Detailed Risk Assessment Research Articles

Subclinical target organ damage in a sample of children and adolescents with solitary functioning kidney. A pilot study

Background: Patients with solitary functioning kidney appear to be exposed to an increased cardiovascular risk. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of peripheral and central blood pressure on subclinical cardiovascular organ damage in a sample of children and adolescents with solitary functioning kidney. Methods: Carotid ultrasonography was performed to measure the carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and the carotid distensibility coefficient. The carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV) was assessed by tonometry. Cardiac mass and remodeling were estimated using transthoracic echocardiography. Central and peripheral (both office and 24-h ambulatory) BP measurements were collected. Results: Forty-four patients were included. Eighteen subjects (45%) were hypertensive as assessed by 24-h ABPM, with a prevalence of masked hypertension of 43%. Twenty-three subjects (52%) had an increased cIMT, while 2 and 3 patients (5% and 7%) demonstrated an impaired carotid distensibility coefficient and PWV, respectively. Nineteen subjects (43%) showed concentric cardiac remodeling. Central systolic blood pressure (cSBP) correlated with cIMT (r = 0.35) and left ventricular mass index (LVMi) (r = 0.32) demonstrating a positive independent association with an increased cIMT (odds ratio 1.14, 95% confidence interval 1.01–1.29) in multivariate regression analysis. Conclusion: Children and adolescents with solitary functioning kidney exhibited a high prevalence of masked hypertension and subclinical cardiovascular organ damage. These findings support the use of 24-h ABPM to identify patients with a higher cardiovascular risk who would benefit from hypertension treatment and closer monitoring during growth and into adulthood. Additionally, cSBP measurement should be considered as part of a more detailed cardiovascular risk assessment in these patients.

Introduction of Time Impact Analysis (TIA) Method for Risk Analysis to Overcome Limitations of Existing Risk Analysis Methods

This paper explores the efficacy of existing risk analysis methodologies and introduces a novel approach termed Time Impact Analysis (TIA). Through a detailed examination of traditional risk assessment techniques, their limitations, and a comparative analysis, this research highlights the benefits of TIA in enhancing risk management practices. TIA is a hybrid framework that integrates qualitative and quantitative analyses to address temporal dynamics in risk evaluation. By applying TIA to a construction project case study, the study demonstrates its capability to offer nuanced insights into risk impacts over time, surpassing the static nature of traditional risk matrices and the complexity of advanced probabilistic methods. The paper provides a comprehensive overview of TIA, including its development, algorithmic approach, and real-world applications, and compares its performance with established methods based on metrics such as computational efficiency, accuracy, scalability, and adaptability. The results indicate that TIA effectively balances computational demands with detailed risk assessment, offering a practical solution for managing both short-term and long-term risks across diverse industries.

Climate Change and Heatwaves in India: Review of Impacts on Public Health, Livelihoods, and Policy

This paper presents a literature review studying the impacts of climate change and heatwaves on public health and livelihoods, with a focus on India. As global climate change accelerates, heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, necessitating new approaches to mitigate their effects on vulnerable populations, especially in urban areas. The review draws on recent studies (2021-2024) that explore the intersections of climate change, heatwaves, public health, livelihoods, policy interventions, and Heat Action Plans. The main findings reveal that heatwaves in India have significant public health impacts, such as increased mortality and morbidity, and disproportionately affect livelihoods, especially in agriculture and informal labor sectors. Vulnerable populations, including urban dwellers and informal workers, face heightened risks, further exacerbated by inadequate infrastructure and policy gaps. The purpose of this review is to synthesize current research to highlight these vulnerabilities and identify gaps in knowledge and policy response. A comprehensive, localized approach combining detailed risk assessments, nature-based solutions, technological innovations, and strengthened governance is essential for effective heatwave management in India. The findings underscore the urgent need for continued research focused on local spaces and comprehensive policy interventions to address the escalating risks posed by climate-induced heatwaves, setting the groundwork for future research and effective heatwave management strategies.

Understanding seismic hazard resilience in Montenegro: A qualitative analysis of community preparedness and response capabilities

Abstract Enhancing resilience against seismic hazards in earthquake-prone regions is essential for reducing the devastating impacts of disasters. Seismic resilience refers to a community’s ability to withstand and recover from earthquake impacts, while preparedness gaps are the areas where current measures are insufficient to effectively respond to or mitigate earthquake damage. This study focuses on Montenegro – a region with frequent seismic activity – aiming to assess resilience levels, identify critical gaps in preparedness, and evaluate the effectiveness of existing response strategies. Using qualitative methods, including semi-structured interviews, the research gathered insights from residents of Montenegro’s most vulnerable cities: Nikšić, Podgorica, Bar, Kotor, Cetinje, Budva, Herceg Novi, and Berane. Participants, chosen for their first-hand experience with significant earthquake impacts, provided valuable perspectives on various aspects of resilience, from local government response to individual preparedness. This research revealed significant disparities in resilience across communities: for instance, approximately 62.5% of the respondents highlighted inadequate education as a barrier to effective earthquake preparedness, and only 37.5% reported awareness of basic earthquake response procedures. Furthermore, while some communities, such as urban areas with accessible services, reported higher preparedness levels, rural areas showed deficiencies, with 50% of the respondents from these areas identifying a lack of organized drills and limited public awareness initiatives. These findings underscore the urgent need for community-specific preparedness programs and enhancements in both structural resilience and public education to bolster community readiness effectively. Also, findings highlight the need for customized preparedness programs tailored to specific community needs, alongside improvements in structural safety measures and educational outreach. The study underscores the importance of a comprehensive approach involving detailed risk assessments, community-focused preparedness training, and stronger public awareness initiatives. Furthermore, the study calls for enhanced local government capabilities to sustain proactive response measures, including rapid mobilization of emergency resources and regular disaster simulations, to build long-term resilience across communities.

Semmelweis University’s innovative Center of Preventive Services in support of healthy ageing

Abstract Issue/problem Europe’s aging population presents substantial hurdles for healthcare sustainability. To alleviate the social and economic impacts of age-related diseases, promoting healthy aging is imperative. However, motivating individuals to adopt a healthier lifestyle proves challenging. Description of the problem Semmelweis University, a leading institution in medicine, health sciences, and health care in Hungary and Central Eastern Europe, has addressed this challenge by establishing the Center of Preventive Services (CPS), serving 12,500 Semmelweis University employees. The CPS conducts comprehensive health risk assessments and offers consultations with specialists in preventive medicine, public health, dietetics, physiotherapy, and health psychology. Motivational interviewing is used to enhance patient engagement and commitment to healthy lifestyle changes. Results The CPS has effectively integrated preventive services into the university’s healthcare system, reaching a significant number of employees. Early results show improvements in participants’ lifestyle and health behaviors due to the effective use of motivational interviewing. According to the first preliminary result, a study on step count conducted within the CPS found that those taking part in motivational interviewing session were able to increase their average daily step count by 1074 (95% Confidence Interval: 116-2033) steps more than controls. Lessons The Semmelweis University’s CPS provides valuable lessons for integrating healthy aging-focused preventive care into healthcare systems: 1. Effective preventive care requires targeted interventions based on detailed risk assessment and motivational interviewing; 2. Embedding preventive services within existing health infrastructure improves accessibility and utilization; 3. Collaborative and multidisciplinary approaches are essential to comprehensively address the needs of ageing populations. Key messages • Motivational interviewing boosts the effectiveness and engagement of preventive health services, which is essential to meet the challenges of ageing populations. • The Semmelweis University’s model program shows that embedding preventive services into the infrastructure of existing institutions like universities is scalable for better public health.

Understanding perioperative risk determinants in carotid endarterectomy: the impact of compromised circle of Willis morphology on inter-hemispheric blood flow indices based on intraoperative internal carotid artery stump pulse pressure and backflow patterns.

Carotid artery stenosis (CAS) often requires surgical intervention through carotid endarterectomy (CEA) to prevent stroke. Accurate cerebrovascular risk assessments are crucial in CEA, as poor collateral circulation can lead to insufficient interhemispheric blood flow compensation, resulting in ischemic complications. Therefore, understanding perioperative risk determinants is vital. This study aims to determine the impact of compromised circle of Willis (CoW) morphology on inter-hemispheric blood flow, focusing on indices based on intraoperative internal carotid artery stump pulse pressure and backflow patterns. In 80 CAS patients who underwent CEA, preoperative CT angiography for CoW was conducted. Patients were categorized into five subgroups based on their CoW anatomy and three additional groups based on intraoperative internal carotid artery (ICA) stump backflow patterns evaluated by the surgeon. Continuous blood pressure signals, including systolic, diastolic, mean, and pulse pressure values, were recorded during the procedure. The relationship between CoW anatomical variants and the systolic and diastolic segments of the averaged pressure waveforms, particularly diastolic pressure decay, was analyzed. The correlation between CoW anatomy and stump backflow intensity was also examined. Significant variability in ICA stump backflow and pressure values was evident across CoW variants. Patients with compromised CoW morphology exhibited weaker backflow patterns and lower ICA stump pulse pressure values, consistent with impaired interhemispheric blood flow. Notably, ICA stump diastolic pressure decay was consistent across most CoW variant groups, indicating developed collateral circulation in cases with CoW anomalies. Thus, impaired CoW integrity is associated with compromised interhemispheric blood flow indices based on intraoperative ICA stump pulse pressure and backflow patterns during CEA. Integrating intraoperative pulse waveform analysis with preoperative CT angiography provides a more detailed assessment of cerebrovascular risk, guiding the selective use of shunts. This combined approach may improve surgical outcomes and patient safety by identifying patients at increased risk of perioperative neurological events due to CoW anomalies.

Ecological Effects of the Huge Invasive Species Removal Project in Coastal China.

Saltmarsh wetlands are recognized as some of the most ecologically valuable yet vulnerable ecosystems globally. However, since the 1970s, saltmarsh wetlands in coastal China have been seriously threatened by the invasive Spartina alterniflora. Although the Chinese government has initiated a nationwide S.alterniflora removal project, the potential benefits and risks of this project remain unknown. Here, we focus on the Yangtze River Estuary Saltmarsh Wetland (YRESW) and simulate its future ecosystem structure, function, and quality under three scenarios based on remote sensing and field investigation data. The simulation scenarios include the absence of a removal project, natural regeneration postproject (NRP), and planted restoration postproject. The results show that the removal project will reverse the escalating invasion trend of S.alterniflora in the YRESW. Compared to the baseline year of 2022, there is a remarkable increase in ecosystem structure (composition: +107%, configuration: +27%) and ecosystem quality (+10.5%) under the NRP scenario. Although blue carbon storage sharply decreases under both scenarios involving project implementation, planted restoration can restore YRESW's carbon sequestration capacity to 0.19 Tg C per year, achieving 87% of the carbon storage present before the project. This study underscores the necessity of comprehensive and detailed risk assessments in ecological projects, particularly when dominant species are involved. Our findings hold significant implications for stabilizing coastal wetland ecosystems and promoting sustainable development in coastal areas.

Medico-legal considerations in immediate loading implantology: risks, responsibilities, and best practices.

The field of immediate loading implantology has grown rapidly, offering quicker solutions for prosthetic rehabilitation. However, the complexity of this technique raises significant medico-legal concerns regarding patient safety, treatment planning, and professional liability. These issues are particularly relevant in elective procedures where failure could lead to litigation. A comprehensive review of current literature, including clinical studies, legal rulings, and malpractice claims, was conducted to assess the legal implications of immediate loading implantology. The analysis focused on professional liability, patient consent, and complications during treatment. The evidence indicates that a high standard of care, including detailed preoperative planning, risk assessment, and clear patient communication, is essential in minimizing legal risks. Malpractice claims often arise from inadequate patient information or failure to follow established protocols. Proper documentation of informed consent and adherence to evidence-based dentistry (EBD) guidelines are crucial to protect both patients and practitioners. Immediate loading implantology offers numerous benefits, but it requires meticulous planning and patient management to avoid medico-legal issues. Ensuring comprehensive patient consent and following evidence-based practices are key to reducing professional liability and improving outcomes. Further studies should explore standardized protocols for reducing complications and legal disputes in implantology.

The Spectrum of Adrenal Lesions in a Tertiary Referral Center.

Adrenal tumors are a common finding in clinical practice, and only detailed evaluation may reveal secretory and metabolic abnormalities or their malignant character. We aimed to highlight epidemiological data, rates of malignancy, clinical or secretory characteristics, and the cardiometabolic implications of adrenal masses. We conducted a retrospective analysis using data from the medical files of 474 patients with adrenal pathology hospitalized between January 2007 and January 2020, before the COVID-19 pandemic, using the ICD-10 codes. After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, a total of 264 patients with adrenal tumors were enrolled in the study. Patients underwent clinical examination, abdominal imaging, and hormonal evaluation, and some of them underwent a pathological exam after adrenalectomy. Median age at diagnosis was 56 (17) years, with 81.06% of patients being female. The median follow-up period was 41.5 (70) months, ranging from 6 months to 13 years. Adrenal tumors were most frequently seen in older female patients, with 83.47% of them being over 40 years old. The malignancy rate was 4.54%. Hormonally nonfunctioning tumors (71.95%) predominated, and overt hypercortisolism was present in 10.61% of patients, as was mild autonomous cortisol secretion in 5.31% of patients, primary hyperaldosteronism in 8.71% of patients, and adrenal paraganglioma in 3.41% of patients. Cardiometabolic comorbid conditions were similar in patients with functioning and nonfunctioning tumors. All patients with adrenal tumors should receive a complete hormonal workup and detailed malignancy risk assessment. Even though a hormonally active tumor predisposes to cardiometabolic comorbid conditions, a nonfunctioning lesion may also be associated with such disorders and needs thorough assessment.

Microzonation Approach for Analyzing Regional Seismic Response: A Case Study of the Dune Deposit in Concón, Chile

Urban areas located on complex geological formations, such as dune deposits, require detailed seismic risk assessments that extend beyond standard seismic codes. This study focuses on the city of Concón, Chile, where a significant portion of the urban area is situated on a coastal dune deposit. The research integrates seismic microzonation with a three-dimensional finite element model (3D FEM) to comprehensively evaluate the regional seismic response. Field data from 208 strategically distributed points were collected and combined with geotechnical and geomorphological information to construct a detailed 3D model of the region. This model allowed for the simulation of seismic behavior under various conditions, highlighting the limitations of general seismic codes in capturing local variations in seismic response. The results underscore the importance of considering local geological conditions in structural design, particularly in areas with irregular topography and complex subsurface conditions. This study concludes that incorporating microzonation into urban planning and seismic analysis can significantly enhance infrastructure resilience and disaster preparedness, providing a replicable approach for other cities facing similar geological challenges.

Determination of Trace Elements Content of a Popular Traditional Herbal Medicine Used for Internal Hemorrhoids Treatment in Katsina State, Nigeria

Study’s Excerpt/Novelty Assessment of toxic metal concentrations of a widely used traditional herb in Katsina state, was carried out. Flame atomic absorption spectrophotometry and descriptive statistical analysis was employed in the research. Pb, Cr, and As were found to be beyond WHO/FAO thresholds. Full Abstract There has been an increase in the utilization of traditional herbal drugs for different medications and health care in Katsina state. This is possibly due to the growing need for complementary disease treatment, relative cheapness, availability, and wider distribution. Raw samples of a popularly used traditional herb (locally named - Dan Lambar Rimi) were purchased from local markets, prepared, and analyzed using a flame atomic absorption spectrophotometer for Pb, Cr, As, Co, Ni, and Cd concentrations. The obtained concentrations were then summarized using descriptive statistics in SPSS Version 27. The results for the elements analyzed were Ni (0.83 ± 0.15), Cd (0.20 ± 0.01), Pb (21.5 ± 6.63), As (2.10 ± 0.70), Cr (2.36 ± 0.37), and Co (1.15 ± 0.22) ppm. Cr, Pb and As concentrations were greater than the WHO/FAO threshold limits for herbal medicines, while that of Cd was within the recommended threshold. Furthermore, the concentrations of these metals (As, Cr, and Pb) were greater than the WHO/FAO acceptable threshold in 50% of the herbal samples analyzed. Therefore, these metals can pose a threat to public health, especially considering the conventional way in which this herbal medicine is used. With deliberate improvement in hygiene during its preparation prior to consumption, the risk will be brought to a minimal. Future studies should perform a detailed chemical risk assessment, especially when we look at the increase in the number of diseases of unknown etiology in the region.

Public Health Security Systems Empowered by Artificial Intelligence for Early Monitoring and Prevention of Epidemics

Artificial intelligence (AI) methods have been extensively used for detecting and predicting Infectious Disease (ID) outbreaks as time series and modeling and evaluating Public Health responses. The significant tasks of PH monitoring and intervention present distinct technical difficulties, including limited data availability, absence of sufficient positive training examples, challenges in establishing benchmarks, measuring the effectiveness of management policies, complex relationships between spatial and time series elements, and more detailed risk assessments involving interaction and social networks. Conventional PH monitoring mainly depends on statistical methods. In recent years, there has been a significant expansion of approaches that AI enables. This research presents an AI method called Early Monitoring and Prevention of Epidemics (AI-EMPE) for enhancing PH security systems. The suggested approach converts a substantial amount of collected PH security incidents into separate incident characteristics and utilizes a Deep Learning (DL)--based detection technique to enhance EMPE. AI-EMPE incorporates sophisticated AI methods, including integrated Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Backpropagation Neural Networks (BP-NN). These findings indicate that the integrated method is the most efficient in improving PH security systems.

Assessing Landslide susceptibility and formulating adaptation strategies in the Konto Watershed, East Java, Indonesia

A landslide is defined as the displacement of masses of soil or rock constituting a slope, or a combination thereof, resulting from the destabilization of the slope composition. This study aims to develop an integrated approach to managing landslide hazards in the Konto Watershed by assessing susceptibility through spatial mapping and providing a detailed risk assessment to inform disaster mitigation, landslide management, and land use planning. The susceptibility formula incorporates eight observational parameters: max 3-day rain, slope, rock geology, fault presence, regolith depth, land use, road infrastructure presence, and population density. Each parameter is assigned a weight value, representing its respective weighting factor. Primary data on landslide potential is gathered through direct field observations in critical areas with slopes exceeding 40 %, while secondary data is sourced from Indonesian government agencies. The secondary data is then identified, mapped, and analyzed using spatial scoring analysis. The research findings indicate that landslide hazards in areas with high slope gradients and specific soil types, land use combined with elevated rainfall, are categorized as very low (1.16 %), low (6.64 %), medium (89.24 %), and high (3.06 %) of susceptibility from 235.22 km2 of watershed area. The regional function area converts 75.8 % of existing land use into 61.2 % protected zones, 32.2 % buffer zones, and 6.6 % cultivation zones, without altering 24.2 % of existing settlement and rice field areas. Landslide control efforts encompass four treatments: protected and buffer area preservation, mechanical treatment, and cultivation area management based on susceptibility levels. Long-term vegetative treatments are designed according to regional function and susceptibility levels.

The toxicological analysis and safety assessment of heavy metals (Hg, Pb, Cd, and As) in food for special medical purposes (FSMP) available in Polish pharmacies for oncological patients

The presence of heavy metals in food products may seem an archaic concern; however, our study reveals that the risk is significant, unexpectedly in Food for Special Medical Purposes (FSMP) for oncology patients available in Polish pharmacies. This investigation fills that gap through a detailed toxicological analysis and health risk assessment of these heavy metals in FSMP products (n = 23) using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Our comprehensive risk assessment involved evaluating (1) the concentrations of As, Cd, Hg, and Pb in both liquid and powdered FSMP formulations, (2) the amount of heavy metals ingested per serving as specified by the manufacturer, and (3) the cumulative daily and weekly intake adjusted for body weight, benchmarked against the provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI). While most samples were below PTWI limits, Cd levels raised concerns due to potential cumulative exposure risks, particularly for oncology patients consuming these products regularly. This study underscores the hidden dangers of heavy metal contamination in FSMP, emphasizing the need for vigilant monitoring and stringent regulatory frameworks to ensure patient safety. By uncovering these latent risks through meticulous toxicological assessment, our research provides crucial insights that could safeguard vulnerable populations. This study is significant due to concerns related to the complex risk assessment of FSMP for cancer patients, considering the complexity of oncological diseases and other comorbid factors, as well as the verification of available legal and regulatory acts of FSMP at the European Community level.

Risk reduction: using the properties of sedation to mitigate the risks of stress-induced medical emergencies - a case series.

Dental anxiety and phobia are widespread in the population, with various non-pharmacological and pharmacological techniques available to manage it, including conscious sedation. Medically complex, anxious patients may be at a higher risk of a stress-induced medical emergency during dental treatment. This article lays out the forms of sedation that may be used to help mitigate this risk, the detailed risk assessment required and how conscious sedation may be used as a prophylactic tool to prevent medical emergencies in these patients. Referring clinicians must know what options are available to enable this cohort of patients to access care.

A semi-quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment framework for European coastal urban areas

Coastal cities are increasingly exposed to a wide range of hydro-meteorological and climate-related hazards and their negative consequences. Developing disaster risk assessments to support risk management activities in these areas is therefore a critically important but challenging task, due to the diversity of processes involved and associated data requirements. Semi-quantitative, i.e. index-based assessments can be instrumental in addressing these issues: by trading off some detail in the representation of risk for simplicity in the underlying data and methods, it becomes possible to assess, compare, and easily communicate risk for various sectors, hazards, and locations. In this context, the present article presents a new semi-quantitative, GIS-based multi-hazard risk assessment framework for coastal urban areas. The framework uses various large-scale datasets and state-of-the-art risk modelling concepts to provide risk scores for six perils in European coastal cities: fluvial flooding, coastal flooding, extreme precipitation, landslide, heat wave, and coastal erosion. An application is presented for the risk assessment of ten case-study areas, illustrating the potential of the proposed framework for identifying the most pressing risks for each area and supporting the prioritization of more detailed quantitative risk assessments for specific cities, sectors and/or hazards, based on which risk mitigation measures can be defined.

Research Trends in Wildland Fire Prediction Amidst Climate Change: A Comprehensive Bibliometric Analysis

Wildfire prediction plays a vital role in the management and conservation of forest ecosystems. By providing detailed risk assessments, it contributes to the reduction of fire frequency and severity, safeguards forest resources, supports ecological stability, and ensures human safety. This study systematically reviews wildfire prediction literature from 2003 to 2023, emphasizing research trends and collaborative trends. Our findings reveal a significant increase in research activity between 2019 and 2023, primarily driven by the United States Forest Service and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The majority of this research was published in prominent journals such as the International Journal of Wildland Fire, Forest Ecology and Management, Remote Sensing, and Forests. These publications predominantly originate from Europe, the United States, and China. Since 2020, there has been substantial growth in the application of machine learning techniques in predicting forest fires, particularly in estimating fire occurrence probabilities, simulating fire spread, and projecting post-fire environmental impacts. Advanced algorithms, including deep learning and ensemble learning, have shown superior accuracy, suggesting promising directions for future research. Additionally, the integration of machine learning with cellular automata has markedly improved the simulation of fire behavior, enhancing both efficiency and precision. The profound impact of climate change on wildfire prediction also necessitates the inclusion of extensive climate data in predictive models. Beyond conventional studies focusing on fire behavior and occurrence probabilities, forecasting the environmental and ecological consequences of fires has become integral to forest fire management and vital for formulating more effective wildfire strategies. The study concludes that significant regional disparities in knowledge exist, underscoring the need for improved research capabilities in underrepresented areas. Moreover, there is an urgent requirement to enhance the application of artificial intelligence algorithms, such as machine learning, deep learning, and ensemble learning, and to intensify efforts in identifying and leveraging various wildfire drivers to refine prediction accuracy. The insights generated from this field will profoundly augment our understanding of wildfire prediction, assisting policymakers and practitioners in managing forest resources more sustainably and averting future wildfire calamities.

Sulfur isotopic variations in the products of the 1895 CE eruption at Zao volcano (NE Japan): Implications for connecting eruption source and syn-eruptive magmatic-hydrothermal processes

Sulfur isotopic ratio in sulfate and sulfide in subvolcanic hydrothermal systems is a valuable tracer to study the magmatic-hydrothermal processes from the magma source through to volcanic eruptions. Zao volcano is among the most active volcanoes in NE Japan, with historical explosive eruptions occurring during the last thousand years and unrest episodes since 2013. This necessitates a detailed assessment of the potential risk of future volcanic hazards. We investigated the magmatic-hydrothermal processes that occurred during the 1895 CE eruption sequence at Zao volcano by conducting mineralogical and sulfur isotope analyses in the exposed well: (i) six volcanic units (Layers 1–6) of the 1895 CE eruption products (clayish ash deposits with andesitic bombs, lapilli of scoria, and minor altered lithic fragments) deposited on the rim of Okama crater lake; and (ii) clay-altered and silicified rocks from the Nigorikawa alteration zone (NGA) surrounding the Goshikidake cone. Mineralogical data show that the samples mainly consist of alunite, pyrite, and gypsum. Alunite and pyrite occur as fine crystal mixtures associated with mineral assemblages of both advanced argillic alteration (i.e., those of cristobalite and kaolinite) and silicification (i.e., those of cristobalite, tridymite and native sulfur). Gypsum typically appears as isolated euhedral crystals of several millimeters in size. Samples of the 1895 CE eruption products have a narrow range of δ34S values from +3 ‰ to +5 ‰ for gypsum, from +9 ‰ to +13 ‰ for alunite, and approximately −10 ‰ for pyrite. For the NGA samples, the δ34Sgypsum, δ34Snative sulfur, and δ34Spyrite values range from −12 ‰ to −9 ‰, whereas for alunite, these range from +8 ‰ to +18 ‰. This indicates that alunite and pyrite in the 1895 CE eruption products were derived from the advanced argillic alteration and silicification zones that developed under Okama crater, which is exposed as the NGA. Estimated alteration temperatures based on the sulfur isotopic equilibrium between alunite and pyrite pairs are 200 °C–300 °C. By contrast, δ34Sgypsum values in the 1895 CE products are significantly higher than those in the NGA (which are derived from oxidation of pyrite or H2S, or both), ranging between an estimated parental fluid of δ34Sbulk-initial = ca. +1 ‰ and the Quaternary volcanic rocks of the Japan arc. This suggests that gypsum in the 1895 CE eruption products derived from magmatic vapor condensate (anhydrite) formed in the volcanic conduit during the eruption, thus becoming replacement of anhydrite by gypsum after or during the tephra deposition on the Zao summit surface. Our results on sulfur-bearing minerals provide new clues for better understanding (and monitoring) the syn-eruptive processes of volcanic eruptions focused on subvolcanic hydrothermal systems.

Mercury in aquatic ecosystems of two indigenous communities in the Piedmont Ecuadorian Amazon: evidence from fish, water, and sediments

Mercury is a highly toxic element present in water, soil, air, and biota. Anthropogenic activities, such as burning fossil fuels, mining, and deforestation, contribute to the presence and mobilization of mercury between environmental compartments. Although current research on mercury pathways has advanced our understanding of the risks associated with human exposure, limited information exists for remote areas with high diversity of fauna, flora, and indigenous communities. This study aims to deepen our understanding of the presence of total mercury in water, sediments, and fish, within aquatic ecosystems of two indigenous territories: Gomataon (Waorani Nationality) and Sinangoé (Ai´Cofán Nationality) in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Our findings indicate that, for most fish (91.5%), sediment (100%) and water (95.3%) samples, mercury levels fall under international limits. For fish, no significant differences in mercury levels were detected between the two communities. However, eight species exceeded recommended global limits, and one surpassed the threshold according to Ecuadorian legislation. Piscivore and omnivore fish exhibited the highest concentrations of total mercury among trophic guilds. Only one water sample from each community’s territory exceeded these limits. Total mercury in sediments exhibited greater concentrations in Gomataon than Sinangoé. Greater levels of mercury in sediments were associated with the occurrence of total organic carbon. Considering that members of the communities consume the analyzed fish, an interdisciplinary approach, including isotopic analysis, methylmercury sampling in humans, and mercury monitoring over time, is imperative for a detailed risk assessment of mercury exposure in Amazonian communities.

Predicting global geographical distribution and latitudinal suitability gradient for light brown apple moth

Epiphyas postvittana, commonly known as the light brown apple moth (LBAM), is native to Australia and has a restricted global distribution. Its polyphagous nature and the recent surge in interceptions have emphasized the need for focused risk assessments to guide effective measures to curb the entry of this pest into new countries. This study aimed to perform a detailed global invasion risk assessment using an optimized MaxEnt model that incorporated 19 bioclimatic variables and elevation. The predictive outcomes underscored the significance of key variables, specifically the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19), in shaping the potential geographical distribution of LBAM. Regions beyond the existing range, including the southeastern United States, southern Brazil, eastern Argentina, Uruguay, southern Chile, and various Western European countries, were identified as susceptible to invasion and establishment by LBAM. An increase in suitability was observed above 45°N and 40°S under future climate scenario. With respect to climate change, LBAM would expand its potential range in Western Europe and the United States, especially under SSP5-8.5, in the 2050s. An upward trend in the latitudinal suitability gradient for LBAM in mid-high latitude areas implies that amid changing climate conditions, LBAM may find favorable habitats in these regions. For countries and regions with invasion risk, it is imperative to implement corresponding inspections and quarantine measures to thwart the introduction of LBAM, particularly in countries with established trade ties with invaded regions.