Determinants Of Adaptive Capacity Research Articles

Assessing leverage points for strengthening adaptive capacity in a Global South food system: A psychometric approach

Despite the burgeoning literature on adaptive capacity, there is a lack of psychometric approaches for assessing the determinants of adaptive capacity, particularly in food systems in the Global South. The study addressed this knowledge gap by investigating four determinants, previously identified as leverage points, for strengthening adaptive capacity: access to finance, access to and use of information and knowledge, social learning, and gender equality. Drawing on a survey (n = 1,271) of food system actors in Kisumu County, Kenya, we conducted a confirmatory factor analysis, which yielded factors of moderate-high internal validity and reliability. We then used structural equation modelling to examine the causal effect of food system actors’ attitudes and beliefs towards the four leverage points with regards to their perceived adaptive capacity. Two factors, access to finance and social learning, were significant positive predictors of adaptive capacity. A third leverage point factor, gender equality, contributed to the respondents’ perceived adaptive capacity through the mediating factor of assets. The results reveal entry points for strategic adaptation planning and raise complexities related to gender norms and values. We discuss the implications of these findings for adaptive capacity and transformative adaptation theory in food systems in the Global South.

Modelling Maize Yield Vulnerability to Climate Variability

The effect of climate variability on maize yield has been the subject of numerous studies globally, but very few of these studies have focused on the local scale in Africa. As a result, the focus of this work is on creating a vulnerability index that combines sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity to assess the degree of vulnerability of Maize yield to climate variability in the south-south region of Nigeria in West Africa. The ratio between the actual maize yield and the projected yield was used to calculate yield sensitivity. Adaptive capacity examines some of the socioeconomic and demographic factors in the study area. A fuzzy function was employed to derive the aggregation of the determinants of Adaptive Capacity (adult literacy, poverty prevalence, accessibility to the settlements of people, and dependency ratio). Exposure was expressed as the average of the long-term and short-term climatic factors (Rainfall and Temperature). Yield sensitivity ranges between 0.471 to 0.698 with moderate to high sensitivity observed in almost the entire growing region. Exposure values indicate a very high level of climate variability with the North of Edo to the Southeastern and Southwestern parts of the State being more exposed. Adaptive capacity is highly variable ranging from 0.174 to 1. The vulnerability index ranges from 0.393 to 0.698. The result indicates a very high to extremely high vulnerability on maize yield across the majority of growing regions in the south-south, which is an indication of a probable yield drop due to changing climate. This model provides a structure for decision-making and planning on climate variability mitigation needs assessment.

Modelling Maize Yield Vulnerability to Climate Variability

The effect of climate variability on maize yield has been the subject of numerous studies globally, but very few of these studies have focused on the local scale in Africa. As a result, the focus of this work is on creating a vulnerability index that combines sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity to assess the degree of vulnerability of Maize yield to climate variability in the south-south region of Nigeria in West Africa. The ratio between the actual maize yield and the projected yield was used to calculate yield sensitivity. Adaptive capacity examines some of the socioeconomic and demographic factors in the study area. A fuzzy function was employed to derive the aggregation of the determinants of Adaptive Capacity (adult literacy, poverty prevalence, accessibility to the settlements of people, and dependency ratio). Exposure was expressed as the average of the long-term and short-term climatic factors (Rainfall and Temperature). Yield sensitivity ranges between 0.471 to 0.698 with moderate to high sensitivity observed in almost the entire growing region. Exposure values indicate a very high level of climate variability with the North of Edo to the Southeastern and Southwestern parts of the State being more exposed. Adaptive capacity is highly variable ranging from 0.174 to 1. The vulnerability index ranges from 0.393 to 0.698. The result indicates a very high to extremely high vulnerability on maize yield across the majority of growing regions in the south-south, which is an indication of a probable yield drop due to changing climate. This model provides a structure for decision-making and planning on climate variability mitigation needs assessment.

Adaptive capacity of farming systems to climate change in Iran: Application of composite index approach

CONTEXTClimate change is expected to adversely affect agricultural production, particularly in Iran where the agricultural sector forms the backbone of the economy. This is true for the agriculture sector of the southwest region of Iran which is largely rain-fed and dominated by smallholder farmers with minimal livelihood alternatives. Although several studies have been conducted on climate change, little has been done on the adaptive capacity of farmers within farming systems, especially in Iran. OBJECTIVEThe main objective of this study was to evaluate the adaptive capacity of four common farming systems (i.e., family farming system, cooperative farming system, commercialized farming system, and agro-enterprise farming system) in Fars province, southwestern Iran. METHODSA seven-step approach was used to normalize, weigh, and aggregate 102 individual indicators within a composite adaptive capacity index that is dimensionless, ranging from 0 to 1, and 1 is the optimal value. The required data were collected using a cross-sectional survey from 1472 farmers within the four mentioned farming systems. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSThe results showed that the highest value was recorded by agro-enterprise for knowledge, perception and awareness, transport and physical accessibility, and institution and economic resources. Agro-enterprise scored higher in terms of awareness and action, which shows that these farming systems have a higher capacity for adaptation to the threat posed by climate diversity. Farmers in this farming system benefit from high formal education, high perceptions about the threat and risk of climate change, the occurrence of climatic events, causes for the change in climatic parameters, and awareness of climate change impacts. SIGNIFICANCEThis paper recommends resilience-building interventions in the study area, which target individuals with low adaptive capacities, especially farmers. The results can also assist agricultural policymakers to recognize which components and determinants of adaptive capacity should be prioritized to mitigate the threat of climate change to farming systems.

Integrating Social Learning, Adaptive Capacity and Climate Adaptation for Regional Scale Analysis: A Conceptual Framework.

The impact of climate-related changes on northern Canada's renewable resource sectors makes bolstering adaptive capacity an urgent imperative throughout the region. Although social learning is a key ingredient of adaptive capacity, our understanding of the relationships among social learning, adaptive capacity, and climate change adaptation is limited. Building on previous conceptual and empirical studies, this paper develops a framework that clarifies the interactions among social learning, adaptive capacity and climate change adaptation pertinent to a regional scale of analysis. The framework is multi-layered and consists of different levels of governing variables, units of analysis, learning outcomes and climate change adaptations. It is also integrative in that it encompasses social learning motivations, context and process factors, and outcomes, along with key determinants of adaptive capacity. A post hoc assessment of two climate change disturbances in northern boreal resource systems reveals the applicability of the framework to a regional scale analysis.

The Role of Agricultural Social Enterprise to Smallholder Farmers’ Adaptive Capacity to Climatic Stresses in Tanzania

This paper intended to ascertain the implications of agricultural social enterprise on the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers to climatic stresses in the Kilolo District, Tanzania. The study used a sample of 90 households. Household questionnaires, focus group discussions (FGD), and key informant interviews were used to collect primary data for this study. Secondary data were collected through a review of literature relevant to this study. The content analysis was used to analyse qualitative data, whereas quantitative data were subjected to Statistical Product and Service Solution (SPSS) version 20 for analysis. Microsoft Excel 2007 was used to analyse rainfall and temperature data trends of the study area. Findings revealed that the agricultural social enterprise found in the study area (i.e. One Acre Fund-OAF) enhanced the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers since the services it provided to its clients positively influenced the functioning of the determinants of adaptive capacity and consequently led to the increase of average maize production per acre by 54.5%. This study concludes that agricultural social enterprises such as OAF have the potential to enhance smallholder farmers’ adaptive capacity to climatic stresses, however other stakeholders should come together to support this cause.
 Keywords Climatic stresses; Adaptive capacity; Social enterprises; Social entrepreneurship

Livelihood profiles and adaptive capacity to manage food insecurity in pastoral communities in the central cattle corridor of Uganda

Adaptive capacity is the capabilities, resources and institutions of a country or region to implement effective adaptation measures. This article aims to highlight pastoral communities’ differential adaptive capacity to buffer household food insecurity. We use mixed methods including case households and key informants to provide qualitative data on determinants of adaptive capacity. Subsequently cluster analysis is applied to combine survey data from respondent households on the basis of the livelihood capitals. Three distinct, heterogeneous livelihood profiles are identified. The Minimally-endowed face uncertain access to livelihood capitals; Large-herd Landlords are endowed with physical and financial capital – ownership of land and large numbers of livestock; while the Land-rich are endowed with natural capital – access to large sizes of land. This denotes different types of adaptive capacity and underscores the need for agricultural extension, technology transfer and other interventions to be differentiated based on the variance in adaptive capacity and challenges of the existing heterogeneous livelihood clusters. We argue that if such differences are not first identified, development strategies including those of agricultural extension could fail in their attempts to ensure sustainable household food security. Rather than being a homogenous community, pastoralists in the central cattle corridor of Uganda belong to three heterogeneous livelihood profile clusters. Each cluster is differentially endowed with livelihood capitals which denote different types of adaptive capacity. As an empirical study done at household level, this work contributes insights that can be considered in designing and undertaking studies of other rural communities, prior to planning and execution of interventions.

Evaluating the vulnerability of farming communities to winter storms in Iowa, US

Winter storms have been reported as the second-most frequent catastrophe in the Midwest of the United States and can create non-negligible impacts on farming communities that highly rely on climatic-sensitive resources and activities. However, few studies have attempted to assess the vulnerability to winter storms in rural contexts. Focusing on all counties in Iowa, US, as the study area, this research aimed to evaluate the vulnerability of farming communities to winter storms and its major determinants. It first identified both climatic and non-climatic indicators for quantifying winter storm exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity by reviewing previous related studies and examining qualitative interview results. Then, spatial analysis tools were used to quantify and aggregate several indicators, such as winter temperature variation, natural shelter, energy capacity, and facility density. Next, factor analysis was employed to identify latent variables and estimate the index score for adaptive capacity. Finally, the vulnerability of Iowa counties to winter storms was calculated and mapped. The results showed that the determinants of adaptive capacity to winter storms in Iowa could be explained as farming economic status, environmental institutional capital, and innovative capital. Overall, high vulnerability was found in Southeast Iowa due to its low farming economic status and innovative capital, and Northwest Iowa as a result of high exposure and low environmental institutional capital. In a state with dominant farming communities, whether to include its major metropolitan areas to assess winter storm vulnerability seemed to only affect the evaluation of the general pattern of adaptive capacity but not exposure or sensitivity.

Smallholder Farmers’ Perceptions, Adaptation Constraints, and Determinants of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change in Chengdu

This study assessed smallholder farmers’ perceptions, adaptation constraints, and determinants of adaptive capacity to climate change. The study used severity and problem confrontation index estimations to examine the farmers’ perceptions of climate warming and barriers to climate adaptation. The results indicated that the farmers were cognizant of climate change and its adverse impacts on their livelihood. It was evident that most surveyed rice farmers perceived changes in climatic conditions to affect rice production adversely. The farmers claimed that unpredictable weather conditions, limited farm size, inadequate farm labor, scarce water resources, high cost of farm inputs, and insufficient information on weather conditions had impeded their adoption of climate change adaptive strategies. Based on the results of the principal component analysis, economic resources, physical resources, information, human resources, and technology significantly influence smallholder farmers’ responsive ability to climate warming. Therefore, policymakers must design policy frameworks and measures that consider these significant factors explaining farmers’ constraints to climate change adaptation.

The adaptiveness of the healthcare system to the fourth industrial revolution: A preliminary analysis

We are witnessing the rapid development of new technologies, sophisticated devices and related applications fuelled by the fourth industrial revolution in healthcare systems. The aim of this paper is to identify the key determinants of the healthcare system’s adaptive capacity to respond to the outcomes of the fourth industrial revolution. Through a narrative literature review, the main healthcare system’s adaptive capacity determinants are identified and then examined through explorative and qualitative research based on data gathered from interviews with experts from the Polish healthcare system. We conclude that research on the adaptability of the healthcare system remains in its early stages, and the most significant healthcare determinants of adaptive capacity for the fourth industrial revolution are human capital, financial resources, and legal regulations. We also note a lack of long-term vision for the healthcare system in Poland, which can hinder the implementation of advanced health technologies. The article ends with recommendations for future research directions.

Structuring the Discussion on the Multiple Threats of Climate Change to Fisheries around Impact Pathways and Adaptation Pathways

Climate change is threatening the fisheries on which communities depend. In this issue of One Earth, Ojea et al. describe the impacts of species range shifts and discuss possible adaptation pathways and policy solutions. However, climate change brings multiple threats to fisheries, so framing the discussion on adaptation options is critical.

Propensity to adapt to climate change: insights from pastoralist and agro-pastoralist households of Laikipia County, Kenya

Climate change is a reality in Africa’s drylands. Pastoralists are engaging and embracing a range of adaptive strategies to adjust to these changes. The socioeconomic factors driving them to engage in a portfolio of multiple adaptation strategies have not been adequately addressed in the existing literature. A multivariate probit model was used to analyze them as determinants of adaptive capacity that promotes or hinders adaptation to climate change. Adaptation is represented by uptake of multiple strategies (irrigation, livestock migration, fodder production, and improved livestock breeds) by households, a demonstration of a household’s ability to diversify and adapt to the effects of climate change. The household asset base, particularly social capital represented by government assistance, stands out as it positively influenced by the uptake of four out of five adaptation strategies; that is, irrigation, livestock manure, fodder production, and improved breeds. Information heavily supports the adaptation process as it influenced all the five adaptation strategies analyzed but has a heterogeneous effect, supporting households to either adopt or reject a strategy. Crop-based information positively determines uptake of yield-enhancing strategies while relevant information for livestock activities contributes to the uptake of livestock-based strategies. These findings suggest that mainstreaming agricultural innovations, building a household asset base, and facilitating access to agronomic and climatic information will enable dryland communities to better adapt to climate change.

Perceived adaptive capacity within a multi-level governance setting: The role of bonding, bridging, and linking social capital

In 2012 Sweden implemented a collaborative governance regime for managing moose (Alces alces). This was guided by the awareness that decentralization and stakeholder participation can help to reduce conflicts, foster systematic learning, and handle complexity. However, previous research has highlighted that there are no blueprint approaches to the governance and management of natural resources. In this case, diverse multi-use landscapes, ever-changing ungulate populations, and other external stressors (e.g. climate change, wildlife diseases) can create challenges for collaborative institutions. Adaptive capacity is therefore needed as it allows a system and the actors involved to react successfully to social-ecological changes and to develop even in times of no imminent change or risk. Using Swedish moose management as an example of a multi-level governance system, this research assesses the critical determinants of adaptive capacity across levels. We developed and applied a psychometric approach to measure actors’ perceived adaptive capacity on two levels in the management system. A web-based survey was sent to Moose Management Groups (n = 765, response rate = 81 %) and Moose Management Units (n = 1,380, response rate = 71 %). Using structural equation modelling, we assessed the relative importance of governance aspects, different types of social capital, as well as human and financial capital on actors’ perceived adaptive capacity. Linking and bridging social capital in the system had significant impacts on both levels. Actors felt more prepared to handle future challenges in moose management when they perceived benefits through collaborations with levels below and expressed social trust in authorities and the management level above. Besides those similarities between the two levels, fairness was a more important determinant of actors’ perceived adaptive capacity on the lower management level. These results can contribute to a future improvement of the collaborative governance setting by finessing strategic interventions on different levels. Furthermore, our results illustrate the importance of scale when assessing the adaptive capacity of a system.

The Governance of Local Urban Climate Adaptation: Towards Participation, Collaboration and Shared Responsibilities

ABSTRACTThis paper focuses on understanding the institutional determinants of adaptive capacity to illustrate emerging challenges and opportunities for climate adaptation in the context of urban pluvial flood risk management. The paper explores and compares the formal-legal as well as the perceived roles and responsibilities of key actor groups in the context of adaptation to urban pluvial flooding in the Dutch city Arnhem. The concluding section questions the assumed power of formal-legal rules and institutions in motivating key stakeholders to take action. It poses that, in order to stimulate participation and collaboration in local climate adaptation, more attention should be paid to the informal institutional context, in particular to the perception of responsibilities.

Managing cow herd dynamics in environments of limited forage productivity and livestock marketing channels: An application to semi-arid Pacific island beef production using system dynamics

Sustainable ranching operations require access to adequate forage reserves and suitable means to market livestock, both of which are critical determinants of adaptive capacity (defined here as the ability to manipulate stocking rate). Ranch adaptive capacity is most relevant during times of forage shortages from drought. Unfortunately for island beef production systems, traditional adaptive measures used in continental systems are unavailable, such as transporting livestock to less affected areas, importing feed resources (cost prohibitive), intensive grazing practices or stockpiling forage (since forages mature too rapidly and are generally low quality), or destocking through cull cow sales (due to limited marketing and processing capacities). Located on an island of Hawaii, the case study ranch investigated here is challenged by each of these environmental and market constraints. The ranch resides on the leeward side of its island such that it receives minimal rainfall and forage productivity is similar to semi-arid rangelands in the western United States. The ranch's livestock management problem is compounded during drought, since island slaughter capacity is limited and there is no financially feasible means of marketing and transporting culled livestock off the island. Therefore, when forage is limited, managers are forced to retain ownership of culled mature cows, who are moved into a terminal herd to await the next available harvest or shipping availability. Terminal herds occupy areas with lower quality forages to conserve the most productive pastures for higher valued calves. This backlog of cull cows creates extended periods of stress on forage resources, since grazing pressure is not relieved as drought intensifies and increases operational expenses. A simulation model was created in an effort to identify key leverage points within the ranching operation that have the greatest impact on forage availability, herd size and net income. Upon completion of the model, sensitivity analyses were conducted to identify key drivers of model behaviors and several what-if scenarios were run based on questions provided by island ranch managers. Results showed that reducing terminal herd size through increased island processing capacity would not relieve forage pressure or eliminate the backlog of terminal cull cows, although net income was improved through greater cow sales. Several follow up tests were then run to evaluate changes to internal ranch decision making, which showed that reductions in heifer retention would provide a wider array of ecological and economic benefits. The ranch's ability to manipulate heifer retention rates, rather than cull cow rates, terminal herd shipping, or island processing capacity, was shown to be the critical aspect which drives ranch adaptive capacity.

Adaptive capacity to climate change: A synthesis of concepts, methods, and findings in a fragmented field

Adaptive capacity is an important element of long‐term adaptation to climate change and is the focus of a rapidly growing body of research. Interdisciplinary growth has the potential to introduce new methods and insights, but it could also cause fragmentation and hamper methodological development or limit transfer of academic insights to climate change adaptation practice. This article uses qualitative content, bibliometric, and citation network analyses to systematically review the scope, methods, and findings of 276 studies on adaptive capacity of social and social‐ecological systems. The review demonstrates that adaptive capacity research is highly interdisciplinary; covers a wide range of sectors, geographic locations, and scales of analysis; and is highly fragmented. The majority of empirical studies are isolated by lack of comparative work and cross‐field citation. Forty‐six percent of studies reviewed do not cite prior works on adaptive capacity: even those on similar topics in the same geographic location. Methods to assess adaptive capacity have proliferated to include more than 64 indicator‐based indices or frameworks and 37 proxy outcome measures. The article argues that lack of either consensus or debate across the literature raises concerns that scientific progress in the field may be constrained and the ability of adaptive capacity research to inform adaptation practice may be limited. To promote consistency and transparency in future work, 158 determinants of adaptive capacity are defined and illustrated with common assessment indicators and examples. Additional opportunities for progress are noted with suggestions for future research.This article is categorized under: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Institutions for Adaptation

Determinants of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change among Smallholder Rural Households in the Bongo District, Ghana

This study examined the determinants of adaptive capacity of smallholder rural households to climate change in the Bongo District of the Upper East Region of Ghana. It employed a mixed method approach involving questionnaire survey of 150 households randomly selected from two communities within the district, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The results of a binary logistic regression model indicates that five predictor variables (education of the household, farming experience, farm size, belief system and training) out of 11 tested determinants were significant at 1%, 5% and 10% probability levels. Forward stepwise (likelihood ratio) showed that these five variables had explained 61% of the total variances in households’ adaptive capacity. The study concludes that attempts to support household adaptation strategies to climate change should pay considerable attention to understanding socio-economic factors, including education and belief systems, in order to develop sustainable strategies that will be culturally accepted by communities. Keywords : Adaptation, Education and Training, Experience, Livelihood, Socio-cultural Factors

Spatial, network and temporal dimensions of the determinants of adaptive capacity in poor urban areas

Abstract Slums and informal settlements are home to rapidly growing populations in urban areas globally and face a range of significant shocks and stresses. The sustainability of these places is critically intertwined with the resilience of their populations. The nature of the capacity for populations to adapt to shocks, as an element of resilience, is related to the evolving knowledge and networks of those populations and is suggested here to have significant spatial and temporal variation. We analyse the key determinants of adaptive capacity and hypothesise that they are related to spatial dimensions of urban form, temporal dimensions of migration, place attachment, and to social differentiation. We investigate these dynamics of adaptive capacity across a transect of urbanisation from inner city to periphery in Kampala, Uganda using diverse methods including a sample survey of residents (n = 720) and ego-network analysis. Results show that the key determinants of individual-level adaptive capacity are attachment to place, social networks, and duration of residence. There are significant differences in adaptive capacity between slum areas, as well as strong social group and temporal dimensions. These findings suggest the importance of measuring adaptive capacities at appropriate spatial and temporal scales in order to identify specific interventions for slums that build the resilience of their populations.

From Flood Control to Water Management: A Journey of Bangladesh towards Integrated Water Resources Management

Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is considered as a practical approach in solving water-related problems, which are socio-ecologically complex in nature. Bangladesh has also embraced the IWRM approach against its earlier attempt to flood control. In this paper, we evaluate the current status of IWRM in Bangladesh through the lens of policy shifts, institutional transitions and project transformations using seven key dimensions of IWRM. Looking at IWRM from such perspectives is lacking in current literature. A thorough review of policy shifts suggests that all the key dimensions of IWRM are “highly reflected” in the current policy documents. The dimension of “integrated management” is “highly reflected” in both institutional transition and project-level transformation. Most other dimensions are also recognised at both institutional and project levels. However, such reflections gradually weaken as we move from policies to institutions to projects. Despite catchment being considered as a spatial unit of water management at both institutional and project levels, transboundary basin planning is yet to be accomplished. The participation of local people is highly promoted in various recent projects. However, equity and social issues have received less attention at project level, although it has significant potential for supporting some of the key determinants of adaptive capacity. Thus, the IWRM dimensions are in general reflected in recent policies, institutional reforms and project formulation in Bangladesh. However, to solve the complex water-problems, basin scale management through transboundary cooperation and equity and social issues need to be implemented at institutional and project levels.

The adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers to climate change in the Northern Region of Ghana

Climate change is expected to adversely affect agricultural production, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where the agricultural sector forms the backbone of most countries’ economies. This thus holds true for the agriculture sector of the Northern Region of Ghana which is largely rain-fed and dominated by smallholder farmers with minimal livelihood alternatives. The main research question of this paper is how the adaptive capacity to climate change of smallholder farmers in the Northern Region of Ghana can be characterised? The paper proposes an indicator-based framework for assessing the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers in the Northern Region of Ghana along six main determinants of adaptive capacity: economic resources, social capital, awareness and training, technology, infrastructure and institutions. Based on a thorough literature review and qualitative interviews with experts for rural livelihoods and agriculture in the study region, the determinants were ranked and three to five indicators per determinant were selected. The results of the expert interviews show that economic resources, awareness and training as well as technological capacities seem most relevant for smallholder farmers’ adaptive capacity while infrastructure, social capital, and institutions were ranked least important. The study operationalized the indicators in a standardized survey questionnaire and tested it in two agrarian communities in the Northern Region of Ghana. The survey results show the aggregate adaptive capacity of respondents is low. However, disparities in adaptive capacity were recorded among respondents in terms of gender and education. Differentiating between the determinants women farmer show significantly lower capacities in fields of economic resources, technology and knowledge and awareness. This paper recommends resilience building interventions in the study area that target individuals with low adaptive capacities, especially women and farmers without formal education.