Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) occupy a leading position in the structure of all-cause mortality. Prospective and interventional studies have identified the major risk factors for CVD and shown their associations with the risk of cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause death. The impact on the individual risk of death may vary by age, sex, study design, and may be population-specific. We aimed to study the contribution of major CVD risk factors to the 15-year risk of all-cause death in the Russian (Siberian) population cohort aged 45–69 years.Material and methods. A random population sample (men and women 45–69 years old, n = 9360) was examined at baseline in 2003–2005 (Novosibirsk, Russian branch of the HAPIEE project) and re-examined twice in 2006–2008 and 2015–2018. Current analysis included individuals without baseline CVD (n = 8087), the average follow-up period – 15.6 (SD 0.69) years. The fatal events were registered based on death certificates from the Population Registration Bureau (ZAGS), and using the data received at serial examinations and postal interview. We analyzed the association between CVD risk factors and all-cause death using multivariate Cox regression.Results. In a cohort aged 45–69, in the adjusted model, 15-year risk of all-cause death was positively associated with age (HR = 1.08; 95 % CI 1.07–1.09), male sex (HR = 1.46; 95 % CI 1.24–1.71), hypertension (HT) (HR = 1.39; 95 % CI 1.25–1.55), smoking (HR = 2.37; 95 % CI 2.08–2.70), high WHR (HR = 1.19; 95 % CI 1.06–1.33), and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) (HR = 1.52; 95 % CI 1.34–1.73), and it was negatively associated with elevated total cholesterol (TC) or LDL-C in blood. In age- and sex-adjusted model, the risk was additionally associated with high triglycerides (HTG), obesity and elevated fasting plasma glucose (FPG). In men, the risk of death was independently associated with age, HT, smoking, low HDL-C, high WHR, and T2DM. In women, the risk of death was independently associated with age, HT, T2DM smoking, and, in age-standardized models, obesity, high WHR, and hyperglycemia.Conclusions. In a population cohort of 45 years and older, among CVD risk factors male sex, HT, smoking, central obesity, and T2DM independently contributed to the risk of all-cause death. Among lipid parameters, low HDL-C and high TG levels increased the risk of death in men. Associations between cardiovascular risk factors and the risk of all-cause death in older people have the patterns specific for older age; these features are important to take into account in a strategy to reduce mortality in the population.
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