Daily Survival Probability Research Articles

Previous reproductive success and environmental variation influence nest‐site fidelity of a subarctic‐nesting goose

AbstractNest‐site fidelity is a common strategy in birds and is believed to be adaptive due to familiarity with local conditions. Returning to previously successful nest sites (i.e., the win‐stay lose‐switch strategy) may be beneficial when habitat quality is spatially variable and temporally predictable; however, changes in environmental conditions may constrain dispersal decisions despite previous reproductive success. We used long‐term (2000–2017) capture‐mark‐reencounter data and hierarchical models to examine fine‐scale nest‐site fidelity of emperor geese (Anser canagicus) on the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta in Alaska. Our objectives were to quantify nest‐site dispersal distances, determine whether dispersal distance is affected by previous nest fate, spring timing, or major flooding events on the study area, and determine if nest‐site fidelity is adaptive in that it leads to higher nest survival. Consistent with the win‐stay lose‐switch strategy, expected dispersal distance for individuals that failed their nesting attempt in the previous year was greater (207.7 m, 95% HPDI: 151.1–272.7) than expected dispersal distance for individuals that nested successfully in the previous year (125.5 m, 95% HPDI: 107.1–144.9). Expected dispersal distance was slightly greater following years of major flooding events for individuals that nested successfully, although this pattern was not observed for individuals that failed their nesting attempt. We did not find evidence that expected dispersal distance was influenced by spring timing. Importantly, dispersal distance was positively related to daily survival probability of emperor goose nests for individuals that failed their previous nesting attempt, suggesting an adaptive benefit to the win‐stay lose‐switch strategy. Our results highlight the importance of previous experience and environmental variation for informing dispersal decisions of a long‐lived goose species. However, it is unclear if dispersal decisions based on previous experience will continue to be adaptive as variability in environmental conditions increases in northern breeding areas.

Mark-Release-Recapture Trial with Aedes albopictus (Diptera, Culicidae) Irradiated Males: Population Parameters and Climatic Factors.

Aedes albopictus is considered one of the major invasive species in the world and can transmit viruses such as dengue, Zika, or chikungunya. The Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) can be used to suppress the native populations of Ae. albopictus. Mark-release-recapture (MRR) studies are crucial to support the development of the release strategy during the SIT application. Meanwhile, weather conditions can affect the MRR trial's results and it is critical to understand the influence of climatic factors on the results. In October 2022, 84,000 irradiated sterile males were released for three consecutive weeks in Faro, Southern Portugal. Mosquitoes were recaptured by human landing collection (HLC) one, two, four, and six days after release. Generalized linear models with a negative binomial family and log function were used to estimate the factors associated with the number of recaptured mosquitoes, prevalence ratios, and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 84,000 sterile male mosquitoes were released, with 528 recaptured (0.8%) by HLC. The prevalence of recaptured mosquitoes was 23% lower when the wind intensity was moderate. Marked sterile males had an average median distance travelled of 88.7 m. The median probability of daily survival and the average life expectancy were 61.6% and 2.1 days, respectively. The wild male population estimate was 443.33 males/ha. Despite no statistically significant association being found with humidity, temperature, and precipitation, it is important to consider weather conditions during MRR trial analyses to obtain the best determinant estimation and a more efficient application of the SIT in an integrated vector management program.

Life expectancy of Anopheles funestus is double that of Anopheles arabiensis in southeast Tanzania based on mark-release-recapture method

Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles funestus sensu stricto mosquitoes are major East African malaria vectors. Understanding their dispersal and population structure is critical for developing effective malaria control tools. Three mark-release-recapture (MRR) experiments were conducted for 51 nights to assess daily survival and flight range of An. arabiensis and An. funestus mosquitoes in south-eastern, Tanzania. Mosquitoes were marked with a fluorescent dye as they emerged from breeding sites via a self-marking device. Mosquitoes were collected indoors and outdoors using human landing catches (HLC) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention light traps (CDC-LT). In total, 4210 An. arabiensis and An. funestus were collected with 316 (7.5%) marked and recaptured (MR). Daily mean MR was 6.8, standard deviation (SD ± 7.6) for An. arabiensis and 8.9 (SD ± 8.3) for An. funestus. Probability of daily survival was 0.76 for An. arabiensis and 0.86 for An. funestus translating into average life expectancy of 3.6 days for An. arabiensis and 6.5 days for An. funestus. Dispersal distance was 654 m for An. arabiensis and 510 m for An. funestus. An. funestus life expectancy was substantially longer than that of An. arabiensis. The MRR method described here could be routinely utilized when evaluating the impact of new vector control tools on mosquito survival.

Why hibernate? Tests of four hypotheses to explain intraspecific variation in hibernation phenology

Abstract Hibernation is a remarkable behaviour deployed by a diverse array of endotherms within many clades that greatly reduces metabolic need, but also has somatic costs. Hibernation in modern endotherms is often assumed to be an adaptation allowing animals to avoid extreme thermal conditions or food shortages in seasonal environments. However, many animals hibernate when foraging conditions are energetically profitable, suggesting other causal factors influence hibernation behaviour. Understanding the selection pressures responsible for intraspecific variation in the timing and duration of hibernation can help elucidate the relative evolutionary influences of the ultimate ecological causes of hibernation. We tested four previously proposed mechanistic hypotheses to explain intraspecific variation in hibernation phenology in the federally threatened northern Idaho ground squirrel (Urocitellus brunneus): (1) thermal tolerance, (2) food limitation, (3) predation avoidance and (4) sexual selection. The predation avoidance and sexual selection hypotheses received the most support, although we also found some support for the thermal tolerance and food limitation hypotheses. Heavy squirrels increased hibernation duration regardless of environmental conditions, as predicted solely by the predation avoidance hypothesis. Reproductive males emerged from hibernation earlier in spring than other sex–age classes, a pattern predicted by the sexual selection hypothesis. Temperature and food availability explained a much smaller amount of the variation in hibernation behaviour, only partially supporting predictions of the thermal tolerance and food limitation hypotheses. Our results indicate that animals navigate life‐history trade‐offs between energetic allocation to survival and reproduction via state‐dependent optimization of hibernation phenology. Consequently, any future environmental changes that influence body condition will have implications for population ecology and life‐history evolution of hibernating animals due to stark differences in daily survival probability between hibernation and the active season. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Nest traits and major flooding events influence nest survival of Emperor Geese while regional environmental variation linked to climate does not

Abstract The reproductive ecology of geese that breed in the Arctic and subarctic is likely susceptible to the effects of climate change, which is projected to alter the environmental conditions of northern latitudes. Nest survival is an important component of productivity in geese; however, the effects of regional environmental conditions on nest survival are not well understood for some species, including the Emperor Goose (Anser canagicus), a species of conservation concern that is endemic to the Bering Sea region. We estimated nest survival and examined how indices of regional environmental conditions, nest traits (nest age, initiation date, and maximum number of eggs in the nest), and researcher disturbance influenced daily survival probability (DSP) of Emperor Goose nests using hierarchical models and 24 years of nest monitoring data (1994–2017) from the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta (Y–K Delta) in western Alaska. Our results indicate that overall nest survival was generally high (µ = 0.766, 95% CRI: 0.655–0.849) and ranged from 0.327 (95% CRI: 0.176–0.482) in 2013 to 0.905 (95% CRI: 0.839–0.953) in 1995. We found that DSPs of nests were influenced by nest traits, negatively influenced by major tidal flooding events and by researcher disturbance, but were not influenced by regional indices of spring timing, temperature and precipitation during nesting, or fox and vole abundance on the Y–K Delta. However, the number of nests found each year was negatively related to our index of fox abundance, suggesting nests that failed as a result of fox predation may have never been discovered due to our limited nest-searching efforts during egg laying. Our results suggest that regional environmental variation had minimal influence on the nest survival of Emperor Geese, although major flooding events were important. Nevertheless, we suspect that within-year variation in local weather conditions and local abundance of predators and alternative prey may be important and should be considered in future studies.

Factors influencing survival of female eastern wild turkeys in northeastern South Dakota

AbstractPopulation growth can be sensitive to changes in survival rates for many avian species. Understanding sources of mortality, and how to mitigate negative effects on survival, can give managers insight into factors contributing to population change. Harvest trends of eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) in northeastern South Dakota suggest a decline in abundance. We investigated factors influencing survival of wild turkeys to identify potential factors contributing to the decline. We monitored 122 female wild turkeys using VHF radio transmitters from February 2017 to April 2019. Annual survival was 0.52 (95% CI = 0.33–0.64) for juvenile and 0.49 (95% CI = 0.23–0.63) for adult females, respectively. Daily survival probability was significantly lower during the spring (log‐odds ratio [LOR] = −0.9; 95% CI = −1.5–−0.2) and while a juvenile female was incubating (LOR = −0.67; 95% CI = −1.23–−0.09) but not while an adult female was incubating (LOR = −0.35; 95% CI = −0.92–0.24). Mammalian predation was the leading cause of mortality, and female wild turkeys were most vulnerable to predation during the spring while engaging in nesting and rearing of young broods. Wild turkeys were at risk for additional sources of mortality while incubating nests that were not contributors to mortality during other periods of the year, as deaths caused by haying equipment—the second greatest cause of mortality—only occurred while a female was incubating. Reducing female mortality due to haying, by delaying cutting, installing flushing bars on haying equipment, or increasing availability of suitable nesting cover types to reduce the probability of nesting in hayfields, could improve female survival. Annual survival during our study was about 16–29% lower than survival estimates from northeastern South Dakota during the 1990s, suggesting that reduced female survival could be contributing to the apparent decline in wild turkey abundance.

Evaluating risks associated with capture and handling of mule deer for individual‐based, long‐term research

AbstractCapture and handling techniques for individual‐based, long‐term research that tracks the life history of animals by recapturing the same individuals for several years has vastly improved study inferences and our understanding of animal ecology. Yet there are corresponding risks to study animals associated with physical trauma or capture myopathy that can occur during or following capture events. Rarely has empirical evidence existed to guide decisions associated with understanding the magnitude of capture‐related risks, how to reduce these risks when possible, and implications for mortality censoring and survival estimates. We used data collected from 2,399 capture events of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) via helicopter net‐gunning to compare daily survival probabilities within a 10‐week period centered on a capture event and evaluated how animal age, nutritional condition (body fat), and various handling methods influenced survival before, during, and following a capture event. Direct mortality resulting from capture efforts was 1.59%. Mean daily survival was 0.9993 ± 0.0001 (SE) during the 5‐week pre‐capture window, was depressed the day of capture at 0.9841 ± 0.0004, and rebounded to 0.9990 ± 0.0008 during the 5‐week post‐capture window. Neither capture nor handling had a detectable effect on post‐capture survival, including handling time ( = 13.30 ± 1.87 min), capture time of year (i.e., Dec or Mar), tooth extraction, and the number of times an animal had been recaptured (2–17 times). Although mortality rate was slightly elevated during capture (resulting from physical trauma associated with capture), age and nutritional condition did not influence the probability of mortality during a capture event. Following a capture event, nutritional condition influenced survival; however, that relationship was consistent with expected effects of nutritional condition on winter survival and independent of capture and handling. Overall survival rates 5 weeks before capture and 5 weeks after capture were not different. A specified window of time with depressed survival following capture and handling was not evident, which contradicts the implementation of a predetermined window often used by researchers and managers for censoring mortalities that occur after capture. Previous notions that censorship of all mortality data in the 2 weeks following capture is unwarranted and risks removal of meaningful data. With previous evidence guiding our protocols for capture (e.g., reduced chase time) and handling (e.g., temperature mitigation), low direct mortality and almost undetectable indirect mortality post capture reinforces the efficacy of helicopter net‐gunning for capture and recapture of mule deer in long‐term, individual‐based studies.

A sterile insect technique pilot trial on Captiva Island: defining mosquito population parameters for sterile male releases using mark–release–recapture

BackgroundThe sterile insect technique (SIT), which involves area-wide inundative releases of sterile insects to suppress the reproduction of a target species, has proven to be an effective pest control method. The technique demands the continuous release of sterilized insects in quantities that ensure a high sterile male:wild male ratio for the suppression of the wild population over succeeding generations.MethodsFor these releases, it is important to determine several ecological and biological population parameters, including the longevity of the released males in the field, the dispersal of the released males and the wild pest population size. The Lee County Mosquito Control District initiated a study in a 47-ha portion of Captiva Island (Florida, USA), an island with a total area of 230 ha, to define biological SIT parameters for Aedes aegypti (L.), an invasive disease-vectoring mosquito known to be difficult to control due to a combination of daytime biting activity, use of cryptic breeding habitats that are difficult to target with conventional night-time ultra-low volume methods, and emerging resistance to commonly used insecticides. Another goal was to assess patterns of dispersal and survival for laboratory-reared sterile Ae. aegypti males released over time in the pilot site. These parameters will be used to evaluate the efficacy of a SIT suppression program for Ae. aegypti on Captiva Island.ResultsOver the course of seven mark-release-recapture studies using single- and multiple-point releases, 190,504 sterile marked males were released, for which the recapture rate was 1.5% over a mean period of 12 days. The mean distance traveled by sterile males of the local strain of Ae. aegypti that has colonized Captiva Island was 201.7 m from the release point, with an observed maximum traveled distance of 404.5 m. The released sterile mosquitoes had a probability of daily survival of 0.67 and an average life expectancy of ~ 2.46 days.ConclusionsThese data together with the population size estimate and sterile:wild ratio provide a solid basis for planning the SIT operational phase which is aimed at mosquito population suppression.Graphical abstract

A Mark-Release-Recapture Study to Estimate Field Performance of Imported Radio-Sterilized Male Aedes albopictus in Albania.

The pathogen transmitting Aedes albopictus mosquito is spreading rapidly in Europe, putting millions of humans and animals at risk. This species is well-established in Albania since its first detection in 1979. The sterile insect technique (SIT) is increasingly gaining momentum worldwide as a component of area-wide-integrated pest management. However, estimating how the sterile males will perform in the field and the size of target populations is crucial for better decision-making, designing and elaborating appropriate SIT pilot trials, and subsequent large-scale release strategies. A mark-release-recapture (MRR) experiment was carried out in Albania within a highly urbanized area in the city of Tirana. The radio-sterilized adults of Ae. albopictus Albania strain males were transported by plane from Centro Agricoltura Ambiente (CAA) mass-production facility (Bologna, Italy), where they were reared. In Albania, sterile males were sugar-fed, marked with fluorescent powder, and released. The aim of this study was to estimate, under field conditions, their dispersal capacity, probability of daily survival and competitiveness, and the size of the target population. In addition, two adult mosquito collection methods were also evaluated: BG-Sentinel traps baited with BG-Lure and CO2, (BGS) versus human landing catch (HLC). The overall recapture rates did not differ significantly between the two methods (2.36% and 1.57% of the total male released were recaptured respectively by BGS and HLC), suggesting a similar trapping efficiency under these conditions. Sterile males traveled a mean distance of 93.85 ± 42.58 m and dispersed up to 258 m. Moreover, they were observed living in the field up to 15 days after release with an average life expectancy of 4.26 ± 0.80 days. Whether mosquitoes were marked with green, blue, yellow, or pink, released at 3.00 p.m. or 6.00 p.m., there was no significant difference in the recapture, dispersal, and survival rates in the field. The Fried competitiveness index was estimated at 0.28. This mark-release-recapture study provided important data for better decision-making and planning before moving to pilot SIT trials in Albania. Moreover, it also showed that both BG-traps and HLC were successful in monitoring adult mosquitoes and provided similar estimations of the main entomological parameters needed.

Effects of nest site selection and nest concealment on nest survival of Gosling's Bunting (Emberiza goslingi)

Selecting nest sites that provide access to resources and reduce predation risk is crucial to maximizing fitness in breeding birds. Therefore, understanding what habitat features influence nest site selection and nest success is a key component of avian conservation because it allows for identification and protection of habitat that will promote population growth. We examined drivers of nest success in Gosling's Bunting (Emberiza goslingi) by evaluating variables that influence nest site choice and nest survival at 23 nests and an equal number of random, paired, non-nesting locations in a tropical savannah landscape in north-central Nigeria. Gosling's Buntings exhibited a nonrandom nest-placement pattern. Nests were either on or in proximity to large rock surfaces with nesting probability increasing when the immediate nesting area (100 m radius around the nest) consisted of 30–60% bare rock. Compared to random non-nesting sites, buntings selected areas that were low in litter cover and/or had short grass height. Daily nest survival probability was high (0.96) and was positively associated with the proportion of bare rock around the nest but negatively with the amount of litter cover. Although hatching success was 56.9%, only 30% of all nesting attempts successfully fledged a chick suggesting that nest failure occurred mostly at advanced stages of nesting (nestling phase) when renesting is less likely. Nest survival was higher at low concealment, but only significantly higher than nest failure within a restricted concealment range of 45–54%. Our findings show that microhabitat features could benefit reproduction and daily nest survival. Furthermore, by linking nest-site attributes with fitness indices, we highlight the potential importance of fitness measures as a key component of habitat quality assessment for these buntings in tropical savannahs.

A dynamic model for individualized prognosis prediction in patients with avian influenza A H7N9.

BackgroundAvian influenza A H7N9 progresses rapidly and has a high case fatality rate. However, few models are available to predict the survival of individual patients with H7N9 infection in real-time. This study set out to construct a dynamic model for individual prognosis prediction based on multiple longitudinal measurements taken during hospitalization.MethodsThe clinical and laboratory characteristics of 96 patients with H7N9 who were admitted to hospitals in Jiangsu between January 2016 and May 2017 were retrospectively investigated. A random forest model was applied to longitudinal data to select the biomarkers associated with prognostic outcome. Finally, a multivariate joint model was used to describe the time-varying effects of the biomarkers and calculate individual survival probabilities.ResultsThe random forest selected a set of significant biomarkers that had the lowest classification error rates in the feature selection phase, including C-reactive protein (CRP), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), procalcitonin (PCT), base excess (BE), lymphocyte count (LYMPH), white blood cell count (WBC), and creatine phosphokinase (CPK). The multivariate joint model was used to describe the effects of these biomarkers and characterize the dynamic progression of the prognosis. Combined with the covariates, the joint model displayed a good performance in discriminating survival outcomes in patients within a fixed time window of 3 days. During hospitalization, the areas under the curve were stable at 0.75.ConclusionsOur study has established a novel model that is able to identify significant indicators associated with the prognostic outcomes of patients with H7N9, characterize the time-to-event process, and predict individual-level daily survival probabilities after admission.

Fine-scale plasticity in nest placement can compensate for poor quality junipers as nesting trees for gray vireos.

Understanding the interactions between behavior and habitat characteristics can have important implications for species of conservation concern. Gray vireos (Vireo vicinior) are one example of a species of conservation concern that is understudied in terms of nest survival probabilities and the habitat characteristics that influence them. Our objective was to determine if habitat features such as juniper density, juniper foliage density, or tree height influence nest survival probabilities, and if gray vireo nest placement can mitigate habitat risks. Based on previous work, we expected daily nest survival probabilities to be associated with nest height and surrounding vegetation. We monitored 89 nests in central New Mexico from 2016–2018 to estimate daily nest survival probabilities. We compared variation in nest placement, nest tree characteristics, and surrounding vegetation between failed and successful nests using logistic exposure models and Akaike Information Criteria. Daily and cumulative nest survival probability were 0.983 (95% CI [0.973–0.989]) and 0.575 (95% CI [0.444–0.702]), respectively. Top models predicting nest survival included a negative interaction between nest-tree foliage density and the distance of the nest from the edge of the nesting tree. This suggests that gray vireos can mitigate risks associated with low nest concealment by nesting closer to the interior of the nesting tree.

Effects of number of largemouth bass per live-well compared to environmental conditions on post release tournament survival

As live release black bass (Micropterus spp.) tournaments increase in popularity, stress associated with live-well confinement may result in increased mortality rates. Variation in number of bass in tournament angler live-wells is common due to a suite of factors (e.g., regulations, number of anglers per boat, angler success), but the effect on delayed tournament mortality relative to other environmental factors is unknown. Largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides were collected and tagged following tournament weigh-ins (n = 80) and monthly electrofishing events (n = 15) in 2018 and 2019 at Brushy Creek Lake, Iowa, USA. A Cormack-Jolly-Seber model in Program MARK was used to evaluate the duration of reduced post-tournament survival (0–7 day) and the effects of number of bass per live-well (1–15 individuals) compared to environmental covariates (air and water temperature) and bass total length on post-tournament survival. Models indicated bass survival was reduced for three days following tournament capture and was negatively related to water temperature, number of bass in live-well, and number of initial tournament mortalities. Largest effects of all covariates on tournament survival occurred at high water temperatures but were reduced at cooler water temperatures. Daily survival probability ranged from 0.9792 (95 % CI: 0.9757, 0.9822) at 5.71 °C to 0.8927 (95 % CI: 0.8720, 0.9103) at 28.79 °C on day of tournament capture. Survival also decreased from 0.9819 (95 % CI: 0.9592, 0.9921) with one bass in the live-well to 0.9632 (95 % CI: 0.4167, 0.9990) with fifteen bass in the live-well. However, the effect number of bass in a live-well has on overall tournament survival is likely minimal due to the infrequency ten or more bass were confined per live-well. Our study provides information on the effect number of bass in a live-well has on post-release tournament survival while providing management insights to improve post-tournament survival for recreational bass fisheries.

Descripción del nido y cuidado parental de Euphonia chlorotica (Aves: Fringillidae) en Santa Cruz, Bolivia

En este estudio se describen los primeros datos sobre aspectos reproductivos de Euphonia chlorotica en Bolivia mediante el monitoreo de un nido construido en un macetero colgante dentro una vivienda ubicada en la ciudad de Santa Cruz de la Sierra. El nido tenía forma globular con entrada lateral típica de la especie y fue construido en un lapso de 6 días en diciembre de 2019. Tres huevos de color blanquecino con manchas café oscuras fueron incubados durante 16 días exclusivamente por la hembra. Los pichones nacieron de forma sincrónica el 25 de enero de 2020 y luego de 16 días abandonaron el nido con sus plumajes totalmente desarrollados, excepto por el largo de las plumas de la cola, y con los picos aun con la comisura amarilla característica de los juveniles. La alimentación de los pichones fue realizada por ambos progenitores y la probabilidad de supervivencia diaria del nido y éxito de anidación fue del 100%, pese a encontrase en un ambiente altamente urbanizado.

Factors influencing productivity of eastern wild turkeys in northeastern South Dakota.

Population growth is highly sensitive to changes in reproductive rates for many avian species. Understanding how reproductive rates are related to environmental conditions can give managers insight into factors contributing to population change. Harvest trends of eastern wild turkey in northeastern South Dakota suggest a decline in abundance. We investigated factors influencing reproductive success of this important game bird to identify potential factors contributing to the decline. We monitored nesting rate, nest survival, renesting rate, clutch size, hatchability, and poult survival of 116 eastern wild turkey hens using VHF radio transmitters during the springs and summers of 2017 and 2018. Heavier hens were more likely to attempt to nest than lighter hens, and adult hens were more likely to renest than yearling hens. Nest survival probability was lowest in agricultural fields relative to all other cover types and positively related to horizontal visual obstruction and distance to the nearest road. Daily nest survival probability demonstrated an interaction between temperature and precipitation, such that nest survival probability was lower on warm, wet days, but lowest on dry days. Egg predation was the leading cause of nest failure, followed by haying of the nest bowl and death of the incubating hen. Poults reared by adult hens had a greater probability of survival than poults reared by yearling hens. Our estimate of survival probability of poults raised by yearling hens was low relative to other studies, which may be contributing to the apparent regional population decline. However, there is little managers can do to influence poult survival in yearling hens. Alternatively, we found nest survival probability was lowest for nests initiated in agricultural fields. Wildlife‐friendly harvesting practices such as delayed haying or installation of flushing bars could help increase productivity of eastern wild turkey in northeastern South Dakota.

Bad hare day: very low survival rate in brown hare leverets

Increased postnatal leveret mortality has been identified as the proximate factor explaining the decline of European brown hare Lepus europaeus populations in Europe. However, direct measurements of survival rates are non-existent as the leveret's cryptic behaviour makes them very difficult to study. Previously, leveret survival rates calculated using hunting bag statistics or capture–mark–recapture methods have been estimated to lie between 5% and 56% for the period between the start (January) and the end (October) of the breeding season. Such indirect approaches are known to yield inaccurate results compared to direct survival measurements. Hence, we applied novel detection methods and radio-tagged 63 wild-born leverets (aged between 1 and 22 days at capture) in two different populations in the Swiss lowlands. We located the tagged individuals daily to monitor individual fates and to directly calculate survival probabilities. We found that leveret survival is negatively influenced by precipitation. However, when leverets use edge habitats, survival is positively influenced. Daily survival rate and survival probability for the first month of life were found to be 0.94 and 0.18 respectively. Such low survival is alarming and to prevent further declines in populations of brown hares, it will be essential to mitigate against these excessive losses. Therefore, we suggest measures aimed at increasing the area of suitable habitat for leverets, where they can grow up safely (e.g. shelter from predators and bad weather).

The development and evaluation of a self-marking unit to estimate malaria vector survival and dispersal distance

BackgroundA clear understanding of mosquito biology is fundamental to the control efforts of mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria. Mosquito mark-release-recapture (MMRR) experiments are a popular method of measuring the survival and dispersal of disease vectors; however, examples with African malaria vectors are limited. Ethical and technical difficulties involved in carrying out MMRR studies may have held back research in this area and, therefore, a device that marks mosquitoes as they emerge from breeding sites was developed and evaluated to overcome the problems of MMRR.MethodsA modified self-marking unit that marks mosquitoes with fluorescent pigment as they emerge from their breeding site was developed based on a previous design for Culex mosquitoes. The self-marking unit was first evaluated under semi-field conditions with laboratory-reared Anopheles arabiensis to determine the marking success and impact on mosquito survival. Subsequently, a field evaluation of MMRR was conducted in Yombo village, Tanzania, to examine the feasibility of the system.ResultsDuring the semi-field evaluation the self-marking units successfully marked 86% of emerging mosquitoes and there was no effect of fluorescent marker on mosquito survival. The unit successfully marked wild male and female Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) in sufficiently large numbers to justify its use in MMRR studies. The estimated daily survival probability of An. gambiae s.l. was 0.87 (95% CI 0.69–1.10) and mean dispersal distance was 579 m (95% CI 521–636 m).ConclusionsThis study demonstrates the successful use of a self-marking device in an MMRR study with African malaria vectors. This method may be useful in investigating population structure and dispersal of mosquitoes for deployment and evaluation of future vector control tools, such as gene drive, and to better parameterize mathematical models.

Captive-rearing duration may be more important than environmental enrichment for enhancing turtle head-starting success

Raising captive animals past critical mortality stages for eventual release (head-starting) is a common conservation tactic. Counterintuitively, post-release survival can be low. Post-release behavior affecting survival could be influenced by captive-rearing duration and housing conditions. Practitioners have adopted environmental enrichment to promote natural behaviors during head-starting such as raising animals in naturalistic enclosures. Enrichment might be especially beneficial for animals held in captivity long-term to prevent degradation of adaptive behaviors. Using 32 captive-born turtles (Terrapene carolina), half of which were raised in enriched enclosures, we employed a factorial design to explore how enrichment and rearing duration affected post-release growth, behavior, and survival. Six turtles in each treatment (enriched or unenriched) were head-started for nine months (cohort one). Ten turtles in each treatment were head-started for 21 months (cohort two). At the conclusion of captive-rearing, turtles in cohort two were overall larger than cohort one, but unenriched turtles were generally larger than enriched turtles within each cohort. Once released, enriched turtles grew faster than unenriched turtles in cohort two, but we otherwise found minimal evidence suggesting enrichment affected post-release survival or behavior. Cohort two dispersed farther and had generally higher active season survival than cohort one (0.50 vs. 0.33). Body mass was positively associated with daily survival probability. Our findings suggest attaining larger body sizes from longer captive-rearing periods to enable greater movement and alleviate susceptibility to predation (the primary cause of death) could be more effective than environmental enrichment alone in chelonian head-starting programs where substantial predation could hinder success.

Quantifying the Local Effect of Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocks on the Persistence of Summer Hot and Dry Spells

AbstractThe persistence of heat waves and droughts is a key factor in determining their societal impact. Here, the local effect of atmospheric blocks on the persistence of summer hot and dry spells is quantified by comparing their climatological daily survival probability, that is, the probability to survive the next day, to their daily survival probability when they co‐occur with a block. The survival odds of hot spells are increased by more than 50% over most of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical land masses when co‐occurring with blocks. Dry spell persistence is also strongly increased by colocated blocks over western North America, Europe, and southern Russia, while it is significantly decreased over the western North Atlantic and the western North Pacific. These spatial differences in the effect of blocks on both spell types are explained by considering the spatially varying surface temperature and precipitation anomalies induced by the blocks.

Filling in the gaps in survival analysis: using field data to infer plant responses to environmental stressors.

Elucidating how organismal survival depends on the environment is a core component of ecological and evolutionary research. To reconcile high-frequency covariates with lower-frequency demographic censuses, many statistical tools involve aggregating environmental conditions over long periods, potentially obscuring the importance of fluctuating conditions in driving mortality. Here, we introduce a flexible model designed to infer how survival probabilities depend on changing environmental covariates. Specifically, the model (1) quantifies effects of environmental covariates at a higher frequency than the census intervals, and (2) allows partitioning of environmental drivers of individual survival into acute (short-term) and chronic (accumulated) effects. By applying our method to a long-term observational data set of eight annual plant species, we show we can accurately infer daily survival probabilities as temperature and moisture levels change. Next, we show that a species' water use efficiency, known to mediate annual plant population dynamics, is positively correlated with the importance of "chronic stress" inferred by the model. This suggests that model parameters can reflect underlying physiological mechanisms. This method is also applicable to other binary responses (hatching, phenology) or systems (insects, nestlings). Once known, environmental sensitivities can be used for ecological forecasting even when the frequency or variability of environments are changing.