Debt Yields Research Articles

The term structure of economic management rate under the parameter analysis of the estimation model based on common differential equation

Abstract To reflect the country's economic growth, inflation and the implementation of monetary policies. Based on the monthly data of national debt yield from January 2015 to December 2019, these data are divided into 1 year to 30 years according to the maturity period, and the principal component analysis of the term structure of interest rate from 2012 to 2017 shows that the factors affecting the change of term structure of interest rate include level factor, skew factor and curve factor. The variance contribution rates of these factors to the variation of interest rate term structure curve are 82.2002%, 16.9948% and 0.6283% respectively. The horizontal factor represents the position of the term structure of interest rate, the skew factor represents the degree of skew of the term structure of interest rate, and the curve factor determines the interest rate.

US QE and the Indian Bond Market.

This paper examines the long- and short-run spillover effects of US quantitative easing (QE) on the benchmark 10-year Indian government bond (IGB) yield by Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing co-integration approach using monthly data from September 2008 to June 2019. The results show that a 10%-point rise in US QE led to a 4 bp rise in yields. The counterfactual analysis shows that volatility of the yields would have been less without the QE. During the episodes of QE, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had to alter its policy rate and engage in open-market operations (OMOs) to simultaneously maintain liquidity in the system and reduce the volatility of interest rates. Spillover on the debt yield leads to mispricing of assets and partial loss of the monetary-policy autonomy of the RBI.

Impact of External Sector Indicators on Sovereign Debt Yield Spread: Case of Morocco

Impact of External Sector Indicators on Sovereign Debt Yield Spread: Case of Morocco

Does a Clarke-Groves type tax prevent free riding when implementing Eurobonds?

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to propose a Clarke-Groves Tax (CGT) type as a remedy to the criticism that the implementation of Eurobonds has raised regarding the risk of undermining fiscal discipline. In this model, a government minimizes its sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio in a given period and decides whether to join a common sovereign debt club. In doing so, it exposes itself to a positive or negative tax burden while benefiting from the liquidity premium involved in creating a secure asset. The authors found that the introduction of this tax may prevent free riding behaviours if Eurobonds were to be implemented. To illustrate this, the authors provide some numerical simulations for the Eurozone.Design/methodology/approachIn the model presented, a government which optimizes a social utility function decides whether to join the common debt club.FindingsThe adoption of the proposed tax could prevent free-riding behaviours and, therefore, encourages participation by those countries with lower debt levels that would have not otherwise taken part in this common debt mechanism. Under certain circumstances, we can expect the utility of all members of this club to improve. The bias in the distribution of gains might be mitigated by regulating the tax rule determining the magnitude of payment/reward. The proportion of the liquidity premium, arising from the implementation of a sovereign safe asset, has a decisive impact on the degree of the governments’ utility enhancement.Research limitations/implicationsThe adoption of a CGT would require Eurobonds club members to reach an agreement on “the” theoretical model for determining the sovereign debt yield. One of the limitations of this model is considering the debt-to-GDP ratio as the sole determinant of public debt yields. Moreover, the authors assumed the relationship between the debt-to-GDP ratio and funding costs to be identical for all countries. Any progress in the implementation of the proposed transfer scheme would require a more realistic and in-depth analysis.Practical implicationsA new fiscal rule based on compensating countries with lower public debt levels could be a way to mitigate free-riding problems if a Eurobond mechanism is to be established.Originality/valueThis fiscal rule has not been proposed or analysed before in a context such as that considered by this paper.

MANAGING FOR RATINGS: REAL EFFECTS OF A CORPORATE RATINGS CRITERIA CHANGE

AbstractWe exploit a criteria change by Standard & Poor's (S&P) to examine the real effects of a credit ratings change. Using a recalibration by S&P, unrelated to firms’ fundamentals, as a quasi‐natural experiment we analyze the impact of a ratings upgrade on the issuance activity, investment, cash holdings, and payout policy of companies. Our findings suggest upgraded firms subsequently issue more debt relative to equity, enjoy lower debt yields, and increase their investment rate and share repurchases. We find limited evidence that upgraded firms decrease their cash holdings. Our results support the view that credit ratings have a real effect on corporations.

Sovereign Default and the Decline in Interest Rates

Sovereign debt yields have declined dramatically over the last half-century. Standard explanations, including aging populations and increases in asset demand from abroad, encounter difficulties when confronted with the full range of evidence. We propose an explanation based on a decline in inflation and default risk, which we argue is more consistent with the long-run nature of the interest rate decline. We show that a model with investment, inventory storage, and sovereign default captures the decline in interest rates, the stability of equity valuation ratios, and the recent reduction in investment and output growth coinciding with the binding zero lower bound.

Transmission Channels of Central Bank Asset Purchases in the Irish Economy

The European Central Bank (ECB) engaged in an expanded asset purchase programme (APP) from 2014 to 2018 to help achieve their primary objective of price stability. Total assets purchased over this period was over €2.5 trillion and new net purchases ended in December 2018. This paper identifies whether the ECB’s APP in Ireland operated through the portfolio rebalancing channel, the signalling channel or the lending channel. It presents a quantitative descriptive analysis of some key Irish data sets in the 2014–2018 period and uses time-series visualisation and trend analysis to identify trends and correlations. There are a number of preliminary findings. First, much downward pressure on sovereign debt yields and spreads had occurred before the APP began due to previous accommodative monetary policy and the signalling channel. Second, the corporate-sector purchase programme (CSPP) did impact on targeted bonds and may have had spill overs to non-targeted bonds. Third, the APP did not lead to much increased lending to the SME sector. Fourth, while households did engage in traditional portfolio rebalancing, Irish banks did not and were perhaps more motivated to meet their capital requirements and manage their level of reserves. This is a first step towards understanding the transmission channels of ECB policy in Ireland and more work needs to be done to detangle the transmission of the most recent APP from other factors and consider these findings in the context of theoretical models. Such work is important to help inform policy makers on enhancing the transmission mechanism to the Irish economy of the recently launched new ECB asset purchase programme from November 2019.

Capital Structure Composition and Financial Performance of Food and Beverage Firms in Nigeria

The study examined capital structure composition and Financial performance of Food and Beverage firms using Secondary data obtained from Nigeria stock exchange. Leverage composition; Short term debt to total Asset, Long Term debt to total asset and debt-equity ratio were regressed against market performance proxies earnings yield, price/earnings ratio and Tobin Q. Variables were subjected to Hausmann test for selection of appropriate model. Findings indicate Significant positive relationship between short term debt over total asset ratio and Tobin Q, Long term debt to total asset relate significantly positively with Tobin Q and earnings yield Also, there is Significant positive relationship between Debt Equity ratio and Earnings yield. We also found significant negative relationships between Short term debt and Earnings yield, Long term debt and P/E ratio, and between Debt Equity ratio and Tobin Q. Additionally, we found insignificant negative relationship between Short term debt and Price earnings ratio and between Debt equity ratio and P/E ratio. Also, a shift in capital structure composition from STD/TA to LTD/TA has a positive effect on TBQ which is statistically significant and a Shift from LTD/TA to STD/TA still maintains an equally positive effect on TBQ. However, it is more rewarding for the firm to shift to more long-term debt in its capital structure as it has higher effect on TBQ. A shift from TD/TA to LTD/TA has a significant positive effect on Earnings Yield and a shift from LTD/TA to STD/TA has a positive insignificant effect on EY. It will be rewarding for the firms to increase their earnings yield by shifting from STD to LTD. Based on findings, we conclude different compositions of leverage have different effects on market valuation of firms. We recommend Firms should optimally use LTD to increase market valuation. And should also examine capital structure composition to ascertain which of the combination maximises firm value Keywords: Capital Structure Composition, Tobin Q, Earnings Yield, Debt/Equity ratio, Price Earnings Ratio DOI : 10.7176/EJBM/11-24-01 Publication date : August 31 st 2019

Are contingent convertibles going-concern capital?

Contingent convertibles (CoCos) are intended to either convert to new equity or be written down prior to failure while a bank is a going-concern. Yet, in the first actual test case, CoCos never converted before its bank failed. We develop a model that predicts that CoCos lead to less (more) extreme stock returns and have yields greater than (similar to) standard subordinated debt yields if investors do (do not) expect them to convert or be written down prior to failure. These predictions are tested using data on CoCos issued by European banks during 2011 to 2017. We find evidence that equity conversion CoCos reduce stock return variance and several other measures of downside risk, consistent with the perception that they are going-concern capital. However, we also provide event study evidence that recent regulatory actions reduced the CoCo–subordinated debt yield spread, which indicates a diminished investor belief that CoCos are going-concern capital.

Mandatory Convertible Notes as a Sustainable Corporate Finance Instrument

Debt securities are often an efficient and inexpensive resource to finance the balance sheet of companies; however, one of the causes of the global financial crisis was the excessive leverage taken by companies. Hybrid capital instruments share characteristics of equity and debt, and allow companies to finance its balance sheet in a more sustainable way by reducing leverage, but tend to increase its overall cost of capital. Mandatory convertible notes (MCNs) are hybrid financing instruments that are very close to equity; rating agencies assign them a high equity component and are commonly treated as equity by accounting standards. Despite the high nominal coupon that MCNs seem to pay in some cases, a deeper analysis shows that the cost of issuing MCNs can be similar and even lower than the cost of issuing senior debt. This research performs an empirical study of the implicit cost of the MCNs issued between 2010 and 2018. The study shows the relationship between the implicit yield of MCNs, the senior debt yield, and the convertible arbitrage investors. MCNs can be a sustainable capital alternative that offers a reasonable cost not only for high-yield companies but also for well-established investment grade issuers. The access to efficient and not very expensive capital to finance the balance sheet of companies can promote sustainable growth, industrialization, and innovation.

Determinants of credit spreads in hotel CMBS loans

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the determinants of credit spreads in hotel loans securitized into commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) between 2010 and 2015.Design/methodology/approachThe sample represents 1,579 US hotel fixed interest rate whole loans with an aggregate mortgage value of $26.6bn at loan origination. The relationship between credit spreads and property, loan and market characteristic is examined via multiple regression analysis. Additionally, the method of 2-stage least squares is used to control for endogeneity bias and identify the effect of the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio on credit spreads.FindingsThe multiple regression models explain 80 per cent of the variation in credit spreads and show a significant association of credit spreads with hotel and loan characteristics and market conditions. The findings indicate the debt coverage ratio to be the most important predictor of credit spreads followed by the loan maturity term, implied capitalization rate, LTV and yield curve. The results show the debt yield premium to be a stronger predictor of credit spreads than the debt yield ratio. The spread between the debt yield ratio and mortgage interest rate could be used in future research as an instrumental variable to identify the effect of the LTV on credit spreads.Research limitations/implicationsThis study is limited to the CMBS market and the period after the financial crisis. Additional limitations include sample selection bias, exclusion of multi-property loans and variable interest rate loans.Practical implicationsInterest rate increases in an expanding economy would likely increase the cost of borrowing for hotel owners leading to higher debt service payments and lower profitability. If an increase in interest rates is offset by a decline in credit spreads, hotel owners will still benefit from the ensuing stability in borrowing interest rates. The evidence also suggests that CMBS lenders favor select service and extended stay hotels. Owners and operators of these efficient and profitable hotels will likely obtain loans with lower credit spreads given their lower risk of default.Originality/valueThe current study provides evidence on the effects of loan and property characteristics in the pricing of loan risk and serves to inform CMBS market participants about the factors that drive credit spreads in hotel mortgage loans.

Debt and Insolvency

Legal rules play a powerful but understudied role in security design. This article presents two new theoretical results about the design of debt contracts. The results derive from the premise that firms must avoid legal insolvency when issuing new debt because insolvency at issuance would trigger severe operational limitations on the issuer. I first show that legal insolvency limits debt capacity, limiting the amount of money that a firm can raise with debt. I next show that legal insolvency limits the yield that firms can promise new creditors, helping to explain why there is no market for ultra-high-yield new issue debt. The article’s results demonstrate that legal insolvency probably has important – if largely unnoticed – effects in limiting debt capacity and debt yields. More generally, the article illustrates the usefulness of better understanding legal solvency requirements, a legal mechanism that has received too little attention in the understanding of debt and security design.

Predicting the Likelihood of Lodging CMBS Loan Default

This study investigates whether the traditional underwriting loan metrics, loan-to-value (LTV), debt coverage ratio (DSCR), and debt yield (DY) ratio, can predict lodging commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) loan defaults. Using a data set of 5,266 fixed-rate lodging whole loans that were securitized into CMBS between 1996 and 2015, the results of the study provide evidence of significant relationships between all three metrics and the likelihood of default. The LTV varies positively with default, while the DSCR and DY are negatively related to default. These results hold for a subsample analysis of loans originated prior to the global financial crisis (GFC). Finally, the results show the DY spreads to be adequate proxies for the DY ratio.

On International Integration of Emerging Sovereign Bond Markets

The paper investigates the international integration of EM sovereign dollar-denominatedand local-currency bond markets. Factor analysis is used to examine movements insovereign bond yields and common sources of yield variation. The results suggest that EMdollar-denominated sovereign debt markets are highly integrated; a single common factorthat is highly correlated with US and EU interest rates explains, on average, about 80percent of the total variability in yields. EM sovereign local currency bond markets are notas internationally integrated, and three common factors explain about 74 percent of thetotal variability. But a factor highly correlated with US and EU interest rates still explains63 percent of the yield variation accounted for by common factors. That said, there issome diversity among EM countries in the importance of common factors in affectingsovereign debt yields.

On International Integration of Emerging Sovereign Bond Markets

The paper investigates the international integration of EM sovereign dollar-denominated and local-currency bond markets. Factor analysis is used to examine movements in sovereign bond yields and common sources of yield variation. The results suggest that EM dollar-denominated sovereign debt markets are highly integrated; a single common factor that is highly correlated with US and EU interest rates explains, on average, about 80 percent of the total variability in yields. EM sovereign local currency bond markets are not as internationally integrated, and three common factors explain about 74 percent of the total variability. But a factor highly correlated with US and EU interest rates still explains 63 percent of the yield variation accounted for by common factors. That said, there is some diversity among EM countries in the importance of common factors in affecting sovereign debt yields.

Country and industry effects in corporate bond spreads in emerging markets

We use corporate bond data from firms belonging to 13 emerging markets and eight industries from 2007 to 2013 to study whether and how country and industry effects determine the spread between their yield and the respective sovereign debt yield. Existing models ignore country and industry effects as they implicitly assume that firm, bond issues, local, and global factors capture these effects. We find that country and, especially, industry effects are significant in explaining corporate bond spreads. From a practitioner's point of view, our results are important as ignoring country and industry effects causes bonds to be mispriced in emerging markets, particularly in the energy, basic materials, and communications and technology sectors. We also find country effects for bonds from firms from Chile, Indonesia, and the Philippines, although with lower significance levels. Finally, and consistent with other recent papers, we also find violations of the sovereign ceiling rule.

Monitoring Financial Intermediaries with Subordinated Debt: A Dynamic Signal Model for Bank Risk

Dynamic Monitoring of Financial Intermediaries with Subordinated Debt by Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera University of California, Riverside Department of Economics Riverside, CA 92521 e-mail: gloria.gonzalez@ucr.edu phone: (951) 827 1470 fax: (951) 827 5685 David Nickerson Colorado State University Departments of Economics and Finance Fort Collins, CO 80523-1771 e-mail: david.nickerson@colostate.edu phone: (970) 491 5249

How much can illiquidity affect corporate debt yield spread?

We present a structural method for measuring the upper bound for the illiquidity risk of liabilities issued by a levered firm. The method calculates the upper bound of illiquidity spread of a corporate bond given its duration and the issuing firm’s asset risk and leverage ratio. Consistent with the empirical literature the illiquidity spread is positively related to the issuing firm’s asset risk and leverage ratio and the illiquidity component increases with a bond’s credit quality. The term structure of illiquidity spread has a humped shape, where its maximum level depends on the firm’s leverage ratio. Finally, we demonstrate how the method’s implied restricted trading period can be used as a measure for illiquidity in the bonds’ market.

Determining the EUR/USD exchange rate with U.S. and German government bond yields in the post-crisis period

This research shows how U.S. and German government bond yields can determine the EUR/USD exchange rate in the short run. After presenting the discussion on fundamental, technical and microstructure approach exchange rate determination models, a conclusion is made that out of the components of fundamental models the interest rates could be the best determinants for explaining exchange rate fluctuations in the short term. For the research the mostly traded currency pair, the EUR/USD, was chosen and 2-year, 10-year U.S. and German government bond yields were selected as determinants of the exchange rate. After performing the linear regression procedure it has shown that the model can determine 5 per cent of the daily EUR/USD fluctuations with a change in 2-year U.S. government debt yield being the greatest determinant in the model. It affects the exchange rate as it is stated in the uncovered interest rate parity model – when the yield increases, the USD declines against the euro and vice versa. Another finding is that an increase in the German 10-year government bond yield increases the price of the euro and the increase in the U.S. 10-year debt yield leads to an appreciation of the USD.

How Much Illiquidity Affects Corporate Debt Yield Spread?

We present a structural method for measuring the upper bound for the illiquidity risk of liabilities issued by a levered firm. The method calculates the upper bound of illiquidity spread of a corporate bond given its duration and the issuing firm’s asset risk and leverage ratio. Consistent with the empirical literature the illiquidity spread is positively related to the issuing firm’s asset risk and leverage ratio and the illiquidity component increases with a bond’s credit quality. The term structure of illiquidity spread has a humped shape, where its maximum level depends on the firm's leverage ratio. Finally, we demonstrate how the method’s implied restricted trading period can be used as a measure for illiquidity in the bonds’ market.