Hydropower Development Research Articles

Avoiding ecosystem and social impacts of hydropower, wind, and solar in Southern Africa’s low-carbon electricity system

The scale at which low-carbon electricity will need to be deployed to meet economic growth, electrification, and climate goals in Africa is unprecedented, yet the potential land use and freshwater impacts from this massive build-out of energy infrastructure is poorly understood. In this study, we characterize low-impact onshore wind, solar photovoltaics, and hydropower potential in Southern Africa and identify the cost-optimal mix of electricity generation technologies under different sets of socio-environmental land use and freshwater constraints and carbon targets. We find substantial wind and solar potential after applying land use protections, but about 40% of planned or proposed hydropower projects face socio-environmental conflicts. Applying land and freshwater protections results in more wind, solar, and battery capacity and less hydropower capacity compared to scenarios without protections. While a carbon target favors hydropower, the amount of cost-competitively selected hydropower is at most 45% of planned or proposed hydropower capacity in any scenario—and is only 25% under socio-environmental protections. Achieving both carbon targets and socio-environmental protections results in system cost increases of 3-6%. In the absence of land and freshwater protections, environmental and social impacts from new hydropower development could be significant.

Threats of dams to the persistence of the world's freshwater fishes

AbstractHabitat fragmentation due to dams is a well‐known threat to freshwater fish. Yet, the global consequences of fragmentation for the viability of freshwater fish populations are unknown. Here, we provide the first global assessment of the threats of dams to the persistence of freshwater fish species. We developed a global macroecological relationship between freshwater fish range size and body size and used this relationship to assess whether isolated range fragments are too small to support a species. Our assessment includes 7369 freshwater fish species and considers the effects of 31,780 dams globally. Furthermore, we performed a more detailed analysis of the threats of dams in Brazil, the greater Mekong region and the United States, using complementary national and regional data sets. Globally, more than half of the species analysed face extirpation in a part of their geographic range, with an average potential range loss of 3.3% (95%‐range: 0%–31.8%) across all species analysed. For 74 fish species, occurring in Brazil, China, India, the Mekong basin, the United States, South‐Africa and the East Adriatic Coast, more than 50% of their range is potentially lost. This includes 18 species threatened with extinction across their whole range. Our complementary regional analysis revealed that the potentially lost range increases by a factor of 2–4 when considering both large and small dams compared with considering only large dams (≥15 m), highlighting the need to establish more comprehensive global dam inventories. Our novel approach and global analysis identifies species at risk of extirpation as well as geographic hotspots of extirpation threat by dams, which can aid in establishing more effective strategies for global hydropower development and barrier removal efforts to optimise the trade‐offs between biodiversity conservation and the socio‐economic benefits of dams.

Preferences and Willingness to Pay for Preservation: The Case of a Proposed Hydropower Project in Southern Iceland

When decision makers use a financial approach to review the costs and benefits of new renewable energy projects, the economic value of changes in social welfare resulting from impacts on natural resources is not included in the analysis. Iceland’s policy objective for carbon neutrality by 2040 will require constructing new power plants. This study aimed to estimate the economic preservation value for the Hólmsá and Tungufljót river basins in southern Iceland using the contingent valuation method. A web-based survey of Icelandic residents was conducted between 13 November 2022 and 19 December 2022 using a stratified random sample of 2909 adults. The response rate was 46.6%, with 35.1% of respondents indicating a willingness to pay (WTP) to protect the area from hydropower development. After excluding protest voters and accounting for those with and without WTP, the estimated mean WTP equaled ISK 5515. When scaled to the adult population of Icelandic residents, that equates to a total environmental and social cost of between ISK 1.52 and 1.70 billion. Compared to the estimated levelized cost of energy for the Hólmsárvirkjun at Atley hydropower project, this aggregation equates to an estimated 5.6% markup in total project costs, excluding transmission lines. Accounting for these economic costs in decision making allows for a more holistic understanding of new energy project costs and net present benefits.

A hydropower development perspective in Ecuador: past, present, and future

Ecuador is a small Andean country located in the western hemisphere of South America. The country has 361.747hm3 annual superficial water resources; As a result, Ecuador, in the last fifteen years (2005 to 2020), has been rapidly developing hydropower projects to triple the production in this renewable source. There were eight new hydroelectric plants constructed in Ecuador among 2007 and 2015 invested close to USD 6 billion the projects. Increased the energy response with renewables; for example, in 1985, the country produced 4 TWh, in 2005-registered 7 TWh, and to 2020, 24 TWh. According to the Electricity Corporation of Ecuador in 2020 reported that generated around 80% of all electricity through hydropower; thus, the article aims to critically analyze the development of hydropower in Ecuador in recent years and establish general energy projections to 2030 to expand the fields of knowledge and perspectives. The paper methodology is quantitative, according to scientific editorial sources, articles, investigative documents, and collects data from government agencies that regulate energy development in Ecuador. It is conclusive between a projection’s calculation, Ecuador will need for the year 2030 around 43 TWh, 47 TWh, or 52 TWh to supply the energy grid, according to the scenarios proposed (low, medium, high). Although hydropower will be essential to contribute to this requirement, the country has a barrier because hydropower is very sensitive to external factors of diverse nature, generating an uncertainly future directly associated with climatic effects.

China's transboundary hydropower development at home and abroad: exploring the regulatory interface between international water law and international economic law

China, located upstream on most of the major transboundary waters shared with vast populations across Asia, is heavily invested in developing hydropower at home and abroad. Some of this hydropower development involves freshwaters that cross national borders raising complex issues in international law, a situation exacerbated by growing economic, environmental, and regional security pressures. In such a context, where conflicts-of-use are almost certain to arise, it is essential to understand the rules that apply so as to enhance opportunities for enhanced transboundary water cooperation. This paper examines the rules of international water law and international economic law that apply to transboundary hydropower development, with a focus on China as one of the key actors in this field. The aim is to examine the regulatory interface of relevant legal frameworks with a focus on China's approach to transboundary hydropower development at home and abroad. While international economic—and more specifically international investment law—is not directly concerned with international water law, host states and foreign investors must be informed, and take into account, the legal obligations governing transboundary waters. China's position as a major water user (at home) and significant investor (abroad) on transboundary waters, makes it a unique case study for exploring the rules of international law that apply in two different regulatory settings. The work examines the rules of law in each of these domains and reveals the inapparent linkages across these seemingly unconnected areas of international regulation.

Assessing the existing guidelines of environmental impact assessment and mitigation measures for future hydropower projects in Pakistan

Introduction: More than 16% of the total electricity used worldwide is met by hydropower, having local to regional environmental consequences. With positive indicators that energy is becoming more broadly available and sustainable, the world is moving closer to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7). Pakistan became the first nation to include the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in its national development strategy.Methodology: The current study sought to investigate the structural limits of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) guidelines for hydropower development in Pakistan. The study included the document review of the EIA reports about hydropower projects in Pakistan, scientific questionnaires from decision-makers, and public consultation.Results and Discussion: The document evaluates that an adequate mechanism is available, and donors like the Asian Development Bank and World Bank observe the implementation process of EIA in Pakistan. However, a comprehensive analysis of the EIA system found several things that could be improved, not only in the institutional framework but also in actual implementation and practices. More than 20% of respondent decision-makers disagreed with the compliance of the current Institutional Framework with EIA guidelines, and 25% think that the existing guidelines followed in Pakistan are not aligned with international standards and practices for Hydropower in actual practice. EIA has a limited impact on decision-making due to insufficient technical and financial resources.Recommendations: There should be a think tank with experts who can meet the needs of present and future epochs. The public should be communicated with and educated about EIA. For better efficiency, the officers and decision-makers should be trained internationally, i.e., the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA).

European Green Deal + Poland + hydroelectric plants = Future?

This study considers the current state of hydropower in Poland and the legal and environmental conditions for its development. The research objective was to provide insights into the future of hydropower in Poland. An attempt was made to determine the direction of hydropower development in Poland by 2050, taking into account the requirements of the European Green Deal. The basic method used is logical argumentation, which is in turn based on a critical analysis of planning documents and scientific papers. Statistical data on the production and consumption of hydropower were also analysed. Currently, Poland’s potential for hydropower production is not being fully exploited. The main reasons for this are a lack of political support and socio-ecological issues associated with the need to take over inhabited areas or areas of high natural value. The analysis of the state of hydropower in Poland indicates that urgent intervention is required in many areas. This applies, especially, to issues of the control, modernisation and technical condition of hydropower plants and damming facilities. The potential for the development of hydropower in Poland is assessed to be very small. Environmental, socio-economic and legal conditions are unfavourable to the construction of new, large hydropower plants. The exception is pumped-storage power plants, which, acting as energy storage facilities, should in the future constitute an important element of the Polish energy system. The possibility of using defunct lignite mining pits for this purpose is indicated. It is shown that some of Poland’s former lignite mines are also conveniently located. The possible beneficial impact of building pumped-storage power plants into the water ecosystem of central Poland is emphasised.

Climate Extremes and Sustainability Issues: A Case of Proposed Hydropower Projects in Lahaul Valley, Himachal Pradesh

Water and energy are the key to development; however, a great deal of contestation is at the very core of hydropower and sustainability debate in the context climate change and risk of disasters. A vast potential for renewable energy in the Himalayas has led to planning for hydropower projects since 1990s. However, social, economic and environmental issues linked to such development has also led to a fear among local communities in light of climate change. This study analysed the relation between climate extremes, disaster risk and hydropower development in Lahaul Valley of Himachal Pradesh. The study examined long-term climate data for precipitation and temperature trends while daily rainfall gridded data was used for the analysis of climate extremes. The results show statistically significant increase in precipitation intensity and rise of winter and post winter temperature. Also, heavy and very heavy rainfall days, daily rainfall intensity shows increasing trends that may have serious repercussions on local economy, livelihood and hydropower development. The field observations reveal discontentment of local population to proposed development. It is important that this debate must be reviewed logically to ensure safe future of the area with sound understanding of disasters and climate change risk.

Enhanced bi-layer scheduling strategies for the cascade hydropower-photovoltaic complementary system using a novel meta-heuristic algorithm

Improving energy efficiency is crucial for China’s power industry to meet global energy conservation and emission reduction goals. The rapid development of photovoltaic (PV) and hydropower has greatly assisted in the construction of China’s novel power system. The stochastic characteristics of PV power generation pose significant challenges to the reliable and economical scheduling of power systems. In fact, the cascade hydropower station can effectively address the issue. To fully utilize the advantages of hydropower, this paper proposes a bi-layer scheduling optimization model for the cascade hydro-PV complementary system considering power market. The upper-layer model simultaneously maximizes the benefit and minimizes the output volatility of the complementary system. The lower-layer model carries out market clearing with the objective of social cost. Besides, PV uncertainty and market price volatility are considered in the decision-making process for power market transactions. To solve the bi-layer model, a novel meta-heuristic algorithm (geometric mean optimizer) is applied, demonstrating excellent performance compared to similar methods. For the complementary system, the results show that its total power output can be improved, and its output volatility can be effectively alleviated.

Does a hydropower reservoir cascade really harm downstream nutrient regimes

River damming is believed to largely intercept nutrients, particularly retain more phosphorus (P) than nitrogen (N), and thus harm primary productivity, fishery catches, and food security downstream, which seriously constrain global hydropower development and poverty relief in undeveloped regions and can drive geo-political disputes between nations along trans-boundary rivers. In this study, we investigated whether reservoirs can instead improve nutrient regimes downstream. We measured different species of N and P as well as microbial functions in water and sediment of cascade reservoirs in the upper Mekong River over 5 years and modelled the influx and outflux of N and P species in each reservoir. Despite partially retaining total N and total P, reservoirs increased the downstream flux of ammonium and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP). The increase in ammonium and SRP between outflux and influx showed positive linear relationships with the hydraulic residence time of the cascade reservoirs; and the ratio of SRP to dissolved inorganic nitrogen increased along the reservoir cascade. The lentic environment of reservoirs stimulated algae-mediated conversion of nitrate into ammonium in surface water; the hypoxic condition and the priming effect of algae-induced organic matter enhanced release of ammonium from sediment; the synergy of microbial phosphorylation, reductive condition and sediment geochemical properties increased release of SRP. This study is the first to provide solid evidence that hydropower reservoirs improve downstream nutrient bioavailability and N-P balance through a process of retention-transformation-transport, which may benefit primary productivity. These findings could advance our understanding of the eco-environmental impacts of river damming.

Transnational governance standards in ensuring sustainable development and operation of hydropower projects in transboundary basins

The notion of “transnational” law encompasses a sophisticated corpus of globally applicable rules, standards and safeguards, often informal in origin, which are widely accepted around the world and supported across a range of business sectors and civil society constituencies. The recent proliferation of such “transnational” law extends to the hydropower sector, where normative standards and safeguards increasingly apply to promote and certify sustainable practices in the development and operation of hydropower projects. Such projects are associated with significant environmental and social impacts and the projected increase in hydropower investments, mainly in emerging economies, will require effective supplemental regulatory tools. Many such projects will be located in, or impact upon, international rivers, thereby adding a further layer of complexity regarding their effective regulation and increased the risk of inter-State disputes over the equitable use of shared waters. Such complexity and risk will be exacerbated by increased uncertainty due to climate change. Thus, the existence of widely accepted transnational standards, which are relevant and applicable to hydropower development globally, can play a key role in building trust between watercourse States and in promoting greater transboundary water cooperation. This article explores the potential role of transnational standards in improved regulation of environmental and social impacts associated with hydropower projects located on international watercourses and the extent to which such standards cohere with established and emerging requirements of international water law. It thus examines the synergies arising between these informal and formal regulatory frameworks with a view to developing a better understanding of their interaction in practice. In so doing, it focuses on two key categories of applicable transnational regime: a sustainability certification and labeling scheme dedicated to hydropower projects and operated by the Hydropower Sustainability Council; and MDB environmental and social safeguard standards imposed upon major water-related projects, including hydropower projects, particularly those adopted by the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

ЭКОЛОГИЧЕСКИЕ И СОЦИАЛЬНЫЕ ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯ РАЗВИТИЯ ГИДРОЭНЕРГЕТИКИ НА ВОСТОЧНО-ЕВРОПЕЙСКОЙ РАВНИНЕ В ПЕРВОЙ ТРЕТИ XX В.

The article analyses the negative environmental and social consequences of hydropower development in the first third of the 20th century. The author examines the changes in the assessment of damage caused by hydraulic engineering works between the 1890s and 1930s. The study aims to answer the following questions. How did the state, society, and science interpret the concepts of ‘damage’ and ‘harm’ caused by large-scale transformations of landscapes? How did these interpretations and understanding of damage from flooding of territories change during the first third of the 20th century? The study focuses on the government policy regarding hydropower development on the East European Plain, one of the oldest developed regions of the country. It also considers the activities of research institutes studying the impact of water reservoirs on the environment, as well as the population’s attitude towards the flooding of territories and resettlement policy. The study’s results indicate that expert, scientifically based assessments of the impact of water reservoirs on the environment and the planned economy are crucial in matters of hydropower development and resettlement policy. In the 1920s and 1930s, the scientific community was first confronted with the challenges posed by the overgrowth and siltation of reservoirs, changes in floodplain ecosystems, and other issues. Due to the increasing scale of hydroelectric power stations construction and the need to preserve agricultural land and forests, measures were developed during this period to minimize the negative consequences of flooding and inundation of areas. In implementing hydropower projects, the government authorities focused primarily on economic considerations. However, the long-term environmental and social consequences of this construction continue to affect society today.

Study on the multi-level evaluation method of small hydropower sustainable development

Currently, there is a lack of a comprehensive evaluation method for assessing the sustainability of small hydropower at different levels. This deficiency hinders the rational planning of small hydropower development and utilization, as well as the delicate balance between safeguarding and harnessing small hydropower resources. To address this gap, this study primarily focuses on establishing a comprehensive evaluation system for the sustainability of small hydropower at the international, national, and individual power station levels. On the international stage, an evaluation index system is formulated, and a national quantitative assessment model for small hydropower sustainability is developed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) combined with fuzzy evaluation techniques. The research is exemplified by investigating countries within the Belt and Road Initiative. At the national level, models for assessing the overall development status and spatial distribution patterns of small hydropower are created. The study thoroughly examines the temporal and spatial evolution patterns and trends in the sustainable development of small hydropower in various provinces and states, with China serving as a case study. At the individual power station level, a green evaluation model is established to comprehensively assess small hydropower stations. This model considers ecological, social, managerial, and economic dimensions to evaluate the environmental sustainability of each small hydropower station.

Research on methods and scale of deeply exploitable hydropower resources

Deep development of hydropower is an important measure to optimize the structure of clean energy, meet the peak shaving and backup needs of the power system, and achieve the national dual carbon goals. This article conducts a systematic analysis of the development potential of developed and undeveloped hydraulic resources, including unplanned river sections, undeveloped planned power stations, unit renovation and capacity expansion, and the expansion of existing/ongoing power stations. We focused on studying the factors that affect the deep development of hydropower, including the reasonable operation mode of hydropower with different regulation performance in the power grid, the energy structure characteristics of the power system, and the comprehensive water use requirements. A calculation method for the reasonable installation and utilization hours and deep development resources of hydropower stations with different regulation performance after deep development has been proposed. According to calculations, Zhejiang Province can increase its scale by 3331MW, with great potential for deep development.

Water and carbon footprints for Vidraru hydropower development, Romania

Although the important positive effects that lakes have ondevelopment at the regional level and beyond, they also have a negativeimpact related to the large amounts of water that they can consume byevaporation. This paper quantifies the effects that one of the largestartificial lakes in Romania (with complex use) has on the environment byestimating the blue water footprint and the carbon footprint. Thus, ananalysis is made of the evolution of the blue water footprint and carbonintensity (calculated for a 100-year life cycle) for 16 years and Pearsoncorrelation coefficients for these indicators are investigated. During the2008-2023 study period, the mean water footprint for the Vidraruhydropower plant was 5.07 m3/GJ and the carbon intensity varies between7.1 to 5.24 gCO2/kWh, with a polynomial trend. Those results are in goodagreement compared with the literature presenting results related to largereservoirs.

The water resource efficiency and water-saving effect of cascade hydropower development

The water resource efficiency and water-saving effect of cascade hydropower development

Differential controls on CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> emissions from the free-flowing Neretva River, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Streams and rivers emit methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2), two greenhouse gasses contributing to global warming. Estimates for diffusive gas emissions can be obtained by multiplying the concentration gradient between water and atmosphere with the gas transfer velocity. The latter is purely physically constrained, yet spatially highly variable. And - in a flowing water ecosystem - the local concentration gradient is the result of a dynamic balance between upstream evasion and resupply. The collection of representative emission data is thus challenging and emissions of river ecosystems are rarely assessed considering temporal variability and spatial dependence at network scale. In this study, we uncover spatial heterogeneity and controls of concentrations and emission fluxes of the two greenhouse gasses, CH4 and CO2, along a 50 km length of a pristine river system, the Neretva River in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This remote river network has so far remained barely influenced by human activities and the hydromorphological status is to date not altered. The Neretva can therefore serve as a reference for similar systems in the region. This seems to be particularly important as rivers in the Western Balkans, including the Neretva, are currently experiencing a surge in hydropower development and damming, which is known to strongly affect riverine greenhouse gas emissions. We found high emissions as a result of co-occurrence of high concentration with high exchange velocity, but we identified different underlying mechanistic processes driving the evasion of the two gasses. CH4 was strongly supply-limited: elevated concentrations were exclusively measured in a large pool (0.84 µmol L-1 compared to a median concentration of 0.005 µmol L-1 in the entire study section). This resulted in CH4 evasion being four orders of magnitude higher in the turbulent reach following the pool (22 mmol m-2 d-1) compared to the median evasion at network scale (0.06 mmol m-2 d-1). In contrast, CO2 evasion was more variable in time and equally dependent on CO2 and gas exchange velocity. The construction of dams intended in this area would lead to reservoirs of slowly flowing or standing water with similar habitat conditions as the observed CH4-hotspot. The concomitant increase in residence time and higher retention of organic material will lead to an increase of CH4 production replacing aerobic respiration. Consequently, CH4 emissions can be expected to drastically increase by orders of magnitude. This greenhouse gas footprint of hydropower generation may counteract the promised climate benefits in terms of renewable energy production.

HYDROELECTRIC PLANTS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR ENERGY SECURITY / ՀԻԴՐՈԷԼԵԿՏՐԱԿԱՅԱՆՆԵՐԸ ԷՆԵՐԳԵՏԻԿ ԱՆՎՏԱՆԳՈՒԹՅԱՆ ԿԱՐԵՎՈՐ ԳՈՐԾՈՆ

Currently, a large amount of work is being done for the development of hydropower in Armenia. However, there is still a lot to be done to build new powerful plants and modernize the old ones. At the moment the Sevan-Hrazdan, Vorotan cascades and other HPPs are being operated, which provide a third of Armenia's electricity. From the point of view, it is also important to put the energy use of small water flows on the agenda. It is planned to build the Meghri and Shnogh HPPs, which will make it possible to improve the situation to some extent. The design and operation of hydroelectric power plants is of great importance for the development of Armenia's energy. It will provide an opportunity to improve the energy security of our country. The purpose of the work is to substantiate the need to build a hydroelectric power station on the Chknagh River near the city of Stepanavan in Lori Marz, RA. Methodology. The basic equations of hydraulics, as well as the basic laws of HPP design, were used in the research. Scientific novelty. It is justified that if we build a hydroelectric power station on Chknagh river, we can save 3460 tons of organic fuel per year and solve many environmental problems. Applicability. The proposal can be applied in the Lori region of the Republic of Armenia. It has been established that in case of building a hydroelectric power plant on the Chknagh River, we can save 3460 tons of organic fuel per year and improve the climatic conditions. We can produce 17.13 million kWh of electricity annually. The purchase period with investments is 10.4 years.

From theoretical to sustainable potential for run-of-river hydropower development in the upper Indus basin

A comprehensive assessment of hydropower resource potential considering factors beyond technical and financial parameters is missing for the upper Indus basin (UIB). Our framework takes a systems approach to quantify the theoretical to sustainable hydropower potential by successively considering natural, technical, financial, anthropogenic, environmental, and geo-hazard risk constraints on hydropower at individual sites as well as at the basin-scale. Theoretical potential of the UIB is 1564 TWh/yr at 500-m resolution. Across three energy focus and three geo-hazard risk scenarios, our cost-minimization model finds that technical (12%–19%), financial (6%–17%) and sustainable (2%–10%) potential are a small portion of the theoretical value. Mixed development combining plants of various size, cost and configuration provides the highest potential with the best spatial coverage. Alongside, our review of 20 datasets reveals a visualized potential exceeding 300 TWh/yr from 447 hydropower plants across the UIB, with only a quarter of the potential materialized by mostly large plants in the mainstreams. Hydropower cost curves show that Swat and Kabul sub-basins have a larger proportion of cost-effective and sustainable potential untapped by the visualized potential. Water use for other sectors represents the strongest constraints, reducing a third of the technical potential when evaluating sustainable potential. Ultimately, human decisions regarding scale, configuration and sustainability have a larger influence on hydropower potential than model parameter assumptions. In quantifying hydropower potential under many policy scenarios, we demonstrate the need for defining hydropower sustainability from a basin-scale perspective towards energy justice and balanced fulfilment of Sustainable Development Goals for water and energy across the Indus.

Study on the Annual Runoff Forecast Model of the Main Stream of Nanxi River Based on PSO-ANFIS

In 2021, Wenzhou adopted measures to restrict the use of electricity, and the shortage of electricity became an important factor affecting the production and life of Wenzhou. Nanxi River is one of the main rivers in Wenzhou City, and its water resources are very rich. According to the statistics of the water conservancy planning of the Nanxi River basin, there are 96 hydropower stations in the Nanxi River basin, with a total installed capacity of 152100 kW, accounting for 57% of the installed capacity. The development and utilization of the Nanxi River water resources can alleviate the power shortage in Wenzhou power grid to a certain extent. The development and utilization of hydropower are closely related to the runoff of the basin. The river runoff is mainly determined by rainfall, underlying surface and upstream inflow. River runoff is affected by many factors in the process of formation, so it is difficult to improve its prediction accuracy. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the runoff of the main stream of the Nanxi River, this paper introduces the runoff prediction model of particle swarm optimization adaptive fuzzy inference system (PSO-ANFIS). ANFIS model has the advantages of applying fuzzy rules and the nonlinear approximation ability of neural network, but the antecedent parameters of ANFIS model are prone to fall into local optimization. In order to improve the generalization ability of the antecedent parameters of ANFIS model, the PSO algorithm of global optimization is introduced to optimize the antecedent parameters of ANFIS. Through the application of the example, it is found that the decision coefficient of PSO-ANFIS model in the simulation stage is 0.987, and the decision coefficient in the prediction stage is 0.856. This model can be applied in the annual runoff forecast. Through comparison with ANFIS model, it is found that PSO-ANFIS model has better prediction effect.