Determinants Of Sovereign Credit Ratings Research Articles

Understanding sovereign credit ratings: Text-based evidence from the credit rating reports

We apply a novel approach to identifying the qualitative judgment of the rating committee in sovereign credit ratings by extending the traditional regression with new measures – sentiment and subjectivity scores – obtained by textual sentiment analysis methods. Using an ordered logit with random effects for 98 countries from 1995 to 2018, we find evidence that the subjectivity score provides additional information not captured by previously identified determinants of sovereign credit ratings, even after controlling for political risk, institutional strength, and potential bias. The results from the bivariate and multivariate analysis confirm differences in textual sentiment and subjectivity between emerging markets and advanced economies, as well as before and after the 2008 global financial crisis.

Political institutions, economic uncertainty and sovereign credit ratings

Sovereign credit rating is an important factor for countries to access funds in the international bond market. First, we jointly analyzed political institutions and uncertainty as determinants of sovereign credit ratings; and second, we test whether the interaction between them matters. Using a sample of 71 countries from 2003 to 2020 for the major agencies Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, and Fitch, we find that political institutions have a positive effect, whereas uncertainty has a negative effect, and their interaction is systematically negative. These results indicate that lower uncertainty could strengthen the positive effect of political institutions on sovereign credit ratings.

DETERMINANTS OF SOVEREIGN CREDIT RATINGS: THE CASE OF INDONESIA AND PEER GROUP COUNTRIES

This paper aims to identify the predominant determinants of sovereign credit ratings in Indonesia and its peer countries from 2004 to 2019 by considering GDP per capita, official reserve, government debt, Current Account Balance, Credit Default Swap (CDS), and Sovereign Credit Rating used by the three major rating agencies. CDS is considered a newly proposed variable with predicting capacity as a measure of default. Sovereign credit ratings, which are forward-looking measures of the probability of default provided by rating agencies, are being criticized for their predictive capacity with the incorporation of historical data and information in their assessment. Therefore, this study also explores the possible effect of a newly proposed variable with predicting capacity, the CDS, as a pure measure of default. The correlations among the variables were analyzed with Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) as all variables were treated as endogenous and interdependent. The empirical results demonstrate that among the variables tested, GDP Per Capita, Government Debt, and CDS, as a newly proposed variable, have statistically stronger relationships with the sovereign credit rating. The authority that manages the engagement with rating agencies is expected to develop a more focused strategy when taking this aspect into account. Keywords: Financial Market, Rating Agencies, Risk, Panel VAR, Sovereign Rating DOI： https://doi.org/10.35741/issn.0258-2724.58.1.78

Determinants of credit ratings: evidence from panel discrete model

This study aims to explore how changes in explanatory variables may affect the probability of sovereign credit ratings assigned by Fitch, which is assumed to be a binary choice variable. For this purpose annual data of selected developed and developing countries for the period 2000-2016 have been used. All the data have been collected from World Bank database and Fitch website. In the empirical analysis the binary logit model has been applied. It can be concluded that the determinants of sovereign credit ratings can help sovereigns to better understand the drivers of their credit rating.

Sovereign credit ratings: Discovering unorthodox factors and variables

The presence of different rating agencies and nuanced viewpoints on the determinants of sovereign credit ratings has led to convoluted and contested narratives; hence a need to arrive at common ground on both the significant and prioritised factors important in sovereign rating assessments. Furthermore, much research has focused on a regression analysis of variables which were determined as important to sovereign ratings on an a priori theoretical basis, while excluding a factor analysis which integrates variables within a multifaceted framework. This paper argues that the variables used in existing research are subject to a priori theoretical selection rather than being selected empirically. There has also been an insufficient utilisation of rating agencies' methodology papers in assisting with the selection of variables, and a lack of analysis of the rating agencies' application of factors. Hence, this paper unearths both new factors and variables relevant to assessing sovereign ratings. The findings suggest that there needs to be a broadened understanding of indicators used to analyse and assign sovereign ratings, and a prioritisation of analysed aspects following the inclusion of unorthodox factors and variables.

The geographical and income differences in the determinants of African sovereign credit ratings

PurposeThe importance of obtaining a sovereign credit rating from an agency is still underrated in Africa. Literature on the determinants of sovereign credit ratings in Africa is scarce. The purpose of this research is to determine what the determinants are for sovereign credit ratings in Africa and whether these determinants differ between regions and income groups.Design/methodology/approachA sample of 19 African countries' determinants of sovereign credit ratings are compared between 2007 and 2014 using a panel-ordered probit approach.FindingsThe findings indicated that the determinants of sovereign credit ratings differ between African regions and income groups. The developmental indicators were the most significant determinants across all income groups and regions. The results affirm that the identified determinants in the literature are not as applicable to African sovereigns, and that developmental variables and different income groups and regions are important determinants to consider for sovereign credit ratings in Africa.Originality/valueThe results affirm that the identified determinants in the literature are not as applicable to African sovereigns, and that developmental variables and different income groups and regions are important determinants to consider for sovereign credit ratings in Africa. Rating agencies follow the same rating assignment process for developed and developing countries, which means investors will have to supplement the allocated credit rating with additional information. Africa can attract more investment if African countries obtain formal, accurate sovereign credit ratings, which take the characteristics of the continent into consideration.

Understanding Sovereign Credit Ratings: Text-Based Evidence From the Credit Rating Reports

In this paper we apply a novel approach to identifying the qualitative judgement of the rating committee in sovereign credit ratings. We extend the traditional regression with new measures - sentiment and subjectivity scores - obtained by textual sentiment analysis methods. By using an ordered logit with random effects for 98 countries in the period from 1996 to 2017, we find evidence that the subjectivity score provides additional information not captured by previously identified determinants of sovereign credit ratings, even after controlling for political risk, institutional strength and potential bias. The results from the bivariate and multivariate analysis confirm differences in textual sentiment between emerging markets and advanced economies, as well as before and after the 2008 global financial crisis.

Determinants of Sovereign Credit Ratings in Emerging Markets

This study critically investigates the determinants of sovereign credit ratings in emerging markets, during 2001 to 2015. This was conducted in 20 emerging markets, using S&P and Moody ratings. Linear framework econometric approach with the use of pooled Ordinary Least Square regression method was adopted in the study. The explanatory power of the estimated models has a good performance across both rating agencies. The study reveals the importance of five macroeconomic variables in determining the sovereign credit rating of emerging markets. These variables are: gross domestic product per capital, inflation, government debt, reserves, and external debt. Also, world governance indicators, a proxy for qualitative/political variables, were found to be an essential determinant of rating.

The Determinants of Sovereign Credit Ratings: Indonesia and Its Neighborhood Countries 1998-2016

The aim of this research is to study the determinants of sovereign credit ratings of Indonesia andits neighborhood countries in the period of 1998-2016. Using secondary data and analyzed usingordered probit, it is found that every credit rating agency has its own variables influencing to itspublished credit ratings.In general, for Indonesia and its neighborhood countries, the variables withsignificant and positive relationship are fiscal balance and current account deficit to GDP, freedomindex, and GDP per capita; while the variables with significant and negative relationship are externaldebt to GNI and real exchange rate. Gross domestic savings to GDP influences credit ratings inboth ways. Interestingly, inflation does not affect the credit ratings. Indonesia and neighborhoodgovernments could use this information to manage their macroeconomic indicators in order to getfavorable ratings from credit rating agencies.

Does the International Tourism Industry Relax Sovereign Credit Ratings: The Case of Countries Most Reliant on Tourism

Abstract Sustainable tourism plays a dominant role in the economic well-being of some of the world’s countries, especially small ones. Tourism earnings account for a significant proportion of their GDP, and they have an overwhelming reliance on tourism as a source of service exports. The general trends in tourism earnings and volatilities in country risk ratings often go hand in hand, especially for small touristic countries in that region. The research presented in this paper provides a comparative assessment of the international country risk ratings and highlights the importance of their tourism earnings and tourism export. This study employs the ordered response and Poisson count panel data model for a sample of twenty-two countries most reliant on tourism, including Mediterranean countries. The aim of this study is to investigate whether the tourism determinants of sovereign credit ratings for those countries vary between different rating agencies (Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch’s). The key finding is that an increase in tourism earnings as a proportion of GDP and as the main export share in the total country export impairs the sovereign risk rating and turns out to be robust across the different methodologies.

Sovereign credit rating determinants under financial crises

This paper empirically examines the determinants of sovereign credit ratings using panel data on a sample of 86 countries for 1993–2013. It further investigates whether the countries' average credit rating differs by region and for crisis and noncrisis periods, and how the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the Asian crisis, and the 2008 international financial crisis affected the average rating of each region. The estimation results reveal that macroeconomic, external, government, and qualitative factors importantly affect sovereign credit ratings, and that average ratings differ across all geographical regions except for North America and the Eurozone. While the recent crisis reduced the average rating across all regions, the dot-com bubble burst had no effect, the Asian crisis affected only the average rating of Asian countries, and the downgrade resulting from the 2008 crisis was larger in the Eurozone.

Sovereign Credit Rating Determinants Under Financial Crises

This paper empirically examines the determinants of sovereign credit ratings using panel data of a sample of 86 countries for 1993-2013. It further investigates whether the countries’ average credit rating differs for crisis and non-crisis periods, as well as for the different regions where the countries belong. At last, it examines how the dot-com bubble burst, the Asian crisis and the recent international financial crisis have affected the average rating of each region. The estimation results reveal that a set of macroeconomic, external, government and qualitative factors play an important role on sovereign credit ratings. Moreover, the results provide evidence of differences in the average rating for all geographical regions, except for North America and the Euro Zone. The paper suggests that while the recent international financial crisis had a negative effect on the average rating across all regions, the dot-com bubble burst had no effect on the rating of these regions and the Asian crisis only affected the average rating of Asian countries. Finally, the paper provides evidence that the downgrade on the average rating resulting from the international financial crisis had greater magnitude in the Euro Zone.

Analysis of Moody's Sovereign Credit Ratings: Criticisms Towards Rating Agencies Are Still Valid?

With the increasing international financial and economic integration, sovereign credit ratings have become one of the most important elements in directing global capital flows. Effects of credit rating agencies on both sovereign economies and the global economy have increased. On the other hand, CRAs have been heavily criticized for their poor performance in the crises of 1990s and the recent global financial crisis that started in 2008. The aim of this study is to examine the systematic and consistency of sovereign credit ratings given by CRAs and to identify the determinants of sovereign credit ratings. As a result of panel data analysis conducted by reverse engineering methodology within this context, GDP per capita, governance quality, current account balance, growth performance and growth expectations, being an industrialized country and having a reserve currency were identified as factors affecting sovereign credit rating positively. On the other hand; exchange rate volatility, interest payments, debt stock and default occurrences were the factors effecting credit ratings negatively. The findings of the analyses support the critiques against CRAs about being unable to foresee the economic crises and about deepening the existing crises by making sudden rating cuts.

THE DETERMINANTS OF SOVEREIGN CREDIT RATINGS: A NEW EMPIRICAL APPROACH

The purpose of this paper is to extend the literature on the determinants of sovereign credit ratings by, firstly, showing empirically that there is a probable bias in the results obtained by previous studies and, secondly, to combine a General-to-Specific (GETS) model selection strategy with Dynamic Panel Data estimation techniques to resolve these biases. The results are encouraging: the preferred model is not only statistically adequate, but also economically significant and consistent with the categories of variables deemed to be important by the agencies who construct sovereign credit ratings.

Institutional Environment and Sovereign Credit Ratings

We use a sample of 86 counties to examine the cross-sectional determinants of sovereign credit ratings. We find that the quality of a country's legal and political institutions plays a vital role in determining these ratings. A one-standard-deviation increase in our legal environment index results in an average credit rating increase of 0.466 standard deviations, even when we control for obvious factors such as GDP per capita, inflation, foreign debt per GDP, previous defaults, and general development. Although part of this effect is due to the legal environment's endogeneity, its relative importance is robust to endogeneity concerns.

Understanding the determinants of sovereign debt ratings: Evidence for the two leading agencies

An analysis of the possible determinants of sovereign credit ratings assigned by the two leading credit rating agencies, Moody's and Standard and Poor's, is conducted in this paper by using linear, logistic, and exponential transformations of the rating scales. Of the large number of variables that can be used, the set of explanatory variables selected in this study is significant in explaining the credit ratings. Namely, six variables appear to be the most relevant to determining a country's credit rating: GDP per capita, external debt, level of economic development, default history, real growth rate, and inflation rate.

Understanding the Determinants of Government Debt Ratings: Evidence for the Two Leading Agencies

I conduct an analysis of the possible determinants of sovereign credit ratings assigned by the two leading credit rating agencies, Moody's and Standard and Poor's, by using both a linear and a logistic transformation of the rating scales. Of the large number of variables that can be used, the set of explanatory variables selected in this study is significant in explaining the credit ratings. Namely, six variables appear to be the most relevant to determine a country's credit rating: GDP per capita, external debt, level of economic development, default history, real growth rate and inflation rate.