Deutsch Mark Research Articles

Comments by Naoyuki Yoshino, on RMB Bloc in East Asia: Too Early to Talk About It?

October 01 2018 Comments by Naoyuki Yoshino, on RMB Bloc in East Asia: Too Early to Talk About It? Author and Article Information Online Issn: 1536-0083 Print Issn: 1535-3516 © 2018 by the Asian Economic Panel and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology2018Massachusetts Institute of Technology Asian Economic Papers (2018) 17 (3): 50–53. https://doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00630 Cite Icon Cite Permissions Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Views Icon Views Article contents Figures & tables Video Audio Supplementary Data Peer Review Search Site Citation Comments by Naoyuki Yoshino, on RMB Bloc in East Asia: Too Early to Talk About It?. Asian Economic Papers 2018; 17 (3): 50–53. doi: https://doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00630 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Reference Manager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentAll JournalsAsian Economic Papers Search Advanced Search Naoyuki Yoshino: There was a discussion on the possibility of a yen bloc in the early 1990s. Frankel and Wei suggested that the U.S. dollar had a dominant influence in the western hemisphere and the Deutsch mark similarly dominated in Europe. On the other hand, East Asian countries were more properly classified as a dollar bloc than a yen bloc. This paper provides empirical evidence on whether East Asia can be considered a RMB bloc. The paper focuses on measuring empirical evidence in exchange rate determination. Many papers use the Swiss franc as a numeraire currency. Here, however, the authors found that the New Zealand dollar leads to a more stable coefficient compared with the Swiss franc. Empirical results are based on two-step regressions to avoid multicollinearity with time-varying coefficients and suggest that the RMB gained influence in exchange rate determination in East Asia, especially since the 2008–09 Global Financial... You do not currently have access to this content.

Electron impact ionisation cross sections of iron hydrogen clusters

We computed electron impact ionisation cross sections (EICSs) of iron hydrogen clusters, FeH n with n = 1,2,...,10, from the ionisation threshold to 10 keV using the Deutsch-Mark (DM) and the binary-encounter-Bethe (BEB) formalisms. The maxima of the cross sections for the iron hydrogen clusters range from 6.13 × 10-16 cm2 at 60 eV to 8.76 × 10-16 cm2 at 76 eV for BEB-AE (BEB method based on quantum-chemical data from all-electron basis sets) calculations, from 4.15 × 10-16 cm2 at 77 eV to 7.61 × 10-16 cm2 at 80 eV for BEB-ECP (BEB method based on quantum-chemical data from effective-core potentials for inner-core electrons) calculations and from 2.49 × 10-16 cm2 at 43.5 eV to 7.04 × 10-16 cm2 at 51 eV for the DM method. Cross sections calculated via the BEB method are substantially higher than the ones obtained via the DM method, up to a factor of about two for FeH and FeH2. The formation of Fe-H bonds depopulates the iron 4s orbital, causing significantly lower cross sections for the small iron hydrides compared to atomic iron. Both the DM and BEB cross sections can be fitted perfectly against a simple expression used in modelling and simulation codes in the framework of nuclear fusion research. The energetics of the iron hydrogen clusters change substantially when exact exchange is present in the density functional, while the cluster geometries do not depend on this choice.

Electron impact ionization cross sections of beryllium-tungsten clusters

We report calculated electron impact ionization cross sections (EICSs) of beryllium-tungsten clusters, Be n W with n = 1,...,12, from the ionization threshold to 10 keV using the Deutsch-Mark (DM) and the binary-encounter-Bethe (BEB) formalisms. The positions of the maxima of DM and BEB cross sections are mostly close to each other. The DM cross sections are more sensitive with respect to the cluster size. For the clusters smaller than Be4W they yield smaller cross sections than BEB and vice versa larger cross sections than BEB for clusters larger than Be6W. The maximum cross section values for the singlet-spin groundstate clusters range from 7.0 × 10-16 cm2 at 28 eV (BeW) to 54.2 × 10-16 cm2 at 43 eV (Be12W) for the DM cross sections and from 13.5 × 10-16 cm2 at 43 eV (BeW) to 38.9 × 10-16 cm2 at 43 eV (Be12W) for the BEB cross sections. Differences of the EICSs in different isomers and between singlet and triplet states are also explored. Both the DM and BEB cross sections could be fitted perfectly to a simple expression used in modeling and simulation codes in the framework of nuclear fusion research.

Calculated electron ionization cross sections of the alkali atoms and the hydrogen spin ionization asymmetry

This paper addresses two aspects of the electron-impact ionization of hydrogen and the alkali atoms Li, Na, K, and Cs. First, we show that the earlier observation that the detailed treatment of the 2 electrons in the final state of the hydrogen ionization process results in a cross section shape that is in excellent agreement with the cross section shape obtained from the semi-empirical Deutsch-Mark (DM) formalism can be extended to the “quasi one-electron” atoms Li, Na, K, and Cs. Second, we discuss specific aspects of the calculated hydrogen ionization spin asymmetry in light of some recent experimental observations.

Electron impact ionization cross sections of beryllium and beryllium hydrides

We report calculated electron impact ionization cross sections (EICSs) for beryllium (Be) and some of its hydrides from the ionization threshold to 1 keV using the Deutsch-Mark (DM) and the Binary-Encounter-Bethe (BEB) formalisms. The positions of the maxima of the DM and BEB cross sections are very close in each case while the DM cross section values at the maxima are consistently higher. Our calculations for Be are in qualitative agreement with results from earlier calculations (convergent close-coupling, R matrix, distorted-wave and plane-wave Born approximation) in the low energy region. For the various beryllium hydrides, we know of no other available data. The maximum cross section values for the various compounds range from 4.0 × 10−16 to 9.4 × 10−16 cm2 at energies of 44 to 56 eV for the DM cross sections and 3.0 × 10−16 to 5.4 × 10−16 cm2 at energies of 40.5 to 60 eV for the BEB cross sections.

Electron ionization of NF3

Experimental and theoretical study on electron ionization of NF3 is carried out in terms of the absolute partial and total ionization cross sections. The measurements are done in crossed electron beam-molecular beam geometry for electron incident energies ranging from 0 to 500eV using a newly built time of flight mass spectrometer with emphasis on complete collection, transmission and detection without mass and energy discrimination, while maintaining reasonable mass resolution. The cross sections are put on the absolute scale using the relative flow technique. The partial cross sections and the thresholds for the formation of NF3+, NF2+, NF+, F+, and N+ are compared with the previous results. Our cross section values for lower mass ions N+, F+, NF+ are found to be considerably higher as compared to previous measurements. We also have calculated the total scattering and total ionization cross sections using the spherical complex optical potential (SCOP) formalism and compared with existing data. While the total scattering calculations agree with the existing experimental results, the total ionization cross sections do not agree well with our experimental data. The present experimental results agree with those estimated using “Deutsch–Mark formulation with new additivity rules”, which were not in agreement with the existing experimental results for the case of NF3.

Exchange rate misalignments: a comparison of China today against recent historical experiences of Japan, Germany, Singapore and Taiwan

The familiar claim of Chinese currency manipulation is generally asserted without reference to empirical evidence. To investigate the legitimacy of the claim, we ask if the undervalued misalignment found in the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) over the past decade has any recent historical precedents. Four cases are examined: the Japanese yen, the Deutschmark (DM), the Singapore dollar and the new Taiwan dollar. Panel-based misalignment estimates of the REER of the four currencies are obtained using quarterly data from the late 1970s to the early 2000s. Our estimates suggest that there are precedents to the recent misalignment of the RMB in terms of magnitude, duration or breadth of currency coverage, and that a net build-up in foreign assets does not necessarily result in currency misalignment. In addition to finding little empirical justification for the claim of Chinese currency manipulation, we note that REER misalignment runs a risk of propagating inflation in the home economy.

Capturing asymmetry in real exchange rate with quantile autoregression

Quantile Autoregression (QAR) is used to explore asymmetries in the adjustment process of pairwise Real Exchange Rate (RER) between the Italian lire, French franc, Deutsch mark and the British pound. Based on the best specification for each quantile we construct predicted conditional density functions, which guided us to identify two sources of asymmetry: (1) dispersion depends on the conditioned value of the RER, i.e. ‘conditional’ heteroskedasticity; (2) the probability of increases and falls also changes according to the conditioned value, i.e. there is higher probability for the RER to appreciate (depreciate) given the currency is depreciated (appreciated). We only verified strong heterokedasticity in relations among the lire, franc and mark, which was resolved by estimating quadratic autoregressive model for some quantiles. Relations involving the pound presented stable but higher dispersion indicating larger probability of wider oscillation.

Electron impact ionization of SiCl2 and SiCl

We measured absolute partial cross sections for the formation of all singly charged positive ions produced by electron impact on SiCl2 and SiCl from threshold to 200 eV using the fast-neutral-beam technique. Some of the cross section curves exhibit an unusual energy dependence with a pronounced low-energy maximum at an energy around 30 eV, which may be indicative of the presence of indirect ionization channels. Dissociative ionization channels are dominant for both species. The experimentally determined total single ionization cross sections for both species agree very well with calculated cross sections using the Deutsch-Mark (DM) formalism. A brief summary of the ionization cross sections determined for all four SiClx (x=1–4) species is given highlighting similarities and differences.

Newly calculated absolute cross-section for the electron-impact ionization of C2H2+

New measurements of the cross-section for electron impact ionization of the molecular ion C2H2+ have been carried out recently. These data differ significantly from earlier data, because cross-sections corresponding to all the possible dissociative ionization processes were determined. The new data in conjunction with the significant discrepancies between the earlier data and the results of various calculations, which disagreed among themselves by a factor of 3, motivated a renewed attempt to apply the semi-classical Deutsch-Mark (DM) formalism to the calculation of the absolute electron-impact ionization cross-section of this molecular ion. A quantum chemical molecular orbital population analysis for both the neutral molecule and the ion revealed that in the case of C2H2+ the singly occupied molecular orbital (i.e. the "missing" electron) is highly localized near the site of a C atom in the molecule. This information is explicitly incorporated in our formalism. The results obtained by taking the ionic character directly into account are in excellent agreement with the recent experimental data.

FX Dynamics, Limited Participation, and the Forward Bias Anomaly

Standard foreign exchange (FX) models with goods price stickiness and instantaneous asset market adjustments imply FX overshooting (Dornbusch, 1976), which can explain the forward bias anomaly. Lyons (2001) explained the anomaly via limited participation of FX speculators due to Sharpe ratios lower than equity market alternatives, which implies FX undershooting to interest differential shocks. I derive the time-series implications of overshooting and undershooting for the joint forward/spot FX dynamics in a vector error correction model. I use generalized impulse response analysis (Pesaran and Shin, 1998) to test those implications. All FX studied (pound, deutsch mark, French franc, yen, and Canadian dollar) have dynamics consistent with undershooting during the period from 1975 to 1998.

Inverse statistics in the foreign exchange market

We investigate intra-day foreign exchange (FX) time series using the inverse statistic analysis developed by Simonsen et al. (Eur. Phys. J. 27 (2002) 583) and Jensen et al. (Physica A 324 (2003) 338). Specifically, we study the time-averaged distributions of waiting times needed to obtain a certain increase (decrease) ρ in the price of an investment. The analysis is performed for the Deutsch Mark (DM) against the US$ for the full year of 1998, but similar results are obtained for the Japanese Yen against the US$. With high statistical significance, the presence of “resonance peaks” in the waiting time distributions is established. Such peaks are a consequence of the trading habits of the market participants as they are not present in the corresponding tick (business) waiting time distributions. Furthermore, a new stylized fact, is observed for the (normalized) waiting time distribution in the form of a power law Pdf. This result is achieved by rescaling of the physical waiting time by the corresponding tick time thereby partially removing scale-dependent features of the market activity.

Inverse Statistics in the Foreign Exchange Market

We investigate intra-day foreign exchange (FX) time series using the inverse statistic analysis developed in [1]. Specifically, we study the time-averaged distributions of waiting times needed to obtain a certain increase (decrease) p in the price of an investment. The analysis is performed for the Deutsch mark (DM) against the $US for the full year of 1998, but similar results are obtained for the Japanese Yen against the $US. With high statistical significance, the presence of resonance in the waiting time distributions is established. Such peaks are a consequence of the trading habits of the markets participants as they are not present in the corresponding tick (business) waiting time distributions. Furthermore, a new stylized fact, is observed for the waiting time distribution in the form of a power law Pdf. This result is achieved by rescaling of the physical waiting time by the corresponding tick time thereby partially removing scale dependent features of the market activity.

Calculated Cross Sections for the Multiple Ionization of Krypton and Chromium Atoms by Electron Impact

The Deutsch-Mark (DM) formalism has been used to calculate cross sections for the single-step formation of Kr m+ (m = 2 - 18) and Cr m+ (m = 2 - 12) ions by electron impact on the neutral atoms. Our calculated cross sections for these multiple ionization processes are compared with available experimental and other theoretical data and systematic trends in the data are highlighted.

Employment news and exchange rates: policy implications for the European Union

The relationship between employment news and exchange rates in five European Union (EU) countries is investigated over the period 1980 to 1996. The empirical evidence reveals that employment news has a negative impact on bilateral exchange rates with respect to the Deutschmark (DM) in all cases as a result of larger actual than expected employment figures.

Forecasting interest rates volatilities by GARCH (1,1) and stochastic volatility models

In this paper, we compare the forecast ability of GARCH(1,1) and stochastic volatility models for interest rates. The stochastic volatility is estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The comparison is based on daily data from 1994 to 1996 for the ten year swap rates for Deutsch Mark, Japanese Yen, and Pound Sterling. Various forecast horizons are considered. It turns out that forecasts based on stochastic volatility models are in most cases superiour to those obtained by GARCH(1,1) models.

A case study on using neural networks to perform technical forecasting of forex

This paper reports empirical evidence that a neural network model is applicable to the prediction of foreign exchange rates. Time series data and technical indicators, such as moving average, are fed to neural networks to capture the underlying “rules” of the movement in currency exchange rates. The exchange rates between American Dollar and five other major currencies, Japanese Yen, Deutsch Mark, British Pound, Swiss Franc and Australian Dollar are forecast by the trained neural networks. The traditional rescaled range analysis is used to test the “efficiency” of each market before using historical data to train the neural networks. The results presented here show that without the use of extensive market data or knowledge, useful prediction can be made and significant paper profits can be achieved for out-of-sample data with simple technical indicators. A further research on exchange rates between Swiss Franc and American Dollar is also conducted. However, the experiments show that with efficient market it is not easy to make profits using technical indicators or time series input neural networks. This article also discusses several issues on the frequency of sampling, choice of network architecture, forecasting periods, and measures for evaluating the model's predictive power. After presenting the experimental results, a discussion on future research concludes the paper.

Nonparametric testing of the high-frequency efficiency of the 1997 Asian foreign exchange markets

Sherry’s nonparametric pattern tests for neural information processing are used to ascertain if the Asian foreign exchange (FX) rates followed random walks [Sherry, C.J., 1992. The Mathematics of Technical Analysis: Applying Statistics to Trading Stocks, Options and Futuresm Probus, Chicago]. The stationarity and serial independence of the price changes are tested on minute-by-minute data for nine Asian currencies from 1 January 1997 to 30 December 1997. The efficiency of these FX markets before and after the Asian currency ‘regime discontinuity’ are compared. The Thai baht (THB), Malaysian ringgit (MYR), Indonesian rupiah (IDR) and Singapore dollar (SGD) exhibited non-stationary behavior during the entire year, and gave evidence of a trading regime break, while the Phillipines’ peso (PHP), Taiwan dollar (TWD), Japanese yen (JYP) and German deutschmark (DEM) remained stationary, with the US dollar (USD) as numeraire. However, each half-year regime showed stationarity, indicating stable and nonchaotic trading regimes for all currencies, despite their high volatilities, except for the MYR, which exhibited non-stationarity in the second half of 1997. The Thai baht traded nonstationarily in the first half of 1997, but stationarily in the second half. while the TWD reversed that trading pattern. Based on Sherry’s four tests for serial independence, none of the currencies exhibited complete independence. Thus no Asian currency market—including the JYP—exhibited complete efficiency in 1997, in particular when compared with the highly efficient DEM. Remarkably, the PHP remained as efficient as the JYP throughout 1997.

Economic evaluation of the treatment of chronic wounds: hydroactive wound dressings in combination with enzymatic ointment versus gauze dressings in patients with pressure ulcer and venous leg ulcer in Germany.

The treatment costs for pressure ulcers and venous leg ulcers were estimated based on the hospital administrator's perspective in Germany. A spreadsheet model using input data from various hospitals in Germany was developed. Five currently used treatment strategies were analysed: gauze, impregnated gauze, calcium alginate and hydroactive wound dressing with enzymatic ointment. All cases used for and in the analysis were treated in the inpatient setting (4 hospitals and 120 patients were included). The outcome distributions were calculated using the Monte Carlo method. For the whole treatment process, the attributable costs for the hospital were calculated for different cases (severity) and all treatment strategies (1997 values). The costs for treatment with gauze were the highest, whereas the costs for treatment with hydroactive wound dressings and enzymatic ointment were the lowest. The relation between personnel and material costs for gauze is approximately 95 to 5% and for hydroactive wound dressings 67 to 33%, respectively. The cost savings per case were between 1196 deutschmark (DM) and DM9826 using hydroactive wound dressings instead of gauze dressings (depending on the severity of the pressure ulcer), and between DM135 and DM677 for venous leg ulcers. The results were robust and did not change in any performed sensitivity analysis (parameter: 'personnel costs per minute', 'time required for changing a wound dressing', 'total number of wound dressing changes'). Despite the higher material costs of the hydroactive wound dressings in combination with enzymatic wound cleaning compared with other wound dressings, they should be recommended for the treatment of pressure ulcers and venous leg ulcers. This therapy alternative brings about significant reductions in total costs for hospitals because of significant reductions in personnel costs and the duration of treatment.

Adaptive Rival Penalized Competitive Learning and Combined Linear Predictor Model for Financial Forecast and Investment

We propose a prediction model called Rival Penalized Competitive Learning (RPCL) and Combined Linear Predictor method (CLP), which involves a set of local linear predictors such that a prediction is made by the combination of some activated predictors through a gating network (Xu et al., 1994). Furthermore, we present its improved variant named Adaptive RPCL-CLP that includes an adaptive learning mechanism as well as a data pre-and-post processing scheme. We compare them with some existing models by demonstrating their performance on two real-world financial time series--a China stock price and an exchange-rate series of US Dollar (USD) versus Deutschmark (DEM). Experiments have shown that Adaptive RPCL-CLP not only outperforms the other approaches with the smallest prediction error and training costs, but also brings in considerable high profits in the trading simulation of foreign exchange market.