Decline In Economic Growth Research Articles

Analisis Pengaruh Ekspor dan Impor Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Pendekatan Akuntansi Arus Dana yang Dimediasi Foreign Direct Investment di Indonesia Tahun 2019-2021

The purpose of this study was to determine and examine the effect of exports and imports before, during, and after the covid-19 outbreak on economic growth with an accounting approach to foreign direct investment mediated fund flows in indonesia. Quantitative approach with PLS analysis technique is used in this study. Secondary Data obtained from various official websites were used in this study. This study provides the results that exports and imports have a positive and significant influence on economic growth with the approach of accounting for the flow of funds mediated by foreign direct investment in Indonesia. This implies that exports and imports have an important role in economic growth approach to accounting for the flow of funds. Foreign direct investment plays an active role in mediating the relationship between exports and imports to economic growth. The declining value of exports, imports, and foreign direct investment during the pandemic also affected the decline in economic growth in Indonesia. Export activity needs to be increased so that economic growth also increases. Likewise with import activities, although imports are excessive trade balance deficit, imports also have some positive influence on economic growth such as by importing can meet domestic needs and open opportunities to attract investors to invest. For this reason, imports need to be controlled so that economic growth continues to increase.

The New Strategy to Improve Indonesia's National Economic Growth

Post-order new economic growth has decreased. The source of the decline in economic growth is that state revenues in the oil and gas sector have decreased. Indonesia needs more consistent high economic growth to accelerate Indonesia's leap to become a high-income country. In this situation Thus, there are several challenges so that Indonesia can achieve growth targets and, at the same time maintain growth The challenges that must be faced​ in the form of quality sources of Power are human beings who still have valued investment in resources Power life and wealth intellectuals who are still low, plus with Posture exports that have not been worth economy high. With this, an appropriate policy strategy is needed for the three things above to become locomotives of future economic growth. Although Indonesia needs high economic growth, several boundaries must be adhered to, namely, the nature of economic growth must be inclusive, so as not to widen the gap in social inequality. A growth economy must be supported by a diversity of rich life and, at the same time intended to guard sustainability naturally as a source of main Continuity of Development and Justice between generations.

Demystifying China’s economic growth decline: reform of official promotion aimed at sustainable development

Demystifying China’s economic growth decline: reform of official promotion aimed at sustainable development

The Job Loss Insurance Program as a Government Policy Response to Address the Impact of National Economic Fluctuations and Layoffs

Fluctuations in the national economy caused by several things, such as a decline in economic growth, the global economic crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic, often lead to layoffs (PHK). Layoffs have various negative impacts on life, such as depression, mental health, financial problems, social relationships, decreased physical health, and impacts on careers. The JKP program is one of the policies to overcome these negative impacts. The JKP program is designed to provide financial support, job training, and access to labor market information for laid-off workers, with the aim of reducing the social and economic impact of layoffs and helping workers return to the labor market with better skills. The aim of this research is to explain the JKP program as a response to government policy in overcoming the negative impacts of layoffs. This research uses a qualitative and quantitative descriptive approach. The implementation of the JKP program has shown positive results, such as increasing people's purchasing power and contributing to economic recovery. However, there are several challenges in its implementation, including infrastructure, technical problems and uneven socialization. Periodic program evaluation is needed to address this problem and ensure the long-term effectiveness of the JKP program. This article also emphasizes the importance of collaboration between government and industry in improving the relevance and quality of vocational training. It is hoped that the JKP program can continue to adapt and improve protection for workers in Indonesia, thereby providing better economic and social stability

On the fiscal deficit and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: A new evidence from system GMM.

Using a two-step approach GMM, this study examines the short- and long-term effects of fiscal deficit on the economic growth of 42 Sub-Saharan African nations between 2011 and 2021. The World Development Index, the most reliable source, is where the panel data is taken from. Using the Levin-Lin-Chu and Hadri LM tests for unit root, it was determined that there is no risk of a random walk in the data. The study's findings indicate that while the fiscal deficit has short-term, positive, and significant benefits on the economic growth of SSA countries, it has long-term, negative repercussions. According to the system GMM's results, an increase in the fiscal deficit of SSA countries is linked to a short-term increase in economic growth of 0.036 percent, while an increase in the fiscal deficit of one percentage point is linked to a long-term decline in economic growth of SSA countries of 0.013 percent, holding all other factors constant. The study's findings also showed that the budget deficit has a larger positive short-run coefficient than a negative long-run coefficient. The study also revealed that while real effective exchange rates and inflation short-term hinder economic growth, gross fixed capital creation and real interest rates are the primary drivers of economic expansion. Long-term economic growth in the SSA countries is also found to be positively and significantly impacted by gross fixed capital formation. According to the study, SSA nations should manage their fiscal deficits and, in the long run, provide more funds for gross fixed capital development.

Sejarah Perkembangan Kebijakan Ekonomi Pada Masa Orde Baru dan Pengaruh Krisis Moneter terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia

The history of economic policy development during the New Order era in Indonesia reflects the political and economic dynamics that shaped the nation's development trajectory. Initially, the New Order government adopted a centralized and authoritarian economic development model, emphasizing industrialization and modernization. While these programs spurred economic growth, they also led to social inequality and political tensions. The late 1990s currency crisis, particularly the 1997 Asian financial crisis, significantly destabilized Indonesia's economy. Economic policies of the New Order era, characterized by dependence on foreign debt and imprudent monetary practices, rendered Indonesia susceptible to global financial market fluctuations. The impact of the crisis was profound, manifesting in a sharp decline in economic growth, a currency crisis, and a banking crisis, which compelled the government to implement urgent economic reforms. These reforms included financial sector restructuring, economic deregulation, and enhanced transparency in public financial management. This study provides an in-depth analysis of the New Order's economic policies and the subsequent impact of the currency crisis on Indonesia's economy.

Kondisi perekonomian indonesia pasca covid 19

The Covid-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the Indonesian economy, causing a decline in economic growth, increasing poverty levels and pressure on the business sector. This article presents an analysis of the condition of the Indonesian economy after Covid-19, economic recovery, the role of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), global news, and international cooperation through the G20 forum. Even though there are signs of improvement in Indonesia's economic prospects, challenges remain, especially regarding the recovery of MSMEs which have been badly affected. It is hoped that continued support from the government, structural reforms and international cooperation will help Indonesia achieve a sustainable and inclusive economic recovery in the future.

Use of SWOT analysis to select feasible businesses as the mainstay business of BUMDes and MSMEs

COVID-19 pandemic, which lasted from 2020 to 2022, has affected the global economy. Activity restrictions had hampered the progress of various business sectors. As a result, there was a decline in economic growth globally. There was even an economic contraction of -13.7% in 2020 and many businesses experienced either setbacks or bankruptcies. Indonesia’s government made various recovery efforts, such as business assistance through village-owned enterprises (BUMDes) activities and capital assistance for MSMEs in the form of people’s business credit (Kredit Usaha Rakyat/KUR). Various trainings and assistance were conducted, but these activities focused more on reporting and administration of funds. The establishment of BUMDes mainly aims to improve the villages’ economy. The selection of BUMDes' mainstay business is highly important to realize the smooth running of the business chosen. For this reason, it is necessary to conduct training on how to select of the mainstay business and calculate the feasibility of the business chosen to be developed so that BUMDes and MSME actors can manage and develop their business properly. The selection can use SWOT analysis, namely by analyzing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of the potential business options. In this community services activity, BUMDes and MSME training was held in Bogorejo Village, Pesawaran Regency, Lampung Province. The results of SWOT analysis reveal that the feasible business options are digital financial services (BRI-Link), agricultural trading (waserda), and waste collection and waste bank. Waserda business aims to help market the local community's products. Waste management business economically generates small profits, but has long-term positive effects, both environmentally and socially. Meanwhile, tourism park and savings and loan are considered not feasible in the long-term, as these businesses are susceptible to bottlenecks and large losses so that they must be managed very carefully.

Dynamic hysteresis effects

We study how the output gap affects potential output over time—i.e., the dynamic hysteresis effect. To do so, we introduce novel unobserved components (UC) models that consider hysteresis as a sequence of lagged effects, thus separating the long-run recession-induced adverse effects from other trend-cycle interactions. The proposed models nest several existing UC models in the literature and accommodate two key characteristics of output dynamics: non-neutrality in the long-run and time-to-build effects. Using Bayesian estimation methods, we find robust evidence supporting the presence of hysteresis effects after the 1970s, with the negative long-run effect of the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 recessions robustly identified. Via Bayesian model averaging, we provide precise and intuitive output gap estimates that highlight the relationship between business cycle fluctuations and the decline in economic growth. Our findings indicate that output trend-cycle decompositions that do not consider hysteresis effects can alter stabilization policy trade-offs.

The Geography of EU Discontent and the Regional Development Trap

While in recent times many regions have flourished, many others are stuck—or are at risk of becoming stuck—in a development trap. Such regions experience decline in economic growth, employment, and productivity relative to their neighbors and to their own past trajectories. Prolonged periods in development traps are leading to political dissatisfaction and unrest. Such discontent is often translated into support for antisystem parties at the ballot box. In this article we study the link between the risk, intensity, and duration of regional development traps and the rise of discontent in the European Union (EU)—proxied by the support for Eurosceptic parties in national elections between 2013 and 2022—using an econometric analysis at a regional level. The results highlight the strong connection between being stuck in a development trap, often in middle- or high-income regions, and support for Eurosceptic parties. They also suggest that the longer the period of stagnation, the stronger the support for parties opposed to European integration. This relationship remains robust whether considering only the most extreme Eurosceptic parties or including parties with more moderate levels of Euroscepticism.

Financial Distress During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Altman and Springate Model Prediction

Background: The retail trade industry has experienced a sharp decline in economic growth during the COVID-19 pandemic. Regulation of social distancing, restrictions on retail shop operating hours, and disruption of online shopping behavior contribute to worsen the financial performance of retail trade companies. </p> <p> Purpose: The purpose of this research is to analyze the prediction of financial distress of retail trade companies. This research chose to use the Altman and Springate Model since both of them are the most accurate and conservative models to predict. </p> <p> Research Methodology: The financial distress analysis technique used is Altman and Springate Model. The calculation of the Altman and Springate Score is based on an equation formula for data in the period before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Altman’s Score are grouped in the Safe Zone, Grey Area, and Financial Distress; while the Springate’s Score are grouped in the Safe Zone and Financial Distress categories. </p> <p> Findings: Altman Model Analysis stated that most of the companies experienced a decreased scores, the company’s financial performance during COVID-19 pandemic was predicted financial distress and belong to the Grey Zone category than before COVID-19 pandemic. Springate Model Analysis states that all companies have decreased scores, and the company’s financial performance during COVID-19 pandemic is predicted financial distress than before COVID-19 pandemic. Springate Model revealed a more conservative indicator, but both models stated there were still exist several companies in the Safe Zone category to continue their business. </p> <p> Research limitations: The limitations of this study are only using Altman and Springate Model. The object of this research is the retail trade industry only, then future research may be able to expand the analyzed industry in the new normal conditions. </p> <p> Originality/value: The originality of this research is focused on the retail trade companies as the most affected industry by COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, this research analyzes financial distress based on Altman Z-Score and Springate Model as the most powerful model to predict.

Revisiting the debt–growth nexus in sub-Saharan Africa: fresh evidence from panel nonlinear ARDL approach

PurposeWhile some countries have used debt to drive economic growth, the asymmetric effect on sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries has received little attention in the empirical literature. This paper therefore examines the asymmetric effect of external debts on economic growth.Design/methodology/approachThe panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach was employed in the study for 29 sub-Saharan African countries from 1990 to 2021. The cross-sectional dependence test was used to determine the presence of cross-sectional dependence, while the second-generation panel unit root tests was used to examine the unit-root properties.FindingsThe empirical results show that external debt has an asymmetric effect on economic growth in both the short and long run. In the long run, a positive shock in external debts of 1% triggers an upturn in economic growth by 0.216% while a negative shock triggers 0.354% decline in economic growth. This implies that the negative shock of external debts has a much stronger impact on economic growth than the positive shock. In the short run, a positive shock in external debts by 1% triggers a decline in economic growth by 0.641%, while a negative shock of 1% triggers a fall in economic growth of 0.170%.Originality/valueThe paper used the NARDL model to examine the asymmetric impact of external debt on the economic growth of SSA countries, which has not been extensively studied. It is recommended that governments in the selected countries in sub-Saharan Africa should drive economic growth by promoting domestic revenue mobilization since external debts impede economic growth.

Digital financial inclusion in the context of financial development: Environmental destruction or the driving force for technological advancement

This study employs the panel vector autoregression model to investigate how digital financial inclusion (DFI), technological advancement, environmental conditions, and economic growth are interconnected in 16 low financial development countries (LFDCs) and 29 high financial development countries (HFDCs) from 2015 to 2020. The results of the impulse response function reveal that in LFDCs, DFI enhances environmental quality while promoting technological progress. However, this improvement in environmental quality results in a decline in economic growth in these countries. In HFDCs, the promotion of DFI results in economic growth; however, it is accompanied by a decrease in environmental quality. Furthermore, the results of variance decomposition demonstrate that the interconnection among DFI, economic growth, environmental quality, and technological progress is more closely related in LFDCs than in HFDCs. Based on the findings, we recommend relevant policy implications for the respective country groups.

On the government revenue on economic growth of Sub-Saharan Africa: Does institutional quality matter?

As studies report inconclusive results, the linkage between government revenue and economic growth remains a topic of debate in economic literature. This study investigates the effect of government revenue on the economic growth of Sub-Saharan African countries with the main objective of whether institutional quality matters. The panel data for 43 SSA countries were obtained from dependable data sources: World Development Indicator and Heritage Economic Freedom Index for the period of 2012–2022. The result from system GMM estimation reveals that government revenue adversely affects economic growth while institutional quality positively enhances economic growth before interacting with each other. However, the interactive coefficient of government revenue and economic growth positively affected the real GDP growth rate of SSA countries over the study periods. Precisely, before interacting with institutional quality, a percentage change in government revenue, keeping all other things constant, leads to a 0.0866% decline in economic growth while it marks a 0.2329% upsurge in economic growth in the presence of institutional quality. The result of the study further revealed that government revenue promotes the economic growth of the region when combined with institutional quality. On the other hand, foreign direct investment and openness to trade were the key sources of economic growth whereas the population growth rate adversely impacted economic growth in SSA countries during the study period under consideration. The policy implication of the study is that SSA needs to strengthen government revenue management. Further, the finding of the study implies that SSA countries need to improve institutional quality through promoting efficiency of the regulatory quality and the size of the SSA governments. In addition to this, the fast real GDP growth rate of SSA countries demands improved institutional quality indicators such as the rule of law and extended access to the open market.

Modeling Poverty Incidence and Macroeconomic Volatility in Nigeria

In light of the exacerbation of economic challenges resulting from heightened inflation and the recent cessation of fuel subsidies, there has been a discernible escalation in the poverty rate across emerging economies globally, with particular emphasis on the Nigerian context. This research endeavors to scrutinize the intricate interconnection between the poverty rate and pertinent macroeconomic volatility indices, encompassing inflation, Gross National Income (GNI), unemployment, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) within the Nigerian framework. Noteworthy in its contribution, this study addresses a notable lacuna by incorporating indices hitherto overlooked in antecedent research. Utilizing secondary data spanning the temporal continuum from 1990 to 2022, a meticulous analysis ensued. The knit root test was executed to rectify the presence of unit roots that might engender spurious findings. Subsequently, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model of order (1, 1, 1, 1, 0) was employed. The findings divulge a discernible short-term and long-term nexus between poverty incidence and the identified macroeconomic volatility indices in Nigeria. The model further posits that an elevated poverty incidence precipitates a decline in economic growth in both temporal horizons, underscoring the adverse effects. Conversely, a heightened GNI manifests as a catalyst for enhanced economic growth in Nigeria. Consequently, this underscores the imperative for governmental intervention in productive endeavors aimed at augmenting Nigeria's GNI, thereby fostering economic growth, mitigating unemployment, and ultimately alleviating the elevated poverty rates pervasive in the nation

Investigates the Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth in Cameroon

Every nation requires a certain amount of investment to reach a particular degree of growth. Investment and economic growth are topics of intense debate in developing countries today. This study investigates the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Cameroon. Using the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation technique, the data covered a period from 1985 to 2022 collected from the world development indicators (WDI). The finding reveals that there is a positive and significant effect between foreign direct investment (FDI) and Cameroonian GDP; this implies that a unit increase in FDI leads to increased economic growth. A negative correlation has been observed between economic growth and inflation, suggesting that a rise in inflation generally leads to a decline in economic growth. Furthermore, trade openness (TOP) and economic growth have a statistically significant positive association, suggesting that Cameroon's economic growth may rise due to greater global trade involvement. These findings have important policy implications. The Cameroonian government should improve infrastructure, guarantee political stability, and strengthen regulatory frameworks in order to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and capitalize on its benefits. Since boosting international trade further spur economic growth, initiatives to encourage trade openness should also be given top priority. Trade agreements, tariff reductions, and the encouragement of export-oriented sectors.

THE EFFECT OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, PROVINCIAL MINIMUM WAGE, AND INVESTMENT ON EMPLOYMENT IN DKI JAKARTA PROVINCE IN 2018-2022

The employment problem in Indonesia is not just limited opportunities or employment opportunities and low productivity. The increase in unemployment rates is caused by limited demand for work, which is then associated with other external factors including the decline in the balance of payments, increasing foreign debt and other policies which result in a decline in economic growth, decline in wages, investment and decline in employment. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of Economic Growth, Provincial Minimum Wage, Investment, and Covid-19 Dummy on Employment in DKI Jakarta Province in 2018-2022. This study used multiple linear regression method with Generalized Least Square (GLS) model. This study uses secondary data while Covid-19 is included in the dummy variable category. The results of this study show that economic growth has a positive and significant influence on employment. Meanwhile, the provincial minimum wage, investment, and Covid-19 dummy have a negative and insignificant effect on labor absorption in DKI Jakarta Province in 2018-2022.

The Rise of Developmental Statism in India: Focusing on the Resurgence of State-owned Enterprises in the Modi Government's Infrastructure Development Strategy

This paper explores how the Narendra Modi administration has used state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to achieve its infrastructure development goals. After implementing global neoliberal policies in 1991, India had reduced the state's role and promoted private sector activities. However, these reforms failed to attract private sector investment, which led to a decline in growth. This decline in economic growth and slow progress in infrastructure became major political issues after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. India witnessed a significant political shift in 2014 with the election of BJP-led Narendra Modi government, marking the first single-party majority government in three decades. The Modi administration identified infrastructure development as a critical factor in reviving India's growth story. It embraced what I term 'Developmental Statism' by extensively utilizing SOEs as 'developmental means' to implement crucial infrastructure developmental projects. India’s this developmental strategy led to the creation of new SOEs and an expansion of the existing ones. The paper also highlights that the resurgence of SOEs in the Indian economy doesn't oppose the market economy. Instead, it facilitates the market economy by promoting public-private partnerships.

Variability of factors influencing coffee export performance in Indonesia.

Abstract
 Empirical evidence is lacking on the nexus between coffee commodity output and commodity price volatility of developing countries especially during pandemic era. The most visible impact from an economic perspective is the change of price expectation on people's basic needs which are in line with the decline of economic growth in Indonesia. This has significant implications, particularly considering the important role of coffee in supporting the country's economy. The aim of this study is to examine the factors that influence the performance of coffee exports in Indonesia. The novelty of this study lay on the used national dataset within the range of 20 years (2000-2020) and including the pandemic effect on coffee sector performance. We examines the relationship between variables and coffee exports in Indonesia using unit root tests, cointegration analysis, and an Error Correction Model (ECM). The results show that coffee exports, total area, coffee production, coffee price, gross national income, and coffee imports have significant influences on coffee exports. The variables of total area and coffee production impact coffee exports negatively in the long term, while coffee price, gross national income, and coffee imports have mixed effects. In the short term, total area and coffee production significantly affect coffee exports, while coffee prices and gross national income show no significant impact. Coffee imports have a significant negative influence on coffee exports in the short term. These findings contribute to understanding the dynamics of the coffee industry in Indonesia.

Challenged global economics amid conflict in warring countries

This research delves into the multifaceted challenges posed to society and regional development in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with a specific focus on the period spanning from February 2022 to February 2023 as a response to the social and entrepreneurial threats that have appeared due to the conflict. In addition, this research seeks not only to alleviate prevailing uncertainties but also to facilitate a comprehensive understanding of the economic landscape by identifying causal factors and providing a relevant contextual framework for the threats to society and regional development in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which affects sustainability both economically and socially. These disruptions have given rise to unprecedented uncertainties that could potentially trigger an irreversible cascade of shortages, leading to escalating costs of critical or irreplaceable products that directly affect regional development. This paper scrutinizes this intricate process, aiming to discern underlying patterns and mitigate the prevailing uncertainty—a state that challenges rational decision-making. In this pursuit, established economic theories are deployed to provide comprehensive insights into the evolving reality. Through an in-depth analysis of the interplay between the Covid-19 pandemic, the ensuing economic crisis, and the ramifications of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, this research reveals a stark decline in economic growth. In addition, the present study explores potential solutions, emphasizing the importance of enhancing workforce skills through meticulously designed educational strategies and promoting gender diversity in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) programs.