of ₦172,830. Feed, stock size, experience and farmer’s educational level are statistically significant to the production efficiency at different levels of probability as shown by the stochastic frontier result and farmers have a mean technical efficiency of 60.53%. The research therefore recommended that efforts should be made to reduce production cost through reduction in feed cost via establishment of more feed mills which are to be monitored by the Standard Organization of Nigeria (SON) to maintain standard.

Urban critical infrastructure interdependencies in emergency management

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to map the cascade effects of emergencies on critical infrastructure in a fast-growing city of a developing country. The paper specifically seeks to refocus the attention of decision makers and emergency managers towards a more effective way of reducing risk and costs associated with contingencies.Design/methodology/approachThe study was based on a 2D representation of the three initiating events of fire, flood and automobile crashes. Detailed analysis was undertaken of the effects on the critical infrastructure, based on the probability of occurrence, frequency, spatial extent and degree of damage for the emergencies studied. Subsequently, a cascade matrix was generated to analyse the level of interaction or interdependencies between the participating critical infrastructures in the study area. A model of the cascade effects under a typical emergency was also generated using a software model of network trace functions.FindingsThe results show that while different levels of probability of occurrence, frequency and extent of damage was observed on the evaluated critical infrastructure under different emergency events, damage to the electricity distribution components of the critical infrastructure recorded the highest cascade effect for all emergency events.Originality/valueThis paper underlines the need to pay greater attention to providing protection to critical infrastructure in the rapidly growing cities, especially in developing countries. Findings from this study in Abeokuta, Nigeria, underscore the needs to expand the prevailing critical infrastructure protection beyond the current power and oil sectors in the national development plan. They also highlight the urgency for greater research attention to critical infrastructure inventories. More importantly, the results stress the need for concerted efforts towards proactive emergency management procedures, rather than maintaining the established “fire brigade, window dressing” approach to emergency management, at all levels of administration.

ERP Correlates of Verbal and Numerical Probabilities in Risky Choices: A Two-Stage Probability Processing View.

Two kinds of probability expressions, verbal and numerical, have been used to characterize the uncertainty that people face. However, the question of whether verbal and numerical probabilities are cognitively processed in a similar manner remains unresolved. From a levels-of-processing perspective, verbal and numerical probabilities may be processed differently during early sensory processing but similarly in later semantic-associated operations. This event-related potential (ERP) study investigated the neural processing of verbal and numerical probabilities in risky choices. The results showed that verbal probability and numerical probability elicited different N1 amplitudes but that verbal and numerical probabilities elicited similar N2 and P3 waveforms in response to different levels of probability (high to low). These results were consistent with a levels-of-processing framework and suggest some internal consistency between the cognitive processing of verbal and numerical probabilities in risky choices. Our findings shed light on possible mechanism underlying probability expression and may provide the neural evidence to support the translation of verbal to numerical probabilities (or vice versa).

Digital soil mapping of a red clay subsoil covered by loess

A red clay subsoil is commonly found in the soils of the Driftless Area of Wisconsin, USA. The red clay is buried by a layer of loess and occurs on uplands underlain by dolostone. It is assumed to have derived from the impurities of the weathered dolostone. The red clay has implications for groundwater recharge and lateral flow of water through the landscape as well as the fixation of excess phosphorus from animal manure and inorganic fertilizers. Here we have produced digital soil maps at different levels of probability of the red clay presence, the depth to the red clay, and its thickness. Five hundred and sixty-one soil observations were made in a 7000ha study area and were used to investigate the relationship of the red clay to landscape characteristics and short range soil variability. Soil observations and environmental data were used to create digital soil maps using regression models and kriging. Compared to the described soil series for the study area it was found that the red clay is less red, about 10cm thinner and contains 15% less clay. At 60% probability, the model predicts 2600ha with red clay compared to 3300ha from the Soil Survey Geographic database (SSURGO), 2000ha with a 30 to 55cm loess cover (vs. 1600ha from SSURGO) and 1700ha with greater 15cm red clay thickness (vs. 3300ha from SSURGO). It is concluded that SSURGO overestimates the total area with red clay and the thickness of the clay. This study also showed how a clay subsoil can be mapped at different levels of probability.

1. Electrophysiology in the diagnosis of inflammatory demyelinating neuropathies

Inflammatory demyelinating neuropathies constitute a significant proportion of the acquired peripheral neuropathies. They include Guillain–Barré syndrome (GBS), chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy (CIDP), multifocal motor neuropathy (MMN), multifocal demyelinating neuropathy with persistent conduction block (Lewis–Sumner syndrome), and paraproteinemic neuropathies. Inflammatory demyelinating neuropathies are receiving increasing attention because they are treatable. A proper diagnosis as early as possible is very important because timely immune treatment can largely reduce morbidity and disability. The diagnosis is based on a constellation of clinical and laboratory features, the latter including electrodiagnostic (nerve conduction) studies, spinal fluid examination, and in selected cases serological studies and peripheral nerve biopsy. Electrodiagnostic studies play a key role in the early detection and characterization of inflammatory demyelinating neuropathies. Making the diagnosis of inflammatory demyelinating neuropathy, in particular when the disease course is chronic, is often difficult. Diagnostic criteria are very important but given the lack of a definitive diagnostic marker and the limitations of laboratory studies, it appears impossible to reach a definitive diagnosis in all patients. By definition, electrophysiological criteria for primary demyelination are designed to exclude abnormalities that can be explained by axonal degeneration. Therefore, lesser degrees of demyelination can not be defined with complete certainty electrophysiologically. Optimised electrophysiological criteria are capable, however, to support the diagnosis with different levels of probability (possible, probable, definite) in the very large majority of cases.

Affective and Cognitive Factors Influencing Sensitivity to Probabilistic Information

In study 1 different groups of female students were randomly assigned to one of four probabilistic information formats. Five different levels of probability of a genetic disease in an unborn child were presented to participants (within-subject factor). After the presentation of the probability level, participants were requested to indicate the acceptable level of pain they would tolerate to avoid the disease (in their unborn child), their subjective evaluation of the disease risk, and their subjective evaluation of being worried by this risk. The results of study 1 confirmed the hypothesis that an experience-based probability format decreases the subjective sense of worry about the disease, thus, presumably, weakening the tendency to overrate the probability of rare events. Study 2 showed that for the emotionally laden stimuli, the experience-based probability format resulted in higher sensitivity to probability variations than other formats of probabilistic information. These advantages of the experience-based probability format are interpreted in terms of two systems of information processing: the rational deliberative versus the affective experiential and the principle of stimulus-response compatibility.