Development Of Public Debt Research Articles

Explaining the first effects of Covid-19 on Greek banks’ profitability

Abstract The present paper studies the profitability dynamics of systemic Greek banks. By deploying an econometric methodology based on multiple linear regression analysis, we empirically investigate the drivers of banks’ return on assets between 2008 and 2020. We also shed light on the first effects of Covid-19 on banks. Examining the effects various macroeconomic, regulatory and financial factors, we find that public debt developments, including Greek debt restructuring, and banks’ provisions for credit losses had a negative effect on banks profitability. Besides, we testify that banks' capital adequacy and the size of liabilities of financial institutions towards their customers strengthened chances of increased bank profitability. We discuss the implications of our empirical findings in light of macroeconomic, regulatory and financial developments in Greece and the EU. JEL classification number: G01, G20, G21, M40, M49. Keywords: Systemic Banks, Profitability, Greece, ROA, Debt Crisis, Covid-19, Financial Analysis, Financial Ratios.

Machine Learning Algorithm for Mid-Term Projection of the EU Member States’ Indebtedness

The main research question addressed in the paper is related to the possibility of medium-term forecasting of the public debts of the EU member states. The analysis focuses on a broad range of indicators (macroeconomic, fiscal, monetary, global, and convergence) that influence the public debt levels of the EU member states. A machine learning prediction model using random forest regression was approbated with the empirical data. The algorithm was applied in two iterations—a primary iteration with 33 indicators and a secondary iteration with the 8 most significant indicators in terms of their influence and forecasting importance regarding the development of public debt across the EU. The research identifies a change in the medium term (2023–2024) in the group of the four most indebted EU member states, viz., that Spain will be replaced by France, which is an even more systemic economy, and will thus increase the group’s share of the EU’s GDP. The results indicate a logical scenario of rising interest rates with adverse effects for the fiscal imbalances, which will require serious reforms in the public sector of the most indebted EU member states.

Role and impact of public debt in financing budget deficit and economic growth - with special study in Kosovo

In this paper, we present the processes of public debt development in Kosovo for the period of its functioning, respectively from 2009 until 2018. There is no long history of it, but there is a dyn...

DEVELOPMENT OF PUBLIC DEBT IN THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC AND THE RISKS OF ITS DEEPENINING

The problem of over-indebtedness began to manifest itself significantly in the Euro area in 2009. Permanent government deficits and the global financial crisis have increased public debt in many, especially the southern Euro area countries, well above the Maastricht criterions. The Slovak Republic is not one of the countries with disproportionaly high debt, but in the era of its autonomy, it had to deal with three periods when the debt was increasing. It was a period of transformation of the economy from centrally managed to market economy after 1993, a period of economic recession due to the global financial and economic crisis and the current coronavirus pandemic, accompanied by a deep economic downturn. The need to tackle a number of inadequate social inequalities is also puttig pressure on the public finances. The aim of this article is to assess development of public debt in Slovakia and to draw attention to the risks of its deepening. Slovakia achieved relatively high levels of economic growth. These periods have not been sufficiently used to reduce public debt, which currently accounts for 48% of GDP. While its share to GDP is falling, the absolute volume of debt is increasing. Economic consequences of the current global coronavirus pandemic will cause further growth in public debt. Slovakia did not take enough opportunity in good times to prepare for the crisis period.

Reflection of public debt in financing deficit, capital investments and economic growth in Kosovo and level comparison with other countries

In this paper, we present the processes of public debt development in Kosovo for the period of its functioning, respectively from 2009 until 2018. There is no long history of it, but there is a dynamic constant growth. The methodology used in this paper is based on empirical study analysis, and the scientific literature we have elaborated has found that many thinkers who support public debt with arguments justify this non-fiscal instrument to finance the budget deficit as well as some others who object it. In addition to the international debt with 42% share, in 2012, the domestic debt began to function, with securities issuing at 58%. Along with the country's economic growth, we have also increased budget, and GDP growth. While every year we have an average economic growth of 3.2% to 3.5%. In 2013, compared to 2012, the budget increase is 1.96%, in 2016 compared to 2015 is 7%. In 2017 compared to 2016 we have a growth of 8.31%. In 2009, the debt-to-GDP ratio had a share of 6.12%, in 2014 it reached 10.65%, in 2017 the share of debt to GDP (GDP) was 16.63% and in Q3 of 2018 it was 16.92 %. In the countries of the region and the European Union we have different levels. Most states have a high level of debt to GDP.The study of the literature review was carried out using selected four databases containing publications. Research has been done to find out how much the public debt level is based on the specifics of the economy and fiscal policy in Kosovo. In addition to the dynamics of public finance development, public debt has also been realized.

Reflection of public debt in financing deficit, capital investments and economic growth in Kosovo and level comparison with other countries

In this paper, we present the processes of public debt development in Kosovo for the period of its functioning, respectively from 2009 until 2018. There is no long history of it, but there is a dynamic constant growth. The methodology used in this paper is based on empirical study analysis, and the scientific literature we have elaborated has found that many thinkers who support public debt with arguments justify this non-fiscal instrument to finance the budget deficit as well as some others who object it. In addition to the international debt with 42% share, in 2012, the domestic debt began to function, with securities issuing at 58%. Along with the country's economic growth, we have also increased budget, and GDP growth. While every year we have an average economic growth of 3.2% to 3.5%. In 2013, compared to 2012, the budget increase is 1.96%, in 2016 compared to 2015 is 7%. In 2017 compared to 2016 we have a growth of 8.31%. In 2009, the debt-to-GDP ratio had a share of 6.12%, in 2014 it reached 10.65%, in 2017 the share of debt to GDP (GDP) was 16.63% and in Q3 of 2018 it was 16.92 %. In the countries of the region and the European Union we have different levels. Most states have a high level of debt to GDP.The study of the literature review was carried out using selected four databases containing publications. Research has been done to find out how much the public debt level is based on the specifics of the economy and fiscal policy in Kosovo. In addition to the dynamics of public finance development, public debt has also been realized.

Changes in the effects of bank lending shocks and development of public debt markets

This paper investigates whether the effect of bank lending shocks has changed over time using a sign-restriction Vector Autoregression approach. To the extent to which the effect of bank lending shocks depends critically on firms’ ability to access alternative sources of financing, the rapid development in public debt markets from the 1980s might have weakened this effect. Indeed, we confirm that the effect of bank lending shocks on output has decreased significantly since the 1980s. Consistent with the financial innovation-based explanation of such reduced effects of bank lending shocks, we find that their effects on corporate bond markets have substantially changed as well. These changes in the substitutability between loans and bonds via financial innovation are key to understanding the reduced effect of bank lending shocks. Supporting our identifying assumptions regarding firms’ ability to access alternative sources of financing, the substantial decline in the effects of bank lending shocks is only observed on investment, not consumption.

IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS ON PUBLIC DEBT OF SLOVAK REPUBLIC

The paper focuses on impact of macroeconomic indicators on the development of public debt in Slovakia. The aim of the paper was to identify those macroeconomic indicators which influence the most significantly public debt in Slovakia and to elaborate and verify simple model for public debt prediction. Research was based on the analysis of chosen macroeconomic indicators. Selection of macroeconomic indicators resulted from theoretical knowledge and study of various research papers. Authors used several scientific methods, such as content-causal analysis, comparison, mathematical and statistical methods, including simple linear regression. Macroeconomic indicators, which authors proved to be statistically significant, are GDP growth rate, openness of economy, size of public sector, government bond yields, and unemployment rate. Authors elaborated model of the public debt development in Slovakia by using a simple linear regression model. Regression model was calculated using the data for 1995-2016. Authors confirmed correctness of the model by using data for 2017. Research was limited by the fact, that there are limited data available for analysis (time series of 22 years) because of short existence of independent Slovakia. It will be necessary to continue with the research and to verify correctness of chosen indicators in longer period.

Austrian Public Debt Growth: A Public Choice Perspective

This paper analyzes whether Austrian fiscal policies have been sustainable during the last five decades, concentrating on the federal (central state) level. Tests indicate that Austrian fiscal policies were sustainable, though with a decreasing weight attached to this goal. Starting in 1975, the unemployment rate played a significant role in the sense of a counter-cyclical orientation of Austrian fiscal policy as part of the concept of “Austrokeynesianism.” The development of public debt in Austria seems to be driven primarily not by ideology, but by structural causes and a shift of the budgetary policy paradigm. We find empirical evidence that governments in Austria dominated solely by one party run higher deficits than coalitions of the two large parties or the two conservative parties. There are no indications of a political business cycle.

Financial Stability Indicators and Public Debt Developments

Financial Stability Indicators and Public Debt Developments

Financial Stability Indicators and Public Debt Developments

This paper investigates the inter-linkages between financial stability and fiscal policy. It analyzes the effect of selected financial stability indicators on the probability of future debt deterioration, controlling for several macroeconomic variables. We find significant evidence that a fragile banking system can put at risk public finances. Weak bank profitability, low asset quality and a weak capital base increase the fragility of the banking system, thus, raising the probability of future fiscal troubles.

Financial stability indicators and public debt developments

This paper investigates the inter-linkages between financial stability and fiscal policy. It analyzes the effect of selected financial stability indicators on the probability of future debt deterioration, controlling for several macroeconomic variables. We find significant evidence that a fragile banking system can put at risk public finances. Weak bank profitability, low asset quality and a weak capital base increase the fragility of the banking system, thus, raising the probability of future fiscal troubles.

Firms’ debt choice in Africa: Are institutional infrastructure and non-traditional determinants important?

We use a World Bank survey data on the financing of incremental production to examine firms’ debt choice decision in eleven African countries, where capital markets are evolving and/or fraught with inadequate institutional infrastructure. Such a landscape suggests that hitherto overlooked nontraditional factors and institutions may be important determinants of debt choice. Interestingly, we find that some nontraditional factors and institutional infrastructure are robust debt choice determinants. Education level of managers, national incidence of corruption and ethnicity of owners are important for non-bank debt choice in Africa, with non-bank debt markets populated largely by the less formal trade credit and lease markets. Both effective legal and political infrastructures foster firms’ preference for non-bank debt while macro-instability discourages preference for non-bank debt; thus, flagging institutional infrastructures as vital for effective non-bank debt markets. Furthermore, we find evidence which confirms that capital markets in Africa are insufficiently spanned by the necessary debt markets; this should motivate relevant authorities to hasten development of public debt markets to supplement the currently limiting non-bank debt markets of trade credits and leases.

Do Personal Characteristics of Finance Ministers Affect the Development of Public Debt?

Using a unique dataset of personal characteristics of national finance ministers in Europe (1980 – 2010), I show that especially a finance minister’s experience affects the development of public debt. Both a finance minister’s experience gained in office and his political experience have an impact: The change of the debt to GDP ratio is negative the more experience a finance minister has gained as a minister of finance or in former positions as a national cabinet member. While the former result suffers from potential endogeneity, several arguments support that the latter result can be interpreted in a causal way. In contrast, a finance minister’s educational background or ideology have no significant impact on public debt changes.

A reflection of history: fluctuations in Greek sovereign risk between 1914 and 1929

Time series of daily data for Greek sovereign risk have been compiled and analysed statistically to shed light on the way that historical events, including political and institutional changes, determined the creditworthiness of the Greek government on the London stock market from the start of the Great War until the Great Crash. No a priori important dates were specified. The Asia Minor campaign and its aftermath exerted a strongly negative impact on the value of Greek sovereign debt and as a result the risk premium increased rapidly. Statistical analysis shows that investors acted upon news of fiscal performance and public debt developments. Unforeseen political changes also influenced market participants' expectations. In contrast, institutional innovations such as the adoption of the gold exchange standard and the establishment of a central bank de novo did not result in any quantitative market response. However, stabilization and the concomitant institutional reforms were gradually factored into the market price of Greek sovereign debt traded in London and as a result the creditworthiness of the Greek government steadily improved.

Is the Austrian public debt sustainable?

Sustainability of public deficit and debt in the long run has received much attention in the international political agenda. This paper analyses whether Austrian fiscal policies have been sustainable during the last five decades. Tests indicate that Austrian fiscal policies were sustainable from 1960 to 1974, while from 1975 onwards public debt grew much more rapidly. Starting in 1975, the rate of unemployment played a significant role in the sense of a counter-cyclical orientation of Austrian fiscal policy as part of the concept of ‘Austrokeynesianism’. The development of public debt in Austria seems to be driven not only by ideology, but also by structural causes and a shift of the budgetary policy paradigm. We find some empirical evidence that governments in Austria dominated solely by one party run higher deficits than coalitions of the two large parties or the two conservative parties. There are no indications of a political business cycle.

Italian Public Debt Since National Unification: A Reconstruction of the Time Series

The paper presents the results of a reconstruction of the Italian public debt series since national unification. Computations use today's statistical methodology to obtain a database consistent with the national accounts. The reference sector is general government, not the state sector, as in many previous studies; the definition refers to consolidated gross debt (within and across subsectors). The database includes monthly times series for overall debt and its breakdowns by instrument and subsector. Given their frequency and length, the new data might be a useful tool for economic historians and students of public economics. The work briefly presents the methodology and describes public debt developments over the last 150 years. Compared with previous data, the new series show higher debt average. The project is completed by a methodological annex in which sources and methods are described in more detail and by a database with monthly time series for the debt, its breakdown by instrument and subsector, and the consolidating items. All three components are available on the Bank of Italy website; in the future the series will be updated monthly and will remain available on the statistical section of the website.

Schuldenbremse oder Schuldenschranke für die deutschen Bundesländer?

Summary This paper studies two alternative budget rules to overcome the shortcomings of the current laws for the German Länder: The Swiss debt brake as well as a version incorporating a golden rule presented by the German Council of Economic Experts. A simulation analysis reveals the necessary consolidation path, the loss of benefits, and the recursive development of public debt. Extending the standard simulation method we present a politico-economic approach considering the budget rules in their full complexity. The Swiss debt brake yields stronger restrictions on public debt than the version incorporating the golden rule. Yet applying the simulation to both Länder and their municipalities leads to contrasting results.

'Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic': The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Public Debt Dynamics Since the 1970s

Shocks to monetary and fiscal policy have played a major role in public debt developments in the OECD countries since the mid-1970s. According to the applied VAR approach, these shocks, taken together, explained, on average, about half of the forecast error variation in the debt to GDP ratio, while the share of shocks to GDP growth was close to 30 percent. In contrast, shocks to inflation and the debt ratio itself played in most cases only a minor role. However, the inflation shocks were vital in initiating the public debt problems, as the increase in actual inflation, and particularly the persistence of high inflation expectations in the 1980s, led to a prolonged period of high real interest rates. Learning the implications of greater monetary discipline therefore gave rise to 'some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic' which aggravated debt problems. In most countries fiscal policy aimed at correcting the deterioration in fiscal balances, but the progress was in most cases slow and delayed. It is noticeable that public debt developments have been quite similar in both the United States and the euro area despite differences in fiscal policy and the role of the public sector. Shocks to GDP growth, inflation and monetary policy, which have been more similar in both continents, explain about two thirds of the forecast error variation of the debt to GDP ratio, while shocks to fiscal policy explain about 20 percent.

Adapting the Swiss Debt Brake to the German Bundesländer

This paper analyses the shortcomings of the current budget rules for the Bundeslander, especially the definition of public investment that is used as a deficit ceiling in Germany. Two alternative budget rules are analysed, the Swiss debt brake as well as a version incorporating a golden rule presented by the German Council of Economic Experts. A simulation reveals the necessary consolidation path, the loss of benefits, and the recursive development of public debt. In addition to the standard simulation method we present a politico-economic approach that leads to new results.