Danish Heating Research Articles

Heat atlas accuracy compared to metered data

This study investigates the accuracy of the modelled heat demand in a heat atlas compared to metered data. The Danish heat atlas is compared to metered heat demand values from more than 1 million buildings. The calculated heat demands of single buildings in the heat atlas are compared to metered data of the actual buildings. Statistical analysis is applied to the two datasets, to investigate how well the heat atlas predicts the actual heat consumption and how accurate it is for different sized groups of buildings and groups consisting of different building types. The study results in a higher certainty and better knowledge of the accuracy of the results. In this way, the utilization of the tool in actual planning for the Danish heating sector is improved. Furthermore, by identifying in which areas or building types the heat atlas is lacking accuracy it is possible to consider this in the results of calculations using the tool. The results indicate that the estimates of the heat atlas mainly can be considered valid for single-family buildings, but for other categories, there are larger uncertainties and thus the heat atlas should be used with more caution in those areas.

Conditions and intervention strategies for the deliberate acceleration of socio-technical transitions: lessons from a comparative multi-level analysis of two historical case studies in Dutch and Danish heating

ABSTRACTPolicy-oriented transition frameworks such as Strategic Niche Management, Transition Management, and Technological Innovation Systems offer limited analytical traction on deliberately accelerated socio-technical transitions. Using the Multi-Level Perspective as guiding framework, we therefore inductively explore the political acceleration of socio-technical transitions by investigating two deliberately accelerated heating transitions: the transition from coal and oil to natural gas in the Netherlands (1948–1973), and the transition from oil to district heating in Denmark (1945–1990), to draw lessons about the conditions and intervention strategies that facilitate rapid socio-technical change. We find that both cases were characterised by weakened regimes, stabilised niche-innovations, focusing events, and consensus between policymakers and business actors. User resistance was also low in both cases, partly because of public policies. Different focusing events in each case produced problem-driven versus opportunity-driven transition pathways; the former destabilised existing regimes but generated future-oriented uncertainty, while the latter facilitated rapid closure.

Data-driven study on individual occupant comfort using heating setpoints and window openings in new low-energy apartments – preliminary insights

This work suggests a method to evaluate residential building occupants’ neutral temperature in winter based on their interaction with their heating system. This study applies the developed method on eight new, low-energy apartments in Copenhagen, Denmark. A set of indoor temperature, heating setpoint, window opening and floor heating valve opening data was collected from mid-January to the end of April, spanning through a large part of the Danish heating season. Semi-structured interviews were performed with occupants of three of the eight apartments in order to understand their use of their heating system. This preliminary study permits to highlight the potential and the current limitations of the proposed method, both for neutral temperature estimation as such and for applications in optimizing the energy flexibility provided by the building. This article suggests directions for further elaboration of the model. The main two influential factors highlighted here affecting setpoint adjustment are the occupants’ acceptability of temperature variation and their ability to control the heating system.

The economic crisis and sustainable development: The design of job creation strategies by use of concrete institutional economics

This paper presents Concrete Institutional Economics as an economic paradigm to understand how the wish for sustainable energy in times of economic crisis can be used to generate jobs as well as economic growth. In most countries, including European countries, the USA and China, the implementation of sustainable energy solutions involves the replacement of imported fossil fuels by substantial investments in energy conservation and renewable energy (RE). In such situation, it becomes increasingly essential to develop economic thinking and economic models that can analyse the concrete institutions in which the market is embedded. This paper presents such tools and methodologies and applies them to the case of the Danish heating sector. The case shows how investments in decreasing fossil fuels and CO2 emissions can be made in a way in which they have a positive influence on job creation and economic development as well as public expenditures.