Decadal Time Frames Research Articles

Assessment of climate change on river streamflow under different representative concentration pathways

Climate change and excessive greenhouse gas emissions profoundly impact hydrological cycles, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, necessitating assessments of their effects on water resource management, agriculture, soil fertility, nutrient transport, hydropower generation, and flood risk. This study investigates climate change repercussions on streamflow in the Zarrineh River Basin, Iran, across three decadal intervals (2020–2029, 2055–2064, and 2090–2099) aiming to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Four General Circulation Models (GCMs), chosen based on distinct Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) determined by the annual mean temperature gradient, are employed. These models generate daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures along with precipitation data. Subsequently, these variables are integrated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to analyze river flow alterations for each decadal timeframe. Comparison between future projections and observed climate data reveals a gradual decline in precipitation and Tmax, coupled with a substantial increase in Tmin. The average precipitation diminishes from 0.77 mm in the period 1985–1994 to a range of 0.42–0.28 mm in 2090–2099. The simulated flow at the basin outlet highlights that the GCM with the highest annual mean temperature gradient yields the lowest streamflow, while conversely, the model with the lowest gradient generates the highest. Consequently, streamflow experiences a decline from 52 m3/s in 1985–1994 to a range of 41–20 m3/s in 2090–2099.

The stability of bird assemblages across time and the reliability of snapshot surveys

Abstract‘Snapshot’ surveys conducted over 1 year or less are widely used to describe avian community composition. Maron et al. (Austral Ecology, 2005, 30, 383) questioned the utility of snapshot surveys and the conclusions drawn from them following repeat bird surveys at 26 sites in western Victoria, 7 years after initial surveys. They concluded, ‘the distribution of most species did not differ significantly from that expected if species had redistributed at random among sites’. Only five of 54 species recorded in both years had distributions that changed significantly less than expected among sites between the survey periods. We question whether this is the exception rather than the rule for Australian landbird communities in wooded habitats for three reasons: (1) passerine species dominate these communities and tend to remain faithful to a site once a breeding territory has been established; (2) most landbird species are sedentary or migratory, not nomadic; and (3) most Australian passerines are long‐lived, so surveys conducted within decadal timeframes may sample the same individuals. We examined the constancy of bird community composition by conducting repeat surveys at 29 sites in two vegetation types in the Namoi Valley, northern New South Wales, 7 years after the first survey. Bird assemblage composition in our study exhibited high levels of turnover between surveys, but 21 of 62 species present in both survey periods were significantly more likely to be found at the same sites in the second period as the first, and the tendency of most species was of site fidelity. Mantel tests demonstrated that assemblage composition at the same sites was more similar than expected by chance. Moderate levels of site fidelity among species and significant levels of assemblage composition constancy among sites should be the expectation when monitoring Australian landbird communities in wooded habitats over extended timeframes, except in the cases of major landscape transformation and extreme climatic disruptions.

Examining Varying Rainfall in the different elevation of Nepal and Water Scarcity

This study assesses the variation of rainfall in the different elevations in the water basin in Nepal. Employing time series data sets of rainfall from 1980 to 2020 collected from Department of Hydrology and Metrology, Nepal, this study has used Mann Kendal test and Sen’s test. In the different elevations, the variation of rainfall is heterogeneous. In the steep elevated landscapes, rainfall is extreme. In the last 47 years, trend of annual rainfall’s mean (Rmean) and moving average (Rmeanma) have been declining. During that period, there were extremes of higher and lower rainfall in the decadal time frame. Kendall’s coefficient (τ) and Sen’s coefficient (β) of Rmean are -3.65°c and -0.13°c respectively. It implies decreasing trend of Rmean from 1975 to 2020. Sen’s coefficient (β) of Rmean validate decreasing trend of Rmean. However, it is insignificant (P=0.2>0.05). Differently, except Kendall’s coefficient (τ) and Sen’s coefficient (β) of Rmean in Tzone2 (1990-1999), Kendall’s coefficient (τ) and Sen’s coefficient (β) of the remaining three time zones, Tzone1 (1980-1989), Tzone3 (2000-2009) and Tzone4 (2010-2019) are negative. Therefore, rainfall has negative trend in the different elevations of the water basin. We conclude water scarcity & stress exist in the small cities. To minimize water vulnerability, water saving and preserving behaviour of household should be developed and the government agency should campaign tree plantation, protect water sources and initiate water management program.

Detection of decadal time‐series changes in flow hydrology in eastern Australia: Considerations for river recovery and flood management

AbstractSince European colonisation, many coastal rivers of New South Wales (NSW) have been highly modified by channelisation, flow regulation, sediment mining, intensive grazing and agriculture, deforestation, and riparian vegetation and wood removal. Since the late 1980s, nearly 55% of these rivers have undergone a significant ‘re‐greening’ and geomorphic recovery with changes to instream and riparian roughness. However, little research has been undertaken to quantify if there have been any coeval changes in flow hydrology. Approximately 7000 flow hydrographs with one‐hour time‐steps from 117 gauges on 45 study rivers (17 of 20 coastal catchments of NSW) were used to assess changes to in‐channel and overbank hydrology over decadal timeframes. Hydrograph shape and attenuation characteristics for three morphologically defined flow stages were analysed: in‐channel fresh, high flow and overbank flood. Time‐series analysis was used to quantify changes in flow hydrology from the early‐20th century to present and identify trends occurring between known degradation phases (1910s–1940s and 1940s–1980s) and a recovery phase (1990s to present) for these rivers. Our findings indicate that, on average, and for some key examples, changes in flow hydrology are occurring. Flows are slowing and attenuating as indicated by decreases in flood wave celerity and hydrograph kurtosis, skewness and rate of rise and increases in peak‐to‐peak travel time, flood peak attenuation and flood wave attenuation index. The most significant changes have occurred since the 1980s with the most noticeable effects on the behaviour of high flows (around the bankfull stage). However, there is not a consistent direction change in these indicators in all places. We use these findings to categorise the flow mitigation signal of the study regions and catchments and discuss the implication for river and flood management.

Building capacity for estimating fire emissions from tropical peatlands; a worked example from Indonesia

Tropical peatlands are globally significant in the terrestrial carbon cycle as they are comprised of a large forest carbon sink and a large peat carbon store—both of which can potentially be exchanged with the atmosphere on decadal time frames. Greenhouse gas emissions from fire-disturbance and development of tropical peatlands over the last few decades, and the potential for ongoing emissions, highlights the need for policy to slow or halt emissions and to activate mechanisms to sequester carbon through restoration of degraded peatlands. The UN REDD + scheme provides a means for developing countries to receive payments for avoided deforestation and forest degradation, but the steps to achieve REDD+ compliance are rigorous and the details required can be a barrier to activating benefits—especially for peatlands where repeated cycles of fire interrupt forest recovery and create a range of recovery classes. Therefore, to improve estimates of peat fire emissions and of carbon balance of tropical peatlands, the biomass and combustion factor parameters need to be developed and applied according to forest recovery stage. In this study we use published activity data from the extensive 1997 fires in the peatlands of Indonesian Borneo to detail a transparent and accountable way to estimate and report emissions from tropical peatland fires. This example for estimating and reporting emissions is provided to assist REDD+ countries to efficiently develop their capacity for improving emissions estimates from fire-impacted tropical peatlands.

Attenuation of Barium, Strontium, Cobalt, and Nickel Plumes Formed during Microbial Iron Reduction in a Crude-Oil-Contaminated Aquifer

We assessed the spatial distribution of 35 elements in aquifer sediments and groundwater of a crude-oil-contaminated aquifer and show evidence of the dissolution of barium (Ba), strontium (Sr), cobalt (Co), and nickel (Ni) during hydrocarbon oxidation coupled to historic microbial Fe(III)-reduction near the oil. Trace element plumes occur in the crude-oil-contaminated aquifer, where 50% Co, 47% Ni, 24% Ba, and 15% Sr have been mobilized from the sediment near the oil into groundwater, resulting in dissolved masses >33, 18, three, and two times greater than estimated dissolved masses prior to contamination, respectively. Ba2+ and Ni2+ concentrations exceeded the World Health Organization’s drinking-water guidelines of 700 and 20 μg/L, respectively. Sediments attenuate trace element plumes in two geochemically distinct zones, resulting in <0.01% total trace element masses dissolved in groundwater, despite the substantial mobilization near the oil body. Geochemical modeling of the modern Fe(III)-reducing zone suggests trace elements are likely attenuated via coprecipitation with/without sorption on iron carbonate precipitates. In the suboxic transition zone at the leading edge of the plume, Fe(III)-hydroxides sorb Ba2+, Sr2+, Co2+, and Ni2+. This study emphasizes that slow but persistent biogeochemical activity can substantially alter aquifer chemistry over decadal timeframes, a phenomenon we term biogeochemical gradualism.

Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw

We used a model for permafrost hydrology informed by detailed measurements of soil ice content to better understand the potential risk of abrupt permafrost thaw triggered by melting ground ice, a key open question associated with permafrost response to a warming Arctic. Our spatially resolved simulations of a well-characterized site in polygonal tundra near Utqiaġvik, Alaska, agree well with multiple types of observations in the current climate. Projections indicate 63cm of bulk subsidence from 2006 to 2100 in the strong-warming RepresentativeConcentration Pathway 8.5 climate. Permafrost thaw as measured by the increase in active layer thickness (ALT)-the thickness of the soil layer that thaws each summer-is accelerated by subsidence, but the effect is relatively small. The ALT increases from the current-day value of approximately 50cm to approximately 180cm by 2100 when subsidence is included compared to about 160cm when it is neglected. In these simulations, previously identified positive feedbacks between subsidence and thaw are self-limiting on decadal time frames because landscape runoff and increasing evapotranspiration result in drier tundra with weaker surface/atmosphere coupling. These results for a tundra site that is representative of large swathes of the Alaska North Slope suggest that subsidence is unlikely to lead to abrupt thaw over large areas. However, subsidence does have significant effects on the hydrology of polygonal tundra. Specifically, subsidence increases landscape runoff, which helps maintain streamflow in the face of increased evapotranspiration but also causes drier tundra conditions that could have deleterious effects on sensitive Arctic wetland ecosystems.

Wild herbivores enhance resistance to invasion by exotic cacti in an African savanna

Abstract Whether wild herbivores confer biotic resistance to invasion by exotic plants remains a key question in ecology. There is evidence that wild herbivores can impede invasion by exotic plants, but it is unclear whether and how this generalises across ecosystems with varying wild herbivore diversity and functional groups of plants, particularly over long‐term (decadal) time frames. Using data from three long‐term (13‐ to 26‐year) exclosure experiments in central Kenya, we tested the effects of wild herbivores on the density of exotic invasive cacti, Opuntia stricta and O. ficus‐indica (collectively, Opuntia), which are among the worst invasive species globally. We also examined relationships between wild herbivore richness and elephant occurrence probability with the probability of O. stricta presence at the landscape level (6150 km2). Opuntia densities were 74% to 99% lower in almost all plots accessible to wild herbivores compared to exclosure plots. Opuntia densities also increased more rapidly across time in plots excluding wild herbivores. These effects were largely driven by megaherbivores (≥1000 kg), particularly elephants. At the landscape level, modelled Opuntia stricta occurrence probability was negatively correlated with estimated species richness of wild herbivores and elephant occurrence probability. On average, O. stricta occurrence probability fell from ~0.56 to ~0.45 as wild herbivore richness increased from 6 to 10 species and fell from ~0.57 to ~0.40 as elephant occurrence probability increased from ~0.41 to ~0.84. These multi‐scale results suggest that any facilitative effects of Opuntia by wild herbivores (e.g. seed/vegetative dispersal) are overridden by suppression (e.g. consumption, uprooting, trampling). Synthesis. Our experimental and observational findings that wild herbivores confer resistance to invasion by exotic cacti add to evidence that conserving and restoring native herbivore assemblages (particularly megaherbivores) can increase community resistance to plant invasions.

Stability and trace element composition of natural schwertmannite precipitated from acid mine drainage

Schwertmannite is an iron hydroxo sulfate secondary mineral (Fe8O8(OH)8-2x(SO4)x•nH2O; 1 ≤ x ≤ 1.75) that commonly precipitates in sulfate-rich acid and metalliferous drainage as Fe(II) oxidises to Fe(III). It displays a high capacity to incorporate a range of elements through substitution of metal cations for Fe and anionic species for inner-sphere and outer-sphere sulfate groups, and surface adsorption. Precipitates from the base to top of sediment profiles immediately downstream from the historic Sunny Corner sulfide deposit are dominated by schwertmannite, indicating the stability of this mineral over decadal time frames in the low pH and high sulfate conditions. Various mineral characterisation methods, coupled with hydroxylamine hydrochloride based sequential selective extractions, reveal two forms of schwertmannite co-existing and in similar proportions throughout the profiles. The first form of schwertmannite has a high S/Fe ratio and the pattern of release of Cu, Pb, Zn and As relative to Fe indicates such trace elements are mostly adsorbed to outer-sphere sites. By contrast, the second and more crystalline schwertmannite has lower S/Fe ratios and requires higher concentrations of hydroxylamine hydrochloride to dissolve. The second schwertmannite displays substantial substitution of arsenate for sulfate, with As/(As + S) molar ratios ranging from 0.1 to 0.6, and substantially higher concentrations of trace elements. Sequential precipitation of the two schwertmannites from the AMD appears more likely than transformation of one form to the other. At sites such as Sunny Corner, pH neutralisation or removal of sulfate from the AMD stream may result in destabilisation of the schwertmannite and release of associated trace metals.

Assessing synergistic radar and radiometer capability in retrieving ice cloud microphysics based on hybrid Bayesian algorithms

Abstract. The 2017 National Academy of Sciences Decadal Survey highlighted several high-priority objectives to be pursued in the decadal timeframe, and the next-generation Cloud, Convection and Precipitation (CCP) observing system is thereby contemplated. In this study, we develop a suite of hybrid Bayesian algorithms to evaluate two CCP remote sensor candidates including a W-band cloud radar and a (sub)millimeter-wave radiometer with channels in the 118–880 GHz frequency range for capability in constraining ice cloud microphysical quantities. The algorithms address active-only, passive-only, and synergistic active–passive retrievals. The hybrid Bayesian algorithms combine the Bayesian Monte Carlo integration and optimization process to retrieve quantities with uncertainty estimates. The radar-only retrievals employ the optimal estimation methodology, while the radiometer-involved retrievals employ ensemble approaches to maximize the posterior probability density function. A priori information is obtained from the Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling (TC4) in situ data and CloudSat radar observations. End-to-end simulation experiments are conducted to evaluate the retrieval accuracies by comparing the retrieved parameters with known values. The experiment results suggest that the radiometer measurements possess high sensitivity to ice cloud particles with large water content. The radar-only retrievals demonstrate capability in reproducing ice water content profiles, but the performance in retrieving number concentration is poor. The synergistic observations enable improved pixel-level retrieval accuracies, and the improvements in ice water path retrievals are significant. The proposed retrieval algorithms could serve as alternative methods for exploring the synergistic active and passive concept, and the algorithm framework could be extended to the inclusion of other remote sensors to further assess the CCP observing system in future studies.

Characterizing unrest: A retrospective look at 20 years of gas emissions and seismicity at Iliamna Volcano, Alaska

Episodes of unrest are not as well documented as eruptions at most volcanoes globally. Iliamna is an andesitic stratovolcano in the Cook Inlet of Alaska that has experienced several episodes of unrest. Unrest in 1996 was previously studied. Here we present data from a minor period of unrest between 2002 and 2006, and a more significant period in 2012. None of the episodes led to an eruption. A dike intrusion was suggested for the 1996 unrest based on increases in gas emissions and seismic analysis. The 2002–2006 period was characterized by a slight increase in the rate of seismicity to 13 events per day and was particularly notable due to an increase in deep long period (DLP) seismic events between 15 and 37 km that were not observed at other times. This period also included one airborne gas measurement with and elevated CO2/SO2 molar ratio (17). In 2012, Iliamna unrest was characterized by significantly elevated gas emissions (up to 582 t/d SO2 and 1385 t/d CO2) and up to 49 located earthquakes per day (M > 0), and was remarkably similar to the 1996 unrest. Differences in the observed evolution of the CO2/SO2 gas ratio in 2012 (2.2–4) compared to that in 1996 (up to 18) suggests that no new deep magma was involved in 2012, however this does not preclude the movement of a previously intruded magma. A months-long increase in the SO2/H2S molar ratio from 8 to 17 during the peak of the activity could reflect a temperature increase on the order of 10–30 °C of the emitted gas. Compared to pre-eruptive unrest at other Cook Inlet volcanoes, Iliamna unrest in 2012 differed in that gas emissions were < 1500 t/d and seismicity lacked a rapidly escalating sequence of earthquakes and volcanic tremor, which is normally observed in the hours to days before eruption. The observation of DLPs, the fact that Iliamna produces moderately elevated degassing over decadal timeframes, and the persistent dominance of SO2 over H2S, suggests that periodic input of fresh magma from the lower crust sustains the shallower magmatic system over time, which sets it apart from neighboring volcanoes in the Cook Inlet that show minimal activity between eruptions. Various scenarios could explain why Iliamna did not proceed to eruption in 2012. Finally, we present criteria by which monitoring data may suggest an increased likelihood of eruption at Iliamna in the future.

Fire Management Effects on Long‐Term Gopher Tortoise Population Dynamics

ABSTRACTLong‐term datasets are required to understand the response of long‐lived organisms (e.g., gopher tortoises [Gopherus polyphemus]) to management actions, such as prescribed burns. Our objective was to estimate the effects of prescribed burning on gopher tortoise population dynamics over decadal time frames at Fort Stewart Army Reserve, southeastern Georgia, USA. We captured and marked adult tortoises from 1994–2020. In addition, since the early 1990s, managers at Fort Stewart collected spatial records of prescribed burns; thus, we could compare demography of the population to prescribed burning. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model (open population Jolly‐Seber model) to estimate population parameters (emigration and survival, immigration and recruitment, and adult abundance) and their relationships with years since burn. We observed opposing responses to years since burn at 2 sites: abundance and the probability of staying (survival plus not emigrating) increased within 1 site when it had been more recently burned (F zones), but abundance and probability of staying in a second site increased when it had been longer since the site was burned (E zones). Some of these effects were weak but indicative of different responses to burning between the sites. Although the sites experienced similar burning regimes, they differed substantially in other habitat features: the F zones had almost twice the tree cover and lower soil sand composition, indicating that tortoise population responses to burning depend on habitat context. We inferred that the primary mechanism for demographic responses to years since burn was likely emigrating adults, which indicates the need for more detailed movement data. Our results demonstrate that gopher tortoise population responses to prescribed burning are complex, context dependent, and primarily influenced by tortoise movements. Therefore, prescribed burn plans may best accommodate spatially dynamic tortoise populations when they create spatial heterogeneity in burn ages within the range of typical tortoise movements. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.

The decade after tomorrow: Estimation of discount rates from realistic temporal decisions over long time horizons

Understanding trade-offs across time is important in many areas of economics, but eliciting and estimating the parameters of discounting processes is difficult. We implement a novel stated choice approach to measuring discount rates that combines desirable elements of laboratory experiments and market behavior studies. We use a decadal time frame and exogenous variation in payment attributes to identify private consumption discount rate parameters that are consistent with the observed choice patterns. Imposing exponential discounting implies that people discount the future in a manner consistent with market interest rates, but we find substantial heterogeneity that varies with observable respondent characteristics. Relaxing the time consistent discounting assumption provides empirical evidence against declining discount rates.

PFAS concentrations in soils: Background levels versus contaminated sites

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are contaminants of critical concern due to their persistence, widespread distribution in the environment, and potential human-health impacts. In this work, published studies of PFAS concentrations in soils were compiled from the literature. These data were combined with results obtained from a large curated database of PFAS soil concentrations for contaminated sites. In aggregate, the compiled data set comprises >30,000 samples collected from >2500 sites distributed throughout the world. Data were collected for three types of sites— background sites, primary-source sites (fire-training areas, manufacturing plants), and secondary-source sites (biosolids application, irrigation water use). The aggregated soil-survey reports comprise samples collected from all continents, and from a large variety of locations in both urban and rural regions. PFAS were present in soil at almost every site tested. Low but measurable concentrations were observed even in remote regions far from potential PFOS sources. Concentrations reported for PFAS-contaminated sites were generally orders-of-magnitude greater than background levels, particularly for PFOS. Maximum reported PFOS concentrations ranged upwards of several hundred mg/kg. Analysis of depth profiles indicates significant retention of PFAS in the vadose zone over decadal timeframes and the occurrence of leaching to groundwater. It is noteworthy that soil concentrations reported for PFAS at contaminated sites are often orders-of-magnitude higher than typical groundwater concentrations. The results of this study demonstrate that PFAS are present in soils across the globe, and indicate that soil is a significant reservoir for PFAS. A critical question of concern is the long-term migration potential to surface water, groundwater, and the atmosphere. This warrants increased focus on the transport and fate behavior of PFAS in soil and the vadose zone, in regards to both research and site investigations.

Decadal dynamics of dry alpine meadows under nitrogen and phosphorus additions

Plants often exhibit positive responses to multiple nutrient additions, but generalities about the life form and traits of the most responsive species are few. Findings from long-term experiments in dry meadow alpine tundra in Colorado, USA, were used here to examine univariate and multivariate analyses of plant and plant trait responses. We found transient responses for community richness–biomass relationships, but a consistent increase in forb dominance in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) addition plots. The response seen in the N + P plots was not affected by additions of micronutrients or potassium. Multivariate analyses corroborate transient responses in community shifts over shorter-time scales, and directional shifts in N + P over two decades. Using species-level aboveground trait data when available, we found N + P may favor species with resource-acquisitive traits, regardless of their lifeform, as well as relatively tall grasses, regardless of their resource strategy. In the absence of N and P limitation but with the environmental constraints found in dry alpine meadows, plant richness and community structure continued to exhibit transient states for decadal time frames.

Kinetics of 99Tc speciation in aerobic soils

Technetium-99 is a significant and long-lived component of spent nuclear fuel relevant to long-term assessments of radioactive waste disposal. Whilst 99Tc behaviour in poorly aerated environments is well known, the long-term bioavailability in aerobic soils following direct deposition or transport to the surface is less well understood. This work addresses two questions: (i) to what extent do soil properties control 99Tc kinetics in aerobic soils and (ii) over what experimental timescales must 99Tc kinetics be measured to make reliable long-term predictions of impact in the terrestrial environment? Soil microcosms spiked with 99TcO4− were incubated for 2.5 years and 99Tc transformations were periodically monitored by a sequential extraction, which enabled quantification of the reaction kinetics. Reduction in soluble 99Tc was slow and followed a double exponential kinetic model including a fast component enhanced by low pH, a slow component controlled by pH and organic matter, and a persistently soluble 99Tc fraction. Complexation with soil humus was key to the progressive immobilisation of 99Tc. Evidence for slow transfer to an unidentified ‘sink’ was found, with estimated decadal timeframes. Our data suggest that short-term experiments may not reliably predict long-term 99Tc solubility in soils with low to moderate organic matter contents.

Measurements of natural ice nucleating particles in Beijing in the spring of 2017

The ice nucleating particles (INPs) in the ambient air in Beijing during the spring of 2017 were observed using an improved 5-L version of Bigg's mixing cloud chamber. The characteristics of the diurnal INPs concentrations are analyzed and compared with measurements made in 1963, 1995 and 1996. The particle number size distribution was also measured simultaneously. The correlation between the concentration of INPs and the aerosol number concentration in different size ranges is discussed. Moreover, the relationship between the concentration of INPs and different meteorological factors, such as wind speed, air pressure, temperature, humidity and weather conditions, are analyzed.From the results of observation, in general, the concentrations of INPs at −20 °C, −25 °C and −30 °C temperatures trend with each other on a day to day basis, although there are slight differences in some cases at −20 °C. As the activation temperatures decrease by 5 °C, the concentration of INPs increases by about one order of magnitude. The concentration of INPs increases significantly when air pollution is severe, but the specific relationship between INPs and pollution needed to be verified in the follow-up work, which is related to the source of pollution and the aerosol components. Compared with historical experimental data, interpreting trends using short sampling periods in individual years over decadal time frames, the average concentrations of INPs in Beijing increased by approximately 15 times from 1963 to 1996, but in the past 20 years, the concentration of INPs has decreased significantly. For aerosols with particle size that exceeds 0.5 μm, the correlation coefficient between aerosol number concentration and INPs increases significantly with increasing aerosol particle size; however, it tends to stabilize at approximately 0.6 for aerosol particles larger than approximately 2 μm. A comparison with meteorological parameters shows that the concentration of INPs is inversely correlated with wind speed, and displays a positive correlation with relative humidity. These results indicate that conditions that favor dispersion lead to reduced concentrations of INPs.

Mediterranean Sea Hydrographic Atlas: towards optimal data analysis by including time-dependent statistical parameters

Abstract. The goal of the present work is to provide the scientific community with a high-resolution atlas of temperature and salinity for the Mediterranean Sea based on the most recent datasets available and contribute to the studies of the long-term variability in the region. Data from the pan-European marine data infrastructure SeaDataNet were used, the most complete and, to our best knowledge, best quality dataset for the Mediterranean Sea as of today. The dataset is based on in situ measurements acquired between 1900 and 2015. The atlas consists of horizontal gridded fields produced by the Data-Interpolating Variational Analysis, in which unevenly spatial distributed measurements were interpolated onto a 1∕8° × 1∕8° regular grid on 31 depth levels. Seven different types of climatological fields were prepared with different temporal integration of observations. Monthly, seasonal and annual climatological fields have been calculated for all the available years, seasonal to annual climatologies for overlapping decades and specific periods. The seasonal and decadal time frames have been chosen in accordance with the regional variability and in coherence with atmospheric indices. The decadal and specific-period analysis was not extended to monthly resolution due to the lack of data, especially for the salinity. The Data-Interpolating Variational Analysis software has been used in the Mediterranean region for the SeaDataNet and its predecessor Medar/Medatlas Climatologies. In the present study, a more advanced optimization of the analysis parameters was performed in order to produce more detailed results. The past and present states of the Mediterranean region have been extensively studied and documented in a series of publications. The purpose of this atlas is to contribute to these climatological studies and get a better understanding of the variability on timescales from months to decades and longer. Our gridded fields provide a valuable complementary source of knowledge in regions where measurements are scarce, especially in critical areas of interest such as the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) regions and subregions. The dataset used for the preparation of the atlas is available from https://doi.org/10.12770/8c3bd19b-9687-429c-a232-48b10478581c.The climatologies in netCDF are available at the following sources: annual climatology (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1146976), seasonal climatology for 57 running decades (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1146938), seasonal climatology (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1146953), annual climatology for 57 running decades (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1146957), seasonal climatology for six periods (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1146966), annual climatology for six periods (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1146970), monthly climatology (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1146974).

Edyn: Dynamic Signaling of Changes to Forests Using Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Charts

Remote detection of forest disturbance remains a key area of interest for scientists and land managers. Subtle disturbances such as drought, disease, insect activity, and thinning harvests have a significant impact on carbon budgeting and forest productivity, but current change detection algorithms struggle to accurately identify them, especially over decadal timeframes. We introduce an algorithm called Edyn, which inputs a time series of residuals from harmonic regression into a control chart to signal low-magnitude, consistent deviations from the curve as disturbances. After signaling, Edyn retrains a new baseline curve. We compared Edyn with its parent algorithm (EWMACD—Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Change Detection) on over 3500 visually interpreted Landsat pixels from across the contiguous USA, with reference data for timing and type of disturbance. For disturbed forested pixels, Edyn had a mean per-pixel commission error of 31.1% and omission error of 70.0%, while commission and omission errors for EWMACD were 39.9% and 65.2%, respectively. Edyn had significantly less overall error than EWMACD (F1 = 0.19 versus F1 = 0.13). These patterns generally held for all of the reference data, including a direct comparison to other contemporary change detection algorithms, wherein Edyn and EWMACD were found to have lower omission error rates for a category of subtle changes over long periods.

Soil trace element changes during a phytoremediation trial with willows in southern Québec, Canada

ABSTRACTThis study determined the changes in trace elements (TE) (As, Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn) chemistry in the soils of a willow (“Fish Creek” – Salix purpurea, SV1 – Salix x dasyclados and SX67 – Salix miyabeana) plantation growing under a cold climate during a three-year trial. The soil HNO3-extractable and H2O-soluble TE concentrations and pools significantly decreased under most cultivars (Fish, SX67). Yet, TE changes showed inconsistent patterns and localized soil TE increases (Ni, Pb) were measured. Temporal changes in soil TE were also detected in control plots and sometimes exceeded changes in planted plots. Discrepancies existed between the amount of soil TE change and the amount of TE uptake by willows, except for Cd and Zn. Phytoremediation with willows could reduce soil Cd and Zn within a decadal timeframe indicating that they can be remediated by willows in moderately contaminated soils. However, the time needed to reduce soil As, Cu, Ni and Pb was too long to be efficient. We submit that soil leaching contributed to the TE decrease in controls and the TE discrepancies, and that the plantation could have secondary effects such as the accelerated leaching of soil TE.