Demand For Agricultural Commodities Research Articles

Farmers’ perspective of COVID-19 effects on demand and supply of agricultural commodities in Nyamasheke district, Rwanda

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by a new strain of coronavirus. This disease disrupted the functionality of the global economy, and the agriculture sector was not spared. It is in this context that this paper aims at assessing farmers’ perceptions about the perceived shocks of COVID-19 on the side of demand and supply of agricultural commodities. The study was guided by three objectives viz to investigate the perceptions of farmers on the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on the demand for agricultural commodities, to explore the perceptions of farmers on the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on the supply of agricultural commodities and to analyze the factors affecting farmers’ perceptions of COVID-19 pandemic on demand and supply of agricultural commodities in Nyamasheke district. The target population size was 6237 composed of farmers of three irrigated lands in Nyamasheke District. Yamane’s formula for the sample size determination was used to find the sample size of the respondents which was 376 and then stratified and systematic sampling procedures were employed to get 174 farmers in Kirimbi, 114 farmers in Mugonero and 88 farmers in Kamiranzovu irrigated lands, respectively. This study employed both descriptive and inferential statistical tools to analyze data. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze data on the perceptions of farmers towards COVID-19 pandemic effects on the demand and the supply for agricultural commodities while the inferential statistics were used to estimate the logit of farmers’ perceptions on COVID-19 pandemic effects of demand and supply of agricultural commodities in the area under study. Results from the descriptive statistics revealed that 326 (86.7%) farmers agreed that COVID-19 pandemic has affected the demand of agricultural commodities while 244 (64.9%) farmers confirmed that COVID-19 pandemic has affected the supply of agricultural commodities in the area under study. The output of the model revealed that the independent variables that significantly contribute to the logit of the dependent variable were farming experience and labor. During the COVID-19 pandemic, farmers encountered several challenges that disrupted their livelihoods including changes in household consumption patterns, changes in market functionalities, discontinuity of the planned training and field visits, and low number of farmers in the farms. Researchers recommend that farmers’ purchasing power should be reinforced by providing financial support to them through lowering interest rates on loans. Key words: Demand, supply, COVID-19, pandemic, agricultural commodities, binary logistic regression, Rwanda

Cotton plant (Gossipyum spp.) development and yield are influenced by soil compaction: A Review

Intensive exploitation of soils has resulted in physical, chemical, and biological degradation as the demand for agricultural commodities, including cotton, has grown. Physical characteristics of the soil are those that are directly linked to the supply of water, nutrients, and air, as well as the establishment of roots for good agricultural crop development and yield. In this context, soil compaction is one of the most serious environmental issues caused by conventional agriculture. Cotton plant, which is highly sensitive to water stress and lack of soil aeration, is directly impacted by this type of degradation, which results in reduced root system development, affecting water and nutrient absorption, and causing damage to overall plant and crop yield. Soil compaction has been shown to reduce cotton yield in several studies; for example, the majority of the southeastern cotton-growing regions in the United States, which make up the majority of the U.S. Cotton Belt, have compacted soils and 66 % of cotton farmers in Australia were affected by soil compaction, while other research shows a 27 % yield loss for the crop in these conditions. On the other hand, most studies carried out in systems that aim to reduce soil compaction, have shown that improvements in soil physical properties related to decompaction result in an increase in cotton plant yield.

Forecasting Agricultural Commodity Prices Using Dual Input Attention LSTM

Fluctuations in agricultural commodity prices affect the supply and demand of agricultural commodities and have a significant impact on consumers. Accurate prediction of agricultural commodity prices would facilitate the reduction of risk caused by price fluctuations. This paper proposes a model called the dual input attention long short-term memory (DIA-LSTM) for the efficient prediction of agricultural commodity prices. DIA-LSTM is trained using various variables that affect the price of agricultural commodities, such as meteorological data, and trading volume data, and can identify the feature correlation and temporal relationships of multivariate time series input data. Further, whereas conventional models predominantly focus on the static main production area (which is selected for each agricultural commodity beforehand based on statistical data), DIA-LSTM utilizes the dynamic main production area (which is selected based on the production of agricultural commodities in each region). To evaluate DIA-LSTM, it was applied to the monthly price prediction of cabbage and radish in the South Korean market. Using meteorological information for the dynamic main production area, it achieved 2.8% to 5.5% lower mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) than that of the conventional model that uses meteorological information for the static main production area. Furthermore, it achieved 1.41% to 4.26% lower MAPE than that of benchmark models. Thus, it provides a new idea for agricultural commodity price forecasting and has the potential to stabilize the supply and demand of agricultural products.

Causality in structural vector autoregressions: Science or sorcery?

AbstractThis paper presents the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) as a method for estimating dynamic causal effects in agricultural and resource economics. We have a pedagogical purpose; we aim the presentation at economists trained primarily in microeconometrics. The SVAR is a model of a system, whereas a reduced‐form microeconometric study aims to estimate the causal effect of one variable on another. The system approach produces estimates of a complete set of causal relationships among the variables, but it requires strong assumptions to do so. We explain these assumptions and describe similarities and differences with the classical instrumental variables (IV) model. We demonstrate that the population analogue of the Wald IV estimator for a particular causal effect is identical to the ratio of two impulse responses from an SVAR. We further demonstrate that incorrect identification assumptions about some components of the SVAR do not necessarily invalidate the estimated causal effects of other components. We present an SVAR analysis of global supply and demand for agricultural commodities, which was previously examined using IV. We illustrate the additional economic insights that the SVAR reveals, and we articulate the additional assumptions upon which those insights rest.

Factors affecting the change of land function from paddy field to housing in North Sinjai District

Along with the increasing population and the development of economic structure, land needs for non-agricultural activities tend to continue to increase. This trend makes the transfer of agricultural land functions difficult to avoid. Land transfer starts from the demand for agricultural commodities, especially food commodities that are less elastic to income compared to the demand for non-agricultural commodities. This study aims to find out the factors that influence the transfer of land functions from rice fields to housing in North Sinjai District. The results showed that during the period studied, namely from December 2017 to January 2018, factors that influenced the transfer of land functions from rice fields to residential land, namely land area, and the location of land partially had a real effect on the transfer of land functions, while the factors of education level, number of dependents, urgent needs and neighbors who converted their land partially had no real effect on the transfer of household land functions of respondents in transfer of land functions from rice fields to housing.

Agricultural Landscapes in Brandenburg, Germany: An Analysis of Characteristics and Spatial Patterns

The increasing demand for agricultural commodities for food and energy purposes has led to intensified agricultural land management, along with the homogenization of landscapes, adverse biodiversity effects and robustness of landscapes regarding the provision of ecosystem services. At the same time, subsidized organic agriculture and extensive grassland use supports the provision of ecosystem services. Yet little is understood about how to evaluate a landscape’s potential to contribute to protecting and enhancing biodiversity and ecosystem services. To address this gap, we use plot-level data from the Integrated Administration and Control System (IACS) for Germany’s federal state of Brandenburg, and based on a two-step cluster analysis, we identify six types of agricultural landscapes. These clusters differ in landscape structure, diversity and measures for agricultural land management intensity. Agricultural land in Brandenburg is dominated by high shares of cropland but fragmented differently. Lands under organic management and those with a high share of maize show strong spatial autocorrelation, pointing to local clusters. Identification of different types of landscapes permits locally- and region-adapted designs of environmental and agricultural policy measures improves outcome-oriented environmental policy impact evaluation and landscape planning. Our approach allows transferability to other EU regions.

How does trade policy uncertainty affect agriculture commodity prices?

The present paper explores the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on agricultural commodity prices (ACP) by employing bootstrap full- and subsample rolling-window Granger causality tests. We find that TPU has both positive and negative effects on ACP, suggesting that TPU may change the supply of and demand for agricultural commodities, leading to fluctuations in ACP. These results support the hypotheses derived from the general equilibrium model, which highlights that TPU can significantly affect ACP. In turn, we find a positive impact of ACP on TPU, indicating that the agricultural commodity market reflects trade conditions in advance. In the context of Sino-U.S. trade frictions and the COVID-19 pandemic, the interaction between TPU and ACP can provide insights for governments to prevent large fluctuations in agricultural commodity markets and stabilize the national economy.

Sustainable Management Methods of Orchard Insect Pests

The current need for sustainable resource management is increasingly urgent, as demand for agricultural commodities is rising rapidly as the world's population grows [...].

The importance of agricultural yield elasticity for indirect land use change: a Bayesian network analysis for robust uncertainty quantification

ABSTRACT A major barrier to realising biofuels’ climate change mitigation potential is uncertainty concerning carbon emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC). Central to this uncertainty is the extent to which yields can respond dynamically to increased demand for agricultural commodities. This study examines the elasticity of soybean and corn yields in the USA for 1990–2017 using Bayesian network models to robustly quantify uncertainty. The central finding is that a single parameter value for yield elasticity does not adequately represent the effects of technology, policy and price pressures through time. The models demonstrate the limiting role of technological progress as well as farmers’ capital investment in response to system shocks. Results suggest evaluation of parameter uncertainty alone is unlikely to capture a full range of future ILUC scenarios and reiterate the need for ILUC studies to use probabilistic approaches as standard to robustly inform climate change mitigation policies.

Mixed Ag: A Regime-Based Analysis of Multi-Asset Agriculture Portfolios

For some time now, the prospect that the world is entering a new epoch of elevated prices for agricultural commodities has been a focus of both policymakers concerned with the food security of their citizens and investors looking to benefit from a potential secular uptrend in the demand for food. Investors most commonly access agriculture in public markets through funds that invest in agricultural commodity futures or the common stock of companies that engage in agribusiness. In general, funds that invest in agricultural commodities are either dedicated equity or futures managers. However, there are potentially significant performance benefits to investing in agricultural commodities through a single multi-asset vehicle composed of both agricultural commodity futures and agribusiness stocks. To that end, in this article the author examines the performance of a multi-asset agriculture portfolio in periods of high and low economic growth and compares it with the performance of its individual equity and futures components, as well as the broader stock market and investment-grade bonds. The author finds that in terms of return generation, risk mitigation, and diversification potential relative to core stocks and bonds, the multi-asset agriculture strategy makes a compelling case for inclusion alongside traditional strategies within institutional investors’ portfolios. TOPICS:Portfolio management/multi-asset allocation, performance measurement Key Findings • Global population and economic development trends support an increase in demand for agricultural commodities in the coming years. • A dedicated multi-asset agricultural strategy composed of agribusiness stocks and agricultural commodity futures can serve as a diversifying strategy in portfolios containing broad exposure to stocks and investment-grade bonds in regimes of both high and low economic growth. • A multi-asset agricultural strategy is also found to produce an attractive upside/downside return profile relative to broad equity and its agricultural equity and futures components across high and low growth regimes. It also exhibits a significantly higher mean upside return relative to investment-grade bonds across both regimes.

Socio-Economic Drivers of Degradation and Their Implication on Conservation of River Lumi Riparian Ecosystem in Kenya

Riparian forests ecosystems play significant role in biodiversity conservation and provision of ecosystem goods and services which support local livelihoods. However, riparian ecosystems are threatened by degradation attributed to anthropogenic activities. Understanding the interaction between anthropogenic activities and socio-economic factors, and their associated impact on riparian degradation is essential for designing appropriate management strategies for these ecosystems. This study assessed the socio-economic factors that drive degradation and their implication on conservation of River Lumi riparian ecosystem. Semi-structured questionnaires, Focus Group Discussion (FGDs) and key informant interviews were used to collect the data. The findings indicate that crop farming and livestock production were the main sources of livelihood practiced by 84% and 70% of the households respectively. Consequently, agricultural intensification resulting from increased demand for agricultural commodities (33%), over-grazing coupled with influx of livestock from private ranches and neighbouring pastoralist Maasai community (20%), and deforestation fuelled by population increase (17%) were the main drivers of degradation in River Lumi riparian ecosystem. The findings indicate that about 91% of the adjacent communities are dependent on River Lumi for their sustenance and their livelihoods will be affected by continued degradation of the riparian ecosystem; thus there is need for development of appropriate management strategies including sustainable livelihood systems to conserve River Lumi riparian ecosystem.

Representing large-scale land acquisitions in land use change scenarios for the Lao PDR

Agricultural large-scale land acquisition (LSLA) is a process that is currently not captured by land change models. We present a novel land change modeling approach that includes processes governing LSLAs and simulates their interactions with other land systems. LSLAs differ from other land change processes in two ways: (1) their changes affect hundreds to thousands of contiguous hectares at a time, far surpassing other land change processes, e.g., smallholder agriculture, and (2) as policy makers value LSLA as desirable or undesirable, their agency significantly affects LSLA occurrence. To represent these characteristics in a land change model, we allocate LSLAs as multi-cell patches to represent them at scale while preserving detail in the representation of other dynamics. Moreover, LSLA land systems are characterized to respond to an explicit political demand for LSLA effects, in addition to a demand for various agricultural commodities. The model is applied to simulate land change in Laos until 2030, using three contrasting scenarios: (1) a target to quadruple the area of LSLA, (2) a moratorium for new LSLA, and (3) no target for LSLA. Scenarios yield drastically different land change trajectories despite having similar demands for agricultural commodities. A high level of LSLA impedes smallholders’ engagement with rubber or cash crops, while a moratorium on LSLA results in increased smallholder involvement in cash cropping and rubber production. This model goes beyond existing land change models by capturing the heterogeneity of scales of land change processes and the competition between different land users instigated by LSLA.

Analyzing the Impacts of Investment on the Empowerment and Welfare of Rural Households (Case Study: Malavi Dehestan of Poldokhtar County)

Analyzing the Impacts of Investment on the Empowerment and Welfare of Rural Households (Case Study: Malavi Dehestan of Poldokhtar County)

A Generic Model for Analyzing Nexus Issues of Householdss Bioenergy Use

Bioenergy is a major source of energy in developing countries. However, increasing demand for agricultural commodities can lead to a stronger competition for natural resources with the bioenergy production. The nexus among energy, food production and natural resource use may result in trade-offs and synergies. Accordingly, it is important to consider multidimensional aspects of bioenergy, assess the potential for bioenergy options for meeting rural households’ demand for energy, while increasing their incomes, enhancing food security and reducing potential negative effects. For addressing these interrelated issues within a single framework, we develop a generic household model that allows analyzing the ex-ante potential impacts of bioenergy use on rural households in developing countries. The model relies on dynamic programming approach and is able to evaluate the impacts of bioenergy on livelihoods of households, on environment, and on natural resource use over time. The model explicitly considers decision making among various members of household, including men, women and children. We also trace direct and spillover impacts of policy and technological changes among different socio-economic categories of households.

The informal economy and economic volatility

The informal economy has traditionally played an important role in most Caribbean economies. Indeed, small-family-owned plots supplied a considerable domestic demand for agricultural commodities. Most Caribbean economies are now primarily service-oriented; however, the informal sector still plays a major role in most of their economies. There are disadvantages to an over reliance on the informal sector: low-tax yields and a focus mainly on the domestic market. This paper argues, nonetheless, that the informal sector is a key mechanism for insulating households from the effects of large negative economic shocks. The study therefore investigates the effects of the size of the informal economy on economic volatility in the Caribbean with emphasis on consumption volatility. The results are not meant to argue for policies to support the growth and penetration of the informal sector, but instead for policies aimed at supporting entrepreneurship within the region.

SEASONALITY OF DEMAND FOR SOME EGYPTIAN VEGETABLES IN Cairo El- Abour MARKET

The study showed the the importance of the effect of seasonality in determining the amounts received for the transit market of vegetable crops in Egypt. As it turned out great linkage between the quantities and prices of vegetables in the transit market, which reflects the importance of reconsidering the random cropping and where there is no minimum or organizing thread. Where it should be to regulate the use of agricultural resources limited to Egypt and so achieve the maximum return for producers and consumers and the marketer and reduces wastage of resources in making a glitch between supply and demand, resulting in higher prices hurt consumer Login or drop in prices hurt farmers' incomes. It is worth noting that the changes in the agricultural sector, which is the main activity in the Egyptian countryside, especially in the light of economic liberalization policies such as the abolition of support for agricultural inputs, and the liberalization of prices of agricultural and left are determined by market forces, with the demolition of Tzawar marketing system for Khaddrady to irregular or balance of supply with the demand after the policy of economic liberalization in the agriculture sector, which increased from large fluctuations in prices as a result of increasing the gap between supply and demand for agricultural commodities, and all of these reasons have led to an increase in poverty in the countryside and in Egypt in particular. This reflects the importance of Tzawar marketing system and return to the installation Almsola Central, which balances the needs of the consumer growing and limited agricultural resources by reducing the size of the gap between supply and demand, which reduces the price differences during the months of the year and which is reflected in the increase in income and welfare of the consumer and the producer together. The return of the agricultural cycle of the most important requirements for achieving balance in the prices of vegetables in Egypt and reduces loss in the limited agricultural resources and achieve the protection of soil fertility and reduces the need for fertilizers and pesticides. This regulation of the market productive agricultural reduce the imbalance between supply and demand, which increases the efficiency of the distribution of the use of agricultural resources among the wider use of alternative optimal resource allocation and reduce the waste of limited agricultural resources. Decreases as well as huge losses for producers and consumers at the micro level as well to reduce the negative effects on the macro level by reducing imports and increasing exports, where there is improved efficiency performance in the Egyptian agricultural sector at the micro level and kidneys.

Fighting for Rents: Agricultural Windfall Gains and Social Change in Land-Abundant Developing Countries

In recent years, a global increase in demand for agricultural commodities and land has contributed to increasing agricultural prices. This trend can be expected to continue in the future, and may result in significantly higher land rents. This paper investigates the potential distributional effects of increasing land rents in land-abundant developing countries from a theoretical viewpoint, and provides historical case examples to support the theoretical propositions. It is proposed that the specific characteristics of a rent-generating natural resource have implications for the concentration of economic and political power and hence the distribution of rents. Specifically, when it comes to agricultural land, the characteristics of land imply that the organizational capacity of farmers is a crucial determinant of the distribution of agricultural rents. The historical case examples indicate that the extent of organizational capacity may be determined by land inequality, the heterogeneity of farmers and the political environment

Stored product protection in Africa: Past, present and future

More than 55% of Africans earn their livelihood from agriculture, which is also the key to economic development of the continent. The agriculture is largely traditional and grains constitute the bulk of food production. Sorghum, maize, rice, wheat and millet for cereals and cowpeas, dry beans, groundnut, chickpea and bambara groundnut for pulses, are most common in Africa. Because agricultural production is seasonal while the demands for agricultural commodities are more evenly spread throughout the year, grain storage becomes a particularly important agricultural activity. Grain storage is done on-farm, peasant farmers’ residences (family granaries), community stores and large warehouses. Since most of the grains produced in Africa are destined for human consumption, storage in family granaries predominates. Unfortunately, the technology and management of family granaries and other storage structures are seriously wanting. These predispose the grains to serious attacks from biotic constraints such as insects, rodents, birds and micro-organisms. The rate of insect proliferation in these storage structures could be alarmingly high, especially with the warm climate in tropical Africa. Annual grain losses of up to 50% in cereals and 100% in pulses have been reported, although average losses stand at roughly 20%. Major insects that attack cereals and pulses include grain weevils, grain borers, grain beetles and grain moths. Pest prevention, early detection and pest control would greatly reduce grain losses during storage. Control methods comprise physical, chemical and phytochemical measures with emphasis on the use of traditional botanical pesticides. This paper discusses the major cereals and pulses stored in Africa, the different storage structures, storage losses, constraints, control measures, and the relationship between storage structures and pest infestation. It also attempts to highlight peculiarities to the African storage environment and research trends over the years, and suggests recommendations for improving grain storage in the continent.Keywords: Stored products, Grains, Pests, Protection, Africa

Managing the Tropical Agriculture Revolution

ABSTRACT Industrial production of beef, soybeans, cotton, and biofuels is expanding into the tropical latitudes of South America and may soon reach tropical Africa in the most important agricultural transition since the Green Revolution. This shift is driven by the shortage of land suitable for expansion of cultivation and grazing in the temperate zone, increased global demands for agricultural commodities, the rising price of petroleum, and technological advances. At risk are some of the world's most ecologically and culturally-rich landscapes in the world, such as the Amazon rainforest, the Cerrado woodland complex, and African savannas. A strategy for reducing the negative ecological and social impacts of this transition could harness the rising environmental and social standards imposed by many importers and purchasers of agricultural commodities, similar reforms underway among “Equator” banks, growing corporate governance, and Brazil's prominence in international diplomacy. Integrated certification of commodity sanitation, compliance with rigorous environmental standards, and sound labor practices could become the norm for participation in commodity markets. These reforms in agro-industrial behavior could be reinforced by trade agreements and strategic support from non-governmental organizations.

A Special Issue of JA&WMA on Agricultural Air Quality: State of the Science

The world’s population has grown, from approximately 1.5 billion at the beginning of the 20th century to more than 6 billion today. This population increase has been accompanied by the rapid growth of intensive agriculture with its associated, significant impacts on the environment. Over the next 50 yr, the Earth’s human population is predicted to increase from the current level to more than 9 billion, creating a parallel or disproportionate increase in demand for agricultural commodities— both crop and animal. Without scientific research to inform policy decisions, there will likely be greater environmental impacts associated with this future growth.1–3 Though in transition, U.S. agriculture is still diverse, ranging from large, highly intensive and specialized commercial holdings to subsistence (i.e., family owned) farming, using mainly traditional practices. Consequently, impacts on the environment vary in scale and intensity and may be positive or negative. However, an increasing body of evidence shows that the increased size and geographical concentration of animal-feeding operations and agri