Abstract A novel methodology to analyze the trend of radioactive effluent data from nuclear power plants (NPPs) has been proposed to estimate the possibility of abnormal releases of radioactive materials, and to identify sensitive radionuclides with high correlation to specific events and abnormal releases. Actual discharge data including abnormal releases for 21 years (1,610 reactor-years) from 62 US and 22 Korean pressurized water reactors were collected. A release correlation factor (RCF) was newly proposed as a quantitative indicator of the abnormality of radioactive discharges based on annual discharge data from each NPP. The probability of correct estimation of abnormality using the RCF for a test case ranges 27–36 %, and such a modest estimation power was ascribed to the relatively low contribution (i.e., about 12 %) of a specific causal event to the annual radioactivity release. Through this, the feasibility of the RCF for estimating the abnormality of radioactive discharges was demonstrated. The RCF was derived for three types of causal events, and subsequently the sensitive radionuclides to each specific event were derived as 88Kr, 137Xe, and 138Xe for leakage from gas decay tank, 3H for leakage from steam generator’s power operated relief valve, and 85Kr, 88Kr, 133Xe, 133mXe, 3H and 14C for leakage from defected spent fuel during handling. The new approach proposed in this study is to be used to suppose the significant unreported abnormality in radioactive effluent data and the potential causal event, which may contribute to improving the safety and performance of radioactive effluent control as necessary.