Differences In Crime Rates Research Articles

Dark Web Drug Markets and Cartel Crime

Abstract Recent evidence suggests that legal marijuana markets in several U.S. states have decreased violence in Mexican-U.S. border regions. As legal markets for production and distribution displace drug cartel distribution, the violence associated with cartel trafficking and distribution decreases. Prior analysis has not considered an important emerging innovation for drug distribution: online anonymous marketplaces. The increasing volume of drug trade that has occurred on this “Dark Web” could result in reduced drug cartel violence as production and distribution use this substitute network and turn away from the cartel distribution networks. This paper investigates the relationship between border violence and the volume of drug trade that occurs on the Dark Web using a difference in differences model. We examine differences in crime rates at the U.S.-Mexico border and away from the border during the emergence of the Dark Web. Data on Dark Web transactions, users, and markets allows us to measure changes in Dark Web activity and the subsequent impact on crime. We find evidence that the rise in Dark Web marketplaces results in crime reductions at the border of the U.S., relative to non-border counties.

A Behavioural Theory of Discrimination in Policing

Abstract A large economic literature studies whether racial disparities in policing are explained by animus or by beliefs about group crime rates. But what if these beliefs are incorrect? We analyse a model where officers form beliefs using crime statistics, but do not properly account for the fact that they will detect more crime in more heavily policed communities. This creates a feedback loop where officers over-police groups that they (incorrectly) believe exhibit high crime rates. This inferential mistake can exacerbate discrimination even among officers with no animus and who sincerely believe that disparities are driven by real differences in crime rates.

Racial invariance in rural and urban contexts: comparing the structural sources of Black, White, and Latinx homicide in rural and urban counties, 2000 and 2010

Structural disadvantage has long been empirically linked to violent crime across different race/ethnic groups. More recently conceptualized as “racial invariance,” observed racial differences in crime rates are hypothesized to be the result of disparities in community-level structural conditions. However, most investigations into this hypothesis have focused on urban settings, with limited attention to rural contexts. The current study seeks to fill this gap by comparing county-level structural predictors of homicide victimization for Black, White, and Latinx populations in both urban and rural communities. Consistent with the racial invariance hypothesis, findings reveal that disadvantage strongly predicts homicide across race/ethnicity in both rural and urban counties. Closer inspection of results, however, exposes noteworthy differences in the effects in rural and urban settings.

Racial Disparities in Police Use of Deadly Force Against Unarmed Individuals Persist After Appropriately Benchmarking Shooting Data on Violent Crime Rates

Cesario et al. argue that benchmarking the relative counts of killings by police on relative crime rates, rather than relative population sizes, generates a measure of racial disparity in the use of lethal force that is unbiased by differential crime rates. Their publication, however, lacked any formal derivation showing that their benchmarking methodology has the statistical properties required to establish such a claim. We use the causal model of lethal force by police conditional on relative crime rates implicit in their analyses and prove that their benchmarking methodology does not, in general, remove the bias introduced by crime rate differences. Instead, it creates strong statistical biases that mask true racial disparities, especially in the killing of unarmed noncriminals by police. Reanalysis of their data using formally derived criminality-correcting benchmarks shows that there is strong and statistically reliable evidence of anti-Black racial disparities in the killing of unarmed Americans by police in 2015–2016.

Public Preferences and Reality: Crime Rates among 70 Immigrant Groups in the Netherlands

We estimated crime rates among 70 origin-based immigrant groups in the Netherlands for the years 2005-2018. Results indicated that crime rates have overall been falling for each group in the period of study, and in the country as a whole, with about a 50% decline since 2005. Immigrant groups varied widely in crime rates, with East Asian countries being lower and Muslim countries, as well as Dutch (ex-)colonial possessions in the Caribbean, being higher than the natives. We found that national IQ and Muslim percentage of population of the origin countries predicted relative differences in crime rates, r’s = .64 and .45, respectively, in line with previous research both in the Netherlands and in other European countries. Furthermore, we carried out a survey of 200 persons living in the Netherlands to measure their preferences for immigrants for each origin country in terms of getting more or fewer persons from each country. Following Carl (2016), we computed a mean opposition metric for each country. This correlated strongly with actual crime rates we found, r’s = .46 and .57, for population weighted and unweighted results, respectively. The main outliers in the regression were the Dutch (ex-)colonial possessions, and if these are excluded, the correlations increase to .68 and .66, respectively. Regressions with plausible confounders (Muslim percentage, geographical fixed effects) showed that crime rates continued to be a useful predictor of opposition to specific countries. The results were interpreted as being in line with a rational voter preference for less crime-prone immigrants.

Is There Evidence of Racial Disparity in Police Use of Deadly Force? Analyses of Officer-Involved Fatal Shootings in 2015–2016

Is there evidence of a Black–White disparity in death by police gunfire in the United States? This is commonly answered by comparing the odds of being fatally shot for Blacks and Whites, with odds benchmarked against each group’s population proportion. However, adjusting for population values has questionable assumptions given the context of deadly force decisions. We benchmark 2 years of fatal shooting data on 16 crime rate estimates. When adjusting for crime, we find no systematic evidence of anti-Black disparities in fatal shootings, fatal shootings of unarmed citizens, or fatal shootings involving misidentification of harmless objects. Multiverse analyses showed only one significant anti-Black disparity of 144 possible tests. Exposure to police given crime rate differences likely accounts for the higher per capita rate of fatal police shootings for Blacks, at least when analyzing all shootings. For unarmed shootings or misidentification shootings, data are too uncertain to be conclusive.

O ambiente construído e a ocorrência de crimes: uma análise em estacionamentos de campus universitário

Embora haja um grande número de estudos que analisam a relação entre a forma urbana e arquitetônica e a ocorrência de crimes, estudos específicos em ambientes universitários ainda são raros. Neste trabalho, são analisados dois pares de estacionamentos no campus principal da Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), em Florianópolis, para verificar se a visibilidade, permeabilidade, nível de apropriação e diversidade de uso do solo podem ser fatores explicativos de uma maior ou menor ocorrência de crimes nesses locais. Eles foram escolhidos por apresentar, em cada par, quantidades semelhantes de vagas e quantidades contrastantes de crimes, sendo um estacionamento com alta e o outro com baixa ocorrência. A análise comparativa foi feita com base em levantamentos in loco, observação e elaboração de mapas. Os resultados indicam que a visibilidade e permeabilidade são efetivamente importantes para diminuir a ocorrência de crimes. Por outro lado, a quantidade de pessoas em cada local, por si só, não foi capaz de explicar as diferenças nas taxas de crimes, a não ser quando foi considerada sua distribuição ao longo do dia e a visibilidade a partir dos principais caminhos para os estacionamentos. Quanto aos usos do solo, os resultados mostraram-se contrários à crença disseminada entre arquitetos e urbanistas de que maior diversidade estaria relacionada a menor número de ocorrências criminais. As conclusões trazem elementos para fomentar os debates, planos e intervenções em campi universitários sob a lógica da segurança.

Criminality During the Financial Crisis in Greece

Introduction The financial crisis that began in 2008 affecting many European countries and mainly Greece has an ongoing impact on public mental health and quality of life. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential impact of the financial crisis on criminality verifying differences in crime rates between the years 2008 and 2011 in Greece. Methods Data on crime in Greece for 2008 and 2011 were provided by the Crime Analysis Section of the Public Security Department of the Hellenic Police Headquarters. In order to create a comprehensive global index of criminality we calculated an overall crime rate including the following crimes committed: homicides, financial crimes (fraud, extortion), drug-related crimes, illegal weapon possession, sex-related crimes (rape, sexual exploitation), thefts/ burglaries and robberies. The overall and the aforementioned specific crude crime rates were calculated per 100,000 residents. Paired samples t-test was used to examine the differences in the rates between 2008 and 2011. Results A significant increase in the overall crime rate between 2008 and 2011 (t=5.01, p=0.001) was found. Moreover, between 2008 and 2011 there was significant increase in the crude rates of homicide (t=2.41, p=0.03), fraud (t=7.35, p=0.001), extortion (t=3.22, p=0.009), illegal weapon possession (t=5.27, p=0.001), theft/burglary (t=4.62, p=0.001) and robbery (t=3.23, p=0.007). There were not statistical differences in the crude rates of sex-related and drug-related crime. Conclusions According to the results of this study criminality in Greece shows significant increase during the current financial crisis as reflected in many crime indicators.

Legal Status and the Criminal Activity of Immigrants

We exploit exogenous variation in legal status following the January 2007 European Union enlargement to estimate its effect on immigrant crime. We difference out unobserved time-varying factors by (i) comparing recidivism rates of immigrants from the “new” and “candidate” member countries; and (ii) using arrest data on for eign detainees released upon a mass clemency that occurred in Italy in August 2006. The timing of the two events allows us to setup a difference-in-differences strategy. Legal status leads to a 50 percent reduction in recidivism, and explains one-half to two-thirds of the observed differences in crime rates between legal and illegal immigrants. (JEL F22, K42, C41)

Social Disorganization and Crime: Searching for the Determinants of Crime at the Community Level

Robert J. Sampson and W. Byron Groves (1989) analyzed data from 238 British neighborhoods to test the mediating effect of indicators of social disorganization. Basing their work on that of Clifford R. Shaw and Henry D. McKay (1942), these researchers created indicators such as friendship networks, organizational participation, and the control of street-corner teenaged peer groups, and developed a theory of community level. In this article, we apply the formal logic of Sampson and Groves using data from the first Belo Horizonte victimization survey. In addition, we use data from the 2000 Brazilian Census and the Military Police. The results support the social disorganization theory and demonstrate that crime-rate differences are an effect of community level.

Culture, Institutions, and Morally Dubious Behaviors: Testing Some Core Propositions of the Institutional-Anomie Theory

This study draws on self-report data on the prevalence of morally dubious behaviors in Europe to examine Messner and Rosenfeld's institutional-anomie theory. Institutional-anomie theory tries to explain cross-national differences in crime rates through the interplay between the cultural commitments and the institutional arrangements characterizing a society. The relevant state of research is unsatisfactory and full of gaps. Deficiencies exist, especially with regard to the postulated cultural dynamics. Findings from a series of multilevel models testing the combined effects of cultural forces and social institutions on respondents’ engagements in morally dubious behaviors that are committed in pursuit of self-interest—thereby controlling for differences in sociodemographic composition—shed doubt on the theory's explanatory power. Neither the cultural imperatives of the “American Dream” nor the extent of anomic orientations are linked in the expected manner to the observed cross-national variation in rates of moral misconduct across Europe.

Distinguishing the City, Neighbourhood and Individual Level in the Explanation of Youth Delinquency

Previous research on intercity differences in crime rates neglects individual determinants of youth delinquency, whereas studies focusing on neighbourhoodand individual-level explanations of youth delinquency neglect higher-level, city characteristics. This raises the question of the extent to which city characteristics can contribute to the explanation of youth delinquency, above and beyond the influence of neighbourhood and individual characteristics. To answer this question we first discuss how previous macro-level research explains city differences in crime rates, and then we test whether there is empirical evidence that youth delinquency differs not only between individuals but also between neighbourhoods and, moreover, between cities. Using data collected among 12–17-year-old adolescents from 11 Dutch cities, multilevel analyses revealed that there is a substantial amount of variance to be explained at the city level, even after controlling for composition effects and differences between surveys. In contrast with previous research studying neighbourhood influences on youth delinquency but neglecting the city level, we found very little variance at the neighbourhood level. Possible explanations and implications for future research are given by linking explanations at the different levels.

The Police Use of Deadly Force: International Comparisons

While the societies of the United States of America and Canada are similar in many ways, recent research has noted significant differences in the rates of extreme violence between the two nations. Extreme violence includes the police use of deadly force, the murder of police officers by an assailant, the homicide rate of the general population and violent crime such as firearm robberies. Despite the differences in crime rates, trends in crime in the two countries are quite similar. The findings of this study illustrate that the perceived threat and calculated risk for police officers in the United States is substantially higher then for police officers in Canada, and in many other nations. This may explain why police officers in the United States utilise deadly force in greater frequency than in most western nations.

Understanding the determinants of crime

In this paper, we use an overlapping generations model where individuals are allowed to engage in both legitimate market activities and criminal behavior in order to assess the role of certain factors on the property crime rate. In particular, we investigate if differences in the unemployment rate, fraction of low human capital individuals in an economy, apprehension probability, duration of a jail sentence, and income inequality could be capable of generating large differences in crime rates that are observed across countries. We find that small differences in the apprehension probability and income inequality can generate quantitatively significant differences in the crime rates across similar environments.

Development, crime and punishment: accounting for the international differences in crime rates

This paper analyzes the determinants of the heterogeneity in crime rates across countries, focusing on reporting rates and development. The behavior of the reporting rate is studied by comparing data from victimization surveys to official records. Reporting rates are strongly correlated with development: richer countries report a higher fraction of crimes. The positive relation between development and crime found in previous studies is shown to result from this correlation. Once the presence of the reporting error is accounted for, development does not affect crime. Reductions in inequality and increases in growth and education are associated with reductions in crime rates.

A General Strain Theory of Community Differences in Crime Rates

This article draws on Agnew's general strain theory to explain community differences in crime rates. After reviewing the communities and crime research, the author discusses the ways in which community-level variables contribute to strain, including the failure to achieve positively valued goals and the loss of positive stimuli/presentation of negative stimuli. The ways in which community-level variables condition the impact of strain on crime are then examined.

Crime and the Timing of Work

Two striking facts describe work timing in the United States: A lower propensity to work evenings and nights in large metropolitan areas, and a secular decline in such work since 1973. One explanation is higher and possibly increasing crime in large areas. I link Current Population Survey data on work timing to FBI crime reports. Neither fact is explained by changes in nor inter-area differences in crime rates; but higher homicide rates do reduce such work. This reduction implicitly costs the economy between $4 and $10 billion. This negative externality illustrates a larger class of previously unmeasured costs of social pathologies.

Legal Cynicism and (Subcultural?) Tolerance of Deviance: The Neighborhood Context of Racial Differences

We advance here a neighborhood-level perspective on racial differences in legal cynicism, dissatisfaction with police, and the tolerance of various forms of deviance. Our basic premise is that structural characteristics of neighborhoods explain variations in normative orientations about law, criminal justice, and deviance that are often confounded with the demographic characteristics of individuals. Using a multilevel approach that permits the decomposition of variance within and between neighborhoods, we tested hypotheses on a recently completed study of 8,782 residents of 343 neighborhoods in Chicago. Contrary to received wisdom, we find that African Americans and Latinos are less tolerant of deviance—including violence—than whites. At the same time, neighborhoods of concentrated disadvantage display elevated levels of legal cynicism, dissatisfaction with police, and tolerance of deviance unaccounted for by sociodemographic composition and crime-rate differences. Concentrated disadvantage also helps explain why African Americans are more cynical about law and dissatisfied with the police. Neighborhood context is thus important for resolving the seeming paradox that estrangement from legal norms and agencies of criminal justice, especially by blacks, is compatible with the personal condemnation of deviance.

Sweeping Out Drugs and Crime: Residents' Views of the Chicago Housing Authority's Public Housing Drug Elimination Program

Crime and disorder have been prevalent in public housing developments since the 1960s. Various attempts, ranging from physical design modifications to intensive law enforcement strategies, have been made to combat these problems. The Chicago Housing Authority's Public Housing Drug Elimination Program (PHDEP), an extensive anticrime initiative, involves sweeping buildings for drugs and weapons, improving security, removing unauthorized tenants, responding to residents' needs for services and maintenance, and implementing drug prevention and intervention programs. This study surveyed respondents' perceptions of PHDEP's effects on drugs and crime in two housing developments chosen for their preexisting differences in crime rates and population stability. Overall, respondents in the better organized development reported more favorable perceptions of PHDEP's impact. We discuss the implications of these findings for research and public policy.

Recent trends in official male and female crime rates: The convergence controversy

There is widespread agreement with claims based on official arrest statistics that male and female crime rates have not converged in recent years. Therefore, Adler's (1975) contrary claim is rejected and so by implication are earlier proposals linking gender differences in crime rates and unusually high black female crime rates to social roles and social status. The present study evaluated earlier studies reporting little or no male-female convergence in arrest rates. Also, it used UCR statistics, as have the studies often cited as contradicting Adler, and trend analysis to show that for 1965–1975 and for 1975–1986 the evidence for both juveniles and adults supports Adler. Even national self-report data previously said to contradict the convergence hypothesis have shown substantial convergence upon reanalysis.