Dengue Vaccine Efficacy Trials Research Articles

Neutralizing antibody correlates of sequence specific dengue disease in a tetravalent dengue vaccine efficacy trial in Asia

In the CYD14 trial of the CYD-TDV dengue vaccine in 2–14 year-olds, neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers to the vaccine-insert dengue strains correlated inversely with symptomatic, virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD). Also, vaccine efficacy against VCD was higher against dengue prM/E amino acid sequences closer to the vaccine inserts. We integrated the nAb and sequence data types by assessing nAb titers as a correlate of sequence-specific VCD separately in the vaccine arm and in the placebo arm. In both vaccine and placebo recipients the correlation of nAb titer with sequence-specific VCD was stronger for dengue nAb contact site sequences closer to the vaccine (p = 0.005 and p = 0.012, respectively). The risk of VCD in vaccine (placebo) recipients was 6.7- (1.80)-fold lower at the 90th vs 10th percentile of nAb for viruses perfectly matched to CYD-TDV, compared to 2.1- (0.78)-fold lower at the 90th vs 10th percentile for viruses with five amino acid mismatches. The evidence for a stronger sequence-distance dependent correlate of risk for the vaccine arm indicates departure from the Prentice criteria for a valid sequence-distance specific surrogate endpoint and suggests that the nAb marker may affect dengue risk differently depending on whether nAbs arise from infection or also by vaccination. However, when restricting to baseline-seropositive 9–14 year-olds, the correlation pattern became more similar between the vaccine and placebo arms, supporting nAb titers as an approximate surrogate endpoint in this population. No sequence-specific nAb titer correlates of VCD were seen in baseline-seronegative participants. Integrated immune response/pathogen sequence data correlates analyses could help increase knowledge of correlates of risk and surrogate endpoints for other vaccines against genetically diverse pathogens.Trial registration: EU Clinical Trials Register 2014-001708-24; registration date 2014-05-26.

Analysis of Neutralizing Antibodies as a Correlate of Instantaneous Risk of Hospitalized Dengue in Placebo Recipients of Dengue Vaccine Efficacy Trials.

In the CYD14 (NCT01373281) and CYD15 (NCT01374516) dengue vaccine efficacy trials, month 13 neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers correlated inversely with risk of symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) between month 13 (1 month after final dose) and month 25. We assessed nAb titer as a correlate of instantaneous risk of hospitalized VCD (HVCD), for which participants were continually surveilled for 72 months. Using longitudinal nAb titers from the per-protocol immunogenicity subsets, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) of HVCD by current nAb titer value for 3 correlate/endpoint pairs: average titer across all 4 serotypes/HVCD of any serotype (HVCD-Any), serotype-specific titer/homologous HVCD, and serotype-specific titer/heterologous HVCD. Baseline-seropositive placebo recipients with higher average titer had lower instantaneous risk of HVCD-Any in 2- to 16-year-olds and in 9- to 16-year-olds (HR, 0.26 or 0.15 per 10-fold increase in average titer by 2 methods [95% confidence interval {CI}, .14-.45 and .07-.34, respectively]) pooled across both trials. Results were similar for homologous HVCD. There was evidence suggesting increased HVCD-Any risk in participants with low average titer (1:10 to 1:100) compared to seronegative participants (HR, 1.85 [95% CI, .93-3.68]). Natural infection-induced nAbs were inversely associated with hospitalized dengue, upon exceeding a relatively low threshold.

Analysis of Hospitalized and Severe Dengue Cases Over the 6 years of Follow-up of the Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine (CYD-TDV) Efficacy Trials in Asia and Latin America.

BackgroundCYD-TDV, a live, attenuated, tetravalent dengue vaccine, has been approved for the prevention of symptomatic dengue in previously dengue exposed individuals. This post hoc analysis assessed hospitalized and severe virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) over the complete 6-year follow-up of 3 CYD-TDV efficacy studies (CYD14, CYD15, and CYD23/CYD57).MethodsThe main outcomes were hazard ratios (HRs) for hospitalized or severe VCD by baseline dengue serostatus, focusing on those who were seropositive, and by age at immunization (<9 years/≥9 years). Baseline dengue serostatus was measured or inferred using several methods. Hospitalized VCD cases were characterized in terms of clinical signs and symptoms and wild-type viremia level. Antibody persistence was assessed up to 5 years after the last injection.ResultsIn those aged ≥9 years and baseline seropositive, CYD-TDV protected against hospitalized and severe VCD over 6 years compared to placebo (HR [95% confidence interval] multiple imputation from month 0 method, .19 [.12–.30] and .15 [.06–.39]; other methods were consistent). Vaccine protection was observed over the different study periods, being highest during the first 2 years. Evidence for a decreased risk of hospitalized and severe VCD was also observed in seropositive participants aged 6–8 years. Clinical signs and symptoms, and quantified dengue viremia from participants with hospitalized VCD were comparable between groups.ConclusionsCYD-TDV demonstrated robust protection against hospitalized and severe VCD over the entire 6-year follow-up in participants who were seropositive and ≥9 years old. Protection was also observed in seropositive 6–8 year-olds.Clinical Trials Registration: NCT00842530, NCT01983553, NCT01373281, NCT01374516.

Change Point Inference in the Presence of Missing Covariates for Principal Surrogate Evaluation in Vaccine Trials.

We consider the use of threshold-based regression models for evaluating immune response biomarkers as principal surrogate markers of a vaccine's protective effect. Threshold-based regression models, which allow the relationship between a clinical outcome and a covariate to change dramatically across a threshold value in the covariate, have been studied by various authors under fully observed data. Limited research, however, has examined these models in the presence of missing covariates, such as the counterfactual potential immune responses of a participant in the placebo arm of a standard vaccine trial had s/he been assigned to the vaccine arm instead. Based on a hinge model for a threshold effect of the principal surrogate on vaccine efficacy, we develop a regression methodology that consists of two components: (1) The estimated likelihood method is employed to handle missing potential outcomes, and (2) a penalty is imposed on the estimated likelihood to ensure satisfactory finite sample performance. We develop a method that allows joint estimation of all model parameters as well as a two-step method that separates the estimation of the threshold parameter from the rest of the parameters. Stable iterative algorithms are developed to implement the two methods and the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. In simulation studies, the proposed estimators are shown to have satisfactory finite sample performance. The proposed methods are applied to analyze a real dataset collected from dengue vaccine efficacy trials to predict how vaccine efficacy varies with an individual's potential immune response if receiving vaccine.

Evaluation of treatment effect modification by biomarkers measured pre- and post-randomization in the presence of non-monotone missingness.

In vaccine studies, an important research question is to study effect modification of clinical treatment efficacy by intermediate biomarker-based principal strata. In settings where participants entering a trial may have prior exposure and therefore variable baseline biomarker values, clinical treatment efficacy may further depend jointly on a biomarker measured at baseline and measured at a fixed time after vaccination. This makes it important to conduct a bivariate effect modification analysis by both the intermediate biomarker-based principal strata and the baseline biomarker values. Existing research allows this assessment if the sampling of baseline and intermediate biomarkers follows a monotone pattern, i.e., if participants who have the biomarker measured post-randomization would also have the biomarker measured at baseline. However, additional complications in study design could happen in practice. For example, in a dengue correlates study, baseline biomarker values were only available from a fraction of participants who have biomarkers measured post-randomization. How to conduct the bivariate effect modification analysis in these studies remains an open research question. In this article, we propose approaches for bivariate effect modification analysis in the complicated sampling design based on an estimated likelihood framework. We demonstrate advantages of the proposed method over existing methods through numerical studies and illustrate our method with data sets from two phase 3 dengue vaccine efficacy trials.

Simultaneous Inference of Treatment Effect Modification by Intermediate Response Endpoint Principal Strata with Application to Vaccine Trials.

In randomized clinical trials, researchers are often interested in identifying an inexpensive intermediate study endpoint (typically a biomarker) that is a strong effect modifier of the treatment effect on a longer-term clinical endpoint of interest. Motivated by randomized placebo-controlled preventive vaccine efficacy trials, within the principal stratification framework a pseudo-score type estimator has been proposed to estimate disease risks conditional on the counter-factual biomarker of interest under each treatment assignment to vaccine or placebo, yielding an estimator of biomarker conditional vaccine efficacy. This method can be used for trial designs that use baseline predictors of the biomarker and/or designs that vaccinate disease-free placebo recipients at the end of the trial. In this article, we utilize the pseudo-score estimator to estimate the biomarker conditional vaccine efficacy adjusting for baseline covariates. We also propose a perturbation resampling method for making simultaneous inference on conditional vaccine efficacy over the values of the biomarker. We illustrate our method with datasets from two phase 3 dengue vaccine efficacy trials.

Full-length next-generation sequencing of HLA class I and II genes in a cohort from Thailand

The human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes are highly variable and are known to play an important role in disease outcomes, including infectious diseases. Prior knowledge of HLA polymorphisms in a population usually forms the basis for an effective case-control study design. As a prelude to future disease association analyses, we report HLA class I and II diversity in 334 unrelated donors from a Dengue vaccine efficacy trial conducted in Thailand. Long-range PCR amplification of six HLA loci was performed on DNA extracted from saliva samples. HLA-A, -B, -C, -DPB1, -DQB1 and -DRB1 were genotyped using a next-generation sequencing method presented at the 17th International HLA and Immunogenetics Workshop. In total, we identified 201 HLA alleles, including 35 HLA-A, 57 HLA-B, 28 HLA-C, 24 HLA-DPB1, 21 HLA-DQB1 and 36 HLA-DRB1 alleles. Very common HLA alleles with frequencies greater than 10 percent were A∗11:01:01, A∗33:03:01, A∗24:02:01, B∗46:01:01, C∗07:02:01, C∗01:02:01, C∗08:01:01, DPB1∗05:01:01, DPB1∗13:01:01, DPB1∗04:01:01, DPB1∗02:01:02, DQB1∗03:01:01, DQB1∗05:02:01, DQB1∗03:03:02, DRB1∗12:02:01, DRB1∗09:01:02, and DRB1∗15:02:01. A novel HLA allele, B∗15:450, had a non-synonymous substitution and occurred in more than one donor. Population-based full-length NGS HLA typing is more conclusive and provides a sound foundation for exploring disease association in a given population.

OR23 HLA class II genes correlate with protective neutralizing antibody titers in a dengue vaccine efficacy trial

Aim A tetravalent, live attenuated dengue vaccine demonstrated efficacy, safety and immunogenicity in several clinical trials in Asia and Latin America. Efficacy differed based on infecting serotypes, presence of pre-existing dengue neutralizing antibody (NAb) titers and age. HLA class II molecules expressed on antigen presenting cells mediate CD4+ T cell stimulation of antibody production by B cells involved in vaccine-induced responses. We hypothesized that the differences in observed vaccine efficacy could be due to variation in NAb immune responses in conjunction with host HLA class II genes. Methods Samples were available from a subset of subjects that took part in the first tetravalent dengue vaccine efficacy trial conducted in Thailand. DNA was extracted from 335 saliva samples and HLA genotyping was performed using next-generation sequencing (NGS) of full-length genes. A panel of ancestry informative markers (AIMs) was genotyped to assess population stratification. Serotype-specific NAb titers were measured by plaque-reduction neutralization test 28 days after last injection. The association of NAb titers and HLA class II on dengue infection was tested by logistic regression. Linear regression was used to test association of HLA class II alleles with NAb levels after accounting for sex, age, and serotype as covariates. A minimal false discovery rate to account for multiple comparisons, with a two-sided p-value Results NGS identified 197 HLA class I and II alleles in the Thai Dengue vaccine trial. AIMs analysis did not identify population stratification comparing cases and controls. Magnitude of NAb levels post vaccination was significantly higher in the presence of HLA-DRB1*11 (p = 0.002, q = 0.08). HLA-DPB1*03:01 and *05:01 presence correlated with pre-existing NAb titers in the placebos (p = 0.005, q = 0.09; p = 0.001, q = 0.04). We did not observe a direct effect of HLA on dengue infection in either the placebo or treatment arm. Conclusions These findings suggest that specific HLA class II alleles modulate protective NAb titers in dengue infection. This is an exploratory study to identify signals to replicate in other dengue vaccine clinical studies. Understanding this HLA class II mechanism will enable improved vaccine design.

Assessment of benefits and risks associated with dengue vaccination at the individual and population levels: a dynamic modeling approach

ABSTRACTBackground: A case-cohort study, using a novel assay and data from three dengue vaccine efficacy trials, highlighted differences in vaccination outcomes according to baseline serostatus. Based on these results, we explored, with a model, the benefits and risks associated with vaccination.Research design and methods: Parameters of a previously developed transmission model were estimated with subject-level data from a case-cohort study. The model was used to assess vaccination outcomes for a range of transmission settings over 5–30 years, with or without indirect protection.Main outcome measures: Symptomatic dengue cases, dengue hospitalizations, and severe dengue cases.Results: The model is consistent with previous results indicating a transitory period at increased risk for dengue-seronegative vaccine recipients (setting-dependent duration) and long-term benefits for dengue-seropositive recipients. At the population level, benefits to seropositive individuals over 10 years outweighed the risk to those seronegative in moderate to high transmission settings (≥50% seropositivity at age 9), especially in high transmission settings (no excess hospitalizations in dengue-seronegative for ≥80% seropositivity at age 9). Results were more favorable when longer time horizons or indirect protection were considered.Conclusions: Results indicate a public health benefit associated with dengue vaccination especially in high-transmission settings, even with the initial excess risks to dengue-seronegative patients which diminish over time.

Estimation of the optimal surrogate based on a randomized trial.

A common scientific problem is to determine a surrogate outcome for a long-term outcome so that future randomized studies can restrict themselves to only collecting the surrogate outcome. We consider the setting that we observe n independent and identically distributed observations of a random variable consisting of baseline covariates, a treatment, a vector of candidate surrogate outcomes at an intermediate time point, and the final outcome of interest at a final time point. We assume the treatment is randomized, conditional on the baseline covariates. The goal is to use these data to learn a most-promising surrogate for use in future trials for inference about a mean contrast treatment effect on the final outcome. We define an optimal surrogate for the current study as the function of the data generating distribution collected by the intermediate time point that satisfies the Prentice definition of a valid surrogate endpoint and that optimally predicts the final outcome: this optimal surrogate is an unknown parameter. We show that this optimal surrogate is a conditional mean and present super-learner and targeted super-learner based estimators, whose predicted outcomes are used as the surrogate in applications. We demonstrate a number of desirable properties of this optimal surrogate and its estimators, and study the methodology in simulations and an application to dengue vaccine efficacy trials.

Detection of dengue cases by serological testing in a dengue vaccine efficacy trial: Utility for efficacy evaluation and impact of future vaccine introduction

BackgroundDengue diagnosis confirmation and surveillance are widely based on serological assays to detect anti-dengue IgM or IgG antibodies since such tests are affordable/user-friendly. The World Health Organization identified serological based diagnosis as a potential tool to define probable dengue cases in the context of vaccine trials, while acknowledging that this may have to be interpreted with caution. MethodsIn a phase IIb randomized, placebo-controlled trial assessing the efficacy of a tetravalent dengue vaccine (CYD-TDV) in Thai schoolchildren, case definition was based on virological confirmation by either serotype-specific RT-PCRs or by NS1-antigen ELISA (Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00842530). Here, we characterized suspected dengue cases using IgM and IgG ELISA to assess their utility in evaluating probable dengue cases in the context of vaccine efficacy trials, comparing virologically-confirmed and serologically diagnosed dengue in the vaccine and placebo groups. Serologically probable cases were defined as: (1) IgM positive acute- or convalescent-phase samples, or (2) IgG positive acute-phase sample and ≥4-fold IgG increase between acute and convalescent-phase samples. ResultsSerological diagnosis had good sensitivity (97.1%), but low specificity (85.1%) compared to virological confirmation. A high level of false positivity through serology diagnosis particularly in the 2 months post-vaccination was observed, and is most likely related to detection of the immune response to the dengue vaccine. This lack of specificity and bias with vaccination demonstrates the limitation of using IgM and IgG antibody responses to explore vaccine efficacy. ConclusionReliance on serological assessments would lead to a significant number of false positives during routine clinical practice and surveillance following the introduction of the dengue vaccine.

Prospective cohort study with active surveillance for fever in four dengue endemic countries in Latin America.

To prepare for a Phase III dengue vaccine efficacy trial, 20 investigational sites were selected for this observational study to identify dengue infections in a closed cohort (N = 3,000 children 9–16 years of age). Of 255 acute febrile episodes experienced by 235 children, 50 (21.3%) were considered serologically probable dengue, and 18 (7.7%) were considered virologically confirmed (i.e., dengue NS1 antigen positive) dengue cases. Considering the disease-free and at-risk period from study start to onset of symptoms, the overall incidence density of acute febrile episodes was 17.7 per 100 person-years of follow-up, ranging from 15.3 in Colombia to 22.0 in Puerto Rico. This study showed that all sites were capable of capturing and following up acute febrile episodes within a specific timeframe among the established cohort and to detect dengue cases.

Dengue human infection model: introduction.

Dengue human infection model: introduction.

Call to Action for Dengue Vaccine Failure

Call to Action for Dengue Vaccine Failure

Dengue vaccine efficacy trial: does interference cause failure?

Live-attenuated vaccines replicate at low concentrations and elicit protective immunity without causing disease. This strategy has proven to be successful when the vaccine targets one pathogen, as is the case for vaccines against yellow fever and Japanese encephalitis viruses. 1 Gubler DJ Kuno G Markoff L Flaviviruses. in: Knipe DM Howley PM Fields Virology. 5th edn. Wolters Kluwer and Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Philadelphia2007: 1153-1252 Google Scholar Translation of this straightforward idea to target dengue has proven frustrating, because dengue is a complex flaviviral disease that is caused by not one, but four antigenically distinct dengue viruses (DENV-1, 2, 3, and 4). Extension of the live-attenuated vaccine approach to dengue by mixing four monovalent attenuated dengue vaccine viruses into a tetravalent formulation was assessed by investigators at Mahidol University, Thailand, in a tetravalent dengue live-attenuated vaccine trial. 2 Kanesa-thasan N Sun W Kim-Ahn G et al. Safety and immunogenicity of attenuated dengue virus vaccines (Aventis Pasteur) in human volunteers. Vaccine. 2001; 19: 3179-3188 Crossref PubMed Scopus (192) Google Scholar With this approach, viral interference was reported, in which antibody responses to particular dengue serotypes were reduced or obliterated.

Assessing the interest to participate in a dengue vaccine efficacy trial among residents of Puerto Rico

Dengue, endemic in Puerto Rico, is a major public health problem. Vaccines are thought the best means to prevent dengue because vector control alone has been largely ineffective. We implemented qualitative studies in 2006 and 2010 to determine the acceptability of conducting placebo-controlled dengue vaccine efficacy trials in Puerto Rican children. Key informant interviews and focus groups with parents and children were conducted in municipalities with high dengue incidence. We used structured open-ended questions to determine motivators and attitudes regarding vaccine trial participation. Knowledge about dengue risk and prevention, and knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs regarding vaccines and vaccine trials were assessed. Using grounded theory, we conducted content analysis and established categories and sub-categories of participant responses. All participants were knowledgeable about dengue prevention and perceived children as most affected age groups. Participants were aware of vaccines benefits and they thought a vaccine could prevent dengue. However, most would not allow their children to participate in a placebo-controlled vaccine trial. Barriers included lack of trust in new vaccines and vaccine trial procedures; fear of developing dengue or side effects from the vaccine and lack of information about candidate dengue vaccines. Participants thought information, including results of previous trials might overcome barriers to participation. Motivators for participation were altruism, protection from dengue, free medical attention, and compensation for transportation and participation. Parents would consider children participation if accurate vaccine trial information is provided.

A prospective cohort study of dengue infection in schoolchildren in Long Xuyen, Viet Nam

A dynamic school-based cohort of 2-15 year-olds was established in Long Xuyen, Viet Nam to provide epidemiological data for a dengue vaccine efficacy trial. Active surveillance of febrile episodes identified clinically-suspected dengue and acute and convalescent sera were collected. IgG seroconversion between annual seroprevalence surveys identified sub-clinical infections. In 2004, 2190 children were enrolled with 3239, 3146, and 3081 present each year from 2005 to 2007 consecutively. In all, 627 children had a total of 690 clinically-suspected dengue episodes (394 hospitalisations, 296 outpatients) with 284-310 (41.2-45.0%) laboratory-confirmed depending on testing. Dengue serotype 2 was predominant in 2004 and 2005, and serotype 1 in 2006 and 2007. The acute dengue disease incidence rate per 1000 person-years ranged from 16.9 in 2005 to 40.4 in 2007. The average annual incidence of primary dengue infection (IgG seroconversion in previously naïve children) was 11.4% and the symptomatic to asymptomatic primary infection ratio ranged from 1:3-1:6. Study withdrawal rate, a feasibility indicator for conducting efficacy trials, was low: 4.2% per year when excluding children who changed schools. Our 2004-2007 results confirm the high transmission of dengue in children in Long Xuyen and demonstrate the suitability of this study site for a large scale efficacy trial.

Laboratory assays and field dengue vaccine evaluation at Ratchaburi province, Thailand: a preliminary result

Laboratory-based epidemiological studies have been initiated in a cohort of school-aged children in Ratchaburi province, Thailand in preparation for imminent dengue vaccine field trials. In these studies, levels of neutralising antibodies were determined by the plaque reduction neutralisation test (PRNT) while virological confirmation was performed using RT-PCR or mosquito inoculation. Serological confirmation was performed using IgM and IgG ELISA. The incidence rate of dengue in the Ratchaburi cohort was 1635 per 100,000 during 2005–2006. Among 3547 patients in this cohort, 331 were classified with febrile disease and 58 with dengue. All four dengue serotypes were observed in Ratchaburi province. Efforts to identify the infecting serotype in symptomatic patients, based solely upon the neutralising antibody response, were complicated by cross- neutralising antibodies. In addition, 20 symptomatic and 49 asymptomatic cases were identified among 897 subjects investigated during 2005–2006, a ratio of 1:2.5. Serological analysis of asymptomatic dengue infections demonstrated boosting of immune responses due to subclinical infections with dengue or Japanese encephalitis. These results demonstrate that laboratory-confirmed dengue disease in areas of high transmission can be established. Epidemiological data of this kind are critical to dengue vaccine efficacy trials.