Definition Of Price Stability Research Articles

Inflation Expectations, Inflation Target Credibility, and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Germany.

Using the exact wording of the European Central Bank's definition of price stability, we started a representative online survey of German citizens in January 2019 that is designed to measure long-term inflation expectations and the credibility of the inflation target. Our results indicate that credibility has decreased in our sample period, particularly in the course of the deep recession implied by the Covid-19 pandemic. Interestingly, even though inflation rates in Germany have been clearly below 2% for several years, credibility has declined mainly because Germans increasingly expect that inflation will be much higher than 2% over the medium term. We investigate how inflation expectations and the impact of the pandemic depend on personal characteristics including age, gender, education, and politicalattitude.

Inflation Measurement and its Assessment in the Ecb's Monetary Policy Strategy Review

This paper – which takes into consideration overall experience with the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as well as the improvements made to this measure of inflation since 2003 – finds that the HICP continues to fulfil the prerequisites for the index underlying the ECB’s definition of price stability. Nonetheless, there is scope for enhancing the HICP, especially by including owner-occupied housing (OOH) using the net acquisitions approach. Filling this long-standing gap is of utmost importance to increase the coverage and cross-country comparability of the HICP. In addition to integrating OOH into the HICP, further improvements would be welcome in harmonisation, especially regarding the treatment of product replacement and quality adjustment. Such measures may also help reduce the measurement bias that still exists in the HICP. Overall, a knowledge gap concerning the exact size of the measurement bias of the HICP remains, which calls for further research. More generally, the paper also finds that auxiliary inflation measures can play an important role in the ECB’s economic and monetary analyses. This applies not only to analytical series including OOH, but also to measures of underlying inflation or a cost of living index. JEL Classification: C43, C52, C82, E31, E52

Inflation Expectations, Inflation Target Credibility and the COVID-19 Pandemic: New Evidence from Germany

Using the exact wording of the ECB’s definition of price-stability, we started a representative online survey of German citizens in January 2019 that is designed to measure long-term inflation expectations and the credibility of the inflation target. Our results indicate that credibility has decreased in our sample period, particularly in the course of the deep recession implied by the COVID-19 pandemic. Interestingly, even though inflation rates in Germany have been clearly below 2% for several years, credibility has declined mainly because Germans increasingly expect that inflation will be much higher than 2% over the medium term. We investigate how inflation expectations and the impact of the pandemic depend on personal characteristics including age, gender, education, income, and political attitude.

СТАБИЛЬНОСТЬ ЦЕН В ЭКОНОМИКЕ: КОЛИЧЕСТВЕННОЕ ОПРЕДЕЛЕНИЕ, ПРЕИМУЩЕСТВА И ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯ ИНФЛЯЦИИ И ДЕФЛЯЦИИ

The study is devoted to the specifics of price stability in the economy at a theoretical level. The policies (fiscal and monetary) considered in the paper are used to describe the possible forms of impact on price stability. Analyzed the quantitative definition of price stability, the benefits and consequences of inflation and deflation. Taking into account the available in the scientific literature, according to the investigated author's problems, it was concluded that there are various approaches to determining the stability of prices adopted, both within the framework of financial regulators and state bodies.

A new twist on an old framework: bounded price-level targeting

One of the notable macroeconomic developments of the last two decades has been the apparent decline in the so-called neutral real rate of interest (or r-star). The declining level of r-star has significantly reduced forecasts of the steady-state federal funds rate associated with “normalized” monetary policy. Because a lower steady-state policy rate implies a heightened probability of reaching the effective lower bound on the federal funds rate in the event of an economic downturn, a debate has opened among academics and policymakers about potential changes in Fed’s monetary policy framework that might ameliorate the lower bound problem. This paper introduces a variation of price-level targeting that satisfies a definition of price stability that requires the central bank to keep the price level within a pre-specified percentage of a pre-specified target path for all time horizons into the future. The framework, referred to as bounded price-level targeting, is compared to other proposed frameworks. The paper discusses the conditions under which bounded price-level targeting is consistent with other proposals.

A Composite Index of Inflation Tendencies in the Euro Area

Assessing underlying inflation developments is crucial for a correct calibration of the monetary policy stance. To monitor the adjustment in the path of euro area inflation towards the ECB’s definition of price stability, we select a number of indicators of price dynamics in the area. We then construct a composite index summarizing the information contained in those indicators by estimating several univariate probability models. The index, which provides a synthetic measure of inflationary pressures net of the most volatile components, can be interpreted as gauging the probability of inflation returning to 1.9 per cent or over within a given time horizon. Our findings, which are based on the information available in July 2017, signal that, despite the improvement in price dynamics since the beginning of the year, the adjustment of inflation rates towards levels below, but close to, 2 per cent over the medium term is still limited and far from being sustained.

Why is Inflation so Low in the Euro Area?

Inflation in the euro area has been falling steadily since early 2013 and at the end of 2014 turned negative. Part of the decline has been due to oil prices, but the weakness of aggregate demand has also played a significant role. This paper uses a VAR model to quantify the contribution of oil supply, aggregate demand and monetary policy shocks (identified by means of sign restrictions) on inflation in the euro area. The analysis suggests that in the last two years inflation has been driven down by all three factors, as the effective lower bound to policy rates has prevented the European Central Bank from reducing the short-term rates to support economic activity and align inflation with the definition of price stability. Remarkably, the joint contribution of monetary and demand shocks is at least as important as that of oil price developments to the deviation of inflation from its baseline. Country-by-country analysis shows that both aggregate demand and oil supply shocks have driven inflation down everywhere, albeit with varying intensity. The findings stand confirmed after a series of robustness checks.

How Do Inflation Expectations Form? New Insights from a High-Frequency Survey

We provide new insights on the formation of inflation expectations - in particular at a time of great financial and economic turmoil - by evaluating results from a survey conducted from July 2009 through July 2010. Participants in this survey answered a weekly questionnaire about their short-, medium- and long-term inflation expectations. Participants received common information sets with data relevant to euro area inflation. Our analysis of survey responses reveals several interesting results. First, our evidence is consistent with long-term expectations having remained well anchored to the ECB's definition of price stability, which acted as a focal point for long-term expectations. Second, the turmoil in euro area bond markets triggered by the Greek fiscal crisis influenced short- and medium-term inflation expectations but had only a very small impact on long-term expectations. By contrast, longterm expectations did not react to developments of the euro area wide fiscal burden. Third, participants changed their expectations fairly frequently. The longer the horizon, the less frequent but larger these changes were. Fourth, expectations exhibit a large degree of timevariant non-normality. Fifth, inflation expectations appear fairly homogenous across groups of agents at the shorter horizon but less so at the medium- and long-term horizons.

How do Inflation Expectations Form? New Insights from a High-Frequency Survey

We provide new insights on the formation of inflation expectations - in particular at a time of great financial and economic turmoil - by evaluating results from a survey conducted from July 2009 through July 2010. Participants in this survey answered a weekly questionnaire about their short-, medium- and long-term inflation expectations. Participants received common information sets with data relevant to euro area inflation. Our analysis of survey responses reveals several interesting results. First, our evidence is consistent with long-term expectations having remained well anchored to the ECB's definition of price stability, which acted as a focal point for long-term expectations. Second, the turmoil in euro area bond markets triggered by the Greek fiscal crisis influenced short- and mediumterm inflation expectations but had only a very small impact on long-term expectations. By contrast, long-term expectations did not react to developments of the euro area wide fiscal burden. Third, participants changed their expectations fairly frequently. The longer the horizon, the less frequent but larger these changes were. Fourth, expectations exhibit a large degree of time-variant non-normality. Fifth, inflation expectations appear fairly homogenous across groups of agents at the shorter horizon but less so at the medium- and long-term horizons.

Core Versus Headline Inflation: An Opportunity for Greater Transparency

T he core inflation measures—which exclude food and energy—are commonly used in monetary policy deliberations. Recently, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been accused of being out of touch with consumers because the prices of groceries and gas have increased much more rapidly than the prices of the goods reflected in the core measures.1 In a recent speech, Janet Yellen, Vice Chair of the Fed’s Board of Governors, defended the FOMC’s use of core measures, saying that the Committee’s “focus on core and other inflation measures that may exclude recent increases in the cost of gasoline and other household essentials is not intended to downplay the importance of these items in the cost of living or to lower the bar on the definition of price stability.” Rather, she said, “The Federal Reserve aims to stabilize inflation across the entire basket of goods and services that households purchase, including energy and food,” but the FOMC focuses on core inflation measures because “in light of the volatility of food and energy prices, core inflation has been a better forecaster of overall inflation in the medium term than overall inflation itself has been over the past 25 years.”2 This essay notes that the evidence that core inflation is a better predictor of future headline inflation is mixed and presents the results of a simple test of the proposition that core inflation is a better predictor of future headline inflation than headline inflation. The essay concludes by showing that over periods of interest to consumers, the difference in the loss of purchasing power reflected by the core and headline measures is economically relevant. Not only is the evidence of the relative predictive power of the core versus the headline measures mixed, but much of the pertinent literature investigates the predictive power of core inflation measures that differ from those used by the FOMC.3 Consequently, surprisingly few studies address the hypothesis that core inflation used by the FOMC better predicts future headline inflation than headline inflation itself. In addition, much of the existing research uses a one-year forecast horizon, which is likely shorter than the “medium-term” horizon of interest to policymakers. Speci fically, I test whether the average level of core inflation or headline inflation over the most recent two or three years is a better predictor of headline inflation over the next two or three years.4 Twoand three-year forecast horizons are assumed to represent the “medium term.” I use a standard procedure to test whether the difference in the two forecasts is statistically significant in terms of either the mean square forecast error (MSFE) or the mean absolute forecast error (MAFE). Vice Chair Yellen did not specify a particular inflation index, so the analysis presented Core Versus Headline Inflation: An Opportunity for Greater Transparency

Testing for asymmetries in the preferences of the euro-area monetary policymaker1

This article tests for asymmetries in the preferences of the euro-area monetary policymaker with 1995:1–2005:2 data from the latest update of the European Central Bank's (ECB's) Area-wide database. Following the relevant literature, we distinguish between three types of asymmetry: precautionary demand for expansions, precautionary demand for price stability and interest rate smoothing asymmetry. Based on the joint generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation of the Euler equation of optimal policy and the aggregate supply-aggregate demand (AS-AD) structure of the macroeconomy, we find evidence of precautionary demand for price stability in the preferences revealed by the monetary policymaker. This type of asymmetry is consistent with the ECB's definition of price stability and with the priority of credibility-building by a recently created monetary authority. 1CEMPRE–Centro de Estudos Macroeconómicos e Previsão - is a research centre supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, which is financed by European Union and Portuguese funds.

The Bundesbank and the formation of the ECB's monetary policy strategy

The ECB is almost a complete copy of the Bundesbank's organization, having adopted the Bundesbank's definition of price stability and its monetary targeting strategy. But rather than following simply from coercive power attached to the relative size of the German economy and EU budget contribution, the decision to emulate the German monetary policy model was the result of the persuasive power of the Bundesbank, the domestic success of the German model, and the hope held by European central bankers and many European politicians that success could be replicated on the European level. The primary interests of European central bankers were to appear competent and to maintain their independence; their search for the monetary policy ideas that provided the best chance of achieving these goals led to the German model.

Testing for Asymmetries in the Preferences of the Euro-Area Monetary Policymaker

This paper tests for asymmetries in the preferences of the Euro-Area monetary policymaker with 1995:I-2004:III data from the last update of the ECB's Area-wide database. Following the relevant literature, we distinguish between three types of asymmetry: precautionary demand for expansions, precautionary demand for price stability and interest rate smoothing asymmetry. Based on the joint GMM estimation of the Euler equation of optimal policy and the AS-AD structure of the macroeconomy, we find evidence of precautionary demand for price stability in the preferences revealed by the monetary policymaker. This type of asymmetry is consistent with the ECB's definition of price stability and with the priority of credibility-building by a recently created monetary authority.

Key Issues for Monetary Policy: An ECB View

The European single currency, the euro, has become a visible and successful token of Europeans' drive towards unification. It was born in an era in which high-speed structural change tests the validity of economic models and defies searches for standard policy recipes. Like all central banks, the European Central Bank (ECB) must deal with uncertainty that derives not only from the timely identification of important disturbances but also imperfect knowledge of how such disturbances affect the economy. These problems are compounded by the likelihood that important and poorly understood structural changes accompany cyclical forces. Unification of Europe has brought about significant structural change, which has been amplified by the recent enlargement of the European Union. Under these conditions, independence of the ECB, a mandate of price stability, and clear rules of fiscal governance have been essential for the credibility of the euro. Thus, the ECB has quantified its target of price stability in a mediumterm framework. Like the US Federal Reserve, the ECB's policy framework is comprehensive, and its decisions are transparent. Unlike the Fed, however, the ECB has an explicit, quantitative definition of price stability and performs a detailed and explicit crosscheck between its economic analysis and detailed monetary analysis. These differences notwithstanding, the similarities between the ECB and the Fed are more important.

Definition of Price Stability, Range and Point Inflation Targets: The Anchoring of Long-Term Inflation Expectations

Definition of Price Stability, Range and Point Inflation Targets: The Anchoring of Long-Term Inflation Expectations

Monetary Policy Without Central Bank Money: A Swiss Perspective

At the end of 1999, the Swiss National Bank modified its monetary policy concept and abandoned monetary targeting in favor of an approach based on an inflation forecast. Although central bank money or the monetary base, the SNB's intermediate target variable, was plagued by instabilities, the switch to a new policy framework was motivated by more fundamental problems arising from monetary targeting than the stability of money demand. While the monetary base served as an effective long-run policy anchor, it was not well suited for deciding how the SNB should respond to unexpected shocks, notably exchange rate and cyclical shocks. A policy approach based on an inflation forecast should help the SNB to deal better with such shocks. The paper contrasts the new policy framework with the SNB's experience of monetary targeting. It also discusses two other innovations introduced by the SNB: A definition of price stability, its ultimate policy objective, and an operational target band for the three-month interest rate. R A first draft of this paper was presented at the Conference on the Future of Monetary Policy, sponsored by the World Bank, Washington D.C., July 11, 2000. I am indebted to Michel Peytrignet and Adam Posen for their very useful comments and to Thomas Koch for preparing the figures.