Democratic Party Won Research Articles

Regional elections in Italy (2012–15): Low turnout, tri-polar competition and Democratic Party’s (multi-level) dominance

ABSTRACTBetween October 2012 and May 2015, all Italian regions went to the polls to renew their assemblies and executives. In contrast to previous election rounds, only seven out of fifteen ordinary regions held their elections in (horizontal) simultaneity. For the first time, some ordinary regions held their elections in (vertical) simultaneity with the national or European election. The election results were somehow exceptional in three ways. First, they were affected by an extremely low level of turnout vis-à-vis previous regional elections and, in line with the second-order election model, vis-a-vis the 2013 general election. Turnout was, however, comparatively higher in the special status regions governed by dominant ethno-regionalist parties (Aosta Valley and South Tyrol); and in the regions that voted in vertical simultaneity with the national and (to a lesser extent) European elections. Secondly, in contrast to previous regional elections, competition for regional executives was (at least) tri-polar, following the pattern that emerged in the 2013 general election. Thirdly, in contrast to the predictions of the second-order election model, this round of regional elections did not punish the national incumbent. Indeed, the Democratic Party won fifteen out of twenty-one regional presidencies, taking nine of them from the centre-right. Finally, it is worth stressing that the combination of low turnout and tri-polar competition, in conjunction with presidential executives and majoritarian voting systems, raises serious issues of democratic legitimacy, as most regional presidents are voted in office by between a fifth and a quarter of registered voters.

Swing voting in the 2016 presidential election in counties where midlife mortality has been rising in white non-Hispanic Americans

Understanding the effects of widespread disruption of the social fabric on public health outcomes can provide insight into the forces that drive major political realignment. Our objective was to estimate the association between increases in mortality in middle-aged non-Hispanic white adults from 1999 to 2005 to 2009–2015, health inequalities in life expectancy by income, and the surge in support for the Republican Party in pivotal US counties in the 2016 presidential election. We conducted a longitudinal ecological study in 2764 US counties from 1999 to 2016. Increases in mortality were measured using age-specific (45–54 years of age) all-cause mortality from 1999 to 2005 to 2009–2015 at the county level. Support for the Republican Party was measured as the party's vote share in the presidential election in 2016 adjusted for results in 2008 and 2012. We found a significant up-turn in mortality from 1999 to 2005 to 2009–2015 in counties where the Democratic Party won twice (2008 and 2012) but where the Republican Party won in 2016 (+10.7/100,000), as compared to those in which the Democratic Party won in 2016 (−15.7/100,000). An increase in mortality of 15.2/100,000 was associated with a significant (p < 0.001) 1% vote swing from the 2008–2012 average to 2016. We also found that counties with wider health inequalities in life expectancy were more likely to vote Republican in 2016, regardless of the previous voting patterns. Counties with worsening premature mortality in the last 15 years and wider health inequalities shifted votes toward the Republican Party presidential candidate. Further understanding of causes of unanticipated deterioration in health in the general population can inform social policy.

‘What has Ghana Got That We Haven't?’ Party Politics and Anti-Colonialism in Botswana, 1960–66

ABSTRACTThis article offers a re-examination of the period leading up to independence in Botswana, formerly known as the Bechuanaland Protectorate, between 1960 and 1966. With the use of original archival material from Botswana and the United Kingdom, it aims to explain why the Bechuanaland Democratic Party overwhelmingly defeated the Bechuanaland People's Party in the March 1965 elections for self-government. Botswana's post-colonial transition was unusual for being without a mass, social movement for national self-determination. The Democratic Party, led by Seretse Khama, favoured close cooperation with the British colonial authority and a gradualist transition to independence, while the People's Party closely adhered to the ideology of anti-colonialism and demanded immediate independence. This article will argue that the Democratic Party won independence due to its sacrifice of anti-colonial credentials, in the short term, in favour of a political platform that addressed the long-term challenges of Bechuanaland's quest for viable statehood. The research helps to explain why Botswana was slow to develop closer relations with fellow independent African states. As a provincialised history of decolonisation, this article shows the potential for variance within the wider anti-colonial movement, which incorporated diverse actors, agendas and geopolitical conditions.

An Appraisal of Japan’s “Right Turn”

The conservative Liberal Democratic Party won overwhelming victories in the 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2016 elections in Japan. We discuss whether this reflected a rightward shift in the electorate, by examining how major parties and leaders are identified with particular ideological poles, and citizen–government distance on a range of issues.

Reproducing Toxic Election Campaigns: Negative Campaigning and Race-Based Politics in the Western Cape

The 2014 election in the Western Cape was once again a high-stakes, fiercely-contested affair. Political parties saw the Western Cape as an 'open race' and the province became the centre of vigorous campaign efforts in the lead-up to the election. The African National Congress (ANC), which had lost control of the province because its vote share dropped from 45% in 2004 to 32% in 2009, hoped to unseat the Democratic Alliance (DA), which had won in 2009 by a very narrow margin (51%). The ANC felt that it had done enough to regain control of the province, especially in light of deep-seated disillusionment in many communities and the violent protests that took place prior to the election.While the ANC maintained its support base, winning votes from 33% of the provincial electorate, the type of identity-based campaign it pursued combined with other factors to work to the DA's advantage. Despite the fact that the DA also engaged in race-based campaigning it won 59% of the provincial vote. This was obtained at the expense of small parties, who received negligible support in the 2014 election. Only the Economic Freedom Fighters and the African Christian Democratic Party won enough votes to obtain a seat each in the provincial legislature. This article examines electoral dynamics in the Western Cape, which saw the consolidation of DA support in the province. It focuses on the 2014 election campaign and the extent to which the negative campaign cycle evident in previous elections continued during the 2014 election campaign.

An Analysis of Challenges Faced by Japan’s Economy and Abenomics

:“Abenomics” refers to the economic policies advocated by Shinzo Abe, who became prime minister of Japan for a second time when his Liberal Democratic Party won an overwhelming majority in the general election in December 2012. Abenomics is distinguished by a set of policies comprising “three arrows”: (1) aggressive monetary policy, (2) fiscal consolidation, and (3) a growth strategy. The Japanese economy faces an aging population and increasing social welfare expenses. No other country has experienced such rapid growth of the number of retired people. In this article we will explain all three aspects of Abenomics, examine the current state of the Japanese economy, and explore what further remedies may be required if Japan is to recover from its long-term deflation. We will look at such proposals as hometown investment trust funds, postponement of the retirement age by introducing a flexible wage rate system, and changing the pension system to 401(k) style instruments.

Post-Fukushima Japan: The continuing nuclear controversy

The Fukushima disaster was a wake-up call for the nuclear industry as well as a shocking revelation of the inner workings of the Japanese power sector. The political fallout from the event was far-reaching, pushing governments into abandoning nuclear expansion, turning instead to fossil fuels and renewable energy alternatives. While the move away from nuclear energy was deemed a move critical to political survival in Europe, we find that political candidates running on anti-nuclear platforms did not win elections, while the pro-nuclear Liberal Democratic Party won government in the 2012 elections. Against this backdrop, we analyse the energy conflict in Japan using a framework of values versus interests and consider the regulatory and cultural conditions that contributed to the disaster. A number of considerations lie in the way of an organised phase-out of nuclear power in Japan. We also consider the possible policy paths Japan may take.

The Great Society after Johnson: The Case of Bilingual Education

Historians considering the ideological direction of American politics during the 1970s have often taken for granted that troubled decade's strong rightward impulse, said to have originated in a reaction against Lyndon B. Johnson's Great Society and stewardship of the Vietnam War, grown amid the economic strains and political resentments of the Nixon years, and reached its full force with Ronald Reagan's election to the presidency in 1980.1 Certainly, that version of events has some force, especially if one focuses on presidential politics and elections. Having lost only two presidential elections in the third of a century that preceded Lyndon Johnson's landslide in 1964, the Democratic party won only one of the next six contests, and its successful candidate in the Watergate-influenced year of 1976 was Jimmy Carter, the quintessential post-New Deal Democrat. Millions of erstwhile New Deal Democrats either started voting Republican or ceased voting at all, reflecting the mood of alienation from liberalism and government that was subsequently captured so brilliantly in books by J. Anthony Lukas and Jonathan Rieder.2 But if one turns to the policy legacy of the 1970s, it becomes hard to sustain the contention that the decade was fundamentally conservative: It saw the legalization of abortion; a halt to capital punishment; important new regulatory regimes in the areas of environmental protection, consumer protection, campaign finance, disability

Hail to Heydarbaba: a comparative view of popular Turkish &amp; classical Persian poetical languages

Muhammad Husayn Shahriyar (1906-1988) is one of the most famous contemporary poets in both the Persian and the Azerbaijani Turkish (Azeri)l languages. He was born in Tabriz, his mother-tongue being Turkish, and received his preliminary religious training in Arabic at a traditional madrasa. As part of the policy of eradication of the spirit of resistance and rebellion repeatedly welling up in Azerbaijan-further intensified after the reform movement of the Constitutional Revolution (1905-1911) had been extinguished-the Azerbaijani population of Iran was at this time discouraged and estranged from its identity, culture and language. The Pahlavi regime that came to power in 1925 was founded on an extreme Persian nationalism: no Azerbaijani was allowed to speak his native Turkish tongue in schools, government offices or other premises, or at any official meeting. These measures were to be partially relaxed only at times of national catastrophe or political crisis. Following the Allied occupation of Iran and the abdication of Riza Shah Pahlavi in 1940, this oppression temporarily disappeared along with its chief instigators. The Soviet forces occupying Iranian Azerbaijan made use of the native people's yearning for their mother tongue to win that people to their own political cause. Exploiting the Azerbaijanis' native but hitherto inhibited urge to express themselves in their own language, the Soviets tolerated and even encouraged publication in Turkish. Since the people of northern Azerbaijan (then a part of the USSR) speak the same Turkish dialect as those of the southern, Iranian, part, theatrical works by famous playwrights from the north, along with other cultural performances, could be staged and fully appreciated. Meanwhile in the political arena the Azerbaijani Democratic Party won control over the local government of the province in 1945 and Turkish became the language of all official transactions. The contents of publications permitted by the Soviet military authorities could naturally not be allowed to contradict the occupying forces' ideology and policy. Under these conditions, leftist tendencies were understandably predominant in Turkish-language writing and poetry. This peculiarity later served as an excuse for re-establishing the old ethno-linguistic suppression. The USSR finally evacuated Iranian Azerbaijan in 1946. In the wake of their withdrawal, the Tehran government staged a punitive expedition. Both during and after this professedly anti-communist witch-hunt, the Turkish language was incriminated as the essential instrument of the 'red devil'.