Differences In HIV Prevalence Research Articles

Prevalence and Residual Risk of HIV in Volunteer Blood Donors of Zhejiang Province, China, from 2018 to 2022.

Blood safety levels have been significantly improved since the implementation of nucleic acid amplification technology (NAT) testing for blood donors. However, there remains a residual risk of transfusion transmission infections. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of HIV and its residual risk transmission among volunteer blood donors of Zhejiang Province, China, for five years after NAT implementation. All specimens and information were collected from voluntary unpaid donors at all blood services in Zhejiang Province, China, from January 2018 to December 2022. The HIV antibody or antigen and HIV RNA were detected using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and NAT, respectively. The HIV residual risk transmission was calculated using the incidence or window period model. A total of 3,375,678 voluntary blood donors were detected, revealing an HIV prevalence of 9.92/100000. The HIV prevalence of blood donors in 12 blood services in Zhejiang Province was 6.11, 6.98, 7.45, 8.21, 8.36, 8.94, 9.04, 9.66, 9.73, 10.22, 11.80, and 12.47 per 100000 donors, without statistically significant difference observed among the services (p > 0.05). The HIV prevalence of males (15.49/100000) was significantly higher compared to females (1.95/100000; p < 0.05). There was an insignificant difference in HIV prevalence among blood donors of all different age groups (p > 0.05), but the HIV prevalence in the 26-35 age group and 18-25 age group was significantly higher compared to the 36-45 age group (p < 0.05). The difference in HIV prevalence between first-time blood donors (13.65/100,000) and repeat blood donors (6.78/100,000) was statistically significant (p < 0.05). From 2018 to 2022, the HIV residual risk in blood transfusion transmission was 0.266/100000. The prevalence of HIV among blood donors in Zhejiang Province, China, is associated with age, gender, and times of blood donation. The HIV residual risk in blood transfusion transmission remains low in the province, and increasing the rate of repeat blood donors is beneficial to improve blood safety.

Differences between persons with and without disability in HIV prevalence, testing, treatment, and care cascade in Tanzania: a cross-sectional study using population-based data

BackgroundPersons with disability may have a higher HIV prevalence and be less likely than persons without disability to know their HIV-positive status, access antiretroviral therapy (ART), and suppress their HIV viral load (HIV care cascade). However, studies examining differences between persons with and without disability in HIV prevalence and the HIV care cascade are lacking. Using the Tanzania HIV Impact Survey (THIS) data collected between October 2016 and August 2017, we assessed differences in HIV prevalence and progress towards achieving the 2020 HIV care cascade target between persons with and without disability.MethodsUsing the Washington Group Short Set (WG-SS) Questions on Disability, we defined disability as having a functional difficulty in any of the six life domains (seeing, hearing, walking/climbing, remembering/ concentrating, self-care, and communicating). We classified respondents as disabled if they responded having either “Some Difficulty”, “A lot of difficulties” or “Unable to” in any of the WG-SS Questions. We presented the sample characteristics by disability status and analyzed the achievement of the cascade target by disability status, and sex. We used multivariable logistic regressions, and adjusted for age, sex, rural-urban residence, education, and wealth quintile.ResultsA total of 31,579 respondents aged 15 years and older had HIV test results. Of these 1,831 tested HIV-positive, corresponding to an estimated HIV prevalence of 4.9% (CI: 4.5 — 5.2%) among the adult population in Tanzania. The median age of respondents who tested HIV-positive was 32 years (with IQR of 21—45 years). HIV prevalence was higher (5.7%, 95% CI: 5.3—7.4%) among persons with disability than persons without disability (4.3%, 95% CI: 4.0 — 4.6%). Before adjustment, compared to women without disability, more women with disability were aware of their HIV-positive status (n = 101, 79.0%, 95% CI: 68.0—87.0% versus n = 703, 63.0%, 95% CI: 59.1—66.7%) and accessed ART more frequently (n = 98, 98.7%, 95% CI: 95.3—99.7% versus n = 661, 94.7%, 95% CI: 92.6—96.3%). After adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics, the odds of having HIV and of accessing ART did not differ between persons with and without disability. However, PLHIV with disability had higher odds of being aware of their HIV-positive status (aOR 1.69, 95% 1.05—2.71) than PLHIV without disability. Men living with HIV and with disability had lower odds (aOR = 0.23, 95% CI: 0.06—0.86) to suppress HIV viral loads than their counterparts without disability.ConclusionWe found no significant differences in the odds of having HIV and of accessing ART between persons with and without disability in Tanzania. While PLHIV and disability, were often aware of their HIV-positive status than their non-disabled counterparts, men living with HIV and with disability may have been disadvantaged in having suppressed HIV viral loads. These differences are correctable with disability-inclusive HIV programming. HIV surveys around the world should include questions on disability to measure potential differences in HIV prevalence and in attaining the 2025 HIV care cascade target between persons with and without disability.

Spatial–temporal heterogeneity and determinants of HIV prevalence in the Mano River Union countries

BackgroundUtilizing population-based survey data in epidemiological research with a spatial perspective can integrate valuable context into the dynamics of HIV prevalence in West Africa. However, the situation in the Mano River Union (MRU) countries is largely unknown. This research aims to perform an ecological study to determine the HIV prevalence patterns in MRU.MethodsWe analyzed Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and AIDS Indicator Survey (AIS) data on HIV prevalence in MRU from 2005 to 2020. We examined the country-specific, regional-specific and sex-specific ratios of respondents to profile the spatial–temporal heterogeneity of HIV prevalence and determine HIV hot spots. We employed Geodetector to measure the spatial stratified heterogeneity (SSH) of HIV prevalence for adult women and men. We assessed the comprehensive correct knowledge (CCK) about HIV/AIDS and HIV testing uptake by employing the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression to predict which combinations of CCKs can scale up the ratio of HIV testing uptake with sex-specific needs.ResultsIn our analysis, we leveraged data for 158,408 respondents from 11 surveys in the MRU. From 2005–2015, Cote d'Ivoire was the hot spot for HIV prevalence with a Gi_Bin score of 3, Z-Score 8.0–10.1 and P < 0.001. From 2016 to 2020, Guinea and Sierra Leone were hot spots for HIV prevalence with a Gi_Bin score of 2, Z-Score of 3.17 and P < 0.01. The SSH confirmed the significant differences in HIV prevalence at the national level strata, with a higher level for Cote d'Ivoire compared to other countries in both sexes with q-values of 0.61 and 0.40, respectively. Our LASSO model predicted different combinations of CCKs with sex-specific needs to improve HIV testing uptake.ConclusionsThe spatial distribution of HIV prevalence in the MRU is skewed and the CCK about HIV/AIDS and HIV testing uptake are far below the threshold target set by UNAIDS for ending the epidemic in the sub-region. Geodetector detected statistically significant SSH within and between countries in the MRU. Our LASSO model predicted that different emphases should be implemented when popularizing the CCK about HIV/AIDS for adult women and men.

Clinics register based HIV prevalence in Jimma zone, Ethiopia: applications of likelihood and Bayesian approaches

BackgroundThe distribution of HIV is not uniform in Ethiopia with some regions recording higher prevalence than others. However, reported regional HIV prevalence estimates mask the heterogeneity of the epidemic within regions. The main purpose of this study was to assess the district differences in HIV prevalence and other factors that affect the prevalence of HIV infection in Jimma zone, Oromia region of Ethiopia. We aimed to identify districts which had higher or lower than zone average HIV prevalence. Such in-depth analysis of HIV data at district level may help to develop effective strategies to reduce the HIV transmission rate.MethodsData collected from 8440 patients who were tested for HIV status in government clinics at the 22 Districts between September 2018 to August 2019 in Jimma zone were used for the analyses. A generalized linear mixed effects model with district random effects was applied to assess the factors associated with HIV infection and the best linear unbiased prediction was used to identify districts that had higher or lower HIV infection. Both likelihood and Bayesian methods were considered.ResultsThe statistical test on district random effects variance suggested the need for district random effects in all the models. The results from applying both methods on full data show that the odds of HIV infection are significantly associated with covariates considered in this study. Disaggregation of prevalence by gender also highlighted the persistent features of the HIV epidemic in Jimma zone. After controlling for covariates effects, the results from both techniques revealed that there was heterogeneity in HIV infection prevalence among districts within Jimma zone, where some of them had higher and some had lower HIV infection prevalence compared to the zone average HIV infection prevalence.ConclusionsThe study recommends government to give attention to those districts which had higher HIV infection and to conduct further research to improve their intervention strategies. Further, related to those districts which had lower infection, it would be advantageous to identify reasons for their performance and may apply them to overcome HIV infection among residents in those districts which had higher HIV infection. The approach used in this study can also help to assess the effect of interventions introduced by the authorities to control the epidemic and it can easily be extended to assess the regions HIV infection rate relative to the rate at the national level, or zones HIV infection rate relative to the rate at a region level.

Trends and correlates of HIV prevalence among adolescents in South Africa: evidence from the 2008, 2012 and 2017 South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour surveys

BackgroundAdolescents are at increased risk of HIV infection compared to other age groups. There is an urgent need for strategic information that will inform programmes to reduce risk and vulnerability to HIV and reverse the pattern of increasing HIV infection as they transition to adulthood. This paper analysed trends and factors associated with HIV prevalence among adolescents in South Africa using the national HIV population-based household surveys conducted in 2008, 2012 and 2017.MethodsAll three surveys used a multistage cross-sectional design. A trend analysis was conducted to assess the differences in HIV prevalence and covariates overtime using P-trend Chi-squared statistic. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to determine factors associated with HIV prevalence.ResultsOverall there was a significant increase in HIV prevalence among adolescents aged 12–19 years from 3.0% (n = 2892) in 2008 to 3.2% (n = 4829) in 2012 and 4.1% (n = 3937) in 2017 (p = 0.031). The odds of being HIV positive among adolescents aged 12–19 years was significantly higher among females [AOR = 2.24; 95% CI (1.73–2.91); p < 0.001] than males, those residing in KwaZulu-Natal province [AOR = 2.01; 95% CI (1.-3.99); p = 0.027] than Northern Cape, and those who did not attend an educational institution and were unemployed [AOR = 2.66; 95% CI (1.91–3.67); p < 0.001] compared to those attending an educational institution. The odds were significantly lower among Whites [AOR = 0.29; 95% CI (0.09–0.93); p = 0.037], Coloureds [AOR = 0.21; 95% CI (0.11–0.37); p ≤ 0.001] and Indian/Asian [AOR = 0.08; 95% CI (0.02–0.34); p = 0.001] population groups than Black Africans.ConclusionThe observed increasing trend and gender disparities in HIV prevalence suggests an urgent need for age appropriate and gender specific HIV interventions tailored and targeted at identified drivers of HIV infection among adolescents.

Seroprevalence of hepatitis b, c and HIV among patients attending a multispecialty hospital: An 8 year old retrospective study

Background: Hepatitis B, Hepatitis C and HIV infection are serious global health problems. Many risk behaviors as well as the routes of transmission for HBV and HCV infections are identical to those for HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases. They are considered as occupational risk for dental professionals and other health care workers of getting HIV, HBV or HCV infection from an infected patient and the potential transmission to susceptible patients from infected dental personnel. Due to lack of knowledge regarding the prevalence of these viral diseases among the local populations, this study was aimed to determine the prevalence of HBV, HCV and HIV by detecting the presence of HBV antigen (HBsAg) and HCV antibodies (HCV-Ab) and HIV antibodies (HIV-Ab) and the relation of their presence with other factors such as gender and age among dental patients visiting a tertiary care teaching hospital in Moradabad city in Uttar Pradesh. Materials and Methods: Case records of a total of 3000 patients were included whose serum was screened using Rapid card diagnostic kits using standard recommended procedure. HIV TRI-DOT for HIV antibodies, HEPACARD for HBsAg and HCV TRI-DOT for HCV antibodies. All rapid test positive samples were further tested by a third-generation Enzyme linked immune sorbent assay (ELISA). Data was analyzed and put for statistical analysis. Results: The overall seroprevalence of the HIV, HBV and HCV increased over the eight year period by approximately 5%. A statistical significant difference in prevalence of HIV, HCV and HBV in male and females was obtained. A high seropositivity was prevalent in the age group of 30-40 years. Conclusion: The sero frequency of HIV, hepatitis B and C was high among patients especially from rural population visiting the tertiary health care hospital that usually go unnoticed leading to cross infection. Thus proper history taking, diagnostic tests and sterilization protocols can minimize and prevent these dreadful blood borne infections from spreading.

Intercategorical and Intracategorical Experiences of Discrimination and HIV Prevalence Among Transgender Women in San Francisco, CA: A Quantitative Intersectionality Analysis.

Objectives. To examine differences in HIV prevalence and experiences of discrimination within the trans women community in California's San Francisco Bay Area.Methods. Intersectional positions were constructed on the basis of race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Latina) and gender identity (female identifying, transgender identifying). We used baseline data from the Trans*National study (2016-2017) to construct regression models that estimated racial/ethnic differences in the attribution of discrimination experienced and, along with surrogate measures for intersectionality, estimated risk among those who were dually marginalized (racial/ethnic minority and transgender identifying). Margins plots were used to visually compare absolute risk across all intersectional positions.Results. Black and Latina trans women were more likely to be HIV positive than non-Hispanic White trans women. In several of the study domains, we estimated a lower risk of reporting discrimination among dually marginalized trans women than among White female-identifying trans women.Conclusions. Quantitative intersectionality methods highlight the diversity of experiences within the trans women community and reveal potential measurement challenges. Despite facing multiple forms of systemic marginalization, racial/ethnic minority trans women report less discrimination than White trans women. Subjective reporting of discrimination likely undercounts risks among racial/ethnic minorities.

Excess mortality risk from sepsis in patients with HIV - A meta-analysis.

Differences in HIV prevalence, access to antiretrovirals and ICU resources may result in wide variation in sepsis mortality in HIV patients. The aim of this study was to perform a meta-analysis to quantify the excess risk of sepsis mortality in HIV patients. A systematic review was performed using three databases. The systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria was used for the presumptive diagnosis of sepsis. We only included studies that stratified sepsis mortality by HIV serostatus. A meta-analysis was performed using random effects models, with subgroup analyses performed using country income, sepsis severity, and time periods. 17 studies were included, containing 82,905 patients. Sepsis mortality was found to be 28% higher in the HIV positive patients (95% CI 1.13-1.46, p<.01). Relative risk of mortality was higher in patients treated in low-income countries (RR 1.43 in low-income vs. 1.29 in high-income countries). Mortality was more pronounced in HIV patients with severe sepsis (RR 1.32 in severe sepsis vs. RR 1.15 in sepsis). HIV increases the risk of sepsis mortality compared to seronegative individuals across all time periods and geographic areas. We note that this effect is more pronounced in patients with organ dysfunction.

Understanding ethnic variations in HIV prevalence in Kenya: the role of cultural practices

Patterns of HIV prevalence in Kenya suggest that areas where various cultural practices are prevalent bear a disproportionate burden of HIV. This paper examines (i) the contextual effects of cultural practices (polygyny, male circumcision) and related sexual behaviour factors on HIV prevalence and (ii) the extent to which specific cultural practices in a community/county might explain existing ethnic variations in HIV prevalence in Kenya. The analysis applies multilevel logistic regression to data from the 2012/13 Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey. The results reveal striking ethnic variations in HIV prevalence in Kenya. The prevalence of polygyny in a community is positively associated with HIV prevalence, while a higher level of male circumcision in a county is protective for both men and women. The effects of these factors are stronger for men than women at both individual and contextual (community/county) levels. These cultural practices and associated risk factors partly explain existing ethnic differences in HIV prevalence in Kenya, but there remain significant ethnic variations that are not explained by these cultural practices or related sexual behaviour factors. These call for stronger empirical evidence to offer stronger theoretical explanations and inform effective policy and practice to address HIV epidemic in adversely affected communities in Kenya and similar settings in sub-Saharan Africa.

Difference in HIV prevalence by testing venue: results from population level survey in Uganda

ABSTRACT Growing demand for use of Health Facility (HF) HIV testing data, in addition to other testing data to obtain district level HIV prevalence requires understanding the comparability of these various sources. We analysed the 2011 Uganda AIDS indicator survey data to assess: the proportion of people tested for HIV across Uganda by venue of testing; HIV prevalence ratio for those tested in a HF compared to those tested in community setting; [Katz, D., Baptista, J., Azen, S. P., & Pike, M. C. (1978). Obtaining confidence intervals for the risk ratio in cohort studies. International Biometric Society, 34(3), 469–474. https://doi.org/10.2307/2530610] and factors associated with HIV positivity in each subgroup. Of the 11,685 individuals, 8978 (77.1%) had ever tested for HIV in a HF. Fifty nine per cent tested in a HF in the 12 months preceding the survey (female: 5507, 72.7% versus male: 1413, 34.9%). HIV prevalence ratio was 1.8 times among those tested in a HF compared to those tested at community setting (10.9% [95% CI: 10.0–11.7] versus 6.2% [95% CI: 5.4–7.0]). Among HF testers, older age group, previously married and having no sexual partner was associated with significantly higher HIV prevalence. Using facility testing data for planning and decisions should take into consideration the elevated and varying HIV prevalence among individuals accessing HIV testing services at HFs as well as differences in their social-demographic characteristics.

Heroin type, injecting behavior, and HIV transmission. A simulation model of HIV incidence and prevalence.

Background and aimsUsing mathematical modeling to illustrate and predict how different heroin source-forms: “black tar” (BTH) and powder heroin (PH) can affect HIV transmission in the context of contrasting injecting practices. By quantifying HIV risk by these two heroin source-types we show how each affects the incidence and prevalence of HIV over time. From 1997 to 2010 PH reaching the United States was manufactured overwhelmingly by Colombian suppliers and distributed in the eastern states of the United States. Recently Mexican cartels that supply the western U.S. states have started to produce PH too, replacing Colombian distribution to the east. This raises the possibility that BTH in the western U.S. may be replaced by PH in the future.DesignWe used an agent-based model to evaluate the impact of use of different heroin formulations in high- and low-risk populations of persons who inject drugs (PWID) who use different types of syringes (high vs. low dead space) and injecting practices. We obtained model parameters from peer-reviewed publications and ethnographic research.ResultsHeating of BTH, additional syringe rinsing, and subcutaneous injection can substantially decrease the risk of HIV transmission. Simulation analysis shows that HIV transmission risk may be strongly affected by the type of heroin used. We reproduced historic differences in HIV prevalence and incidence. The protective effect of BTH is much stronger in high-risk compared with low-risk populations. Simulation of future outbreaks show that when PH replaces BTH we expect a long-term overall increase in HIV prevalence. In a population of PWID with mixed low- and high-risk clusters we find that local HIV outbreaks can occur even when the overall prevalence and incidence are low. The results are dependent on evidence-supported assumptions.ConclusionsThe results support harm-reduction measures focused on a reduction in syringe sharing and promoting protective measures of syringe rinsing and drug solution heating.

Strong association between higher-risk sex and HIV prevalence at the regional level: an ecological study of 27 sub-Saharan African countries

Background: It is unclear why HIV prevalence varies by nearly two orders of magnitude between regions within countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In this ecological study, we assess if HIV prevalence by region is associated with any of four markers of higher risk sexual behavior: lifetime number of partners, multiple partners in past year, higher risk sex (defined as sex with non-cohabiting, non-marital partners) and age at debut. Methods: We performed Pearson’s correlation between the 4 behavioral risk factors and HIV prevalence by region in 47 nationally representative surveys from 27 sub-Saharan African countries, separately by gender. In addition, principal components analysis was used to reduce the eight risk factors (four for each gender) to two principal components (PCs). Mixed effects linear regression was used to assess the relationship between the resulting two PCs and HIV prevalence after controlling for the prevalence of male circumcision. Results: HIV prevalence varied by a median 3.7 fold (IQR 2.9-7.9) between regions within countries. HIV prevalence was strongly associated with higher risk sex and, to a lesser extent, the other risk factors evaluated. Both PCs were strongly associated with HIV prevalence when assessed via linear regression. Conclusions: Differences in sexual behavior may underpin the large differences in HIV-prevalence between subpopulation within sub-Saharan African countries.

Demographic factors associated with HIV infection between low and high prevalence areas in Nigeria, 2015.

IntroductionSub-Saharan Africa accounts for 66% of 36.7 million individuals living with HIV in 2015 with Nigeria having the second highest prevalence in Africa. The study aimed to find the prevalence and socio-demographic factors associated with HIV infection and compare these findings between high and low prevalence areas.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study among adults aged 15 to 49 years from March to April 2015. We administered a questionnaire to collect linked anonymous data on socio-demographic and socio-cultural characteristics and screened all respondents for HIV infection. We defined a high HIV prevalence area as area with prevalence consistently above 5% and an area with prevalence consistently below 2% as low prevalence area. We performed univariate, bivariate and logistic regration analysis to assess factors associated with HIV infection.ResultsWe screened and interviewed all 480 respondents. Majority 344 (71.7%) were females, mean age was 30.1 years (±7.4 years), high proportion were employed 246 (51.2%). In high HIV prevalence area, aged <30 years (Adjusted Odd Ratio (AOR) = 4.2, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.1-20.4) and being employed (AOR= 3.7, 95% CI=1.0-58.8) increased the likelihood of HIV infection. In low HIV prevalence area, lack of education (AOR=7.1, 95% CI= 0.9-32) was the only predictor of HIV infection.ConclusionInterplay of socio-demographic factors was responsible for differences in HIV prevalence. To further decrease prevalence in low prevalence areas (below 1%), government should make universal basic education mandatory and in high prevalence areas, interventions should target the young and the employed.

Strong association between higher-risk sex and HIV prevalence at the regional level: an ecological study of 27 sub-Saharan African countries.

Background: It is unclear why HIV prevalence varies by nearly two orders of magnitude between regions within countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In this ecological study, we assess if HIV prevalence by region is associated with any of four markers of higher risk sexual behavior: lifetime number of partners, multiple partners in past year, higher risk sex (defined as sex with non-cohabiting, non-marital partners) and age at debut. Methods: We performed Pearson's correlation between the 4 behavioral risk factors and HIV prevalence by region in 47 nationally representative surveys from 27 sub-Saharan African countries, separately by gender. In addition, principal components analysis was used to reduce the eight risk factors (four for each gender) to two principal components (PCs). Mixed effects linear regression was used to assess the relationship between the resulting two PCs and HIV prevalence after controlling for the prevalence of male circumcision. Results: HIV prevalence varied by a median 3.7 fold (IQR 2.9-7.9) between regions within countries. HIV prevalence was strongly associated with higher risk sex and, to a lesser extent, the other risk factors evaluated. Both PCs were strongly associated with HIV prevalence when assessed via linear regression. Conclusions: Differences in sexual behavior may underpin the large differences in HIV-prevalence between subpopulation within sub-Saharan African countries.

Are circumcised men safer sex partners? Findings from the HAALSI cohort in rural South Africa.

IntroductionThe real-world association between male circumcision and HIV status has important implications for policy and intervention practice. For instance, women may assume that circumcised men are safer sex partners than non-circumcised men and adjust sexual partnering and behavior according to these beliefs. Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) is highly efficacious in preventing HIV acquisition in men and this biological efficacy should lead to a negative association between circumcision and HIV. However, behavioral factors such as differential selection into circumcision based on current HIV status or factors associated with future HIV status could reverse the association. Here, we examine how HIV prevalence differs by circumcision status in older adult men in a rural South African community, a non-experimental setting in a time of expanding VMMC access.MethodsWe analyzed data collected from a population-based sample of 2345 men aged 40 years and older in a rural community served by the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System site in Mpumalanga province, South Africa. We describe circumcision prevalence and estimate the association between circumcision and laboratory-confirmed HIV status with log-binomial regression models.ResultsOne quarter of older men reported circumcision, with slightly more initiation-based circumcisions (56%) than hospital-based circumcisions (44%). Overall, the evidence did not suggest differences in HIV prevalence between circumcised and uncircumcised men; however, those who reported hospital-based circumcision were more likely to test HIV-positive [PR (95% CI): 1.28 (1.03, 1.59)] while those who reported initiation-based circumcision were less likely to test HIV-positive [PR (95% CI): 0.68 (0.51, 0.90)]. Effects were attenuated, but not reversed after adjustment for key covariates.ConclusionsMedically circumcised older men in a rural South African community had higher HIV prevalence than uncircumcised men, suggesting that the effect of selection into circumcision may be stronger than the biological efficacy of circumcision in preventing HIV acquisition. The impression given from circumcision policy and dissemination of prior trial findings that those who are circumcised are safer sex partners may be incorrect in this age group and needs to be countered by interventions, such as educational campaigns.

Approaches to Regulating Adolescent Sexual Behavior in Ghana: Qualitative Evidence from Somanya and Adidome.

This article examines perceptions of why HIV infection is severe among adolescents in Somanya and less so in Adidome-two seemingly similar communities in Ghana-through analysis of the social control measures employed by these communities to regulate adolescent sexual initiation. Using focus group discussions with parents and caregivers of adolescent children, the study found that parents in Somanya and Adidome used different regulatory mechanisms to influence adolescent sexual initiation. While parents in Somanya relied largely on parental monitoring, parents in Adidome depended more on a combination of neighborhood monitoring and community barriers (informal rules) to control adolescent sexual onset. The study findings showed that contextual factors (socioeconomic and cultural) shaped the social realities of people in these two communities accounting for the differences in HIV prevalence.

Cango Lyec (Healing the Elephant): Gender Differences in HIV Infection in Post-conflict Northern Uganda.

Background:As previously encamped resettle, potential for rapid HIV transmission in post-conflict Northern Uganda is concerning. Women in particular may be experiencing heightened vulnerability resulting from war-related sexual violence.Setting:Cango Lyec (Healing the Elephant) Project is a cohort involving conflict-affected people in 3 districts in Northern Uganda.Methods:Eight randomly selected communities were mapped, and a census was conducted. Participants aged 13–49 years completed questionnaires in Luo on war-related experiences, mental health, sexual vulnerabilities, and sociodemographics. Blood samples were tested for HIV and syphilis. Baseline data from all sexually active participants was used to determine gender differences in HIV prevalence. Multivariate modeling determined correlates of HIV by gender.Results:Among 2008 participants, HIV prevalence was higher among women [17.2; 95% confidence interval (CI): 14.7 to 19.7] compared to men (10.6; 95% CI: 8.0 to 13.2, <0.001). Among women, correlates of HIV included: war-related sexual assault [adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 1.95; 95% CI: 1.16 to 3.26]; probable depression (AOR: 2.22; 95% CI: 1.46 to 3.37); probable post-traumatic stress disorder (AOR: 2.03; 95% CI: 1.45 to 2.84); experiencing ≥12 traumatic events (AOR: 2.04; 95% CI: 1.31 to 3.18); suicide ideation (AOR: 1.67; 95% CI: 1.22 to 2.28); living in a female-headed household (AOR: 2.76; 95% CI: 1.70 to 4.49); first sexual partner ≥10 years older (AOR: 1.69; 95% CI: 1.07 to 2.67); sex for exchange (AOR: 5.51; 95% CI: 1.76 to 17.31); having 2 (AOR: 2.54; 95% CI: 1.23 to 5.23) or 3+ (AOR: 4.65; 95% CI: 2.65 to 8.18) sexual partners; inconsistent condom use (AOR: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.29 to 0.57); genital ulcers (AOR: 3.08; 95% CI: 2.16 to 4.38); active syphilis (AOR: 4.33; 95% CI: 1.22 to 15.40); and ill health without medical care (AOR: 2.02; 95% CI: 1.22 to 3.34). Among men, correlates of HIV included no condom at sexual debut (AOR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.30 to 2.83) and genital ulcers (AOR: 4.40; 95% CI: 1.35 to 14.40).Conclusion:Women are disproportionately impacted by HIV, trauma, and depression in this conflict-affected population. Trauma-informed HIV prevention and culturally safe mental health initiatives are urgently required.

HIV epidemic drivers in South Africa: A model-based evaluation of factors accounting for inter-provincial differences in HIV prevalence and incidence trends.

BackgroundHIV prevalence differs substantially between South Africa’s provinces, but the factors accounting for this difference are poorly understood.ObjectivesTo estimate HIV prevalence and incidence trends by province, and to identify the epidemiological factors that account for most of the variation between provinces.MethodsA mathematical model of the South African HIV epidemic was applied to each of the nine provinces, allowing for provincial differences in demography, sexual behaviour, male circumcision, interventions and epidemic timing. The model was calibrated to HIV prevalence data from antenatal and household surveys using a Bayesian approach. Parameters estimated for each province were substituted into the national model to assess sensitivity to provincial variations.ResultsHIV incidence in 15–49-year-olds peaked between 1997 and 2003 and has since declined steadily. By mid-2013, HIV prevalence in 15–49-year-olds varied between 9.4% (95% CI: 8.5%–10.2%) in Western Cape and 26.8% (95% CI: 25.8%–27.6%) in KwaZulu-Natal. When standardising parameters across provinces, this prevalence was sensitive to provincial differences in the prevalence of male circumcision (range 12.3%–21.4%) and the level of non-marital sexual activity (range 9.5%–24.1%), but not to provincial differences in condom use (range 17.7%–21.2%), sexual mixing (range 15.9%–19.2%), marriage (range 18.2%–19.4%) or assumed HIV prevalence in 1985 (range 17.0%–19.1%).ConclusionThe provinces of South Africa differ in the timing and magnitude of their HIV epidemics. Most of the heterogeneity in HIV prevalence between South Africa’s provinces is attributable to differences in the prevalence of male circumcision and the frequency of non-marital sexual activity.

Empirical validation of the UNAIDS Spectrum model for subnational HIV estimates: case-study of children and adults in Manicaland, Zimbabwe.

More cost-effective HIV control may be achieved by targeting geographical areas with high infection rates. The AIDS Impact model of Spectrum - used routinely to produce national HIV estimates - could provide the required subnational estimates but is rarely validated with empirical data, even at a national level. The validity of the Spectrum model estimates were compared with empirical estimates. Antenatal surveillance and population survey data from a population HIV cohort study in Manicaland, East Zimbabwe, were input into Spectrum 5.441 to create a simulation representative of the cohort population. Model and empirical estimates were compared for key demographic and epidemiological outcomes. Alternative scenarios for data availability were examined and sensitivity analyses were conducted for model assumptions considered important for subnational estimates. Spectrum estimates generally agreed with observed data but HIV incidence estimates were higher than empirical estimates, whereas estimates of early age all-cause adult mortality were lower. Child HIV prevalence estimates matched well with the survey prevalence among children. Estimated paternal orphanhood was lower than empirical estimates. Including observations from earlier in the epidemic did not improve the HIV incidence model fit. Migration had little effect on observed discrepancies - possibly because the model ignores differences in HIV prevalence between migrants and residents. The Spectrum model, using subnational surveillance and population data, provided reasonable subnational estimates although some discrepancies were noted. Differences in HIV prevalence between migrants and residents may need to be captured in the model if applied to subnational epidemics.

HIV Prevalence and ART Use Among Men in Partnerships with 15-29Year Old Women in South Africa: HIV Risk Implications for Young Women in Age-Disparate Partnerships.

This study assesses whether men's ART use mitigates HIV-risk within age-disparate partnerships. Using data from the 2012 South African National HIV survey, we analyzed differences in HIV prevalence and ART use between men in age-disparate and age-similar partnerships with young women aged 15-29 using multiple logistic regression analyses. Within partnerships involving women 15-24years old, men in age-disparate partnerships were more likely to be HIV-positive (5-9year age-gap: aOR 2.8, 95%CI 1.4-5.2; p<0.01; 10+ year age-gap: aOR 2.2, 95%CI 1.0-4.6; p<0.05). Men in age-disparate partnerships who were 5-9years older were significantly more likely to be HIV-positive and ART-naïve (aOR 2.4, 95%CI 1.2-4.8; p<0.05), while this was not the case for men 10+ years older (aOR 1.5, 95%CI 0.7-3.6; p=0.32). No evidence was found that 25-29year old women were at greater HIV-risk in age-disparate partnerships. Our results indicate that young women aged 15-24 have a greater likelihood of exposure to HIV through age-disparate partnerships, but ART use among men 10+ years older could mitigate risk.