Demand For Bank Loans Research Articles

Predicting Bank Loan Eligibility Using Machine Learning

With the increasing needs of people, the demand for bank loans also rises. Each day, banks receive numerous loan applications from various customers and individuals, however, not all applicants are approved. Banks typically assess an applicant's eligibility before processing a loan application, a process that can be time-consuming and complex. In evaluating loan applications and making credit decisions, banks often rely on their credit scoring and risk assessment systems. Nevertheless, there are still cases where some applicants default on their payments annually, resulting in significant financial losses for financial institutions. In this research, we utilized machine learning algorithms to analyze a dataset of approved loans and predict which applicants are most deserving of a loan. The study incorporates customers' historical data, including factors such as age, income type, loan annuity, last credit bureau report, organization type, and length of employment. Various machine learning methods like Random Forest, XGBoost, Adaboost, Lightgbm, Decision tree, and K-Nearest Neighbor were utilized to identify the most influential features that impact prediction outcomes. These algorithms were then compared using standard metrics, with Logistic Regression achieving the highest accuracy rate of 92%. Key Words: Bank Loans, Logistic Regression, Credit Report, Risk Assessment

Macroprudential Policy with Liquidity Panics

Abstract We study the optimality of macroprudential policies in an environment where banks provide liquidity to firms. Informational frictions between banks can cause interbank market freezes, prompting firms to accumulate their own liquid assets. Liquidity hoarding by firms in turn reduces the demand for bank loans and bank profitability, makes interbank market freezes even more likely, and may ultimately trigger a self-fulfilling bad equilibrium. Such “liquidity panics” provide an additional rationale for liquidity requirements on banks, which alleviate frictions in the banking sector and, paradoxically, can increase aggregate investment. Instead, policies encouraging bank lending can have the opposite effect.

Ethnicity and bank lending before and during COVID-19

PurposeUsing ethnicity as our point of focus, the authors consider the dynamics of the demand for bank loans, and the willingness of banks to supply them, as the UK economy entered the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 with a particular focus on potential behavioural differences on the demand-side and discrimination on the supply-side. In doing so we directly address crisis induced financial concerns and how they played out in the context of ethnicity.Design/methodology/approachUsing the most recent ten quarterly waves of the UK SME Finance Monitor survey the authors consider whether ethnicity of the business owner impacts on the decision to apply for bank loans in the first instance. The authors then question whether ethnicity influences the banks decision to meet or reject the request for a bank loan.FindingsThe authors’ pre-COVID-19 results show that there were no ethnic differences in loan application and success rates. During COVID-19, both white and ethnic business loan application rates rose significantly, but the scale of this increase was greater for ethnic businesses. The presence of government 100% guaranteed lending also increased general loan success rates, but again the scale of this improvement was greater for ethnic businesses.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors show very clearly that differences in the willingness of banks to supply loans to SMEs relate very explicitly to firm specific characteristics and ethnicity either plays no additional role or actually leads to improved loan outcomes. The data is for the UK and for a very unique COVID time which may mean that wider generalisability is unwise.Practical implicationsEthnic business owners should not worry about lending discrimination or be discouraged from applying for loans.Social implicationsThe authors identify at worst no lending discrimination and at best positive ethnic discrimination.Originality/valueThis is one of the largest COVID-19 period studies into the financing of ethnic businesses.

Prior credit assessment of long-term SME projects with non-standard cash flows

Over the past three decades, the relative bank loan demand has changed due to the arising small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Therefore, banks in their operations face the problem of processing an ever-increasing number of loan applications. The aim of this paper is to develop an auxiliary approach to assessing the prior creditworthiness of long-term SME projects with nonstandard cash flows.This study reveals how the principles of value-based management can be incorporated into the process of borrower’s creditworthiness assessment to improve the process of screening loan applications. For this, the internal rate of return was used as a criterion for loan granting decision at the initial stage of loan underwriting.An algorithm for the preliminary evaluation of loan applications is proposed and is based on the principle of maximizing the shareholder value of banks. This algorithm helps to define the credit terms taking into consideration the distribution of positive cash flows throughout the project’s expected economic life, calculate the possible real effective interest rate concerning the borrower’s nonstandard cash flow schedule, make a rough analysis on the economic efficiency of lending and state the necessary criterion to initiate the procedure of loan underwriting for the projects with nonstandard cash flow schedules. The proposed estimation algorithm stemming from the IRR-approach for the cash flow analysis can also be initially used by a borrower as a tool for credit solvency self-testing via screening of periods with corresponding cash flows that can be used for loan servicing.

Assessing Effects of Capital Adequacy Ratio Requirements on Loan Demand of Kenya Commercial Bank Eldoret Town

Security of investors' reserve remains the significant worry of bank controllers. It is in this regard the capital sufficiency becomes significant and imperative. Capital adequacy is an origination that results from reworking the banks' current capital structure to rebuild the banking industry against the widespread establishment. This research's objective was to assess the effect of capital adequacy ratio requirements on the Bank of Kenya Commercial Bank's loan demand. The study adopted the Capital Buffer Theory. The study reviewed related literature to capital adequacy ratio requirements on the efficiency in the Bank. This study adopted an exploratory research design. The sample population of interest in this study consisted of all 23-bank employees of KCB, Referral Branch. The study adopted a census survey. The following research questions guided the interview. How effective would be capital adequacy ratio requirements on loan demand of Kenya Commercial Bank? The study used interview guides in the collection of data. Qualitative analysis was used to analyze the perception data collected from the key informants. Joint subjects were determined, and qualitative data, organizing, and discussing based on the main objective were done. These were presented using grouped data collected in the form of discussion. From the interviewed respondents, it was found that there might be significant impacts of capital adequacy ratio requirements on loan demand of KCB. The elasticity of loan rate due to capital adequacy ratio requirement might affect loan demand, implying that there would be a change in loan demand for every percentage change in the loan rate. The study recommends that bank regulators be keen on the banks' capital adequacy ratio by laying down financial regulations on liquidity since financial regulation aims to enable banks to improve liquidity and solvency. Stricter regulation may be suitable for bank stability, but not for bank efficiency; restricting banks may lower bank efficiency and increase the probability of a banking crisis. There is a need for capital supplementation to keep up with Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) since stricter capital adequacy, robust supervision, and market discipline power promotes technical efficiency. Keywords: Loan, Demand, Ratio, Capital, Bank DOI: 10.7176/RJFA/12-6-06 Publication date: March 31 st 2021

Monetary Transmission through Bank Balance Sheet Synergies

We document the reserve supply channel of Quantitative Easing (QE) that has the unintended consequence of reducing bank lending to firms. Each dollar of central bank reserves created by QE crowds out 13 cents of bank lending. We reach this conclusion using a structural model that is estimated with instrumental variables for deposit and loan demand across regions of the country. Our results depend on two key estimates: the elasticity of demand for bank loans and how the cost of supplying loans is impacted by a bank's holding of reserves. We find that each $1 trillion of reserves in the banking system raises the cost of capital for loans by 1.5 basis points, leading to a 3.42% reduction in the quantity of corporate loans demanded. In a counterfactual simulation, we show that the $2.7 trillion of reserves created by QE reduced bank lending to firms by over $500 billion but had modest impacts on deposit and mortgage quantities. Our results imply that forcing the banking sector to hold the large quantity of reserves created by QE reduces QE's ability to stimulate the economy. This unintended consequence of QE could potentially be alleviated by the relaxation of the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) regulation.

Making Room for the Needy: The Credit-Reallocation Effects of the ECB’s Corporate QE*

Abstract We analyze how the ECB’s purchases of corporate bonds under its Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) affected the financing of Spanish firms. We first document that the announcement of the CSPP in March 2016 raised firms’ propensity to issue bonds. The flipside was a drop in the demand for bank loans by bond issuers. Around 75% of the drop in loans previously made to debt issuers was redirected to other, smaller nonbond issuing firms. This reallocation process was led by banks with weaker liquidity positions experiencing credit outflows, which extended credit to the same firms they were rationing prior to the CSPP. This positive credit supply shock raised the real investment of nonissuing firms. The concomitant ECB’s Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO-II) is estimated to have contributed to amplifying the credit-reallocation effect triggered by the CSPP.

Modeling the Behaviour of Corporate Demand for Credit in Mauritius before and after the Global Financial Crisis Under Conditions of Excess Liquidity by Banks

This Paper proves that the global financial crisis (GFC) has had a major influence in altering the pattern and subsequent demand for corporate finance in Mauritius. By applying probability models, it is found that bonus issuance is a key factor that influences the demand and supply for both debt and equity financing. Firms consider debt repayment variable of upmost essence to loan application and provision responses. Large companies, comprising of entities falling under the wing of the manufacturing, industrial and retail sector found ease in obtaining bank loans prior to the crisis due to the positive rating and nature of their respective businesses. Conversely, small and medium enterprises found themselves relaying heavily on startup loans, of limited amounts, as they failed to qualify for greater loan applications due to their inability to meet the adequate requirements. Corporate entities on their end, had a much greater preference for equity financing prior to the crisis. The aftermath of the crisis nevertheless negatively influenced the pattern of financing for all categories of businesses. A more regulated framework was adopted by banks, on an international level which caused banks to be more cautious and limited in providing finance to entities. Even with excess liquidity, banks have declined demand for bank loans.

Procyclical leverage: Evidence from banks’ lending and financing decisions

Abstract Middle-aged people have a higher demand for bank loans compared to other age groups and banks that are active in regions with more middle-aged residents are exposed to higher loan demand. This generates a geographically varying demand for loans. Using this variation, we show that banks increase their loan supply and expand their balance sheet with an increase in their loan demand. They finance this expansion mainly with debt. This leads to a decrease in their Tier 1 ratios and an increase in their leverage, i.e., leverage is procyclical. By differentiating between worse-and better-capitalized banks, we highlight the importance of bank capital in banks’ lending and financing decisions.

Did Negative Interest Rates Improve Bank Lending?

Since 2012 several central banks have introduced a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) aimed at boosting real spending by facilitating an increase in the supply and demand for bank loans. We employ a bank-level dataset comprising 16,675 banks from 33 OECD member countries over 2012-2016 and a difference-in-differences methodology to analyze whether NIRP resulted in a change in bank lending in NIRP-adopter countries compared to those that did not adopt the policy. Our results suggest that following the introduction of negative interest rates, bank lending was weaker in NIRP-adopter countries than in countries that did not adopt the policy. The result is robust to a wide range of checks. This adverse NIRP effect appears to have been stronger for banks that were smaller, more dependent on retail deposit funding, less well capitalized, had business models reliant on interest income, and operate in more competitive markets. NIRP also appears to have canceled out the stimulus impact of other forms of unconventional monetary policy

Gender and bank lending after the global financial crisis: are women entrepreneurs safer bets?

Using gender as a theoretical framework, we analyse the dynamics of bank lending to small- and medium-sized enterprises (SME) in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis. Using six waves of the SME Finance Monitor survey, we apply a formal Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition to test whether gender impacts upon the supply and demand for debt finance by women. Reflecting established evidence, we found women had a lower demand for bank loans; contradicting accepted wisdom however, we found that women who did apply were more likely to be successful. We argue that feminised risk aversion might inform more conservative applications during a period of financial uncertainty which may be beneficial for women in terms of gaining loans. However, we also uncover more subtle evidence suggesting that bank decisions may differ for women who may be unfairly treated in terms of collateral but regarded more positively when holding large cash balances.

Bond Finance, Bank Finance, and Bank Regulation

In this paper, I build a continuous-time macro-finance model in which firms can access both bond credit and bank credit. The model captures the simple idea that the presence of bond financing lowers the price elasticity of demand for bank loans. I find that the optimal capital adequacy ratio is quantitatively sensitive to the presence of bond financing and that models would overstate the banking sector's recovery rate if they omit bond financing. Furthermore, the model highlights that an economy's optimal capital requirement highly depends on the efficiency of its bankruptcy procedure and the risk profile of its real sector.

СТАН I ПРОБЛЕМИ РОЗВИТКУ БАНКІВСЬКОГО КРЕДИТУВАННЯ СІЛЬСЬКОГОСПОДАРСЬКИХ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ УКРАЇНИ

Досліджено теоретичні аспекти надання банківських кредитів підприємствам сільського господарства. Розкрито специфіку проблем, з якими стикаються учасники ринку банківського кредитування аграрної сфери в Україні. Акцентовано на тому, що в аграрному секторі традиційні перепони на шляху активування банківського кредитування доповнюються низькою якістю застави, високою ризикованістю агробізнесу, неефективністю кредитної політики, неврахуванням специфіки галузі тощо. Їх усунення передбачає симбіоз управлінських рішень багатьох суспільних інституцій. У цьому руслі важлива подальша імплементація ухвалених державою програмних документів з отримання часткової компенсації відсоткових ставок за залученими кредитами і поліпшення кредитного клімату. Досліджено динаміку обсягів і структури банківського кредитування сільсьгосппідприємств. Попри розвиток партнерських форм залучення позикових коштів, банківське кредитування перманентно слугує драйвером розвитку вітчизняних сільгосппідприємств. Свідченням цього є прискорене зростання обсягів кредитів, виданих таким підприємствам порівняно з кредитуванням підприємств інших секторів економіки. Доведено зміцнення позицій галузі сільського господарства на ринку кредитів та їхній позитивний вплив на виробництво сільгосппродукції. Протягом 2010—2016 рр. збільшення банківського кредитування на млрд грн призводило до збільшення виробництва продукції сільськогосподарськими підприємствами на 82 грн/га, усіма господарствами – на 57 грн/га. Економетричний аналіз виявив, що зміна ВВП України на 78,1 % залежить від зміни кредитування сільськогосподарських корпорацій. Якщо кредити сільгосппідприємствам терміном на п’ять років збільшаться на 1 млн грн, то можна очікувати збільшення обсягу ВВП у середньому на 0,164 млрд грн. Окреслено напрями поліпшення кредитування сільсьгосппідприємств, серед яких: застосування дієвого стратегічного напряму кредитної політики банківських установ – аутсорсингу; державна фінансова підтримка за рахунок компенсації кредитних ставок для аграріїв; розвиток кредитної кооперації.

Did Negative Interest Rates Improve Bank Lending?

Since 2012 several central banks have introduced a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) aimed at boosting real spending by facilitating an increase in the supply and demand for bank loans. We employ a bank-level dataset comprising 6558 banks from 33 OECD member countries over 2012-2016 and a matched difference-in differences estimator to analyze whether NIRP resulted in a change in bank lending in NIRP-adopter countries compared to those that did not adopt the policy. Our results suggest that following the introduction of negative interest rates, bank lending was weaker in NIRP-adopter countries. The result is robust to a wide range of checks. This adverse NIRP effect appears to have been stronger for banks that were smaller, more dependent on retail deposit funding, less well capitalized, had business models reliant on interest income, and operated in more competitive markets.

Small Firms, Corruption, and Demand for Credit. Evidence from the Euro Area

In this paper, we aim to assess how the quality of the institutional environment – identified according to the level of corruption perceived in a country – may affect the access to credit for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). Based on a sample of 68,115 observations – drawn from the ECB-SAFE survey – related to MSMEs chartered in 11 euro area countries, we investigate whether the level of corruption affects their demand for bank loans during the period 2009–2014.Overall, we find that the degree of corruption seems to play a role in the applications for bank loans when small firms are under investigation. Interestingly, results highlight that small businesses chartered in highly corrupt countries face a greater probability of self-restraint regarding their loan applications (about 7.4%) than small firms located in low-corruption economies (around 6%). The results are robust to various model specifications and econometric methodologies. Our findings suggest that anti-corruption policies and measures enhancing transparency in the economy may be crucial in reducing the negative spillovers generated by a low-quality institutional environment on the access to credit by small firms.

Making Room for the Needy: The Credit-Reallocation Effects of the ECBBs Corporate QE

We analyse how the European Central Bank’s purchases of corporate bonds under its Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) affected the financing of Spanish non-financial firms. We first document that the announcement of the CSPP in March 2016 raised significantly the firms’ propensity to issue CSPP-eligible bonds. The flipside was a drop in the demand for bank loans by these firms. This drop in the demand for credit by bond-issuers, which are usually large corporations, unchained a positive and significant side effect on the flow of new loans extended to firms that do not issue bonds, typically smaller. Specifically, we find that around 78% of the drop in loans previously given to bond issuers was redirected to other companies, which led them to raise investment. This reallocation of credit was amplified by the ECB’s Targeted Longer Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO).

Endogeneity of Money Supply: Evidence From Turkey

<p>There is a long discussion among academics and central bankers about the theories of money supply. According to the exogenous view, central banks have the full control over money supply via policy actions including the adjustments of interest rates and reserve ratios, both of which alter commercial banks’ lending decisions. However, the theory of endogenous money supply emphasizes the role of demand for bank loans in money creation. More specifically, banks create money by meeting the demand of economic agents. In this study, we investigate which of the money supply theories holds in Turkish economy for the period 2006-2015 by employing cointegration and causality tests. Our findings show that the causality runs from bank loans to money supply both in the short and long terms, which supports the endogenous view in a sense that central bank and the banks fully meet the total demand for money in Turkish economy.</p>

Making Room for the Needy: The Credit-Reallocation Effects of the ECB's Corporate QE

We analyse how the European Central Bank’s purchases of corporate bonds under its Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) affected the financing of Spanish non-financial firms. We first document that the announcement of the CSPP in March 2016 raised significantly the firms’ propensity to issue CSPP-eligible bonds. The flipside was a drop in the demand for bank loans by these firms. This drop in the demand for credit by bond-issuers, which are usually large corporations, unchained a positive and significant side effect on the flow of new loans extended to firms that do not issue bonds, typically smaller. Specifically, we find that around 78% of the drop in loans previously given to bond issuers was redirected to other companies, which led them to raise investment. This reallocation of credit was amplified by the ECB’s Targeted Longer Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO).

Loan interest rate pass-through and changes after the financial crisis: Japan’s evidence

We estimate interest rate pass-through in the loan market using an individual bank-based panel dataset from Japan. Previous studies using data from European countries have presented a number of common findings, including that banks with a high proportion of relationship lending tend to set lower pass-through. In this respect, we have obtained similar results using a dataset for Japan going back to the early 2000s. We further examine the influence of borrowing firms’ balance sheet characteristics on loan interest rate pass-through, and find that these additional factors are also important determinants for pass-through dispersion. However, after the recent global financial crisis, even banks with a high proportion of relationship lending have largely lowered loan interest rates by raising pass-through, and pass-through has not necessarily been determined in accordance with borrowing firms’ balance sheet characteristics. These results differ from those of recent studies on European countries. Possible background factors explaining this change are that (i) pressure to lower loan interest rates has risen due to extensive monetary easing and greater lending competition among banks, while Japan’s banking system as a whole has maintained its resilience in the post-crisis period; (ii) demand for bank loans has increased substantially due to disruptions in the market for alternative funding sources, such as commercial paper and corporate bonds; and (iii) public measures to increase bank loans have been broadly introduced in Japan.

The Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy and its Macroeconomic Effects: Evidence from a Sample of Selected Euro Area Countries

Monetary policy measures can affect the supply and demand for bank loans through several transmission mechanisms: the credit channel (that encompasses the bank lending channel and the balance sheet channel), the bank capital channel, and the risk-taking channel. This paper aims to provide evidence on whether the bank landing channel in the selected euro area countries as a whole is operational. Unlike the existent studies we test for differences of the bank lending channel relevance for the large and the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). We apply a macro identification strategy to identify loan supply shocks attributable to the banks’ balance sheet constraints and use them in a typical monetary policy VAR model to verify the existence of the bank lending channel. Additionally, we provide evidence on how the shocks in loan activity affect output and inflation. The analysis of impulse responses reveals that a negative shock (an increase in the policy rate) leads to a significant increase in credit standards for large enterprises as well as the SMEs. This implies that the restrictive monetary policy shock increases banks’ balance sheet constraints and that the banks in the short run respond by tightening credit standards for enterprises. Tightening credit standards shock in turn negatively impacts the growth of business loans. The empirical results thus provide evidence that the bank lending channel is operational. A negative shock to the credit standards reduces output in the short run, yet no significant impact on inflation can be observed. When banks unexpectedly tighten credit standards for SMEs the monetary policy (European central bank) seems to respond in a more pronounced manner (by reducing monetary policy rate more) than when banks tighten credit standards for large enterprises.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.27.2.12647