Decline In Net Primary Productivity Research Articles

Impacts of urbanization on ecosystem carbon cycle: a case study of land use change in Tianjin metropolitan area.

For the sustainable development of the city, in a study of Tianjin's rapid urbanization, we explore the complex interplay between land use change and the ecosystem carbon cycle from 2000 to 2020. Spatial analysis and profit-loss matrix calculations reveal contrasting ecological impacts: expansion of woodlands and grasslands enhances Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and reduces carbon emissions, while urban construction shows the opposite effect. Over 20 years, Tianjin's urban transformation led to a 16.91 GgC decline in NPP amidst a construction boom. However, post-2015 ecological policy shifts resulted in a significant net carbon uptake of 0.85 Gt, demonstrating the potential of policy interventions in mitigating environmental impacts of urbanization. This study underscores the importance of sustainable urban planning and ecological conservation strategies in highly urbanized settings.

Exploring the relationship between sea ice and phytoplankton growth in the Weddell Gyre using satellite and Argo float data

Abstract. Some of the highest rates of primary production across the Southern Ocean occur in the seasonal ice zone (SIZ), making this a prominent area of importance for both local ecosystems and the global carbon cycle. There, the annual advance and retreat of ice impacts light and nutrient availability, as well as the circulation and stratification, thereby imposing a dominant control on phytoplankton growth. In this study, the drivers of variability in phytoplankton growth between 2002–2020 in the Weddell Gyre SIZ were assessed using satellite net primary production (NPP) products alongside chlorophyll-a and particulate organic carbon (POC) data from autonomous biogeochemical floats. Although the highest daily rates of NPP are consistently observed in the continental shelf region (water depths shallower than 2000 m), the open-ocean region's larger size and longer ice-free season mean that it dominates biological carbon uptake within the Weddell Gyre, accounting for 93 %–96 % of the basin's total annual NPP. Variability in the summer maximum ice-free area is the strongest predictor of inter-annual variability in total NPP across the Weddell Gyre, with greater ice-free area resulting in greater annual NPP, explaining nearly half of the variance (R2=42 %). In the shelf region, the return of sea ice cover controls the end of the productive season. In the open ocean, however, both satellite NPP and float data show that a decline in NPP occurs before the end of the ice-free season (∼ 80 to 130 d after sea ice retreat). Evidence of concurrent increases in float-observed chlorophyll-a and POC suggest that later in the summer season additional factors such as micro-nutrient availability or top-down controls (e.g. grazing) could be limiting NPP. These results indicate that in a warmer and more ice-free Weddell Gyre, notwithstanding compensating changes in nutrient supply, NPP is likely to be enhanced only up to a certain limit of ice-free days.

Net Primary Production of Ecoregions Across North America in Response to Drought and Wildfires From 2015 to 2022

AbstractEcosystem models are valuable tools to make climate‐related assessments of change when ground‐based measurements of water and carbon fluxes are not adequate to realistically capture regional variability. The Carnegie‐Ames‐Stanford Approach (CASA) is one such model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover to estimate net primary production (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems. CASA model predictions from 2015 to 2022 revealed several notable high and low periods in growing season NPP totals in certain biomes. Both Temperate Broadleaf and Boreal Forest production shifted from relatively high average NPP values in 2015 through 2019 to lower levels in 2020, typically representing a loss of 10%–14% of growing season NPP flux. This rapid decline in growing season NPP from 2019 to 2020–2021 was also estimated for the Temperate Grasslands and Savanna, Temperate Conifer Forest, and Tundra biomes. In contrast to the climate patterns in the temperate biomes that developed into severe widespread drought in 2020 and 2021 due to low precipitation totals and extreme hot temperatures, growing season NPP in the Tundra biome was depressed in these same years by colder temperature induced drought conditions at the high latitudes of North America. Drought severity classes were closely associated with different levels of decline in NPP in most biomes. Trends in NPP in areas of the largest wildfires in North America that burned between 2012 and 2021 were examined to assess recovery of vegetation and the resiliency of ecosystems during extreme drought periods.

Wind farms increase land surface temperature and reduce vegetation productivity in the Inner Mongolia

Wind power has been developing rapidly as a key measure to mitigate human-driven global warming. The understanding of the development and impacts of wind farms on local climate and vegetation is of great importance for their rational use but is still limited. In this study, we combined remote sensing and on-site investigations to identify wind farm locations in Inner Mongolia and performed landscape pattern analyses using Fragstats. We explored the impacts of wind farms on land surface temperature (LST) and vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) between 1990 and 2020 by contrasting these metrics in wind farms with those in non-wind farm areas. The results showed that the area of wind farms increased rapidly from 1.2 km2 in 1990 to 10,755 km2 in 2020. Spatially, wind farms are mainly clustered in three aggregation areas in the center. Further, wind farms increased nighttime LST, with a mean value of 0.23 °C, but had minor impacts on the daytime LST. Moreover, wind farms caused a decline in NPP, especially over forest areas, with an average reduction of 12.37 GC/m². Given the impact of wind farms on LST and NPP, we suggest that the development of wind farms should fully consider their direct and potential impacts. This study provides scientific guidance on the spatial pattern of future wind farms.

Impact of ocean warming on net primary production in the northern Indian Ocean: role of aerosols and freshening of surface ocean.

Warming due to climate change stratifies the upper ocean and reduces nutrient input to the photic zone resulting in a decline in net primary production (NPP). On the other hand, climate change increases both anthropogenic aerosol input into the atmosphere and the river discharge due to the melting of glaciers on land resulting in enhanced nutrient inputs to the surface ocean and NPP. To examine the balance between these two processes, spatial and temporal variations in the rate of warming, NPP, aerosol optical depth (AOD), and sea surface salinity (SSS) were studied between 2001 and 2020 in the northern Indian Ocean. Strong heterogeneity in the warming of the sea surface was observed in the northern Indian Ocean with significant warming in the south of 12°N. Insignificant trends in warming were observed in the northern Arabian Sea (AS), north of 12°N, during winter and fall, and western Bay of Bengal (BoB) during winter, spring, and fall associated with higher levels of anthropogenic AOD (AAOD) due to a reduction in incoming solar radiation. The decline in NPP was observed in the south of 12°N in both AS and BoB and correlated inversely with SST suggesting that a weak supply of nutrients due to upper ocean stratification controlled NPP. Despite warming, the weak trends in NPP in the north of 12°N were associated with higher AAOD levels and their rate of increase suggesting that the deposition of nutrients from the aerosols seems to be compensating for declining trends due to warming. The decrease in sea surface salinity confirmed an increase in river discharge, and nutrient supply led to weak NPP trends in the northern BoB. This study suggests that the enhanced atmospheric aerosols and river discharge played a significant role in warming and changes in NPP in the northern Indian Ocean, and these parameters must be included in the ocean biogeochemical models for accurate prediction of possible changes in the upper ocean biogeochemistry in the future due to climate change.

Impact of climatic changes and anthropogenic activities on ecosystem net primary productivity in India during 2001–2019

Climate change and anthropogenic activities have altered the terrestrial ecosystem dynamics around the globe. Due to the complex ecosystem-atmosphere interactions at different scales, these impacts are difficult to quantify and are poorly understood, especially in developing countries with limited ground-based observations. This study analyzed the impact of climatic changes and anthropogenic activities on ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP) in India using remote sensing-based observations, correlation analysis, and Residual Trend analysis (RESTREND). Using different climate variables such as precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation, along with Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) and NPP maps, we first classified the ecosystems (ES) into two categories: natural ecosystems – influenced only by climate change (ESc), covering about 19.7% of the area, and human-influenced ecosystems – influenced by both climate change and anthropogenic activities (ESc+a), covering about 80.3% of the area. RESTREND analysis was performed on both ESc and ESc+a to analyze the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in NPP. The correlation analysis between NPP and climate variables suggested that precipitation was the dominant control of NPP in about 72% area, whereas temperature and solar radiation controlled NPP in Himalayan and forest-dominated regions, respectively. The human-influenced ecosystems (ESc+a) experienced an increasing trend in NPP, whereas natural ecosystems (ESc) experienced a decreasing trend, particularly in forest-dominated regions. Overall, NPP increased in the country during the study duration. The contributions of climatic changes and anthropogenic activities varied spatially and temporally. In general, climatic factors enhanced the NPP, whereas human activities contributed to a slight decline in NPP. These findings improve our understanding of how ecosystems in India are influenced by climate change and anthropogenic activities in recent decades. The results from this study will aid in identifying ecological hotspots and key drivers for better ecosystem management strategies.

Spatial and temporal variability of Net Primary Production on the Agulhas Bank, 1998–2018

Despite the importance of Agulhas Bank (AB) marine productivity in supporting South African coastal fisheries and shelf ecosystems, there are relatively few regional-scale assessments of its spatial and temporal variability, and most productivity studies have been limited in scale. Here we use satellite-derived Net Primary Production (NPP) rates calculated using the Vertically Generalized Production Model (VGPM) to examine the spatial and temporal dynamics of NPP over the 21-year satellite record (1998–2018) on the AB. In calculating VGPM NPP we used the OCCI Chlorophyll-a product, SST from Operational-Sea-Surface-Temperature-and-Sea-Ice-Analysis (OSTIA) and PAR from GlobColour level-3 mapped products as these represent the longest datasets that fit our extended study period. We examine spatial trends between the eastern and central AB, as well as three areas of the bank (around Port Alfred, the Tsitsikamma coast, and the ‘cold ridge’) that have been previously identified as contributing significantly to the overall productivity of the AB. The AB shows only a moderate degree of seasonality in NPP calculated from the VGPM, with NPP being highest in austral summer (1.7–1.8 g C m−2 d−1) and lowest in winter (0.9–1.0 g C m−2 d−1), and remains relatively high (>1 g C m−2 d−1) throughout the year, contrasting sharply with other shelf systems. Considered annually, NPP on the bank was 516 g C m−2 yr−1 (38 Mt C yr−1 when scaled to the total shelf area) which is higher than many other shelf systems though lower than the neighbouring Benguela system and is indicative of a moderately productive shelf system fuelled by perennial NPP. Comparing different sections of the AB from east to central bank, and including the three upwelling areas, highlighted that spatial differences in NPP were relatively limited; that these three upwelling areas made similar contributions to their relative proportion of the total shelf area, and that average rates of NPP are spatially similar across the bank, though notable high rates occur in some coastal upwelling areas. Interannual variability in NPP was relatively modest, varying between years by only ∼15% over the two decades assessed. Over the 21-year data set, there was a slight (∼0.26% yr−1) statistically-significant decline in calculated NPP over time for the AB as a whole, which, when examined on a pixel-by-pixel basis, indicated that most of the decline was on the central bank between 100 m and 200 m isobaths. In summer, an increase in NPP occurred on the EAB (26.5–28°E). In conclusion, the AB is a significant site of perennial moderate levels of NPP, varying little interannually and with only a slight decline in NPP over time. These factors lead to a stable environment in terms of ecosystem productivity so that the AB makes a significant contribution to the productivity of South African regional fisheries.

Assessing effects of drought on tree mortality and productivity in European forests across two decades: a conceptual framework and preliminary results

Forests are currently experiencing an unprecedented period of progressively drier growing conditions around the globe, which is threatening many forest ecosystem functions. Trees as long-living organisms are able to withstand drought periods. Our understanding on critical drought severity resulting in substantial decline in net primary productivity and/or eventually tree mortality is underdeveloped. A wide range of remote sensing products and ground observations, including information on productivity, tree vitality, climate, and soil moisture with high temporal and spatial resolution are now available. Linking these data sources could improve our understanding of the complex relationship between forest growth and drought. We introduce here a conceptual framework using satellite remotely sensed net primary productivity (MOD17A3 and MODIS EURO), ground observations of tree mortality (ICP level I survey data), soil moisture anomaly (Copernicus European Drought Observatory), and spatially-downscaled daily climate data for entire Europe. This unique analysis will enable us to test the influence of biotic and abiotic covariates such as tree age, stand history, and drought legacy using historic droughts for model development. This conceptual framework, as evident from the preliminary results shown here, can help anticipating the effects of future droughts and optimize global climate models considering drought effects.

Explicit silicate cycling in the Kiel Marine Biogeochemistry Model version 3 (KMBM3) embedded in the UVic ESCM version 2.9

Abstract. We describe and test a new model of biological marine silicate cycling, implemented in the Kiel Marine Biogeochemical Model version 3 (KMBM3), embedded in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) version 2.9. This new model adds diatoms, which are a key component of the biological carbon pump, to an existing ecosystem model. This new model combines previously published parameterizations of a diatom functional type, opal production and export with a novel, temperature-dependent dissolution scheme. Modelled steady-state biogeochemical rates, carbon and nutrient distributions are similar to those found in previous model versions. The new model performs well against independent ocean biogeochemical indicators and captures the large-scale features of the marine silica cycle to a degree comparable to similar Earth system models. Furthermore, it is computationally efficient, allowing both fully coupled, long-timescale transient simulations and “offline” transport matrix spinups. We assess the fully coupled model against modern ocean observations, the historical record starting from 1960 and a business-as-usual atmospheric CO2 forcing to the year 2300. The model simulates a global decline in net primary production (NPP) of 1.4 % having occurred since the 1960s, with the strongest declines in the tropics, northern midlatitudes and Southern Ocean. The simulated global decline in NPP reverses after the year 2100 (forced by the extended RCP8.5 CO2 concentration scenario), and NPP returns to 98 % of the pre-industrial rate by 2300. This recovery is dominated by increasing primary production in the Southern Ocean, mostly by calcifying phytoplankton. Large increases in calcifying phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean offset a decline in the low latitudes, producing a global net calcite export in 2300 that varies only slightly from pre-industrial rates. Diatom distribution moves southward in our simulations, following the receding Antarctic ice front, but diatoms are outcompeted by calcifiers across most of their pre-industrial Southern Ocean habitat. Global opal export production thus drops to 75 % of its pre-industrial value by 2300. Model nutrients such as phosphate, silicate and nitrate build up along the Southern Ocean particle export pathway, but dissolved iron (for which ocean sources are held constant) increases in the upper ocean. This different behaviour of iron is attributed to a reduction of low-latitude NPP (and consequently, a reduction in both uptake and export and particle, including calcite scavenging), an increase in seawater temperatures (raising the solubility of particulate iron) and stratification that “traps” the iron near the surface. These results are meant to serve as a baseline for sensitivity assessments to be undertaken with this model in the future.

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of net primary productivity and response to climate change in the mountain regions of southwest China

Monitoring changes in the net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation and its response to climatic changes is integral to gain insight into the carbon cycle mechanism and facilitate human well-being. Nonetheless, past studies lacked a month-scaled exploration and largely ignored spatial heterogeneity of the time lag effect. In this study, we focused on the Hengduan Mountain region situated in southwest China and analyzed the variation of NPP and its main driving mechanisms during 2000–2016. Our results revealed that: (1) The annual NPP signified a slightly increasing trend. On the grid-scale, the variation region of NPP was mainly characterized by increasing trends in most of the growth stages, except for July. (2) The response of NPP to climate change presented obvious spatial heterogeneity and complexity. The increasing NPP of the growing season in the northeast part and areas around Xichang can be attributed to temperature rising, while the increase of temperature in the central valleys led to a decline in NPP. Furthermore, decreasing precipitation led to the decrease in NPP in the western valleys. Thus, adequate water should be provided for the vegetation in western valley, and drought-tolerant plants should be choice in the central valley. (3) Changes in NPP were more influenced by temperature than precipitation, which was more evident on monthly scale, especially during April and May, and for the southeast and northeast part in June and August. (4) The lag time of NPP variation in relation to temperature changes was shorter than that of precipitation in most growth stages, indicating that NPP is more sensitive to temperature. In the colder region or growth stages, the lagged time of the response of NPP to temperature was shorter, which was more obvious on the monthly scale. This research will have important implications for ecosystem management.

Decline in net primary productivity caused by severe droughts: evidence from the Pearl River basin in China

AbstractUnderstanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought events and their impacts on terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) is crucial for drought mitigation and environmental protection. This study, by taking the Pearl River basin as the case region, investigated drought duration, severity, intensity, affected area, and centroids during 1960–2015 based on the Standardized Evapotranspiration Deficit Index and three-dimensional clustering algorithm and then revealed how these drought characteristics have affected NPP. Results showed that there were altogether 32 severe drought events lasting at least 3 months in the basin, with half lasting longer than 6 months. The total NPP loss significantly correlated with drought severity and intensity. Most drought events caused a reduction in NPP across more than half of the drought-affected area; specifically, the February–December drought in 2011 has cut NPP by 31.85 Tg C, accounting for 11.7% of the regional annual mean NPP, while the September 2009–September 2010 drought caused a decrease of 20.26 Tg C in NPP. Our research improves the insight into the relationship between NPP and drought, which helps decision-makers manage droughts and provides guidance for drought-related studies across other regions.

Oceanic primary production decline halved in eddy-resolving simulations of global warming

Abstract. The decline in ocean primary production is one of the most alarming consequences of anthropogenic climate change. This decline could indeed lead to a decrease in marine biomass and fish catch, as highlighted by recent policy-relevant reports. Because of computational constraints, current Earth system models used to project ocean primary production under global warming scenarios have to parameterize flows occurring below the resolution of their computational grid (typically 1∘). To overcome these computational constraints, we use an ocean biogeochemical model in an idealized configuration representing a mid-latitude double-gyre circulation and perform global warming simulations under an increasing horizontal resolution (from 1 to 1/27∘) and under a large range of parameter values for the eddy parameterization employed in the coarse-resolution configuration. In line with projections from Earth system models, all our simulations project a marked decline in net primary production in response to the global warming forcing. Whereas this decline is only weakly sensitive to the eddy parameters in the eddy-parameterized coarse 1∘ resolution simulations, the simulated decline in primary production in the subpolar gyre is halved at the finest eddy-resolving resolution (−12 % at 1/27∘ vs. −26 % at 1∘) at the end of the 70-year-long global warming simulations. This difference stems from the high sensitivity of the sub-surface nutrient transport to model resolution. Although being only one piece of a much broader and more complicated response of the ocean to climate change, our results call for improved representation of the role of eddies in nutrient transport below the seasonal mixed layer to better constrain the future evolution of marine biomass and fish catch potential.

Toward Sustainable Revegetation in the Loess Plateau Using Coupled Water and Carbon Management

The “Grain-for-Green” project on the Loess Plateau is the largest revegetation program in the world. However, revegetation-induced land use changes can influence both water and carbon cycles, and the diverse consequences were not well understood. Therefore, the reasonability and sustainability of revegetation measures are in question. This study quantifies the impacts of revegetation-induced land use conversions on the water and carbon cycles in a typical watershed on the Loess Plateau and identifies suitable areas where revegetation of forest or grassland could benefit both soil and water conservation and carbon sequestration. We used a coupled hydro-biogeochemical model to simulate the changes of a few key components in terms of water and carbon by designing a variety of hypothetical land use conversion scenarios derived from revegetation policy. Compared to the baseline condition (land use in 2000), both sediment yield and water yield decreased substantially when replacing steep cropland with forest or grassland. Converting cropland with slopes larger than 25°, 15°, and 6° to forest (CTF) would enhance the carbon sequestration with a negligible negative effect on soil water content, while replacing cropland with grassland (CTG) would result in a decline in net primary production but with a substantial increase in soil water content (3.8%–14.9%). Compared to the baseline, the soil organic carbon would increase by 0.9%–3.2% in CTF and keep relatively stable in CTG. Through testing a variety of hypothetical revegetation scenarios, we identified potential priority areas for CTF and CTG, where revegetation may be appropriate and potentially beneficial to conserving soil and water and enhancing carbon sequestration. Our study highlights the challenges in future water and carbon coupling management under revegetation policy, and our quantitative results and identification of potential areas for revegetation could provide information to policy makers for seeking optimal management on the Loess Plateau.

Decadal variations of sea surface temperature in the eastern Arabian Sea and its impacts on the net primary productivity

Ten-year satellite derived data (January 2007 to December 2016) were used to investigate the variability of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), sea surface temperature (SST), net primary production (NPP) in the eastern Arabian Sea (AS). This study is aimed to show the coupling of physical and biological processes to understand how temporal, annual and inter-annual variations occur and the forcing mechanisms behind these variations in the ocean environments. This work is linked to Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, which frequently co-occur and drives inter-annual changes within the AS. Vertically Generalized Production Model was used to estimate NPP using chl-a, Photosynthetically Available Radiation, euphotic depth, and maximum photosynthetic rate from SST. The relationship between NPP and SST showed change in the pattern over the study period. The NPP in the AS is characterized by an unusual decline during El Nino events. AS is more productive during summer monsoon (June–September) due to coastal upwelling, wind driven mixing and lateral advection processes. There was decline in NPP after 2014 and this trend continued in the following years. The present investigation revealed that the strong El Nino condition was observed in 2015 and productivity of AS declined by ~ 19%, while SST increased by ~ 2% from an overall average of 2007–2016. Increased SST and low productivity could result in low fish catch in AS. Increasing trend in SST could be attributed to the extreme events like cyclones occurring along the west coast of India.

Climate change weakens the positive effect of human activities on karst vegetation productivity restoration in southern China

Abstract China has conducted large-scale eco-afforestation projects in karst areas for mitigating rocky desertification in recent decades. However, the benefits of karst vegetation productivity restoration and the contributions of influencing factors are unclear. We analyzed the impacts of climate change (CC) and human activity (HA) on vegetation productivity change based on the net primary productivity (NPP) by using the partial derivatives and designing eight different scenarios. Results demonstrated that the average NPP over the entire vegetation-covered karst area exhibited an unremarkable increasing trend (0.92 g C m−2 yr−1) and a major decline in NPP was detected in the areas where NDVI increased from 2000 to 2015 (0.44 million km2, 29.07%). Solar radiation (−0.91 g C m−2 yr−1) was the preponderant climatic factors exhibiting negative contribution to NPP changes. A significant positive contribution was caused by HA (1.53 g C m−2 yr−1) on NPP variations, while a negative contribution was induced by CC (−0.61 g C m−2 yr−1). CC and HA showed the more similar contribution proportion to NPP increasing (51.94% vs 48.06%), but with great difference (68.43% vs 31.57%) for NPP decreasing. 39.83% of the areas involved in NPP decreasing was attributed to the accelerating consumption of autotrophic respiration while the rest (60.17%) was contributed by rapid decrease of gross primary productivity, respectively. In southern karst area, HA showed a positive impact (59.07%) on NPP increasing. However, the negative contribution from CC (70.72%) due to the rapid and constant decline of solar radiation completely counteracted this, leading to a greater NPP decrease. This study stresses the importance of negative effect from CC on karst vegetation productivity change and provides location guidance for further implementation of ecological protection projects in southern China.

Drivers of short-term variability in phytoplankton production in an embayment of the southern Benguela upwelling system

St Helena Bay (SHB), a retention zone in the southern Benguela upwelling system, supports 40–50% of the region's primary productivity. It also experiences harmful algal blooms (HABs) and hypoxic conditions that are difficult to predict given the high sub-seasonal variability. To better understand this variability, net primary production (NPP), nitrate and ammonium uptake, and phytoplankton community composition were monitored for ten days in SHB during summer, the season of enhanced upwelling. A period of active upwelling (days 1–5) was followed by one of relaxation (days 6–10). During upwelling, the mixed layer was deeper than the euphotic zone and phytoplankton were light-limited, evidenced by high ambient nitrate concentrations and low rates of NPP and nitrate uptake. During relaxation, stratification increased, restricting phytoplankton production to a shallow euphotic zone in which nitrate was exhausted after three days; the subsequent decline in NPP and nitrate uptake rates confirm that nutrient availability rapidly succeeded light as the dominant control on productivity. Nanophytoplankton (mainly the small diatoms, Chaetoceros spp. and Skeletonema costatum) dominated the biomass, NPP, and nitrate uptake throughout the experiment. We attribute this to their ability to respond quickly to newly-upwelled nitrate and to sustain elevated nitrate uptake rates for longer than pico- and microphytoplankton. They may also engage in luxury nitrate uptake, storing nitrate intracellularly under high-nutrient conditions and assimilating it later when nutrients are depleted. Additionally, Chaetoceros spp. and S. costatum are chain-formers, benefitting from the advantages of being small (i.e., as individual cells) and large (i.e., when aggregated into chains). A weakening of surface stratification late in the experiment may have prevented dinoflagellates, some of which are HAB species, from succeeding the diatoms. One implication of this is that understanding the rapid cycling between light and nutrient limitation of SHB phytoplankton, induced by an actively-upwelling versus stratified water column, may improve our capacity to anticipate HABs and the associated hypoxic events.

Industrial-era decline in subarctic Atlantic productivity.

Marine phytoplankton have a crucial role in the modulation of marine-based food webs1, fishery yields2 and the global drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide3. However, owing to sparse measurements before satellite monitoring in the twenty-first century, the long-term response of planktonic stocks to climate forcing is unknown. Here, using a continuous, multi-century record of subarctic Atlantic marine productivity, we show that a marked 10±7% decline in net primary productivity has occurred across this highly productive ocean basin over the past two centuries. We support this conclusion by the application of a marine-productivity proxy, established using the signal of the planktonic-derived aerosol methanesulfonic acid, which is commonly identified across an array of Greenlandic ice cores. Using contemporaneous satellite-era observations, we demonstrate the use of this signal as a robust and high-resolution proxy for pastvariations in spatially integrated marine productivity. We show that the initiation of declining subarctic Atlantic productivity broadly coincides with the onset of Arctic surface warming4, and that productivity strongly covaries with regional sea-surface temperatures and basin-wide gyre circulation strength over recent decades. Taken together, our results suggest that the decline in industrial-era productivity may be evidence of the predicted5 collapse of northern Atlantic planktonic stocks in response to a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation6-8. Continued weakening of this Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, as projected for the twenty-first century9,10, may therefore result in further productivity declines across this globally relevant region.

Ecophysiology of Layered Macroalgal Assemblages: Importance of Subcanopy Species Biodiversity in Buffering Primary Production

Shallow coastal rocky reefs worldwide have faced large-scale loss of biodiversity, yet little is known about the contributions of highly diverse multi-layered autotrophic species to ecosystem function over long periods. In this study we tested the role of functional diversity on net primary productivity (NPP) of macroalgal assemblages in one-off, and multi-year experiments. We removed canopy (perennial fucoid), mid-canopy and basal algae (turfing and encrusting algae) in intertidal assemblages and used in situ photorespirometry to measure recovery of NPP over 2 years. Experimental removal of the canopy caused a >50% decline in NPP, which remained significantly lower than undisturbed assemblages for up to 24 months. Removal of midcanopy and basal algae reduced NPP by >25%, but converged with controls after just 6-12 months. Canopy loss greatly reduced NPP for long periods and productivity began recovering only after the recruitment of the canopy-forming species. Subcanopy species composition varied with experimental disturbance treatment and through time, but consistently contributed to total assemblage NPP. High irradiance in the shallow intertidal zone may be vital to a maximizing the efficiency of light harvesting, and the spatial and temporal variations in species composition may play a critical role in buffering carbon fixation of macroalgal assemblages.

Moderate Disturbance Has Similar Effects on Production Regardless of Site Quality and Composition

Moderate severity disturbances, which only kill a subset of canopy trees (e.g., via insects, pathogens, and windthrow), are increasingly widespread in North America, and can alter forest structure and production. Whether the net primary production (NPP) of forest stands differing in pre-disturbance site quality and composition respond similarly to moderate severity disturbance, however, is unknown, but critical to understanding the disturbance response dynamics of patchy landscapes. We experimentally disturbed three, 2-ha stands varying in pre-disturbance primary production and community composition, temporarily reducing live stand basal area by 38% to 66% through the stem girdling of all mature early successional aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx. and Populus grandidentata Michx.) and birch (Betula papyrifera Marshall). Disturbance significantly altered stand-scale physical and biological structure and prompted a similar decade-long pattern of wood NPP decline and recovery. All stands exhibited an initial reduction in wood NPP, followed by a recovery period and eventual return to pre-disturbance levels within eight years, with the most productive stand exhibiting an increase in primary production following recovery. Following wood NPP recovery, more biologically diverse forest canopies with higher leaf area indexes intercepted more light, and, consequently, had higher rates of wood NPP. We conclude that, despite substantial pre-disturbance differences in productivity and community composition, relative wood NPP recovery patterns can be similar, though long-term post-recovery primary production may trend higher in more productive and compositionally diverse stands. We suggest that improved mechanistic understanding of different forest ecosystems’ responses to disturbances remains critical to informing management decisions across diverse landscape mosaics.

Human migration, climate variability, and land degradation: hotspots of socio-ecological pressure in Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, human migration is known to be influenced by environmental change—and vice versa. Thus, degradation of environmental conditions can contribute to out-migration, and in-migration can cause environmental changes at the immigrants’ destination. The aim of our study was to systematically identify regions in which socio-ecological pressures can arise from high population densities, migration, land degradation, and/or rainfall variability. We combined population census data at the district level with high-resolution remote sensing data regarding rainfall variability, land degradation, and land cover. We identified districts in which high population density is coupled with both a steep decline in net primary production (NPP) and large precipitation variability. The affected regions are mainly cropping regions located in the northern highlands and in the central part of the Great Rift Valley. We consider these regions to be particularly prone to environmental changes; moreover, high population density places additional stress on local natural resources. Next, we identified districts in which high in-migration is coupled with both a strong decline in NPP and low rainfall variability, proposing that land degradation in these regions is likely to have resulted from human activity rather than climatic factors. The affected regions include parts of the Awash Valley, regions surrounding Lake Tana, and the mountainous regions between Addis Ababa, Bedele, and Jima. We found these hotspots of in-migration and land degradation are dominantly grasslands regions, which have been characterized by significant cropland expansion during the period studied. Whereas exploring causal relationships between migration, environmental change, and land cover change is beyond the scope of our study, we have pinpointed regions where these processes coincide. Our findings suggest that at the regional scale, deteriorating environmental conditions can be both the cause and the effect of migration.