Drift Degradation Research Articles

Modeling Product Degradation with Heterogeneity: A General Random-Effects Wiener Process Approach

Degradation of many products in practical applications is often subject to unit-to-unit heterogeneity. Such heterogeneity can be attributed to heterogeneous quality of the raw materials and the fluctuation of the manufacturing process, as well as the heterogeneous usage conditions and environments. The heterogeneity leads to the scattering of the degradation rates and diffusion intensities in the population. To model this phenomenon, this study proposes a general random-effects Wiener process model that accounts for the unit-to-unit heterogeneity in the degradation drift and the volatility simultaneously. In particular, the drift of the Wiener process is characterized by a normal distribution and the diffusion parameter is characterized by an independent inverse Gaussian distribution. The proposed model is flexible for characterization of heterogeneous degradation, and permits an analytically tractable model inference. An EM algorithm incorporating the variational Bayesian method is developed to estimate the model parameters, and a parametric bootstrap approach is proposed to construct confidence intervals. The performance of the proposed model and the estimation algorithm is validated by Monte Carlo simulations. The degradation data of an infrared LED device and the wearing data of the magnetic head of a hard disk driver are studied based on the proposed model. With comprehensive comparative studies, the good performance of the proposed model in fitting the real degradation data is validated.

Modeling left-truncated degradation data using random drift-diffusion Wiener processes

ABSTRACT For products whose performance characteristic (PC) gradually degrades with time, one usually observes its degradation levels repeatedly to predict its remaining useful life (RUL). Due to the limited storage space of the server and the low resolution of a measurement instrument, we seldom record the low-magnitude degradation values at the early degradation stage in applications. Such observation setting introduces left-truncated degradation data, in which the data collection starts later than the unit’s installation. This brings sampling biases and complicates the degradation data analysis. Moreover, due to the uncontrollable factors in applications, the degradation drift and the degradation diffusion may differ among various units. Motivated by an application of high-speed train bearings, we propose a Wiener process model for the left-truncated degradation data and jointly consider the drift-diffusion random effects. Closed-form formulas are available in the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for estimating the model parameters. We derive the RUL distribution in closed form. We also extend the proposed model to the multivariate degradation process. The parameters are estimated with the help of the Monte Carlo EM (MCEM) algorithm. An additional laser application illustrates the performance of the proposed model in RUL prediction, which may help to design a predictive maintenance strategy

A Finite Element Analysis Approach to Explain Sensitivity Degradation in Force Sensing Resistors Based on Conductive Polymer Composites

Force sensing resistors (FSR) based in conductive polymer composites (CPC) are a cost-effective alternative to load cells for force measurement. Nevertheless, their physical characteristics related to rheological features provoke some drawbacks such as hysteresis, drift, low repeatability, and sensitivity degradation (SD), which is a concerning issue when final application involves periodic loading. Although it is already known that SD is a voltage-related phenomenon and practical considerations to avoid it have been published, a more theoretical approach was yet missing. This study provides a set of finite element analysis (FEA) simplified models to shed light on the situations that favor degradation based in a time-dependent mechanical study considering rheological parameters and how they influence interparticle tunneling conduction. Also, a stationary electrostatic analysis with special scope in contact resistance and its influence in equipotential surfaces arousal. Simulation results show how the effect of contact resistance bends equipotential surfaces favoring conduction through time-increasing interparticle gaps, which is a direct consequence of the low Poisson ratio of considered polymers.

Historical Environment Is Reflected in Modern Population Genetics and Biogeography of an Island Endemic Lizard (Xantusia riversiana reticulata).

The restricted distribution and isolation of island endemics often produces unique genetic and phenotypic diversity of conservation interest to management agencies. However, these isolated species, especially those with sensitive life history traits, are at high risk for the adverse effects of genetic drift and habitat degradation by non-native wildlife. Here, we study the population genetic diversity, structure, and stability of a classic “island giant” (Xantusia riversiana, the Island Night Lizard) on San Clemente Island, California following the removal of feral goats. Using DNA microsatellites, we found that this population is reasonably genetically robust despite historical grazing, with similar effective population sizes and genetic diversity metrics across all sampling locations irrespective of habitat type and degree of degradation. However, we also found strong site-specific patterns of genetic variation and low genetic diversity compared to mainland congeners, warranting continued special management as an island endemic. We identify both high and low elevation areas that remain valuable repositories of genetic diversity and provide a case study for other low-dispersal coastal organisms in the face of future climate change.

Online estimation of internal stack temperatures in solid oxide fuel cell power generating units

Abstract Thermal stress is one of the main factors affecting the degradation rate of solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) stacks. In order to mitigate the possibility of fatal thermal stress, stack temperatures and the corresponding thermal gradients need to be continuously controlled during operation. Due to the fact that in future commercial applications the use of temperature sensors embedded within the stack is impractical, the use of estimators appears to be a viable option. In this paper we present an efficient and consistent approach to data-driven design of the estimator for maximum and minimum stack temperatures intended (i) to be of high precision, (ii) to be simple to implement on conventional platforms like programmable logic controllers, and (iii) to maintain reliability in spite of degradation processes. By careful application of subspace identification, supported by physical arguments, we derive a simple estimator structure capable of producing estimates with 3% error irrespective of the evolving stack degradation. The degradation drift is handled without any explicit modelling. The approach is experimentally validated on a 10 kW SOFC system.

Mechanical degradation of emplacement drifts at Yucca Mountain—A modeling case study: Part II: Lithophysal rock

This paper outlines rock mechanics investigations associated with mechanical degradation of planned emplacement drifts at Yucca Mountain, which is the designated site for the proposed US high-level nuclear waste repository. The welded tuff emplacement horizon consists of two groups of rock with distinct engineering properties: nonlithophysal and lithophysal units, based on the relative proportion of lithophysal cavities. The term ‘lithophysal’ refers to hollow, bubble like cavities in volcanic rock that are surrounded by a porous rim formed by fine-grained alkali feldspar, quartz, and other minerals. Lithophysae are typically a few centimeters to a few decimeters in diameter. Part I of the paper concentrated on the degradation behavior of the generally hard, strong, and fractured nonlithophysal rock. Part II concentrates on the host rock in the lithophysal units. Lithophysal rock is characterized by lithophysal cavities interconnected by fracturing. Fracture sets are not as clearly defined as in the nonlithophysal rock. The rock mass porosity in the lithophysal units has been shown to be the primary physical factor that governs elastic and strength properties. The degradation behavior of the tunnels in the lithophysal rock is controlled by the spalling of the surrounding rock mass. A discontinuum material model has been developed to represent the drift scale rock mass properties in which slip and separation of contacting rock blocks can be estimated. Two-dimensional discontinuum analyses were developed with the consideration of in situ, thermal, and seismic loads. Time-dependent degradation was also considered. In this study, field and laboratory data and numerical analyses are well integrated to provide a solution for the unique problem of modeling drift degradation.

Mechanical degradation of emplacement drifts at Yucca Mountain—A modeling case study—Part I: Nonlithophysal rock

This paper outlines rock mechanics investigations associated with mechanical degradation of planned emplacement drifts at Yucca Mountain, which is the designated site for the proposed US high-level nuclear waste repository. The factors leading to drift degradation include stresses from the overburden, stresses induced by the heat released from the emplaced waste, stresses due to seismically related ground motions, and time-dependent strength degradation. The welded tuff emplacement horizon consists of two groups of rock with distinct engineering properties: nonlithophysal units and lithophysal units, based on the relative proportion of lithophysal cavities. The term ‘lithophysal’ refers to hollow, bubble like cavities in volcanic rock that are surrounded by a porous rim formed by fine-grained alkali feldspar, quartz, and other minerals. Lithophysae are typically a few centimeters to a few decimeters in diameter. Part I of the paper concentrates on the generally hard, strong, and fractured nonlithophysal rock. The degradation behavior of the tunnels in the nonlithophysal rock is controlled by the occurrence of keyblocks. A statistically equivalent fracture model was generated based on extensive underground fracture mapping data from the Exploratory Studies Facility at Yucca Mountain. Three-dimensional distinct block analyses, generated with the fracture patterns randomly selected from the fracture model, were developed with the consideration of in situ, thermal, and seismic loads. In this study, field data, laboratory data, and numerical analyses are well integrated to provide a solution for the unique problem of modeling drift degradation.

Time-dependent drift degradation due to the progressive failure of rock bridges along discontinuities

An important element of time-dependent drift degradation is the progressive failure of intact segments along discontinuities, referred to as rock bridges. A fracture mechanics model is developed to simulate the time-dependent failure of rock bridges along discontinuities. The time dependence of the rock bridge failure process is modeled utilizing subcritical crack growth. The rock bridges give an effective cohesion to the discontinuities, and this cohesion is time-dependent due to the time-dependent failure of the rock bridges. The resulting first-order differential equation for joint cohesion is implemented into the UDEC distinct element numerical code to model time-dependent drift degradation. The model and its implementation into UDEC are validated using several simple examples, including a direct shear test and a rigid block on a slope. Two time-dependent drift degradation examples are then shown, one with and one without thermal loading. These examples used similar geometry, material parameters and in situ stresses as for the proposed underground drifts for the storage of nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain. Both with and without thermal loading, a large zone develops around the excavation where the joint cohesion and tensile strength drop to zero due to the failure of rock bridges. This in turn results in an excavation that is significantly less stable than if time dependence was not included. The results demonstrate the importance of time-dependence on the stability of underground excavations in hard rock.

Seepage into drifts with mechanical degradation

Seepage into drifts in unsaturated tuff is an important issue for the long-term performance of the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Drifts in which waste packages will be emplaced are subject to degradation in the form of rockfall from the drift ceiling, induced by stress-relief, seismic, or thermal effects. The objective of this study is to calculate seepage rates, for various drift-degradation scenarios and for different values of percolation flux, in the Topopah Spring middle nonlithophysal (Tptpmn) and the Topopah Spring lower lithophysal (Tptpll) units at Yucca Mountain. Seepage calculations are conducted by (1) defining a heterogeneous drift-scale permeability model with field data, (2) selecting calibrated parameters associated with the Tptpmn and Tptpll units, and (3) simulating seepage, based on detailed degraded-drift profiles obtained from a separate rock mechanics engineering analysis. The simulation results indicate (1) that the seepage threshold (i.e., the percolation flux at which seepage first occurs) is not significantly changed by drift degradation and (2) the degradation-induced increase in seepage above the threshold is influenced probably more by the shape of the cavity created by rockfall than by rockfall volume.