Deterioration Of Bilateral Relations Research Articles

Understanding the Escalation статьи in U.S.-Russian Relations during the D. Trump Era: Unpacking the “Split Subject” Phenomenon

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election intensifi ed the divide within American society and the political climate in Washington, causing a signifi cant impact on the relationship between Moscow and Washington. Despite the US political system overcoming the challenges faced during Trump’s presidency, there was also a surge in tensions between the US and Russia. The deterioration of bilateral relations can be attributed to the dysfunctional interagency communication channels and the tightening of sanctions through the CAATSA law. Moscow ultimately shifted its stance from aspiring to normalization to recognizing the likelihood of military-political confrontation. This article presents a hypothesis that comprehensively explains the factors contributing to this shift. The hypothesis underscores the lack of coherence among American political leaders, as four unique interest groups – President Trump, Republican hawks, oppositional bureaucrats, and Democratic Congress members – all contribute to shaping US policy toward Russia. Each group advances its specifi c objectives, sometimes joining forces to bypass the president’s policies. Consequently, a “split subject” phenomenon emerges in US-Russian aff airs. The author concludes that the lack of constructive dialogue with Washington during Trump’s presidency was due to the “split subject.” The victory of J. Biden in the 2020 elections and the alignment of American bipartisan elites amid the Russian-Ukrainian confl ict temporarily shifted this phenomenon to the background. Nevertheless, the author raises the question of whether this “cleavage” might reemerge if Trump or his close associates win the 2024 US presidential election.

The Establishing of the First Bulgarian Language аnd Literature Academic Department in Turkey

Russian Language and Literature is among the first foreign philologies established in the officially opened in 1935 Faculty of Languages, History and Geography in Ankara. In 1962 Bulgarian language began to be taught at the Language School of the Land Forces in Istanbul. The forced change of the names of the Turks in Bulgaria in 1984-1985, which caused a deterioration in bilateral relations, delayed the establishment of the planned bachelor's program in Bulgarian language and literature in the early 1980s. Thus, Polish Language and Literature (1987/1988) overtook Bulgarian studies and became the second philological specialty of the Slavic languages, opened at the University of Ankara. 1991 is the birth date of the academic department university specialty Bulgarian language and literature in Turkey, when the first group of students was admitted. For 32 years, it went through various stages of development or stagnation, but retained its status as a specialty. This article aims to present her previously unexplored and unknown history.

Towards a critical geopolitics of China–US rivalry: Pericentricity, regional conflicts and transnational connections

AbstractThe deterioration of bilateral relations between the US and China heralds a new chapter in geopolitics increasingly characterised by competition and confrontation. We introduce insights from contemporary Cold War historiography, which we suggest can help deepen our understanding of the present. Historians have largely rejected the notion that the Cold War was a bipolar struggle between great powers. Instead, the ‘Global Cold War’ is increasingly interpreted as an era, order or context whose diverse localised manifestations necessitate multilingual research around the world. This scholarship draws attention to the conflict's ‘pericentric’ nature, its diverse regional manifestations and the transnational connections it enabled. We demonstrate that these concepts can inform research on contemporary China–US rivalry and suggest a multi‐scalar and multi‐sited research agenda in line with approaches of feminist political geography and critical geopolitics.

The Current State of Russian-Canadian Economic Relations

The article analyzes the current state of Russian-Canadian economic relations, examines trends in bilateral trade and accumulated direct investments. It is shown that Russian exports to Canada are now back to the levels seen before 2014, while Canadian exports to Russia have not been able to recover from the consequences of a sharp deterioration in bilateral relations. It is concluded that Canada supplies Russia mainly with products with high added value, while Russian exports to the Canadian market are dominated by raw materials and low-value products. It is indicated that the scale of Russian-Canadian investment cooperation has significantly decreased after 2014. However, there is noticeable Russian presence in the Canadian metallurgical industry and agricultural machinery engineering, while Canadian companies have strong positions in Russian mining sector and vehicle engineering. It is noted that Russian-Canadian economic relations remain hostage to the hostile policy of the ruling circles of Canada towards Russia.

МИГРАЦИЯ 1950-1970-ГГ. ИЗ КИТАЯ В КАЗАХСТАН: ФАКТОРЫ И ОСНОВНЫЕ ЭТАПЫ

The article considers internal and external factors of interstate migration in the 1960s and 1970s from the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous region of China to Soviet Kazakhstan. Based on a comparative analysis of archival information and oral histories of migrants, it reveals the push and pull factors of interstate migration, which involved different ethnic groups of the population of the regions bordering Kazakhstan in the Chinese province. The migration was a result of the changed geopolitical situation formed with the end of the civil war in China and the unification of the country under the rule of the Communist Party. The changes in Soviet-Chinese relations, which underwent a transformation from “eternal friendship” to a complete break in a short period of time, and the related actions of the Soviet consulates to attract the population to Soviet citizenship, coupled with the propaganda of life in the Soviet Union, contributed to the growth of the migration mood of the population, which allows us to consider migration as the last stage of the struggle of major powers for influence in Central Asia, known as the “great game”. The article also describes the main stages of mass migration, which initially had an organized character, and with the deterioration of bilateral relations and growth of migration sentiments caused by socio-economic reforms, political campaigns and repressions, acquired a spontaneous character and led to an exodus of the population in the spring of 1962. The reseach was carried out within the framework of the project of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan “Oral history of migration of the 1950-1970s from China to Kazakhstan” (АР08856732).

Sino-U.S. Decoupling: The Roles of U.S. Congress.

The Sino-U.S. relations tumbled during the Trump Administration. The talk of decoupling permeated the decision-making circle in Washington D.C. Many factors have contributed to the free fall. The roles Congress has played are undoubtedly one of them. Based on the new institutionalist approach, this study provides three analyses of recent China-related legislative activities. First, the historical analysis of legislative data illustrates a surge in congressional activism on China-related legislative activities. Second, the content analysis reveals some of the triggers in the deterioration of bilateral relations in recent years. Third, the political analysis of the critical congressional players and the structures and procedures Congress created provides some insight into the domestic and political logic of the congressional crusade against China. Finally, the paper ends with assessing the impact of the surge in Congressional activism on the new Biden Administration.

‘We Don’t Drown our Partners in a Sea of Debt’: U.S. Policy Responses to China’s Belt and Road Initiative

Abstract Whereas the Obama administration had equivocated, the Trump White House declared its vehement opposition to the Belt and Road Initiative (bri). This shift went together with the Trump administration’s designation of the People’s Republic of China (prc) as a strategic competitor and a broader deterioration in bilateral relations. However, as it began to posit alternatives to the bri, the Trump administration fell back on the policy thinking of the established foreign policy community. In doing this, it tacitly accepted the importance of soft power and the adoption of strategies requiring close cooperation with allies and partners so as to develop regional infrastructural “connectivity” projects. The White House thereby stepped back from the unilateralism, “principled realism,” and reliance upon hard power that had defined Donald J. Trump’s 2015–2016 presidential campaign. Nonetheless, U.S. efforts to develop policy alternatives to the bri were limited, unstable, and variegated. The Trump administration’s actions in other policy arenas often stymied efforts to counter the prc and initiatives such as the build Act and “Prosper Africa” received scant resources. On the basis of this policy pattern, the article argues that policy communities at times can “harness” other counter-positioned, political currents, but ongoing ideational stresses and abrasion will inevitably characterize the process.

Analysis of Discussions within the Chinese Society on China’s Position in World in the Context of Sino-American Relations Deterioration during the Pandemic Period

During the pandemic, Sino-US relations have remarkably deteriorated. The institutionalization of such destructive practices as toughening rhetoric in the media and sanctions is becoming obvious. As the model of bilateral relations is now aimed at decoupling the degradation will continue. These trends inevitably affect the mood of the Chinese society. The article analyzes opinions on foreign policy in Chinese society in the context of Sino American relations within the pandemic period. The work is divided into two parts: the first assesses general trends in US-China relations. The second part traces the current trends in the modern ideological and political atmosphere in Chinese society. The episode with congratulations to the Chinese public from the American administration on the occasion of the 101st anniversary of the famous «May 4, 1919 movement» is analyzed as a case study. The research shows that this event received ambiguous and even opposite assessments: part of the society saw in it as an attempt to accuse China of the spread of coronavirus and the imposition of Western values. Another part emphasized M. Pottinger’s rather high level of spoken Chinese and noted that the very fact of congratulation can be viewed as a positive moment for bilateral relations. There were also positions combining both approaches. The case under consideration reveals the danger of decoupling initiated by the parties. The tension between the PRC and the United States leads to the fact that the partners are starting to interpret each other’s intentions as presumably hostile, even taking into account such a formally favorable occasion as congratulations on a significant historical date. Meanwhile, it seems that the presence of positive interpretations against the background of a general deterioration in bilateral relations also cannot be ignored. Although public opinion cannot be unambiguous and does not always directly influence specific political steps, it is important to take into account the full range of opinions for an objective and comprehensive analysis of Sino American relations.

КИТАЙСКИЕ ДИСКУССИИ ОБ ОТНОШЕНИЯХ С США И ТОРГОВОЙ ВОЙНЕ

The article analyzes the debates of Chinese researchers on the relations with the United States at the backstage of the “trade war”. The statements of the Chinese leadership about the continuation of the “period of historical chances” for national development are combined with calls to be prepared for contingencies and to pay extra attention to new trends in international environment that do not correspond with normative theses about irreversible tendencies of multipolarity, economic globalization and impossibility of a large-scale war. “Trade war” has become an incentive for understanding the reasons of deterioration in bilateral relations and searching for new sources of their stability. The most of Chinese foreign policy analysts believe that it is possible to extend the “period of historical chances” even in time of such a deterioration. However, the standard set of recommendations from Chinese experts (deepening of market reforms, participation in the reform of global governance and world order, strengthening national power while expanding cooperation with other countries for the sake of construction of a “new type of international relations”) have not offered a recipe how to prevent further worsening of Chinese-American relations. Broad positive recommendations to develop dialogue and avoid serious conflicts are useless at strategic junctures when the opposite side speaks the language of ultimatums. Chinese mainstream habitually emphasizes that cooperation between Beijing and Washington is beneficial to both countries and for the world, while no one gains from the confrontation. The proposals to the American side to “get rid of the zero-sum game mentality”, “take a more positive look at the development of China”, “constantly expand the space and prospects for bilateral win” were not able to curb constantly rising tensions in bilateral relations. Nevertheless, in a number of academic publications one can find optimistic statements that in the next couple of years, Donald Trump will surely soften the U.S. policy towards China. Realist point of view recognizes the possibility of intensifying rivalry between Beijing and Washington. Chinese researchers are increasingly turning to the analysis of the interaction of the two countries as “competition together with cooperation” or “struggle without destruction” (“dou er bu po”). The intention to establish an atmosphere of “healthy competition” in bilateral relations may not be feasible, since China does not have tools to convince Trump administration to abandon the pursuit of absolute superiority. After the bilateral trade lost its function as a stabilizer of Sino-American relations, experts felt the necessity to find new sources of stability. The main task is not focused on restoring the previous levels of cooperation. It is more important to recognize the differences between the two countries and create new effective mechanisms for conflict management by clearly defining “red lines” and communicating with other party to clarify interests and strategic intentions. In reliance on research publications in Chinese academic journals, the article demonstrates that optimistic judgments about the continual importance and strength of China-U.S. relations gradually gave way to realistic estimates based on the recognition of fundamental changes in this sphere. More notable became the efforts of Chinese researchers in comparative analysis of national strategies and consideration of alternative scenarios for further development of relations with the United States.&nbsp

50 years of the Prague Spring: A measure of the impact of history on contemporary relations between Russia, the Czech Republic and Slovakia

The 50 th anniversary of the Prague Spring is marked in 2018. Today, the events of 1968 retain their significance for relations between Russia, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The subject of the research is the impact of the events of the Prague Spring in 1968 on current relations between Russia and the countries of the former Czechoslovakia. The author analyzes in detail the key causes and consequences of the Prague Spring, as well as the current state of Russian-Czech and Russian-Slovak relations in conditions of anti-Russian sanctions. Analyzing the role of the attitudes of modern Czechs and Slovaks to the events of 1968, the author concluded that for the citizens of the Czech Republic and Slovakia, they are more historical. Condemning the entry of Warsaw Pact troops into Prague, Russia closed this chapter in its relations with the countries of the former Czechoslovakia. At the same time, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, becoming separate countries, overcame the problems in their relations in the 20 th century. The article demonstrates that the deterioration of bilateral relations between Russia and the Czech Republic and Russia and Slovakia is due not to unsatisfied historical claims, but to the general cooling in relations between Russia and the EU and the policy of sanctions. Today, Prague and Bratislava are forced to balance between Brussels and Moscow, seeking to ensure their national interests, which for the Czech Republic and Slovakia are inextricably linked with both the European Union and Russia. The novelty of the research lies in the study of relations between Russia, the Czech Republic and Slovakia through the prism of the evolution of their cultural and historical determinants. Thus, the author used the case study method and content analysis in his research. The theoretical basis of the research was the works of both Russian and foreign authors. The practical basis of the study was data from sociological surveys conducted in the Czech Republic and Slovakia in recent decades, as well as the evidence of eyewitnesses of the events of the Prague Spring.

РОССИЙСКО-УКРАИНСКИЕ ИНВЕСТИЦИОННЫЕ СВЯЗИ ПОСЛЕ ЕВРОМАЙДАНА

Preliminary results of investment cooperation between Russia and Ukraine after the Ukrainian crisis are somewhat contradictory. On the one hand, the deterioration of bilateral relations and economic recession in Ukraine have led to a significant reduction of both inward and outward stocks of mutual FDI, the closure of several large enterprises and restrictive measures imposed by the new Ukrainian authorities on the Russian companies, businessmen and governmental officials. The alternative calculations provided by the experts of IMEMO give evidence that, contrary to official statistics, the mutual investments are still declining, the number of discontinued projects is increasing and the sectoral composition of FDI is becoming more and more primitive. On the other hand, many companies, both Russian and Ukrainian, demonstrated their ability to quickly adapt to changing circumstances, to improve their business operational processes, to establish new corporate brands and to find opportunities to circumvent the existing restrictions. The author concludes that the future of Russian-Ukrainian investment ties is quite murky. The anti-Russian consensus in Ukraine will hamper further investments even if the country’s economy will grow at a stronger pace, because some of Russian companies are waiting for a more favourable business environment to sell their assets. In the long run, the so-called neighborhood effect, which was previously a serious incentive for mutual investment, will come to naught. When making investment decisions Russian companies will pay more attention to other factors, such as political conditions, business climate and Ukraine’s new trade opportunities with the EU. As for the Ukrainian investments, they will mainly depend on the state of affairs in the Russian economy.

Ludobójstwo w Rwandzie i jego polityczne konsekwencje

The Rwandan Genocide of 1994 and its political consequences
 In April 2014, the international community commemorated the 20th Anniversary of the Genocide in Rwanda. A series of events took place in Rwanda and around the World to honour the memory of those who died in this act of ethnic violence. Dramatic events from 1994 were undoubtedly a turning point in the history of this small African country. For the last two decades, Rwanda was on the path of significant political, social and economic changes. The main aim of this article is to reconstruct the course of the Genocide and to provide a description of changes that have occurred in Rwanda during the past twenty years. The author focuses mainly on changes in the political sphere. The article presents the socio‑political structure of Rwanda until and after gaining independence. It explains how the events of 1994 shaped the current structure of the Rwandan state. The article identifies the international dimension of the effects of the Genocide – deterioration of bilateral relations with France, destabilization in the African Great Lakes region and development of international justice instruments.

Does Money Follow the Flag?

We examine whether bilateral political relations can explain investment and trade flows between the United States and other countries. We treat political relations as endogenous using instrumental variable analysis and investigate whether an exogenous shock to political relations, the 2003 war in Iraq, leads to a shift in economic flows. The results suggest that a deterioration in bilateral relations is followed by a significant decrease in economic flows between the United States and that country. These results are robust to country fixed effects, income, industry growth, financial market development, and risk.

Cuba and Haiti in Mexico's Foreign Policy

The principles of Mexico's foreign policy remained essentially unchanged during the Cold War and into the early post-Cold War period. The most vigorous discussion concerning change-or even rupture-in Mexican foreign policy were prompted by the negotiations for the North American free trade agreement (NAFTA), and Mexico's internal political opening towards the end of the 1990s. This paper will examine Mexican policy towards Cuba and Haiti to assess the extent of change and continuity in Mexican foreign policy in a post-Cold War and post-September nth context.For some time during the 1990s, Mexican governments resisted international trends towards the active promotion of democracy and human rights, although they enthusiastically endorsed goals such as economic liberalization and free trade. In time, however, Mexican governments recognized they could no longer ignore the importance of democracy and human rights, not only because of the influence of the international agenda, but also because of rapid social and political transformations domestically. Thus, as President Vicente Fox took office in 2000, the promotion of democracy and human rights became a key element in Mexico's foreign policy and the discussion about Mexican foreign policy change deepened. As a country that had traditionally defended the principle of non-intervention and the right to self-determination, Mexico was now taking forceful positions in favour of democracy and respect of human rights everywhere in the world. The two cases examined here, Cuba and Haiti, are related to Mexico's attitude towards international politics. The promotion of democracy and human rights was a consideration in Mexican policy towards both Cuba and Haiti, and yet its approach differed significantly in each case. With respect to Cuba, Mexican policy changed significantly from what it had been since 1959 by including an explicit position in favour of the adoption of democracy and the protection of human rights in Cuba. In other words, the Mexican government has taken a stand for political change in Cuba, thereby leaving aside principles such as non-intervention and the right to self-determination. This policy, coupled with Cuba's resistance to change, led to a deterioration in bilateral relations not seen since the Cuban revolution.The Haitian case, on the other hand, illustrates the limits of Mexico's support for democracy and human rights abroad. The Mexican government agreed on the need to encourage democracy and the protection of human rights in Haiti through multilateral mechanisms, but rejected the use of force and refused to join United Nations efforts to stabilize Haiti. Thus, the Cuban case illustrates change in Mexican foreign policy whereas the Haitian case reflects continuity. In both cases, Mexico acted in accordance with a regional agenda that privileged democracy and human rights but, as this paper will argue, only when domestic circumstances benefited from it.REGIONAL SECURITY, DEMOCRACY, AND THE UNITED STATESThe 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks have been taken as the end of the post-Cold War era and the beginning of the antiterror era. Although they did not mean a complete rupture in the international structure and dynamics-international politics is always composed of a series of continuities and changes-the terrorist attacks did give a more specific meaning to the idea of a security threat in US foreign policy.As US foreign policy did not have a clear regional enemy or security threat once the Soviet bloc disintegrated and Nicaragua and El Salvador joined most Latin American countries in embracing democracy, issues such as drug trafficking and organized crime were given an important position in the US foreign policy agenda, and were even considered security threats not only to the United States, but to the region as a whole. This did not occur in a straightforward way, however, with all hemispheric countries agreeing on a new security agenda. …

Turkey and the United States

Tensions between Turkey and the US in the buildup to and aftermath of the Iraq war cast a shadow over Washington's relations with one of its closest allies in the region. Attempts by Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul to forge closer ties with Iran and Syria have further fuelled speculation that, in the new regional security environment created by the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, relations between Ankara and Washington will become more confrontational than cooperative - with the uncertain situation in northern Iraq providing a dangerous flashpoint. However, the deterioration in bilateral relations has been the result of accidents of timing and of the complex dynamics of Turkish politics, rather than the product of a calculated strategy on Turkey's part.