Deliberate Events Research Articles

A playbook on investigations into biological events of ambiguous origin

ABSTRACT Biological events—including outbreaks and pandemics, biological-weapons use, and accidental laboratory release—have the potential to be extremely disruptive. The ability to accurately investigate, identify the origins of, and attribute these events is critical for deterring deliberate events and implementing interventions to prevent future natural or accidental events. However, historical examples of biological-event attribution and origins investigations illustrate significant gaps in processes, from technical capabilities to communications, and have not resulted in conclusive consensus among decision makers, the public, and scientists. The research described in this article aimed to assess attitudes and expectations of a broad range of stakeholders regarding investigations and the evidence they generated for biological attribution. The authors interviewed 41 experts in disciplines related to attribution and investigations and then analyzed the interview content using a mixed-methods approach. Interviews generated a list of factors to consider when planning or conducting investigations. Among the interviewees, opinions varied by field of study on how to analyze the biological samples, how to communicate the results of the investigation, and how feasible it would be to reach a conclusion about who was responsible. Participant opinions varied less with regard to requirements, protocols, and guidelines thought to be important to maintaining confidence in the technical details of an investigation and the evidence it produces. Findings from this study can inform planning for future events.

Identifying and assessing power system vulnerabilities to transmission asset outages via cascading failure analysis

Power systems as critical infrastructure are an integral part of human society and are therefore of paramount importance to modern life. Vulnerabilities in the system, that are revealed either by accidental or deliberate events, can cause large losses of power supply with sever social and economic consequences. A tool that identifies the vulnerabilities in a power system can provide the operators the means to support reliable power system operations. This paper presents a methodology for power system vulnerability assessment that couples an AC based cascading failure simulation model and a meta-heuristic optimization procedure. The objectives of the assessment are to (1) rank the most important branches in the transmission grid, and (2) identify sets of branches if simultaneously tripped will cause the cascade with highest intensity. The first objective is achieved by ranking the criticality of the branches using two criteria (i) the impact that each branch failure has on the DNS and (ii) the frequency of line overload. The second objective is achieved by hard linking an AC based cascading failure simulation model and a meta-heuristic based optimization procedure. The methodology allows the generation and the identification of vulnerability scenarios, and therefore, provides insights that can be used by operators in developing strategies to minimize the effects of accidental and deliberate events. The algorithm developed for the purpose of this study is applied to the IEEE 118-bus test system and the Swiss power grid. The results demonstrate the capability of the proposed methodology for assessing power system vulnerability.

Accidental and Deliberate Self-Poisoning with Medications and Medication Errors among Children in Rural Sri Lanka.

Context. Pharmaceutical products are the leading cause accidental poisoning in middle- and high-income countries. Patterns of poisoning with medicinal drugs change across different geographic regions and over decades owing to variability in prescription practice, sociocultural factors, safe storage of medicines, and free availability of over the counter medications. Methods. This multicentre descriptive study was conducted over a seven-year period (February 2007 to January 2014) to assess patterns and trends of medicinal drug-related poisoning among children less than 12 years of age in thirty-six hospitals across rural Sri Lanka. Children with both accidental and deliberate medication poisonings and medication errors were recruited to the study. Data on poisoning events and medication errors were gathered via patient/parent interviews using multistructured questionnaires that assessed demographic factors, first aid measures, location and circumstances of poisoning, clinical management, and complications. In addition, focus group discussions were performed on all children and their families who had deliberate poisoning events and medication errors. Results and Conclusions. Among 1621 children presented with acute poisoning over seven years of age, 410 children had acute poisoning with medications. Male children (225, 54.9%) outnumbered female children. Paracetomol (137, 35.6%), salbutamol (55, 14.3%), and chlorpheniramine (35, 9.1%) were the most commonly poisoned medications. Prospective data at Anuradhapura teaching hospital (n = 112) revealed that unsafe first aid measures were practiced on 22 (19.6%) children. Although the majority of children remained asymptomatic (61, 54.5%), neurological symptoms (34, 67%) were predominantly seen in symptomatic children. The majority of poisonings took place within home premises (76, 67.9%). There were 16 reports of medication errors (14.2% of acute poisoning events) either due to erroneous administration by caregivers or erroneous issue of medicines by health workers. The current study did not observe mortality following medication poisonings. This study brings to light the burden of medicinal drug-related poisoning morbidity among children in rural Sri Lanka. Potentially, interventions such as community educational initiatives, written safety warnings, increased use of child resistant containers, and enforcement of laws to bring down accidental medication poisonings need to be implemented, and their effectiveness should be evaluated.

Development and performance evaluation of large-scale auxetic protective systems for localised impulsive loads

Cellular core structures with a negative Poisson’s ratio, also known as auxetic core structures, are gaining attention due to their unique performance in sandwich panel systems for protecting critical infrastructures and military vehicles that are at high risk of blast and impact loads due to accidental and deliberate events. To help develop a high-performance protective system, this article outlines the performance evaluation of five different auxetic cell configurations based on a quantitative/qualitative review of an experimental load–deformation relationship of three-dimensional-printed auxetic panels from nylon plastics and the overall performance evaluation of metallic re-entrant honeycomb core sandwich panels as one type of lightweight protective system under static and dynamic loads via experimental testing and numerical simulations. The re-entrant honeycomb design displayed the most consistent auxetic behaviour. Quasi-static compression and drop hammer impact tests were performed using the proposed full-scale sandwich panel design with two different configurations as a protective system for concrete wall structures in combination with plastic face plates. The effect of the internal angle of the re-entrant honeycomb design and the effect of the core material under static and dynamic loads were evaluated using full-scale sandwich panels. Furthermore, two separate materials – acrylonitrile butadiene styrene and low-density polyethylene – were used as face plates, and the low-density polyethylene was effective for lightweight and smooth load transferring and distribution into the auxetic core. Auxetic panel deformation under static and dynamic load was examined using a normal speed camera and high-speed video recording data and all auxetic panels indicated excellent systematic crushing behaviour with drawing materials into the load path to effectively resist the impact load. Numerical simulations were performed using LS-DYNA and indicated good agreement with the experimental results. Finally, protective systems utilising sandwich panels with a re-entrant honeycomb core indicated strong potential for the development of high-performance lightweight impact-resistant protective systems.

A probabilistic risk-acceptance model for assessing blast and fragmentation safety hazards

There are many circumstances where decision-makers consider risks associated with explosions – from either natural or deliberate events – where the goal is clarity with respect to the actual safety and hazard risks posed to society and its people, systems and infrastructure. The paper describes how probabilistic safety and hazard modelling of blast and fragmentation can better inform a Quantitative Explosive Risk assessment (QERA). A QERA may be used to define an explosive safety distance based on the risk of explosive hazards being less than a societal acceptable risk. The concepts are illustrated with scenarios at a generic explosives ordnance (EO) site. In one scenario we demonstrate that current, deterministically based, regulations in Australia and internationally may be overly conservative. In other words, a deterministic based regulation may show that a building is located in an unsafe area, whereas a QERA can show, for the same building, that fatality risks are less than those deemed acceptable by society. Another example demonstrates the significant effect that uncertainty modelling, particularly that associated with post-detonation blast-loads, has on fatality risks.

Categorization of Work Zone Intrusion Crashes

Vehicle intrusion crashes in highway work zones injure vehicle occupants and workers alike, and such crashes are the concern of both state agencies and highway contractors. This paper describes the results of an effort to develop prototypical scenarios of common work zone intrusion crashes documented in the New York State Department of Transportation work zone accident database. A prototypical scenario can be defined as one that is representative of the crash process because of the typicality of its chain of events and the likely causal relationships throughout the stages of the crash. By considering the chain of events that led to a particular crash, it is possible to group similar crashes and provide a more in-depth assessment, even though some of the facts involved in the individual crashes vary. In the study described here, prototypical scenarios were developed for four intrusion crashes at four types of work zone operations: lane closures, flagging operations, mobile operations, and traffic control setup and removal activities. It was concluded that a significant portion of intrusion crashes resulted from deliberate driver decisions and actions to enter the work space. The frequency of such deliberate events, which ranged from 25% to 64%, depended on the type of work operation in place on a given roadway. The study identified between three and eight prototypical crash sequences that were not the result of deliberate actions by drivers and that led to intrusion crashes.

Distinguishing Suicidal from Non-Suicidal Deliberate Self-Harm Events in Women with Borderline Personality Disorder

Deliberate self-harm (DSH) is common in Borderline Personality Disorder, may be due to a variety of reasons, and is associated with different degrees of suicidal intent. Understanding the reasons for episodes of DSH in this population may be helpful in developing interventions to reduce the rate of DSH or to assist in the clinical judgement of suicidal intention after DSH has occurred. The Parasuicide History Interview, version 2 (PHI-2) was used to determine the reasons for DSH events in 70 Australian women diagnosed with Borderline Personality Disorder. Factor analysis of the responses identified four empirically derived component factors. Multivariate models were developed to identify the independent predictors of suicidal deliberate self-harm (S-DSH) versus non-suicidal deliberate self-harm (NS-DSH) events. Participants and raters showed strong agreement in classifying S-DSH and NS-DSH events. Methods used that involved self-poisoning, jumping or stabbing showed increased risk for S-DSH, adjusted odds ratio 12.07 (95% CI 2.17, 67.29), compared to the referent group, external damage to skin with no rescue contact being sought. Although no grouping of reasons were independently significant, the lower the effectiveness of the DSH event to resolve the reasons for the event, the higher the risk of it having been a S-DSH event. In clinical situations, any Borderline Personality Disorder patient seeking help or medical attention, using any method other than superficial external injury to skin, or reporting a failure to effectively resolve the reasons for the DSH event, should be considered as likely to have had a S-DSH event (greater suicidal intention). However, specific reasons for the DSH event, or individual subject characteristics, did not meaningfully distinguish S-DSH from NS-DSH events.

Conflict in the Indian Kashmir Valley I: exposure to violence

BackgroundIndia and Pakistan have disputed ownership of the Kashmir Valley region for many years, resulting in several conflicts since the end of partition in 1947. Very little is known about the prevalence of violence and insecurity in this population.MethodsWe undertook a two-stage cluster household survey in two districts (30 villages) of the Indian part of Kashmir to assess experiences with violence and mental health status among the conflict-affected Kashmiri population. The article presents our findings for confrontations with violence. Data were collected for recent events (last 3 months) and those occurring since the start of the conflict. Informed consent was obtained for all interviews.Results510 interviews were completed. Respondents reported frequent direct confrontations with violence since the start of conflict, including exposure to crossfire (85.7%), round up raids (82.7%), the witnessing of torture (66.9%), rape (13.3%), and self-experience of forced labour (33.7%), arrests/kidnapping (16.9%), torture (12.9%), and sexual violence (11.6%). Males reported more confrontations with violence than females, and had an increased likelihood of having directly experienced physical/mental maltreatment (OR 3.9, CI: 2.7–5.7), violation of their modesty (OR 3.6, CI: 1.9–6.8) and injury (OR 3.5, CI: 1.4–8.7). Males also had high odds of self-being arrested/kidnapped (OR 8.0, CI: 4.1–15.5).ConclusionThe civilian population in Kashmir is exposed to high levels of violence, as demonstrated by the high frequency of deliberate events as detention, hostage, and torture. The reported violence may result in substantial health, including mental health problems. Males reported significantly more confrontations with almost all violent events; this can be explained by higher participation in outdoor activities.

The Integration of Network-Based Models for Spill Response and Homeland Security

The integration of three hydraulic GIS (Geographic Information System) applications is presented which represent the water infrastructures of cities and urban areas and US streams and rivers. The water infrastructures include drinking water distribution systems, wastewater collection systems and source water. The National Research Council[1] states that problems dealing with the collective behavior of networks such as river systems, water distribution systems and waste water collection systems are complex because they include feedback loops, produce counter-intuitive behaviors and exhibit behaviors that cannot be predicted from the attributes of individual components. A complex system includes all of the above individual components, yet also exhibits emergent collective behavior caused by the interactions among its features. The integration of these applications have been developed for use in planning, response, training and development of monitoring strategies to address potential deliberate or accidental toxic contamination events.