Components Of Demographic Change Research Articles

Demographic dynamics across urban settings and implications for ethnic geographies

AbstractThere remains a tendency to treat demographic components of urban change in isolation from one another, neglecting the interplay between them. Thus, research has fallen short of an integrated demographic approach for explaining ethnic densification and segregation. To address this shortfall, this paper attends to the dynamics of the components of demographic change and in particular their migrant‐ and location‐specific expressions. The analyses use linked individual‐level comprehensive Belgian census data from 1991 and 2001, focussing on 12 ethnic groups and five cities. The demographic decomposition provides three conclusions: the contribution of demographic components of population change varies spatially at city and neighbourhood levels; co‐ethnics in differing urban settings have heterogeneous demographic experience; and demographic components of change are generally reproducing ethnic geographies, but some trends of deconcentration are observed. These findings provide a more nuanced perspective on segregation debates and demographic models of migrant integration.

Reconciliation of Australian Demographic Data to Study Immigrant Population Change Across Space and Time

The study of immigrant population change is hindered by data sources that capture international migration flows separately from other demographic process and population stock data. In this paper, we illustrate this by gathering detailed demographic data and estimates for the Australia-born population and 18 immigrant populations in Australia, according to their country or region of birth. We then develop a methodology for reconciling differences in these data sets to study the sources of quinquennial immigrant population change from 1981 to 2016 by age, sex, and geographic area. Reconciliation refers to the process of ensuring consistency between the demographic components of change (i.e., births, deaths and migration) and total population change. We validate the methodology by how well it predicts the population 5 years later by age and sex using a multiregional cohort-component prediction model. Once the data are reconciled for every 5-year period from 1981 to 2016, we then see how well the reconciled data reproduces the 2016 population data using the 1981 population as a starting point. This research is useful for improving our understanding of the mechanisms and subsequent spatial contributions of immigration to population change over time. We demonstrate such value by examining the reconciled sources of regional population change for populations born in Australia, the United Kingdom and China over time.

Erratum

Erratum

Openness to Change: Experiential and Demographic Components of Change in Local Health Department Leaders

During the 2008-2010 economic recession, Kentucky local health department (LHD) leaders utilized innovative strategies to maintain their programs. A characteristic of innovative strategy is leader openness to change. Leader demographical research in for-profit organizations has yielded valuable insight into leader openness to change. For LHD leaders, the nature of the association between leader demographic and organizational characteristics on leader openness to change is unknown. The objectives of this study are to identify variation in openness to change by leaders' demographic and organizational characteristics and to characterize the underlying relationships. The study utilized Spearman rank correlations test to determine relationships between leader openness to change (ACQ) and leader and LHD characteristics. To identify differences in the distribution of ACQ scores, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis non-parametric tests were used, and to adjust for potential confounding, linear regression analysis was performed. Local health department leaders in the Commonwealth of Kentucky were the unit of analysis. Expenditure and revenue data were available from the state health department. National census data were utilized for county level population estimates. A cross-sectional survey was performed of KY LHD leaders' observable attributes relating to age, gender, race, educational background, leadership experience, and openness to change. Leaders had relatively high openness to change scores. Spearman correlations between leader ACQ and departmental 2012-2013 revenue and expenditures were statistically significant, as were the differences observed in ACQ by gender and the educational level of the leader. Differences in ACQ score by education level and agency revenue were significant even after adjusting for potential confounders. The analyses imply that there are underlying relationships between leader and LHD characteristics based on leader openness to change.

Forecast Accuracy and Uncertainty of Australian Bureau of Statistics State and Territory Population Projections

Errors from past rounds of population projections can provide both diagnostic information to improve future projections as well as information for users on the likely uncertainty of current projections. This paper assesses the forecast accuracy of official Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population projections for the states and territories of Australia and is the first major study to do so. For the states and territories, it is found that, after 10-year projection durations, absolute percentage errors lie between about 1% and 3% for the states and around 6% for the territories. Age-specific population projections are also assessed. It is shown that net interstate migration and net overseas migration are the demographic components of change which contributed most to forecast error. The paper also compares ABS projections of total population against simple linear extrapolation, finding that, overall, ABS projections just outperformed extrapolation. No identifiable trend in accuracy over time is detected. Under the assumption of temporal stability in the magnitude of error, empirical prediction intervals are created from past errors and applied to the current set of ABS projections. The paper concludes with a few ideas for future projection rounds.

The Hoover Index of Population Concentration and the Demographic Components of Change

The Hoover Index is the most widely used measure for assessing the concentration or deconcentration tendencies of a country’s evolving population distribution. In this article, the authors propose alternative variants of the index designed to explore the influences of the various demographic components of change (birth, deaths, net domestic, and net international migration) on settlement dynamics. These decompositions can also be applied to examine the differential contributions of various race and ethnicity groups to overall trends. Using U.S. Census Bureau county population estimates, the authors deploy their approaches to examine the nature of deconcentration trends evidenced for the decadal periods 1990–1999 and 2000–2009.

Landscapes in Eastern Germany at a turning point - linkages between population decline, ageing and land consumption

Since 1990, eastern Germany has been facing not only economic transformation but also demographic change. Two components of demographic change are population decline and ageing. They have a strong influence on landscapes, for example on land consumption by housing and industry. Three rural case study areas in eastern Germany are analysed which have been facing a strong population decline and ageing process over the past 20 years. Expert interviews were carried out and statistics as well as documents were analysed. It is argued that demographic change can be seen as a characteristic of instability in social systems. Moreover, it is an important driving force of landscape change, weakening the socio-ecological resilience of landscapes.

Could Refugees Have a Significant Impact on the Future Demographic Change of Serbia?

AbstractSerbia still hosts the largest number of forced migrants in Europe. The paper examines the impact of the refugee influx from newly formed states on the territory of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) into Serbia on the future demographic trends of the country. Examination of the past population projections of Serbia confirmed that the process of predicting migration flows is related to the greatest source of uncertainty compared to all other components of demographic change. The results of our projection of Serbia’s population through 2050 show that the large influx of refugees during the last decade of the 20th century should not have a significant impact on the future demographic change of Serbia. Even in the case of substantial improvement of total fertility rate (2.35 in final projection year, comparing to current 1.55), no positive demographic effect should be experienced.Continuation of the decline in Serbia’s total population size cannot be offset by recent refugee influx for several reasons. The most important of them are: too small number of migrants comparing to the total population size of Serbia; similarity in fertility behaviour between refugee and indigenous population; the large‐scaled emigration during the same period; much older refugee population compared to emigrant population; and the processes of refugee repatriation and resettlement. A purely hypothetical projection variant assuming the migration required to maintain the size of current total population size of Serbia until 2050 points out the need for almost three times the amount of average annual migration surplus caused by the refugee influx.

Demographic volatility and economic growth: convention and beyond

Following the success of endogenous growth theory, recent empirical examinations of the demography-economic growth construct established that components of demographic change can provide meaningful and clear insights into the direction and impact of demographic variation in economic growth. While theoretical justification and empirical support to the claim cannot be denied, confusions seem to have arisen whether an empirical growth construct will only be limited to demographic dynamics or the model can entertain other non-demographic variables. In a leading research, Kelley and Schmidt (1995, 2001) provided seemingly ambiguous evidence that addition of non-demographic variables can add explanatory power to the growth regression. While subsequent empirical growth models have largely followed the convention as in KS, some important considerations like the stochastic effects of demographic system on economic growth seem to be missing. This paper attempts to address the concerns by suggesting a long-memory demographic system and embedding stochastic demographic characteristics in a standard Solow-Swan model, which also forms the basis of convergence pattern. We empirically show that significant stochastic shocks exist in the demographic components which could have contributed to the growth volatility across nations. We suggest that empirical growth models should account for stochastic demographic characteristics to enable economic policy makers with correct information about the current and future state of evolution of the demography-economic system.

The Demography of Sub-Saharan Africa from the 1950s to the 2000s

Sub-Saharan Africa (48 states, 50 countries', 700 million people in 2004, and close to 22 million sq. km.) was long considered by demographers to be a relatively homogeneous region that withstood the sociodemographic changes that had been occurring in a large part of the world since the 1950s or the 1960s. During the 1970s, African demography or the population of Tropical Africa was characterized overall by early and universal marriage, high fertility and excessive mortality, and finally rapid growth. Since then, however, the situation has changed, and Africa is no longer an exception. For the most part, it has entered the demographic transition process.But just as elsewhere two or three decades ago, the changes are occurring at various paces according to the country, depending on the (numerous) cultural systems, the diversified economies, the political systems, but also on the crises of various kinds that some countries, or even entire sub-regions of the continent, have been experiencing over the last 30 years: conflicts and civil wars, food shortages that sometimes attain the famine stage, a deterioration of living standards, and of course AIDS. Vulnerability, insecurity and poverty are the fate of many countries, and of large strata of the population within each of them.In the 1990s the demography of Africa and its sub-regions and countries became the subject of several general surveys. These were mostly collective works with a focus either on all the components of demographic change, or more often on one or the other issue, such as fertility or AIDS(2). The present chronicle, which is by definition less ambitious, has two objectives. The first is to present data that are as comparable, reliable and recent as possible on the evolution since 1950, and the present characteristics of the population of each country. These data are gathered in a statistical appendix in 14 large tables that correspond to each of the issues addressed in the text. The second objective is to achieve a synthetic view of the major components of change and of the growing diversification of the situations in the region. The information is summarized in graphs and smaller tables. This chronicle focuses on sub-Saharan Africa, and excludes the five countries of North Africa, which have a different history, culture and demography. Together with the Middle East, North Africa will be the subject of a future chronicle.We begin with a few words comparing the African social and economic context with that of other regions, a review of the progress achieved in the area of information systems and an overview of the evolution of the population over two millennia. Next we consider successively: 1) the size and growth of the populations since 1950; 2) the sub-regional patterns of demographic transition; 3) nuptiality (age at first marriage, polygyny, marriage dissolution); 4) fertility (levels, trends) and its proximate determinants (e.g. breastfeeding, abstinence, contraception); 5) overall mortality, maternal mortality and AIDS; 6) child mortality (from age O to 5) and health (vaccination, malnutrition, medical services); 7) the age structure; 8) urbanization and the rural exodus; 9) international migration within Africa as well as to the wealthy countries; and 10) inequality between men and women in education.Our approach is essentially descriptive, and involves the study of levels and trends in all countries and sub-regions, the discussion of inequality (in terms of education and type of residence) in countries at different stages in the transition or the process of development (particularly Benin, Nigeria, Mali, Cameroon, Kenya and Zimbabwe). Occasionally we will study the relation between the countries' demographic indices and various indicators of social, economic, human and health development, which are regrouped by country in Tables A. 13 and A. 14 of the Appendix.The preferred sources of data include, on the one hand, the data banks of various United Nations agencies (the Population Division, UNDP, WHO, UNESCO, etc. …

Regional and Metropolitan Growth and Decline in the United States

This volume is 1 of a series aimed at converting the vast statistical yield of the 1980 US census into authoritative analyses of major trends and changes in American life. This volumes main objective is to interpret the redistribution patterns of the 1970s and early 1980s in light of the changing social and economic contexts for redistribution that emerged during this period taking cognizance of the major explanations and theories that have been offered to account for these new patterns. Part 1 comprising chapters 3-6 pertains to redistribution across regions and metropolitan areas. This portion of the monograph provides an overview of the new regional and metropolitan area redistribution patterns by evaluating the pervasiveness of the post-1970 redistribution reversals as well as shifts in the demographic components of change that underlie them. It examines the impact of 1970-1980 growth and decline on population and household subgroups in various areas and undertakes a separate examination of redistribution patterns determinants and consequences for the black population. Part 2 of this monograph comprising chapters 7-11 evaluates post-1970 shifts in central city-suburban redistribution within the nations 39 largest metropolitan areas. It also documents aggregate population changes for central cities and suburbs along with their underlying demographic components. It devotes the most attention to shifts in the racial and socioeconomic selectivities that have become associated with post-1970 suburbanization and their impacts on the central city. It provides careful evaluation of selective post-1970 city-suburb redistribution tendencies with the aid of rich area-based summary data from the 1970 and 1980 decennial censuses. It evaluates the extent to which the 1970s shifts in racial segregation the decline of full-family households and the rise of the so-called service city have effected beneficial demographic changes in large central cities. The final chapter ties together this studys major results and underlying perspectives. It reviews the most important influences on redistribution in the post-1970 period and speculates about future redistribution tendencies that could emerge.

The spatial components of demographic change.

"In recent years, fertility in developed countries has drastically fallen towards replacement levels, so that further changes play an increasing role in determining the dynamics of population systems. In this paper, the dynamics of multiregional populations are analyzed when occasional perturbations resulting from changes in social and economic conditions exist. A perturbation theory for population models is introduced and the increasing effect of changes in demographic rates in determining the spatial component of the multiregional population growth is shown." The author outlines the critical situations in which perturbations produce drastic demographic changes. Data for Italy are used to show the theory's usefulness in analyzing both short- and long-term effects of changes in vital rates.

New midyear age-sex-color-specific estimates of the U.S. population for the 1940s and 1950s: including a revision of coverage estimates for the 1940 and 1950 censuses

This paper describes new midyear (July 1) estimates of the "true" population of the United States by age, sex, and color (white, nonwhite) for the 1940s and 1950s. It also presents the corresponding implied coverage estimates for the 1940 and 1950 censuses. The new population estimates are calculated by combining the most recent figures on the 1960 population with estimates of the demographic components of change for the 1950s and 1940s in an iterative reverse cohort-component projection algorithm. Among the principal findings of the new estimates are: (a) existing midyear estimates of the "true" population in the 1950s are 450,000 to 500,000 too high; (b) existing age-specific estimates for the 1950s tend to underestimate the population at the older ages (55 years and over) and overestimate the population in the young and middle adult years (15 to 54 years); (c) estimates of the "true" population in the 1940s were too low except for nonwhites at ages 65 and over; (d) existing estimates of percentage net undercount and underenumeration for the 1950 and 1940 censuses tend to be too high, substantially so for nonwhites in the 1940 Census; and (e) nonwhites were more completely enumerated in 1940 than in 1950. Thus, in addition to being methodologically and temporally consistent with post-1960 estimates, the new population estimates described here imply some substantial revisions in demographic, social, and economic statistics for the two decades prior to 1960.