Degree Of Anticipation Research Articles

Catastrophes provoquées par la nature et implication des forces armées : Exploration d'un cadre de collaboration civilo-militaire

Nature-triggered disasters have been causing havoc in Canada over the past decade. Although many of these hazards cannot be prevented (e.g., earthquakes), their impacts can be managed through judicious planning and by mobilizing national resources. Considering the relentless force of nature and the degree of anticipation and preparedness needed, Canadian civil and military institutions must synergize to optimally utilize human capital, knowledge, and financial resources. Both the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) and civil society actors have emphasized the importance of enhancing adaptive capacity and reliance on the armed forces for disaster response. As such, frequent involvement in domestic responses diverts the CAF’s focus away from national and international security threats, underscoring a serious national concern. Against this backdrop, the present paper analyzes existing civil-military cooperative models in Disaster Management in Canada and the USA. Three objectives are set: a) to explore the armed forces’ main tenets and approaches to disaster and emergency management, b) to find similarities and differences in institutional and resource priorities (before and during the onset of extreme nature-triggered events), and c) to identify the best collaborative practices and modes of operation of stakeholders involved. Using a case study approach, a desktop review of policy papers and an event database for two large-scale disasters: one in the United States (Hurricane Katrina in 2005) and one in Canada (the 1997 Red River flood in Manitoba) was carried out. The results offered the following major findings: a) organizational and cultural differences between the civil and military authorities in both countries drive the nature of disaster management; b) centralization vs. resource decentralization has remained the key factor in speeding up disaster response; c) political and legal scope and limitations in civil-military cooperation are often blurred; and d) the sole application of the Command, Control, and Communication (C3) approach becomes problematic when a multi-stakeholder approach is preferred for disaster management.

Wealth transfers and labour supply: impact of inheritances and gifts by gender in Europe

PurposeThe authors analyse how the receipt of a wealth transfer (inheritance or gift) affects labour force participation in 14 EU countries. They compare the effect of receiving an inheritance or a gift and investigate different behaviours at the gender level and educational level and for elderly individuals.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey for 14 European countries and adopt an instrumental variable approach. They use information on the type of donor (family and nonfamily) to infer the degree of anticipation of a wealth transfer.FindingsThe authors find that unexpected wealth transfers have a negative impact on labour force participation, with a stronger impact for gifts than for inheritances. For gender, they find larger negative impacts for females than for males, which is in line with a weaker attachment to the labour market. Receiving an unexpected wealth transfer may also result in early retirement.Originality/valueThe paper offers a novel comparison of the effect of receiving an inheritance or a gift on labour force participation using a unique European dataset. The authors investigate whether males and females react differently to the receipt of a wealth transfer and the existence of different responses at the educational level and for elderly individuals.

A longitudinal analysis of the effects of disability on sleep satisfaction and sleep duration in Germany

We study how the onset of disability affects both sleep satisfaction and sleep time on workdays and weekends. Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel for the period 2008–2017, we run fixed-effects models on sleep satisfaction and duration test whether individuals sleep adapts to disability (i.e. their degree of anticipation and adaptation to its onset). We find that people with disabilities report lower sleep satisfaction scores, and shorter sleep time both on workdays (except for males) and weekends compared to people without disabilities. Although we dont find evidence of anticipation effects, we find that sleep outcomes ambiguously worsen with disability. The adaptation to disability in terms of sleep satisfaction is longer for females than males (5 versus 4 years, respectively). These findings suggest that poor sleep among people with disabilities may explain their worst health outcomes, recovery, rehabilitation, and overall quality of life.

Medial Orbitofrontal Cortex, Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex, and Hippocampus Differentially Represent the Event Saliency.

Two primary functions attributed to the hippocampus and prefrontal cortex (PFC) network are retaining the temporal and spatial associations of events and detecting deviant events. It is unclear, however, how these two functions converge into one mechanism. Here, we tested whether increased activity with perceiving salient events is a deviant detection signal or contains information about the event associations by reflecting the magnitude of deviance (i.e., event saliency). We also tested how the deviant detection signal is affected by the degree of anticipation. We studied regional neural activity when people watched a movie that had varying saliency of a novel or an anticipated flow of salient events. Using intracranial electroencephalography from 10 patients, we observed that high-frequency activity (50-150 Hz) in the hippocampus, dorsolateral PFC, and medial OFC tracked event saliency. We also observed that medial OFC activity was stronger when the salient events were anticipated than when they were novel. These results suggest that dorsolateral PFC and medial OFC, as well as the hippocampus, signify the saliency magnitude of events, reflecting the hierarchical structure of event associations.

Parental age effects, but no evidence for an intrauterine effect in the transmission of myotonic dystrophy type 1.

Myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1) is caused by the expansion of an unstable CTG repeat (g.17294_17296(45_1000)) with more repeats associated with increased disease severity and reduced age at onset. Expanded disease-associated alleles are highly unstable in both the germline and soma. Germline instability is expansion biased, providing a molecular explanation for anticipation. Somatic instability is expansion biased, size- and age-dependent, features that have compromised genotype-phenotype correlations and intergenerational studies. We corrected these confounding factors by estimating the progenitor allele length in 54 father-offspring and 52 mother-offspring pairs in Costa Rican DM1 families. Not surprisingly, we found major parental allele length effects on the size of the allele transmitted, the magnitude of the intergenerational length change, the age at onset in the next generation and the degree of anticipation in both male and female transmissions. We also detected, for the first time, an age-of-parent effect for both male and female transmission. Interestingly, we found no evidence for an intrauterine effect in the transmission of congenital DM1, suggesting previous reports may have been an artefact of age-dependent somatic instability and sampling bias. These data provide new insights into the germline dynamics of the CTG repeat and opportunities for providing additional advice and more accurate risk assessments to prospective parents in DM1 families.

Anticipation Increases Tactile Stimulus Processing in the Ipsilateral Primary Somatosensory Cortex

Stimulus anticipation improves perception. To account for this improvement, we investigated how stimulus processing is altered by anticipation. In contrast to a large body of previous work, we employed a demanding perceptual task and investigated sensory responses that occur beyond early evoked activity in contralateral primary sensory areas: Stimulus-induced modulations of neural oscillations. For this, we recorded magnetoencephalography in 19 humans while they performed a cued tactile identification task involving the identification of either a proximal or a distal stimulation on the fingertips. We varied the cue-target interval between 0 and 1000 ms such that tactile targets occurred at various degrees of anticipation. This allowed us to investigate the influence of anticipation on stimulus processing in a parametric fashion. We observed that anticipation increases the stimulus-induced response (suppression of beta-band oscillations) originating from the ipsilateral primary somatosensory cortex. This occurs in the period in which the tactile memory trace is analyzed and is correlated with the anticipation-induced improvement in tactile perception. We propose that this ipsilateral response indicates distributed processing across bilateral primary sensory cortices, of which the extent increases with anticipation. This constitutes a new and potentially important mechanism contributing to perception and its improvement following anticipation.

M&A Announcements in Australia and Their Impact on Competitors

We investigate the impact of M&A announcements by Australian companies on the market value of their rivals. We find that only the immediate competitor is affected, recording significant negative abnormal returns. This adjustment takes three to four weeks around the announcement day with some degree of anticipation. In contrast, M&A announcements benefit the acquirers instantaneously increasing their market value. We show that larger rivals are less concerned by announcements made by smaller or glamour acquirers as their capacity to compete with the newly merged entity is not diminished and benefits from collusion are perceived as non-significant.

Recursive Fuzzy Predictions of Future Patient Paths to Support Clinical Decision Making in ICU

In this paper, we propose a new architecture that combines prediction and decision-making in the form of a hybrid framework aimed at providing clinicians with transparent and accurate maps, or charts, to guide and to support treatment decisions, and to interrogate the clinical patients’ course as it develops. These maps should be patient-specific, with options displayed of possible treatment pathways. They would suggest the optimal care pathways, and the shortest routes to the most efficient care, by predicting clinical progress, testing the ensuing suggestions against the developing clinical state and patient condition, and suggesting new options as necessary. These maps should also mine an extensive database of accumulated patient data, modelled diseases, and modelled patient-responses based on expert-derived rules. These individualized hierarchical targets, which are implemented in order to prevent life-threatening illnesses, will also have to “adapt” to the patient’s altering clinical condition. Therapies that support one system can destabilize others and selecting which specific support to prioritize is an uncertain process, the prioritization of which can vary between clinical experts. Whilst clinical therapeutic decisions can be made with some degree of anticipation of the “likely” outcome (based on the experts’ opinion and judgment), treatment is essentially rooted in the present, and is dependent on analyzing the current clinical condition and available data. The recursive learning approach presented in this paper, allows decision rules to predict the possible future course, and reflects back derived information from such projections to the present time and thus support proactive clinical care rather than reactive clinical care. The proposed framework for such a patient map supports and enables an optimized choice from available options and also ensures that decisions are based on both the available evidence and a database of best clinical practice. Preliminary results are encouraging and it is hoped to validate the approach clinically in the near future.

Sovereign Credit Rating Announcements and Baltic Stock Markets

This study examines whether sovereign credit rating announcements convey price relevant information to investors in Baltic stock markets, and tests the degree of anticipation and price reaction. Event study methodology is employed to test for the price impact of sovereign credit rating announcements by Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch. This enables to analyse whether there is an anticipation of the forthcoming announcement in a particular market, a price impact on the announcement day, and a possible delayed reaction. Results indicate that there is an asymmetric reaction: the price impact of negative events is several times larger than that of positive events. Moreover, although some types of rating announcements are anticipated, there is still a significant price impact on the announcement day. The impact differs across the three Baltic stock markets, and depends on the credit rating agency issuing the announcement. The main conclusion is that sovereign credit rating announcements contain pricing relevant news in addition to information already in a public domain.

Aspects of tool production, use, and hafting in Palaeolithic assemblages from Northeast Africa

A detailed microwear study was performed on several assemblages from Northeast Africa to provide an anthropological scenario of late middle and upper Pleistocene populations in the Nile Valley and adjacent zones. Results are presented from the wear analysis of five sites, and an interpretation is provided of the keystones of MSA behaviour and its evolution throughout about 150,000 years. Locally available raw materials were predominantly used. Different tool uses were identified based on wear evidence, and it was demonstrated that stone tools were hafted from at least the early MSA onwards. In particular stone tools for which hafting was a necessity for their use, such as percussion implements and projectiles, were hafted. Both tool functions remain important throughout the Middle Stone Age. For tools with other uses, such as knives, hafting was demonstrated in certain cases. Hafting proved to be integrated into the stone tool production process, indicating a certain degree of anticipation and planning. Ochre was present at most of the sites in different forms, and mainly seems to have served a utilitarian function, and a possible symbolic use. The included sites could be interpreted as specialised sites, and in all but one case were situated in a production context. The evidence indicates the existence of a regional settlement system with different logistic nodes.

Innovation and price: the case of digital cameras

This study examines a hedonic regression model of digital camera prices using data collected from an internet price comparison service. We find that a small number of product characteristics explains most of the variation in camera prices. In addition, the model demonstrates substantial downward pressure on camera prices during the time period considered. We also examine technological innovation shocks to determine their impact on product prices. We find that the corresponding price reaction exhibits gradual adjustment over time, providing evidence of some degree of anticipation of the innovation, as well as a post-innovation price shock. This study also demonstrates the power of web-based shopping services as a new and novel source of data for econometric analysis.

Presenting Successful Wildlife Education Programs– Engaging Your Audience

A wildlife educator walks into a room and sees the audience waiting eagerly. Walking into that classroom or auditorium, you, the educator, find a ‘captive’ audience filled with interest in who you are and what you do. The term ‘wildlife rehabilitator’ connotes an association with mammals, birds, or reptiles, and to many audiences that is intriguing. The fact that you may be accompanied by either live educational mammals or birds, mounted specimens, or an assortment of exciting wildlife artifacts creates an additional degree of anticipation and arouses curiosity in all age groups. Your skills and experiences can create the perfect atmosphere for conveying important facts and concepts regarding wildlife rehabilitation, in addition to your personalized message to benefit wildlife. You should feel comfortable and confident if you have done your advance planning and preparation.

The Information Content of Administration and Administrative Receivership Filings in the UK

This study investigates the stock price performance of all listed firms that filed for Administration and Administrative Receivership in the UK between 1996 and 2003. Using event study methodology, we find a significant negative market reaction to Administrative Receivership filings but not to Administration filings. The evidence points to some degree of anticipation by the market participants given the large incidence of pre-filing warnings (e.g., profit and liquidity warnings) in our sample. The results are consistent with a less lenient treatment of shareholders in Administrative Receivership compared to Administration.

Information Content of Dividend Changes in an Emerging Market

Supports on the free cash flow and agency cost theory from dividend announcements studies have been heavily discussed in the Western literature, but they have not been given much attention in the Asian countries, particularly in Malaysia. This paper focuses on examining the relationship of the stock market reactions due to dividend announcements and ten company-specific variables identified from the literature as potential determinants. The results from cross-sectional and stepwise regressions both showed that none of the determining variables could explain the variation in cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) for the increasing dividend announcements. For decreasing dividend announcements, both regressions identified the degree of anticipation to be significant and inversely related to CARs. In addition, the indigenous population ownership, which is a unique characteristic of the Malaysian equity market is also found to be significant in influencing the effect of decreasing dividend announcements. The findings provide no support for the free cash flow and agency cost theory.

Anticipation in Crohn's disease may be influenced by gender and ethnicity of the transmitting parent.

We sought to examine whether anticipation (an earlier age of onset in succeeding generations) is observed in Crohn's disease (CD) patients within the New York metropolitan area, and whether there are differences in the degree of anticipation with respect to gender and ethnicity of the affected parent. Sixty-one parent-child pairs both affected by CD were identified; about half of the pairs were of Ashkenazi Jewish descent. An additional 17 pairs of second-degree relatives with CD were also identified. The intergenerational difference in age at diagnosis (AAD) was used to perform regression analysis and the degree of anticipation among subsets of patients separated on the basis of gender and ethnicity of the transmitting parent was determined. The AAD was consistently (90% of the time) lower in the younger member of the 61 parent-child pairs (35.3+/-1.6 yr vs 20.8+/-1.1 yr, p = 0.0001). Furthermore, the degree of anticipation was significantly greater for father-child pairs (20.6+/-3.2 yr) than for mother-child pairs (11.7+/-2.1 yr). However, when the patient population where the parent had an AAD of < 28 was analyzed separately, there was a lack of clear-cut evidence of anticipation in the population as a whole. Only when the population was subdivided by ethnicity was there convincing evidence of anticipation in the Jewish population. Ascertainment bias may be responsible for the apparent anticipation observed in the CD population as a whole or in the nonJewish CD subgroup. However, the Jewish CD population displays strong evidence of anticipation even after correction for ascertainment bias.

Anticipation in Crohn’s disease may be influenced by gender and ethnicity of the transmitting parent

Objective: We sought to examine whether anticipation (an earlier age of onset in succeeding generations) is observed in Crohn’s disease (CD) patients within the New York metropolitan area, and whether there are differences in the degree of anticipation with respect to gender and ethnicity of the affected parent. Methods: Sixty-one parent-child pairs both affected by CD were identified; about half of the pairs were of Ashkenazi Jewish descent. An additional 17 pairs of second-degree relatives with CD were also identified. The intergenerational difference in age at diagnosis (AAD) was used to perform regression analysis and the degree of anticipation among subsets of patients separated on the basis of gender and ethnicity of the transmitting parent was determined. Results: The AAD was consistently (90% of the time) lower in the younger member of the 61 parent-child pairs (35.3 ± 1.6 yr vs 20.8 ± 1.1 yr, p = 0.0001). Furthermore, the degree of anticipation was significantly greater for father-child pairs (20.6 ± 3.2 yr) than for mother-child pairs (11.7 ± 2.1 yr). However, when the patient population where the parent had an AAD of < 28 was analyzed separately, there was a lack of clear-cut evidence of anticipation in the population as a whole. Only when the population was subdivided by ethnicity was there convincing evidence of anticipation in the Jewish population. Conclusion: Ascertainment bias may be responsible for the apparent anticipation observed in the CD population as a whole or in the nonJewish CD subgroup. However, the Jewish CD population displays strong evidence of anticipation even after correction for ascertainment bias.

First sexual intercourse: anticipation and communication. Interviews with young people in England

This study investigated anticipation and communication around first sexual intercourse through semi-structured interviews with young people (aged 16 to 29) in England. Ranging from surprise to pre-planning, several different levels of anticipation are explored. The main findings are as follows: communication plays a central role, mediating between the degree of anticipation and the degree to which first intercourse is wanted, protected and enjoyed. First intercourse tends to be characterized by silence, especially during early, spontaneous encounters. Silence does not imply lack of communication—non-verbal communication plays an important role. Where young people are ambivalent, verbal and non-verbal communication may send contradictory messages. The implications of the results for future safer sex campaigns are discussed.

Maternal anticipation in Machado-Joseph disease (MJD): some maternal factors independent of the number of CAG repeat units may play a role in genetic anticipation in a Japanese MJD family

We studied the relationship between the number of CAG repeat units in the MJD1 gene and clinical features of Machado-Joseph disease (MJD) in eight patients from two generations of a Japanese MJD family. Because of lack of characteristic clinical signs of MJD such as dystonia, bulging eyes or facial myokymia, clinical diagnosis of MJD in this family was difficult to make prior to molecular testing for the CAG repeat expansion in the MJD1 gene. All the patients exhibited maternal transmission of MJD, and the intergenerational change in the number of CAG repeat units in the MJD1 gene was very small (+0.5±0.3, mean±S.E.M., n=4) in spite of marked genetic anticipation (−17.0 years/generation). In the present family, the degree of anticipation per repeat unit in maternal transmissions was much larger than that in maternal transmissions in the other six MJD families. This indicates that some maternal factors other than the increase of the number of CAG repeat units, which is known to be the basis of anticipation, may play a role in genetic anticipation in this MJD family.

Leadership in accreditation and networked learning

Distance education and traditional campus‐based education are experiencing an historic convergence that has produced a high degree of anticipation and anxiety among those who deal with institutional evaluation and accreditation. Convergence of these two approaches as networked education is well‐advanced; today's instruction, once mediated at the boundaries of the campus both by the state regulatory authority and the regional or professional accreditation body, easily crosses physical boundaries and established jurisdictions. Accreditation threatens to become a pastiche of intertwining jurisdictions, since neither government nor accreditors have fully anticipated the implications of networked education. How will public policy ensure that appropriate educational and academic controls persist, and how and by whom will the decisions that guarantee the quality, continuity, and credibility of student work be made? Students themselves may already be providing new directions for leadership.

Exchange market intervention under multiple solutions: Should we rule out multiple solutions?

This paper analyzes exchange market intervention in a small open economy. In the analysis, the solutions are refined by two alternative criteria. Under the minimal state solution, a simple feedback rule can perfectly stabilize income fluctuation if and only if exogenous shocks are unanticipated and serially correlated. However, under a collective rational solution, the simple rule can always perfectly stabilize income fluctuation regardless of the forms of exogenous shocks and their degrees of anticipation. The latter result is surprising because this simple rule may be more effective than the rules derived in the previous literature.