Decline In Incidence Research Articles

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Intracerebral Hemorrhage in Young Adults From 1990 to 2021: A Population-Based Study.

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in young adults demands greater attention, given its poor prognosis; however, there has been a paucity of epidemiological data. The objective of this study is to estimate the temporal trends and distribution characteristics of the disease burden in 204 countries or territories between 1990 and 2021. The data, including incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates were sourced from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021. From 1990 to 2021, there was a significant decline in the global incidence (estimated annual percentage change=-1.05), mortality (estimated annual percentage change=-0.92), and DALY (estimated annual percentage change=-1.00) rates of ICH in young adults. In 2021, the highest incidence, mortality, and DALY rates were observed in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania. Globally, high systolic blood pressure, smoking, and ambient particulate matter pollution were identified as the primary contributors to the largest proportion of DALYs associated with ICH in young adults. The health inequality of ICH in young adults has been reduced over the past 3 decades. There is a considerable degree of heterogeneity in the global burden of ICH in young adults. A decline in the incidence, mortality, prevalence, and DALY rates has been observed from 1990 to 2021, however, the number of absolute cases has increased. These results will enable health care professionals, policymakers, and researchers to refine the implementation of cost-effective policies, the allocation of health care resources, and the management of patients to further mitigate the burden of ICH in young adults.

Increased tobacco taxation associated with decreased consumption and bladder cancer incidence.

The temporal relationship between smoking exposure and bladder cancer (BC) diagnosis remains ill-defined. This study aims to cross-correlate and temporally associate changes in United States (US) tobacco tax and consumption with BC incidence. US tobacco consumption, tobacco tax data, and BC incidence rates from 1975-2019 were retrieved. A cross-correlation lag time for tobacco tax and consumption on BC incidence was calculated while controlling for national health expenditure. Proxied lag weighted semi-log linear models to determine the rate of change in BC incidence rates associated with a 1% change in tobacco tax percentages on a national and state level. A 1% increase in tobacco tax was associated with a 1.77% decrease in BC incidence over a 6-year period (R2=0.9687, p=0.00044). 22 states had a statistically significant decline in BC incidences correlated with increasing tobacco taxation. Reduction in BC incidence >0.5% were observed in states along the Western and Eastern US borders. Montana, Utah, Nebraska, Arkansas, and Tennessee did not have decreasing BC incidences from tobacco tax increases. California had the most drastic decline in BC incidence (1.98%). Nationally, tobacco consumption decrease in 1 pack per capita was associated with a 0.47% decrease in BC incidence over a 28-year period (R2=0.984, p=0.00011). Declining US tobacco consumption may indicate significant reduction in BC incidence through 2047. Primary prevention through adaptation of state-legislated tax changes may contribute to a reduction in BC incidence in states lying within the Central US. A national tobacco tax initative can be considered given the improvement in population health.

Tuberculosis in South Asia: A regional analysis of burden, progress, and future projections using the global burden of disease (1990–2021)

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) is a major public health issue in South Asia and accounts for a large share of the global TB burden. Despite global efforts to curb TB incidence and mortality, progress in South Asia has been uneven, necessitating focused regional analysis to guide effective interventions. This study aims to analyse the trends in the TB burden in South Asia from 1990 to 2021 and project future TB incidence rates up to 2031. MethodsThis study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 results to analyse trends in age-standardized incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates (ASDR) associated with TB in South Asia from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to identify significant trends, whereas ARIMA models were used to project future TB incidence rates up to 2031. ResultsThis study revealed significant declines in the ASIR, ASPR, ASDR, and ASMR related to TB in South Asia over the past three decades. Prominent reductions were found in Bangladesh and Bhutan, whereas India, Pakistan, and Nepal continue to bear the highest TB burdens. The ARIMA model projections indicate a continued decline in TB incidence across the region, although the extent of the decline varies by country, with less favourable trends observed in Nepal and Pakistan. The analysis also highlights tobacco use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body mass index as significant risk factors contributing to the TB burden. ConclusionsSubstantial progress has been made in reducing the TB burden in South Asia; however, sustained and intensified efforts are needed, particularly in countries with inconsistent progress. These findings emphasize the need for targeted interventions to meet the WHO End TB Strategy (WETS) targets by 2035. Continuous monitoring and adaptive strategies will be crucial in maintaining and accelerating progress toward TB elimination in South Asia.

Alternative Scenarios for Projected Prevalence of Stroke and Post-Stroke Dementia to 2046 in Ireland: A Model-Based Analysis

Abstract Background Understanding future population need is key for informing stroke service planning. This study aims to evaluate alternative scenarios for future trends in stroke age-specific incidence and case-fatality and estimate impact on projected stroke and post-stroke dementia prevalence in Ireland. Methods We used a probabilistic Markov model to project and track incidence and prevalence of stroke and post-stroke dementia in the Irish population aged 40-89 years to 2046. Using systematic review and observational evidence, we extrapolated trends in stroke age-specific incidence and case-fatality from 1990-2019 to 2016-2046. We defined optimistic, realistic and pessimistic scenarios, including scenarios where trends decelerated over time. Results The stable (pessimistic) scenario indicates a projected 95,278 stroke survivors in 2046 (95% uncertainty interval, UI = 91,404-99,487) (30.1 per 1000 pop), an increase of 53% from 2022 to 2046. The most optimistic scenario would involve a 3.2% increase from 2022 to 2046, to a projected 61,000 survivors. More realistic scenarios based on lower rates of incidence/case-fatality decline, or rates of decline slowing over time, imply an increase ranging between 22.9% and 37.2%. There will be a projected 19,430 with post-stroke dementia in 2046 (95% UI 17,182-21,904), an increase of 69.2% from 2022. In the most optimistic scenario, the increase would be 22.6%, with realistic scenarios implying an increase ranging between 38.9% and 53.2%. Conclusion Future stroke healthcare needs will vary substantially depending on epidemiological trends. A large increase in post-stroke dementia is projected across scenarios. Further work is needed to identify optimal policies to promote continuing decline in stroke incidence.

The temporal trend of tuberculosis burden in an aging population in China: a secondary data analysis from the GBD 2019

BackgroundThe rapid population aging in China has been a big challenge to achieve the goal of ending the global tuberculosis (TB) epidemic. This study aimed to describe the temporal trend of TB burden in China during 1990 ∼ 2019 and to evaluate the effect of age, period, and birth cohort on domestic TB burden, with a specific focus on the elderly.MethodsThe trends of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of TB among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) negative people were described using the data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. Join-point regression model was applied to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of TB burden for different age groups. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was fitted for incidence and mortality, and relative risks (RR) were computed for each age group.ResultsIn 2019, the highest TB deaths (5.23 thousand, 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 4.38 ∼ 6.17) and DALYs (155.18 thousand, 95%UI: 126.47 ∼ 190.55) were observed in the HIV-negative population aged 70 ∼ 74 years in China. The proportion of those aged ≥ 60 years in newly diagnosed TB patients without HIV coinfection increased from 23.82% in 1990 to 37.54% in 2019, while TB deaths rose from 48.70 to 68.64%. During the past 30 years, the AAPC of age-standardized mortality (-7.77, confidence interval [CI]: -8.44∼ -7.10) and DALYs (-7.48, 95% CI: -7.98∼ -6.97) among HIV-negative individuals have shown a decrease, while much slower in the age groups above 70-year-old. The period effect and cohort effect contributed to the decline of TB incidence and mortality, but the age effect led to increasing TB mortality, especially among the ages of 85 ∼ 89 years (RR = 4.59, 95% CI: 4.25 ∼ 4.95).ConclusionsThe burden of TB remains considerable in the elderly population in China. More actions should be taken to improve case finding and the quality of TB healthcare for this high-risk population.

Features of the covid-19 epidemic and characteristics of patients during the spread of the delta SARS-COV-2 in Russia

Aim: To study the manifestations of the COVID-19 epidemic and the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of adult patients with a new coronavirus infection during the dominance of the Delta SARS-COV-2 in the Russian Federation.Materials and Methods: Study included patients aged ≥18 years with a laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19, detected in the period from 09/01/2021 to 11/30/2021 (n= 2 619 298) in 85 Russian regions.Results: There were 2 periods of rise and decline in the COVID-19 incidence and mortality during the spread of the Delta SARS-CoV-2 in Russia: June-September and OctoberDecember 2021 (Wald – Wolfowitz criterion, p<0,05). The median age of patients was 49 [36–63] years, 61,1% were women. Most of patients were 30–39 years old (21,0%), the lowest proportion was among 18–29 years old (12.1%) (p<0,05). Proportion of patients with mild disease was 75,4%, moderate – 18,8%, severe – 3,3%, extremely severe – 2,5% (p<0.05). Hospitalization rate was 23,7%, proportion of patients treated in the intensive care unit was 12.9%, and rate of invasive mechanical ventilation was 9,8%. The median period from the onset of symptoms to the diagnosis was 3 [1-6] days, the duration of the disease and hospitalization was 13,0 [10–16] and 12,0 [9–17] days, respectively. The median age of the deceased patients was 73 [65–82] years, of which 59,1% were women, 61,5% were persons ≥70 years old. The presence of one or more comorbidities was found in 73,9% of deceased patients (OR=17,1; 95% CI: 16,8–17,3).Conclusion: during the period of the spread of the Delta SARS-COV-2 variant in Russia, the number of patients with severe and extremely severe disease among adult patients without taking into account the vaccine history was 5,8%. Old age and the presence of concomitant diseases were key risk factors for adverse outcomes of COVID-19.

The impact of social restrictions on the incidence and microbiology of severe acute tonsillitis.

We aimed to explore the impact of social distancing on the incidence, severity and microbiology of patients with acute tonsillitis (AT). In this single-centre study, we retrospectively included all patients with AT referred to the Ear-Nose-Throat Department, Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark, in the two years preceding versus the two years after the COVID-19 lockdown in Denmark (11 March 2020). In total, 425 patients were included. The incidence of AT was significantly lower in the post-lockdown period (n = 128) than in the pre-lockdown period (n = 297) (p less-than 0.001). Reduced incidence was observed across all age groups. No significant differences were found in patient characteristics between periods. The proportion of hospitalised patients was significantly lower in the post- than in the pre-lockdown period (36% versus 25%, p = 0.032). Prevalent culture findings were Streptococcus pyogenes (15%), S. anginosus group (11%) and Fusobacterium necrophorum (5%). No statistically significant differences in the relative prevalence of individual bacteria were found between periods. The incidence of patients with AT referred to hospital decreased by 57% in the two-year period after the COVID-19 lockdown compared with the period leading up to the lockdown. Our findings suggest that this decrease mirrored a general decline in AT incidence rather than altered referral patterns. None. The study was approved by the Danish Data Protection Agency (#1-16-02-134-23) and the Danish Patient Safety Authority (#1-45-70-41-23).

Trends of older gastric cancer incidence, mortality, and survival in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China: 2010–2019 and prediction to 2024

BackgroundGastric cancer is a major health problem worldwide, with a high incidence among older adults. Given the aging overall population, it was crucial to understand the current burden and prospective trend of older gastric cancer. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends of the incidence, mortality, and survival of older gastric cancer in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China from 2010 to 2019, and to predict the future burden of older gastric cancer up to 2024.MethodsThe study was conducted in Gansu province, an area characterized by the highest gastric cancer incidence and mortality in China. The registration data of gastric cancer incidence and mortality from 2010 to 2019 were pooled from registries in the Gansu Cancer Registration System, while survival data were collected from the First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, and Gansu Cancer Hospital. Chinese standard population in 2000 and the Segi’s world standard population were applied to calculate the age-standardized rate. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in cancer incidence and mortality. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were employed to generate forecasts for incidence and mortality from 2020 to 2024.ResultsBased on registry data from 2010 to 2019, the incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer among older adults remained stable. The incidence rates declined from 439.65 per 100,000 in 2010 to 330.40 per 100,000 in 2019, with an AAPC of -2.59% (95% confidence interval[CI], -5.14 to 0.04, P = 0.06). Similarly, the mortality rate changed from 366.98 per 100,000 in 2010 to 262.03 per 100,000 in 2019, with an AAPC of -2.55% (95% CI, -8.77–4.08%, P = 0.44). In the hospital-based cohort, the decline in survival rates was reported among older patients with gastric cancer in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China, with the 3-year overall survival (OS) decreasing from 58.5% (95% CI, 53.5–63.2%) in 2010 to 34.4% (95%CI, 32.1–36.7%) in 2019, and the 3-year progression-free survival (PFS) decreasing from 51.3% (95%CI, 47.5–55.1%) in 2010 to 34.2% (95%CI, 32.0–36.3%) in 2019, respectively. Moreover, forecasts generated by ARIMA models revealed a significant decline in the incidence and mortality of older gastric cancer in China from 2020 to 2024. Specifically, the incidence rate of older gastric cancer was expected to decrease from 317.94 per 100,000 population in 2020 to 205.59 per 100,000 population in 2024, while the anticipated mortality rate was estimated to decrease from 222.52 per 100,000 population in 2020 to 186.22 per 100,000 population in 2024.ConclusionFrom 2010 to 2019, the incidence and mortality of older gastric cancer remained stable in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China, while the survival rates showed a decline. Based on the ARIMA models, it was anticipated that there might be a continued decline in older gastric cancer incidence and mortality in the highest-risk area in China over the next five years.

Epidemiological Features of the COVID-19 and Characteristics of Patients during the Spread of the Omicron SARS-COV-2 in Russia

Aim. To analyze dynamic of incidence and mortality of COVID-19 and clinical and epidemiological characteristics of adult patients with a new coronavirus infection during the early period of the Omicron SARS-COV-2 distribution in Russia. Materials and Methods. We conducted a retrospective analysis of the dynamics of COVID-19 incidence and mortality in Russia until 2023. Study included patients aged ≥18 years with a laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19, detected in the period from 01/02/2022 to 14/03/2022 (n = 3 582 688) in 85 regions of Russia. Participants were included regardless their COVID-19 vaccination history. Results. We identified 6 periods of rise and decline in the COVID-19 incidence until 2023 in Russia. The 5th (January–July 2022) and the 6th (August-November 2022) periods were associated with the spread of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2. The median age of patients in the early period of Omicron spreading was 49 (36–62) years, 62.7% were women. The largest proportion of patients were represented by the age groups 30–39 and 40–49 years (19.2% each), the lowest – 18–29 years (12.3%). Proportion of patients with mild disease was 90.0%, moderate – 8.5%, severe – 0.9%, extremely severe – 0.6%. Hospitalization rate, proportion of patients treated in the intensive care unit and rate of invasive mechanical ventilation were 7.6%, 9.5% and 6.7% respectively. The median period from the onset of symptoms to the diagnosis was 2 (1–3) days, median of duration of the disease was 8 (6-10) days and median duration of hospitalization was 10 (7–14) days. The median age of the deceased patients was 77 (69–84) years, of which 50.8% were women, 72.6% were persons ≥70 years old. One or more concomitant diseases were detected among 8.7% of patients who became ill and 75.8% of those who died. The probability of hospitalization, admission to the ICU, IMV and death in patients with one or more concomitant diseases were 24.5, 3.2, 3.5 and 35.8 times higher, respectively, compared with patients without concomitant diseases. Conclusion. In the early period of the spread of the Omicron variant in Russia, among adult patients with COVID-19, excluding their vaccine history, the frequency of severe and extremely severe forms of infection was 1.5%. The elderly age and the presence of concomitant diseases remained key risk factors for the development of adverse outcomes of the COVID-19

Melanoma Incidence and Mortality Trends in Sweden.

Over the past decades, many global regions have experienced a steady increase in the incidence of cutaneous melanoma. However, more recently, a downward trend has been observed in the younger age groups in Australia and the US. Yet, in Europe, none of the countries have reported any significant decline in melanoma incidence for any age group. To assess melanoma incidence and mortality trends in Sweden, with a focus on individuals younger than the average age of melanoma onset. This cohort study used data on the national population from the Swedish Melanoma Registry and the Swedish Cancer Registry, which cover more than 99% of all primary invasive cutaneous melanomas diagnosed in the country. All patients diagnosed from 1990 to 2022 were included. Incidence and mortality rates per 100 000 inhabitants were calculated for each year and shown as average annual rates for every 5-year period from 1990 to 2022. Joinpoint regression models were used to evaluate statistical significance of temporal trends and points of change. There were 34 800 primary invasive cutaneous melanomas (19 582 [56.3%] in females and 15 218 [43.7%] in males) reported in 33 324 individuals younger than 60 years (median [IQR] age, 48 [36-58] years) from 1990 to 2022. A consistent rise in melanoma incidence was observed among those 50 to 59 years old. The age groups from 20 to 29 years, 30 to 39 years, and 40 to 49 years showed an incidence peak in 2013 to 2015 followed by stable or significantly declining rates until 2022. In patients younger than 20 years, melanoma incidence remained low with no significant trends. There was also a significant decline in melanoma mortality among 30- to 59-year-old individuals, but not in those 60 years and older. The findings of this cohort study showed a significant recent downward trend in both melanoma incidence and melanoma mortality in the age group 30 to 49 years in Sweden. The reasons for these declines are unclear but may include UV protection, public health campaigns, changing population demographics, and the introduction of effective melanoma treatment. None of these possibilities were evaluated; further study is needed.

Disease burden of AIDS in last 30-year period and its predicted level in next 25-years based on the global burden disease 2019

BackgroundThis study examines global trends in acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, focusing on regional disparities in AIDS incidence, mortality, and DALYs across various levels of socio-demographic index (SDI). It also investigates variations in AIDS incidence, mortality, and DALYs across different age groups, and projects specific trends for the next 25 years.MethodsComprehensive data on AIDS from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories was obtained from a GBD study. This included information on AIDS incidence, mortality, DALYs, and age-standardized rates (ASRs). Projections for AIDS incidence and mortality over the next 25 years were generated using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the global incidence of HIV cases increased from 1,989,282 to 2,057,710, while the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) decreased from 37.59 to 25.24 with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of -2.38. The ASIR exhibited an upward trend in high SDI and high-middle SDI regions, a stable trend in middle SDI regions, and a downward trend in low-middle SDI and low SDI regions. In regions with higher SDI, the ASIR was higher in males than in females, while the opposite was observed in lower SDI regions. Throughout 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized DALY rate remained stable, with EAPCs of 0.24 and 0.08 respectively. Countries with the highest HIV burden affecting women and children under five years of age are primarily situated in lower SDI regions, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Projections indicate a significant continued decline in the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of AIDS over the next 25 years, for both overall and by gender.ConclusionsThe global ASIR decreased from 1990 to 2019. Higher incidence and death rates were observed in the lower SDI region, indicating a greater susceptibility to AIDS among women and < 15 years old. This underscores the urgent need for increased resources to combat AIDS in this region, with focused attention on protecting women and < 15 years old as priority groups. The AIDS epidemic remained severe in sub-Saharan Africa. Projections for the next 25 years indicate a substantial and ongoing decline in both age-standardized incidence and mortality rates.

1123P Melanoma incidence and mortality decline in younger adults in Sweden: Start of a shift in the upgoing trend?

1123P Melanoma incidence and mortality decline in younger adults in Sweden: Start of a shift in the upgoing trend?

Trends in continuity of treatment among children and adolescents living with HIV in 14 districts in South Africa from 2018-2023: A retrospective program analysis

ObjectivesUNAIDS estimates 152,984 children under 15 years living with HIV (C/ALHIV) by 2022 in South Africa. Monitoring the continuity of antiretroviral treatment remains challenging without electronic health records. We explored treatment cohort growth and interruption trends in 14-USAID-PEPFAR-supported districts. MethodsWe reviewed data from 2018 to 2023. We triangulated this data with NAOMI HIV estimates. We used Tableau version 2023.2 for analysis to understand heterogeneity in outcomes. ResultsHIV incidence halved from 4.3 per 1000 in 2017 to 2.5 per 1000 in 2022. HIV testing doubled: 188,371 in FY19Q1 to 399,708 in FY23Q4 while testing positivity declined from 3.3% to 0.7%. Linkage to treatment increased from 67% to 102%, viral suppression increased from 79% to 84%. C/ALHIV treatment cohort started at 82,897 in FY19Q1 and increased to 105,107 in FY20Q2. Subsequently, the cohort decreased to 79,288 in FY23Q4 despite 42,498 initiations and 62,256 returns. ConclusionsThe C/ALHIV treatment and viral suppression increased substantially commensurate with expected trends. Subsequent cohort decline was aligned to vertical transmission reduction, HIV incidence decline, and expected aging. We highlight the inadequacy of the information systems to quantify losses. We underscore a need for resources to enhance program monitoring and interventions to address this gap.

Global, regional, and national drowning trends from 1990 to 2021: Results from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study.

Drowning is a preventable public health concern that burdens emergency care systems globally. This study comprehensively evaluated fatal drowning patterns across population, time, and geography from 1990 to 2021 to inform effective prevention strategies. Using the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study framework and standardized estimation methods, the study analyzed global and regional drowning burden in terms of mortality, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), based on population registry data and drowning-related epidemiological covariates. Global drowning incidents decreased by 33.67% from 1990 to 2021. The drowning incidence rate and mortality rate declined from 24.20 and 9.68 per 100,000 in 1990 to 10.85 and 3.48 per 100,000 in 2021, respectively. Years of life lost and DALYs rates due to drowning also decreased significantly, from 715.80 and 718.69 per 100,000 in 1990 to 197.64 and 198.92 per 100,000 in 2021. Regionally, East Asia had the highest drowning mortality (27.15% of global deaths), while the high-income Asia Pacific region experienced the highest incidence rate (21.38 per 100,000). South Asia had the greatest number of drowning deaths (75,639). Tropical Latin America showed the largest incidence decline, while high-income Asia Pacific exhibited increasing trends. Drowning disproportionately affected children under 5 and the elderly in most regions. While global drowning rates have declined, progress varies across regions. To improve prevention, focus should target low-income/middle-income countries and vulnerable populations like children and the elderly. Increased investment in safety education and rescue resources is vital to address their disproportionate risks.

Evolution of Esophageal Cancer Incidence Patterns in Hong Kong, 1992-2021: An Age-Period-Cohort and Decomposition Analysis.

To elucidate the historical trends, underlying causes and future projections of esophageal cancer incidence in Hong Kong. Utilizing the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model, we analyzed data from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry (1992-2021) and United Nations World Population Prospects 2022 Revision. Age-standardized incidence rates were computed, and APC models evaluated age, period, and cohort effects. Bayesian APC modeling, coupled with decomposition analysis, projected future trends and identified factors influencing incidence. Between 1992 and 2021, both crude and age-standardized incidence rates of esophageal cancer witnessed significant declines. Net drifts exhibited pronounced downward trends for both sexes, with local drift diminishing across all age groups. Period and cohort rate ratios displayed a consistent monotonic decline for both sexes. Projections indicate a continued decline in esophageal cancer incidence. Population decomposition analysis revealed that epidemiological changes offset the increase in esophageal cancer cases due to population growth and aging. The declining trend of esophageal cancer in Hong Kong is influenced by a combination of age, period, and cohort. Sustaining and enhancing these positive trends requires continuous efforts in public health interventions.

Estimating the impact of tuberculosis pathways on transmission - what is the gap left by passive case-finding?

Current passive case-finding policies have not resulted in the expected decline in tuberculosis incidence. Recognition of the variety of disease pathways experienced by individuals with tuberculosis highlights how many are not served by the current prevention and care system, and how much transmission is missed.

Orthopedic injuries due to hoverboard use, reported in the NEISS database, 2015–2022

IntroductionHoverboards are a popular means of recreation in the United States and are associated with significant injury risk, leading to recent efforts to improve their safety. Prior studies on hoverboard-related injuries were either conducted prior to implementation of safety regulations, consisted of short study intervals, or did not place a focus on injuries as they pertain to the orthopedic specialist. The purpose of this study is to provide an updated assessment of the epidemiology of orthopedic hoverboard-related injuries presenting to US emergency departments. Materials and MethodsA retrospective analysis from 2015 to 2022 of the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS) database was conducted, limited to product codes detailing hoverboard-related injuries leading to emergency department visits. Diagnoses of interest included fractures, dislocations, contusions/abrasions, and strains/sprains. Diagnoses were further broken down to analyze anatomic region affected. National estimates (NE) were calculated using survey methods. One-way ANOVA and chi square tests were used to test for changes over time in injuries, age, and gender. Results4,718 total hoverboard-related injuries were captured, with a national estimate of 154,121. The majority of patients were under 18 years old (79.6 %; P < 0.001) and female (52.5 %; P = 0.038). Orthopedic injuries accounted for 68.6 % of the total, with no significant year-by-year change in this proportion (P = 0.069). Fractures were the most common orthopedic injury (64.2 %), followed by contusions/abrasions (20.2 %), strains/sprains (14.6 %), and dislocations (1.0 %). Most fractures affected the forearm (33.8 %) followed by the wrist (29.2 %). Injuries peaked in 2018 (NE = 25,192) and 2020 (NE = 24,958), followed by a decline in incidence more recently. ConclusionHoverboard-related injuries continue to be a common presentation to US emergency departments, though injury rates appear to be decreasing. Orthopedic injuries consistently account for the majority of hoverboard-related injuries reporting to emergency departments, with fractures of the forearm and wrist being most common. Continued efforts toward improving safety measures regarding hoverboard use are warranted.

Risk factors underlying racial and ethnic disparities in tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment outcomes, 2011–19: a multiple mediation analysis of national surveillance data

Despite an overall decline in tuberculosis incidence and mortality in the USA in the past two decades, racial and ethnic disparities in tuberculosis outcomes persist. We aimed to examine the extent to which inequalities in health and neighbourhood-level social vulnerability mediate these disparities. We extracted data from the US National Tuberculosis Surveillance System on individuals with tuberculosis during 2011-19. Individuals with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis or missing data on race and ethnicity were excluded. We examined potential disparities in tuberculosis outcomes among US-born and non-US-born individuals and conducted a mediation analysis for groups with a higher risk of treatment incompletion (a summary outcome comprising diagnosis after death, treatment discontinuation, or death during treatment). We used sequential multiple mediation to evaluate eight potential mediators: three comorbid conditions (HIV, end-stage renal disease, and diabetes), homelessness, and four census tract-level measures (poverty, unemployment, insurance coverage, and racialised economic segregation [measured by Index of Concentration at the ExtremesRace-Income]). We estimated the marginal contribution of each mediator using Shapley values. During 2011-19, 27 788 US-born individuals and 57 225 non-US-born individuals were diagnosed with active tuberculosis, of whom 27 605 and 56 253 individuals, respectively, met eligibility criteria for our analyses. We did not observe evidence of disparities in tuberculosis outcomes for non-US-born individuals by race and ethnicity. Therefore, subsequent analyses were restricted to US-born individuals. Relative to White individuals, Black and Hispanic individuals had a higher risk of not completing tuberculosis treatment (adjusted relative risk 1·27, 95% CI 1·19-1·35; 1·22, 1·11-1·33, respectively). In multiple mediator analysis, the eight measured mediators explained 67% of the disparity for Black individuals and 65% for Hispanic individuals. The biggest contributors to these disparities for Black individuals and Hispanic individuals were concomitant end-stage renal disease, concomitant HIV, census tract-level racialised economic segregation, and census tract-level poverty. Our findings underscore the need for initiatives to reduce disparities in tuberculosis outcomes among US-born individuals, particularly in highly racially and economically polarised neighbourhoods. Mitigating the structural and environmental factors that lead to disparities in the prevalence of comorbidities and their case management should be a priority. US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and Tuberculosis Prevention Epidemiologic and Economic Modeling Agreement.

Trends and Age-Period-Cohort Effect on Acute Hepatitis B Incidence - China, 2005-2021.

This study analyzed long-term trends in the incidence of acute hepatitis B (AHB) in China, focusing on age, period, and cohort effects on incidence. Data on AHB from 2005 to 2021 were extracted from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System (NNDRS) of China for analysis. Incidences of AHB were calculated by gender and age group using population denominators from the 2000, 2010, and 2020 censuses. Joinpoint regression was employed to evaluate trends, and an age-period-cohort model was used to assess the age, period, and cohort effects. The annual average incidence of reported AHB in children aged 14 years and below in low, intermediate, and high endemic areas decreased from 1.65, 2.33, and 2.56 per 100,000 in 2005-2010 to 0.56, 0.58, and 0.48 per 100,000 in the 2016-2021 period. The 15-39-year age group in high endemic areas exhibited the most significant decline in incidence, dropping from 23.14 per 100,000 in 2005 to 4.59 per 100,000 in 2021 among males and from 10.62 per 100,000 to 3.21 per 100,000 among females. Age-period-cohort analysis indicated decreasing age, period, and cohort effects for reported AHB incidence in each endemic area, except for a slight upward trend in the 15-19-year age group and in the cohort born between 1951 and 1955. This study demonstrated a rapid decline in AHB incidence across various endemic areas since 2005. Children aged 14 years and below exhibited very low AHB incidences, while the incidence among individuals over 15 years was higher. To further reduce AHB incidence, hepatitis B vaccine (HepB) coverage should be enhanced among adolescents and adults.

The trend analysis of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections among the elderly aged 50 to 69 years from 1990 to 2030.

The HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STI) excluding HIV among the elderly population urgently require more attention and in-depth study. We aimed to present and predict the worldwide of its burden from 1990 to 2030 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Leveraging the 2019 GBD study, we investigated the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of HIV and other STI in incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality rates for individuals aged 50-69 across different age groups, genders, sociodemographic index (SDI) regions, and nations. The incidence of STI in the population from 2020 to 2030 was explored by Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) prediction model. The HIV incidence rate experienced its fastest growth 1990-1992, peaked in 1996, and gradually declined thereafter, with the 2019 rate being lower than that of 1990. The prevalence rate didn't present a sharp turning point. After 2006, its growth rate accelerated. Both DALYs and mortality rates plateaued high between 2002 and 2005, followed by a decline. The decline was steepest from 2005-2012, yet the rate of decrease slowed noticeably from 2012-2019.When segmented by age, HIV was more prevalent among those aged 55-59 and 50-54, with the 50-54 age group witnessing the fastest decline in incidence rates. However, the fastest growth in prevalence rates was seen among the 60-64 and 65-69 age groups. The other STI incidence rate declined from 1990-1996, increased up to 2006, declined until 2015, and then saw a resurgence with accelerated growth thereafter. The prevalence rate showcased varied trends, with a notable increase in the past five years. The highest growth in incidence rate was among the 65-69 age group. We predict that the incidence rate of STI will increase in the future. Overall, despite the evident decline in incidence, mortality rates, and DALYs, the prevalence of HIV and other STI among the elderly is rising, and both demonstrated significant trend variations across different ages, genders, SDI regions, and nations. Comprehensive sexual health education, clinical care and adjustments in health service strategies based on the evolving trends of HIV and other STI among the elderly are paramount.