Degree Of Scientific Uncertainty Research Articles

Anticipating the Future of the World's Ocean

Oceans play critical roles in the lives, economies, cultures, and nutrition of people globally, yet face increasing pressures from human activities that put those benefits at risk. To anticipate the future of the world's ocean, we review the many human activities that impose pressures on marine species and ecosystems, evaluating their impacts on marine life, the degree of scientific uncertainty in those assessments, and the expected trajectory over the next few decades. We highlight that fundamental research should prioritize areas of high potential impact and greater uncertainty about ecosystem vulnerability, such as emerging fisheries, organic chemical pollution, seabed mining, and the interactions of cumulative pressures, and deprioritize research on areas that demonstrate little impact or are well understood, such as plastic pollution and ship strikes to marine fauna. There remains hope for a productive and sustainable future ocean, but the window of opportunity for action is closing.

Lessons from CCAMLR on the implementation of the ecosystem approach to managing fisheries

AbstractThe Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) is widely recognized as a leading international organization in developing best practice in the ecosystem approach to managing fisheries. CCAMLR provides a useful case study for examining the impediments to implementing ecosystem‐based fisheries management (EBFM) because it has EBFM principles embedded within its convention rather than having to make a transition from single‐species management to an ecosystem approach. CCAMLR is demonstrating that (i) EBFM does not need to equate to complexity in management and (ii) methods can be developed to decide on spatial management strategies for fisheries so that predators of target species are not disproportionately affected as a result of spatial and/or temporal dependencies of predators on their prey. Science has an important role in implementing EBFM, not only in measuring and assessing the status of target species and their predators but also in designing cost‐effective management strategies and in resolving disputes. Importantly, attention needs to be given to developing the capability and tools to overcome differences amongst scientists in providing advice to managers. The CCAMLR experience suggests that, without adequate safeguards, voluntary participation by fishing States in CCAMLR and its consensus environment do not provide strong foundations for achieving, in the long term, the ecosystem‐based principles for managing fisheries when there is any degree of scientific uncertainty. Some solutions to these issues are discussed. Overall, broader‐than‐CCAMLR solutions amongst the international community as well as the continued commitment of CCAMLR Members will be required to resolve these issues.

Health Risk Assessment of Electromagnetic Fields: A Conflict between the Precautionary Principle and Environmental Medicine Methodology

The purpose of the precautionary principle is that legal requirements are to be made to safeguard against the possible health risks that have not yet been scientifically established. That a risk is not established cannot, therefore, be used as an excuse for not applying the principle. Yet, that rationale is exactly what is happening in the case of the possible health risks from exposure to electromagnetic fields (EMF). The scientists, representing both the World Health Organization and the European Commission, do not have at all the precautionary principle in mind when they report on health risks. Their starting point is instead to determine whether new research findings have been scientifically established and thus cannot be the basis for an amendment to the existing exposure limits. Uncertain indications of risk are ignored or played down. This approach is in conflict with European Union (EU) law, which requires that the degree of scientific uncertainty should be presented correctly. A thorough examination of the state of research shows many serious indications of possible health risks from exposure very far below existing limits for EMF. Case law, for other types of exposure, also shows that the precautionary principle can be applied on the basis of weaker evidence than that. Our investigation shows that the precautionary principle is not being used for its intended purpose in relation to exposure to EMF. The reason for this position is that decision-makers are being misled by inaccurate risk assessments.

Post-Normal Science in the Multilateral Trading System: Social Science Expertise and the EC - Biotech Panel

The recent EC - Biotech case highlights the emerging regulatory divide between WTO Members and reveals a deepening crisis over issues of science and governance in the world trading system. This article focuses on the potential role that social science expertise might play as an analytical tool in understanding trade disputes involving scientific expertise relating to matters of risk assessment and polycentric decision-making. Particular consideration is given to the paradigm of 'post-normal' science, which pertains in situations where competent national authorities have to frame and implement policies before all the (scientific) facts are known. As the amicus curiae brief by a group of five social scientists before the Panel in EC - Biotech demonstrates, where there is a high degree of scientific uncertainty, as in the case of GM products, post-normal science can offer a valuable means of framing the dispute in a broader societal context than the sound science approach, which is used when assessing health, safety and environmental risks under the SPS Agreement.

Health effects. The precautionary approach-a rose by another name

EC communication provides one of the most comprehensive descriptions of the precautionary principle and its application. Moreover, it appears that the health impact associated with RF and microwave radiation from cellular mobile telephones is a potential area to apply the precautionary principle, either on an individual or societal basis. Some salient features of the EC communication are given below. The implementation of an approach based on the precautionary principle should start with a scientific evaluation, as complete as possible, and where possible, identifying at each stage the degree of scientific uncertainty.

The Birth of a Federal Research Agency

occurred in the past several tens of millions of years. Furthermore, it appears that we ourselves are the primary causal agents for this change. Yet we are in profound ignorance of the details of what is happening and what impact the changes might have on the quality of life for us and for future generations. Given this degree of scientific uncertainty, it is little wonder that we are unable to fully agree among ourselves about what to do, if anything. We all clearly have a stake in the outcome of the debate about how we approach questions of biological diversity. We all share some of the responsibility. However, the US Department of the Interior (DOI), as custodian of 22% of all US lands, has a special responsibility. Therefore, it is perhaps not surprising that the Secretary of the Interior, Bruce Babbitt, on assuming office, asked the question: How can science be better organized in the Department of the Interior? The result was the birth of the National Biological Survey (NBS) in November 1993.1