Spiegelhalter Research Articles

In Conversation with Sir David Spiegelhalter and Professor Sylvia Richardson

In Conversation with Sir David Spiegelhalter and Professor Sylvia Richardson

Queering the Stats A Review of David Spiegelhalter’s The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data

The goal of this review is to explore The Art of Statistics using a mathematics education perspective and to illuminate the ways that it can be used as a resource in math instruction by students, preservice teachers, and math educators in general. I take the approach that the teaching and learning of mathematics is a part of the complex system comprising of many “interacting agents” (Davis, 2018, p. 77), such as students, teacher, curricula, and technology. The content of the book is a potential resource in the classroom, a potential part of the complex network. Echoing Jorge Louis Borges’ claim that a book is not an isolated entity, but that it contains infinite narratives brought by readers (Borges, 2007), I would like to examine the potential role of the content of this book in the learning ecosystem, including how the elements of this book could be used, and repurposed to fit our pedagogical goals.

Covid By Numbers: Making Sense of the Pandemic with Data

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS OBE is Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication in the Centre for Mathematical Sciences at the University of Cambridge. Dr Anthony Masters is a Chartered Statistician, a Statistical Ambassador for the Royal Statistical Society, and a frequent blogger and explainer of statistical ideas. The book is written for readers who want to have a clearer understanding of how to interpret COVID-19 data and evidence. The book structure has been designed to answer questions asked throughout the pandemic and to use data to answer each question. There are 7 main sections split into 28 short chapters each representing a different question. Each chapter only takes a few minutes to read and therefore allows readers to dip in and out of the book efficiently and easily access any topics of interest. The following topics are covered: The data presented are evidence based, but...

The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data

At the outset of the book, the author notes two modern challenges to the traditional view of statistics as a basic ‘bag of tools’: the inappropriate application of statistical methods, resulting in the crisis of reproducibility among scientific publications, and the emergence of data science, in which large datasets are analysed by increasingly sophisticated algorithms but with diminished human oversight. As the Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge and former President of the Royal Statistical Society, David Spiegelhalter is extremely well placed to offer a remedy to these developments. To this end, Spiegelhalter has produced a highly readable and engaging introduction to an impressive array of statistical concepts, emphasizing common pitfalls at each step. Eager to avoid the litany of mathematical formulae which often pepper introductory statistical texts, Spiegelhalter motivates each concept with compelling questions derived from real-world case studies, such as calculating...

David Spiegelhalter: The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data

David Spiegelhalter: The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data

Sound human, steer clear of jargon, and be prepared.

Kevin McConway and David Spiegelhalter offer tips to statisticians communicating through the media, especially in the time of Covid‐19

No more damned lies…

Statistical literacy is more important than ever in the covid crisis, statistician David Spiegelhalter told the audience at a recent New Scientist event – but that means turning yourself into a data detective

Julie A. Nelson, Gender and Risk-Taking: Economics, Evidence, and Why the Answer Matters

As I started to write this review, I happened to read a book review by Hannah Fry in the September 9, 2019 issue of The New Yorker of David Spiegelhalter’s new book, The Art of Statistics. Among other things, Spiegelhalter highlights the pitfalls in the standard practice of using Fisher’s p-test to reject a hypothesis that a result has occurred by chance. The conventional threshold for this “statistical significance” is p < 0.05. This means that in 20 samples, or trials of an experiment, one ...

Covid-19: Experts urge strategies to prevent further outbreaks in care homes.

With data showing that covid-19 outbreaks are occurring in 38% of care homes, a concerted effort is needed to prevent outbreaks in the rest, say experts. Office for National Statistics data for the week ending 8 May 2020 showed that deaths from all causes in care homes fell by around a third, from 6409 the previous week to 4248.12 Deaths involving covid-19 as a proportion of all deaths in care homes continued to rise, however, to 39.2%, from 37.8% in the previous week. Speaking at a press briefing hosted by the Science Media Centre, David Spiegelhalter, chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, said that the …

Art, Artfulness, or Artifice?: A Review of The Art of Statistics: How to Learn From Data, by David Spiegelhalter

Art, Artfulness, or Artifice?: A Review of <em>The Art of Statistics: How to Learn From Data</em>, by David Spiegelhalter

Clinical predictor score to identify patients at risk of poor viral load suppression at six months on antiretroviral therapy: results from a prospective cohort study in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Purpose: As countries work toward 90:90:90 targets, early identification of patients with inadequate response to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is critical for achieving optimal HIV treatment outcomes. We developed and evaluated a clinical prediction score (CPS) to identify HIV-positive patients at risk of poor viral load suppression at 6 months on ART.Patients and methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study of HIV-positive ART naïve adults (≥18 years) initiating standard first-line ART between February 2012 and April 2014 at Themba Lethu Clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. We used Modified Poisson regression to estimate the association between patient characteristics and poor viral load suppression, defined as a viral load ≥400 copies/mL at 6 months on ART. We developed a CPS following the Spiegel Halter and Knill-Jones approach and determined the diagnostic accuracy compared to viral load as the “gold standard”. We identified the optimal cutoff at which the CPS would identify those at risk of poor viral load suppression.Results: Among 353 patients, 67.7% had a viral load measurement at 6 months on ART and 30.1% of these were viremic (≥400 copies/mL). Male gender, platelet count <150 cells/mm3, ≥7 days late for ≥2 ARV visits, visual analog scale (VAS) <90% and <14.5 fL increase in mean cell volume from baseline to 6 months were included in the CPS. The optimal cutoff was 5 (≥5 vs <5; sensitivity [Se] 65.3%, specificity [Sp] 46.7%) and the CPS performed better than standard measures of adherence (eg, VAS Se 24.5%; Simplified Medication Adherence Questionnaire Se 26.5%).Conclusion: Our findings suggest a 6-month CPS may have the potential to identify patients at risk of poor viral load suppression. The CPS may be used to target patients who need intensive adherence support, with the caveat that there may be a three- to four-fold increase in the pool of patients identified for adherence counseling.

Some Ghosts of Statistics Past

Some Ghosts of Statistics Past

The Spring Lecture: Communicating risks and uncertainty by Sir David John Spiegelhalter ‐ Abstract of the lecture

The Spring Lecture: Communicating risks and uncertainty by Sir David John Spiegelhalter ‐ Abstract of the lecture

Presentation of a Finlaison Medal to Adrian Waddingham, and Presentation of Honorary Fellowships to Dr Madhavi Bajekal and Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter

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Sex-rated statistics

David Spiegelhalter's new book explores human sexual activity through numbers. But there is nothing salacious about this extract. Instead, Spiegelhalter shows us how to sort quality stats from tawdry factoids, using a simple classification system

The Norm Chronicles: stories and numbers about danger by MichaelBlastland and DavidSpiegelhalter, Profile Books Ltd, London, 2013. No. of pages: 288. Price: £12.99. ISBN: 9781846686207

The Norm Chronicles: stories and numbers about danger by MichaelBlastland and DavidSpiegelhalter, Profile Books Ltd, London, 2013. No. of pages: 288. Price: £12.99. ISBN: 9781846686207

Have London's Roads Become more Dangerous for Cyclists?

Abstract Cities are dangerous places to cycle – and a sudden spike in deaths has brought a media furore. But do they mean that something on the streets has changed? Jody Aberdein and David Spiegelhalter investigate.

Policy: Twenty tips for interpreting scientific claims

This list will help non-scientists to interrogate advisers and to grasp the limitations of evidence, say William J. Sutherland, David Spiegelhalter and Mark A. Burgman.

Breast Implants: The Scandal, the Outcry, and Assessing the Risks

Abstract The PIP scandal broke last year: thousands of women had received substandard breast implants that contained industrial-grade gel and were liable to leak. What were the risks? Should the implants be removed? Amid huge public outcry, David Spiegelhalter, Stuart Knight and Tony Sant were asked urgently to report.

Score and Ignore

Abstract Do you shout at the morning radio when a story about a medical “risk” is distorted, exaggerated, mangled out of all recognition? Does your annoyance ruin your breakfast? You are not alone. Kevin McConway and David Spiegelhalter have developed a defence strategy to save their start-of-the-day sanity. Strike back at the presenters! And make it personal …