Decline In Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Research Articles

Genetics and Ischemic Heart Disease: Should We Opt for Genetic Testing for Primary Prevention?

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are a prevalent health concern within the general population of Pakistan, where the average lifespan is notably lower than the global average, with men typically living to 67 years and women to 69 years. According to the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study, Pakistan had an estimated age-standardized incidence rate of CVD at 918.18 per 100,000 (compared to the global rate of 684.33 per 100,000), along with an age-standardized death rate of 357.88 per 100,000 (globally, this rate is 239.85 per 100,000).1 Coronary heart disease (CHD), as revealed by the Framingham Heart Study focusing on individuals aged 40 to 94 without prior heart disease, displayed a lifetime risk of 49% for men and 32% for women when reaching the age of 40.2 There has been a declining trend in death rates in the United States attributed to CVD, CHD, and stroke since 1975. Data from 2000 to 2008 also indicate a decline in CHD mortality.3 Worryingly, the World Health Organization (WHO) reports a concerning rise in CHD-related fatalities in Pakistan. In 2020, 240,720 individuals died due to CHD, accounting for 16.49% of all deaths. This highlights an escalating trend of CHD-related mortality in Pakistan. It's important to note that most individuals presenting with cardiac events have one or more established or borderline risk factors aside from age and gender.4-6 While some essential risk factors are discernible, others may remain elusive. The screening of these risk factors and the evidence for targeted therapeutic interventions are still emerging and require further exploration.7 The starting point for assessing CVD risk factors is variables used to predict major cardiovascular events. These include age, sex, blood pressure, cholesterol levels, diabetes mellitus, and smoking status. Although risk assessment tools like the Pooled Cohort Equation in 2014 and Astro-CHARM have been developed, they have yet to provide satisfactory assessments for potential new CVD risk factors.8 CHD is recognized as a multifactorial disorder resulting from genetic and environmental factors interplay. Environmental risk factors have been identified in approximately 80% of CHD cases.9 Several risk scores, such as the Framingham Risk Score, PROCAM, Reynolds Risk Score, and QRISK 2, have been proposed to guide the use of statins in high-risk groups.10-14 Yet, these risk scores often lack precision and may either overestimate or underestimate future CHD events.15,16 The variation in disease susceptibility among individuals with similar environmental factors and conventional coronary artery disease risk factors (CRFs) may be attributed to genetic variations.17 Genetic analysis can potentially enhance risk discrimination beyond the consideration of CRFs alone. Family history of heart disease, accounting for more than 40% of risk estimation, has long been considered a part of CRFs.18 Candidate gene studies have been conducted to identify common variants in genes associated with disease pathways.19 Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been employed as markers of genetic diversity. Among these SNPs, those located on the 9p21 locus have shown the strongest association with CHD risk to date.20,21 However, despite the clear link between these variants and incident CHD, 9p21 locus SNPs have not definitively improved the prediction or classification of CHD risk compared to traditional risk factors.22-24 It is important to note that most genetic studies on CHD have predominantly focused on European/Caucasian populations, and their applicability to the South Asian population, including Pakistan, requires further investigation.25,26 In this context, the Pakistani population, much like other Asian countries, is underrepresented in genetic research on CHD. Shahid SU et al. did some work in this respect,27 showing 21 SNPs risk score for genetic risk analysis in the Pakistani population. In conclusion, while different risk assessment tools have been developed for the Pakistani population aged 40 years and above, there is an urgent need to expand cardiac risk evaluation by identifying genetic markers related to CHD, particularly in the younger population. This will be crucial for advancing our understanding of CHD risk factors and developing more effective prevention and intervention strategies.

Epidemiologic trends and risk factors associated with the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease in the United States, 1990-2019

Despite the decline in the rate of coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, it is unknown how the 3 strong and modifiable risk factors - alcohol, smoking, and obesity -have impacted these trends. We examine changes in CHD mortality rates in the United States and estimate the preventable fraction of CHD deaths by eliminating CHD risk factors. We performed a sequential time-series analysis to examine mortality trends among females and males aged 25 to 84 years in the United States, 1990-2019, with CHD recorded as the underlying cause of death. We also examined mortality rates from chronic ischemic heart disease (IHD), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD). All underlying causes of CHD deaths were classified based on the International Classification of Disease 9th and 10th revisions. We estimated the preventable fraction of CHD deaths attributable to alcohol, smoking, and high body-mass index (BMI) through the Global Burden of Disease. Among females (3,452,043 CHD deaths; mean [standard deviation, SD] age 49.3 [15.7] years), the age-standardized CHD mortality rate declined from 210.5 in 1990 to 66.8 per 100,000 in 2019 (annual change -4.04%, 95% CI -4.05, -4.03; incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.32, 95% CI, 0.41, 0.43). Among males (5,572,629 CHD deaths; mean [SD] age 47.9 [15.1] years), the age-standardized CHD mortality rate declined from 442.4 to 156.7 per 100,000 (annual change -3.74%, 95% CI, -3.75, -3.74; IRR 0.36, 95% CI, 0.35, 0.37). A slowing of the decline in CHD mortality rates among younger cohorts was evident. Correction for unmeasured confounders through a quantitative bias analysis slightly attenuated the decline. Half of all CHD deaths could have been prevented with the elimination of smoking, alcohol, and obesity, including 1,726,022 female and 2,897,767 male CHD deaths between 1990 and 2019. The decline in CHD mortality is slowing among younger cohorts. The complex dynamics of risk factors appear to shape mortality rates, underscoring the importance of targeted strategies to reduce modifiable risk factors that contribute to CHD mortality.

Decline of coronary heart disease mortality is strongly effected by changing patterns of underlying causes of death: an analysis of mortality data from 27 countries of the WHO European region 2000 and 2013

Mortality rates for coronary heart disease (CHD) experience a longstanding decline, attributed to progress in prevention, diagnostics and therapy. However, CHD mortality rates vary between countries. To estimate whether national patterns of causes of death impact CHD mortality, data from the WHO “European detailed mortality database” for 2000 and 2013 for populations aged ≥ 80 years was analyzed. We extracted mortality rates for total mortality, cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, dementia and ill-defined causes. We calculated proportions of selected causes of death among all deaths, and proportions of selected cardiovascular causes among cardiovascular deaths. CHD mortality rates were recalculated after re-coding ill-defined causes of death. Association between CHD mortality rates and proportions of CHD deaths was estimated by population-weighted linear regression. National patterns of causes of death were divers. In 2000, CHD was assigned as cause of death in 13–53% of all cardiovascular deaths. Until 2013, this proportion changed between − 65% (Czech Republic) and + 57% (Georgia). Dementia was increasingly assigned as underlying cause of death in Western Europe, but rarely in eastern European countries. Ill-defined causes accounted for between < 1% and 53% of all cardiovascular deaths. CHD mortality rates were closely linked to a countries’ proportion of cardiovascular deaths assigned to CHD (R2 = 0.95 for 2000 and 0.99 for 2013). We show that CHD mortality is considerably influenced by national particularities in certifying death. Changes in CHD mortality rates reflect changes in certifying competing underlying causes of death. This must be accounted for when discussing reasons for the CHD mortality decline.

Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality rates in the Slovak Republic between 1993-2008.

ObjectiveBetween the years 1993 and 2008, mortality rates from coronary heart disease (CHD) in the Slovak Republic have decreased by almost one quarter. However, this was a smaller decline than in neighbouring countries. The aim of this modelling study was therefore to quantify the contributions of risk factor changes and the use of evidence-based medical therapies to the CHD mortality decline between 1993 and 2008.MethodsWe identified, obtained and scrutinised the data required for the model. These data detailed trends in the major population cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes prevalence, body mass index (BMI) and physical activity levels), and also the uptake of all standard CHD treatments. The main data sources were official statistics (National Health Information Centre and Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic) and national representative studies (AUDIT, SLOVAKS, SLOVASeZ, CINDI, EHES, EHIS). The previously validated IMPACT policy model was then used to combine and integrate these data with effect sizes from published meta-analyses quantifying the effectiveness of specific evidence-based treatments, and population-wide changes in cardiovascular risk factors. Results were expressed as deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) attributable to risk factor changes or treatments. Uncertainties were explored using sensitivity analyses.ResultsBetween 1993 and 2008 age-adjusted CHD mortality rates in the Slovak Republic (SR) decreased by 23% in men and 26% in women aged 25–74 years. This represented some 1820 fewer CHD deaths in 2008 than expected if mortality rates had not fallen. The IMPACT model explained 91% of this mortality decline. Approximately 50% of the decline was attributable to changes in acute phase and secondary prevention treatments, particularly acute and chronic treatments for heart failure (≈12%), acute coronary syndrome treatments (≈9%) and secondary prevention following AMI and revascularisation (≈8%). Changes in CHD risk factors explained approximately 41% of the total mortality decrease, mainly reflecting reductions in total serum cholesterol. However, other risk factors demonstrated adverse trends and thus generated approximately 740 additional deaths.ConclusionOur analysis suggests that approximately half the CHD mortality fall recently observed in the SR may be attributable to the increased use of evidence-based treatments. However, the adverse trends observed in all the major cardiovascular risk factors (apart from total cholesterol) are deeply worrying. They highlight the need for more energetic population-wide prevention policies such as tobacco control, reducing salt and industrial trans fats content in processed food, clearer food labelling and regulated marketing of processed foods and sugary drinks.

Variations in coronary mortality rates between English primary care trusts: observational study 1993-2010.

BackgroundIn England, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality has declined, but variations remain.MethodsThis study aimed to describe under 75-year CHD mortality variations across geographically defined populations. Regression slopes for mortality data as a function of time were calculated for all 151 English primary care trusts (PCTs), giving the change in the expected age adjusted rate for each extra year.ResultsBetween 1993 and 2010, the mean age-standardized CHD mortality rate decreased from 107.76 to 35.12 per 100 000, but the coefficient of variation increased from 0.21 to 0.27. The slope of decline was significantly less after 2004 (β −4.91 for 1993–2003, −3.04 for 2004–2010). The proportion of smokers decreased by 24.6%. The estimated proportion of the population with controlled hypertension increased by 74.4% (2003–2010), but diabetes increased by 138% (1994–2010) and the proportion of obese people increased by 74.3% (1993–2010). There was a greater decline in CHD mortality in PCTs with greater deprivation and smoking (2006–2010).ConclusionsSince 2004, there has not been a relative reduction of variations in CHD mortality. Appropriate strategies to improve early detection and effective management of risk factors are needed to lower overall CHD mortality further and to reduce persistent variations across England.

Abstract P052: Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Declines in the United States From 1980 through 2011: Evidence for Stagnation in Young Adults, Especially Women

Background: Cardiovascular mortality rates have fallen dramatically over the past four decades. However, recent unfavorable trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors among young adults (obesity, diabetes, and tobacco use) raise concerns about their subsequent impact on CHD mortality. Furthermore, recent data from the US and other countries suggest a worsening of CHD incidence and mortality among young women. We therefore examined recent trends in CHD mortality rates in the US according to age and sex. Methods: We used mortality data between 1980 and 2011 from US adults ≥ 25 years. We calculated age-specific CHD mortality rates and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) for US adults, and compared three decades of data (1980-1989, 1990-1999, and 2000-2011). We also used Joinpoint regression modeling to assess changes in trends over time, based on inflection points of the mortality distribution. Results: Young men and women (aged&lt;55 years) showed a robust decline in CHD mortality from 1980 until 1989 (EAPC -5.5% in men and -4.6% in women). However, the two subsequent decades saw stagnation with minimal improvement (Table). This was particularly true for young women who had no improvements between 1990 and 1999 (EAPC +0.1%), and only -1% EAPC since 2000. In contrast, older adults (65+years) showed steep annual declines since 2000, approximately doubled compared with the previous period (women, -5.0% and men, -4.4%). Jointpoint analyses provided consistent results. Conclusions: The dramatic declines in cardiovascular mortality since 1980 conceals major heterogeneities. CHD death rates in older groups are now falling steeply. However, young men and women have enjoyed small decreases in CHD mortality rates since 1990. The drivers of these major differences in CHD mortality trends by age and sex needs urgent study.

OP09 Coronary mortality reductions attributable to primary prevention medications versus dietary changes in Scotland 2000–2010: modelling study using routine linked data

Background Between 2000 and 2010, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in Scotland fell by over one third. Important contributions came from reductions in blood pressure and serum cholesterol (primary prevention). However, the relative contributions from preventive medications (anti-hypertensives and statins) in individuals and from population-wide dietary changes remain unclear. We therefore examined the impact of differential effects on health inequalities. Methods We used the previously validated IMPACTsec model to estimate the contributions of population-level risk factor changes and treatment changes to the CHD mortality decline in Scotland between 2000 and 2010 for adults aged over 25. Data were stratified using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), a small area measure of deprivation. Model outputs were quantified as deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) by each intervention. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using Ersatz-based Monte Carlo simulations. Results Between 2000 and 2010, 5770 fewer CHD deaths than expected occurred in Scotland; an estimated 3570 (62%) were attributable to reductions in blood pressure and serum cholesterol. Declines in blood pressure were responsible for approximately 2285 DPPs (minimum estimate 1630, maximum estimate 2915). The vast majority (2130 DPPs) came from population-wide blood pressure falls, with bigger absolute mortality decreases in the most deprived quintile compared with the least deprived (460 vs. 340 DPPs respectively); relative contributions were similar (37.2% and 37.5%). Anti-hypertension medications resulted in only 155 fewer deaths, with similar DPPs in the most (35) and least (30) deprived quintiles. Reductions in serum cholesterol resulted in 1280 fewer deaths; approximately 515 of these were attributable to population-wide changes in diet with more deaths prevented in the most deprived quintile compared with the least deprived (170 vs. 45 DPPs; relative contribution 13.8% and 4.7%). Conversely, approximately 770 fewer deaths were attributable to statin use, with very similar absolute numbers of deaths prevented in most (140) and least (140) deprived quintiles, but relatively greater contributions in the least deprived (15.4% vs 11.2%). Statin uptake was higher in the most deprived areas (17% vs 13.2%). Conclusion Population-wide falls in blood pressure helped to reduce CHD mortality; however the benefit from hypertension treatment was small. Improved diet and statins for high-risk individuals both made important contributions to the fall in population cholesterol. Population-wide falls in blood pressure and reductions due to medical treatments for hypertension were equitable between socio-economic groups. Higher socio-economic groups appeared to benefit more from statins, probably due to better compliance; this may perpetuate inequalities.

Future Declines of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England and Wales Could Counter the Burden of Population Ageing

BackgroundCoronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a major cause of mortality in the United Kingdom. Yet predictions of future CHD mortality are potentially problematic due to population ageing and increase in obesity and diabetes. Here we explore future projections of CHD mortality in England & Wales under two contrasting future trend assumptions.MethodsIn scenario A, we used the conventional counterfactual scenario that the last-observed CHD mortality rates from 2011 would persist unchanged to 2030. The future number of deaths was calculated by applying those rates to the 2012–2030 population estimates. In scenario B, we assumed that the recent falling trend in CHD mortality rates would continue. Using Lee-Carter and Bayesian Age Period Cohort (BAPC) models, we projected the linear trends up to 2030. We validate our methods using past data to predict mortality from 2002–2011. Then, we computed the error between observed and projected values.ResultsIn scenario A, assuming that 2011 mortality rates stayed constant by 2030, the number of CHD deaths would increase 62% or approximately 39,600 additional deaths. In scenario B, assuming recent declines continued, the BAPC model (the model with lowest error) suggests the number of deaths will decrease by 56%, representing approximately 36,200 fewer deaths by 2030.ConclusionsThe decline in CHD mortality has been reasonably continuous since 1979, and there is little reason to believe it will soon halt. The commonly used assumption that mortality will remain constant from 2011 therefore appears slightly dubious. By contrast, using the BAPC model and assuming continuing mortality falls offers a more plausible prediction of future trends. Thus, despite population ageing, the number of CHD deaths might halve again between 2011 and 2030. This has implications for how the potential benefits of future cardiovascular strategies might best be calculated and presented.

Declines in coronary heart disease incidence and mortality among middle-aged adults with and without diabetes

PurposeThe purpose of the study was to investigate secular changes in coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence and mortality among adults with and without diabetes and to determine the effect of increased lipid-lowering medication use and reductions in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels on these changes. MethodsWe analyzed data on participants aged 45 to 64 years from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study in 1987–1996 (early period) and the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke Study in 2003–2009 (late period). Hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of diabetes and period with incident CHD and CHD mortality were obtained after adjustment for sociodemographics cardiovascular risk factors, lipid-lowering medication use, and LDL-C. ResultsAfter multivariable adjustment, diabetes was associated with an increased CHD risk during the early (HR = 1.99, 95% confidence interval = 1.59–2.49) and late (HR = 2.39, 95% confidence interval = 1.69–3.35) periods. CHD incidence and mortality declined between the early and late periods for individuals with and without diabetes. Increased use of lipid-lowering medication and lower LDL-C explained 33.6% and 27.2% of the decline in CHD incidence and CHD mortality, respectively, for those with diabetes. ConclusionsAlthough rates have declined, diabetes remains associated with an increased risk of CHD incidence and mortality, highlighting the need for continuing diabetes prevention and cardiovascular risk factor management.

Abstract P401: Predicting Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Trends In England And Wales: A Bayesian Age Period Cohort Forecast Up To 2030

Background: Although the rate of death (mortality) from Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) has halved since the 1970s, CHD remains a major cause of all-cause mortality in the UK. Furthermore, population ageing plus recent increases in obesity and diabetes may soon increase total CHD deaths. Predictions of future CHD mortality are thus potentially problematic. Here we explore future projections of CHD mortality in England &amp; Wales under two conventional but dramatically contrasting assumptions. Materials and Methods: In SCENARIO A, we used a conventional counterfactual, assuming that the last-observed CHD mortality rates (ONS) from 2011 would persist unchanged to 2030.The future number of deaths was then calculated by applying those rates onto 2012-2030 population estimates. In SCENARIO B, we assumed that the recent trend in CHD mortality rates would continue. We used a well-established hierarchical Bayesian Age Period Cohort (BAPC) model, which works under the assumption that variability in CHD mortality can be explained by a combination of age, period and cohort effects. We fitted this model to the observed CHD mortality from 1979 to 2011 and then continued the linear trends in age, period and cohort effects up to 2030. We then used the BAPC model to predict mortality rates in 2012-2030, and then applied these rates to population projections to compute future deaths. Results: In scenario A, by assuming that 2011 mortality rates would continue at that level, the number of CHD deaths would increase 61.5% (39,597 of 64,323) by 2030. In scenario B, by assuming recent trends continued, the number of deaths would decrease 56.7% (-36,500 of 64,323) by 2030. This substantial decrease would occur despite a predicted slowing of mortality decline in middle aged groups. Conclusion: The decline in CHD mortality has been reasonably continuous since 1979, and there is little reason to believe it will soon halt. The underlying assumption of a commonly used mortality counterfactual thus appears slightly dubious. By contrast, the BAPC model offers a far more plausible prediction of future trends by simultaneously considering age, period and cohort effects and projecting each into the future. Thus, despite population ageing, we estimated that the number of CHD deaths would halve again between 2011 and 2030. Even so, shifts in population risk factors might still cause CHD mortality to move away from a trajectory of decline. There is no room for complacency and the promotion of cardiovascular health remains a top policy priority.

Abstract P448: Exploring Socioeconomic Inequalities In Coronary Heart Disease Prevention

Background: Between 2000 and 2007, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in England plummeted by one third. An important part of this substantial CHD mortality decline was achieved through reductions in major cardiovascular risk factors (primary prevention). However, the relative contributions from medications and from population-wide changes remains unclear, particularly the effects on health inequalities. Methods: Using a previously validated policy model, the fall in CHD mortality in England was analysed. The contributions from risk factor declines in asymptomatic individuals through medications and through population-wide changes were quantified. Data were stratified using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). Model outputs were quantified as deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs). Results: Between 2000 and 2007, approximately 21,900 fewer CHD deaths were attributable to risk factor declines in systolic blood pressure and cholesterol in the English population. Some 7,100 of these 21,900 fewer deaths (DPPs) were attributed to medications (32%) and approximately 14,800 DPPs were attributed to secular changes in asymptomatic individuals (68%). Substantial declines in systolic blood pressure were responsible for approximately 14,300 fewer deaths. This comprised approximately 12,500 DPPs attributable to population-wide changes and some 1,800 DPPs attributable to hypertension medications. The hypertension medications resulted in approximately 350 fewer deaths in the most affluent quintile compared with 270 DPP in the most deprived. In contrast, the population-wide (secular) falls in blood pressure resulted in approximately 2400 fewer deaths in the most deprived quintile compared with only 1900 DPPs in the most affluent. Cholesterol falls resulted in approximately 7,700 fewer deaths. This comprised some 5,300 fewer deaths attributable to statin medications and approximately 2,400 fewer deaths attributable to population-wide changes (mostly diet). Statin medications prevented more deaths in the most affluent quintile (1050 DPPs) compared with the most deprived (770 DPPs). Population-wide changes in cholesterol prevented substantially more deaths in the most deprived quintile (820 DPPs) compared with the most affluent (260 DPPs). Conclusions: Population-based declines in blood pressure and cholesterol resulted in much greater reductions in CHD deaths than did primary prevention medications. Mortality falls were greatest in the most deprived quintiles, mainly reflecting their bigger initial burden of disease. Future CHD prevention policies should prioritise healthier diets ahead of medications.

Urban-Rural Differences in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in the United States: 1999–2009

Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality has declined in the past few decades; however, it is unclear whether the reduction in CHD deaths has been similar across urbanization levels and in specific racial groups. We describe the pattern and magnitude of urban-rural variations in CHD mortality in the U.S. Using data from the National Center for Health Statistics, we examined trends in death rates from CHD from 1999 to 2009 among people aged 35-84 years, in each geographic region (Northeast, Midwest, West, and South) and in specific racial-urbanization groups, including black and white people in large and medium metropolitan (urban) areas and in non-metropolitan (rural) areas. We also examined deaths from early-onset CHD in females aged <65 years and males aged <55 years. From 1999 to 2009, there was a 40% decline in age-adjusted CHD mortality. The trend was similar in black and white people but was more pronounced in urban than in rural areas, resulting in a crossover in 2007, when rural areas began showing a higher CHD mortality than urban areas. White people in large metropolitan areas had the largest decline (43%). Throughout the study period, CHD mortality remained higher in black people than in white people, and, in the South, it remained higher in rural than in urban areas. For early-onset CHD, the mortality decline was more modest (30%), but overall trends by urbanization and region were similar. Favorable national trends in CHD mortality conceal persisting disparities for some regions and population subgroups (e.g., rural areas and black people).

Explaining the Decline in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in Portugal Between 1995 and 2008

We aimed to quantify the contribution of treatments and risk factors to the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in Portugal, 1995 to 2008. The IMPACT mortality model was used to integrate data on trends in uptake of treatments and exposure to risk factors to explain the CHD mortality variation. Between 1995 and 2008, CHD mortality rates in Portugal decreased by 29% in men and 21% in women aged 25 to 84 years, corresponding to 3760 fewer deaths in 2008 than expected if 1995 mortality rates had persisted. Approximately 92% of the estimated decrease in number of deaths could be explained by the model; the remaining 8% were attributed to changes in unmeasured factors. Approximately 50% of the decrease explained by the model was attributable to an increased uptake of treatments, mainly antihypertensive medication (12%) and initial treatments after an acute myocardial infarction (10%), and 42% to population risk factor reductions, mainly blood pressure (27% in men and 60% in women), total cholesterol (14% in men and 5% in women), and smoking (11% in men). However, these reductions were partially offset by adverse trends in diabetes mellitus (18% in men and 2% in women) and obesity (6% in men and 5% in women) and smoking (2% in women). In this low CHD risk population, modern treatments explained approximately half of the overall decline in CHD deaths. The biggest contributions to the CHD mortality decline came from secular decreases in blood pressure and increases in hypertension treatment.

PPO1 Predicting Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality trends in England and Wales in 2020: a Bayesian age Period Cohort Approach

BackgroundAlthough Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) death rates have halved since the 1970s, CHD remains a major cause of mortality in the UK. Furthermore, population ageing plus recent increases in obesity...

OP54 Exploring Socioeconomic Inequalities in Coronary Heart Disease Prevention

BackgroundBetween 2000 and 2007, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in England plummeted by one third. An important part of this substantial CHD mortality decline was achieved through reductions in...

Modelling Coronary Heart Disease Mortality declines in the Republic of Ireland, 1985–2006

Consistent declines in coronary heart disease (CHD) death rates have been previously observed in Ireland since 1985. To use the previously validated Irish IMPACT CHD mortality model to further examine the subsequent CHD mortality falls from 1985 through to 2006, and to determine the contribution of risk factor changes and "evidence based" treatments to this decline by age and gender. CHD mortality rates fell by 68% in men (63% in 65-84 years) and by 69% in women (66% in 65-84 years). This resulted in approximately 6450 fewer CHD deaths than if mortality rates had not changed. Overall, approximately 40% (38% in men; 45% in women) of the CHD mortality decline could be attributed to improvements in treatment uptake, particularly secondary prevention (12%), angina (9%), and heart failure therapies (8%). Approximately 48% of the CHD mortality decline was attributable to risk factor improvements (54% in men; 37% in women); the biggest contributions came from falls in population systolic pressure (28%), cholesterol (24%), and physical inactivity levels (10%). Negative trends in diabetes and obesity levels generated an estimated 17% additional CHD deaths. The largest benefits from improvements in risk factors were seen in men aged 25-64 years, while the greatest treatment benefits occurred in women aged 65-84 years. The model explained approximately 88% of the observed mortality declines. Falls in CHD mortality have continued in both sexes in Ireland, but with notable gender and age differences. The continued increase in diabetes and obesity levels is particularly worrying.

Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in the Czech Republic between 1985 and 2007

Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality has declined substantially in the Czech Republic over the last two decades. The purpose of this study was to determine what proportion of this CHD mortality decline could be associated with temporal trends in major CHD risk factors and what proportion with advances in medical and surgical treatments. The validated IMPACT mortality model was used to combine and analyse data on uptake and effectiveness of CHD management and risk factor trends in the Czech Republic in adults aged 25-74 years between 1985 and 2007. The main sources were official statistics, national quality of care registries, published trials and meta-analyses, and the Czech MONICA and Czech post-MONICA studies. Between 1985 and 2007, age-adjusted CHD mortality rates in the Czech Republic decreased by 66.2% in men and 65.4% in women in the age group 25-74 years, representing 12,080 fewer CHD deaths in 2007. Changes in CHD risk factors explained approximately 52% of the total mortality decrease, and improvements in medical treatments approximately 43%. Increases in body mass index and in diabetes prevalence had a negative impact, increasing CHD mortality by approximately 1% and 5%, respectively. More than half of the very substantial fall in CHD mortality in the Czech Republic between 1985 and 2007 was attributable to reduction in major cardiovascular risk factors. Improvement in treatments accounted for approximately 43% of the total mortality decrease. These findings emphasize the value of primary prevention and evidence-based medical treatment.

Analysing Recent Socioeconomic Trends in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England, 2000–2007: A Population Modelling Study

Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in England fell by approximately 6% every year between 2000 and 2007. However, rates fell differentially between social groups with inequalities actually widening. We sought to describe the extent to which this reduction in CHD mortality was attributable to changes in either levels of risk factors or treatment uptake, both across and within socioeconomic groups. A widely used and replicated epidemiological model was used to synthesise estimates stratified by age, gender, and area deprivation quintiles for the English population aged 25 and older between 2000 and 2007. Mortality rates fell, with approximately 38,000 fewer CHD deaths in 2007. The model explained about 86% (95% uncertainty interval: 65%-107%) of this mortality fall. Decreases in major cardiovascular risk factors contributed approximately 34% (21%-47%) to the overall decline in CHD mortality: ranging from about 44% (31%-61%) in the most deprived to 29% (16%-42%) in the most affluent quintile. The biggest contribution came from a substantial fall in systolic blood pressure in the population not on hypertension medication (29%; 18%-40%); more so in deprived (37%) than in affluent (25%) areas. Other risk factor contributions were relatively modest across all social groups: total cholesterol (6%), smoking (3%), and physical activity (2%). Furthermore, these benefits were partly negated by mortality increases attributable to rises in body mass index and diabetes (-9%; -17% to -3%), particularly in more deprived quintiles. Treatments accounted for approximately 52% (40%-70%) of the mortality decline, equitably distributed across all social groups. Lipid reduction (14%), chronic angina treatment (13%), and secondary prevention (11%) made the largest medical contributions. The model suggests that approximately half the recent CHD mortality fall in England was attributable to improved treatment uptake. This benefit occurred evenly across all social groups. However, opposing trends in major risk factors meant that their net contribution amounted to just over a third of the CHD deaths averted; these also varied substantially by socioeconomic group. Powerful and equitable evidence-based population-wide policy interventions exist; these should now be urgently implemented to effectively tackle persistent inequalities.

Racial and geographic variation in coronary heart disease mortality trends.

BackgroundMagnitudes, geographic and racial variation in trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality within the US require updating for health services and health disparities research. Therefore the aim of this study is to present data on these trends through 2007.MethodsData for CHD were analyzed using the US mortality files for 1999–2007 obtained from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Age-adjusted annual death rates were computed for non-Hispanic African Americans (AA) and European Americans (EA) aged 35–84 years. The direct method was used to standardize rates by age, using the 2000 US standard population. Joinpoint regression models were used to evaluate trends, expressed as annual percent change (APC).ResultsFor both AA men and women the magnitude in CHD mortality is higher compared to EA men and women, respectively. Between 1999 and 2007 the rate declined both in AA and in EA of both sexes in every geographic division; however, relative declines varied. For example, among men, relative average annual declines ranged from 3.2% to 4.7% in AA and from 4.4% to 5.5% in EA among geographic divisions. In women, rates declined more in later years of the decade and in women over 54 years. In 2007, age-adjusted death rate per 100,000 for CHD ranged from 93 in EA women in New England to 345 in AA men in the East North Central division. In EA, areas near the Ohio and lower Mississippi Rivers had above average rates. Disparities in trends by urbanization level were also found. For AA in the East North Central division, the APC was similar in large central metro (−4.2), large fringe metro (−4.3), medium metro urbanization strata (−4.4), and small metro (−3.9). APC was somewhat higher in the micropolitan/non-metro (−5.3), and especially the non-core/non-metro (−6.5). For EA in the East South Central division, the APC was higher in large central metro (−5.3), large fringe metro (−4.3) and medium metro urbanization strata (−5.1) than in small metro (−3.8), micropolitan/non-metro (−4.0), and non-core/non-metro (−3.3) urbanization strata.ConclusionsBetween 1999 and 2007, the level and rate of decline in CHD mortality displayed persistent disparities. Declines were greater in EA than AA racial groups. Rates were greater in the Ohio and Mississippi River than other geographic regions.

Abstract MP047: Early-Onset Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Remains High Among Rural Blacks

Background: Deaths from early-onset coronary heart disease (CHD) translate into a large number of potential life-years lost with substantial impact on families and society. Although overall CHD mortality has declined in the past few decades, the extent to which such decline applies to early CHD mortality and to specific racial groups and urbanization levels has not been examined. We sought to describe the pattern and magnitude of racial and urban-rural variations in early-onset CHD mortality in the United States. Methods: We used data from the National Center for Health Statistics to examine trends in CHD death rates (ICD-10 codes I20-I25) between 1999 and 2007. Early-onset CHD mortality was defined as death due to CHD in men less than 55 yrs or women less than 65 yrs. Rate changes were calculated in the overall population and by race (blacks vs whites) and urbanization (rural vs. urban). Poisson regression was used to model the data. Results: Between 1999 and 2007, there were approximately 400,000 deaths due to early-onset CHD. There was an overall 25% decline in age-adjusted early-onset CHD mortality rates from 79 per 100,000 to 59 per 100,000 but this decline varied by gender, race, and urbanization. Women had a greater decline (27%) compared with men (19%) and blacks had slightly more decline (27%) compared to whites (25%). Urban areas (30%) had twice the decline compared to rural areas (16%). In this period early CHD deaths was higher in blacks than whites and higher in rural than urban areas (Figure). Blacks in rural areas had the highest early-onset CHD mortality, followed by blacks in large metros, while urban whites had the lowest rate. Black-white differences remained similar in urban and rural areas over this time period. Conclusion: The overall decline in early-onset CHD mortality is encouraging, but there are important differences by race and urbanization. Blacks in rural areas have the highest early-onset CHD mortality rates. Early-onset CHD can be used to identify and target groups with high risk in order to reduce disparities.