Pig Density Research Articles

38 Pig survival: Current state of the US swine industry

Abstract Pig survivability stands as a formidable challenge for the United States Swine Industry, constituting both the foremost economic hurdle and a prominent sustainability concern. The economic dimension of this challenge has been accentuated by escalating production costs driven by the surge in feed inputs, labor expenses, and other variable cost increments. Current estimations of birth-to-market survivability, ranging from 60% to 85%, underscore the urgency of addressing this multifaceted issue, with sow livability varying from 70% to 90%, contingent upon the data source and housing system (e.g., Prop-12, Open Pen Gestation; Ross et al., 2019). This presentation delves into the intricate web of factors contributing to the decline in survivability, encompassing genetic influences, heightened disease pressures, biosecurity concerns linked to pig density, evolving management practices, and the aging infrastructure of facilities. While extensive research has been dedicated to each of these facets, advancements in swine survivability remain constrained, with some indicators suggesting a troubling increase in challenges. The presentation seeks to offer a comprehensive review of the current state of swine industry survivability, elucidating the persistent challenges and, crucially, identifying untapped areas of opportunity. By navigating through the complex landscape of economic constraints, environmental considerations, and technological interventions, the symposium aims to provide insights that can guide the industry towards innovative solutions, fostering a more resilient and sustainable future for the United States Swine Industry.

A combined methodological approach to characterize pig farming and its influence on the occurrence of interactions between wild boars and domestic pigs in Corsican micro-regions.

The pig sector in Corsica is based by a wide range of farming systems, mainly characterized on traditional extensive practices, which favor contacts between domestic and wild individuals. These contacts are suspected to influence the maintenance and the transmission of shared infectious diseases between both populations. Therefore, it is important to develop methods that allow to understand and anticipate their occurrence. Modeling these interactions requires accurate data on the presence, location and use of land on pig farms and farming practices, but such data are often unavailable, incomplete or outdated. In this study, we suggest a method to collect and analyze pig farming information that combines approaches from social sciences and epidemiology and enables a spatial representation of an index of potential interaction (IPI) between wild and domestic pigs at municipality level in the Corsican territory. As a first step of the process, interviews were conducted to gather information from 103 pig farms. Then, using hierarchical clustering, we identified five different clusters of pig farming practices which were evaluated and validated by local experts using participatory tools. The five pig farming clusters with their respective estimated levels of direct and indirect interactions with wild boars were combined in a linear equation with pig density to estimate a hypothetical index of potential interaction (IPI) in 155 municipalities. Our results revealed the diversity of pig farming practices across the island of Corsica and pointed out potential hotspots of interaction. Our method proved to be an effective way to collect and update information on the presence and typology of pig farms which has the potential to update official livestock production statistics. The spatial representation of an IPI between wild boars and domestic pigs in the Corsican territory could help design regional disease management strategies and policies to improve the control of certain shared pig pathogens in pig farms from Corsica.

What is known, unknown, and needed to be known about damage caused by wild pigs

AbstractDamage assessments provide evidence for initiating and evaluating management programs that protect natural resources and human livelihoods against invasive species. Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) cause extensive damage in their native and non-native ranges, but the extent of current damage and efficacy of management of the damage (i.e., population control of wild pigs, exclusion fencing, etc.) remains poorly described. We conducted a systematic review of physical damage caused by wild pigs to summarize what is known and identify knowledge gaps for damage assessment. Wild pig damage assessments have been overwhelmingly qualitative (84% of studies) and measured differently across studies, which prevents the determination of typical damage amounts to a particular resource and comparison across studies. Key priorities going forward are to standardize damage assessments quantitatively and measure population density (or index of such) of wild pigs concurrently with damage assessments to determine the relationship between damage and population levels. We provide a framework for inferring damage in new areas and assessing the benefits of management—to evaluate and optimize landscape-scale management programs. Overall, we recommend future studies strive for: (1) report the amount of damages in a standardized fashion (e.g., area damaged/area surveyed), (2) evaluate and report the amount of damage relative to the density of wild pigs, and (3) when reporting economic costs of damages incurred and management actions, describe the economic valuation method used along with the year of reference for the valuation. Capturing these elements are necessary steps to predict the benefits of management for an area with particular profile of resources and wild pig density, even in areas where damage assessments are not available. Meeting these criteria with allow for more generalizable results that can inform managers across the nearly global distribution of wild pigs.

Rapid recovery of invasive wild pig (Sus scrofa) populations following density reduction

Trapping is an effective strategy for control of invasive wild pig (Sus scrofa), but eradication of populations via trapping alone typically is impractical throughout much of the species’ introduced range. Consequently, recovery of wild pig populations to pre-trapping levels following control is a major impediment to success of long-term control. In this study, we conducted camera-trap surveys to monitor recovery of two wild pig populations immediately following density reductions achieved via trapping on two sites on the Savannah River Site, SC. We used spatial capture-recapture models to estimate wild pig density during seven 3 week periods spanning 12 months to: (1) determine the time required for populations to recover to pre-trapping levels; and (2) evaluate trends in population growth, density, and distribution during recovery. Recovery of both wild pig populations started immediately after trapping ceased, with populations reaching pre-trapping levels in 3 and 5 months. Threeweek population growth rates for each wild pig population during recovery averaged 1.28 (range = 1.11–1.39 on site 1) and 1.24 (range = 0.64–1.92 on site 2), which corresponded to a 345% and 132% increase in abundance (an increase of 141 and 126 individual wild pigs on site 1 and 2, respectively) of each population by the last survey period. Rapid recovery and growth beyond pre-trapping levels of wild pig populations likely were driven by residual wild pigs not removed by trapping and compensatory reproduction and immigration. Our study is one of the first to provide information on how quickly wild pig populations can recover following overall density reductions of 54–68% and indicates practitioners should be prepared to reinitiate trapping efforts in as little as 3 months to prevent recovery of wild pig populations following control.

Feral pig (Sus scrofa) disturbance facilitates establishment of resource‐acquisitive species in Hawaiian forest understories

Abstract Invasive mammals exert pervasive effects on vegetation communities in island systems through several pathways, including by introducing novel disturbances. In Hawai‘i, feral pigs pose a particular threat to endemic species that evolved in the absence of native ungulates. The effects of pig soil disturbance on understory vegetation are contingent on the distribution and density of disturbed patches and subsequent species responses influenced by traits conferring growth and reproductive strategies. However, little is known about how these traits influence native‐ non‐native species turnover in response to pig disturbance, or how such disturbances affect trait‐mediated responses to other environmental variables. Here we quantify the effects of leaf traits and dispersal attributes on species responses to pig soil disturbance at two spatial scales—0.5 m2 patches embedded along 20 m transects within sites—across a gradient of pig density in a Hawaiian montane wet forest using Bayesian mixed models. Native and non‐native species demonstrated divergent responses, with increasing presence and abundance of non‐native species in the understory as soil disturbance within patches and sites increased. Dominant patterns in measured traits tracked the leaf economic spectrum (LES), with non‐native species tending toward resource‐acquisitive traits. Species with resource‐acquisitive traits, regardless of identity, were favoured with disturbance and responded positively to light availability in disturbed sites. Models showed species primarily dispersed by wind were more prevalent in disturbed patches and sites than those dispersed by endozoochory, while seed mass had no effect. Our results suggest pig activity influences community composition and favours non‐native species establishment, and these effects are mediated in part by traits conferring rapid resource acquisition. We also show that the extent of disturbance at the site‐scale is relevant for the influence of leaf architecture on understory responses to light availability, demonstrating how the effects of disturbance are scale‐dependent and can influence species sorting along independent environmental gradients. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Dermatophytosis caused by Trichophyton mentagrophytes complex in organic pigs

BackgroundDermatophytosis (ringworm) caused by members of the Trichophyton mentagrophytes complex is rarely diagnosed in pigs but has been recognized as an increasingly common infection in humans. Further, resistance to antifungal drugs have been reported both in Asia and in Europe. This is the first scientific report of infection by the T. mentagrophytes complex in pigs in the Nordic countries.Case presentationSkin lesions developed in grower pigs in an organic fattening pig farm with outdoor production and following laboratory analyses, dermatophytosis caused by members of the T. mentagrophytes complex was diagnosed. Infection was linked to poor hygiene, high humidity, and moderate outdoor temperatures, in combination with high pig density. A farm worker developed a skin lesion after close contact with affected pigs, which highlighted the zoonotic potential of porcine dermatophytosis. The dermatophytes may have originated from the herd supplying the growers where similar lesions occurred in pigs. Further, pigs from another organic fattening herd that received growers from the same supplier herd also developed dermatophytosis. The lesions healed without treatment as the housing conditions were improved. Isolation of affected pigs prevented spread to other pigsConclusionMembers of the T. mentagrophytes complex can cause ringworm in pigs. The fungi probably persist in the haircoat and may cause overt disease when environmental conditions promote growth of mycelia.

Epidemiological Characterization of African Swine Fever Dynamics in Ukraine, 2012-2023.

African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease, endemic to Africa, that causes high mortality when introduced into domestic pig populations. Since the emergence of p72-genotype II African swine fever virus (ASFV) in Georgia in 2007, an ASF epidemic has been spreading across Europe and many countries in Asia. The epidemic first reached Ukraine in 2012. To better understand the dynamics of spread of ASF in Ukraine, we analyzed spatial and temporal outbreak data reported in Ukraine between 2012 and mid-2023. The highest numbers of outbreaks were reported in 2017 (N = 163) and 2018 (N = 145), with overall peak numbers of ASF outbreaks reported in August (domestic pigs) and January (wild boars). While cases were reported from most of Ukraine, we found a directional spread from the eastern and northern borders towards the western and southern regions of Ukraine. Many of the early outbreaks (before 2016) were adjacent to the border, which is again true for more recent outbreaks in wild boar, but not for recent outbreaks in domestic pigs. Outbreaks prior to 2016 also occurred predominantly in areas with a below average domestic pig density. This new analysis suggests that wild boars may have played an important role in the introduction and early spread of ASF in Ukraine. However, in later years, the dynamic suggests human activity as the predominant driver of spread and a separation of ASF epizootics between domestic pigs and in wild boars. The decline in outbreaks since 2019 suggests that the implemented mitigation strategies are effective, even though long-term control or eradication remain challenging and will require continued intensive surveillance of ASF outbreak patterns.

Assessing whole-sounder removal versus traditional control for reducing invasive wild pig (Sus scrofa) populations.

Trapping is commonly used as the primary management tool in attempts to reduce invasive wild pigs (Sus scrofa), but traditional trapping techniques are often ineffective. However, recently developed traps permit the capture of entire social groups (sounders) of wild pigs, and the strategy of whole-sounder removal may achieve more effective control. Our objective was to experimentally compare traditional control (TC; primarily traditional trapping, but including hunting with dogs, and opportunistic shooting) and whole-sounder removal (WSR) strategies by assessing density reduction and removal rate after 1 and 2 years of treatment. After 1 year of trapping, average wild pig density on WSR units declined 53% and remained stable after the second year, whereas on TC units, pig density did not differ after trapping, although it declined 33% and remained stable after the second year of trapping. The median removal rate (percentage of uniquely marked pigs present at the beginning of each year that were removed) was 42.5% for WSR units and 0.0% for TC units during 2018 and were 29.6% from WSR units and 5.3% from TC units during 2019. WSR removal was more effective at reducing wild pig density than TC, but factors such as previous exposure of this population to traditional traps and the lack of barriers to recolonization from surrounding areas may have reduced WSR efficacy. WSR can effectively reduce wild pig density to a greater extent than TC, but managers should recognize the additional time and expense necessary for implementation. Published 2023. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Streptococcus suis causes bacterial meningitis with hearing loss in patients without direct exposure to pigs in a regional pork industry territory

<i>Streptococcus suis</i> (<i>S. suis</i>) is an emerging zoonotic pathogen that causes bacterial meningitis in humans. <i>S. suis</i> is an encapsulated gram-positive facultative anaerobic bacterium and is an important pathogen in pigs. This infectious disease usually manifests in humans as meningitis, endocarditis, septicemia, and arthritis. Most cases originate in Southeast Asia, and human <i>S. suis</i> infections are often reported in countries with a high density of pigs. Meningitis is a common clinical manifestation of <i>S. suis</i> infection. Moreover, hearing loss is a common complication that can be bilateral, profound, and/or permanent. This report presents two cases of bacterial meningitis and hearing loss caused by <i>S. suis</i> in patients without a history of direct exposure to pigs in an intensive pork industry region.

One Health Surveillance Highlights Circulation of Viruses with Zoonotic Potential in Bats, Pigs, and Humans in Viet Nam.

A One Health cross-sectoral surveillance approach was implemented to screen biological samples from bats, pigs, and humans at high-risk interfaces for zoonotic viral spillover for five viral families with zoonotic potential in Viet Nam. Over 1600 animal and human samples from bat guano harvesting sites, natural bat roosts, and pig farming operations were tested for coronaviruses (CoVs), paramyxoviruses, influenza viruses, filoviruses and flaviviruses using consensus PCR assays. Human samples were also tested using immunoassays to detect antibodies against eight virus groups. Significant viral diversity, including CoVs closely related to ancestors of pig pathogens, was detected in bats roosting at the human-animal interfaces, illustrating the high risk for CoV spillover from bats to pigs in Viet Nam, where pig density is very high. Season and reproductive period were significantly associated with the detection of bat CoVs, with site-specific effects. Phylogeographic analysis indicated localized viral transmission among pig farms. Our limited human sampling did not detect any known zoonotic bat viruses in human communities living close to the bat cave and harvesting bat guano, but our serological assays showed possible previous exposure to Marburg virus-like (Filoviridae), Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus-like (Bunyaviridae) viruses and flaviviruses. Targeted and coordinated One Health surveillance helped uncover this viral pathogen emergence hotspot.

Co‐occurrence of native white‐tailed deer and invasive wild pigs: Evidence for competition?

AbstractUnderstanding whether invasive and native species compete for shared resources where they co‐occur is essential for mitigating the negative impacts of invasive species on native ecosystems. Here, we examined how the presence and density of an invasive species, wild pigs (Sus scrofa), affect native white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus; hereafter, deer) on the Savannah River Site, SC, USA. We examined potential changes in deer areas of use, temporal overlap, and occupancy to evaluate the effects of wild pig occurrence and density on deer space use, diel activity, and co‐occurrence with wild pigs across 9 months during 2018 and 2019. Wild pig density had the strongest effect on deer space use in high‐ and moderate‐use areas. Declines in deer space use in response to wild pig density were most pronounced in March and October 2018 and April 2019 for females, while male space use declined in response to wild pig density in October and December 2018. Both species were largely nocturnal with high overlap in diel activity across months. Deer occupancy responses to wild pig density varied across months, with negative responses in May and October 2018 and positive responses in July 2018 and April 2019. Deer and wild pigs co‐occurred at 30%–59% of camera stations across months, with broadscale co‐occurrence patterns being unaffected by changes in shared cover or wild pig occurrence. Overall, our results suggest that deer make fine‐scale behavioral adjustments to avoid wild pigs, providing evidence that competition is likely occurring even where wild pig density is relatively low. Such fine‐scale behavioral plasticity in deer appears to mitigate the costs of competition with wild pigs and may be a mechanism enabling long‐term co‐existence of deer and wild pigs. Our study provides novel insight on the complexities of spatiotemporal relationships between invasive wild pigs and native deer and suggests that the negative effects of interactions between deer and wild pigs may be more pronounced when deer life history needs are particularly demanding. In areas where eradication of invasive wild pigs may be impossible, maintaining low wild pig densities may help mitigate, but may not eliminate, the negative effects of wild pigs on deer.

A Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Model to Estimate the Distribution of Bushpigs on Madagascar and Its Implications for African Swine Fever

Bushpigs (Potamochoerus larvatus) play a major role in the socio-ecosystem of Madagascar, particularly in rural areas. They are largely hunted by rural populations as a major source of income and protein. They can also represent a potential source of pathogens for domestic animals and people. For example, it is hypothesized that bushpigs might compromise African swine fever (ASF) eradication programs by sporadically transmitting the virus to domestic pigs. However, available knowledge on the distribution of bushpigs in Madagascar is limited. In this study, we estimated the distribution of bushpigs on Madagascar using a species distribution model (SDM). We retrieved 206 sightings of bushpigs in Madagascar during 1990–2016 and predicted the distribution by using 37 climatic, geographic, and agricultural/human variables related to the presence of bushpigs and running a presence-background maximum entropy SDM. Our model identified three main areas with a high suitability for bushpigs: in the north, central-western, and east of the island (AUC = 0.84). The main contributors to the model were the vegetation index (51.3%), percentage of land covered by trees (17.6%), and annual averaged monthly precipitation (12.6%). In addition, we identified areas in central Madagascar with a high density of domestic pigs and a high suitability score for bushpigs. These results may help to identify bushpig areas at the interface with domestic pigs to assess the risk of pathogen transmission and to design ecological assessments, wildlife management studies, or targeted surveillance and research studies related to many bushpig-borne pathogens, such as ASF, which is an endemic problem in the country, as well as zoonotic diseases such as cysticercosis and hepatitis E. Our approach could also be extrapolated to other species of wild swine in other countries.

Spatial and temporal distribution of Taenia solium and its risk factors in Uganda

ObjectivesThe lack of subnational mapping of the zoonotic cestode Taenia solium in endemic countries presents a major challenge to achieving intensified T. solium control milestones, as outlined in the “World Health Organization neglected tropical disease roadmap by 2030”. We conducted a mapping study in Uganda, considered to be endemic, to identify subnational high-risk areas. MethodsT. solium prevalence data, adjusted for diagnostic sensitivity and specificity in a Bayesian framework, were identified through a systematic review. Spatial autocorrelation and interpolation techniques were used to transform demographic and health survey cluster-level sanitation and poverty indicators, overlaid onto a pig density map for Uganda into modelled porcine cysticercosis (PCC) risk maps. ResultsA total of 16 articles (n = 11 PCC and n = 5 human cysticercosis (HCC) and/or human taeniasis) were included in the final analysis. The observed HCC prevalence ranged from 0.01% to 6.0% (confidence interval range: 0.004-11.4%), whereas the adjusted PCC ranged from 0.3 to 93.9% (uncertainty interval range: 0-99.8%). There was substantial variation in the modelled PCC risk factors and prevalence across Uganda and over time. ConclusionThe high PCC prevalence and moderate HCC exposure estimates indicate the need for urgent implementation of T. solium control efforts in Uganda.

REGIONAL CHANGES IN THE PIG POPULATION IN POLAND IN 2010-2022

The aim of the study was to assess regional changes in pig and sow population in 2010-2022. The analysis was carried out at the voivodship level for the entire period under study, while changes in pig and sow population in poviats were based on agricultural census data for 2010 and 2020. The analysis showed a progressive regional concentration of pig and sow stock in Poland, as indicated by an increase in the share of the 62 and 93 poviats with the highest stock and the poviats with the highest density of pigs and sows using 20% and 30% of agricultural land in Poland by about 9 percentage points. However, there was no correlation of the level of pig and sow stocking in 2010 in individual poviats with changes in stocking rates by 2020. A large increase in stocking rates associated with the construction of industrial piggeries was recorded in a dozen poviats located mainly in the western and northern voivodships, where the largest number of State Agricultural Farms were located.

The different trends in the burden of neurological and mental disorders following dietary transition in China, the USA, and the world: An extension analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

The highly processed western diet is substituting the low-processed traditional diet in the last decades globally. Increasing research found that a diet with poor quality such as western diet disrupts gut microbiota and increases the susceptibility to various neurological and mental disorders, while a balanced diet regulates gut microbiota and prevents and alleviates the neurological and mental disorders. Yet, there is limited research on the association between the disease burden expanding of neurological and mental disorders with a dietary transition. We compared the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) trend by age for neurological and mental disorders in China, in the United States of America (USA), and across the world from 1990 to 2019, evaluated the dietary transition in the past 60 years, and analyzed the association between the burden trend of the two disorders with the changes in diet composition and food production. We identified an age-related upward pattern in disease burden in China. Compared with the USA and the world, the Chinese neurological and mental disorders DALY percent was least in the generation over 75 but rapidly increased in younger generations and surpassed the USA and/or the world in the last decades. The age-related upward pattern in Chinese disease burdens had not only shown in the presence of cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, and diabetes mellitus but also appeared in the presence of depressive disorders, Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, schizophrenia, headache disorders, anxiety disorders, conduct disorders, autism spectrum disorders, and eating disorders, successively. Additionally, the upward trend was associated with the dramatic dietary transition including a reduction in dietary quality and food production sustainability, during which the younger generation is more affected than the older. Following the increase in total calorie intake, alcohol intake, ratios of animal to vegetal foods, and poultry meat to pulses, the burdens of the above diseases continuously rose. Then, following the rise of the ratios of meat to pulses, eggs to pulses, and pork to pulses, the usage of fertilizers, the farming density of pigs, and the burdens of the above disease except diabetes mellitus were also ever-increasing. Even the usage of pesticides was positively correlated with the burdens of Parkinson's disease, schizophrenia, cardiovascular diseases, and neoplasms. Contrary to China, the corresponding burdens of the USA trended to reduce with the improvements in diet quality and food production sustainability. Our results suggest that improving diet quality and food production sustainability might be a promising way to stop the expanding burdens of neurological and mental disorders.

Estimating the spatial distribution of African swine fever outbreak in China by combining four regional-level spatial models.

The outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China are ongoing, and the inadequate management of the pig supply chain is criticized. In the past four years, a series of preventive and control measures have been supplied national wide, while the outbreaks haven't been terminated. This suggests the existing animal disease management at the district level may not be appropriate to control ASF under the current situation of the ASF outbreak in China. It is urgent to further describe real distribution areas of ASF in China. In this study, we combined four regional-scale models to predict the risk distribution of ASF in mainland China and identify risk factors related to ASF outbreaks. The results showed that the four regional-scale models were more accurate in predicting the ASF outbreaks than the nationwide scale model. The four regional-scale models identified the potential risk factors associated with ASF outbreaks, such as population density, pig density, land cover, temperature, and elevation factors. Moreover, seven clusters with high potential risk of ASF outbreaks were identified. Then, based on the results, we proposed more suitable prevention and control plans for ASF, which can assist the implementation of transport management policies within and between risk clusters.

Farm management practices, biosecurity and influenza a virus detection in swine farms: a comprehensive study in Colombia

Biosecurity protocols (BP) and good management practices are key to reduce the risk of introduction and transmission of infectious diseases into the pig farms. In this observational cross-sectional study, survey data were collected from 176 pig farms with inventories over 100 sows in Colombia. We analyzed a complex survey dataset to explore the structure and identify clustering patterns using Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) of swine farms in Colombia, and estimated its association with Influenza A virus detection. Two principal dimensions contributed to 27.6% of the dataset variation. Farms with highest contribution to dimension 1 were larger farrow-to-finish farms, using self-replacement of gilts and implementing most of the measures evaluated. In contrast, farms with highest contribution to dimension 2 were medium to large farrow-to-finish farms, but implemented biosecurity in a lower degree. Additionally, two farm clusters were identified by Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA), and the odds of influenza A virus detection was statistically different between clusters (OR 7.29, CI: 1.7,66, p = < 0.01). Moreover, after logistic regression analysis, three important variables were associated with higher odds of influenza detection: (1) “location in an area with a high density of pigs”, (2) “farm size”, and (3) “after cleaning and disinfecting, the facilities are allowed to dry before use”. Our results revealed two clustering patterns of swine farms. This systematic analysis of complex survey data identified relationships between biosecurity, husbandry practices and influenza status. This approach helped to identify gaps on biosecurity and key elements for designing successful strategies to prevent and control swine respiratory diseases in the swine industry.

Optimising response to an introduction of African swine fever in wild pigs.

African swine fever virus (ASFv) is a virulent pathogen that threatens domestic swine industries globally and persists in wild boar populations in some countries. Persistence in wild boar can challenge elimination and prevent disease-free status, making it necessary to address wild swine in proactive response plans. In the United States, invasive wild pigs are abundant and found across a wide range of ecological conditions that could drive different epidemiological dynamics among populations. Information on the size of the control areas required to rapidly eliminate the ASFv in wild pigs and how this area should change with management constraints and local ecology is needed to optimize response planning. We developed a spatially explicit disease transmission model contrasting wild pig movement and contact ecology in two ecosystems in Southeastern United States. We simulated ASFv spread and determined the optimal response area (reported as the radius of a circle) for eliminating ASFv rapidly over a range of detection times (when ASFv was detected relative to the true date of introduction), culling capacities (proportion of wild pigs in the culling zone removed weekly) and wild pig densities. Large radii for response areas (14km) were needed under most conditions but could be shortened with early detection (≤ 8 weeks) and high culling capacities (≥ 15% weekly). Under most conditions, the ASFv was eliminated in less than 22 weeks using optimal control radii, although ecological conditions with high rates of wild pig movement required higher culling capacities (≥ 10% weekly) for elimination within 1 year. The results highlight the importance of adjusting response plans based on local ecology and show that wild pig movement is a better predictor of the optimal response area than the number of ASFv cases early in the outbreak trajectory. Our framework provides a tool for determining optimal control plans in different areas, guiding expectations of response impacts, and planning resources needed for rapid elimination.

The impact of heavy precipitation and its impact modifiers on shigellosis occurrence during typhoon season in Taiwan: A case-crossover design

Because of climate change, heavy precipitation is likely to become frequent and intense, thereby increasing the risk of shigellosis occurrence. However, few studies examined the impact of heavy precipitation on shigellosis and its impact modifiers in developed countries. This study aims to analyze the association between heavy precipitation and shigellosis in Taiwan, and to identify the vulnerable population and impact modifiers. We adopted a case-crossover design, and used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for shigellosis occurrence. Information were collected on the daily shigellosis cases, precipitation, temperature, and typhoons from 1994 to 2015, and yearly data of medical resources and environmental factors were obtained at the city level from 1998 to 2015. Stratification analyses were performed by age, sex, medical resource, and environmental factors. We discovered that heavy precipitation ≥80 mm/day considerably increased the risk of shigellosis occurrence. The ORs of heavy rain (80 to <200 mm/day) were 2.08–2.26 at lags 0–1. The ORs of extremely heavy rain (≥200 mm/day) increased to 2.17–4.73 at lags 5–8. Moreover, the effect of heavy precipitation was greater under high temperature condition (≥23.6 °C). Adults were more susceptible to heavy-precipitation-associated shigellosis, especially the elderly. Males experienced marginally higher effects than females did. Moreover, cities with more medical resources and forest cover and higher percentage of completed storm sewers had lower effects; however, dense population and higher pig density were the risk factors. Although the high water-supply penetration rate did not decrease Shigella infection after heavy precipitation, it did lower the risk of typhoon-related shigellosis. In conclusion, hot temperature could enhance the impact of heavy precipitation on shigellosis. Public health interventions should be introduced according to the lag period after heavy precipitation, particularly in areas with high population density, proportion of elderly people, and pig density. The improvement of medical resources and tree cover as well as the construction of storm sewers and piped water systems might be mitigation measures that can be considered.

Modelling Japanese encephalitis virus transmission dynamics and human exposure in a Cambodian rural multi-host system

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a vector-borne zoonosis and the leading cause of human viral encephalitis in Asia. Its transmission cycle is usually described as involving wild birds as reservoirs and pigs as amplifying hosts. JE is endemic in Cambodia, where it circulates in areas with low pig densities (<70 pigs per km2), and could be maintained in a multi-host system composed of pigs, but also poultry as competent hosts, and dogs, cattle and humans as non-competent hosts. We used a mathematical model representing Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) transmission in a traditional Cambodian village that we calibrated with field data collected in 3 districts of Kandal province, Cambodia. First, R0 calculations allowed us to assess the capacity of the epidemiological system to be invaded by JEV and sustain virus transmission in villages in the 3 districts, and we predicted human exposure at the epidemiological equilibrium, based on simulations. Changes in spatial density of livestock, in agricultural practices, and epizootics (e.g., African swine fever), can profoundly alter the composition of host communities, which could affect JEV transmission and its impact on human health. In a second step, we then used the model to analyse how host community composition affected R0 and the predicted human exposure. Lastly, we evaluated the potential use of dog JE seroprevalence as an indicator of human exposure to JEV. In the modeled villages, the calculated R0 ranged from 1.07 to 1.38. Once the equilibrium reached, predicted annual probability of human exposure ranged from 9% to 47%, and predicted average age at infection was low, between 2 and 11 years old, highlighting the risk of severe forms of JEV infection and the need to intensify child immunization. According to the model, increasing the proportion of competent hosts induced a decrease in age at infection. The simulations also showed that JEV could invade a multi-host system with no pigs, reinforcing the assumption of poultry acting as reservoirs. Finally, the annual human exposure probability appeared linearly correlated with dog seroprevalence, suggesting that in our specific study area, dog seroprevalence would be a good proxy for human exposure.