Chain Decisions Research Articles

Preliminary experiments on interpretable ChatGPT-assisted diagnosis for breast ultrasound radiologists.

Ultrasound is essential for detecting breast lesions. The American College of Radiology's Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) classification system is widely used, but its subjectivity can lead to inconsistency in diagnostic outcomes. Artificial intelligence (AI) models, such as ChatGPT-3.5, may potentially enhance diagnostic accuracy and efficiency in medical settings. This study aimed to assess the utility of the ChatGPT-3.5 model in generating BI-RADS classifications for breast ultrasound reports and its ability to replicate the "chain of thought" (CoT) in clinical decision-making to improve model interpretability. Breast ultrasound reports were collected, and ChatGPT-3.5 was used to generate diagnoses and treatment plans. We evaluated GPT-4's performance by comparing its generated reports to those from doctors with various levels of experience. We also conducted a Turing test and a consistency analysis. To enhance the interpretability of the model, we applied the CoT method to deconstruct the decision-making chain of the GPT model. A total of 131 patients were evaluated, with 57 doctors participating in the experiment. ChatGPT-3.5 showed promising performance in structure and organization (S&O), professional terminology and expression (PTE), treatment recommendations (TR), and clarity and comprehensibility (C&C). However, improvements are needed in BI-RADS classification, malignancy diagnosis (MD), likelihood of being written by a physician (LWBP), and ultrasound doctor artificial intelligence acceptance (UDAIA). Turing test results indicated that AI-generated reports convincingly resembled human-authored reports. Reproducibility experiments displayed consistent performance. Erroneous report analysis revealed issues related to incorrect diagnosis, inconsistencies, and overdiagnosis. The CoT investigation supports the potential of ChatGPT to replicate the clinical decision-making process and offers insights into AI interpretability. The ChatGPT-3.5 model holds potential as a valuable tool for assisting in the efficient determination of BI-RADS classifications and enhancing diagnostic performance.

Do Chairs Reduce a Navigator’s Mobility? Pilot Study on the Influence of Navigation Bridge Design on Lookout Routines

Abstract Despite technological progress in the maritime industry, navigators are still the final link of the decision-making chain and rely not only on equipment, but also on human senses. Visual observation of the vessel’s surroundings still plays a crucial role in navigation. Four different ships in service were visited to investigate the work of professional navigators and carry out a pilot experiment on real crews to test the methods for future full-scale research. The main objective was to better understand the influence of bridge design on lookout routines of navigators, while the additional goals were to check the presence of navigators in certain parts of the bridge and to determine if it is reasonable to forbid navigators to sit, as the practice is still used on some ships. Considering space limitations and differences in layouts of the wheelhouse, rarely mentioned in this kind of study, the movement of watch-keeping officers was analysed. In total, twenty observations were made to generate the heatmaps of presence during the routine duties. The results of the research indicate that many factors, including bridge design and layout of equipment, might affect lookout routines but it is possible to find similar patterns on the bridges of different shapes and arrangements. The pilot experiment confirms that it is reasonable to carry out a full-scale study, as there is still room for improvement in the area of ergonomic bridge design. Better understanding of modern lookout and movement routines might lead to the development of adequate ergonomic regulations and result in increased work comfort and the well-being of seafarers.

A system dynamics modelling and analytical framework for imported dengue outbreak surveillance and risk mapping

System Dynamics (SD) models have been used to understand complex, multi-faceted dengue transmission dynamics, but a gap persists between research and actionable public health tools for decision-making. Spain is an at-risk country of imported dengue outbreaks, but only qualitative assessments are available to guide public health action and control. We propose a modular SD model combining temperature-dependent vector population, transmission parameters, and epidemiological interactions to simulate outbreaks from imported cases accounting for heterogeneous local climate-related transmission patterns. Under our assumptions, 15 provinces sustain vector populations capable of generating outbreaks from imported cases, with heterogeneous risk profiles regarding seasonality, magnitude and risk window shifting from late Spring to early Autum. Results being relative to given vector-to-human populations allow flexibility when translating outcomes between geographic scales. The model and the framework are meant to serve public health by incorporating transmission dynamics and quantitative-qualitative input to the evidence-based decision-making chain. It is a flexible tool that can easily adapt to changing contexts, parametrizations and epidemiological settings thanks to the modular approach.

Sustainability Risks and Decision Making in the Construction Industry: A Case Study-Based Approach

In recent years, with the concept of sustainability put forward, more and more enterprises have considered it when making strategies and decisions. Sustainability emphasizes striking a balance between the economic, environmental, and social dimensions to ensure that current development does not jeopardize future resources and opportunities. The construction industry is not an exception. However, due to the huge energy consumption and inevitable uncertainty in the construction scenes, the sustainability concept needs to be conducted better in this industry. Current studies focused on the sustainability decision-making model choices; these studies greatly contribute to the theoretical background but could be more focused on the construction scenes and sustainability decision-making chain. This paper first revealed the risks and consequences of sustainability to point out the necessity of this research. Secondly, this paper demonstrated two case studies about sustainability decision-making. Reviewing these cases concluded a sustainability decision-making chain, which may help the construction industry reduce energy consumption and shoulder more social responsibilities.

Multi-temporal analysis to support the management of torrent control structures

In the last decade with increasing frequency of extreme weather events, an accurate, sustainable, and effective planning of torrent control structures has become essential to reduce hydro-geomorphic risk. Quite often in planning interventions, there is a lack of information on the effectiveness of existing structures, the evolution of the ongoing hydro-geomorphic process, and a priori in-depth study to analyze the sediment morphology dynamics and the interaction with possible existing torrent control structures.Nowadays, High-Resolution Topography data (HRT) greatly simplifies the monitoring of sediment morphology dynamics and the understanding of the interaction with torrent control structures over time. Therefore, thanks to repeated HRT surveys, it is possible to derive multi-temporal Digital Terrain Models (DTMs), and DTMs of Difference (DoDs) to quantify the morphological changes and study continuously the catchment morphodynamics. This information can be very valuable to support watershed management plans if combined with up-to-date field surveys that identify the existing torrent control structures, and asses their current status and functionality.The present work aims at introducing a methodological approach based on the integration of the sediment morphology dynamics data over large time spans (e.g., from 2003 to 2022), obtained by multi-temporal DoDs (realized from three DTMs at 1 m resolution), with an updating cadastre of torrent control structures enriched by a very simple, quick, and user-friendly Maintenance Priority index (MPi). The proposed workflow proved to be very useful in the test basins analysed, providing more complete data on torrent control structures and sediment dynamics evidence to stakeholders compared to the past. Moreover, it served as a proxy to assess the long-term effectiveness of the management interventions. The approach also helped to constantly identify the areas most prone to hazards, improve the intervention planning, and find more appropriate solutions or direct the maintenance works.Finally, the suggested workflow could be the starting point to outline up-to-date guidelines to be used in other catchments equipped with torrent control structures, emphasizing possible intervention priorities on where decision-makers could better invest resources. By providing current information and accurate tools to realize a more complete decision-making chain, which is often neglected, it is certainly possible to support more sustainable and effective risk management decisions.

Handlungsempfehlungen für SARS-CoV-2-Testkonzepte für asymptomatische Beschäftigte im Gesundheitswesen

ZusammenfassungHintergrund und ZielsetzungBei der Umsetzung von SARS-CoV‑2-Testkonzepten in Einrichtungen des Gesundheitswesens kommen ranggleiche Gesetze und Verordnungen zur Anwendung. Vor dem Hintergrund erlebter Hindernisse bei einer adäquaten Umsetzung gesetzlicher Vorgaben in regelkonforme und rechtssichere Prozesse auf betrieblicher Ebene war das Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit, dafür konkrete Handlungsempfehlungen zu entwickeln.MethodikIn einer Fokusgruppe mit Vertreter*innen aus Behörden, Fachschaften und Interessenvertretungen wurden auf Basis von Leitfragen aus zuvor identifizierten Handlungsfeldern in einem holistischen Ansatz kritische Aspekte der Umsetzung diskutiert. Die transkribierten Inhalte wurden anhand deduktiv-induktiver Kategorienbildung qualitativ analysiert.ErgebnisseAlle Diskussionsinhalte konnten den identifizierten Kategorien Gesetzliche Hintergründe von, Anforderungen an und Zielrichtungen für Testkonzepte in Gesundheitseinrichtungen, Zuständigkeiten für Umsetzung in betrieblichen Entscheidungsketten sowie Implementierung von SARS-CoV-2-Testkonzepten/Testprozessen zugeordnet werden.ImplikationenDie Umsetzung gesetzlicher Vorgaben in regelkonforme und rechtssichere SARS-CoV-2-Testkonzepte in Einrichtungen des Gesundheitswesens setzt bereits sowohl die Einbeziehung von Ministerien, Fachschaftsvertretungen, Berufsverbänden, Arbeitgeber(AG)- und Arbeitnehmer*innenvertretungen, Datenschutzexpert*innen, Vertretungen möglicher Kostenträger als auch eine integrative und vollzugstaugliche Formulierung von Gesetzen und Verordnungen voraus. Die Definition von Zielrichtungen für Testkonzepte ist maßgeblich für nachfolgend im Betrieb etablierte Prozessabläufe, bei denen Aspekte des Beschäftigtendatenschutzes genauso berücksichtigt werden müssen wie die Bereitstellung zusätzlicher personeller Ressourcen für die Bewältigung der Aufgaben. Zudem muss es in Zukunft ein zentrales Anliegen der Betriebe sein, IT-Schnittstellenlösungen für eine datenschutzkonforme Informationsweitergabe zu Beschäftigten zu finden.

Optimal Financing Decision for Supply Chain under Different Carbon Emission Limitation Policies

With the characteristics of credit enhancement and low cost, supply chain finance is one of the effective ways to solve the "difficult and expensive financing" of small and medium-sized enterprises. In order to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality as early as possible and to deeply implement the concept of sustainable development, we need to consider the impact of carbon emissions on supply chain financing methods in the study of supply chain finance. The existing carbon emission limitation policies include quantity (carbon cap-and-trade) and price (carbon tax) policies. Therefore, this paper incorporates both policies into the supply chain to consider the policy effects of the two policies being implemented simultaneously. The supply chain consists of a manufacturer with limited capital and a retailer with sufficient capital. Under bank financing, zero-interest early payment financing and in-house factoring financing, this paper simultaneously studies the effects of carbon tax rates and carbon emission trading prices on the supply chain's decision variables and profits by applying the Stackelberg game approach. The numerical simulation results show that the supply chain's profits are lower when emissions exceed standards than its profits when emissions do not exceed standards. Under the high carbon tax rates and high carbon emission trading prices, the optimal financing method is bank financing. Under the low carbon tax rates and low carbon emission trading prices, zero-interest early payment financing and in-house factoring financing are the optimal financing methods. As consumers' green sensitivity of rises, the policy's regulation scope of optimal bank financing is restricted, however, the policy's regulation scope of the other two financing methods is expanded.

Modelling the critical success factors for advanced manufacturing technology implementation in small and medium sized enterprises

In almost every part of the world, small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) are seen as the backbone of economic expansion. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) typically have a simpler organisational structure than large corporations, which allows them to be more adaptable, provide instantaneous feedback, have shorter decision-making chains, and respond more quickly to customer needs. Even so, SMEs face enormous pressure to stay competitive in both domestic and international markets. Globalization, new technologies, and evolving consumer preferences are all contributing to a shift in the competitive landscape. These shifts are compelling small and mediumsized enterprises to adopt cutting-edge manufacturing techniques. The goal of this research is to identify the critical success factors (CSFs) that will help and guarantee that SMEs will be able to successfully implement AMTs (SMEs). Literature-based CSFs for AMT deployment are collected and fine-tuned using input from professionals in the field and scholars in the academy. The method of interpretive structural modelling (ISM) is applied to this CSF analysis. According to the ISM study, the three most important factors influencing the adoption of AMT are "Top management support and commitment," "entrepreneurial environment," and "financial availability." The desired goal of AMT implementation is found to be "performance improvement" and "sustainable AMT implementation." The identified CSFs and the structural relationship between them will help SMEs' top management create and prioritise business strategies that ease the implementation of AMT. The study's results point potential AMT financiers in the right direction by highlighting a handful of critical considerations that will improve the project's chances of success.

The control of the policy advice industry: how patrons defer their decision-rights to think tank boards

Patrons of think tanks—for example, governments, corporations, philanthropists, NGOs, and so forth—may control think tanks’ boards, that is, their highest decision-making body. Whether patrons are likely to control boards is a question that remains under-explored and under-theorised in public administration and governance scholarship. It is posited that patrons are likely to control boards when the marginal benefit of partaking in decision-making does not exceed the cost of information transfer. The comparative examination of International Relations think tanks’ statutes shows that patron control is substantial. However, patronage does not always guarantee board control. Patron control is moderated by the nature of the transaction. The conclusion assesses patron control concerning decision-making processes in the think tank and the idiosyncratic character of policy advice. Points for practitioners Practitioners can assess events of goal displacement in think tanks by learning about mechanisms that facilitate or hinder patron control over think tanks. Laying out the conditions under which patrons exercise control, the latter turns out to be substantial despite not all patrons having control over think tank boards. Patron control is shown to depend on the position of stakeholders in the decision-making chain and the nonlinear relation between effort and influence in policy advice.

ATOVis – A visualisation tool for the detection of financial fraud

Fraud detection is related to the suppression of possible financial losses for institutions and their clients. It is a task of high responsibility and, therefore, an important phase of the decision-making chain. Nowadays, experts in charge base their analysis on tabular data, usually presented in spreadsheets and seldom supplemented with simple visualisations. However, this type of inspection is laborious, time-consuming, and may be of little use for the analysis and overview of complex transactional data. To aid in the inspection of fraudulent activities, we develop ATOVis – a visualisation tool that enables a fast analysis and detection of suspicious behaviours. We aim to ease and accelerate fraud detection by providing an overview of specific patterns within the data, and enabling details on demand. ATOVis focuses on applying visualisation techniques to the Finance domain, specifically e-commerce, contributing to the state-of-the-art as the first visualisation tool primarily specialised in Account Takeover (ATO) patterns. In particular, the present paper incorporates: a task abstraction for detecting a specific financial fraud pattern – ATO; two models for the visualisation of ATO; and a multiscale timeline to enable an overview of the data. We also validate our tool through user testing, with experts in fraud detection and experts from other fields of data science. Based on the feedback provided by the analysts, we could conclude that ATOVis is an efficient and effective tool in detecting specific patterns of fraud which can improve the analysts’ work.

The Role of Smart Technologies in Enhancement of Supply Chain Visibility

The Globalization, intense opposition, and robust prominence on getting the highest satisfaction scores from the customers has been considered as one of the driving factors for the upsurge in the research of the introduction of smart technologies in material movement enhancing the visibility of the supply chain. If the supply chain function of the organization is capable enough to handle complex requests along with transparency in information visibility and decision support, then the stakeholders/consumers tend to trust the operations more. It would be apt to state that visibility is currently an enabler for supply chain relationship collaboration, business planning, and decision support.

Customer models for artificial intelligence-based decision support in fashion online retail supply chains

Fashion is a global, multi-trillion dollar industry devoted to producing and selling clothing, footwear, and accessories to individuals or groups of people. Its sheer numbers, together with social and environmental sustainability concerns, and the move towards digitalization of customer-centric operations, make the fashion business a prime target for Decision Support Systems (DSSs). On the other hand, decision support in fashion retail is particularly problematic and embraces all major supply chain domains. Decisions in an online fashion retail supply chain (FRSC) are highly dependent on time-varying customers' preferences and product availability, often leading to a combinatorial explosion. To address such a problem, DSSs could greatly benefit from high-quality information stored in customer models (CMs), constructed by using Artificial Intelligence techniques, allowing informed decisions on how to personalize (adapt) to match the customer's needs and preferences. Combinations of CMs with recommender systems (RSs) have been increasingly utilized in fashion e-commerce to provide personalized product recommendations. Nevertheless, works on enhancing CMs for e-commerce or other decision-making chain domains are scanty. This paper offers a systematic review of the literature on fashion CMs with applications to decision-making in FRSCs, mining topics for a research agenda. Research on the theme is relevant and urgent for the fashion business, which is still in its infancy. Work on the agenda topics could benefit distinct fashion stakeholders, not just customers, and produce well-grounded decision-making in varied FRSC contexts and dynamics.

A closed-loop power battery supply chain differential game model considering echelon utilization under a cost subsidy

PurposeThis study considered the dynamic equilibrium decision-making problem in a three-level supply chain comprising a manufacturer, a recycler and an echelon utilization (EchU) enterprise under the condition of cost-sharing coordination.Design/methodology/approachThis study constructed a differential game model based on cost-sharing coordinated decision-making among a manufacturer, a recycler and an EchU enterprise operating under a cost subsidy. The study determined the optimal equilibrium strategies and evolutionary characteristics of subsidy mechanisms in a closed-loop supply chain. Finally, this study numerically simulated the path evolution process of vehicle battery EchU, the profit of each stakeholder and the sensitivity of parameters and verified the influences of various parameters on the overall structure and path.FindingsThe results show that a cost subsidy policy has a moderating effect on the EchU decision-making process and supply chain profit. The effect of that policy increases over time.Practical implicationsThis study determined the equilibrium decision-making of enterprises in a closed-loop vehicle battery supply chain from a dynamic perspective, as well as the combined effects of government subsidy policies and cost-sharing coordination mechanisms.Social implicationsThe results have important guiding significance for coordination and cooperation between enterprises in closed-loop supply chains, for their decision-making and for the development of government subsidies.Originality/valueThis study considered the effects of government subsidies on closed-loop supply chains and the introduction of an EchU market to a closed-loop vehicle battery supply chain.

Design Liability under FIDIC Red Book and Some Civil Law Jurisdictions

AbstractThe construction industry has enormous supply and decision-making chains. Disruptions within these chains can have significant adverse impacts on countries’ economies. There are several met...

Let's End HepC: Modelling Public Health Epidemiological Policies Applied to Hepatitis C in Spain.

Background: The WHO has defined international targets toward the elimination of hepatitis C by 2030. Most countries cannot be on track to achieve this goal unless many challenges are surpassed. The Let's End HepC (LEHC) tool aims to contribute to the control of hepatitis C. The innovation of this tool combines the modelling of public health policies (PHP) focused on hepatitis C with epidemiological modelling of the disease, obtaining a unique result that allows to forecast the impact of policy outcomes. The model was applied to several countries, including Spain.Methods: To address the stated objective, we applied the “Adaptive Conjoint Analysis” for PHP decision-making and Markov Chains in the LEHC modelling tool. The tool also aims to be used as an element of health literacy for patient advocacy through gamification mechanisms and country comparability. The LEHC project has been conducted in several countries, including Spain. The population segments comprised in the project are: People Who Inject Drugs (PWID), prisoners, blood products, remnant population.Results: A total of 24 PHP related to hepatitis C were included in the LEHC project. It was identified that Spain had fully implemented 14 of those policies to control hepatitis C. According to LEHC's model forecast, the WHO's Hepatitis C elimination goal on reducing the number of patients living with Hepatitis C to 10% can be achieved in Spain by 2026 if current policies are maintained. The model estimates that the total population in Spain, by 2026, is expected to comprise 26,367 individuals living with hepatitis C. Moreover, if the 24 PHP considered for this study are fully implemented in Spain, the elimination goal may be achieved in 2024, with 29,615 individuals living with hepatitis C by that year.Conclusion: The findings corroborate the view that Spain has set great efforts in directing PHP toward Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) elimination by 2030. However, there is still room for improvement, namely in further implementing 10 of the 24 PHP considered for the LEHC project. By maintaining the 14 PHP in force, the LEHC model estimates the HCV elimination in the country by 2026, and by 2024 if further measures are employed to control the disease.

Обзор проектов реализации инновационных технологий производственной безопасности в российских нефтегазовых компаниях

According to Rostekhnadzor, an increased level of accidents is observed at the facilities of the oil and gas complex of the Russian Federation in 2021, in relation to the previous year. This is due to the insufficiently effective work of the production control services, the lack of a detailed analysis of each accident and accident, the prevention of the study of the causes.
 Every year, the economic damage caused by accidents, industrial injuries, and occupational diseases increases both in the main and auxiliary activities of companies in the Russian oil and gas complex.
 Recently, companies in various sectors of the economy have been paying great attention to the introduction of innovative technologies (IT) to ensure industrial safety (IS), including labor protection, fire safety and road safety.
 It is relevant to study trends in the implementation of IT in the areas of safety assurance used by domestic oil and gas companies to reduce the number of accidents, eliminate occupational injuries and occupational diseases.
 It should also be emphasized that the literature does not pay enough attention to comprehensive research reviews of projects for the implementation and practical application of IT in the field of IS, and, first of all, in oil and gas companies. These reviews are especially valuable for managers and specialists in the field of IS to make strategic and tactical timely management decisions for the implementation of IT. Research of projects on the introduction of innovative technologies for ensuring industrial safety in Russian oil and gas companies will allow you to build the entire decision-making chain: from goal setting to practical implementation.

Behind every robust result is a robust method: Perspectives from a case study and publication process in hydrological modelling

Behind every robust result is a robust method: Perspectives from a case study and publication process in hydrological modelling

Government Low-Carbon Regulations Based on Supply Chain Members’ Behavior and Consumers’ Channel Preference in a Dual-Channel Supply Chain

As carbon emissions are increasing due to the development of economy, low-carbon supply chain plays an important role in carbon emissions reduction and the dual-channel supply chain has become a hit because online shopping is developing rapidly. Therefore, this paper builds a Stackelberg game model led by the manufacturer in a dual-channel supply chain to examine the reaction of the government under centralized or decentralized decisions-making structures with different low-carbon strategies. The result shows that the government can achieve higher profits by taking incentive or punitive measures for centralized decision-making supply chain no matter they invest in emissions reduction or not. Moreover, for decentralized decision-making mode, increasing low-carbon subsidies for retailers can achieve a win-win result between the supply chain and the government; and, finally, channel competition is good for improving the supply chain and social benefits. Therefore, the government is responsible for taking reasonable subsidy policies, formulate industry’s low-carbon standards, and properly guide competition between supply chain members to achieve higher profits.

Творческий потенциал производственной системы как движущая сила ее развития

The results of years-long scientific research on the formation of a unified approach that establishes the driving forces of the development of production systems of various directions are presented. Recommendations on the use of the creative potential of the system as the main driving force, invariant with respect to the conditions of the consumer environment, are formed. A comprehensive analysis of the various areas of production development that are currently the most popular in the discussion showed that a unified approach to evaluating efficiency is based on the main internal factor of developing production — the creative potential of the production system. This factor is stable under any changes in the external environment, it is a direct or indirect source of production efficiency and is also the main «engine» of production transformation. The mystery of intuitive thinking, which is the basis of creativity, makes it related to the phenomena of «synergy» in living nature and explains its insufficient coverage in science and technology. The modern development of production in the new directions covered in this publication will force both practitioners and production theorists to boldly and persistently promote new models and methods of study that include creativity and its applied links in the decision-making chain in production management as the main, central element and driving force of the development. English version of the article is available at URL: https://panor.ru/articles/creative-potential-of-the-production-system-as-a-driving-force-of-its-development/65095.html

The social contagion of temporal discounting in small social networks

Decisions often require a tradeoff between immediate and long-term gratification. How individuals resolve such tradeoffs reflects constructs such as temporal discounting, the degree that individuals devalue delayed rewards. Recent research has started to focus on temporal decisions made in collaborative contexts (e.g., dyads, small groups). Results suggest that directly interacting with others leads to revisions in preferences, such that decision makers become more similar to their collaborative partners over time (e.g., more patient following collaboration with a patient other). What remains to be seen is whether this social influence extends to indirect social effects, such as when an individual influences another’s preferences through a shared collaborative partner. In the current study, the focus was on decisions regarding hypothetical monetary rewards. Groups of three participated in a collaborative decision-making chain, in which network member X collaborated with member Y, who then subsequently collaborated with member Z. Though network members X and Z never directly interacted, a significant indirect link was observed between member X’s pre-collaborative decision preferences and member Z’s post-collaborative decision preferences. These results demonstrate that temporal decision preferences can be transmitted through intervening connections in a small social network (i.e., social contagion), showing that indirect social influence can be empirically observed and measured in controlled environments.