Dam Failure Research Articles

Origins of British reservoir safety legislation 1850–1930

One hundred years ago in 1925, there were two dam failures with significant loss of life, and following these disasters, the 1930 Reservoirs (Safety Provisions) Act was enacted. Catastrophic failures in the nineteenth century had produced demands for government action but legislation had been much delayed by changes of government at critical times and by concerns about inadvertently reducing the legal liability of reservoir owners. Also, there was a marked lack of enthusiasm within the civil engineering profession for a government inspectorate. The key feature of the 1930 Act was that reservoir owners were required to appoint qualified civil engineers to inspect their reservoirs and, following such inspections, to implement measures required in the interests of safety. Post-1930 legislation, which it is intended will be the subject of a further paper, has done much to enhance public safety but the fundamental importance of independent qualified civil engineers has not diminished.

Characterization of dam failure flooding in an urban reservoir under different rainfall conditions.

In water conservation projects, reservoirs play a key role in controlling and regulating floods. In recent years, extreme rainfall events have occurred more frequently. Urban reservoirs in danger under extreme rainfall happen occasionally. The breaching of urban reservoirs seriously threatens the lives and property of the population downstream. A lack of clarity regarding the characterization of the flooding response remains owing to urban reservoir overtopping under different rainfall conditions. This study used observed data from the heavy rainfall event in Zhengzhou on July 20, 2021, with Jiangang Reservoir in Zhengzhou as the study site. The study designed a storm-flood process with different rainfall scenarios that combines the long-duration rainstorm formula and Chicago rain pattern method, establishing a response relationship between extreme rainfall and flooding processes. Flood evolution simulation analyses were carried out for different scenarios of rainfall and flooding processes under three working conditions: rainfall only, dam failure only and dam failure coupled with rainfall, to characterize the flood response due to dam failure under different rainfall conditions. The results showed that the peak of the rainfall occurs earlier in the total rainfall calendar time, the faster the dam failure rate of the reservoir. As the rain peak occurs at a time that is later in the total rainfall calendar, and the recurrence period and rainfall duration increase, the flood volume increases and urban inundation becomes more severe. The rainfall type had less of an effect on the difference in the extent of inundation between different working conditions. The extent of flood inundation for the dam failure-coupled rainfall scenario is much greater than that for the dam failure only scenario. The increase in inundation extent in the dam failure coupled rainfall scenario at the higher levels of flood severity is smaller. Study results provide hydraulic element support for flood hazard assessment.

Simulation of landslide dam failure due to overtopping considering wide-graded soil erosion

Landslide dams, as a particular type of secondary geological disaster, can cause serious flood disasters. Therefore, accurately predicting potential dam failure processes is crucial for developing reasonable emergency response plans. Currently, several landslide dam failure models have been proposed, but most of these models do not appropriately consider the wide gradation of landslide dam materials, which is essential for accurate erosion calculations. Therefore, this research proposes a relative exposure formula under three-dimensional conditions to account for the concealment and exposure effects between large and small particles in wide-graded soil. Based on this, the incipient velocity of wide-graded soil is derived, and a mathematical model of overtopping failure of landslide dams is established. As part of the model, a numerical solution process is also developed to ensure convergence. To evaluate the performance of this new mathematical model, the discharge process of Tangjiashan landslide dam was used as a real-world case for dam failure calculation. The calculated results of key dam failure outcomes were compared with actual measurements, showing that the results of this model are largely consistent with actual measurements, with the error controlled within 10%. Additionally, the mathematical model proposed in this article was compared with two other existing dam failure models, revealing that the model proposed here has advantages in controlling the error of key dam failure outcomes, mainly due to the comprehensive consideration of erosion calculation in wide-graded soil. To further evaluate the stability of the model, the breach processes of the “11.3” Baige landslide dam and the Yigong landslide dam were also calculated, and the results showed reasonable consistency. Based on the model presented in this article, the influence of the grading width of landslide dam materials on key dam failure outcomes was discussed. It was found that grading width significantly affects the development process of breach flow. Specifically, wider grading width leads to smaller peak values of breach flow and later peak times. Additionally, the final size of the breach is affected by grading width, as it has a significant impact on erosion strength, although the sensitivity of this parameter is relatively weak. Given the significant impact of grading width on the dam failure process, especially for landslide dams containing wide-graded soil, it is essential to fully consider the wide grading of materials for accurate dam failure calculations.

A coupled peridynamics–smoothed particle hydrodynamics model for fluid–structure interaction with large deformation

Fluid–structure interaction (FSI) is ubiquitous in various engineering disciplines, and effectively managing FSI often appears to be the key for successful failure analysis and safety-oriented design. Smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) serves as a potent nonlocal meshfree method for fluid dynamics modeling, while peridynamics (PD) demonstrates exceptional capability in addressing structural dynamics involving large deformations and discontinuities. Thus, leveraging their respective strengths in a combined approach holds significant promise for tackling FSI challenges. In this work, we propose a new peridynamics–smoothed particle hydrodynamics (PD-SPH) coupling model for addressing FSI. A stable and efficient coupling algorithm for data transfer between PD and SPH is put forward. In this coupling strategy, a PD particle directly participates in solving the SPH governing equations when it is identified to be within the support domain of an SPH particle. This can be done since the SPH quantities including the density, velocity, and pressure of a PD particle are naturally attainable within the framework of non-ordinary state-based peridynamics theory. Concurrently, in solving PD governing equations, reaction forces from SPH particles act as external forces for PD particles, determined straightforwardly through Newton's third law. As such, the proposed PD-SPH coupling strategy is straightforward to implement and offers high computational efficiency. Validation examples demonstrate that the proposed PD-SPH coupling model is computationally robust and adept at capturing physical phenomena in diverse FSI scenarios involving breaking free surfaces of fluid and large structural deformations of solid. Moreover, the proposed PD-SPH coupling model is flexible introducing no constraint conditions for applications and can accommodate different particle resolutions for PD and SPH domains. These features enable a broad application range of the proposed PD-SPH coupling model including simulations of explosion-induced soil fragmentation, rock fracture, and concrete dam failure, which will be conducted by authors in the near future.

Dam break flow through rigid-emergent vegetation

Dam failures pose a significant threat to life and property. This study investigates the potential of rigid emergent vegetation to attenuate dam break waves, reducing their destructive impact. Experiments explored the effect of varying vegetation field lengths on wave propagation. Wooden cylinders with consistent diameter (1.0 cm) and density (0.067) simulated the rigid vegetation in a straight, flat rectangular channel. Four different vegetation lengths and three bore conditions for different reservoir and tailwater depths were examined to analyze their influence on dam break wave behavior. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of vegetation in dissipating wave energy, leading to a rapid decrease in wave height and celerity. Interestingly, increasing vegetation length significantly attenuates the wave height downstream of the vegetation zone, while having no significant impact on the reflection wave height upstream of the vegetation. This finding highlights the targeted effectiveness of strategically placed vegetation in shielding downstream areas. The study also clarifies that celerity can be calculated using shallow water equations for both upstream and downstream regions with wave height and tailwater depth. However, within the vegetation, drag forces significantly reduce celerity. A novel equation, derived from wavefront profiles, was proposed and validated to accurately calculate celerity within the vegetation field. These findings provide valuable data for validating numerical models simulating dam break wave interactions with vegetation.Graphical abstract

A metamodel for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the modeling of loss of life due to dam failures

ABSTRACT Estimating the loss of life resulting from dam failures is required for devising emergency action plans and strategies for alert issuance and evacuation. However, current models for simulating fatalities are computationally expensive, forced by highly uncertain variables, and not readily interpretable, which may limit their use in engineering and research. For circumventing these problems, we utilize the polynomial chaos expansion technique (PCE) for approximating the loss of life as obtained from the agent-based model LifeSim and propagating uncertainty of inputs, namely, alerted population, mobilized population, alert issuance, and hazard identification, to the model responses. We also benefit from the PCE spectral representation for assessing the effects of each input in the loss of life associated with the dam failure in an urban area in Brazil, considering efficient and inefficient scenarios for alert and evacuation. The PCE error ranged from 10–3 to 10–2, and the mean squared error between the metamodel output and LifeSim was between two fatalities. In global sensitivity analysis, the variables alert issuance and hazard identification contributed the most to the number of fatalities. These findings provide objective guidelines for implementing more effective safety measures, potentially reducing loss of life resulting from a dam break in the study area.

Unveiling disaster: exploring dam failures and CBRNe events in Brazil and beyond

Unveiling disaster: exploring dam failures and CBRNe events in Brazil and beyond

Tectonic activation and the risk of Ilisu Dam collapse to Iraq through modelling and simulation using HEC-RAS

Floods caused by dam failures can cause huge losses of life and property, especially in estuarine areas and valleys. In spite of all the capabilities and great improvements reached by man in the construction of dams and their structures, they will remain helpless before the powerful forces of nature, especially those related to tectonic activation, and the occurrence of earthquakes of different intensities.The region extending from the Ilisu Dam in Turkey to the Mosul Dam in Iraq was chosen as an area for this study, and the HEC-RAS application was used to simulate the collapse of the Ilisu Dam due to a major earthquake, to know the magnitude of the risks and losses that could result from this. The Ilisu Dam was built very close to a highly tectonically active fault system, particularly the East Anatolian Fault (EAF), which is one of the largest tectonically active faults in the world with a length of 500 km. This region has witnessed past and present earthquakes of high magnitude (M > 7), especially in the EAF, so the construction of the Ilisu Dam near the EAF fault system is of great concern, as it was built in a basin with very complex seismic activity and geology.Using the HEC-RAS simulation application, the study found that the flood resulting from the collapse of the Ilisu Dam would reach the edges of the Mosul Dam Lake in just 13 h. With a flow of more than 100,000 m3/s, more than 10 billion m3 of water will flow into the Mosul Dam Lake within four days of the disaster. This will lead to the collapse of the Mosul Dam and direct the flood wave of the collapse of these dams towards Baghdad through Mosul, Tikrit, and Samarra. This could pose risks to all Iraqi cities located within the Iraqi sedimentary plain (Mesopotamia), from south of the Mosul Dam up to Basra, in a scenario similar to Noah’s Flood.

THE IMPORTANCE OF A CONTINGENCY PLAN

The dissertation titled “The Importance of a Contingency Plan: For the Residents of Vila Bom Jesus in the Municipality of Canaã dos Carajás-PA in Cases of Dam Rupture” addresses the urgent need for an effective contingency plan for this vulnerable community. The social relevance of the topic is unquestionable, given the increasing incidence of natural and technological disasters. The Brumadinho tragedy in 2019 highlighted the devastating consequences of dam failures, underscoring the importance of preventive measures. This study aims to examine the effectiveness of current contingency plans and propose recommendations to improve the preparedness and resilience of Vila Bom Jesus residents. Specific objectives include analyzing the structure of existing plans, assessing community perception, and proposing strategies for continuous improvement. The methodology used is based on a literature review, with strict inclusion and exclusion criteria to ensure the relevance and quality of the analyzed articles. The thematic analysis of the data facilitates the identification of patterns and critical elements for the development of effective plans. The results reveal that although contingency plans exist, the lack of knowledge and adequate preparation among residents compromises their effectiveness. Anderson Vasconcellos Amaral’s research highlights the transformation of Canaã dos Carajás landscapes due to mining and agriculture, and the social and environmental implications of these activities. The dissertation concludes that contingency plans need to be continuously reviewed and updated, incorporating new information and best practices. The contributions of this study are significant for the protection of vulnerable communities, providing practical guidelines that can be adapted to different contexts.

An overview of soil and plant assessment for predicting site quality and recovery strategies of one the largest tailings dam failures worldwide.

Brazil's Fundão dam collapse is one of the world's largest disasters of tailing dam failures. Previous research has evaluated toxic metals and non-metals (Cd, Cr, Ni, Pb, As, Hg) in the same soil samples used in this study, and results have indicated that only Fe and Mn concentrations increased above the original baseline (Melo et al., 2023). Consequently, the present study's focus has shifted towards assessing and integrating changes in soil quality regarding chemical fertility and morphological, physical, and mineralogical attributes in the floodplains post-dam collapse. Soil samples from 0 to 0.2 and 0.2-0.4m depths, and samples of Urochloa sp. were collected along ten transects, spanning 100km perpendicular to the Doce River channel. This sampling strategy targeted specific landscape positions including areas affected by deposited iron tailings (DIT), soil tailing mixture (STM), and control soil (CS) devoid of iron tailing interference. Results showed no discernible alterations in Ca, Mg, K, and P concentrations in Urochloa sp., and the most severe negative impacts observed regarded the replacement of kaolinitic pre-disaster matrix for hematitic matrix, reduction in organic carbon, and the prevalence of sand and silt particles. These factors collectively contributed to triggering: (i) decrease in chemical fertility and cation exchange capacity and (ii) significant decline in physical quality, evidenced by increased density and reduced total porosity and macroporosity. Addressing these adverse effects would require the augment of organic matter levels and offset the dominance of the hematitic matrix in the DIT. Furthermore, it is imperative to decompact the DIT by mechanized or plant cultivation means.

Predictions of Peak Discharge of Dam Failures Based on the Combined GA and BP Neural Networks

In this paper, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was utilized to predict the peak discharge of dam failures, which was based on the combined Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Back Propagation (BP) neural network. The dataset comprises 40 samples from self-conducted experiments and available literature. To compare the efficiency of the suggested approach, three evaluation metrics, including the coefficient of determination (R2), the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE), were analyzed for both the BP neural network and the GA-BP neural network. The findings suggest that (1) The prediction accuracy of the GA-BP was better than that of the BP; and (2) Compared to BP, GA-BP demonstrated a 9.07% average improvement in R2, a 57.36% average reduction in MAE, and a 57.53% average reduction in RMSE. In addition, the results of GA-BP and semi-empirical formulas were compared and the effect of three parameters on the peak discharge was analyzed. The results showed that the GA-BP model could effectively predict the peak discharge of dam failures.

Study of Flooding Behavior and Discharge from Karot Dam in the Event of a Possible Breach by Using the Hydrodynamic Model

This study utilizes the MIKE 11 hydrodynamic model developed by the Danish Hydraulic Institute to simulate flood behavior downstream of Karot Dam under multi-year in-flow conditions. The key parameters analyzed include breach characteristics, flood duration, water depth, flow velocity, discharge rate, and downstream distance. After dam failure, the peak discharge reaches 33,171 m3/s, exceeding the 10,000-year recurrence peak flow of 32,300 m3/s, with a breach duration of 2 h. The estimated peak discharge after simulation using empirical equations and comparative analyses showed maximum flood discharges of 28,187 m3/s, 28,922 m3/s, and 29,769 m3/s, with breach widths of 181 m, 256 m, and 331 m, respectively. The peak discharge predicted to reach the outlet with travel time ranging from 4 h 25 min to 4 h 40 min. Under multi-year average inflow conditions, Mangla Dam faces no risk of failure, with a maximum outflow of 12,097 m3/s and a spillway capacity of 30,147 m3/s. The model accurately predicted discharge values, with a strong correlation coefficient of R2 = 0.9653, indicating strong agreement between the actual water level data and predicted discharge. These insights are essential for developing effective emergency response strategies to mitigate the risks associated with dam failure.

The Coupled Application of the DB-IWHR Model and the MIKE 21 Model for the Assessment of Dam Failure Risk

The phenomenon of global climate change has led to an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, an acceleration in the melting of glaciers and snow cover, and an elevation of the risk of flooding. In this study, the DB-IWHR model was employed in conjunction with the MIKE 21 hydrodynamic model to develop a simulation system for the dam failure flow process of an earth and rock dam. The study concentrated on the KET reservoir, and 12 dam failure scenarios were devised based on varying design flood criteria. The impact of reservoir failures on flood-risk areas was subjected to detailed analysis, with consideration given to a range of potential failure scenarios and flood sizes. It was determined that under identical inflow frequency conditions, the higher the water level, the more rapid the breakout process and the corresponding increase in flood peak discharge. Conversely, for a given frequency of incoming water, an elevated water level results in a transient breach process, accompanied by a reduction in flood peak flow. Moreover, for a given water level, an increase in water frequency results in a reduction in breaching time, an extension of flood duration, and an increase in flood peak flow. The observed trend of flood spreading is generally north-south, and this process is highly compatible with the topographic and geomorphological features, demonstrating good adaptability.

Increasing dam failure risk in the USA due to compound rainfall clusters as climate changes

A changing climate, with intensifying precipitation may contribute to increasing failures of dams by overtopping. We present the first analysis of rainfall sequences and events associated with recent hydrologic failures of 552 dams in the United States. We find that the maximum 1-day rainfall associated with failure was often not extreme compared to dam spillway design criteria, even when accounting for rainfall statistics changing with time at each site. However, the combination of the total rainfall 5 to 30 days prior and the maximum 1-day rainfall associated with dam failure is rare. Persistent atmospheric circulation patterns that lead to recurrent rainfall events, rather than just more moisture in the atmosphere is a possible reason. The probability of these compound precipitation risks has increased across much of the country. With over 90,000 aging dams still in service, the increasing likelihood of intense rainfall sequences raises concerns about future dam failures.

Coupled Analysis of Risk Factor for Tailing Pond Dam Failure Accident Based on N–K Model and SNA

The failure of tailings pond dams represents a complex coupled system involving various risk factors, including human, governance, facilities, and environmental aspects. It is crucial to identify key risk factors at the system level to enhance the safety management of tailings ponds. We analyzed 74 cases of tailings pond dam failure accidents, both domestically and internationally, from the perspectives of human, governance, facility, and environment. We employed the 2–4 Model to identify and extract the causes of dam failures, summarizing these into four primary risk factors and 40 secondary risk factors, while constructing a risk coupling mechanism model. The natural killing (N–K) model was implemented to analyze the risk coupling values of primary risk factors and quantify these couplings. The N–K model facilitated an analysis of the risk coupling values of first-level risk factors, while social network analysis (SNA) was employed to visualize the relationships among second-level risk factors and assess the centrality and accessibility of nodes within the risk factor network. The out-degree of the risk nodes was corrected by integrating the N–K model with the SNA, leading to the identification of key risk factors associated with tailings pond dam failures and the formulation of corresponding safety prevention and control strategies. The findings indicate that managing multi-risk factor coupling is an effective approach to mitigating the occurrence of tailings pond dam failure accidents. Notably, unfavorable environmental risk factors significantly contribute to the coupling of human–governance–facility–environmental risks, necessitating targeted management strategies. Furthermore, inadequate safety supervision, weak safety awareness, inadequate receipt and inspection, and irregular operation represent additional key risk factors requiring focused prevention and control efforts.

Establishing a tailings storage facility database in Gauteng

As an initial step of zero harm, an understanding of the scale and magnitude of Tailings Storage Facilities (TSFs) is necessary for risk assessments. There is no publicly available TSF database in each South African province with details on TSF distribution of risks and characteristics. TSF-related cases such as the Jagersfontein Tailings Dam failure and the crime challenges by illegal miners at the North Sands Dump are significant motivations to establish a publicly accessible TSF database, especially in Gauteng. The objectives of the study were to establish a TSF database comprising the spatial distribution of TSFs and to classify each TSF by its operational activity status. The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy publishes data on TSFs, and it was used to create the database. Due to coordinate data limitations, only 94 TSFs could be presented on ArcGIS Pro. The study finds that there is almost an equal split of active and inactive TSFs in Gauteng. Most active TSFs are situated in the East Rand of Gauteng. Furthermore, companies that own some of the TSFs in Gauteng include Durban Roodepoort Deep Gold, which owns 70 % of TSFs, followed by AfriSam (6 %) and Blyvoor Gold (4 %). Companies need to disclose all their TSF data to strengthen the database.

Evaluation of Iron Ore Tailings From the Fundão Dam Failure in Mariana-MG As A Partial Substitute For Conventional Fine Aggregates in Cement Mortars

Evaluation of Iron Ore Tailings From the Fundão Dam Failure in Mariana-MG As A Partial Substitute For Conventional Fine Aggregates in Cement Mortars

A machine vision‐based intelligent segmentation method for dam underwater cracks using swarm optimization algorithm and deep learning

AbstractEnsuring the safety of water networks is a research hotspot in the current water conservancy industry, and dams are an important part. However, over time, the dam is prone to varying degrees of aging and disease, most of which are structural cracks. If they cannot be discovered and repaired in time, the normal operation of the dam will be affected, and even catastrophic accidents such as dam failure will occur. However, complex backgrounds and blurred images can easily lead to misjudgments by machine vision detection models, and high‐efficiency and accurate detection and evaluation technology are urgently needed. This paper combines the deep semantic segmentation network and the model hyperparameters optimization algorithm to propose a data‐intelligent perception method of dam underwater cracks driven by knowledge coupling. Taking the underwater detection of a concrete face rockfill dam as an example, the effectiveness of the model is verified by using the underwater vehicle as the carrier. Experimental results indicate that the developed method achieves an intersection‐union ratio of 0.9301, a precision rate of 0.9678, a precision rate of 0.9472, and a recall rate of 0.9577 in the test set. This shows that the constructed method has a high crack fine detection performance. In addition, the developed method has better segmentation performance in different complex underwater crack scenes, which further illustrates the high performance of the developed method.

Application of bursting pressure and conventional drained behavioural theory to the Brumadinho failure

The Brumadinho tailings dam failure in 2019 has had a profound impact on the way tailings engineers analyse and interpret stability, with the focus of assessments moving away from conventional drained behaviour to consideration of undrained and post-liquefaction resistance. One of the contributing reasons is that the Expert Panel investigation of the failure concluded that, despite the drained factor of safety being adequate, the failure took place in an undrained manner. This paper examines the Brumadinho failure from a conventional drained perspective using two-dimensional limit equilibrium and finite difference modelling. Collectively, these analyses show that the failure can also be explained by a drained triggering mechanism and therefore suggest that several additional lessons may be learnt from the failure.

Alteration of soil microbiomes in an arsenic and antimony co-contamination zone after dam failure

Arsenic (As) and antimony (Sb), two toxic metal(loid)s, behave similarly and commonly occur in mine tailings. Yet, responses of microbes to As and Sb co-contamination in tailings dam failure-affected area remain limited. Herein, soil microbiomes (archaea, bacteria and fungi) across two contrasting sites (tailing-contaminated farmland and nearby undisturbed forestland) at a Sb-Au mining district in Chizhou, China were investigated by high-throughput sequencing. Results showed that As and Sb occurred mainly in the residual form, accounting for 55.82% and 52.04%, respectively. The bioavailable form was 12.77% and 10.39% in contaminated farmland compared to 13.31% and 11.66% in undisturbed forestland, respectively. Contrary to archaea and fungi, bacterial alpha-diversity significantly increased in contaminated farmland. The taxa-taxa interactions in archaea were most robust, followed by bacteria; and fungi were the weakest, which was corresponding to the habitat niche breadth. Microbial communities were affected by the deterministic processes with a modified stochasticity ratio (MST) value of 36.36%, whereas more stochasticity (MST = 49.71%) was raised in contaminated farmland than in undisturbed forestland (MST = 36.98%). The microbial function based on taxonomy-based inference indicated that nitrogen and carbon metabolisms associated with archaea and bacteria increased in contaminated farmland, as well as plant pathogen, wood saprotroph and endophyte related with fungi. The turnover of soil microbiomes was tightly correlated with As and Sb speciation. Collectively, this study reveals that the soil microbial survival strategies to As-Sb co-contamination after dam failure, providing guidance for the development of bioremediation and tailings management strategies.