Foreign Currency Debt Research Articles

Carry Trades and FX Risk Buffers: Foreign Currency Debt of Emerging Market Firms

Abstract The surge in foreign currency (FC) corporate debt in emerging economies has sparked concerns about macroeconomic stability, heightened by speculation about non-financial firms engaging in carry trades. Using firm-level data on the currency denomination of both assets and liabilities, we find evidence of firms' carry trades: firms save in local currency liquid assets and earn higher interest income after issuing short-term FC debt. They also set aside FC liquid assets as FX risk buffers. A large degree of heterogeneity in incentives is observed. Notably, listed firms participate more in carry trades and allocate less FX risk buffers than non-listed firms.

Regulating Carry Trades: Evidence from Foreign Currency Borrowing of Corporations in India

Abstract We establish that macroprudential controls limiting capital flows can curb risks arising from foreign currency borrowing by corporates in emerging markets. Firm-level data show that Indian firms tend to issue more foreign currency debt when the interest rate differential between India and the United States is higher. This “carry trade” relationship, however, breaks down once regulators institute more stringent interest rate caps on borrowing; in response, riskier borrowers cut issuance most. Prior to adoption of this macroprudential measure, stock price exposure of issuers to currency risk rises after issuance, as witnessed during the “taper tantrum” episode of 2013; this source of vulnerability is nullified by the measure, as confirmed during the October 2018 oil price shock and the COVID-19 outbreak. We find no evidence of the policy’s efficacy being undermined by leakage or regulatory arbitrage.

Does derivative usage boost firm value in an economy with controls? Evidence from India

AbstractThe role of derivatives on firm valuation has recently become a subject of intense debate for emerging markets where there is greater asset price volatility, illiquidity, and the absence of common regulations and accounting standards. Given the lack of data availability, disclosure inconsistency and distinctive regulatory requirements for Indian firms, we assess the impact of corporate hedging via derivative use on the performance of BSE-100 non-financial firms over the period 2010–2017. Our results from keywords-based hand-collected derivative usage data show that all types of derivatives, except rate derivatives, have a significant and positive impact on firm value through channels of reduced earnings volatility and increased leverage with tax benefits. Firms with greater leverage tend to benefit from the use of rate derivatives. Still, among those highly leveraged firms, the ones who experience high earnings volatility are unable to benefit from rate derivatives. Besides, hedge accounting benefits firms in dealing with earnings volatility when they have higher derivatives exposure. As capital controls on international flows can limit the use of derivatives, we show that firms with currency risk exposure in terms of long-term foreign currency debt do benefit from rate derivatives. Our results are also robust with a matched sample for derivative users and non-users. Overall, we conclude that easing regulatory controls on derivatives dealings can be beneficial for firms in growing emerging economies.

Original sin: Fiscal rules and government debt in foreign currency in developing countries

Developing economies often borrow abroad in foreign currency, which exposes them to the problem of “original sin.” Although the literature on the issue is relatively extensive, there is limited discussion about the role of fiscal frameworks, such as fiscal rules, in addressing original sin. Using a panel of 59 developing countries from 1990-2020 and applying the entropy balancing method, this study reveals that fiscal rules play a crucial role in reducing government debt in foreign currency, and that the effects are statistically and economically significant and robust. Furthermore, we find that the effectiveness of fiscal rules in curbing original sin is enhanced by factors such as the strengthening of the rule itself, improved fiscal discipline before the reform’s adoption, financial development, financial openness, exchange rate flexibility, the level of economic development, and sound institutions. Finally, transmission channels analysis reveals that the effect of fiscal rules on original sin is driven by fiscal and monetary policy credibility.

DOMESTIC ORIGINAL SIN OF SOVEREIGN DEBT IN TÜRKİYE

The study analyzes the original sin of sovereign debt in Türkiye with a focus on domestic original sin. Eichengreen and Hausmann (1999) define original sin as the inability of a country to borrow in its own currency in the international market, while the issuance of foreign currency debt in the domestic market is defined as domestic original sin (Eichengreen, Hausmann, and Panizza, 2003). In this context, the structure of the debt portfolio was evaluated based on the indicators developed by Eichengreen, et al. (2003) and its simplified version widely used in the literature. Based on the analysis of the sovereign debt portfolio, it has been concluded that although the debt stock to GDP ratio is relatively low in Türkiye, the domestic original sin has reached historically high levels and currency mismatch is significant.

Assessing the Impact of US Monetary Policy on Foreign Currency Debt and Credit Growth in Emerging Markets During the COVID-19 Pandemic”

ABSTRACT This paper analyses the impact of US monetary policy on external debt and credit growth in emerging market economies (EMEs) during the COVID-19 period. Using quarterly data from 13 EMEs and employing a panel autoregressive methodology, the study reveals the following key findings: First, global monetary policy plays a vital role in determining external debt and credit availability in EMEs during the COVID-19 period. Second, the global monetary expansion during the COVID-19 crisis led to the accumulation of external debt through the risk-taking channel of the exchange rate. Third, weak domestic monetary policy transmission hinders the stabilization of credit growth. The empirical findings suggest that the central bankers to choose an optimum policy mix to stabilize the economy during crisis.

Exchange rates, invoicing currencies and the margins of exports

We examine effects of currency depreciation on South Korean exporting firms, taking into account invoicing currencies in international trade. Such effects on real exports (intensive margin) and the probability of exporting (extensive margin) are decomposed into invoice-currency adjusted improved price competitiveness, increased costs of imported inputs, and increased burden of foreign-currency debts. We find strong evidence that currency depreciation affects both margins through price competitiveness, and invoice currencies play an important role in explaining such effects. However, evidence for impacts of currency depreciation via the costs of imported inputs and the burden of foreign-currency debt channel is weak.

Local Currency Bond Markets in Africa: Resilience and Subordination

ABSTRACTThis article examines the development and implications of local currency bond markets (LCBMs) in African countries in the context of international financial subordination (IFS). Despite the promotion of LCBMs as a solution to debt vulnerability, there is a dearth of research that offers a systematic empirical examination of their actual benefits along with conceptual explanations as to when and why such benefits may or may not materialize. This is especially true for countries at the bottom of the global economic hierarchy. To explore how the subordination in global production and financial systems shapes LCBM development, the article offers an empirical analysis of selected African countries that combines interviews with policy makers, officials and experts with statistical data. The findings suggest that while LCBMs offer some benefits, such as mitigating risks associated with foreign currency debt, their potential is limited by the structural processes created by IFS, such as their dependence on the global financial cycle, the relatively higher costs of this debt and the sustained constraint on macroeconomic policy making. However, there are also domestic factors which shape how these structural constraints are mediated in the context of LCBM development — in particular, historically developed financial structures of developing countries, the political economy of the state and the structure of production. This study thus contributes to the debate about the developmental benefits of domestic debt market development and the emerging research agenda on IFS.

Original sin and the great depression

Do exchange rate movements matter for how markets price foreign currency denominated sovereign bonds? High-frequency bond price data from 1931 show that depreciation against the dollar/gold was associated with elevated risk premia on US dollar/gold public debt. We use a theoretical model to illustrate how foreign currency debt influences exchange rate policy and foreign currency bond prices. We use these theoretical results, the timing of sterling's devaluation in September 1931, and historically determined fundamentals to identify the impact of exchange rate policy on hard-currency bond yields in the Great Depression.

Situación macrofinanciera de Turquía

RationaleTürkiye is identified annually as a material country for the Spanish and euro area banking systems. Moreover, both are linked to Türkiye by major trade and financial flows. It is therefore important to monitor the country’s macro-financial situation and main weaknesses.Takeaways•The Turkish economy has continued to post very high, albeit slowing, inflation rates since late 2022, and economic activity has slowed, against a background of sizeable external financing needs, foreign currency debt and low international reserves.•Fiscal policy kept the country’s accounts healthy in 2022, although a significant downturn is expected in 2023. In terms of monetary policy, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut the policy interest rate again in February, with the real interest rate standing at -35.2% in April.•The banking system remains healthy, although some indicators have worsened. Furthermore, to keep credit growth in check and encourage more widespread use of the lira in the financial system, the macroprudential and regulatory measures introduced in 2021 and 2022 remained in place and were strengthened.

The Effect of Capital Structure in The Context of Foreign Financing on The Financial Performance

This study examines the effect of capital structure in the context of foreign financing on the financial performance of energy sector companies in Indonesia from 2018 to 2021. The independent variables used in this study are the capital structure proxied by the debt-to-equity ratio (DER), debt in foreign currency (FD), and debt in the foreign currency local (DD). The dependent variable used in this study is the company's financial performance as measured by Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE). The control variables used in this study are Growth and Size. The type of data used in this study is panel data with a total of 152 observations, where the number of companies used is 38 companies and the number of periods is four years. In analyzing the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable, testing is used Feasible Generalized Least Square. They were then tested in this study using Stata 14 software. This study's test results indicate a negative effect debt to equity ratio on financial performance as measured by ROA and ROE. Then the results of this test show a positive effect of debt in foreign currency on financial performance as measured by ROA and ROE. However, in testing the effect of debt in local currency, it was found that there was no significant effect on the company's financial performance.

A measurement of dollarization

Purpose- Dollarization refers to the use of foreign currency instead of domestic currency by citizens as a result of macroeconomic instabilities. Generally, due to the instability caused by inflation, the local currency loses its functions as a unit of account, a store of value, and in the last stage, a medium of exchange. Partial dollarization is the fulfillment of any of the three functions of money by a foreign currency. The purpose of this study is to measure the dollarization level of the Turkish economy between 2000 and 2022 (a 23-year period). This study employs the most comprehensive definition of portfolios of Turkish Lira and foreign currency to measure the degree of asset and liability dollarization. This study measures the dollarization degree of the Turkish economy by using the composite dollarization index developed by Reinhart et al., (2003). Methodology- The composite dollarization index based on the definition by Reinhart et al., 2003, has two components; asset dollarization and liability dollarization. This study measures the level of dollarization by using Reinhart's definition of the Turkish economy between 2000 and 2022. We construct the asset dollarization as a ratio of the foreign currency portfolio to the total portfolio. Liability dollarization is defined as the sum of the ratio of foreign currency credit to the total credit, the ratio of the domestic debt in foreign currency to the total domestic debt, and the ratio of total external debt to the GDP. The composite dollarization index is the sum of asset dollarization and liability dollarization. Findings- The dollarization in bank deposits rose to 57%in 2001 and then dropped to 27% in 2010. The dollarization in bank deposits has started to rise again since 2013. The increase in dollarization in bank deposits has accelerated since 2021. It reached 70% by the middle of 2022. Asset dollarization has a similar path to the dollarization in bank deposits. The level of the asset dollarization is generally lower than the level of the deposit dollarization for all years examined. The liability dollarization also follows a similar path. As the degree of asset dollarization increases, the degree of liability dollarization also increases. Finally, the composite dollarization index has been rapidly increasing since 2010. Conclusion- As discussed extensively in the literature, the degree of dollarization is an important indicator of a healthy economy. The literature supports that there is a strong link between the degree of dollarization and macroeconomic indicators. When economic instabilities are on the screen, the use of a stable foreign currency instead of domestic currency increases. Some previous studies measured the dollarization by considering only asset dollarization or only liability dollarization may have deficiencies in the comprehensive definition of dollarization. Therefore, a comprehensive measurement of dollarization should better consider both the assets and liabilities of the balance sheets. The empirical findings of this study indicate that the degree of dollarization has been increasing since 2013 and the rate of increase accelerated especially after 2021 based on the comprehensive dollarization index constructed. Keywords: Dollarization, Turkish economy, composite dollarization index, inflation, macroeconomic instabilities JEL Codes: E31, F31, G01

Situación macrofinanciera de Turquía

Rationale Turkey is identified annually as a material country for the Spanish and euro area banking systems. Moreover, Turkey and Spain are linked by major trade and financial flows. It is therefore important to monitor the country’s macro-financial situation and main weaknesses. Takeaways The Turkish economy continued to post very high inflation rates at end-2022, while economic activity began to slow in Q3, following its strong previous momentum. All of this in the context of sizeable external financing needs, foreign currency debt and low international reserves. Fiscal policy performed better than expected, and the country’s accounts remain healthy. In terms of monetary policy, in August the Turkish central bank resumed the process of reducing the policy interest rate initiated a year earlier, with the real interest rate standing at -75.5% in November. Nonetheless, macroprudential and regulatory measures were implemented to keep credit growth in check and encourage only lending to certain productive sectors. Meanwhile, the banking sector’s balance sheets remain relatively healthy, although some indicators have worsened.

АНАЛІЗ ДЕРЖАВНОГО БОРГУ УКРАЇНИ ЗА 2022 РІК

The article analyzes the state of Ukraine's national debt in 2022 in the context of the impact of the military conflict with Russia on the country's economy. The dynamics of external and internal debt, the structure of debt by sources and currencies, as well as the problems associated with the decrease in Ukraine's credit rating and dependence on external financing are considered. Its impact on the overall picture of Ukraine's national debt at the present stage is presented and examined, as well as its impact on the country's economy. The sources of borrowing are described, including Eurobond loans and loans from international financial corporations. Graphically presented are the external state and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine, funding sources, and the structure of external borrowing and grants received since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. The agreements of the Government with international partners and memoranda of understanding regarding the suspension of debt payments with international partners in the G7 and Paris Club are considered. A comparison has been made with the 2021 figures of the total amount of Ukraine's state and state-guaranteed debt, as well as a comparison of the domestic state debt and the external state debt, which consists of loans from international financial organizations and Eurobonds. The main source of financing for the state budget in 2022 has been analyzed. The calculations by the Kyiv School of Economics in relation to the large external borrowings for 2023 have been described. The agreements of the government regarding grants and loans have been considered, which are an effective tool to ensure the financial stability of the country in the conditions of war, which is the main source of the most extensive imbalances, and where they have been directed for financing. The accumulation of the state debt and the steep decline in nominal GDP in 2022 have been described, and what it has led to. Additionally, data on the state debt for 2022 in foreign currency equivalent, hryvnia equivalent, the ratio of the state debt to GDP, and the share of the state debt in foreign currency have been provided.

Залучення боргових фінансових ресурсів на зовнішньому ринку: досвід України

The current macroeconomic and political situation in Ukraine is characterized by instability and impact of a number of adverse factors. In such circumstances, Ukraine's debt relations are focused on the increased need to attract financing. At the same time, because of the ongoing war, Ukraine's expenses are constantly and rapidly growing. The revenue side of the budget under such conditions is limited. Today it is impossible to adhere to the chosen strategic benchmark – reducing the share of the external public debt and loans in foreign currency. The article is aimed at studying the practical aspects of attracting financing by Ukraine in the foreign market with an emphasis on the problems accompanying this process. The article examines the main indicators of attracting financial resources in the foreign market, the structure of Ukraine's debt in terms of currencies, as well as an overview of the risks that accompany the current debt situation. The primary task of Ukraine's debt policy is to optimize the attraction of financial resources in the foreign market within the security corridors. Taking into account the experience of attracting financial resources both in the domestic and foreign loan capital markets will allow defining the existing problems and identifying the directions for optimizing the attraction of such financing in the current crisis. Despite the significant need for financing and limited opportunities to attract resources in the domestic market, it is proposed to limit the use of external sources. In the current period, it is proposed to focus on restructuring the existing debt and finding opportunities to attract soft lending programs. Further, in the postwar period, a clear and flexible debt policy should be formed with the definition of quantitative benchmarks for Ukraine's debt security. However, prospects for solving Ukraine's debt problems will appear only after the settlement of the political situation in the country.

Yet it Endures: The Persistence of Original Sin

Notwithstanding announcements of progress, “international original sin” (the denomination of external debt in foreign currency) remains a persistent phenomenon in emerging markets. Although some middle-income countries have succeeded in developing markets in local-currency sovereign debt and attracting foreign investors, they continue to hedge their currency exposures through transactions with local pension funds and other resident investors. The result is to shift the locus of currency mismatches within emerging economies but not to eliminate them. Other countries have limited original sin by limiting external borrowing, passing up valuable investment opportunities in pursuit of stability. We document these trends, analyzing regional and global aggregates and national case studies. Our conclusion is that there remains a case for an international initiative to address currency risk in low- and middle-income economies so they can more fully exploit economic development opportunities.

Overcoming Original Sin

Abstract This paper draws on newly expanded BIS government bond statistics to document how emerging market sovereigns have reduced their reliance on foreign currency denominated bonds since the emerging market crises of the 1990s. With external funding still important for emerging market governments, they have increasingly been able to borrow from foreign investors in their domestic currency. In this respect, emerging market governments are overcoming “Original Sin”. The flipside of these developments is that foreign investors increasingly bear the currency risk associated with fluctuations in emerging market exchange rates, making foreign investors’ portfolio decisions more sensitive to prevailing global financial conditions. Emerging markets thus remain vulnerable to reversals of investor sentiment in bond markets, whether or not they have outstanding debt in foreign currency.

КЛЮЧОВІ ДЕТЕРМІНАНТИ СТАНУ РИНКУ ДЕРЖАВНОГО БОРГУ УКРАЇНИ В ДОВОЄННИЙ ПЕРІОД

Balance on the public debt market is a guarantee of the stability of public finances. The state of public debt and the country's debt security depend on the efficiency of the public debt market of any country. When determining the key determinants of the debt market state, indicators that take into account the macroeconomic conditions of the borrowing country should be taken into account. Therefore, the article focuses on relative indicators. In addition, it is worth taking into account not only the indicators contained in domestic regulations, but also international recommendations. Usually, international standards characterizing debt security are quite high. Compliance with such indicators is primarily important for countries with emerging markets, to which Ukraine belongs. And for highly developed countries, the key is compliance with solvency, not indicators and norms related to the size of the debt and its components. The key determinants of the Ukraine's public debt market state in the pre-war period were the definition and assessment of the following indicators: the ratio of state and guaranteed state debt to gross domestic product, the share of debt in foreign currency, the share of guaranteed debt, the share of external debt, the ratio of gross external debt to GDP and the ratio of official international reserves to external debt, an indicator of the ratio of debt repayment expenditures in relation to general budget expenditures, as well as the ratio of debt service expenditures in budget expenditures. All the analyzed indicators illustrate a permanent excess of the permissible norms, which are substantiated by scientists and recommended by international financial institutions. The high debt burden on the budget and the economy as a whole, caused by the State debt accumulated over the years, is extremely negative. The high level of expenses for maintenance and debt payment makes it necessary to reduce the total expenses of the state, which affects social or other components, or forces to expand fiscal sources and increase fiscal pressure.

Flexible exchange rates in emerging markets: shock absorbers or drivers of endogenous cycles?

AbstractWhile flexible exchange rates are commonly regarded as shock absorbers, heterodox views suggest that they can play a pro-cyclical role in emerging markets. This article provides theoretical and empirical support for this view. Drawing on post-Keynesian and structuralist theories, we propose a simple model in which flexible exchange rates in conjunction with external shocks become endogenous drivers of boom-bust cycles, once financial effects from foreign-currency debt are accounted for. We present empirical evidence for regular cycles in nominal US-dollar exchange rates in several emerging markets that are closely aligned with cycles in economic activity. An econometric analysis suggests the presence of a cyclical interaction mechanism between exchange rates and output, in line with the theoretical model, in Chile, South Africa, and partly the Philippines. Further evidence indicates that such exchange rate cycles cannot exclusively be attributed to external factors, such as commodity prices, US monetary policy or the global financial cycle. We therefore argue that exchange rate cycles in emerging markets are driven by the interplay of external shocks and endogenous cycle mechanisms.

On the dynamic capital structure of nations: Theory and empirics

We develop a dynamic model of the optimal capital structure of a nation from a corporate finance perspective. A stochastic model is developed to determine the optimal combination of fiat money, domestic-currency debt, and foreign-currency debt for a nation to fund economic growth and development. We then test the implications of the model based on an analysis of data for 22 emerging economies. Consistent with the theoretical model, our findings indicate that the combination of money and debt depends on the trade-off between the inflation risk of fiat money and domestic-currency debt, and the default risk of foreign-currency debt.