Demographic Trends Research Articles

Educational Inequality Among Left-Behind Children in China and Vietnam

This essay delves into the issue of educational inequality faced by left-behind children in China and Vietnam, a challenge closely tied to the rapid economic transformations in both countries that have driven significant internal migration. Children who remain in rural regions often encounter profound academic and social disadvantages, further entrenching cycles of poverty and inequality. Through a comparative lens, this study examines how institutional barriers--such as China’s Hukou system--and Vietnam’s geographical and ethnic divisions exacerbate these disparities in education. The research draws upon government policy analyses, demographic trends, and existing scholarly work to illuminate the particular obstacles these children face. The findings underscore that in China, the Hukou system serves as a key obstacle to rural children’s access to high-quality education, whereas in Vietnam, ethnic minorities and those living in isolated areas contend with issues such as language barriers, geographic remoteness, and the impacts of climate change. The essay concludes with recommendations for policy reform and future areas of study, advocating for more comprehensive strategies and international cooperation to address the entrenched inequalities at play.

Fertility Rate In Uzbekistan (1890-1990): Demographic Analysis of Gender Equality and Development (SDG 5)

Objective: This study aims to analyze the trends in birth rates in Uzbekistan from 1890 to 1990, identifying key factors influencing these trends and examining their demographic implications in relation to SDG 5: Gender Equality. Theoretical Framework: Grounded in demographic transition theory, this research explores how birth rates fluctuate due to social, economic, and historical changes, with a particular focus on gender and age structure, and the impact of women’s education and employment on fertility rates, aligning with SDG 5. Method: The study employs a historical analysis of birth rates in Uzbekistan over a century. It examines data from population censuses and assesses changes in demographic processes during periods of civil war, World War II, and the post-war years. Findings: The results indicate that significant shifts in Uzbekistan's birth rates are closely tied to historical events, such as wars, government policies, and economic transitions. Improvements in women’s education and employment are shown to have influenced fertility rates, in line with the goals of SDG 5. Research Implications: This study offers valuable insights for policymakers, contributing to demographic research and supporting strategies for gender equality in Uzbekistan.

Common snipe (Gallinago gallinago) population trend using 12 years of data across different Italian regions

AbstractThe common snipe (Gallinago gallinago) is a popular migratory game bird in Italy, especially in the northern regions. An effective management plan for this species requires setting up a population monitoring scheme to estimate its conservation status. For waders subject to hunting, like the common snipe, such monitoring must also be based on quantitative and qualitative data collected for consecutive hunting seasons. Among these data, the demographic trends, the frequency and distribution during postnuptial migration, hunting bags, plumage collections, and habitat use are essential to improve the management and conservation of this species. The aim of this work was to explore variations in common snipe abundance in the span of 12 hunting seasons in 5 Italian regions: Emilia‐Romagna, Latium, Marche, Piedmont, and Umbria. Data on common snipe abundance in each region and year were reported in the form of an abundance index (Indice Cynégétique d'Abondance [ICA]) and a harvest index (Indice Cynégétique de Prélèvement [ICP]), which correspond respectively to the number of common snipes flushed and harvested during a hunting trip. Considering pooled data from all regions, our findings revealed no significant variations in common snipe abundance and harvest rate from 2010–2011 to 2021–2022. However, significant differences emerged in the 5 explored regions. These results underscore the importance of maintaining long‐term monitoring programs for evaluating the conservation status of the common snipe population, such as presence and abundance, which are critical for sustainable hunting and conservative management of the species in Italy.

Projecting future migration with Bayesian hierarchical gravity models of migration: an application to Africa

In this paper, I present and discuss a novel approach to parameterize a gravity model of migration using Bayesian hierarchical models with random intercepts that are free to vary by country of origin, destination, and directed origin-destination country pairs. I then utilize this model to project transboundary migration flows between African countries to the horizon 2050. To do so, I use data on projected future crop yields and water availability from the ISIMIP2b scenarios in combination with projections on future economic and demographic trends from the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The results indicate that over the period 2010–2050 between 8 to 17 millions people are projected to migrate internationally on the African continent. Yet, only a small portion of these migrants will be induced to move because of climate change. To the contrary, comparisons between SSPs scenarios suggests that economic development will have a far larger impact on projected level of international migration on the continent than climate change.

Fertility Trends in Bangladesh Employing Parity Progression Ratios

Fertility trends in Bangladesh have long been a subject of study due to the country's significant demographic transitions over the past few decades. This study investigated cohort fertility rates and trends using information from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHSs) (BDHS 2011, BDHS 2014, and BDHS 2017-2018). The study utilizes parity progression ratios (PPRs) to examine the fertility distribution among all women and currently married women. Fertility patterns are investigated across various birth cohorts of women spanning seven age groups (15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, and 45-49), including the entirety of the reproductive age range (15-49 years). In the BDHS 2011, the cohort total fertility rate (TFRc) was 2.62 for all women and 2.73 for currently married women. In the BDHS 2014, the TFRc for all women decreased to 2.40, and for currently married women, it declined to 2.56. Finally, in the BDHS 2017-18, the TFR for all women decreased to 2.30, while for currently married women, it reached 2.45. Notably, TFRc exhibited a declining trend over the three surveys, with the TFR remaining constant at 2.30 from BDHS 2011 to BDHS 2017-18. It is worth mentioning that while the TFR and TFRc values are identical, the TFRc for currently married women in BDHS-2017-18 is slightly higher by 0.15 compared to all women (BDHS 2014). This research highlights significant shifts in cohort fertility levels in Bangladesh over time, offering valuable insights into fertility patterns among women of varying age groups within the reproductive span. The observed declines in both TFRc underscore Bangladesh’s evolving fertility dynamics. Policymakers should sustain declining fertility rates while balancing population control with development and regularly monitor trends to adapt policies to changing reproductive patterns. International Journal of Statistical Sciences Vol. 24(2), November, 2024, pp 1-18

Correction: Demographic transition and population dynamics in Xinjiang, China

Correction: Demographic transition and population dynamics in Xinjiang, China

Behçet's disease: incidence, prevalence, and real-word data on the use of biologic agents in Japan.

Behçet's disease (BD) is an autoinflammatory disease that can affect multiple organs, including the gastrointestinal tract. Conventional management comprises anti-inflammatory drugs such as glucocorticoids (GCs) and/or immunomodulators that alleviate symptoms. The introduction of biological agents that target tumor necrosis factorα (TNF-α) has improved disease management. The goal of this work was to analyze the current prevalence and incidence of total BD and gastrointestinal Behçet's disease (GIBD) in Japan, and examine treatment trends, especially regarding the use of TNF-α inhibitors (TNFαi). We performed a retrospective descriptive observational study in which BD and GIBD demographic trends, medical treatment patterns, and reported adverse events (AEs) were assessed among patients with data recorded between 2017 and 2021 in the Japan Medical Data Center Claims Database (now JMDC Inc.). Prevalence of BD and GIBD in Japan during the observation period increased at an annual rate of + 3% and + 4%, respectively, while incidence decreased by - 5% and - 2%, with a more prominent decline in confirmed GIBD cases (- 15%). Although GCs were the most common initial treatment administered, use of TNFαi for BD and GIBD management increased by + 5.6% and + 8.1%, respectively. Severe AEs (mainly pneumonia and GI-associated AEs) were reported in 40% of patients receiving TNFαi; however, a high retention rate (of up to 80%) was observed 3years after treatment initiation. The use of TNFαi for GIBD treatment has increased in Japan in recent years. Additional research is necessary to further evaluate TNFαi effectiveness in GIBD and other BD subtypes.

Regulatory Framework for Artificial Intelligence in the Legal System of Pakistan

Progressively more people are living to at least the age of 60 years and at least a quarter of the global population is expected to be 60 years or older by 2050 (United Nations, 2023). This demographic transition, driven by declining fertility rates and increased life expectancy, is accompanied by a notable trend: more people are returning to the workplace or taking up part-time jobs after retirement, which implies that the number of retirees doing so is on the rise. In the United States, about 29 percent of retirees resume work (DE Silver, 2023), and 47 percent of men aged from 60 to 64 years go back to work within the first ten years of retirement in Canada (Statistic Canada, 2023). Such changes in the social contract require that current and future advancements in post-retirement employment be analyzed and understood about antecedents and consequences of career concepts and management of human capital in organizations. There is relatively little literature published on retirement, however, the few extant literature are silent on what motivates retirees back into work and the effects on organizational performance. Therefore, this paper attempts to fill this gap by reviewing the literature on post-retirement employment, with particular emphasis on antecedents and consequences of decisions to re-employment retirees. It stresses the significance of integration and synthesis of findings for better understanding of the subject by specialists of different branches of knowledge, including sociology, psychology, and economics in the framework of HRM for the sake of improved strategic planning and policy-making. Finally, an analysis is made regarding demographic effects on workers in the organization as well as the effects of the retiring baby-boomers and the shortage of workers expected to ensue. It speaks about the possibilities of reemploying older workers as having implications to reduce workforce shortages, especially when it comes to specialized occupational positions. Last but not least; the paper sums up the social equity functions of retirees, retirees' responsibilities in family and community, and difficulties experienced in the process of retirement. Thus, the goal to expand the existing knowledge about retirees’ quality of life and the effects of work after retirement on the individual and organizational levels will be achieved through attending to the aspects identified above. Indeed, this research is valuable for enriching modern theories on career development and human resource management, and for understanding how retirees’ skills and experience can be utilized in the interest of both the employment market and the social well-being of the community.

Still do I have a life? A Qualitative Study of Retired Citizen in Pakistan

Progressively more people are living to at least the age of 60 years and at least a quarter of the global population is expected to be 60 years or older by 2050 (United Nations, 2023). This demographic transition, driven by declining fertility rates and increased life expectancy, is accompanied by a notable trend: more people are returning to the workplace or taking up part-time jobs after retirement, which implies that the number of retirees doing so is on the rise. In the United States, about 29 percent of retirees resume work (DE Silver, 2023), and 47 percent of men aged from 60 to 64 years go back to work within the first ten years of retirement in Canada (Statistic Canada, 2023). Such changes in the social contract require that current and future advancements in post-retirement employment be analyzed and understood about antecedents and consequences of career concepts and management of human capital in organizations. There is relatively little literature published on retirement, however, the few extant literature are silent on what motivates retirees back into work and the effects on organizational performance. Therefore, this paper attempts to fill this gap by reviewing the literature on post-retirement employment, with particular emphasis on antecedents and consequences of decisions to re-employment retirees. It stresses the significance of integration and synthesis of findings for better understanding of the subject by specialists of different branches of knowledge, including sociology, psychology, and economics in the framework of HRM for the sake of improved strategic planning and policy-making. Finally, an analysis is made regarding demographic effects on workers in the organization as well as the effects of the retiring baby-boomers and the shortage of workers expected to ensue. It speaks about the possibilities of reemploying older workers as having implications to reduce workforce shortages, especially when it comes to specialized occupational positions. Last but not least; the paper sums up the social equity functions of retirees, retirees' responsibilities in family and community, and difficulties experienced in the process of retirement. Thus, the goal to expand the existing knowledge about retirees’ quality of life and the effects of work after retirement on the individual and organizational levels will be achieved through attending to the aspects identified above. Indeed, this research is valuable for enriching modern theories on career development and human resource management, and for understanding how retirees’ skills and experience can be utilized in the interest of both the employment market and the social well-being of the community.

Current account determinants in a globalized world

Abstract This paper investigates the determinants of external imbalances for a group of 26 developed and emerging countries over the period 1972–2021. In addition to traditional factors, the model incorporates the impact of external imbalances in third countries. The empirical evidence highlights the importance of accounting for parameter instabilities in modeling external imbalances, with countries exhibiting heterogeneous behavior in terms of the estimated break dates. The results underscore the critical role of external drivers, such as oil shocks, and the growing influence of third-country imbalances in an increasingly globalized world. Additionally, demographic trends emerge as a significant long-run internal driver. Finally, the paper calculates regime-specific short-run multipliers.

Migration and evolutionary analysis of trends in the transformation of maritime education in wartime conditions

The research focuses on analyzing fundamental changes in Ukraine's higher education system occurring under the influence of unprecedented geopolitical events and demographic shifts, with particular emphasis on the maritime education sector. The study examines the period of 2020-2023, characterized by large-scale challenges caused by Russian military aggression and its consequences for the educational sector. Based on the analysis of institutional reports and statistical data, significant changes have been identified in student contingent dynamics, redistribution of educational flows, and transformation of educational practices. The research results demonstrate that despite considerable adaptability and successful implementation of European educational standards, Ukraine's higher education system has faced serious challenges related to forced youth migration and demographic decline. This problem is particularly acute in the maritime education sector, where there is a persistent trend toward decreasing numbers of students. The paper substantiates the necessity of systematic state measures for developing maritime education in Ukraine. The research reveals the complex interaction between demographic trends, educational transformation, and sectoral development under wartime conditions.

Rice Cultivation Area, Demographic Trends, and Trade Dynamics for Food Security in Nepal (2011–2021)

ABSTRACTRice is the most important staple crop in Nepal, playing a critical role in both the economy and food security. This study analyzes the trends in rice cultivation, production, imports, and exports from fiscal years 2011/2012 to 2021/2022 and also presents population data from the initial and final years. Over the study period, the area of rice cultivation declined by 0.81% annually, while the production grew by 1.5% per year, and the yield improved at a rate of 1.97% per year. Trend analysis indicated no significant changes in cultivation area or production, but a significant positive trend was observed in the yield. Rice import showed a significant annual increase of 5.61% in price value and 12.80% in quantity, while exports also grew by 1.95% in quantity and 2.39% in value. However, exports remain negligible compared to imports. Nepal's rice self‐sufficiency ratio (SSR) has declined by 1.15% annually, falling from 92.72% in 2011/2012 to 82.01% in 2021/2022 while its import dependency ratio (IDR) has increased by 5.89% annually. These trends suggest that Nepal is becoming increasingly vulnerable in terms of rice food security. Population dynamics based on two census records revealed a notable 14% rise in the foreign population. This situation underscores the urgent need for policy interventions to address the decline in rice self‐sufficiency, labor shortages, and growing import dependency, ensuring sustainable rice production and food security in Nepal.

Designing a Second Life: An Action Research Project Implementing an Employment Platform in Japan

In Japan, with rising longevity actively “designing a second life” is vital including the potential to work, which is key for those retiring from employment and women after child-rearing. This brings vitality to local communities, given demographic trends and the health and well-being benefits of appropriate employment. Yet, existing local labour market mechanisms do not serve well many such individuals.This paper provides insights into an ongoing action-research programme to achieve social impact by developing a platform to support people’s second life related to employment. The initial focus is on a city in which to develop a prototype. The approach involves forming a consortium of local stakeholders, and then pursuing initiatives to develop the platform’s two sides: bringing potential employers onboard and attracting people in their second life. In the next phase, the aim is to develop a model to support other cities’ learning and adaptation.The initial priority in the focal city is to have a durable local impact by ‘going slow’ to establish the platform with local stakeholders, to then ‘go fast’ in increasing impact through matching: in practice, however, once established, accelerating impact locally is challenging. Nonetheless, the focal city provides a base for transfer of learning to other cities so as to increase impact on people’s second life and thereby contributing to achieving a sustainable society.

Demographic and Regional Trends of Cardiovascular Disease and Obesity-Related Mortality in the United States From 1999 to 2021

Demographic and Regional Trends of Cardiovascular Disease and Obesity-Related Mortality in the United States From 1999 to 2021

Strategic Planning in Higher Education Institutions

Strategic planning in higher education has become increasingly essential due to technological advancements, shifting student expectations, and evolving demographic trends. This paper investigates the critical components, processes, and challenges involved in strategic planning, emphasizing its importance for aligning institutional goals with actionable outcomes. The study outlines the key elements of a successful strategic plan, including vision, mission, objectives, and stakeholder involvement. The process of developing, implementing, and monitoring plans is discussed, highlighting data-driven decision-making and adaptability as central themes. Case studies illustrate best practices and the adaptability required to navigate shifting landscapes. Effective planning fosters institutional growth, aligns with societal needs, and ensures accountability while addressing challenges such as resistance to change, resource limitations, and diverse institutional contexts. Keywords: Strategic planning, higher education, institutional growth, stakeholder engagement, vision and mission.

American Geriatrics Society position statement: Making medical treatment decisions for unrepresented older adults

AbstractThis paper is an official position statement of the American Geriatrics Society (AGS) and updates the 2017 AGS position statement, Making Medical Treatment Decisions for Unbefriended Older Adults. In this updated position statement, the term “unbefriended” is replaced by “unrepresented” as a term that is more value‐neutral, more accurately describes the circumstance in which a person without medical decision‐making capacity does not have recognized surrogate representation, and better aligns with increasingly preferred terminology as reflected in recent medical literature. We define unrepresented older adults as those who (1) lack decisional capacity to provide informed consent for a particular medical treatment, (2) have not executed an advance directive that addresses the medical treatment at hand and lack capacity to do so, and (3) lack representation from a surrogate decision‐maker (i.e., family, friend, or legally authorized surrogate). Making medical decisions on behalf of unrepresented older adults is exceptionally challenging and, given demographic trends, is likely to become increasingly common in the years ahead. The process of arriving at treatment decisions for this population should follow standards of procedural fairness and include capacity assessment, search for potential surrogates, team‐based efforts to determine the patient's values and preferences, and steps to guard against bias. Proactive measures are needed to identify older adults at risk for becoming unrepresented. This position statement also calls for national efforts to reduce state‐to‐state variability in legal approaches for unrepresented patients.

Exploring promotion practices, impact on public servants’ commitment, efficiency, responsiveness, and goal attainment in Nigeria

This paper explored the influence of promotion practices on the commitment, efficiency, responsiveness, and goal attainment of public servants in Nigeria. Public sector organizations are vital for national governance and development, particularly in countries like Nigeria. The performance of public servants, who play a crucial role in policy implementation and service delivery, is significantly influenced by their perceptions of fairness and transparency in promotion practices. Despite the importance of these employees, they encounter challenges such as political interference, nepotism, and bureaucratic inefficiencies, which complicate promotion decisions. These issues can undermine employee motivation and overall organizational performance. This study draws on the Expectancy Theory of Motivation to investigate how various promotion practices, whether merit-based, seniority-based, or influenced by other factors, shape public servants' perceptions of reward expectancy and, subsequently, their work behaviors. The study is a cross-sectional survey. The research indicates that when promotions are viewed as merit-based, public servants exhibit higher levels of commitment, efficiency, responsiveness, and achievement of goals. In contrast, promotion systems perceived as politically biased or lacking transparency correlate with lower morale and diminished organizational outcomes. Using a survey of 1,216 Nigerian public servants, the study identifies significant demographic trends that influence employee perceptions and performance outcomes. The findings demonstrate strong correlations between transparent, meritocratic promotions and positive employee behaviors, including heightened job satisfaction, efficient task execution, and proactive goal pursuit. Conversely, opaque and politicized promotion practices result in disengagement, reduced efficiency, and poor alignment with organizational goals.Thus, it is imperative to strategically align professional development with promotion criteria. Policy reforms are essential to remove political influences from the promotion process. Advocating for changes that minimize bias and prioritize merit over political affiliation will foster a more equitable and objective system, ultimately benefiting both public servants and the communities they serve in Nigeria.

Supportive and palliative care needs among older adults in India: an estimation using a nationally representative survey

BackgroundOne in five people will be older than 60 by the year 2050 in India. This demographic transition demands integration of geriatric and palliative care. The national level burden of palliative and supportive care needs of the older population is largely unknown in India. This study estimates the burden of palliative care needs among the older population in India from a nationally representative survey - Longitudinal Ageing Study of India (LASI).MethodsThe general indicators of poor or deteriorating health from the Supportive and Palliative Care Indicator Tool for Low Income Setting were used to identify older adults with palliative care needs. These indicators were compared with the LASI data and matched with the appropriate variables. Descriptive statistical analysis, chi-square tests and multivariate logistic regression were done to estimate palliative care needs and its association with other characteristics.Results12.2% of Indian older adults have supportive and palliative care needs. Among Indian states, highest for West Bengal (17%), Madhya Pradesh (16.9%), and Bihar (16.3%) while lowest in Arunachal Pradesh (2.2%), Nagaland (2.4%), and Mizoram (3%). High needs were found among those aged 70 years and above (AOR-1.86), females (AOR-1.33), Muslim religion (AOR-1.24), rural residents (AOR-1.72), those who experienced ill-treatment (OR-1.75), with cancer (AOR-2.84), respiratory disease (AOR-3.14), and stroke (AOR-2.58). Lower needs were observed with higher education (AOR-0.43) and health insurance (AOR-0.83).ConclusionThis is the first study in India that estimates the need for supportive and palliative care using a nationally representative sample. One among eight older adults in India has supportive and palliative care needs. The needs are higher among female older adults, rural residents, older adults with chronic diseases, and in poorer States. Screening and early integration of palliative care with routine healthcare care is essential to meet these needs.

Does anyone live here? Mine closures and depopulation in Spanish coal mining areas

One of the most pressing socio-economic issues across EU countries has been the depopulation of a significant part of its territory. Less urbanized areas are perceived as non-attractive places to live and have been losing population steadily in the latest decades. For the case of Spain, this European-wise phenomenon has been exacerbated for several territories characterized by a large presence of primary and extractive industries in the past. We quantify empirically the contribution that the closure of the heavily subsidized coal mining had on the depopulation trends experienced in mining-intensive areas in Spain. This poses an interesting research question, since both non-mining and mining territories in Spain suffered a remarkable negative down trend in demographic terms since early nineties, which was the period on which the coal mining industry started to cease steadily its activity. Our empirical strategy relies on matching estimators that compare the demographic trend across mining-intensive and non-mining intensive municipalities in four provinces, controlling for observable characteristics and isolating the net effect of the “shock” originated by the termination of this mining activities. Our analysis finds a statistically significant and sizable negative effect on the fall of population for mining-intensive municipalities between 1991 and 2011.

Update in Asthma Management in Low-Middle Income Countries.

Asthma represents a significant global health burden, particularly in low and middle income countries (LMICs), where its impact is disproportionately severe. In these regions, asthma management is characterized by poorer control and greater mortality rates compared to wealthier nations. The prevalence of asthma is on the rise and demographic trends indicate that there would be a greater burden on children given that they represent a larger proportion of the population pyramid in LMICs. Challenges in addressing asthma in LMICs are various, amongst them: health care systems in these countries predominantly focus on acute and infectious diseases, leading to inadequate attention to chronic illnesses. Access to essential controller medications (inhaled corticosteroids) is often limited and availability tends to fluctuate. Infraestructural deficiencies and difficult health care access are also identified barriers. Furthermore, many LMICs struggle to meet the World Health Organization's (WHO) guidelines that are set for a minimum standard of care for asthma treatment. Suggested approaches should be aimed at: foment commitment from local health care providers and governmental involvement on policies to meet minimum standards of care (emphasis on continuous access to controller medications) Equally significant is the implementation of policies designed to augment educational strategies (health care professionals and general population), reduce smoking rates and air pollution.