Decrease In Unemployment Rate Research Articles

How do density, employment and transit affect the prevalence of COVID-19 pandemic? A study of 3,141 counties across the United States

Previous research has explored the effect of the built environment on the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. This study extends the existing literature by examining the relationship between pandemic prevalence and density, employment, and transit factors at the county level. Using multilinear spatial-lag regressions and time series clustering analyses on the Smart Location Database encompassing 3141 counties in the United States, our findings reveal the following: (1) Density, employment, and transit variables yield heterogeneous effects to infection rate, death rate, and mortality rate. (2) Pedestrian-oriented road density is positively correlated to the prevalence of COVID-19, every 0.011 miles/acre increase is associated with 1% increase in the infection rate. (3) A consistent negative correlation is observed between jobs per household and infection rate, while a decrease in unemployment rate leads to an increase in the death rate. (4) The results from time series analysis suggest that areas characterized by low auto-oriented intersection density but high pedestrian-oriented road density are more susceptible to the impacts of pandemics. This highlights the need to prioritize pandemic prevention efforts in the suburban and rural areas with low population density, as emphasized in existing literature emphasized.

A cross-country analysis of macroeconomic responses to COVID-19 pandemic using Twitter sentiments.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating impact on the global economy. In this paper, we use the Phillips curve to compare and analyze the macroeconomics of three different countries with distinct income levels, namely, lower-middle (Nigeria), upper-middle (South Africa), and high (Canada) income. We aim to (1) find macroeconomic changes in the three countries during the pandemic compared to pre-pandemic time, (2) compare the countries in terms of response to the COVID-19 economic crisis, and (3) compare their expected economic reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic in the near future. An advantage to our work is that we analyze macroeconomics on a monthly basis to capture the shocks and rapid changes caused by on and off rounds of lockdowns. We use the volume and social sentiments of the Twitter data to approximate the macroeconomic statistics. We apply four different machine learning algorithms to estimate the unemployment rate of South Africa and Nigeria on monthly basis. The results show that at the beginning of the pandemic the unemployment rate increased for all the three countries. However, Canada was able to control and reduce the unemployment rate during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nonetheless, in line with the Phillips curve short-run, the inflation rate of Canada increased to a level that has never occurred in more than fifteen years. Nigeria and South Africa have not been able to control the unemployment rate and did not return to the pre-COVID-19 level. Yet, the inflation rate has increased in both countries. The inflation rate is still comparable to the pre-COVID-19 level in South Africa, but based on the Phillips curve short-run, it will increase further, if the unemployment rate decreases. Unfortunately, Nigeria is experiencing a horrible stagflation and a wild increase in both unemployment and inflation rates. This shows how vulnerable lower-middle-income countries could be to lockdowns and economic restrictions. In the near future, the main concern for all the countries is the high inflation rate. This work can potentially lead to more targeted and publicly acceptable policies based on social media content.

The Comparison of Classical and Robust Biased Regression Methods for Determining Unemployment Rate in Turkey: Period of 1985-2012

Unemployment is one of the most important issues in macro economics. Unemployment creates many economic and social problems in the economy. The condition and qualification of labor force in a country show economical developments. In the light of these facts, a developing country should overcome the problem of unemployment. In this study, the performance of robust biased Robust Ridge Regression (RRR), Robust Principal Component Regression (RPCR) and RSIMPLS methods are compared with each other and their classical versions known as Ridge Regression (RR), Principal Component Regression (PCR) and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) in terms of predictive ability by using trimmed Root Mean Squared Error (TRMSE) statistic in case of both of multicollinearity and outliers existence in an unemployment data set of Turkey. Analysis results show that RRR model is chosen as the best model for determining unemployment rate in Turkey for the period of 1985-2012. Robust biased RRR method showed that the most important independent variable effecting the unemployment rate is Purchasing Power Parities (PPP). The least important variables effecting the unemployment rate are Import Growth Rate (IMP) and Export Growth Rate (EXP). Hence, any increment in PPP cause an important increment in unemployment rate, however, any increment in IMP causes an unimportant increase in unemployment rate. Any increment in EXP causes an unimportant decrease in unemployment rate.

Ticaret Liberalizasyonu ve İhracat Çeşitlendirmesinin İşşizliğe Etkisi : Ampirik bir Analiz

This study investigates the effects of trade liberalization and export diversification on total unemployment for a group of OECD countries for the period between 1991 and 2014. In the empirical analysis, several liberalization and export diversification indices as well as various control variables are used and it is found that as countries engage more in international trade and diversify their export baskets, unemployment rate decreases. Thus, it can be argued that OECD countries should follow policies that are in favor of trade liberalization rather than protectionism. Moreover, diversification of export baskets instead of specialization is of great importance in decreasing the unemployment rate.

Impact of Income Inequality on Economic Growth – Evidence from the Ten (10) Biggest Economies in Africa

Contributing to existing literature on the relationship between inequality and economic growth, this paper focused on the top ten biggest economies in Africa. There was positive correlation between income inequality and economic growth in the long term. Mean School Year and Gross Savings also regressed positively because it was established that a 1% increase in the number of years spent in school within these countries will causes the economy to grow about 214.76%, and 1% increase in gross savings pushes economic growth by 3.61% annually. Expectedly, unemployment had negative relationship with economic growth. A 1% decrease in unemployment rate within these countries will boost long term economic growth by 7.72%. Due to low educational standard, inadequate technological advancement, high unemployment rate and low human capital, gross capital formation had inverse relationship with economic growth in these countries. The paper recommended that Governments in these countries adopt strategies and approaches such as increase public spending and create employment opportunities, adopt new educational policy to increase the average school years with accompanying improvement in its quality. Keywords : Economic growth, Income Inequality, African Countries, Gini Coefficient, Unemployment DOI: 10.7176/JESD/10-14-07 Publication date: July 31 st 2020

Дональд Трамп и избиратели: оценки основных проблем

В статье на основе изучения обширного массива результатов опросов общественного мнения в США рассматриваются отношения американцев к деятельности президента Дональда Трампа. Анализ общественного мнения за время его президентства показывает, что многие американцы не разделяет подходы Трампа к ключевым проблемам внутренней и внешней политики. На основании этих оценок будут формироваться электоральные намерения американских избирателей на предстоящих президентских выборах в ноябре 2020 года. Американцы положительно оценивают действия Трампа в сфере экономики, отмечая экономический рост в стране, снижение безработицы, высказывая положительные прогнозы на будущее. В то же время многие отмечают, что от снижения налогов выиграли, прежде всего, богатые слои, при этом среди небелого населения большинство негативно оценивает экономическую политику Трампа. Также критически большинство американцев оценивают политику Трампа по отмене, радикальному изменению системы медицинского страхования, принятой при Бараке Обаме («Обамакер»). Одним из первых шагов Трампа в области экологии и изменении климата стал выход США из Парижского соглашения по изменению климата. Тогда же, в 2017 г., опросы показали, что большинство населения против этого — 53%, в то время как поддержали этот шаг лишь 30%. По главным вопросам иммигрантской политики Трампа общественное мнение в основном определилось: американцы готовы принять незаконных иммигрантов, приехавших детьми, они против строительства стены на границе с Мексикой и считают, что число иммигрантов должно оставаться таким же, как сегодня, или увеличиться, а не сокращаться. Эти оценки идут вразрез политике Трампа. 53% избирателей считают, что «президент США Дональд Трамп не говорил правду о своей политике в отношении Украины»; 54% — что он «злоупотребил своими полномочиями в действиях относительно Украины»; 52% — что Трамп препятствовал конгрессу в расследовании его действий по отношении к Украине. И 48% считают, что Трамп совершал преступления на посту президента, 44% так не думают. Большинство американцев критически оценивают действия президента Трампа во время эпидемии коронавируса, особенно в начальной фазе кризиса. В целом деятельность Трампа на посту президента 50% американцев оценивают отрицательно, 40% положительно и 10% не имеют мнения. Лишь в области экономики положительные оценки превышают отрицательные — 50% : 39%.

Decomposition of unemployment rates in Poland according to voivodeships in the years 2013–2018

Background: Unemployment is a phenomenon that occurs in all market economies, although with different intensity. Its rate is influenced by many factors related to labour demand and labour supply, as well as by structural mismatches between the two sides of the labour market, its effec­tiveness, the type of macroeconomic policy, and the labour market institutions.
 Research purpose: The aim of the research is to determine the influence of labour supply and la­bour demand factors on changes in unemployment rates in Polish voivodeships from 2013 to 2018.
 Methods: The unemployment rates for Poland and its voivodeships are decomposed using the aggregate data on unemployment rates, employment rates, and economic activity rates published by the GUS and the formula proposed by Elsby, Hobijn, and Sahin (2010).
 Conclusions: The research results point to rising employment rates as the key factor driving the fall of unemployment rates between 2013 and 2018 in most Polish voivodeships. The exceptions are the Lubelskie and Świętokrzyskie voivodeships, where unemployment rate decreases were mainly caused by outflows from employment to inactivity. The downward trends in unemploy­ment rates in Poland and some of its voivodeships in the years 2015–2018 were facilitated by processes taking place on the supply side of the labour market.

The Discouraged Worker Effect and the Added Worker Effect within the Framework of European Debt Crisis

The debt crisis experienced in Europe has had several adverse effects on economies of countries. Employment is one of the adversely affected areas. The relationship between the labor force participation rate and unemployment is essentially examined within the framework of two hypotheses. These hypotheses are “The Discouraged Worker Effect” and “The Added Worker Effect”. The discouraged worker effect anticipates that workers looking for employment for extended periods of time will withdraw from the labor market due to losing hope in periods of economic recession. According to this hypothesis, it is expected that the labor force participation rate will increase once the unemployment rate decreases and vice versa. The added worker effect anticipates that if the worker who provides the livelihood of the family becomes unemployed, other members of the family will participate in the labor market. According to this hypothesis, it is expected that the labor force participation rate will decrease once the unemployment rate decreases and vice versa. This study aims to test whether these two effects apply to selected Euro zone countries (PIIGGS-Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Great Britain, Spain) during the European Debt Crisis .

Conceptual approaches to rural development in conditions of decentralization

The purpose of the article is to unveil conceptual approaches to rural development based on the definition of various types of this development, to substantiate the directions of its diversification in the context of decentralization taking into account the experience of the European Union. The article explores the various types of rural development to substantiate the conceptual approaches to its provision in the context of decentralization reform. The generalization of scientific approaches to the types of rural development gives reason to claim that there is currently no single conceptual approach to the concept under study. Sustainable, balanced, resistant, agrarian, socio-economic, agricultural, integrated, complex, perspective types of rural development are identified. The concepts of “development of rural territories” and “rural development” are described and their use is proposed as identical. It is proposed to consider rural development as a socio-ecological-economic process of extended reproduction of rural development, which ensures harmonious growth of economic, social, demographic, ethnic and environmental spheres. The article determines that the notion of “sustainable”, “balanced”, “resistant” in the scientific literature is disclosed in the framework of the study of priorities for sustainable development of rural areas. The article confirms that the complex development of rural territories is connected with decentralization and creation of integrated territorial communities, which use available natural, economic, social and financial resources. Quality of life of rural residents is determined to be the general criterion that characterizes the development of rural areas. The authors reveal that when the rural population is involved in production on the territory of the community, the unemployment rate decreases, household incomes increase, local budget revenues grow at the expense of the personal income tax. Probable ways of rural development are analyzed on the basis of the experience of the European Union. The need to apply an integrated approach to rural development, that is, to identify this development as diversified, proportional and integrated, is substantiated.

Does unemployment have asymmetric effects on suicide rates? Evidence from the United States: 1928–2013

This study applied the recently developed asymmetric causality test and asymmetric generalised impulse-response method to demonstrate the dynamic relationship between unemployment and suicide rates in the U.S. over the period of 1928–2013. The results suggest that there exist asymmetric effects of unemployment on suicide rates. An economic recession (in terms of an increase in unemployment rate) is more likely to increase the suicide rate among an old age group (55–64 years old) than among other age groups, while an economic expansion (in terms of a decrease in unemployment rate) is more likely to reduce the suicide rate of young (15–24 and 25–34 years old) and middle age groups (35–44 and 45–54 years old) than their counterpart. Therefore, policy implications generated from our results include the following: that intervention to prevent suicidal behaviour should be directed more towards the older age group during economic recession and that we may expect that an economic expansion may not result in a great reduction of suicide rates for the old age (55–64 years) group.

PENDEKATAN TEORITIS ANALISIS SUMBER-SUMBER INFLASI

The Theory Approach of Inflation Determinant Analysis has the goal to identify the sources of inflation and finding the alternative policy strategy to stabilizing the inflation. According to the inflation decomposition, the source of inflation is core or underlying inflation, noncore inflation, and noise inflation. According to the expected-augmented Phillips curve, the deviation of inflation to the expected inflation is sourced from supply shocks, the deviation of economic growth rate to the natural rate, and the deviation of unemployment rate to the natural rate. According to the dynamic monetary policy inconsistent, inflation is sourced from inflation target, the deviation of economic growth rate to natural rate, the deviation of unemployment rate to natural rate, and supply shock. According to the credibility monetary policy, inflation is sourced from expected inflation and the deviation of economic growth rate to natural rate. According to the inflation composition, the deviation of inflation to expected inflation is sourced from noncore inflation and noise inflation. So that the relation between the expected-augmented Phillips curvel, the dynamic monetary policy inconsistent, and the credibility monetary policy is show that the noncore inflation and the noise inflation determined by the deviation of economic growth rate to natural rate, the deviation of unemployment rate to natural rate, and supply shock. The conclution of this theory is show that the equilibrium in economic growth target and economic growth to natural rate, unemployment rate to natural rate is create the equilibrium in inflation and expected inflation. So the alternative policy stategy is increase in economic growth to the natural rate or decrease unemployment rate to the natural rate. From the side of inflation decomposition, increase in economic growth to the natural rate or decrease in unemployment rate to the natural rate is the same to maintaine the stabilizing in administered inflation, volatile food inflation, and traded goods inflation. From the side monetary policy, the stabilizing in volatile food inflation and traded goods inflation is created if increasing in monetary growth directed to small and medium business, because the small and medium business is absorpt more employment than the big business. From the side fiscal policy, the stabilizing in administered inflation is created if the government can eliminate the corruption in government projects. Eliminating the corruption in government projects will eliminate increase in price of strategic commodities, and it increase in social welfare.

PENDEKATAN TEORITIS ANALISIS SUMBER-SUMBER INFLASI

The Theory Approach of Inflation Determinant Analysis has the goal to identify the sources of inflation and finding the alternative policy strategy to stabilizing the inflation. According to the inflation decomposition, the source of inflation is core or underlying inflation, noncore inflation, and noise inflation. According to the expected-augmented Phillips curve, the deviation of inflation to the expected inflation is sourced from supply shocks, the deviation of economic growth rate to the natural rate, and the deviation of unemployment rate to the natural rate. According to the dynamic monetary policy inconsistent, inflation is sourced from inflation target, the deviation of economic growth rate to natural rate, the deviation of unemployment rate to natural rate, and supply shock. According to the credibility monetary policy, inflation is sourced from expected inflation and the deviation of economic growth rate to natural rate.
 According to the inflation composition, the deviation of inflation to expected inflation is sourced from noncore inflation and noise inflation. So that the relation between the expected-augmented Phillips curvel, the dynamic monetary policy inconsistent, and the credibility monetary policy is show that the noncore inflation and the noise inflation determined by the deviation of economic growth rate to natural rate, the deviation of unemployment rate to natural rate, and supply shock. The conclution of this theory is show that the equilibrium in economic growth target and economic growth to natural rate, unemployment rate to natural rate is create the equilibrium in inflation and expected inflation. So the alternative policy stategy is increase in economic growth to the natural rate or decrease unemployment rate to the natural rate. From the side of inflation decomposition, increase in economic growth to the natural rate or decrease in unemployment rate to the natural rate is the same to maintaine the stabilizing in administered inflation, volatile food inflation, and traded goods inflation.
 From the side monetary policy, the stabilizing in volatile food inflation and traded goods inflation is created if increasing in monetary growth directed to small and medium business, because the small and medium business is absorpt more employment than the big business. From the side fiscal policy, the stabilizing in administered inflation is created if the government can eliminate the corruption in government projects. Eliminating the corruption in government projects will eliminate increase in price of strategic commodities, and it increase in social welfare.

Research of Internal Migration by Compartment Models

Migration, which consists of quite complex components, is a concept subjected in many scientific research areas. Internal migration refers a migration occurred in the boundaries of a country. Migration in Turkey usually tends to be directed towards larger and more industrialized provinces. Nevertheless, there exists a density on the direction of certain provinces such as migration from Erzurum to Bursa. Nowadays, the proceeding of the migration flows between Erzurum and Bursa since 1980’s is another point which necessitates to be examined. The purpose of this study is to investigate the migration between Erzurum and Bursa by using compartment models in the 1980-2015 period. The paper performs compartment models to explain the changes of migration flows in terms of gross domestic product, unemployment rate, and time. According to the results, there is a significant increase in migration from Erzurum to Bursa depending on the time of migration and unemployment rate. Nonetheless, there is no significant change related with the gross domestic product. In addition, the study has shown that migration increases as unemployment rate decreases; but there is no significant change in migration depending on time and gross domestic product from Bursa to Erzurum.

Does High Unemployment Rate Cause High Suicide Rate? Evidence from Japan and South Korea

This study utilizes an asymmetric Granger causality test suggested by Hatemi-J (2012) to examine the causal relationship running from unemployment rate to suicide rate over the period of 1985 to 2012 in Japan and South Korea. Empirical results show that no Granger causality running from unemployment rate to suicide rate exists in Japan. However, results show that for South Korea, Granger causality exists running from a negative unemployment rate shock to a negative shock in suicide rate. More specifically, a decrease in unemployment rate leads to a decrease in suicide rate. Although the findings of this study do not support that an increase in unemployment rate has led to an increase in suicide rate for Japan and South Korea, a decrease in unemployment rate leads to a decrease in suicide rate in South Korea. Therefore, policy makers in South Korea could decrease unemployment rate to cause a decrease in suicide rate.

RECOMMENDED CHANGES IN STUDENTS' INDUSTRIAL WORK EXPERIENCE SCHEME (SIWES) GEARED TOWARDS DECREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF BUSINESS EDUCATION GRADUATES IN NIGERIA

The high rate of unemployment of vocational education graduates in Nigeria was one of the major reasons for the introduction of Stunents' Industrial Works Experience Scheme (SIWES). Based on the high rate of unemployment, this study was undertaken to recommend the needed changes to be made in SIWES to facilitate decrease in unemployment rate of business education graduates in Nigeria. Two research questions were answered by the study, while two null hypotheses were formulated and tested. The study adopted survey research design. The population for the study was 320 respondents made up of 64 Business education lecturers, 20 staff of Industrial Training Fund (ITF) and 236 final year students. The instrument for data collection was a structured 32-item questionnaire which was validated by 3 experts. The reliability of the instrument was established using Cronbach alpha which gave a reliability coefficient of 0.87. The data collected were analyzed using mean to answer the research questions, while t-test statistic and analysis of variance (ANOVA) were used for testing the hypotheses at 0.05 level of significance. It was found among others, that re-tooling business education model offices, promulgation of a 'no rejection' of students on training policy, and ITF regulation of student's posting to iindustries of relevance, would facilitate decrease in unemployment rate of business education graduates in Nigeria. The study concludes that SIWES be modified to achieve business education graduates employability and, or self employment objective. It was recommended among others, that ITF should present a new order of studentss' placement to industries of relevance and ensuring that government policy statement regarding the establishment of SIWES is effectively implemented.

Does U.S. macroeconomic news make emerging financial markets riskier?

This study analyzes the impacts of US macroeconomic announcement surprises on the volatility of twelve emerging stock markets by employing asymmetric GJR-GARCH model. The model includes both positive and negative surprises about inflation and unemployment rate announcements in the U.S. We find that volatility shocks are persistent and asymmetric. Asymmetric volatility increases with bad news on US inflation in five out of the twelve countries studied and it increases with a bad news on U.S. unemployment in four out of twelve countries. Asymmetric volatility decreases with good news about US employment situation in eight countries out of twelve countries. Such markets become less risky with an unexpected decrease in unemployment rate in the US. Our findings are important for demonstrating that USA economic growth and employment situation has an impact on many emerging stock markets and that positive US macroeconomic news in fact make many emerging stock markets less volatile.

Do We should Care about Future Participation of Students in the Labour Market?

The communication presents a theoretical reflection based on the fact that as educational level advances, the unemployment rate decreases. Based on this, we set out what should be the place employability should occupy in higher education. We found that the labour market demands professionals with skills related to creative imagination and innovation capabilities; and these are developed through an education that nurtures students’ curiosity and also linked to the vital concerns of learners. We need to rethink and reflect on the role teachers should play, besides mastering the theoretical knowledge of the disciplines they teach, teachers should become designers and developers of learning environments so that students improve their employability, taking into account ethical and scientific criteria. The communication concludes by arguing that caring for students as professionals implies providing an education for job satisfaction and for sustainable and equitable human development.

Decent Work in Rural Regions of IRAN

Purpose: Labor market is one of the most important markets in Iran as in many developed and developing countries. However, although attention to this market has always been at the forefront of economic planning, but in most cases, quantity matters more than quality in this market. It is also visible as regional differences especially the case in urban areas. Therefore, the study of the quality of labor market in rural regions is very important in each aspect. Various indices can be used to evaluate the quality of labor market, decent work is one of those. Therefore, this paper attempts to evaluate the rural areas in terms of this indicator. Methodology: The numerical taxonomy method is used to separate homogeneous areas from non-homogeneous regions and TOPSIS method is applied to assimilate the parameters in homogeneous areas. Finding: The results show that both of Tehran and Sistan and Baluchestan Provinces are situated in non-homogeneous regions in terms of decent work. In addition, this indicator is improved only about Mazandaran, Qom and Kohgiluyeh and Boyerahmad provinces in the final year of the forth economic development program in comparison with first year of this plan. In addition and based on the results of this study, rural areas according to the decent work index haven’t gone to the homogeneity and there are obvious differences between the labor markets in rural areas. Research limitation: ILO introduced a set of 30 decent work indices in order to enable countries to assess and evaluate their job market. While, only 9 indicators is possible to calculate considering to available data in rural areas of Iran. Hence, creating the possibility for achieving to all of decent work and thus calculating the indicators of decent work in rural areas as a whole is the strategy of the future. Practical implications: The results of this study suggest that rural areas is not homogenous regions in terms of decent work indices and the decent work indicators in 2009 compared to 2005 decreased in most rural areas. Hence, according to the market policies, the rural-urban migrations cannot be expected to decrease and so it is necessary to promote decent work indicators in rural areas. Original/value: In this study in addition to quantitative aspects (decrease in unemployment rate and job creation), the qualitative dimension the rural labor market is assessed for the first time in these areas, an approach that could be considered by labor market policy makers as a whole and policy makers in the field of rural areas of Iran specially.

Examining the Relationship of Corruption with Economic Growth, Poverty and Gender Inequality Albanian Case

This thesis examines the relationship of corruption with economic growth, poverty and gender inequality in Albania. Albania is a developing country with a GDP growth rate of 1.6% (World Bank, 2012) and income inequality is a serious problem that government has to deal with. Regarding gender discrimination a lot of progress is made. The current government counts six female ministers in its body. Corruption in Albania is a widespread phenomenon and is found almost in every sector of life. TI CPI index ranks Albania in the 116 place out of 177 countries observed. To study this relationship a multiple regression analysis is conducted. Data for this analysis correspond to years 2000 to 2012 and is accessed from World Bank database. in this analysis CC from World Bank is the dependent variable, while FDI, GDP growth rate, GNI per Capita, Unemployment Rate, Proportion of Women in Parliamentary Positions and Women's share in Labor Force Participation Rate are the explanatory variables. The first two variables are used as indicators of economic growth. GNI per capita and Unemployment rate account for poverty, while the last two variables account for gender inequality. The results have shown that when the level of FDIs in Albania is increased government performance in control of corruption is improved. From the analysis it is understood that a decrease in unemployment rate would increase government performance in control of corruption. The results of the analysis showed that when unemployment rate increase, CC decreases. Regarding the link of corruption with GDP growth rate and GNI per capita, an inverse relationship is observed. With an increase in either GDP growth rate or GNI per capita, CC will decrease. Even the relationship with number of women in parliament and their share in labor force participation rate with corruption resulted to be negative. An increase in either proportion of women in parliamentary positions or share of them in labor force participation rate has shown to worsen government performance in control of corruption.

Investigation into Impact of Fluctuations in Gasoline Prices and Macroeconomic Conditions on Road Safety in Developed Countries

In most developed countries, the total number of road fatalities peaked in the 1970s. Although the data for road fatalities show a distinctive downward trend, a secondary signal that is more cyclical in nature is also evident. These cyclical variations closely track macroeconomic conditions (usually represented by the unemployment rate) and gasoline prices. While the relationship between transportation safety and unemployment and gasoline prices has been investigated, studies have looked at these variables in isolation from other important factors that affect traffic safety. Accordingly, the authors have developed a comprehensive conceptual model that considers a wide array of factors influencing traffic safety and uses this framework to inform an empirical model. For the study of variation across both time and location, a panel data model was employed, with observations for 16 industrialized countries between 1990 and 2010. In the panel model, the dependent variable was fatality per population, and gas price, unemployment, health index, mobility, and vehicle ownership were the independent variables. The results revealed a significant inverse relationship between gas prices and the road fatality rate after controlling for vehicle miles traveled. The elasticity analysis indicated that a 10% decrease in gasoline prices resulted in a 2.19% increase in road fatalities. Likewise, a 10% decrease in unemployment rate resulted in a 0.65% increase in road fatalities. Also, the results implied that the health index had the highest impact on road fatality rates. Overall, these results provide a better understanding of the underlying causes of periodic variations in road fatalities.