Determinants Of Under-5 Mortality Research Articles

Trend Analysis and Determinants of under-5 Mortality in Nigeria: A Machine Learning Approach

The study aimed to examine the trend of the under-five mortality rate in Nigeria from 2003 to 2018 and the determinants of under-five mortality using the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) data. The data for the study was the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey data conducted in 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018. These four surveys were used to study under-five mortality trends within the study period, while machine learning was applied only to the 2018 dataset being the latest in Nigeria. The data were partitioned into training and testing sets. 30% of the dataset was randomly selected for testing, while 70% was used in training the model. Before applying logistic regression and neural networks, the essential under-five mortality variables were first selected using a random forest classifier.
 The trend showed that the mortality rates were 200.72, 156.86, 128.05, and 132.02 in 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018 respectively, per 1,000 live births. This result means that one in every five children died before their fifth birthday in 2003, one in six in 2008, one in eight in 2013, and one in seven in 2018. The forecast result indicated that the under-five mortality rate would likely be 102.17 in 2023. The variable importance result of the random forest showed that breastfeeding (when the child was put to the breast after birth) had the highest contribution to under-five mortality. The breakdown of breastfeeding from the logistic regression result showed that delaying the breastfeeding of a child to 6-23 hours in comparison with 0-5 hours after birth increases by 1.4 fold the likelihood of child death. The accuracy of logistic regression (LR) on the test set was 60%, and that of deep neural network (DNN) was 74%, recall (sensitivity) for LR was 63%, and DNN was 75%), Precision (LR=97%, DNN=95), F1 score (LR=76%, DNN=84%) and area under the curve (AUC) (LR=79%, DNN=77%).
 Both logistic regression and deep neural network models performed very well in discriminative ability and accuracy. The deep neural network had a better performance than the logistic regression.

Verbal/social autopsy analysis of causes and determinants of under-5 mortality in Tanzania from 2010 to 2016.

BackgroundTanzania has decreased its child mortality rate by more than 70 percent in the last three decades and is striving to develop a nationally-representative sample registration system with verbal autopsy to help focus health policies and programs toward further reduction. As an interim measure, a verbal and social autopsy study was conducted to provide vital information on the causes and social determinants of neonatal and child deaths.MethodsCauses of neonatal and 1-59 month-old deaths identified by the 2015-16 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey were assessed using the expert algorithm verbal autopsy method. The social autopsy examined prevalence of key household, community and health system indicators of preventive and curative care provided along the continuum of care and Pathway to Survival models. Careseeking for neonates and 1-59 month-olds was compared, and tests of associations of age and cause of death to careseeking indicators and place of death were conducted.ResultsThe most common causes of death of 228 neonates and 351 1-59 month-olds, respectively, were severe infection, intrapartum related events and preterm delivery, and pneumonia, diarrhea and malaria. Coverage of early initiation of breastfeeding (24%), hygienic cord care (29%), and full immunization of 12-59 month-olds (33%) was problematic. Most (88.8%) neonates died in the first week, including 44.3% in their birth facility before leaving. Formal care was sought for just 41.9% of newborns whose illness started at home and was delayed by 5.3 days for 1-59 month-olds who sought informal care. Care was less likely to be sought for the youngest neonates and infants and severely ill children. Although 70.3% of 233 under-5 year-olds were moderately or severely ill on discharge from their first provider, only 29.0%-31.2% were referred.ConclusionsThe study highlights needed actions to complete Tanzania’s child survival agenda. Low levels of some preventive interventions need to be addressed. The high rate of facility births and neonatal deaths requires strengthening of institutionally-based interventions targeting maternal labor and delivery complications and neonatal causes of death. Scale-up of Integrated Community Case Management should be considered to strengthen careseeking for the youngest newborns, infants and severely ill children and referral practices at first level facilities.

Decomposing the rural-urban gap in the factors of under-five mortality in sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from 35 countries

BackgroundUnderstanding urban-rural gap in childhood survival is essential for health care interventions and to explain disparities in the determinants of Under-5 mortality. There is dearth of information about the factors explaining differentials in urban-rural Under-5 mortality especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In this study, we sought to quantify the contributions of bio-demographic, socioeconomic and proximate factors in explaining the urban-rural gap in Under-5 mortality in SSA.MethodsThis study utilized secondary data from Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) in 35 sub-Saharan countries conducted between 2006 and 2016. Child (aged 0 and 59 months) death was the outcome variable in this study. Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition was used to decipher urban-rural gap in the factors of Under-5 mortality.ResultsSignificant urban-rural differentials were observed in Under-5 mortality across bio-demographic, socioeconomic and proximate factors. In the decomposition model, about 44.27% of urban group and 74.71% of rural group had Under-5 mortality in sub-Saharan countries. Maternal age, education, use of newspaper, TV, wealth index, total children ever born, size of baby and age at first birth contributed towards explaining urban-rural gap inUnder-5 mortality.ConclusionThese findings could be contributory to health care system improvement and socioeconomic developmental plans to address under-5 mortality in SSA. Strengthening maternal and child health (MCH) programmes, specifically in rural areas and improving health care services would help to ensure overall child survival.

Under five mortality patterns and associated maternal risk factors in sub-Saharan Africa: A multi-country analysis.

BackgroundUnder-5 mortality rate in the sub-Saharan region has remained unabated. Worse still, information on the regional trend and associated determinants are not readily available. Knowledge of the trend and determinants of under-5 mortality are essential for effective design of intervention programmes that will enhance their survival. We aimed to examine the mortality patterns in under-5 children and maternal factors associated with under-5 deaths.MethodsDemographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from five sub-Sahara Africa countries; Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali, Niger and Zimbabwe were used in this study. The sample size consisted of 68,085 women aged 15–49 years with at least one history of childbirth. The outcome variable was under-five mortality rate. Relevant information on maternal factors were extracted for analysis. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to model maternal factors associated with under-five mortality.ResultsThe current under-5 mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) was; 133 in Republic of Chad, 104 in Democratic Republic of Congo, 95 in Mali, 127 in Niger, and 69 in Zimbabwe. Several maternal and child level factors were found to be significantly associated with under-five mortality. Lack of spousal support (not currently married) resulted to increase in under-five mortality (Chad- Hazard Ratio [HR] = 1.11, 95%CI = 0.97–1.25; DR Congo- HR = 1.24, 95%CI = 1.11–1.40; Mali- HR = 2.43, 95%CI = 1.63–3.64; Niger- HR = 1.59, 95%CI = 1.24–2.03; Zimbabwe- HR = 1.33, 95%CI = 1.06–1.67). Delivery by caesarean section was significantly associated with under-five mortality (Chad- HR = 1.32, 95%CI = 1.00–1.77; DR Congo- HR = 1.20, 95%CI = 1.01–1.43; Mali- HR = 1.42, 95%CI = 1.08–1.85; Niger- HR = 1.43, 95%CI = 1.06–1.92; Zimbabwe- HR = 1.49, 95%CI = 1.03–2.15).ConclusionDespite concerted effort by government and several stakeholders in health to improve childhood survival, the rate of under-5 mortality is still high. Our findings provided evidence on the contribution of maternal age, place of residence, household wealth index, level of education, employment, marital status, religious background, birth type, birth order and interval, sex and size of child, place and mode of delivery, to Under-5 mortality rate in SSA. The position of prominent risk factors for under-five mortality should be addressed through effective design of timely and efficient intervention aimed at reducing childhood mortality.

Determinants of under-5 mortality in Burkina Faso.

The aim of this article is to determine the factors associated with under-5 mortality and their evolution from 1993 to 2010 and to analyse the contributors of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality of children under-5 years during the same period. The data used in this study were derived from the four rounds of Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) conducted in Burkina Faso in 1993, 1998 and 2010. Concentration measurement, logistics regression and Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method were used to analyse data. Multivariate analysis revealed that being the first child (odds ratio = 1.8 for 1993, 1.7 for 1998, 1.2 for 2003 and 1.3 for 2010) or a twin (odds ratio = 4.5 for 1993, 2.8 for 1998, 2.7 for 2003 and 4.8 for 2010) were also significantly associated with the probability of dying. The variable (parity) was the main contributor to the part of the inequality due to differences in group characteristics and that would be due to the fact that women from poor households have greater parity compared to those from rich households. For a reduction in mortality and inequalities related to mortality, the implementation of actions in favour of poor households and promotion of family planning programmes for birth spacing will be required.

A comprehensive analysis on child mortality and its determinants in Bangladesh using frailty models

BackgroundBangladesh has experienced a significant reduction of child mortality over the past decades which helped achieve the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target. But the mortality among under-5 aged children is still relatively high and it needs a substantial effort to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target and decelerate the current rate of under-5 mortality. At this stage, it is hence important to explore the trend and determinants of under-5 mortality in order to reduce the vulnerability of child’s survival. The aim of this study is to explore the trends and identify the factors associated with mortality in children aged less than 5 years in Bangladesh.MethodsData from three repeatedly cross-sectional Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHSs) for the year 2007, 2011 and 2014 were used. A stratified two-stage sampling method was used to collect information on child and maternal health in these surveys. Cox’s proportional hazards models with community and mother level random effects (or frailty models) were fitted to identify the associated factors with under-five mortality.ResultsOur study reveals that urban-rural disparity in child mortality has decreased over the time. The frailty models revealed that the combined effect of birth order and preceding birth interval length, sex of the child, maternal age at birth, mother’s working status, parental education were the important determinants associated with risk of child mortality. The risk of mortality also varied across divisions with Sylhet division being the most vulnerable one. Moreover, significant and sizable frailty effects were found which indicates that the estimations of the unmeasured and unobserved mother and community level factors on the risk of death were substantively important.ConclusionOur study suggests that community-based educational programs and public health interventions focused on birth spacing may turn out to be the most effective. Moreover, unobserved community and familial effects need to be considered along with significant programmable determinants while planning for the child survival program.

Determinants of under-5 mortality among the poor and the rich: a cross-national analysis of 43 developing countries

Under-5 mortality is unacceptably high in many countries, the burden of which is mainly borne by the poor. Whereas country characteristics are known to influence under-5 mortality, it is unknown whether these have a different impact on the poor and the rich. We aimed to describe how the association between under-5 mortality and socioeconomic, political, and health care factors varies in strength between richer and poorer children. Cross-national analysis of 43 developing countries using wealth-group specific under-5 mortality rates as outcome. Relative effects were estimated using OLS regression; differences in associations between wealth groups were tested. Higher national incomes were associated with lower under-5 mortality rates. This association was significantly weaker for the poor compared with the rich (P = 0.014). Ethnic fragmentation was significantly more strongly associated with higher under-5 mortality among the poor compared with the rich (P = 0.027). The association between public spending on health and under-5 mortality was stronger for the poor (P = 0.0001). Skilled delivery attendance and immunization coverage among the poor were significantly more strongly related to public spending on health than such health care use among the rich (P = 0.0001 and P = 0.045, respectively). No differentials in the relative effect of female literacy, democracy, and state strength were observed. Our results suggest that economic growth is associated with widening poor-rich disparities in under-5 mortality. Increased public spending on health might partly remedy this effect.