Private Decline Research Articles

Impact on Tuberculosis Notification During COVID-19 Pandemic in India: A Narrative Review.

Various programs are being weakened due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the tuberculosis (TB) program is no exception. TB case detection and notification is one of the worst affected areas. The study aims to assess India's TB reporting status during this pandemic and find possible solutions. Data analysis has been obtained from the India TB notification open-source database. Relevant literature research has been done to determine the measures based on various efforts made by different Indian states. There was a review of all TB notifications in 2019, 2020, and 2021 and a deficiency in notifications. Between 2019 and 2021, the country's TB notification ratio experienced a significant adaptation. In 2020, all states reported a decline in private and public TB case reports. In the nation, only a few private TB notifications were lost. In April 2020, there were the fewest notifications, which began to decline in February 2020. When states began implementing cutting-edge programs like the Integrated TB COVID Case Search and Active Case Finding (ACF), the notification trend improved in May 2020. The notifications of TB cases decreased significantly due to the present COVID-19 pandemic, which has consequences for the disease's stealthy spread throughout homes and communities. However, the situation may be better with an integrated strategy for managing TB-COVID cases.

EXPLORING THE IMPACT OF BANKING INDUSTRY REGULATIONS ON THE ECONOMY OF BRUNEI DARUSSALAM

This study uses a combination of archival and documentary research, as well as quantitative analysis, to uncover the evolution and impact of banking regulations on the economy of Brunei Darussalam. Available evidence suggests that throughout most of the 20th century, regulators adopted a laissez-faire approach with minimal regulations in the banking industry. However, financial crises tend to trigger regulatory reforms. Growing household indebtedness and bankruptcies were precursors to the introduction of major institutional changes, including the establishment of a centralized monetary and financial regulatory authority, Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam in 2011 (later renamed the Brunei Darussalam Central Bank (BDCB) in 2021), the Brunei Darussalam Protection Corporation in 2011, as well the Credit Bureau in 2012. Various financial regulations covering personal credit/financing, interest rates, credit card usage, and the Total Debt Service Ratio (TDSR) requirements have been introduced to promote financial stability and consumer financial protection. This has coincided with an evident decline in private and household indebtedness as well as non-performing loans/financing among banks. However, promoting financial stability and supporting economic growth can be a tricky balancing act for regulators to navigate. This study finds that the lack of local investment opportunities limits the possibility for surplus funds to circulate in the economy. In terms of policy recommendations, the role of financial regulations is discussed in the context of addressing global challenges such as inequality and climate change.

Clear Roads and Dirty Air? Indirect effects of reduced private traffic congestion on emissions from heavy traffic

Traffic and transportation are a major source of CO2 emissions. As the volume of heavy goods vehicle (HGV) transportation is difficult to reduce, many governments target private traffic. Next to the direct effect of fewer private vehicles on the roads, an indirect effect may be very important: The less congestion, the more fuel-efficient the remaining drivers may be able to drive because there would be less need to speed up, brake, and maneuver, for example while overtaking. On the other hand, clear roads may be tempting for drivers to speed and thus result in a negative impact of less private traffic. The direction and size of this indirect effect is difficult to measure for two reasons: First, we usually have no real-time driving data from heavy trucks. Second, traffic density usually does not vary to a large extent. We set out to assess the margins of this indirect effect using a unique data set from a large German logistics fleet. We measured truck drivers’ driving behavior as well as emissions from their trucks between January and May 2020. During that time, the COVID-19-related policy measures led to a significant decline in private traffic on highways. We find that less private traffic volume results in improved fuel-efficient driving behavior, resulting in reduced overall CO2 emissions. The effect is u-shaped; too little private traffic density leads to less fuel-efficient driving by the remaining heavy goods vehicle drivers. Moreover, removing the worst drivers from the roads has the same effect in terms of magnitude as reducing private traffic congestion to the medium-density optimum.

ACA Medicaid Expansion and Insurance Coverage Among New Mothers Living in Poverty.

Medicaid plays a critical role during the perinatal period, but pregnancy-related Medicaid eligibility only extends for 60 days post partum. In 2014, the Affordable Care Act's (ACA's) Medicaid expansions increased adult Medicaid eligibility to 138% of the federal poverty level in participating states, allowing eligible new mothers to remain covered after pregnancy-related coverage expires. We investigate the impact of ACA Medicaid expansions on insurance coverage among new mothers living in poverty. We define new mothers living in poverty as women ages 19 to 44 with incomes below the federal poverty level who report giving birth in the past 12 months. We use 2010-2017 American Community Survey data and a difference-in-differences approach using parental Medicaid-eligibility thresholds to estimate the effect of ACA Medicaid expansions on insurance coverage among poor new mothers. A 100-percentage-point increase in parental Medicaid-eligibility is associated with an 8.8-percentage-point decrease (P < .001) in uninsurance, a 13.2-percentage-point increase (P < .001) in Medicaid coverage, and a 4.4-percentage-point decrease in private or other coverage (P = .001) among poor new mothers. The average increase in Medicaid eligibility is associated with a 28% decrease in uninsurance, a 13% increase in Medicaid coverage, and an 18% decline in private or other insurance among poor new mothers in expansion states. However, in 2017, there were ∼142 000 remaining uninsured, poor new mothers. ACA Medicaid expansions are associated with increased Medicaid coverage and reduced uninsurance among poor new mothers. Opportunities remain for expansion and nonexpansion states to increase insurance coverage among new mothers living in poverty.

Private Twilight: Wither Private Universities in Kenya

It is a trying time for private universities in Kenya. Declining market share and attendant financial woes are ominous signs for the once vibrant sector. The article identifies the blurring of institutional distinctiveness, government policy promoting public growth and public sector resurgence through the privatization as factors precipitating the private decline.

Current Account Imbalances in the Southern Euro Area

The paper examines the causes, consequences, and potential cures of the large current account deficits in the Southern Euro Area (SEA). These were mostly driven by a decline in private saving rates. But it was the European Monetary Union and the Euro, which enabled these countries to maintain investment rates, and thus run larger current account deficits, by improving their access to the international pool of saving. The paper finds that the deficits in SEA in 2008 were larger than can be explained by fundamentals, though the situation varies substantially across countries. It also finds that although the global financial crisis has started to force some unwinding, the current account deficits are expected to remain high in the medium run, though again with substantial variation across countries. The paper argues these large external deficits pose risks to the economy and therefore matter, even in a currency union, and discusses some policy options to reduce them.

Current Account Imbalances in the Southern Euro Area

The paper examines the causes, consequences, and potential cures of the large current account deficits in the Southern Euro Area (SEA). These were mostly driven by a decline in private saving rates. But it was the European Monetary Union and the Euro, which enabled these countries to maintain investment rates, and thus run larger current account deficits, by improving their access to the international pool of saving. The paper finds that the deficits in SEA in 2008 were larger than can be explained by fundamentals, though the situation varies substantially across countries. It also finds that although the global financial crisis has started to force some unwinding, the current account deficits are expected to remain high in the medium run, though again with substantial variation across countries. The paper argues these large external deficits pose risks to the economy and therefore matter, even in a currency union, and discusses some policy options to reduce them.

Consumption, Wealth and Expected Stock Returns in Australia*

The present paper investigates the relationship between consumption, labour income and household wealth in Australia within the inter‐temporal consumption framework developed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001). We first test for a long‐run relationship among these series and then investigate whether private dissaving, measured as the deviation from the estimated relationship, has information content for future stock returns. We find that private dissaving has predictive power for quarterly returns on the ASX200 and for returns over long holding periods. The recent substantial decline in private dissaving suggests that consumers view the recent surge in non‐financial wealth as transitory and expect a correction.

The Decline in Private Saving Rates in the 1990s in OECD Countries

The substantial decline in private-sector saving rates observed in several OECD countries in the late 1990s coincided in several cases with a sharp increase in household financial net worth. This was seen by many observers as evidence that the strong rise in equity and residential property prices during the late 1990s had been treated by households as a permanent increase in wealth, leading to an unsustainable drop in saving and raising fears of an eventual negative wealth effect. Applying estimation techniques for systems of dynamic panel equations, this paper looks at basic determinants of private saving for a sample of 15 OECD countries and finds that the sharp decline in saving observed after 1995 can be largely explained, even in a post-sample fashion, by fundamentals other than financial wealth. Among the determinants, the rise in public-sector saving is found to have contributed the most to the decline in private saving between 1995 and 2000. Based on this investigation, there is little evidence that consumers had gone too far in responding to the stock market boom of the late 1990s, even in countries where private saving rates have fallen to historically low levels. On the other hand, the results suggest that a loosening of fiscal policy may have a limited stimulatory impact on private consumption...

The Decline in Private Saving Rates in the 1990s in OECD Countries: How Much Can Be Explained By Non-Wealth Determinants?

The substantial decline in private-sector saving rates observed in several OECD countries in the late 1990s coincided in several cases with a sharp increase in household financial net worth. This was seen by many observers as evidence that the strong rise in equity and residential property prices during the late 1990s had been treated by households as a permanent increase in wealth, leading to an unsustainable drop in saving and raising fears of an eventual negative wealth effect. Applying estimation techniques for systems of dynamic panel equations, this paper looks at basic determinants of private saving for a sample of 15 OECD countries and finds that the sharp decline in saving observed after 1995 can be largely explained, even in a post-sample fashion, by fundamentals other than financial wealth. Among the determinants, the rise in public-sector saving is found to have contributed the most to the decline in private saving between 1995 and 2000. Based on this investigation, there is thus little evidence that consumers have gone too far in responding to the stock market boom of the late 1990s, even in countries where private saving rates have fallen to historically low levels. On the other hand, the results suggest that a loosening of fiscal policy may have a limited stimulatory impact on private consumption.

Mexico after the debt crisis: is growth sustainable?

This paper argues that, in the case of Mexico's debt and debt service reduction agreed with London Club creditors, the ‘smoothening’ of the external transfer had a much stronger domestic impact than the reduction of debt/debt service per se. The financing of the expansion that ensued following the debt deal was facilitated by strong foreign capital inflows. However, along with the capital inflow, there was a sharp decline in private saving which raised concerns about the sustainability of the recovery. The paper argues that, even if domestic saving increases from the low level reached in 1992, the transition to a sustainable growth path is unlikely to be smooth, as the slowdown in consumption growth is likely to be contractionary. The net outcome will depend on how investment and net exports respond. The analysis of cyclical and structural factors of investment and net exports leads to a cautious optimism over the medium term.

The Determinants of U.S. Capital Imports

Since 1982 the United States has been a large net importer of capital. This condition, consistent with the standard explanation, appears to be primarily attributable to the large sustained federal budget deficit. In addition, net U.S. foreign investment in the 1980s appears to be more sensitive to changes in domestic demand, suggesting an increasing substitutability of domestic and foreign goods in the U.S. market. Changes in foreign economic conditions and policies in the 1980s do not appear to have had a substantial effect on the balance of capital flows. The article concludes that the large net U.S. importation of capital is not a policy problem but is the result of a policy problem, specifically, the decline in private saving and the large continuous federal budget deficit.

Budget Deficits and National Saving: Are Politicians Exogenous?

After years of relative abstinence, the United States has experimented with persistent budget deficits on a rather massive scale in the 1980s. Economists have generally been quite critical of this fiscal policy, though there are respectable minority views arguing that federal deficits are not so bad and quite possibly better than likely corrective measures. In this paper, I examine the evidence that the great deficit experiment is generating. I first look at the deficits themselves to see how high they really are, dealing with a number of measurement criticisms that have been raised from various quarters. I then discuss two critical responses to the deficits—that of private saving and that of public spending—to determine the impact of the deficits on national saving. A key issue that recurs throughout the discussion is whether the political behavior that leads to the deficits can be taken as exogenous: Are private households better viewed as responding to exogenous public sector deficits, or is something in the air causing both public deficits and a decline in private saving?

Current Account Dynamics: The Role of Real Shocks

This paper demonstrates how a full-blown optimizing model of the dynamics of the current account can be reduced to a small-scale collection of reduced-form relations capable of implementing a rich set of macro-economic simulations. Emphasizing the role of shocks to productivity, labor employment, world rate of interest, and tax revenues the analysis can account for movements in trade imbalances, and the decline in private saving and investment observed recently in developed open economies.